Worst consequence of AGW

[Tor Bejnar]

Tom,
Thanks for putting your posts (or at least most of them) in one place (here).  It has to be easier on you, too!  If a post 'really belongs' someplace else, though (like a great picture of Arctic ice), put it where it 'belongs', if you like.
Tor

[Tom_Mazanec]

Not only is it easier, but it gives me more time for what Neven calls "interesting discussions".

[blumenkraft]

Tom, i noticed you are interacting more recently. I like that. Always nice to hear about your view on things.

[nanning]

^^
Seconded

[RealityCheck]

'Thirded'
I think collecting such items under this thread's banner is actually very useful. The material is certainly relevant, and serves as a fast way to appreciate the scale and variety of impacts as they affect real people. I also appreciate the more focussed approach for contributions on other threads. Keep those fast fingers flying here for us.. 😁

[wili]

I'm not sure whether it was Tom or someone else that first posted this, but I'd like to hear some of Tom's reflections on it:

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/climate-change-poll_n_5d87ab74e4b0849d472adbb3

Every Group Except Older Republicans Is Concerned About Climate Change
Most Americans want the U.S. to take a global leadership role on climate change, but only about a quarter think the country is doing so.

As an older (I assume, perhaps wrongly?) Republican who is bucking this trend, perhaps you could give us insights into why so many from this segment seem so intent on ignoring science. Thanks ahead of time.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Well, I was born March 5,1958. I am certainly not a younger anything.
I am now an ex-Republican, partly because of this but even more because of the GOP war-on-the-poor.
I have been a lover of science all my life. When I was a toddler I insisted on getting toy ray guns. My coin bank was a rocket which shot the coins into the slot. I earned a B.S. in Astronomy in 1989 and another B.S. in Computer and Information Science in 1983.
As for why someone else would ignore science, your guess is as good as mine.

[nanning]

<snip>
I am now an ex-Republican, partly because of this but even more because of the GOP war-on-the-poor.

Wow. That's very nice to read Tom .

I guess what you learned in computer science in 1983 became outdated very fast? (technology)

[wili]

Thanks, Tom. I just thought maybe you were well acquainted with a number of folks that fit that description and may have an idea about how they tick.

I have an uncle who was a research scientist in hematology and later a dean of a major medical school, so very much a lover of science in most regards, but he still (now in his 90s) does not accept the science of AGW.

His ideology just seemed to be too much of a blinder in this case, apparently.

[blumenkraft]

Wili, the Kochs spend so much money on misinformation campaigns that your uncle heard climate 'change is a hoax' 100 times more often than the truth. Marketing works.

And for any dollar spend on manipulating the public opinion they earned 100 times the amount by keeping polluting the earth.

[Tom_Mazanec]

<snip>
I am now an ex-Republican, partly because of this but even more because of the GOP war-on-the-poor.

Wow. That's very nice to read Tom .

I guess what you learned in computer science in 1983 became outdated very fast? (technology)

I learned computing first as an Astronomy student.
We used punched cards.
Each card punch had something wrong with it. One could not punch "e"s so you could only use it for numerical data, another passed two cards for each one punched, so you had to take a card out and put it back, a third jumped a column after each character and you had to backspace...
Then we ran a shoebox full of cards through the reader, and went out for another class or lunch or studyhall or whatever. Come back an hour or two later when they put your printout into a cubbyhole numbered the last two digits of your student number.
Then you deciphered the hexadecimal error codes on the newpaper sized printout, debug the program, and do it all over again.
Yes, technology has changed!

[blumenkraft]

Sounds like USB-C to me. I have a shoebox of them. One does data but no power. The other does power but only 12W. One can do power in only one direction. Those can't do data. Another one is working sometimes. I also have a perfect 60W & data cable somewhere, can't find it.

Some things never change...

[Tom_Mazanec]

AGW consequences September 26, 2019

Why climate change is also a public health problem
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/climate-change-public-health-problem/story?id=65821388

Disease-carrying insects, and their habitats, spread
More heat- and cold-related deaths from extreme temperatures
Air pollution triggers battery of health problems
Mental health disorders and violence in the wake of hurricanes and floods

Also, for a personal view, first frost comes later. I used to be a miserable hay fever sufferer until I got a battery of shots.

A glacier in the Alps might collapse, thanks to global warming, officials say
https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/116103246/a-glacier-in-the-alps-might-collapse-thanks-to-global-warming-officials-say

Global warming has put a glacier in the Italian Alps at risk of collapse, officials warned, leading to road closures, travel restrictions, and evacuations in the immediate vicinity.

Municipal officials issued the order after surveyors observed a significant increase in the sliding speed of the Planpincieux glacier, which rests on the Italian side of the Grand Jorasses peak. The mountain is one of several in the Mont Blanc massif, which runs through Italy, France and part of Switzerland.

This is something I did not think of. I know glaciers are a part of our world and losing them would be a loss, but I thought their areas were undeveloped.

From Antarctica to the Oceans, Climate Change Damage Is About to Get a Lot Worse, IPCC Warns
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/25092019/ipcc-cryosphere-ocean-report-climate-change-sea-level-rise-greenland-antarctica

As the planet warms, diverse ecosystems—from mountain glaciers to the icy Arctic to the oceans—are already seeing dangerous effects from climate change. Future warming will threaten food supplies, force the migration of countless species and dramatically change the icy regions of the world. The changes are coming. How much is up to us, scientists warn in a new report released Wednesday by the United Nations.

The article focuses most on the oceans, but also mentions other consequences. Everybody loses something. For example, in arctic areas, you think warmer weather is good? You might till the permafrost thaws under your house and it shifts and is damaged.

