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Tom_Mazanec

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AGW consequences where you live
« on: June 01, 2019, 03:33:06 PM »
Let this thread be for saying where you live, and you (or other people) say how this will be affected by AGW.
For example, I live in Twinsburg. I am far from the coastline, so I will not be affected by SLR. A hot summer afternoon might be 32 C, so it might rise to 35 C...uncomfortable, but livable. And I hate snow. It almost looks like AGW would improve my life.
What am I missing?
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pietkuip

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Re: AGW consequences where you live
« Reply #1 on: June 01, 2019, 04:13:40 PM »
When humidity is 100 %, 35 C leads to heat stroke and death within hours.

(I don't have a clue where Twinsburg is.)

Here in Southern Sweden, the greatest local risk is forest fire. Last year we sensed the smell, but it was 100 km away. Edit: and the pine beetle that Tim writes about further down is also a threat here. And the lack of rainfall in the summer.
« Last Edit: June 01, 2019, 05:41:58 PM by pietkuip »

Archimid

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Re: AGW consequences where you live
« Reply #2 on: June 01, 2019, 04:26:17 PM »
Quote
so it might rise to 35 C

Where do you get that number from? Why just 35C max Temp? Are you adding global average temperature to your local temp? That would be very wrong. A better approach would be to look up the max temperature and use that as the new average. Then take the old max record and increase it by few percents every year. The more to the North you are, the larger you increase the new max.

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Aluminium

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Re: AGW consequences where you live
« Reply #3 on: June 01, 2019, 04:33:04 PM »
The delta of the Neva River will be interesting for diving.

bbr2314

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Re: AGW consequences where you live
« Reply #4 on: June 01, 2019, 04:35:43 PM »
NYC's average & median snowfall totals have doubled since 2000. Also, temperatures have become especially warm relative to old normals in September, and precipitation has also increased fairly substantially across the board.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: AGW consequences where you live
« Reply #5 on: June 01, 2019, 05:00:42 PM »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: AGW consequences where you live
« Reply #6 on: June 01, 2019, 05:01:27 PM »
Interactive Map Shows Affect Of Climate Change On U.S. Cities In 2080
Quote
...He put the results on website that allows people to check how their nearest city could feel:

Quote
What will climate feel like in 60 years?
https://fitzlab.shinyapps.io/cityapp/
...
The 540 cities on average move 528 miles (850 kilometers) to the south climate-wise, if carbon emissions keep soaring. If the world cuts back, the cities move on average 319 miles (514 kilometers).

The city that moves the most is Wasilla, Alaska, which if emissions aren’t cut back could feel like eastern Wisconsin, 11 degrees warmer in the summer. It’s a change of about 2,720 miles (4,379 kilometers). ...
https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2019/02/12/interactive-map-climate-change-cities-in-2080/
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gerontocrat

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Re: AGW consequences where you live
« Reply #7 on: June 01, 2019, 05:13:48 PM »
Let this thread be for saying where you live, and you (or other people) say how this will be affected by AGW.
For example, I live in Twinsburg. I am far from the coastline, so I will not be affected by SLR. A hot summer afternoon might be 32 C, so it might rise to 35 C...uncomfortable, but livable. And I hate snow. It almost looks like AGW would improve my life.
What am I missing?
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Tim

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Re: AGW consequences where you live
« Reply #8 on: June 01, 2019, 05:19:18 PM »
Tom, you're looking at this wrong to think this is all just about adding a few degrees to your local temperature, such as 3C global average rise means 3C warmer in your area, what's the big deal, sounds nice.

It's about the knock on effects those seemingly slight changes have on earth systems. Let me tell you not about what people predict might happen, but what already has happened to my area, and some of the earth system changes that have happened to cause that, and it's all been very bad.

The 1C rise so far, so tiny it seems, has led to the arctic melting. That reduction in albedo and open water has actually led to the arctic beginning to warm faster than just the 1C global average. Knock on effect one.

