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gerontocrat

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Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« Reply #200 on: June 07, 2023, 08:43:41 PM »
Graph attached -

One day the world might see a reduction in demand for "Natural" gas. But that day is not here yet
One day the producers and distributors and users might be forced to reduce methane emissions. But that day is not here yet?

click image to enlarge
« Last Edit: June 07, 2023, 08:48:50 PM by gerontocrat »
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Stephan

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Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« Reply #201 on: July 07, 2023, 09:35:45 PM »
NOAA has published its latest monthly CH4 average.

March 2023:       1920.74 ppb
March 2022:       1908.97 ppb
March 2013:       1812.8 ppb
Last updated: Jul 05, 2023

The annual increase is at 11.5 ppb based on the March 2022 value I noted in July 2022 (this would be the lowest increase rate since April 2020). A corrected value for February 2022 gives an increase of 11.8 ppb which is slightly above the 10 y average of 10.8 ppb/a, but the lowest annual increase since April 2020.

I set an index = 100 for the 1980 average [1601.2 ppb]. March 2023 is at 120.0 compared to that index.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« Reply #202 on: July 07, 2023, 10:58:08 PM »
& here is the graph...
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kiwichick16

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Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« Reply #203 on: July 13, 2023, 11:40:41 AM »

Stephan

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Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« Reply #204 on: August 08, 2023, 07:44:00 PM »
With a delay of three days NOAA has published its latest monthly CH4 average.

April 2023:       1922.20 ppb
April 2022:       1909.38 ppb
April 2013:       1812.9 ppb
Last updated: Aug 05, 2023

The annual increase is at 12.3 ppb based on the April 2022 value I noted in August 2022 (this would be the second lowest increase rate since April 2020). A corrected value for February 2022 gives an increase of 12.8 ppb which is slightly above the 10 y average of 10.9 ppb/a.
It seems to me that the extraordinary increase of CH4, observed in the last years, has finished now.

I set an index = 100 for the 1980 average [1601.2 ppb]. April 2023 is at 120.0 compared to that index.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« Reply #205 on: August 08, 2023, 09:41:23 PM »
& here is the graph

Unlike Stephan, I am not yet convinced that we have seen the last of large monthly increases in CH4 emissions for two reasons. The fossil fuel industry is actively increasing production in many places in the world some (many?) poorly regulated. Secondly I am yet to be convinced that AGW (of the atmosphere and cold shallow seas) will not lead to significant increases in methane release (melting permafrost, retreating glaciers, warming of clathrate caps over methane sources in shallow arctic seas).

click image to enlarge
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sidd

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Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« Reply #206 on: August 18, 2023, 07:41:20 AM »
Nice paper by Nisbet et al.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GB007875

I have been following the isotopic shifts in methane for a long time, i expect it will drop further as arctic sources kick off with peatland decomposition.

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kiwichick16

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Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« Reply #207 on: August 18, 2023, 12:27:25 PM »
@  sidd   ..... not sure that  "nice" is an accurate description

sidd

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Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« Reply #208 on: August 18, 2023, 11:49:57 PM »
I think the paper is a nice paper. The implications, not so much.

sidd

Richard Rathbone

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Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« Reply #209 on: August 19, 2023, 12:46:52 AM »
I think the paper is a nice paper. The implications, not so much.

sidd
Agreed. Thanks for posting it.

kiwichick16

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Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« Reply #210 on: August 19, 2023, 08:24:20 AM »
@  sidd   +1    .....better to have information then to be ignorant of what is happening

kassy

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Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« Reply #211 on: August 19, 2023, 09:55:23 AM »
The short version:

Quote
Abstract
Atmospheric methane's rapid growth from late 2006 is unprecedented in the observational record. Assessment of atmospheric methane data attributes a large fraction of this atmospheric growth to increased natural emissions over the tropics, which appear to be responding to changes in anthropogenic climate forcing. Isotopically lighter measurements of urn:x-wiley:08866236:media:gbc21450:gbc21450-math-0001 are consistent with the recent atmospheric methane growth being mainly driven by an increase in emissions from microbial sources, particularly wetlands. The global methane budget is currently in disequilibrium and new inputs are as yet poorly quantified. Although microbial emissions from agriculture and waste sources have increased between 2006 and 2022 by perhaps 35 Tg/yr, with wide uncertainty, approximately another 35–45 Tg/yr of the recent net growth in methane emissions may have been driven by natural biogenic processes, especially wetland feedbacks to climate change. A model comparison shows that recent changes may be comparable or greater in scale and speed than methane's growth and isotopic shift during past glacial/interglacial termination events. It remains possible that methane's current growth is within the range of Holocene variability, but it is also possible that methane's recent growth and isotopic shift may indicate a large-scale reorganization of the natural climate and biosphere is under way.