No Plan B: Deciding Not To Have Children Because of Climate Change
https://www.delmarvapublicradio.net/post/no-plan-b-deciding-not-have-children-because-climate-change

Under current projections, analysts are expecting severe environmental disruptions due to climate change by the time babies born today enter adulthood.
This forecast has some young people questioning whether to bring more children into such a world.
Some don’t want to bring children into the world who will ultimately feel the same fear they do. They also worry about the climate footprint of raising a child. And, they don’t want their children to have to live in a world struggling with flooding, fires and more frequent harsh storms.
How does raising a child affect one’s carbon footprint? What would this mean for populations already in decline? We assemble a panel to find out.

The long term number of children per couple should be the replacement level. Maybe NPG is good for a few generations, but ultimately it must be ZPG or we die out.

Alaska residents are watching climate change warm the Arctic before their very eyes
https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/alaska-residents-are-watching-climate-change-warm-arctic-their-very-ncna1058416

Walter Peter, a Gwich’in hunter from Fort Yukon, Alaska, stood in front of the audience under an outdoor octagon of raw logs and listed the changes he’d seen: unreliable river ice, unpredictable salmon runs, altered goose migrations, tick-infested moose, diseased caribou. He spoke in a quiet, respectful voice and was respected in return. He didn’t crack a smile until he noted “there’s nothing better than fat moose kidneys and blueberry pancakes.” But he shook his head at the thought of all that is being lost.

Every culture and subculture in the world will lose many things that they treasure if AGW is unabated.

Extreme sea level events ‘will hit once a year by 2050’
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/sep/25/extreme-sea-level-events-will-hit-once-a-year-by-2050

Extreme sea level events that used to occur once a century will strike every year on many coasts by 2050, no matter whether climate heating emissions are curbed or not, according to a landmark report by the world’s scientists.
The stark assessment of the climate crisis in the world’s oceans and ice caps concludes that many serious impacts are already inevitable, from more intense storms to melting permafrost and dwindling marine life.
But far worse impacts will hit without urgent action to cut fossil fuel emissions, including eventual sea level rise of more than 4 metres in the worst case, an outcome that would redraw the map of the world and harm billions of people.

I live about 1000ft/300m above sea level. But migrants from the East Coast might crowd my high ground. I will be 92 in 2050 and my uncle is already older than that, so I may make it.

What an ice-free Arctic really means, and why it matters so much
https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/ice-free-arctic-1.5291966

And then there's the weather around the world. The jet stream, a column of air that travels from west to east that drives weather across the northern hemisphere, relies on the temperature difference between the Arctic and the south. But when the temperature difference is not as pronounced, the jet stream begins to develop kinks. This can have widespread effects such as creating systems that prolong heat waves in southern Ontario and Quebec or even Europe, or slow hurricanes to a near standstill, as was seen with Dorian earlier this month.
So although most Canadians — and most of the world's population — live far from the Arctic, its rapid changes will have effects felt across the globe.
"I think we have an incredible capacity to adapt, but we're going to push our limits, and we're going to live in a world that is already difficult for very many," Crowley said. But, he added, bluntly, "Of course we can better prepare, and be better at giving ourselves a chance at being resilient, but we need to stop crapping in our own bed."

Superstorm Sandy may have been enabled by the record small arctic sea ice, one poster saud to me here, so this might already be beginning.

Canadian fishermen feel effects of climate change as world panel sounds alarm bell
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/un-climate-change-report-nova-scotia-lobster-fishery-1.5296635

Boris Worm, a professor of marine biology at Halifax's Dalhousie University, contributed science that was assessed in the new report.
Worm said if the world continues on the current path, there will be 17 per cent less marine life globally on average by the end of the century.

Ocean temperatures change very slowly (thermal inertia), so I imagine there might be more like 70 percent less land life?

Panthera: At least 500 jaguars lost their lives or habitat in Amazon fires
https://news.mongabay.com/2019/09/panthera-at-least-500-jaguars-lost-their-lives-or-habitat-in-amazon-fires/

he fires in the Amazon forest in Brazil and Bolivia this year have burned key habitats of at least 500 adult, resident jaguars as of September 17, experts at Panthera, the global wild cat conservation organization, estimate. The numbers will continue to increase until the rains come, researchers say.
In Bolivia in particular, the fires have so far destroyed over 2 million hectares of forest in one of South America’s key “catscape”, a region that Panthera has identified as having the highest predicted density of cat species on the continent.
Panthera researchers also predict that many more jaguars will also likely starve or turn to killing livestock in neighboring ranches as a consequence of the fires, likely increasing conflict with the ranchers.

Wildfires are more likely in a warmer world. Which will release more CO2. Making the world still warmer...

‘IT’S JUST BAFFLING’: APPLE GROWERS FACE AN UNKNOWN THREAT THAT’S KILLING TREES
https://www.alleghenyfront.org/its-just-baffling-apple-growers-face-an-unknown-threat-thats-killing-trees/

Peters doesn’t think this is caused by an insect or a disease that spreads from tree to tree.
A study by Cornell University published this year found that weather-related stress like drought and severe cold could be an underlying cause. 
Peters doesn’t believe that’s the whole story. She has other theories, including increased rainfall or certain herbicides. A variety of stressors could be working together to lead to Rapid Apple Decline. 
“We just don’t know,” Peters said.

If AGW is part of it it is likely to get worse. I eat an apple a day(macintosh in the morning), so this is something I would not like.

Mountain Regions, ‘Taking the Heat,’ Face Growing Hazards As Ice Melts, UN Climate Panel Warns
https://www.circleofblue.org/2019/world/mountain-regions-taking-the-heat-face-growing-hazards-as-ice-melts-un-climate-panel-warns/

Melting glacial ice, driven by man-made temperature changes, is disrupting the supply of water, food, and energy downstream while raising the risk of landslides, floods, and other natural hazards in the Alps, Andes, Caucasus, Himalayas, and other major mountain ranges. Along with the collapse of ice sheets on Antarctica and Greenland, the meltwaters also contribute to an accelerating rise in sea levels. In the Arctic, permafrost is weakening, causing land to slump and destabilizing roads and structures.