This has led to the knock on effect two of a radical change in the way the jet stream behaves, because the jet stream was driven by what used to be a sharp difference in temperature between the cold arctic air and the warmer mid latitude air. Now that this differential has been reduced, the jet stream has slowed, causing massive changes to the amplitudes in it's sine wave pattern. Those amplitude waves are also getting stuck in one place for longer than they used to. This has all amounted, already ... not in the future ... to drastic changes in how weather manifests in the middle latitudes. The first picture I've attached is a picture to demonstrate this change. This is knock on effect two.

What's that jet stream change has caused for my area in southern Alberta Canada, is that these huge amplitude jet stream ridges have been reaching high up toward the arctic during our winters for the past ten years, and getting stuck that way for months and months on and, and continued to happen year after year after year. This virtually eliminated the cold winter temperatures for our area. When these ridges form, which have been called ridiculously resilient ridges, we don't just change by a 1C global average temperature, we go from sub freezing temperatures that used to be the norm in our area, it means we change by 20C, or even 30C from what used to be the norm, virtually eliminating what used to be 'winter' under the old way that the jet stream used to behave. These patterns now 'lock' and stay this way for months. No more winter here.

We would call this 'weather' ... but it has been drastically changed by climate change altering the jet stream. And this is all just caused from the 1C global average change so far.

Knock on effect three, and I'll group a few things together here, has been what this elimination of winter has done to our local ecology that evolved to be stable under the 'old' jet stream behavior, and can't handle these changes to the jet stream. The plants all come out of the ground and trees start to form buds during these extended winter warm periods of 20C to 30C warmer 'weather.' Then they die when the buckled jet finally moves off and the cold swoops back in. They weren't adapted to swing back and forth in these extreme shifts. The animals that hibernate will come out of hibernation, thinking it is spring, and find they are out of step now with long evolved symbiotic systems, and there will be no berries for them to eat because it isn't actually spring yet. They die, or wander into human settlements looking for food, because they are starving. Then they get shot.

This loss of winter has also led to another incredibly massive knock on effect too ... the pine beetles that had evolved to die back over a cold winter, now no longer die over the winter. This has led to them expanding in a way they never used to, to the point where they have ravished the boreal forests of western Canada to the point where they have killed half the forests already since the 1990's. I'll put a picture of this happening up as picture two. Let's call this knock on effect three.

For knock on effect four, I'll talk about the wildfires that are erupt from having all this dead wood standing around that has been killed by the pine beetle changes (all caused through these knock on effects of climate change in just a 1C changed world so far.) There are wildfires burning 600 miles north of me right now, 1000 km away, and in picture three I'll show you what my area looks like right now because of this. It's awful, and extremely hazardous to people's health, especially the very young and the very old. This is smoke, for the third summer in a row now. The last two years this was how our entire August looked like. It's almost approaching unlivable to spend a solid month like this, in smoke, every summer. This would be knock on effect four in my local example.


All this earth system change from just a 1C global average rise so far. 20C to 30C changes for my area in winter, not from the global average rise, but because of how it has changed the arctic, which changed the jet stream, which changed the weather, which changed the pine beetle, which changed the fire activity.

See what it's about? Tacking 3C onto your nice sunny weather is not at all what it's about. It's about changes to the sensitive earth system that even small changes to the gloabal average temperature produce. Remember, it's only a few degrees C cooler and you trigger a whole ice age. These tiny changes produce massive changes to the earth systems, including 'weather.' Think ... Mississippi flooding. That's a stuck pattern. California drought, that's a stuck pattern. Hurricanes dumping a deluge on North Carolina from a stuck jet stream ridge in the North Atlantic when it was expected to have turned north. That's a jet stream change. Think extremelt abnormal heat in Scandinavian countries. Jet stream changes.

