Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water

[HapHazard]

Lucky indeed!

(my OCD dictates that voting bins should be equal in duration.)

This was a fun poll. I normally don't participate in them (even avoiding those threads), as I don't want to introduce any subconscious bias regarding my interpretation of the pressing issues here in the North.

[b_lumenkraft]

I lost. I assumed wrong physics.

Yes Hap, i agree. This was a cool poll.

Thank you, Tor, for initializing it.

[magnamentis]

before i forget it:

after or during each of those poll i strongly recommend the thread owners to use overlapping bins next time.

this poll showed very well why, i think it's obvious. one has to go for this or next week while in fact the uncertainty layed around the switch dates.

[Jim Hunt]

What does the team make of the latest NWS ice map?

[Sterks]

New thread:
Poll: Beaufort Polynya re-connecting to Bering Strait open water
This one is much more difficult.

[JayW]

What does the team make of the latest NWS ice map?

I think the winds made a good run at closing it back up, but fell short, at least so far.  The pack becoming more disperse is allowing the complex currents to reveal themselves.  I'd say a non icebreaker can still safely navigate, but others may have a different opinion on what's considered open.

Contrast boosted for detail

[magnamentis]

What does the team make of the latest NWS ice map?

we have to keep in mind that:

a) those drawings cover areas while in fact within those areas ice is not evenly distributed, there are ice-free paths and spots as well as ice-fields.

b) those maps are made for marine traffic and has the main purpose keep them at maximum safety.

c) a + b together mean that those maps are on the most cautious and consevative side and in fact one can sail through without any issues and with any kind of vessel/boat with caution.

d) sattelite images show exactly the above.

[Jim Hunt]

a) those drawings cover areas while in fact within those areas ice is not evenly distributed, there are ice-free paths and spots as well as ice-fields.

b) those maps are made for marine traffic and has the main purpose keep them at maximum safety.

The yellow area is up to 6/10 concentration, which is indeed "passable with caution". I'm not necessarily sure that applies to "any kind of vessel" though!

[be cause]

 Has the boat not already sailed ? .. b.c.

[gerontocrat]

Has the boat not already sailed ? .. b.c.

The jaws of fate may close again. The boat may meet an untimely end.

[Tor Bejnar]

I understand the boat sailed from Maryland, USA on June 13, 2011 (and returned 310 days later making only left turns):  I refer to Matt Rutherford on the St Brendan, an 8.2 m sail boat.  Everybody should watch the movie Red Dot on the Ocean.

[JayW]

Pack looks like it's retreating north once again, but a portion of fast ice just came loose.
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=jpss&z=5&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=1&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=northern_hemisphere&p%5B0%5D=band_i01&x=15501.2783203125&y=20923.083984375

[magnamentis]

a) those drawings cover areas while in fact within those areas ice is not evenly distributed, there are ice-free paths and spots as well as ice-fields.

b) those maps are made for marine traffic and has the main purpose keep them at maximum safety.

The yellow area is up to 6/10 concentration, which is indeed "passable with caution". I'm not necessarily sure that applies to "any kind of vessel" though!

ok, we can discuss the term "any kind" while very small boats should have no issues and larger boats should have some stability while a tourist river boat from "La Saine" in Paris perhaps won't make it, only that we probably won't find any of those non-sea-worthy boats or ships up there.

so my meaning applies to all kinds of boats an ships that dare to cruise the arctic in the first place.
hope that's more precise

[Peter Ellis]

so my meaning applies to all kinds of boats an ships that dare to cruise the arctic in the first place.
hope that's more precise

Well quite.  You wouldn't find anyone paddling a one-man craft in those waters, they'd freeze to death.  After all, you can't have your kayak and heat it.

[Jim Hunt]

You wouldn't find anyone paddling a one-man craft in those waters, they'd freeze to death.

You might if you looked hard enough. And how about a one woman craft in those waters?

http://anne-quemere.com/en/les-aleas-du-passage-du-nord-ouest/

[b_lumenkraft]

Oh cool. With solar cells.

That's especially clever up there in summer.

[binntho]

so my meaning applies to all kinds of boats an ships that dare to cruise the arctic in the first place.
hope that's more precise

Well quite.  You wouldn't find anyone paddling a one-man craft in those waters, they'd freeze to death.  After all, you can't have your kayak and heat it.

Isn't that what the Inuits have been doing these last 1000 years or more? I.e. paddling around in their one-man kajaks in Arctic waters?

The inuits apparently developed the technology necessary to live all-year-round in the high Arctic some 1000 - 4000 years ago (according to Jared Diamond, from memory), and one of their innovations was seal fishing from kajaks rowing between floes in semi-frozen waters.

[Jim Hunt]

Plenty of clear skies recently, revealing crumbling fast ice and clear water:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/06/facts-about-the-arctic-in-june-2019/#Jun-15

[ArcticMelt2]

The last three winters (from October to May) in Barrow are 6 degrees warmer than the average in the 20th century (-17 degrees Celsius).