My cousin Sharon and her husband Bill live in Colorado. Bill is a ski instructor. At least he is now, if there is no skiing in a few years...
PS If you come here after I edit this post, please understand. I am not eager to list 10 links with quotes and comments, only to have the power blink or my computer time out or something on the ninth link.

[Tom_Mazanec]

AGW Consequences September 27

Is Climate Change Driving Pirate Attacks in Indonesia?
https://theglobepost.com/2019/09/26/climate-change-pirates/

According to research by Sebastian Axbard, a lecturer of economics at the Queen Mary University of London, there is a correlation between poor local fishing conditions and increases in the rate of pirate attacks in Indonesia. Fishing conditions are influenced by oceanographic conditions like water temperature and levels of phytoplankton – a key source of food for fish.

I once saw a chart comparing rising climate temperatures and declining piracy. But in renent years, piracy has been on the rise (Somalia, then others) while temperatures continue up, so I guess the correlation is bogus.

Melting permafrost in the Arctic is unlocking diseases and warping the landscape
https://www.vox.com/2017/9/6/16062174/permafrost-melting

Now it’s melting. And things are getting weird and creepy: The ground warps, folds, and caves. Roadways built on top of permafrost have becoming wavy roller coasters through the tundra. Long-dormant microbes — some trapped in the ice for tens of thousands of years — are beginning to wake up, releasing equally ancient C02, and could potentially come to infect humans with deadly diseases. And the retreating ice is exposing frozen plants that haven’t seen the sun in 45,000 years, as radiocarbon dating research suggests.

The Black Death killed something like a third of the human race in the 14th Century, and smallpox killed something like two-thirds of the Western Hemisphere in the 17th Century. Wanna open Pandora's box?

Indigenous Knowledge Puts Industrial Pollution in Perspective
https://eos.org/articles/indigenous-knowledge-puts-industrial-pollution-in-perspective

Some arsenic released by Giant Mine was sequestered in sediments on lake bottoms, but some researchers say climate change could cause it to be released.

Arsenic is the stereotypical poison (Arsenic and Old Lace).Lucretia Borgia would be proud.

The Storm of the Century Could Soon Happen Every Year
https://www.citylab.com/environment/2019/09/extreme-weather-climate-change-sea-level-rise-floods-cities/598795/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheAtlanticCities+%28CityLab%29&utm_content=FeedBurner

According to the report, some islands in the Pacific and Indian oceans, as well as coastal cities in the Caribbean, are already seeing local sea levels rise each year to heights that used to be seen about once per century. In the best case scenario, in which global warming is limited to around 1.5 degrees, some cities along both the U.S. East and West coasts could see similar trends as early as 2035.

If that's the best case, what's the worst case?

A Plague of Cactus
https://www.biographic.com/posts/sto/a-plague-of-cactus

What’s happening in Kenya’s Laikipia region is a case study in how degraded land—damaged by unsustainable grazing practices and harmed further by climate change—is giving invasive species a leg up. Sometime in the late 1940s or early 50s, British colonial officials planted Opuntia stricta, a cactus native to the Americas, around their outpost in the tiny town of Dol Dol, a few miles from Larpei’s homestead. The shrubby plant’s attributes—bright yellow flowers, purple bulbous fruit, and protective spines—apparently made it both ornamental and functional, as a living fence or hedge.

My fondest hope is that a hurricane gets a pregnant female Herpestes auropunctatus blown from the Caribbean to Florida, and then that global warming allows the descendants of her litter to reach Ohio. 

How Climate Change Is Affecting Our Children's Health
https://www.wgbh.org/news/science-and-technology/2019/09/26/how-climate-change-is-affecting-our-childrens-health

Climate change doesn't just affect our planet's health, but also our own health — and particularly that of children. Dr. Aaron Bernstein, a pediatrician at Boston Children's Hospital, joined Boston Public Radio on Thursday to explain how climate change harms our health and which groups are affected the worst.
"The way the climate is changing has real relevance to children," Bernstein said. "What we do today is going to matter a heck of a lot more to them over their lifespans."
Children of color and children from low-income households face disproportionately negative impacts from climate change, Bernstein noted.
"Pollution is definitely affecting people of color and people who are poor across the country, and right here in Boston, more than others," he said. "If we stop burning fossil fuels and coal and oil and gas, we can get rid of those disparities. "

It is long since I was a child, and I have no children, but this still hurts.

[kassy]

The Black Death killed something like a third of the human race in the 14th Century, and smallpox killed something like two-thirds of the Western Hemisphere in the 17th Century. Wanna open Pandora's box?

Both black death and smallpox evolved with us and at some point turned nasty.
I would not worry about what comes out of the ice disease wise. The carbon is bad enough.

[Klondike Kat]

Almost anything that has increased in recent decades could be “correlated” with climate change.  That does mean there is any connection.  Teen suicides are on the rise, but I doubt there are a result of global climate changes.

[wili]

"Almost anything that has increased in recent decades could be “correlated” with climate change.  That does mean there is any connection.  Teen suicides are on the rise, but I doubt there are a result of global climate changes."

Yes, correlation, of course, by itself, does not prove causation. But for your particular example there is other evidence that there may, in fact, be causation going on between increased suicides and increased numbers of extremely hot days:

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/07/high-temperatures-cause-suicide-rates-to-increase/565826/

Climate Change May Cause 26,000 More U.S. Suicides by 2050

Unusually hot days have profound effects on mental health and human physiology.

[Ardeus]

Has more research been done on UV-C in solar radiation reaching the Earth surface?

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/251429767_Comment_on_Extreme_environments_in_the_forests_of_Ushuaia_Argentina_by_Hector_D'Antoni_et_al

The reviewer of this paper points that their measurements "must be wrong" just because the atmosphere would prevent UV-C radiation from touching the ground.

With sea ice declining, we get a smaller difference between weather in the arctic and the equator, more water vapour in the stratosphere and less ozone. Less ozone means less UV-C absorption.

If I had to guess what's behind the insect decline I would point at UV-C radiation.