Key Points
The rapid growth in the atmospheric methane burden that began in late 2006 is very different from methane's past observational record

Recent studies point to strongly increased emissions from wetlands, especially in the tropics

This increase is comparable in scale and speed to glacial/interglacial terminations when the global climate system suddenly reorganized
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sidd

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Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« Reply #212 on: August 20, 2023, 09:10:58 AM »
Nisbet is open access, should have mentioned. Read all about it, especially the isotopic shift.

33 pages, not so bad, but not counting supplementaries.

sidd

Sublime_Rime

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Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« Reply #213 on: September 06, 2023, 05:38:20 PM »
Looks like we have another round of monthly updates from NOAA. Don't want to steal Stephan's thunder, but looks like the annual increase for CH4 is increased relative to previous month (now 14.46ppb). Based on Copernicus data I wouldn't be surprised if this trend continues...
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RoxTheGeologist

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Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« Reply #214 on: September 06, 2023, 06:49:23 PM »


I have become increasingly worried about the isotopic shift (my first job was as a stable isotope geochemist). We have to watch the emission hotspot at the southern end of the Hudson Bay. If it expands, we are in *real* trouble.

gerontocrat

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Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« Reply #215 on: September 06, 2023, 07:33:03 PM »
I am sure Stephan will get around to doing the full set - my graphs are waiting. But here is the CH4 graph anyway.

And below is an extract from a paper from 2020 (data from 2017)  + an attached figure showing the CH4 sources and sinks. Worth a read as it describes the uncertainties in many of the measurements and a warning on Arctic methane release. Use of isotopic measurements is also mentioned.

The attached table shows agriculture & waste as the major source of anthropogenic CH4 emissions, while most media attention is on the much smaller emissions from the fossil fuel industries. Sigh.

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9ed2?ref=lightson.news
Increasing anthropogenic methane emissions arise equally from agricultural and fossil fuel sources
[
Quote
b]5. Conclusions[/b]
Methane emissions have continued to rise over the past decade and are tracking concentrations most consistent with the warmest marker scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (RCP8.5, a representative concentration pathway) that yields an estimated global warming of 4.3 °C by year 2100 (Saunois et al 2016b, 2020, Nisbet et al 2019). Current trajectories in socioeconomic development also suggest the world is likely to follow IPCC Shared Socioeconomic pathways (SSP) leading to relatively higher emission trajectories over the next decade (Saunois et al 2020). Estimates for 2018 and 2019 show increases in atmospheric methane of 8.5 and 10.7 ppb, respectively, two of the four highest annual growth rates since 2000 (Dlugokencky 2020).

Increased emissions from both the agriculture and waste sector and the fossil fuel sector are likely the dominant cause of this global increase (figures 1 and 4), highlighting the need for stronger mitigation in both areas. Our analysis also highlights emission increases in agriculture, waste, and fossil fuel sectors from southern and southeastern Asia, including China, as well as increases in the fossil fuel sector in the United States (figure 4). In contrast, Europe is the only continent in which methane emissions appear to be decreasing. While changes in the sink of methane from atmospheric or soil uptake remains possible (Turner et al 2019), atmospheric chemistry and land-surface models suggest the timescales for sink responses are too slow to explain most of the increased methane in the atmosphere in recent years. Climate policies overall, where present for methane mitigation, have yet to alter substantially the global emissions trajectory to date.
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kassy

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Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« Reply #216 on: September 06, 2023, 10:46:17 PM »
We also have a big spike in methane from mid latitude lakes and rivers in the mix recently:

Although microbial emissions from agriculture and waste sources have increased between 2006 and 2022 by perhaps 35 Tg/yr, with wide uncertainty, approximately another 35–45 Tg/yr of the recent net growth in methane emissions may have been driven by natural biogenic processes, especially wetland feedbacks to climate change.

