Worst consequence of AGW

[Tom_Mazanec]

What effect of AGW is the worst specific one of all?
Increased heat?
Decreased food production?
Sea level rise?
Weather disasters?
New pandemic potentials?
Climate Refugees?
Trigger for War?
Something else?

[be cause]

increased threads ? .. b.c.

[b_lumenkraft]

The upcoming massive growth of refugees.

Honestly, i'm sure mankind could theoretically cope with climate change just fine if we would act as one.

But we will use resources to keep people out who flee their land. We will build bombs and guns and walls and fences in order to preserve what's ours.

[Tony Mcleod]

Weather disasters leading to decreased food production causing unprecedented famine, probably in South and East Asia and Africa where so many billions rely on regular monsoon rains to subsist.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Tony, I knew about Asia, but does Africa have monsoons too?
And what does AGW do to monsoons?

[crandles]

Tony, I knew about Asia, but does Africa have monsoons too?
And what does AGW do to monsoons?

http://www.clivar.org/african-monsoon

[Tom_Mazanec]

End of global civilization by 2050:
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/597kpd/new-report-suggests-high-likelihood-of-human-civilization-coming-to-an-end-in-2050?utm_source=reddit.com
EDIT: more o this:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12237332

[magnamentis]

What effect of AGW is the worst specific one of all?
Increased heat?
Decreased food production?
Sea level rise?
Weather disasters?
New pandemic potentials?
Climate Refugees?
Trigger for War?
Something else?

thanks for spamming the forum with ever new threads that make the list of last unread longer and longer until we lose track of what is really interesting because time is an asset that's not unlimited.

[b_lumenkraft]

Magnamentis, if you look carefully, you'll see that some of the threads Tom started are actually quite popular even though they all have this kind of post in them you just posted.

What is going on here? I honestly don't understand that.

If a new thread is useless and unpopular it will get buried by other topics anyway. It takes almost no resources to open a new thread. It's a link in a database, some bits and bytes, that's all. No harm is done by opening a new thread.

Calling someone a spammer, on the other hand, is doing harm. That's a person you are talking to.

So, can we stop the bullying already?

[Tom_Mazanec]

A few days ago I was in a rush and forgot the threads I should have used. I apologized to never, and he forgave me.

[nanning]

I like Neven, he is one of the Best consequences of AGW.

[Rich]

Worst consequences of AGW is young people growing up knowing what's coming.

They know they're screwed. Twice this year over a million kids skipped school on the same day and boomers yawn at them.

A century ago, the Nazi's used Zyklon B to kill with indifference.

American's are the modern analog for the Nazi's.

[bbr2314]

Worst consequences of AGW is young people growing up knowing what's coming.

They know they're screwed. Twice this year over a million kids skipped school on the same day and boomers yawn at them.

A century ago, the Nazi's used Zyklon B to kill with indifference.

American's are the modern analog for the Nazi's.

All Westerners are the modern analogue if that's your gripe. It's not like Europeans or Australians or the Japanese do much better. In fact Canada and Australia are the worst of all per capita.

And this is why noone cares if a million children use CC to skip out on school. Do you think they actually have any idea what they are "protesting" or do they want to skip school? Greta Thurnberg is a tool being used by her celebrity mother to further her own image. Greta is a dolt (sorry, it's true).

You can rant and rave about "Climate change will do XYZ!" but unfortunately none of the aforementioned individuals have a basic grasp on impending changes, or anywhere near the knowledge of even the entry-level posters of this forum. And the advanced posters here could tell you that we are completely screwed with or without action due to what's inevitably impending when SO2 and aerosols reduce.

So, you can call Americans Nazis and sound uneducated, or you can say that wealthy and middle class humans are responsible (and have always been responsible) for wreaking death and destruction on the poor, a trend which will only worsen as resource disparities continue to grow as poor populations continue to balloon unchecked in developing regions.

[b_lumenkraft]

Worst consequences of AGW is young people growing up knowing what's coming.

Please, don't take what i'm about to say as an attempt to downplay this important point.