[dnem]

Almost anything that has increased in recent decades could be “correlated” with climate change.  That does mean there is any connection.  Teen suicides are on the rise, but I doubt there are a result of global climate changes.

Jeez, KK, do you have kids?  I have one. Did you hear Greta's cri de coeur? Do you think the direction the human endeavor is heading in is making kids LESS anxious?  You may think everything's gonna be fine but the kids DON'T! Crikey.

[Tom_Mazanec]

AGW Consequences September 28
Beyond the Headlines
https://loe.org/shows/segments.html?programID=19-P13-00039&segmentID=5

In this week's trip beyond the headlines, Peter Dykstra joins Host Steve Curwood to take a look at recurring devastation left behind by storms, and how quickly the media moves on from covering them. Then, the two discuss which nations are on track to meet their 2015 Paris Climate Accord goals and which are falling behind. Next Peter and Steve talk about a new law in Florida that could have a chilling effect on environmental challenges to projects. Finally, the two discuss the 2019 Arctic ice cover minimum as well as reminisce about a famous television evangelist who believed that he could pray a storm away.

Global Warming means more energy in the atmospheric system, which means more activity, which means more storm.

[nanning]

Almost anything that has increased in recent decades could be “correlated” with climate change.  That does mean there is any connection.  Teen suicides are on the rise, but I doubt there are a result of global climate changes.

Jeez, KK, do you have kids?  I have one. Did you hear Greta's cri de coeur? Do you think the direction the human endeavor is heading in is making kids LESS anxious?  You may think everything's gonna be fine but the kids DON'T! Crikey.

I'm with you dnem.
Klondike, please have some empathy.

[SteveMDFP]

Has more research been done on UV-C in solar radiation reaching the Earth surface?

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/251429767_Comment_on_Extreme_environments_in_the_forests_of_Ushuaia_Argentina_by_Hector_D'Antoni_et_al

The reviewer of this paper points that their measurements "must be wrong" just because the atmosphere would prevent UV-C radiation from touching the ground.

With sea ice declining, we get a smaller difference between weather in the arctic and the equator, more water vapour in the stratosphere and less ozone. Less ozone means less UV-C absorption.

If I had to guess what's behind the insect decline I would point at UV-C radiation.

That's a fascinating lead.  What pops up from that link is hard to read from my browser, but I'll be looking into this.

Edit:  further research suggests the exact nature of the instrument error likely to cause such peculiar findings:
Debunked: "Deadly Ultraviolet UV-C and UV-B Penetration to Earth’s Surface:" [Stray Light]
https://www.metabunk.org/debunked-deadly-ultraviolet-uv-c-and-uv-b-penetration-to-earth’s-surface-stray-light.t9627/

[Ardeus]

Thanks a lot for digging up that discussion. Good to know that it was a measurement flaw.

[Klondike Kat]

Almost anything that has increased in recent decades could be “correlated” with climate change.  That does mean there is any connection.  Teen suicides are on the rise, but I doubt there are a result of global climate changes.

Jeez, KK, do you have kids?  I have one. Did you hear Greta's cri de coeur? Do you think the direction the human endeavor is heading in is making kids LESS anxious?  You may think everything's gonna be fine but the kids DON'T! Crikey.

Dnem, yes and they are all grown.  I also know parents who have dealt with this and not one could be attributed to climate.  Empathy is understanding, not using these events for activism.

[dnem]

Directly attributable? Of course not. Is the dramatically worsening climate situation adding to a rising sense of anxiety and unease in kids today? I think you'd have to be blind to say that it is not.

[nanning]

<snip>
Empathy is understanding, not using these events for activism.

Empathy is the capacity to place oneself in another lifeform's position.
It means being human!

Please consider the image below:
Your point seems to be: The little boy stands nearby and observes the situation and understands.
-> In reality the boy went to the girl who was in pain to comfort her! To touch. To assure. Human behaviour.

--
And I agree with dnem.

[Archimid]

You are all wasting your time. KkK has shown sufficient  intellectual capacity to understand the threat we all face, thus he does not have the benefit of ignorance that we can give others. He has obviously panicked about climate change and is trying to bring other down to the pits of panic with him. Like all other deniers, he has lost contact with reality due to fear. It is really not his fault at all. It is just a function of human psychology and the magnitude and scope of climate change.

This is on topic because panicky people like KkK and Trump actively hinder logical responses to climate change making the worst consequences of climate change worse.

[blumenkraft]

It is really not his fault at all.

Well, Kant would disagree. I would too.

[Klondike Kat]

Directly attributable? Of course not. Is the dramatically worsening climate situation adding to a rising sense of anxiety and unease in kids today? I think you'd have to be blind to say that it is not.

I can see quite clearly that it is not a cause of anxiety and unease.  Sorry, but the climate situation is not the cause of every ill on this planet. 

[zufall]

I went to one of the first school strike events at the beginning of this year when they were not widely known. I had taken a day off, and the kids had made it clear that adults were welcome at their events. I just stood at the side and watched. It wasn't really organized, they had open microphone. A maybe 16-17 year old girl took the mike and said that she loved children more than anything and that she absolutely wanted to have children, but decided not to have any because she was so depressed and afraid of the future and that to think about the topic made her very sad. Of course she may later change her mind, who knows, but it was obvious that she totally meant what she said, and her words impressed me the most on that day. I don't doubt that many of her age think this way.

Side note: When I tried to relate the event to my friends which are in my generation (40-55), I found out that no one had heard about school strikes. It's my generation that is detached from reality (now maybe not so much anymore, but many try to escape the problem by simply not thinking and not talking about it).

