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Author Topic: Meat Consumption and Global Warming  (Read 61327 times)

etienne

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Re: Meat Consumption and Global Warming
« Reply #100 on: April 04, 2022, 06:21:00 AM »
Bruce, what you tell us is what already scares me regarding wheat. Ukraine production for 2022 can only be a small percentage of what is was  in 2021, and if what I read is right, they provide around 30% of the international sales.
It is now probably too late to increase the production in other countries, and even if a farmer would want to produce potatoes instead, I can't imagine that he would find the required potatoes to put into the ground. At least where I work, I'm happy when I can get what I ordered.
I guess that cows and sheeps farmers have the advantage that they can easier limit the size of the herd to the capacity of the farm, but that again will make a lot of meat right now and not much next year.
Added: my only hope is that, if we eat the barley, soja and corn directly instead of feeding the animals, there might be enough for everyone. But my kids won't like it.
Added2: the article on the link talks about Spain and Italy, but I buy mostly Portuguese ham because it is about 30% cheaper with a similar quality, and because I hope their pigs haven't been days in a truck before culling. I wonder how they can manage the situation.
« Last Edit: April 04, 2022, 06:55:27 AM by etienne »

Bruce Steele

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Re: Meat Consumption and Global Warming
« Reply #101 on: April 04, 2022, 09:11:59 AM »
Etienne, As herds are reduced the price of meat stays low so it is very hard to increase prices unless your customers understand and help support their local producers. Still you just can’t raise prices a third to a half like your expenses have risen. Because livestock consumes lots of grains the price of grains should drop eventually as total number of animals drop but the whole process takes a long time , farmers still need to feed until they can reduce numbers. Processing has been limited for a couple years now ( Covid labor issues ) so moving extra animals takes months and months. A slow retreat is about as good an outcome as a farmer can hope for under these conditions. Later as things get more desperate whole herds will go to auction .
 There are obvious political ramifications for countries like Egypt that are so closely tied to Ukrainian and Russian supplies of wheat and sunflower oil. Farmers in these regions I am sure are already in terrible shape. The grain the farmers are feeding is in direct competition with grain for bread and is limited to what is in storage from last year. I don’t know how fast grain from this years Southern Hemisphere  summer harvest can be moved to fill the current gap in supply but shipping rates are also high right now and I am sure there is a lot of people competing for those supplies.
 I am not an expert at the world commodity grain business . I think storage tempers markets in the short term but by next spring things will be much worse. People do have some time to prepare some emergency food stores in case I am correct about next year. When average gardeners begin to learn how to plant ,harvest ,dry and mill their own flour then the gravity of the situation might have dawned on them. Most people will miss the planting window for spring wheat unless they have already thought this all through. No there aren’t food shortages coming for most European and US markets because we aren’t  dependent on Russian wheat like the Middle East but Europe is partially dependent on grain production that will be restricted for the upcoming harvest. Still I think learning how to garden grains is a worthy gardening pursuit. Just in case.
« Last Edit: April 04, 2022, 09:19:12 AM by Bruce Steele »

KiwiGriff

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Re: Meat Consumption and Global Warming
« Reply #102 on: April 04, 2022, 11:24:18 AM »
Not all meat is raised using  industrial scale grain production as a feed stock.
Here in NZ beef and sheep  is mostly grass fed.
 NZ's international trade dominating  diary output is also predominately Grass fed.

Ukraine and the present uncivilized actions of Russia are occurring at the beginning of their planting season. Other regions,seeing a potential limited supply  hence higher price. will plant more  anticipating profitability .   Short term the market will react emotionally. I do not see long term supply significantly  below normal production.
  This time .
We are loading  the dice .
AGW  the effects of extremes in drought, heat and excesses water will  coincide on a global scale to limit global grain supply  more significantly than a regional wars  effects will.

Do not think I am down playing the toll on humanity due to this unwarranted invasion of a Sovereign Nation  .
Slava Ukraini
Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
Robert Heinlein.

etienne

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Re: Meat Consumption and Global Warming
« Reply #103 on: April 04, 2022, 01:13:23 PM »
KiwiGriff, I wouldn't be so optimistic. I see a perfect storm coming on us. It's not possible to easily increase a production when everything is in limited supply. Most places suffer drought or floodings, that's the climate change part of the storm, spare parts and seeds are in limited supply, that's the COVID's impact, and surfaces available are greatly reduced because of the war.
In Africa, we already had many areas where people didn't have enough food... so if we didn't enjoy COVID, I don't think we will prefer what comes after.

Bruce Steele

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Re: Meat Consumption and Global Warming
« Reply #104 on: April 04, 2022, 05:34:25 PM »
KiwiGriff, Some farmers will figure out how to step sideways or even may profit by the rise in food costs.
Most pork and chicken is grain fed and aquaculture is also dependent on grains. Production costs for grains, diesel and fertilizer ,have risen rapidly and how it all plays out I don’t know. I only brought up the subject because I am thinking out loud about what I have to do. It isn’t something that most people share. I tried to find a thread on food/ famine but only found this one.
When something like famine begins to haunt the horizon it is time to look. Madagascar is hard to look at. It says something .