As a young boy, when i learned about atomic bombs, i was pretty sure, i would die soon by nuclear warfare. This is just around the corner where Ramstein is. Everyone in Germany in the cold war knew this airbase would be the first Russian target for sure. And even if it wasn't, we would have been so fucked here between the lines... The sward of Damocles over our heads all the time, everywhere. Still, people did what they did, lived their lives. Because there was nothing we could possibly do (we thought).

Today's situation is different in a way that we know that we can do something against the pending doom.

[b_lumenkraft]

Greta Thurnberg is a tool being used by her celebrity mother to further her own image

Bbr, when was the last time you thought telling the truth about climate change would be a great business model?

[bbr2314]

Greta Thurnberg is a tool being used by her celebrity mother to further her own image

Bbr, when was the last time you thought telling the truth about climate change would be a great business model?

I mean, this is kind of a non sequitur? My point is that even the supposed activists are completely misinformed and serve as propaganda for other means vs. Acting as agents of actual change or informed discourse. I would actually go so far as to say the ASIF is the only location on planet Earth where legitimate discourse can be had.

[Tom_Mazanec]

In that case, bbr2314, I'm glad I found this site!

[SteveMDFP]

  Do you think they actually have any idea what they are "protesting" or do they want to skip school? Greta Thurnberg is a tool being used by her celebrity mother to further her own image. Greta is a dolt (sorry, it's true).

You can rant and rave about "Climate change will do XYZ!" but unfortunately none of the aforementioned individuals have a basic grasp on impending changes, or anywhere near the knowledge of even the entry-level posters of this forum. 

I think you're short-changing Greta and the XR movement.  They've brought the issue of climate change to public attention more assertively than anyone since Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth.  I think Thurnberg is a more credible and effective spokesperson than Gore, in fact.

Gore is no climate scientist either.  But what credentialled expert has had comparable impact on public awareness?

Public protests and civil disobedience are central to effecting social change.  They are, I believe, the most effective tools.

[b_lumenkraft]

Do you not find it a little bit odd, that you never had the idea of profiting from making climate change public yourself, yet you think others do it for exactly this reason (without any argument underlining this mind you). I think the motive you are assuming here, is some BS you overheard somewhere. Seems like you never had a second thought about that.
 

[Rich]

Worst consequences of AGW is young people growing up knowing what's coming.

Please, don't take what i'm about to say as an attempt to downplay this important point.

Today's situation is different in a way that we know that we can do something against the pending doom.

Yet, you are downplaying it.

According to an article I read on Skeptical Science, it takes 35-40 years for the oceans to achieve just 60% of an equilibrium to an increase in CO2 levels.

What we are experiencing today is just scratching the surface of what has been committed to.

You and I both grew up with nuclear bomb awareness. It was binary and dependent upon powerful people willing to commit suicide. Mutually assured destruction was an effective deterrent and I didn't lose any sleep over nukes.

With climate change, the bombs have already been released and there is no anti-missile defense.

[be cause]

 .. seeing Greta belittled on ASIF .. b.c.

     ffs ..

[Rich]

Of course, America isn't the only country with above average GHG emissions.

But we have the power to force change and we don't. We have the $800 billion military that enforces the fossil fuel hegemony. We are alone among the Western nation's in having 1/4 of our voters who are religious fundamentalists. We have the climate denying POTUS.

We are now the biggest producer of fossil fuels. We are one of only two nations to reject the Paris Accord. Even the Democratic leaders like Pelosi and Biden are weak on climate.

Plenty of bad guys in the climate change story....but the US is by far the worst.

The death toll from environmental collapse is going to dwarf what WW II brought. My country is at the epicenter of that genocide.


 

[bbr2314]

Do you not find it a little bit odd, that you never had the idea of profiting from making climate change public yourself, yet you think others do it for exactly this reason (without any argument underlining this mind you). I think the motive you are assuming here, is some BS you overheard somewhere. Seems like you never had a second thought about that.

How would you know I haven't attempted to profit from making climate change public?

My assumed motive re: Thurnberg is not BS, but you are free to disagree with me!