That's what you're missing. You're looking at it wrong. You need to expand your learning of the impacts of climate change. Not just what people say might happen, but what even now already [has] happened. It's much more drastic than the way you've framed it. It's about changes to the entire system from tiny global average temperature changes, not about tacking a few degrees onto your nice summer afternoon temperature.


b_lumenkraft

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Re: AGW consequences where you live
« Reply #9 on: June 01, 2019, 05:20:40 PM »
Oh, where is life, there are quite severe consequences.

In numbers, this region has warmed by  1,3° C between 1881 and 2012. About 28% more precipitation in winter. Up to 25% less rain in summer. More heat waves. Stormes have increased in severity and frequency. 1991-2009 compared to 1961-1990, the winter is 13 days shorter.

This is Palatinate/Germany. This is a wine region. It's all vineyards here.

As early as 1990 winemaker realized that climate change would kill their traditional sorts of wine like Riesling and Dornfelder. Today it's all Cabernet Sauvignon, Merlot, and stuff like this that only grew in the southern parts of Europe only 20 years before. And they already have the plan to renew all crops within the next years (see photo attached).

No more wine from hundreds of years old vineyards.

Tim

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Re: AGW consequences where you live
« Reply #10 on: June 01, 2019, 05:20:53 PM »
Not sure why other pics didn't attach. Here's the changed jet stream. Red is the way the jet used to look, the blue shows the wild amplitude swings it now takes. Where it swings high, anomalous heat, where it swings down, anomalous cold. And it's getting stuck in these patterns longer, and repeating the patterns, because the Rossby waves (the amplitudes) are moving off slower due to the changes as well.
« Last Edit: June 01, 2019, 05:43:54 PM by Tim »

Tim

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Re: AGW consequences where you live
« Reply #11 on: June 01, 2019, 05:21:53 PM »
And here's some pine beetles killing entire swaths of forest. (The purple is pine beetles killing trees, the purple is an enzyme they release into the tree, which clogs up the tree's veins and starves the tree, killing it. Eventually all that purple turns into grey, dead trees.)
« Last Edit: June 01, 2019, 05:40:49 PM by Tim »

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: AGW consequences where you live
« Reply #12 on: June 01, 2019, 05:25:35 PM »
I 'liked' your post, Tim (even with two missing pictures  ;) ).
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Pmt111500

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Re: AGW consequences where you live
« Reply #13 on: June 01, 2019, 05:54:20 PM »
There's been a couple of mid size pest outbreaks here. Nothing like the US/Canadian ones with ash borers/pine bark beetles yet, which would precondition the forest fires on dryer years. Luckily this area is not projected to completely change in character so agricultural produce might actually increase on many years compared to current, but on other years it'd be rather dismal. Continued sea level rise at +3C will force us to relocate a large part of our harbour and eventually later relocate the city center c.10 km northward. By this time the place I live would be near the Baltic Shore and sometime later it'd become an island. Plenty of the fields in the area are also on the low lying land, started to make a map once with the +3C 20m (60ft) contour but stopped since i don't like depression.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: AGW consequences where you live
« Reply #14 on: June 03, 2019, 01:13:59 PM »
I don't live in Scotland, but maybe some of you do.
Here is a consequence I never would have thought of...endangering whisky:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/jun/02/scotland-whisky-climate-crisis-heatwave-distilleries-halt-production

EDIT: Here is another one I didn't think of...changing mercury levels in Wisconsin lake fish:
https://www.wisconsinwatch.org/2019/06/climate-change-causes-roller-coaster-mercury-levels-in-wisconsin-fish/
« Last Edit: June 10, 2019, 07:51:06 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: AGW consequences where you live
« Reply #15 on: August 14, 2019, 03:06:32 AM »
Northeast warming faster than rest of US, particularly in winter:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/national/climate-environment/climate-change-america/
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GoodeWeather

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Re: AGW consequences where you live
« Reply #16 on: August 14, 2019, 03:29:31 AM »
Northeast warming faster than rest of US, particularly in winter:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/national/climate-environment/climate-change-america/

As a New Jersey resident I have to call BS on this article.  First off more people live in the sector of the northeast than any other sector in the country, which would include more cities and more of a heat island effect...not really news.  Second their data only constricts to meteorological winter and not astronomical which would include part or match, and anyone living in the northeast will tell you that is to most variable month of the year (March 2016 was the coldest march on record for a lot of tristate areas).