All the other things we could theoretically change but for this one we don´t know how large the effect is going to be but:

This increase is comparable in scale and speed to glacial/interglacial terminations when the global climate system suddenly reorganized

And it might be the mechanism that kicks the warming along. If higher temperatures in these water bodies increases methane production that increases short term warming which also heats them more.
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Sublime_Rime

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Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« Reply #217 on: September 06, 2023, 11:12:46 PM »
So the oversimplified version is:

hot and wet = methane, you bet
hot and dry = CO2's gonna fly
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Stephan

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Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« Reply #218 on: September 07, 2023, 09:18:17 PM »
Here is - a little belated, on Wednesdays I come home after 21:30 h - the latest monthly CH4 average from NOAA:

May 2023:       1922.26 ppb
May 2022:       1907.80 ppb
May 2013:       1812.1 ppb
Last updated: Sep 05, 2023

The annual increase is at 13.5 ppb based on the May 2022 value I noted in September 2022. A corrected value for May 2022 gives an increase of 14.5 ppb/a which is above the 10 y average of 11.0 ppb/a.
It seems to me that the extraordinary increase of CH4, observed in the last years, has finished now.

I set an index = 100 for the 1980 average [1601.2 ppb]. May 2023 is at 120.1 compared to that index.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Stephan

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Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« Reply #219 on: October 11, 2023, 07:17:53 PM »
Finally the latest CH4 monthly average is available.

June 2023:       1917.11 ppb
June 2022:       1905.19 ppb
June 2013:       1808.7 ppb
Last updated: Oct 05, 2023

The annual increase is at 11.0 ppb based on the June 2022 value I noted in October 2022. A corrected value for June 2022 gives an increase of 11.9 ppb/a which is (a little bit) above the 10 y average of 10.8 ppb/a and - apart from March 2023 - the lowest increase rate since March 2020.
It seems to me that the extraordinary increase of CH4, observed in the last years, has finished now.

I set an index = 100 for the 1980 average [1601.2 ppb]. June 2023 is at 119.7 compared to that index.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« Reply #220 on: October 11, 2023, 09:48:55 PM »
& here is the graph.

The last period of relatively low annual CH4 gains was from mid-2016 to early 2020. Although recent annual gains are also relatively low, they are well above that earlier period. In other words, as time goes by, even the low annual changes are increasing - since mid-2005.

It seems to me that the ever-increasing annual change polynomial trend line still has legs. Though if we are lucky and the fossil fuel industry actually gets to work on methane fugitive emissions, Stephan will be right when he writes "It seems to me that the extraordinary increase of CH4, observed in the last years, has finished now".
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Stephan

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Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« Reply #221 on: October 13, 2023, 06:02:05 PM »
Thank you - as always - for the graphs.
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Stephan

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Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« Reply #222 on: November 06, 2023, 06:47:04 PM »
The latest CH4 monthly average is available.

July 2023:       1915.25 ppb
July 2022:       1904.42 ppb
July 2013:       1805.9 ppb
Last updated: Nov 05, 2023

The annual increase is at 10.7 ppb based on the July 2022 value I noted in November 2022. A corrected value for July 2022 gives an increase of 10.8 ppb/a which is close to the 10 y average of 10.9 ppb/a and the lowest increase rate since April 2020.
It seems to me that the extraordinary increase of CH4, observed in the last years, has finished now.

I set an index = 100 for the 1980 average [1601.2 ppb]. July 2023 is at 119.6 compared to that index.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« Reply #223 on: November 06, 2023, 08:36:23 PM »
& here is the graph

click image to enlarge
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Stephan

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Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« Reply #224 on: December 05, 2023, 10:18:55 PM »
It is the fifth of a new month, and NOAA has published the latest CH4 monthly average.

August 2023:       1919.41 ppb
August 2022:       1908.78 ppb
August 2013:       1807.8 ppb
Last updated: Dec 05, 2023

The annual increase is at 10.8 ppb based on the August 2022 value I noted in December 2022. A corrected value for August 2022 gives an increase of 10.6 ppb/a which is lower than the 10 y average of 11.2 ppb/a and the lowest increase rate since March 2020.