My two passions are buildings and weather. I have monetized the former, but not the latter, because it is enjoyable to me to post here and interact with an established community vs. starting my own website / etc. I also think monetizing a hobby can diminish its enjoyability because it becomes about money (in part or in full) instead of pure enjoyment.

And, be cause: why should anyone here respect Greta? Because she skips school and encourages others to do so, or because she spouts BS demands that will make no difference while enjoying the benefits derived from Scandinavian society, which is entirely built on slave labor from abroad and fossil fuels / dirty mining etc at home? I know people like to look at Norway and Sweden as bastions of the progressive movement but it is easy to ignore the damage wrought by Norwegian petroleum and Swedish manufacturing when the negative externalities only occur elsewhere, while the alleged positives (a social welfare state that results in mindless drone citizens) are what's talked and bantered about on the interwebs.

I repeat: it is my opinion that Thurnberg is one such mindless drone, a tool of the capitalist elites in Sweden and elsewhere (including her mother) that acts as a mindless figure "against climate change" while simultaneously belonging to a culture that is most definitely responsible for a very significant portion of per capita emissions, even if they are hidden by offshoring all negative externalities.

[bbr2314]

Of course, America isn't the only country with above average GHG emissions.

But we have the power to force change and we don't. We have the $800 billion military that enforces the fossil fuel hegemony. We are alone among the Western nation's in having 1/4 of our voters who are religious fundamentalists. We have the climate denying POTUS.

We are now the biggest producer of fossil fuels. We are one of only two nations to reject the Paris Accord. Even the Democratic leaders like Pelosi and Biden are weak on climate.

Plenty of bad guys in the climate change story....but the US is by far the worst.

The death toll from environmental collapse is going to dwarf what WW II brought. My country is at the epicenter of that genocide.

I disagree, I think Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, Europe, in fact every developed nation is equally to blame. If the US tamped on its fossil fuel output there would be riots in the streets in Europe and elsewhere. You can see this dichotomy in the politics section of this board where posters like Lurk say the entire would should have a middle class standard of living without realizing that said standard of living is single-handedly responsible for the destruction of the planet.

The problem is not the US, or China, or Russia, or France, or Saudi Arabia. The problem is the global middle class, and if you actually want to save the planet, it would have to be obliterated (which would mean no more posting on the forum for you, sorry!).

[vox_mundi]

Human Civilization Faces "Existential Risk" by 2050 According to New Australian Climate Change Report 
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/new-climate-change-report-human-civilization-at-risk-extinction-by-2050-new-australian-climate/



A new report by Australian climate experts warns that "climate change now represents a near- to mid-term existential threat" to human civilization. In this grim forecast — which was endorsed by the former chief of the Australian Defense Force — human civilization could end by 2050 due to the destabilizing societal and environmental factors caused by a rapidly warming planet.

The report, entitled "Existential climate-related security risk: A scenario approach," lays out a future where society could collapse due to instability set off by migration patterns of billions of people affected by drought, rising sea levels, and environmental destruction.

"Climate-change impacts on food and water systems, declining crop yields and rising food prices driven by drought, wildfire and harvest failures have already become catalysts for social breakdown and conflict across the Middle East, the Maghreb and the Sahel, contributing to the European migration crisis," the report said.

The new policy briefing is written by David Spratt, Breakthrough’s research director and Ian Dunlop, a former senior executive of Royal Dutch Shell who previously chaired the Australian Coal Association. Retired Admiral Chris Barrie—Chief of the Australian Defence Force from 1998 to 2002 and former Deputy Chief of the Australian Navy—endorsed the report and wrote a forward to it.

"After nuclear war, human induced global warming is the greatest threat to human life on the planet," Barrie wrote.

Using a worst-case scenario existential risk analysis, Spratt and Dunlop depict humanity falling into ruin under an additional 2 degrees Celsius of warming — a threshold scientists say the world is heading towards if current trends continue. In their scenario, "tipping points" occur when humanity fails to institute carbon emission reforms in the 2020s and 2030s. This creates a "hothouse" effect on Earth, leading to rapidly rising sea levels set off by melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and "widespread permafrost loss and large-scale Amazon drought and dieback."

