Kilimanjaro Glaciers

[ArcticMelt2]

It is believed that this is one of the oldest glaciers on the planet.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Kilimanjaro

Because of the exceptionally prolonged dry conditions during the subsequent Younger Dryas stadial, the ice fields on Kilimanjaro may have become extinct around 11,500 years BP.[81] Ice cores taken from Kilimanjaro's Northern Ice Field (NIF) indicates that the glaciers there have a basal age of about 11,700 years,[83] although an analysis of ice taken in 2011 from exposed vertical cliffs in the NIF supports an age extending only to 800 years BP.[84] Higher precipitation rates at the beginning of the Holocene epoch (11,500 years BP) allowed the ice cap to reform.[81] The glaciers survived a widespread drought during a three century period beginning around 4,000 years BP.[81][85]

Now this 12-thousand-year-old ice is on the verge of total destruction.

http://kiboice.blogspot.com/2019/02/19-years-on-northern-icefield.html

This week marks 19 years since AWS measurements began on Kilimanjaro's Northern Icefield (NIF). With enthusiastic help from our Tanzanian crew, Mathias Vuille and I installed a tower into the ice and connected the electronics. Remarkably, the same datalogger continues measurement and control functions, and the same solar panels continue to provide power. Most sensors have been swapped out for recalibration or replacement, yet the original barometric pressure sensor continues reliable measurements every hour.

Ice ablation since 2000 has substantially reduce the areal extent of all glaciers on the mountain. However, this portion of the NIF has "only" thinned by ~5 meters, because the low surface gradient retards meltwater runoff - which then refreezes in place as superimposed ice. Other portions of the NIF, and other glaciers, have thinned more dramatically. For example, ice no longer remains at February 2000 drill sites on the Furtwängler and Decken Glaciers, which were 9.5 and ~20 m thick at the time (respectively).

For comparison, the length of the longest cores of the Northern glacier does not exceed 50 meters:
https://byrd.osu.edu/research/groups/ice-core-paleoclimatology/projects/tanzania/kilimanjaro

In January and February of 2000, six ice cores were drilled to bedrock from the three remnant ice fields on the rim and summit plateau atop Kilimanjaro (3° 03.7' S; 37° 21.2' E; 5893 m asl). The three longest cores (NIF1, NIF2, NIF3) were drilled to depths of 50.9, 50.8, and 49.0 meters, respectively, from the Northern Ice Field (NIF), the largest of the ice bodies.

Now this glacier is 5 meters thinner.

The radar in 2015 confirms that the thickness of this glacier is not more than 50 meters.

https://www.the-cryosphere.net/11/469/2017/

The GPR profiles reveal an ice thickness ranging between (6.1 ± 0.5) and (53.5 ± 1.0) m. Combining these data with a very high resolution digital elevation model we spatially extrapolate ice thickness and give an estimate of the total ice volume remaining at NIF's southern portion as (12.0 ± 0.3) × 106 m3.

[ArcticMelt2]

The radar in 2015 confirms that the thickness of this glacier is not more than 50 meters.

https://www.the-cryosphere.net/11/469/2017/

The GPR profiles reveal an ice thickness ranging between (6.1 ± 0.5) and (53.5 ± 1.0) m. Combining these data with a very high resolution digital elevation model we spatially extrapolate ice thickness and give an estimate of the total ice volume remaining at NIF's southern portion as (12.0 ± 0.3) × 106 m3.

In this work, there is a graph of how the thickest part of the oldest glacier falls.

This definitely proves that critical temperatures have already been reached, which are maximum for at least the last 12 thousand years.

[ArcticMelt2]

Map of the thickness of the last and oldest pieces of African ice.

[ArcticMelt2]

The last map shows that in 2000 they drilled not in the thickest part of the glacier. In this regard, the ice Kilimanjaro may even be older than 12 thousand years. Theoretically, it could survive since the last interglacial time 140 thousand years ago.

I hope scientists will have time to re-drill the glacier before it finally melts.

[grixm]

Wildfire has been burning on the Kilimanjaro slopes for the past few days.