[Tom_Mazanec]

AGW Consequences September 29

Arctic breakdown: what climate change in the far north means for the rest of us
https://theconversation.com/arctic-breakdown-what-climate-change-in-the-far-north-means-for-the-rest-of-us-123309?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=twitterbutton

In the Arctic, a summer of heat, melting and fire was rounded off by news that 2019 saw the second-lowest ever minimum extent of sea ice. That’s the point in early autumn each year when scientists say that the Arctic Ocean will begin to freeze again. By that measure, only 2012 had less sea ice than this year.
Meanwhile, the IPCC’s latest special report on the oceans and cryosphere was full of bad news (the cryosphere is that part of the earth system where water occurs in its frozen form, usually as snow or ice). The region’s glacier ice is retreating, the ground is thawing, forests are becoming a fire risk. Only people in low lying islands are as vulnerable to climate change as those in the Arctic, according to the IPCC.

The Arctic was the original focus of this forum, as I understand it. But AGW will affect everybody everywhere.

A possibly historic snow storm in the West plus a heat wave in the East — what’s going on?
http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/imageo/2019/09/28/historic-snow-storm-in-the-west-plus-a-heat-wave-in-the-east-whats-going-on/#.XZD7A0xFyUl

As the graphic above shows, the contiguous United States has seen a rising trend in the percentage of the region experiencing daily high temperatures that are much above normal. A similar rising trend has occurred in the percentage of the United States with a much greater than normal proportion of precipitation derived from extreme one-day precipitation events.
At this point, it would be inappropriate to directly attribute both the developing northern Rockies early autumn snow storm, and the Eastern heat wave, to human-caused climate change. That kind of direct attribution takes detailed scientific detective work after the fact.
But what we’re seeing is part of a broader trend that research increasingly links to our influence on the climate.

Of course this is Arctic Amplification turning the Jet Stream from a straight line to a bunch of meandering waves. But of course the Deniers say "Two feet of snow in Colorado in September? Global Warming, BAH!"

‘Worse Than Anyone Expected’: Air Travel Emissions Vastly Outpace Predictions
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/19/climate/air-travel-emissions.html

Greenhouse gas emissions from commercial air travel are growing at a faster clip than predicted in previous, already dire, projections, according to new research — putting pressure on airline regulators to take stronger action as they prepare for a summit next week.

This means either we give up flying or the other consequences get a lot worse.

Arctic Sea Ice Hits 2nd Lowest on Record
https://weather.com/en-CA/international/videos/video/arctic-sea-ice-hits-2nd-lowest-on-record

This year’s annual minimum of the Arctic sea ice has tied with the second-lowest extent on record, a mere 1.6 million square miles.

Already the Arctic Ocean is mostly ice free in September in a typical year, not a freak like 2012.

[dnem]

Directly attributable? Of course not. Is the dramatically worsening climate situation adding to a rising sense of anxiety and unease in kids today? I think you'd have to be blind to say that it is not.

I can see quite clearly that it is not a cause of anxiety and unease.  Sorry, but the climate situation is not the cause of every ill on this planet.

Archimid is obviously correct.  Even if she is wrong, Greta stopped eating and speaking bc she was so distraught over climate change. She literally stunted her fucking growth bc of it. Do you think she is the only kid on the planet to be affected? You are a heartless person.

[Klondike Kat]

Directly attributable? Of course not. Is the dramatically worsening climate situation adding to a rising sense of anxiety and unease in kids today? I think you'd have to be blind to say that it is not.

I can see quite clearly that it is not a cause of anxiety and unease.  Sorry, but the climate situation is not the cause of every ill on this planet.

Archimid is obviously correct.  Even if she is wrong, Greta stopped eating and speaking bc she was so distraught over climate change. She literally stunted her fucking growth bc of it. Do you think she is the only kid on the planet to be affected? You are a heartless person.

Archimid has a separate agenda - that of exaggerated the effects in order to promote action.  I disagree vehemently.  This technique is a proven failure.  I am sorry if truth and facts appear heartless.  But identifier single individuals among the masses to change opinions is what politicians do, not scientists.  This thread is not about individuals, but the bigger picture.

[Archimid]

Archimid has a separate agenda - that of exaggerated the effects in order to promote action.

Wrong. My "agenda" is to portray the risk to the best of my understanding to promote action. It is not an exaggeration to say that we may be ice free in the North Pole in September next decade. It is downright likely. The consequences of this event ( or continuum of events that already started) will be catastrophic for the North Hemisphere and the world at large. We are just at the beginning of it and insurance is already failing.

The threat is as real as it gets. Fear is 100% warranted and expected. If you do not feel fear about this, then you do not understand the danger.

As Donald Trump clearly shows fear is one of the most powerful motivators of humans at a society level. Trump exploits xenophobia to make some Americans scared shitless of brown children to such an extent that they exert cruel and unusual punishment and violate their human rights to keep them away. They love it because it appeases fear, however fake the fear is, and Trump takes full advantage of it.

Fear of climate change is completely warranted. That fear will cause action, if properly channeled that fear will produce the correct action against the real threat. Denying the danger blunts the actual fear that we should have, blunting action.

Fear of real danger is very good and a necesary response to activate human defenses.

[nanning]

^^
I completely agree Archimid. Thanks for those true words.

[Tom_Mazanec]

New Zealand tourism sees threat if climate change deters long-haul flyers
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/116193329/climate-change-threat-for-tourism-sparks-research-on-impact

A report on New Zealand's tourism industry says concerns about carbon emissions pose a threat to long haul travel and the industry's future.
A Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE) report on Tourism New Zealand (TNZ) released on Monday highlighted the challenges it will face.
They include softening international growth, fierce competition for customers, and the risk of carbon emissions affecting travel choices, particularly for long haul trips.

More jobs lost, and less chance to travel. Not a good future.

RPT-Drought-hit Australian towns prepare for 'unimaginable' water crisis
https://www.reuters.com/article/australia-drought/rpt-drought-hit-australian-towns-prepare-for-unimaginable-water-crisis-idUSL3N26K0DC

* Some regional Australian towns have trucked in drinking water
* Several towns forecast to hit ‘day zero’ next year
* The drought is party driven by warmer sea and air temperatures
* Farm production is declining, hurting Australia’s economy

I live in the Great Lakes area, so drought is not a problem here. Even in 1988, Maple Heights had fireworks by firehosing the launch field. But not everybody is so lucky.