As a result, the authors say, some of the world's most populated cities — Mumbai, Jakarta, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Hong Kong, Ho Chi Minh City, Shanghai, Lagos, Bangkok and Manila — would have to be abandoned due to their location in the tropical zone.

The assessment ends with a harrowing conclusion: "More than a billion people may need to be relocated and in high-end scenarios, the scale of destruction is beyond our capacity to model, with a high likelihood of human civilization coming to an end."

The report also paints a grim picture in terms of national security, with extreme climate conditions and the disruption of huge populations placing "the internal cohesion of nations ... under great stress."

"The flooding of coastal communities around the world, especially in the Netherlands, the United States, South Asia, and China, has the potential to challenge regional and even national identities," the report warns. "Armed conflict between nations over resources, such as the Nile and its tributaries, is likely and nuclear war is possible. The social consequences range from increased religious fervor to outright chaos."

https://www.breakthroughonline.org.au/papers
https://apo.org.au/node/239741 

----------------------

The 'Great Dying' Nearly Erased Life On Earth. Scientists See Similarities To Today 
https://www.npr.org/2019/06/04/729341362/the-great-dying-nearly-erased-life-on-earth-scientists-see-similarities-to-today

There was a time when life on Earth almost blinked out. The "Great Dying," the biggest extinction the planet has ever seen, happened some 250 million years ago and was largely caused by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Now scientists are beginning to see alarming similarities between the Great Dying and what's currently happening to our atmosphere. ...

[Archimid]

The worst consequence of climate change? The end of modern civilization and the reduction of the population to historical levels or less. There will be millions of humans around, but they won't be living. They will be surviving on an alien planet. But that only happens if the Arctic collapses and we are as unprepared as we are now. If we mount serious response in time we can completely avoid apocalypse and the opposite will come true. A new era of prosperity awaits.

I would like to answer a spin of this question. What is the most scary consequence of climate change? Heatwaves. Particularly after ASI is gone in the summer, deep inside the continents. The temperatures will rise to levels that no hominid have ever experienced in nature. Powerstations will blow up, rods will melt, metal will buckle. Very few people will survive.

Sure hurricanes and floods can be scary, but at least they are fast. Heatwaves may last weeks. I find it terrifying.

[oren]

The worst short-term consequence of climate change is the rise of the Internet troll as a full-time job  Thank godNeven for keeping this place clean.

[Wherestheice]

The worst consequence of climate change? The end of modern civilization and the reduction of the population to historical levels or less. There will be millions of humans around, but they won't be living. They will be surviving on an alien planet. But that only happens if the Arctic collapses and we are as unprepared as we are now. If we mount serious response in time we can completely avoid apocalypse and the opposite will come true. A new era of prosperity awaits.

I would like to answer a spin of this question. What is the most scary consequence of climate change? Heatwaves. Particularly after ASI is gone in the summer, deep inside the continents. The temperatures will rise to levels that no hominid have ever experienced in nature. Powerstations will blow up, rods will melt, metal will buckle. Very few people will survive.

Sure hurricanes and floods can be scary, but at least they are fast. Heatwaves may last weeks. I find it terrifying.

If we take unprecedented actions, I can't say I agree that there will be a "new era of prosperity". We've already baked in enough crap for things to get worse than they are now

[nanning]

@Archimid
Just for the meaning of "Worst", I'll take it a bit further: >90% of life extinct; extinction of humans; end of the cenozoic (age of mammals) and a very very long time for biodiversity to build up again; for the now deciduous tree-of-life to regrow a canopy. And of course global nuclear contamination.
Now I am sad.

[Gray-Wolf]

Greta & XR have done , in a matter of months, what many of us posting here fought hard to try & achieve over 2 decades of attempting to raise awareness/battle deniers.

I am content they arrived on the scene & have spoken , in my language, about the scale of the threats now descending on us all.

If the elites are involved here it is in the kind of belittling of these guys efforts we see above!