I set an index = 100 for the 1980 average [1601.2 ppb]. August 2023 is at 119.9 compared to that index.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« Reply #225 on: December 06, 2023, 09:41:33 AM »
& here is the graph
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Stephan

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Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« Reply #226 on: December 07, 2023, 06:15:50 AM »
Thank you, as always, for the beautiful graphs.
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Stephan

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Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« Reply #227 on: January 05, 2024, 08:53:37 PM »
It is the fifth of a new month. Therefore the latest monthly global CH4 is available.

September 2023:       1927.35 ppb
September 2022:       1915.44 ppb
September 2013:       1813.4 ppb
Last updated: Jan 05, 2024

It is the highest methane concentration ever recorded by NOAA (2.36 ppb above Dec 2022).
The annual increase is at 11.5 ppb based on the September 2022 value I noted in January 2023. A corrected value for September 2022 gives an increase of 11.9 ppb/a which a bit above the 10 y average of 11.4 ppb/a, but still below the average increase rate of the years 2020-2022.

I set an index = 100 for the 1980 average [1601.2 ppb]. September 2023 is at 120.4 compared to that index.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« Reply #228 on: January 05, 2024, 11:21:26 PM »
& here is the graph...
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Stephan

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Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« Reply #229 on: February 05, 2024, 09:46:49 PM »
It is the fifth of a new month. Therefore the latest monthly global CH4 is available.

October 2023:       1933.46 ppb
October 2022:       1920.16 ppb
October 2013:       1818.4 ppb
Last updated: Feb 05, 2024

It is the highest methane concentration ever recorded by NOAA.
The annual increase is at 13.1 ppb based on the October 2022 value I noted in February 2023. A corrected value for October 2022 gives an increase of 13.3 ppb/a which a bit above the 10 y average of 11.5 ppb/a, but still below the average increase rate of the years 2020-2022.

I set an index = 100 for the 1980 average [1601.2 ppb]. October 2023 is at 120.8 compared to that index.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« Reply #230 on: February 05, 2024, 10:25:18 PM »
& here is the graphs to October 23

click image to enlarge
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neal

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Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« Reply #231 on: February 12, 2024, 03:53:42 PM »
Emission of methane GHG during production and overseas transport for export exceed GHG emission at final use..

....In all of the scenarios considered, across all types of tankers used to transport LNG, these upstream emissions exceed the emissions of carbon dioxide from the final combustion of LNG.  Also in all the scenarios considered, total emissions of unburned methane exceed emissions of carbon dioxide from the final combustion of LNG.  Carbon dioxide emissions other than from this final combustion are significant, but smaller than the carbon dioxide from the final combustion.  The greenhouse gas footprint of LNG is always larger than for natural gas consumed domestically, because of the large amount of energy needed, particularly to liquefy and transport the LNG. While some proponents of LNG have argued it has a climate benefit by replacing coal, the analysis presented here indicates otherwise.  Total greenhouse gas emissions from LNG are larger than those
from domestically produced coal, ranging from 27% to 2‐fold greater for the average cruise distance of an LNG tanker... 


https://www.research.howarthlab.org/publications/Howarth_LNG_assessment_preprint_archived_2023-1103.pdf
« Last Edit: February 12, 2024, 03:59:40 PM by neal »

Stephan

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Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« Reply #232 on: March 06, 2024, 06:12:57 AM »
It is the fifth of a new month. Therefore the latest monthly global CH4 is available.

November 2023:       1934.16 ppb
November 2022:       1923.63 ppb
November 2013:       1820.6 ppb
Last updated: Feb 05, 2024

It is the highest methane concentration ever recorded by NOAA.
The annual increase is at 10.6 ppb based on the November 2022 value I noted in March 2023. A corrected value for November 2022 gives an increase of 10.5 ppb/a which is below the 10 y average of 11.4 ppb/a, and below the average increase rate of the years 2020-2022.

I set an index = 100 for the 1980 average [1601.2 ppb]. November 2023 is at 120.8 compared to that index.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« Reply #233 on: March 06, 2024, 08:51:28 AM »
& here is the graph

click image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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