I was curious to see how, if at all, the nearby fire afffected the glaciers, so I checked the sat images. It's hard to conclude anything, snow cover is melting but it did so even before the fire started. Either way the snow cover is now less than it has been for over a year. And comparing with that time we can see that the glaciers have melted more, too.

I made a gif showing the Furtwangler glacier and its nearby ground, both in sept 2019, and this year october 5th, 10th and 15th. It is closer and closer to being gone forever.

[grixm]

Update on Kilimanjaro. There was snowfall in November but then it started melting again and now large parts of the summit is exposed again, and we're heading into a milder, drier season..

Attached is an animated gif, click to play. The red areas in the first frame is the remaining glaciers, as opposed to just snow.

[grixm]

Update on Kilimanjaro again. There was snow in January and a bit more in February so we lost the chance at record little snow for a while. But throughout March it has started to melt a bit again, and small strips are exposed along the ground on the sunny side of the glaciers, which means they are continuing melt too.

[kassy]

Not Kilimanjaro but near enough:

Uganda climate change: The people under threat from a melting glacier

Ronah Masika remembers when she could still see the snowy caps of the Rwenzori mountains, a Unesco World Heritage site on the border between Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The view was stunning every time she travelled from her home in Kasese town to the Ugandan capital, Kampala - and it was not even that long ago.

But now she cannot even catch a glimpse of the ice because the glacier is receding.

And it is not only the view that has changed.

Ms Masika recalls her grandmother used to grow beans to feed her family, and they would last until a new crop was ready to be harvested.

"Now I and other people find it difficult to sustain ourselves with what we plant at home, because everything gets destroyed by floods or drought. It's either too much drought or too much rain.

"It's making me uncomfortable, thinking of how the next generation is going to survive this horrible situation," says Ms Masika, who now works on a project to mitigate the impact of the shifting environment.

Climate change is affecting the Rwenzori Mountains in different ways.

The most visible is the rapid loss of the ice field, which shrunk from 6.5 sq km in 1906 to less than one sq km in 2003, and could completely disappear before the end of this decade, research shows.

In 2012, forest fires reached altitudes above 4,000m, which would have been inconceivable in the past, devastating vegetation that controlled the flow of the rivers downstream.

Since then, the communities living at the foot of the Rwenzori have suffered some of the most destructive floods the area has ever seen, coupled with a pattern of less frequent but heavier rainfall.

and more on:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-56526631

[grixm]

Update on Kilimanjaro. Very little snow during the last few months, so snow cover has steadily decreased. Still far from a record, though. Attached is a gif of the summit from May until now.

[grixm]

Update on Kilimanjaro. Still almost no precipitation for several months. Attached is an animation. The result is that almost all the snow is gone! If this keeps up, it will be first time this happened since 2019. Ground is bare and glaciers look awful with a gray/blue color. Melting at full speed.

[kassy]

Thanks for watching that one for us. It does not look good but well we did not expect that.

[grixm]

Taking the opportunity of the snow-free conditions to compare the
Furtwängler glacier with exactly two years ago, when it also was snow free. Click to animate. You can see very clear melting. When we remember to consider the thickness too, it may have even halved in volume or more. It won't be many years at all until it's gone.

[Espen]

With dates:

Please click on image to animate!

[kassy]

Why is there so much less detail in these pictures compared to the more northern ones? It might be satellite trajectories?

[Espen]

Why is there so much less detail in these pictures compared to the more northern ones? It might be satellite trajectories?

Simply because they are extremely small, the animation I made is 6 times the normal resolution?

[grixm]

A full season since last time, and again we find Kilimanjaro completely barren of snow. Glaciers have further melted since last year. Attached is a comparison. In the 2022 image, basically all the white you see in the image is glacier ice rather than snow.

[kassy]

Climate change: No glaciers on Kilimanjaro by 2050


Glaciers across the globe - including the last ones in Africa - will be unavoidably lost by 2050 due to climate change, the UN says in a report.

A third of glaciers located in UN World Heritage sites will melt within three decades, a UNESCO report found.

Mount Kilimanjaro's last glaciers will vanish as will glaciers in the Alps and Yosemite National Park in the US.

They will melt regardless of the world's actions to combat climate change, the authors say.