Effective action means reigning in/ending global Capitalism in its current form & that includes 'money'

I'd always thought that the paid deniers were trying merely to enable the FF industry to maximise their profits. Now I see it was to push back the inevitable move towards a more 'socialist in outlook' planet

This negates the wealth & power the elites currently wield

Thing is Global Socialism had already begun to gain ground both in the U.S. & Europe ( and again the MSM neglected to report/inform on that cultural shift among both young and old.......odd that eh?) so the onset of global calls for realistic action to combat our climate crisis signals the end game for the elite in their current form?

There is no accident in the rate of increase in inequality this past 20 years as the global elite try to hoover up all of the last bits of available wealth from nation states , the poor & middle classes in preparation for their 'bug out' as we face a climate crisis that would have been avoided had we acted 30 years ago ( even 20 years ago when the elites made their decision to let us burn?) but we all saw what we saw. A concerted effort to pooh pooh any person raising climate concerns and the installation of the 'false consensus' which demanded equal representation for denier & scientist alike.

We either 'arise like lions from sleep' (200 yr anniversary of 'Peterloo' this year) or we are done.

[Rich]

I give Greta and XR a ton of credit. But let's also recognize that the IPCC SR 1.5 was probably an essential ingredient to their going viral.

[bbr2314]

I love how the rise of the global middle class is completely ignored in the above post as if the consumption habits of the elite, who have always been very limited and have always consumed as they do today, are something new. The global middle class is to blame, if this is not apparent to you its because you are middle class and would rather point fingers and blame "elites" instead of recognizing this crisis actually began with the French Revolution.

[bbr2314]

Also, there have always been elites and there will always be elites. They are crucial for society to function. The same cannot be said for the global middle class. Dreams of socialist revolution will end in a reality of bloodshed for its perpetrators, but maybe that is necessary to save the planet. 

[b_lumenkraft]

They are crucial for society to function.

Thanks for the good laugh Bbr. 

[bbr2314]

They are crucial for society to function.

Thanks for the good laugh Bbr. 

Thanks for providing an example of a proletariat utopia without a functioning elite beyond the end game of Marxist theory 

[b_lumenkraft]

And you sir. Thanks for providing an example of gentry bootlicking.

[Gray-Wolf]

They are crucial for society to function.

Thanks for the good laugh Bbr. 

For those trapped in , or clinging to, the current system their only faux comfort comes from the old 'if you shared all global wealth out it would still end up in the same hands' BS

There is a mentally deficient side to most who profit under this system and the proof of such is the state we find ourselves in today and the continued obfuscation of those who wield global Capital?

Change is coming whether we like it or not and our choice is either to sycophant to the elite in the hope that they will change their spots and be beneficent toward the brown nosers or we organise , unify and take matters into our own hands.

It will necessitate great changes for those who hoard Global Capital though, but then so will a dying Planet whether they believe it or not!

[Archimid]

Greta shames us all with her bravery and determination. She talks the talk and walks the walk. If we had more people like her we would have solve this shitty problem already.

[Tom_Mazanec]

A survey of what rapid AGW is doing:
https://truthout.org/articles/arctic-is-thawing-so-fast-scientists-are-losing-their-measuring-tools/

EDIT: AGW makes war more likely (remember the 10,000 nukes?):
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/climate-change-helping-world-less-peaceful-global-peace-041000393.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZGFpbHljbGltYXRlLm9yZy8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAHZshLpdH0-URlwR437YvRxDNef4ThkwJfrb8ugGfZ1Pmr4wUMW1PebZ8nORR0zp4aB4Wu6wJ4ILYwqI7LMmWYam5brHisGnTaqqP-FVQlbnosemjohRiDmOl6drO1RaI2m7kqad3DZlzl6O-QdPe3RAc_NalLEe89z0nnDx9FfE

EDIT 2:
No government will survive what is coming after 5 more years of BAU:
https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/a28102591/india-drought-chennai-climate-change-five-years-transform/

[Ktb]

The worst consequence will be utter and complete collapse of human civilization as we know it.

