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Author Topic: September predictions challenge 2019  (Read 3950 times)

Richard Rathbone

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Re: September predictions challenge 2019
« Reply #50 on: August 05, 2019, 08:06:17 PM »
Jaxa: 3.75-4.25, Medium
NSIDC 4.0 - 4.5, Medium



Jaxa 3.25-3.75, M
NSIDC 3.5 - 4.0, M


JAXA 3.5-4.0 H
NSIDC 3.75 - 4.25 H

PIOMAS indicates to me that a record is still just about on, Slater looks 4.25 ish though I won't see the Aug 1st prediction for SIPN till after poll deadlines. Last year I was toying with VH at this stage, this year I'm wondering if I should have stuck with M. Just how massive is the momentum from June that carries the melt for the last month before the minimum? Has it dissipated, does it need a GAC to push the ice out over the hot water?

Juan C. García

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Re: September predictions challenge 2019
« Reply #51 on: August 09, 2019, 06:04:57 AM »
My June predictions:

JAXA: 3.5 to 4.0, médium confidence
NSIDC: 3.75 to 4.25, médium confidence
My July predictions:

JAXA: 3.25 to 3.75, high confidence
NSIDC: 3.75 to 4.25, high confidence
My August predictions:

JAXA: 3.50 to 4.00, very high confidence
NSIDC: 4.00 to 4.50, very high confidence


P.S. Only ~1.5 days to vote or change your vote...
Am I right? Or we will have more time on this challenge?  ???
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Paddy

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Re: September predictions challenge 2019
« Reply #52 on: August 09, 2019, 08:02:06 AM »
My June predictions are as follows:
JAXA: 3.75 to 4.25, medium
NSIDC: 4.25 to 4.75, medium

My July predictions are as follows:
JAXA: 3.75 to 4.25, medium
NSIDC: 4.0 to 4.5, medium


Droping my JAXA bin a half step further to 3.5 - 4.0.  Still Medium confidence.

My August predictions are as follows:
JAXA: 3.5 to 4.0, high
NSIDC: 3.75 to 4.25, high

Deadline for entries is the 15th of the month, as per precedent.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2019, 02:57:45 AM by Paddy »

Stephan

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Re: September predictions challenge 2019
« Reply #53 on: August 09, 2019, 10:16:33 AM »
My prediction (JAXA Sep minimum): 3.75-4,25 M km², high confidence
My prediction (NSIDC Sep Average): 4.00-4.50 M km², high confidence
I repeat this prediction, both values with high confidence.

slow wing

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Re: September predictions challenge 2019
« Reply #54 on: August 10, 2019, 05:37:50 AM »
JAXA:     3.50 to 4.00,  medium (minimum day extent)
NSIDC:   4.00 to 4.50,  medium (September average extent)

oren

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Re: September predictions challenge 2019
« Reply #55 on: August 10, 2019, 08:53:58 AM »
For July:
Dropping JAXA to 3.25-3.75 and increasing conf to High. I think a finish above 4M has become quite improbable, and below 3M extremely difficult.
Also dropping NSIDC to 3.75-4.25, keeping Medium conf.
Keeping the same for August. My best daily bet is 3.50-4.00 but I still see an option of going below, with very low chances of going above, so I'm skewing my bin accordingly.

Neven

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Re: September predictions challenge 2019
« Reply #56 on: August 10, 2019, 10:37:17 PM »
My June predictions are as follows:
JAXA: 3.5 to 4.0, medium
NSIDC: 4.0 to 4.5, medium

For July, it's the following, dropping two bins:

JAXA: 3.0 to 3.5, medium
NSIDC: 3.5 to 4.0, high

And for August, it's:

JAXA: 3.25 to 3.75, high
NSIDC: 3.75 to 4.25, high
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Aluminium

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Re: September predictions challenge 2019
« Reply #57 on: August 11, 2019, 08:37:31 PM »
JAXA: 3.5-4.0 high.
NSIDC: 4.0-4.5 medium.
JAXA: 3.5-4.0 high.
NSIDC: 3.75-4.25 high.
JAXA: 3.5-4.0 very high.
NSIDC: 3.75-4.25 high.

"Very high" is as attractive as the red button "do not press". :)

Juan C. García

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Re: September predictions challenge 2019
« Reply #58 on: August 12, 2019, 04:39:11 AM »
"Very high" is as attractive as the red button "do not press". :)
It is the gambler choice: win all or lose all.  8)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: September predictions challenge 2019
« Reply #59 on: August 12, 2019, 07:39:43 PM »
Jaxa: 3.75-4.25, Medium
NSIDC 4.0 - 4.5, Medium



Jaxa 3.25-3.75, M
NSIDC 3.5 - 4.0, M


I'm adjusting my August entry to
NSIDC  4.0-4.5 H
on the basis of Slater 50-day showing probable extent back up to 5 by the end of September. Sticking with
JAXA 3.5 - 4.0 H.

Brigantine

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Re: September predictions challenge 2019
« Reply #60 on: August 14, 2019, 06:25:03 AM »
June:
JAXA 3.75 - 4.25 medium confidence
NSIDC 4.25 - 4.75 medium confidence
July:
JAXA 3.50 - 4.00 high confidence
NSIDC 4.00 - 4.50 high confidence
August: (provisional)
JAXA 3.50 - 4.00 high confidence
NSIDC 3.75 - 4.25 high confidence
« Last Edit: August 14, 2019, 06:34:05 AM by Brigantine »

Steven

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Re: September predictions challenge 2019
« Reply #61 on: August 14, 2019, 09:01:30 PM »
JAXA minimum extent:       3.5 to 4.0,  medium confidence
NSIDC September extent: 4.0 to 4.5,  medium confidence

JAXA:     3.25 to 3.75,  medium
NSIDC:  3.75 to 4.25,  medium

August:

JAXA:     3.5  to 4.0,    high
NSIDC:  3.75 to 4.25,  high

AndyW

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Re: September predictions challenge 2019
« Reply #62 on: August 15, 2019, 03:10:44 PM »
About 4 million

Not that it matters, the long term trends are what matters.  So I will not be losing any sleep over it.


Paddy

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Re: September predictions challenge 2019
« Reply #63 on: August 16, 2019, 11:56:17 AM »
Now that this is closed, I could potentially calculate the scores resulting from each ultimate outcome... but I think that sounds like a bit too much work. If anyone else wants to, they should feel free, however.