...

About 18,600 glaciers have been identified across 50 UN World Heritage sites. They represent almost 10% of the Earth's glacierised area and include renowned tourist spots and places sacred to local populations

...

The remaining two thirds of glaciers in UN World Heritage sites could be saved, but only if the world limits global warming to 1.5C, the authors say. Another UN report last week found that the world currently had "no credible pathway" to achieve that.

World Heritage sites listed as having glaciers that will disappear by 2050 are:

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-63489041

See the link for a long list og glaciers.

[Espen]

Interesting details about the remaining glaciers on the border of Uganda and DRC ("Democratic" Republic of Congo):

https://www.thestoryinstitute.com/rwenzori-mountains

[grixm]

Well, the Kilimanjaro glaciers has had a very worrying start of the year.

We are now in the melting season. Normally at this point, snow from the last winter would be slowly melting away faster than it can accumulate, and this will continue all the way until fall/winter again.

The problem? The snow from the previous winter is already gone. The summit and its glaciers is laid completely bare for the sun to eat away at, all summer. I don't believe this has happened this early in the season before. Last year was already pretty bad, and yet it's no comparison to this year. See attached images.

From what I can tell, by the end of this season, the Furtwängler glacier might finally be completely gone.

[kassy]

That looks really bad.

In 2013 it was estimated that at the then-current rate, most of the ice would disappear by 2040 and "it is highly unlikely that any ice body will remain after 2060

By 2018 the size had shrunk to 11,000 m2 (120,000 sq ft). In 2022 it was thought that the glacier would cease to exist by 2023 at a rate of loss of 2,524 m2 (27,170 sq ft) per year.[5]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Furtw%C3%A4ngler_Glacier

It seems  everybody agrees on this one. Anyone near there to put a memorial plaque?

[Espen]

Kilimanjaro Glaciers: An unfolding sad story, there is not much real ice left at the top of Kilimanjaro, and Furtwängler Glacier is down to as little as 5.300 M²?

Please click on the image to enlarge and animate!

[Espen]

Kilimanjaro Glaciers: Furtwängler Glacier (encircled red) lost some 33 % of its area in almost 6 months (Jan 28 - July 12 2023) this particular glacier could be history witin 2 years.

Please click on image to enlarge and animate!

[oren]

And so it goes. Sad.

[Espen]

Update since July 12 2023:
The former grand Furtwängler Glacier of Kilimanjaro is increasingly showing signs of being in the terminal phase. The remains of the glacier is in the process of being divided into 2 halves.

My revised estimate of the final date is moved into next melting season!

Please click on image to enlarge and animate!

[grixm]

A pitiful sight

[grixm]

I tracked down some recent photos from the ground of the Furtwängler glacier. These were taken just a few months ago.

You can clearly see the reason for the splitting. The glacier is much thinner in the middle than at the edges. Hard to judge from the distance exactly how thick it is.

[gerontocrat]

& here is a photo from 1929

[HapHazard]

Damn, that's sad. What about the other peak?

[The Walrus]

As part of my glacial research, I will be on the slopes of Kilimanjaro in three weeks.  I hope to answer some of those questions then.

[Espen]

As part of my glacial research, I will be on the slopes of Kilimanjaro in three weeks.  I hope to answer some of those questions then.

That sounds very interesting, I hope you can come up with some answers regarding the height of the glaciers in the Northern Ice Field and of course Furtwängler Glacier? Looking forward to hear from you, I wish you an interesting trip!

[grixm]

First snowfall of winter. Will it last?
Will also be interesting to see if we see an equally early snow-free spring next year as we saw this year.

[The Walrus]

First snowfall of winter. Will it last?
Will also be interesting to see if we see an equally early snow-free spring next year as we saw this year.

Kilimanjo does not have the same season as the mid-latitudes, due to its proximity to the equator.  Rather it has wet and dry season.  We are currently entering the shorter of the two wet seasons.  Rainfall in the lower regions and snowfall near the peak is common now through the end of December. January and Febraury are the warmest months on the mountain.  The longer rainy season starts in March and continue through June.  The rest of the year is cold and dry.   