And to some above replies: redistribution of wealth still keeps society in the game/prison of capitalism. The bars must be broken and humanity set free in order to save the earth and ourselves.

[Tom_Mazanec]

I vote food. That is what will first hit almost everyone. Maybe when this year’s harvest comes in very low and food prices soar.

[Pikk_Ax]

The rest of the plants and animals on the planet will pay for our mistakes.

[nanning]

I vote potable water.

Greta shames us all with her bravery and determination. She talks the talk and walks the walk. If we had more people like her we would have solve this shitty problem already.

People like her have been murdered throughout history. To be like that has not been a good survival strategy. Maybe that's why there are so few like her.

[El Cid]

I love how the rise of the global middle class is completely ignored in the above post as if the consumption habits of the elite, who have always been very limited and have always consumed as they do today, are something new. The global middle class is to blame, if this is not apparent to you its because you are middle class and would rather point fingers and blame "elites" instead of recognizing this crisis actually began with the French Revolution.

Totally true!

However the global middle class is not "us" (most of the posters are from developed countries here), because they are from India, Uganda, China, etc whose parents 50 years ago were subsistence farmers, but now they want to live like the US middle class they see in the movies: house in the suburbia, 1-2 cars, etc. Of course, this can not happen, the Earth's resources are not enough for that. So it is the developed countries' population who will need to heavily scale back its consumption of everything! Yes, it is you. All of you. And me...

[VideoGameVet]

I love how the rise of the global middle class is completely ignored in the above post as if the consumption habits of the elite, who have always been very limited and have always consumed as they do today, are something new. The global middle class is to blame, if this is not apparent to you its because you are middle class and would rather point fingers and blame "elites" instead of recognizing this crisis actually began with the French Revolution.

I disagree with this.  Here are some examples why:

1. FF and Auto industry fighting electric car initiatives.  The middle class can't buy EV's if they aren't available.  In the 1990's California EV initiative was overturned due to industry pressure.  Many of of the EV's that were available (the NiMh GM EV1 and Toyota RAV4 EV) had greater range capacity then the largest selling EV of the day, the Nissan Leaf (prior to the 2018 revision).

2. Subsidies to the FF industry.  Once again a case of using $$$ to influence policy.

3. Efforts by 'elites' to block mass transit projects.   See:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/19/climate/koch-brothers-public-transit.html

There's more of course.  You could go back to the destruction of Los Angeles' "Red Cars" in the 1950's or even Robert Moses' influence in NYC in the 1930's.

[TerryM]

Greatest fear(s)


Electrical Grid Collapse -> Communication Grid Collapse - Computers Crash -> Idiocracy without Wikipedia -> Transportation Collapse -> Famine -> Governmental Collapse -> Mad Max


I left out the untended Nuclear Power Stations, the unmanned dams & the well armed but unfed police and soldiers.


Terry

[magnamentis]

the worst consequence that is certain and neither guesswork nor a lottery, is
Sea Level Rise by > 60m and hence inundation of most major cities world wide and a huge amount of arable land.

many will probably prefer to be dead than to live with those consequences to the immobile majority.

with immobile i mean no money, no job, no transport etc.

[sidd]

Re: 60 m SLR

WAIS and GIS south domw are probably destabilized. It is not clear to me that EAIS is.

sidd

[Tor Bejnar]

Worst consequences?  Dying, knowing I couldn't do anything effective significant to confront AGW, and I have kids who will see worse than what I'll see.
 

[magnamentis]

Worst consequences?  Dying, knowing I couldn't do anything effective significant to confront AGW, and I have kids who will see worse than what I'll see.
 

there we differ, death is a fact and i don't care much  about that, live with pain, miserable and other kinds of suffering are much worse for my type of person

re 60m SLR

i wrote > 60m not = 60m just to make that clear and it does not much matter wether it will be 54 or 93 or any other number in that region, the effect will be catastrophic either way.

also i did not mention any time frame, can be much quicker and more abrupt than many of us think but too many unknowns to predict anything reliably.