I can not deny that winter is not what it used to be, but I'm unimpressed by the means they support it.  Seems just like stating an obvious fact.

bbr2314

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Re: AGW consequences where you live
« Reply #17 on: August 14, 2019, 03:31:43 AM »
Northeast warming faster than rest of US, particularly in winter:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/national/climate-environment/climate-change-america/

As a New Jersey resident I have to call BS on this article.  First off more people live in the sector of the northeast than any other sector in the country, which would include more cities and more of a heat island effect...not really news.  Second their data only constricts to meteorological winter and not astronomical which would include part or match, and anyone living in the northeast will tell you that is to most variable month of the year (March 2016 was the coldest march on record for a lot of tristate areas).

I can not deny that winter is not what it used to be, but I'm unimpressed by the means they support it.  Seems just like stating an obvious fact.
Yes, this article is fake news and the data is broad and incorrect. It also goes back to 1895 so it should be no surprise that the NYC heat island is visible on the map (as are heat islands elsewhere).

Klondike Kat

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Re: AGW consequences where you live
« Reply #18 on: August 14, 2019, 05:37:47 AM »
This study found the northeast warming more than the average, but the rate is not the highest.  Winter has experienced the greatest warming and summers the least, which is to be expected. Average warming has been driven most by changes during the coldest periods, nighttime and winter.  Extreme temperatures have declined, as expected also, with a larger change during winter.

https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/6/

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Re: AGW consequences where you live
« Reply #19 on: August 14, 2019, 02:41:40 PM »
Let this thread be for saying where you live, and you (or other people) say how this will be affected by AGW.

Truth is, nobody knows the future local effects. All we know is what has happened so far. In my country (C.Europe), all seasons are up cca. 2 C vs 1950-1980, there is a little bit more precipitation, less severe winters, longer growing season, more mediterranean/subtropical species grown (figs, oriental persimmon, kiwi). No serious heatrecords but many very warm (30+ C) summer days. Salad greens, brassicas etc often survive without protection until Christmas -unusual.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: AGW consequences where you live
« Reply #20 on: August 14, 2019, 03:39:38 PM »
Let this thread be for saying where you live, and you (or other people) say how this will be affected by AGW.

Truth is, nobody knows the future local effects. All we know is what has happened so far. In my country (C.Europe), all seasons are up cca. 2 C vs 1950-1980, there is a little bit more precipitation, less severe winters, longer growing season, more mediterranean/subtropical species grown (figs, oriental persimmon, kiwi). No serious heatrecords but many very warm (30+ C) summer days. Salad greens, brassicas etc often survive without protection until Christmas -unusual.

So you are over the UN’s upper limit already when you figure 1950-1980 was not “pre-industrial”.
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El Cid

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Re: AGW consequences where you live
« Reply #21 on: August 14, 2019, 04:22:27 PM »
There is a misunderstanding about the 2 C limit. 2 C means 2 C on average , globally, land and sea together.

As the NH warms faster than Sh, and land warms faster than the oceans, it means that 2 C globally is probably 4 C on NH midlatitude land.

You can see it on this chart. Although we have warmed "only" 0,79 C globally, basically all NH midlatitude land has warmed 1-2 C. In our case, or Scandinavia it is almost 2 C, much of European Russia is also close to 2 C. The SH is warming much slower as you can see, same is true for oceans. So a rule-of-thumb is that NH midlatitude land probably warms 2 times as much as global average, and the Arctic is likely 4 times as much.