[grixm]

First snowfall of winter. Will it last?
Will also be interesting to see if we see an equally early snow-free spring next year as we saw this year.

Kilimanjo does not have the same season as the mid-latitudes, due to its proximity to the equator.  Rather it has wet and dry season.  We are currently entering the shorter of the two wet seasons.  Rainfall in the lower regions and snowfall near the peak is common now through the end of December. January and Febraury are the warmest months on the mountain.  The longer rainy season starts in March and continue through June.  The rest of the year is cold and dry.   

Still, the end result in terms of snow seems to be coincidentally the same as on northern latitudes. At least it has been during the time I've followed it (past 3-4 years). Snow has started accumulating in the fall and lasts until spring, when the snow slowly disappears over the summer until it starts over.

[grixm]

Well, it didn't last after all.  All the snow gone in a week, except that which landed on top of the glaciers. Must be a lot of heat stored in the rocks still.

[The Walrus]

As part of my glacial research, I will be on the slopes of Kilimanjaro in three weeks.  I hope to answer some of those questions then.

That sounds very interesting, I hope you can come up with some answers regarding the height of the glaciers in the Northern Ice Field and of course Furtwängler Glacier? Looking forward to hear from you, I wish you an interesting trip!

Back from a spectacular trip.  The only downside was that the weather did not cooperate fully.  Rains at the lower elevations and snows at the top prevented much trekking.  During the month, I only got two good views of the peak, on the day I arrived and the day I left - the latter being in a plane above the clouds.  There were other times when the clouds parted enough to get a partial glimpse of the top.

The current rainy season, which started back in October, has brought an abundance of both rain and snow.  Our guides had to scramble to find rocks to enable us to cross some of the rivers, which were running quite high - something they told us that they never had to do before.  Most of my conclusions are anecdotal due to the lack of measurement opportunities.  Aerial surveys provided qualitative expanses of the ice fields, but not quantitative analyses.  Teams were anxious to get up there to ascertain the true nature of the snows.  At this time, they may need to wait until late December.  Still, it was quite informative and very exciting.

The experts (not me) are crediting the switch from La Nina to El Nino conditions to account for the extensive rain/snowfall.  The surrounding area (Kenya and Tanzania) had been in a moderate drought for the past three years (corresponding to the La Ninas).  When I arrived, the landscape was lush with vegetation and the snowpack was already growing.  There was general excitement throughout the teams regarding the new snows.  The climbers were less excited, as their summits were significantly delayed, due to the storms.  They were complaining that the climbs were the most difficult in recent years.  I was told later that these were the amateur climbers, and that the more serious ones tend to arrive in January.

There is still wide concern that the snows will disappear some day.  Many feel that the current optimism is just temporary, and the recent snows will melt away in 2024.  Others think that a prolonged El Nino will replenish what has been lost over the past few years.  La Ninas tend to generate sunnier conditions, leading to greater melt (according to those with whom I conversed).
 Overall, the past decade has witnessed less glacial reduction that the previous ones.  This has tempered the pessimism of some who predicted the snows would have disappeared by now.  Others still believe that the glaciers will be gone by 2040.  Others disagree.

It was a fascinating trip.  I wish I had more answers for you (and me), but it was quite enlightening.  Also, I did take a break from the mountain to visit the Serengeti and the crater.  Made the trip even more fabulous.

[grixm]

That is interesting. I hadn't actually considered that the drop in average snow cover of the last few years could have been related to the La Niña.

[grixm]

Yearly Kilimanjaro update.
This year had more snow than last year, there is still some remaining despite the melting season being almost over.

Nevertheless, that didn't stop the glaciers from melting further. Sadly the Furtwängler Glacier is looking almost dead, it has split in two and you wouldn't even be able to tell it from a tiny patch of snow if you didn't know it was there. Maybe it will be gone next year.

The other glaciers, especially the big one to the north, also retreated. One long and thin section of the northern glacier has split off from the main body and also looks to be gone within a year or two if the current pace continues.

I've attached an animation comparing this and last year, marking the two spots I mentioned.

[Espen]

A closer look at Furtwängler Glacier:

Please click on image to animate!