In Dorian's wake, Bahamas appeals for climate action at UN
https://www.wxyz.com/news/political/national/in-dorians-wake-bahamas-appeals-for-climate-action-at-un

As the Bahamas strives to recover from Hurricane Dorian, Prime Minister Hubert Minnis appealed to world leaders Friday to tackle climate change — and encouraged travelers to visit to help the country rebuild.

Of course that would require more tourism, exacerbating global warming and thus making more major hurricanes...

Ticks and Climate Change Impact on Moose
https://www.wagmtv.com/content/news/Ticks-and-Climate-Change-Impact-on-Moose-561707531.html

The devastating toll of ticks on New England's moose herd has caused the region's population to shrink, and experts worry it could get worse with climate change. The northern New England states are home to thousands of moose, but the herd has dwindled in the last decade, in part because of the winter ticks.

Don't ticks also spread disease to humans?

Climate Risk in the Housing Market Has Echoes of Subprime Crisis, Study Finds
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/27/climate/mortgage-climate-risk.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fclimate

Banks are shielding themselves from climate change at taxpayers’ expense by shifting riskier mortgages — such as those in coastal areas — off their books and over to the federal government, new research suggests.

After hurricanes, mortgage lenders offload more of their vulnerable loans to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, whose rules prevent them from saying no. Next financial crisis?

[Tom_Mazanec]

AGW Consequences for October 1

Climate Change Is Decimating Mojave Desert Birds
https://laist.com/2019/09/30/climate-change-mojave-desert-birds-death-heat-water.php

We found out last year that hotter, drier weather due to climate change is likely causing bird populations in the Mojave Desert to collapse at an alarming rate. A new study published today suggests one big reason why: Birds are having a hard time staying hydrated, which means they're having a hard time staying cool.
Over the past century, temperatures in the Mojave Desert have risen about 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit, while precipitation has declined in some parts. That's coincided with a roughly 40 percent decrease in the number of bird species documented there.

I would have expected the Mojave to have warmed less than that, since it would not be subject to Arctic Amplification

U.S. taxpayers are at risk for homes threatened by climate change
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/banks-shift-mortgages-on-disaster-prone-properties-to-taxpayers-study-shows/

Banks are selling mortgages on homes in coastal areas around the U.S. that are vulnerable to natural disasters to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, a study finds.
That could leave taxpayers footing the bill because the two government-sponsored enterprises buy the mortgages without adequately accounting for the heightened property risks.
"Climate change could lead to a 'Big Short' kind of crisis," one of the study's authors said.

Are you an American taxpayer? If in another nation, how does your country "do it"?

CLIMATE CHANGE MAY TAKE AWAY YOUR ABILITY TO FLUSH THE TOILET
https://www.newsweek.com/climate-change-stop-flushing-toilets-1462121

A new United Nations report states that rising sea levels could render as many as 60 million toilets inoperable in the United States alone, as traditional septic systems are threatened by increased groundwater.
About 1 in 5 American households rely on septic systems to handle their toilet waste, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. These systems work by draining flushed toilets into an underground tank, where bacteria breaks it down into water and solid sludge. That water moves through an outflow tube into a drainage field.
However, as sea levels rise, those drainage fields are becoming saturated, preventing them from absorbing liquid from septic tanks. In addition, erosion removes the necessary soft earth to filter out pollutants, resulting in public health hazards and groundwater contamination.

I never thought toilet flushing would be a problem.
I have nightmares about not being able to flush the toilet!

At a Cambodian Lake, a Climate Crisis Unfolds
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/30/opinion/tonle-sap-cambodia-climate.html

A trifecta of climate change, hydropower dams and illegal fishing are threatening the Tonle Sap, and the people who rely on its fish.

Illegal fishing might yield to more law enforcement, and maybe dams can be prevented by civil action, but AGW is a toughie.

Climate Change Threatens the World’s Fisheries, Food Billions of People Rely On
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/27092019/ocean-fish-diet-climate-change-impact-food-ipcc-report-cryosphere

Fisheries are often overlooked when researchers and policymakers focus on land-based agriculture as the primary food source for a growing global population, yet fish are an essential protein source for 3.2 billion people and provide 17 percent of the world's animal protein. They're especially important in some developing tropical countries that rely on fish for 70 percent of their nutrition.
"The changes in the oceans will have direct impacts on people who are depending on these systems for food," said William Cheung, a professor from the University of British Columbia and a lead author of the report's chapter covering fisheries.
The scientists determined that the sustainable fish catch—the amount of fish that can be caught without decimating populations—could drop by as much as a quarter by the end of the century if greenhouse gas emissions continue on their current trajectory.

Of course those developing countries in the Tropics have some of the fastest growth rates of anyplace on Earth.

Calm Before the Storm
https://newrepublic.com/article/154942/america-nuclear-power-plants-climate-change-risk-fukushima

The chance of a nuclear accident releasing significant radioactivity and harming the public is “very small,” according to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the federal agency whose mission is, in part, “to provide reasonable assurance of adequate protection of public health and safety.” But as sea levels rise, a flawed understanding of climate science and the outsize influence that the U.S. nuclear industry exerts on the NRC have converged, increasing the risk of disastrous flood-induced accidents at coastal nuclear power plants around the United States.

How about a coastal Chernobyl at your favorite seaside site?


'We know they aren't feeding': fears for polar bears over shrinking Arctic ice
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/29/polar-bears-arctic-sea-ice-environment

The loss of Arctic ice from glaciers, polar land and sea is increasing faster than many scientists expected, as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) report on oceans and the cryosphere said this week.
That’s bad news for polar bear populations, a top expert involved in field studies on the endangered animals has told the Guardian.
This year’s annual minimum of the Arctic sea ice tied with the second-lowest extent on record, a mere 1.6m sq miles, and badly affected polar bear populations that live and hunt on the north slope of Alaska, plus those that live on the ice floes in the Bering Sea.

