There was I thinking that the growing SSTs in Baffin Bay might significantly impact melt in, e.g. the Parry Channel. But now it looks probably only a little bit?
Because I read (1) that the top 200 metres of the Beaufort Sea is relatively fresh compared with that in Baffin Bay and that the Beaufort sea level is about 0.3 metres higher than Baffin bay so flow is from the Beaufort to the Baffin.
In that paper from 2012 I also see a diagram showing modelled September ice extent and flows.
The Beaufort and CAA are assumed to be pretty much still full up ice. Is the model still valid?
Then I read (2)
5. Driving Mechanisms of Volume Flow Through
the CAA
5.1. The Role of Sea Surface Height
[39] The SSH difference between the Arctic Ocean and
Baffin Bay (Figure 7b) not only leads to a net outflow from
the Arctic Ocean, its variability also drives the variation of
the CAA throughflow. Annual mean volume transports
though Lancaster Sound and Nares Strait are significantly
correlated with the along strait SSH gradients
and that is just the first few words that a long time later end up with....
The variability of the CAA transports is related to the large-scale atmospheric forcing pattern characterized by the NAO. Responses to the positive and negative phases of the NAO can be observed both in the Beaufort Sea and in the Labrador Sea. In the positive NAO phase, the atmospheric circulation over the western Arctic Ocean is mainly in the cyclonic phase [see, e.g., Proshutinsky et al., 2002], leading to a loss in the freshwater storage in the Beaufort Gyre and an increase in SSH along the American coast, and thus increased volume transport through Lancaster Sound. In the Labrador Sea the strong cooling during the NAO positive phase results in low sea level, which propagates northward along the west Greenland coast and leads to higher
transports through Nares Strait and Lancaster Sound.
Conclusion:-I have not a clue as to the comparative importance of melting in situ and transport by currents has in opening up the NW Passage in the CAA.
I have not a clue as to whether the current state of the NAO is increasing flows through the CAA
It was an interesting read but beyond my pay grade, and gives me not a clue as to when the NW Passage will open. Ho hum.
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(1)
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/07055900.2012.704348Flow Constraints on Pathways through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago
July 2012(2)
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/jgrc.20330The Canadian Arctic Archipelago throughflow in a multiresolution
global model : Model assessment and the driving mechanism of
interannual variability
July 2013
Poll