How did polar bears survive the Eemian? Or hadn't they evolved yet? Or was the Eemian still filled with Arctic Ice?

Yellow Fever And Malaria In The US? With Climate Crisis, It's Within The Realm Of Possibility
https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2019/09/30/infectious-disease-climate-change

"For instance, mosquitoes are animals that really depend on water in order to breed. And they also tend to be more active at higher temperatures. So as we see rising temperatures, increased rainfall worldwide, we see an increase in the range and number of mosquitoes. For example, Aedes species mosquitoes, which spread diseases like dengue, Zika virus, chikungunya, West Nile virus; currently about 50% of the world population is susceptible to being bitten by those mosquitoes. We expect that to increase as the climate continues to warm."

I wonder if I will die of one of these "tropical" diseases?

Climate change is changing the flavor of French wine
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/09/wine-harvest-dates-earlier-climate-change/

Now, a nearly 700-year-long record of harvest dates from the town of Beaune, in Burgundy, shows that early harvest dates like the one from 1540 are now par for the course, thanks to climate change. Scientists and historians stitched together a record of grape harvest dates going back to 1354. They found that air temperatures have warmed so much—and especially in the last 30 years—that grapes are now harvested almost two weeks before their historical norm.
“We can clearly see the reaction of the grapes to the rise in temperature,” says Thomas Labbé, an historian at the University of Leipzig.
And that reaction is changing the wine itself.

I only drink wine at Communion, but I still don't want it to change.

Australia’s vast carbon sink releasing millions of tonnes of CO2 back into atmosphere
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/01/australias-vast-carbon-sink-releasing-millions-of-tonnes-of-co2-back-into-atmosphere

Serrano said: “When these ecosystems are damaged by storms, heatwaves, dredging or other human development, the carbon dioxide stored in their biomass and soils beneath them can make its way back into the environment, contributing to climate change.
“Globally, vegetated coastal ecosystems are being lost twice as fast as tropical rainforests despite covering a fraction of the area.”

Just one more feedback of many...

The Displaced: I lost my house to climate change
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-49859408/the-displaced-i-lost-my-house-to-climate-change

Vietnam is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change - we meet the families on the front lines.

How likely are you to lose your home to AGW?

[blumenkraft]

If in another nation, how does your country "do it"?

🙈🙉🙊 << Like that.

[aperson]

I can see quite clearly that it is not a cause of anxiety and unease.  Sorry, but the climate situation is not the cause of every ill on this planet.

I imagine it's pretty easy to see that when your entire posting career is one Type II error after another.

[Archimid]

Hope without fear blunts the reaction.
Fear without hope induces panic.
DON'T PANIC.

There is green left. There is life left. Amazing people have been working to solve this for years, each one with their small part of the big puzzle. Solutions are emerging. Humans can do this.

We do need to hurry. It is already too late for some.

[Klondike Kat]

Archimid has a separate agenda - that of exaggerated the effects in order to promote action.

Wrong. My "agenda" is to portray the risk to the best of my understanding to promote action. It is not an exaggeration to say that we may be ice free in the North Pole in September next decade. It is downright likely. The consequences of this event ( or continuum of events that already started) will be catastrophic for the North Hemisphere and the world at large. We are just at the beginning of it and insurance is already failing.

The threat is as real as it gets. Fear is 100% warranted and expected. If you do not feel fear about this, then you do not understand the danger.

As Donald Trump clearly shows fear is one of the most powerful motivators of humans at a society level. Trump exploits xenophobia to make some Americans scared shitless of brown children to such an extent that they exert cruel and unusual punishment and violate their human rights to keep them away. They love it because it appeases fear, however fake the fear is, and Trump takes full advantage of it.

Fear of climate change is completely warranted. That fear will cause action, if properly channeled that fear will produce the correct action against the real threat. Denying the danger blunts the actual fear that we should have, blunting action.

Fear of real danger is very good and a necesary response to activate human defenses.

Odd, as your loast post in when will the arctic be ice-free thread stated that an ice-free condition will occur around 2031 - definitely not next decade.  The evidence that this state will be catastrophic is severly lacking.

Fearmongering will not help the situation.  All it has done in the past is alienate the populace, who relate the fearmongerers to other Armageddon prophets.  The best approach is to educate the people on the real consequences and timing of such.  Past fearmongering has delayed action by decades.

[nanning]

<snip>
Odd, as your loast post in when will the arctic be ice-free thread stated that an ice-free condition will occur around 2031 - definitely not next decade.

"Fearmongering"
Past fearmongering has delayed action by decades.

You are desperate and searching in corners with 2031-2029>0. You also lie in your last sentence! I think you are scared and have low morality. Something you can change .

[Tom_Mazanec]

AGW Consequences October 2

Science data struggles to keep up with climate change
https://www.thecordovatimes.com/2019/10/01/science-data-struggles-to-keep-up-with-climate-change/

To assess the pace of change in cumulative human impacts (CHI) they calculated and mapped the cumulative impact of 14 stressors related to human activities, which included climate change, fishing and land-based pressures, on 12 marine ecosystems globally for each of 11 years spanning 2003 to 2013. The stressors included ocean acidification, sea surface temperature, sea level rise, shipping, nutrient pollution, organic pollution, direct human, light pollution, five types of commercial fishing and artisanal fishing.
Halpern and Frazer said they found that 59 percent of the ocean is experiencing significantly increasing cumulative impact, in particularly from climate change, but also from fishing, land- based pollution and shipping.
According to Frazier “increasing greenhouse gas emissions have resulted in large increases in ocean temperature which impact many ocean habitats and animals.”

AGW is comparable to the other 13 stressors combined.

Climate change means the government faces more costs from natural disasters. If only it admitted it.
https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/climate-change-means-government-faces-more-costs-natural-disasters-if-ncna1059901

Hurricanes might not be becoming more frequent, but they are certainly becoming more intense, and they are doing so in ways consistent with the predicted impacts of climate change. We only need to look as far as the Caribbean to observe this in the extraordinary damage caused by Hurricane Dorian this September — flooded houses, destroyed cars and swamped infrastructure that caused scores of deaths.
Human settlements are getting more vulnerable to those hazards as the climate changes around them. Climate change can speed erosion and change shorelines and vegetation patterns, reducing natural barriers and making it harder to mitigate the devastation.

Don't worry. The US government is only twenty-odd trillion dollars in debt, plus a hundred plus trillion in unfunded liabilities.

Climate Change Could Lead to More Conflict Between Species as They Adapt and Move, Increasing Extinctions
https://www.newsweek.com/climate-change-conflict-species-adapt-move-1462402

Climate change poses an existential threat to many animal species on the planet. Now, research suggests that species are going to come into conflict with one another as they genetically adapt or migrate to more suitable habitats.

I know mongooses are at war with snakes, but now they will be at war with everything?

As tick-borne illness spreads across the U.S., so does grassroots education to prevent it
https://ensia.com/articles/as-tick-borne-illness-spreads-across-the-u-s-so-does-grassroots-education-to-prevent-it/

According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), climate change is likely increasing the risk of Lyme disease. Rising temperatures have led to an expansion in tick ranges and have allowed more regions to become suitable for tick proliferation. Additionally, shorter winters can increase the portion of the year during which ticks are active and able to transmit Lyme disease.

The description of LD in the article sounds nasty. I do not want to catch it!

The strange, uncertain fate of Alaska’s biggest wild salmon habitat
https://thefern.org/2019/10/the-strange-uncertain-fate-of-alaskas-biggest-wild-salmon-habitat/

For her generation of fishermen, investing here is more of a gamble than ever. Twin threats hang over this place where many of America’s salmon dinners come from: a rapidly warming climate, which has already scrambled the pattern of the seasons across vast swaths of Alaska, and Pebble Mine, a proposed open pit mine at the bay’s headwaters, which has been given new life by Donald Trump’s administration. Many who live and fish here, including Hoover, worry that once the mine is built, pollution is inevitable and that together these two forces could destroy this rare, pristine ecosystem, threatening salmon, communities, and whole ways of life.

I used to get Salmon at lunch at the Mandarin Seafood Buffet. Now they don't offer it then...too expensive. Is this why?

[Klondike Kat]

<snip>
Odd, as your loast post in when will the arctic be ice-free thread stated that an ice-free condition will occur around 2031 - definitely not next decade.

"Fearmongering"
Past fearmongering has delayed action by decades.

You are desperate and searching in corners with 2031-2029>0. You also lie in your last sentence! I think you are scared and have low morality. Something you can change .

I think you might improve your credibility by not resorting to name-calling those with whom you disagree. 

[kassy]

There is no name calling there. He calls out one lie and the rest is prefaced by ´i think´.

[Klondike Kat]

There is no name calling there. He calls out one lie and the rest is prefaced by ´i think´.

That is a cope out response.  Prefacing a verbal attack by "i think" in no way changes the intent.  Additionally, there was no lie.  That is just another verbal attack.

[kassy]

How did past fearmongering delay action? Any concrete example of that?

I don´t recall any fearmongering. For most people the issue was never important.

[Klondike Kat]

How did past fearmongering delay action? Any concrete example of that?

I don´t recall any fearmongering. For most people the issue was never important.

You must be realtively new to the issue.  A few examples include the 2005 season being the new "normal" for hurricanes.  Entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000.  50 million climate refugees by 2010.  It is possible that carbon dioxide climate-induced famines could kill as many as a billion people before the year 2020.  My personal favorite is snowfall will become a very rare and exciting event (although this might be welcome news to some).  What about the predictions of an ice-free Arctic in 2008? 

The reason that the issue has not been important is these ridiculous claims.  Granted, many people are little concerned about consequences decades into the future.  However, claiming that these consequences were imminent (in order to pursuade people to act) wound up making their claimants appear as chicken littles.  The general populous may not be the most intelligent, but they are not all together stupid either.  If someone makes enough false claims, they will begin to question the accurate ones also.  Presenting the issue in a factual manner is the best approach.

[bbr2314]

How did past fearmongering delay action? Any concrete example of that?

I don´t recall any fearmongering. For most people the issue was never important.

You must be realtively new to the issue.  A few examples include the 2005 season being the new "normal" for hurricanes.  Entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000.  50 million climate refugees by 2010.  It is possible that carbon dioxide climate-induced famines could kill as many as a billion people before the year 2020.  My personal favorite is snowfall will become a very rare and exciting event (although this might be welcome news to some).  What about the predictions of an ice-free Arctic in 2008? 

The reason that the issue has not been important is these ridiculous claims.  Granted, many people are little concerned about consequences decades into the future.  However, claiming that these consequences were imminent (in order to pursuade people to act) wound up making their claimants appear as chicken littles.  The general populous may not be the most intelligent, but they are not all together stupid either.  If someone makes enough false claims, they will begin to question the accurate ones also.  Presenting the issue in a factual manner is the best approach.

I disagree with KK frequently but he is correct here. It is also why a shrieking teenager like Greta is very bad for the message re: what actually needs to be done. It is easy to get hysterical (I have done this myself) when the news is XYZ is happening and the world will end in 5 years. It is hard to remember the news is designed to sell advertising via your fear. And a child like Greta does not even realize that the news is selling ads via fear (in fact Greta is helping them monetize despair / etc).

[Tor Bejnar]

Fearmongering will not help the situation.  All it has done in the past is alienate the populace, who relate the fearmongerers to other Armageddon prophets. ...

I think fearmongering by a populist leader can move mountains.  Think "war hysteria".  (I don't like the mountain being moved, but that's another issue.)

I prefer the research that finds that non-violent movements are much more likely to succeed than violent ones. (e.g., here)