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When will "small vessels" first be able to traverse the Northwest Passage in 2019?

July 1 -15
3 (3.7%)
July 16 - 31
16 (19.8%)
August 1 -15
14 (17.3%)
August 16 - 31
29 (35.8%)
September 1 - 15
15 (18.5%)
September 16 -30
1 (1.2%)
Extremely late in the season
0 (0%)
No way Jose!
3 (3.7%)

Total Members Voted: 78

Voting closed: July 15, 2019, 11:11:52 AM

Author Topic: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?  (Read 27071 times)

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #100 on: July 27, 2019, 12:04:30 AM »
Very clear weather, light contrast enhancement. Large to show detail


Wow, looks more like a debris field. Some rapid melting going on, and a lot of the ice has an unhealthy color. Only one small part of the CAA is holding up.

gerontocrat

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #101 on: August 03, 2019, 05:20:03 PM »
I voted for the first half of August, and for quite some time regretted it.
But now?

- Area loss accelerating day by day, and area now below the 2010's average.
- The temperature anomaly is +ve by quite a bit for the next week or so,
-Only need a little more strong melt tp take a southerly route,
i.e from Baffin Bay up the Parry Channel, take the 1st or 2nd left, and then turn right along the Canadian mainland shore.

It is even possible the main Parry Channel could open later?

So confidence increased - though could be misplaced

Things attached, including a short gif - click to start.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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petm

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #102 on: August 03, 2019, 05:41:08 PM »

oren

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #103 on: August 03, 2019, 05:58:08 PM »
It can't open without Jim Hunt declaring it so!

vox_mundi

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #104 on: August 03, 2019, 05:59:27 PM »
Climate Change is Luring Cruise Ships to Sail Risky Arctic Passages
https://qz.com/1679630/climate-change-lures-cruise-ships-to-sail-risky-arctic-passages/

August 1, 2019: On August 27, 2010, in Canadian waters above the Arctic Circle, a cruise ship called the Clipper Adventurer ran aground on a rock no one knew was there. Two hundred passengers and crew had set out on an adventure few tourists have experienced: a journey through the Northwest Passage.

The ship, a 295-foot (90-meter) vessel operated by the travel company Adventure Canada, struck the rock early on a Friday evening. The closest humans were in coastal Kugluktuk, 55 miles away, a mostly Inuit community of about 1,400 people in the Canadian Arctic region of Nunavut. A Canadian icebreaker, surveying waters 500 miles away, changed course to conduct a rescue operation. It arrived on Sunday.

Weather was calm but that’s hardly a given that far north, where storms and extreme conditions can roll in quickly. In the vast Canadian Arctic, fewer than 10% of the waters are charted. As more ships brave the territory—encouraged by passageways thawed by temperatures rising faster than anywhere else on Earth—the likelihood of a dangerous grounding increases.

The Edmonton Sun interviewed the owner of the tour company who was quoted saying: "we were simply following the chart that we had and right where there wasn’t any indication that there was something in the water, there was this large rock.”  (... Surprise!)



Canada, which used to expect just a few yacht voyages a year, is now dealing with almost two dozen. Vessels of all kinds—including cargo ships—are on the rise too, and the number of trips taken in Canadian Arctic waters nearly doubled in the last decade.

https://www.theatlas.com/charts/xbKAW0C86

In August 2018, another cruise ship struck a rock, also off the coast of Nunavut. The ship, operated by Canadian cruise company One Ocean Expeditions, was carrying 162 passengers and crew. The rescue operation cost the Canadian armed forces half a million dollars.

Just this March, a cruise ship’s engines broke down off the coast of Norway with more than 1,300 passengers on board. Helicopter rescue teams managed to airlift 500 people off the ship, and it was headed for a collision with rocks while 800 people were still on board, Byers says. By a stroke of luck, the ship’s crew managed to restart the engine before that could happen. But the near-miss signals another problem: “When you talk about large ships, you just can’t get people off in time,” he says.

---------------------

Arctic Cruise Ship Owners Ordered to Pay $469K in Costs for 2010 Grounding
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/cruise-ship-clipper-adventurer-nunavut-judgement-1.3973937

-------------

Other 'groundings': http://www.komar.org/faq/travel/vacation/antarctica/ocean-nova/ 
« Last Edit: August 03, 2019, 07:18:44 PM by vox_mundi »
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petm

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #105 on: August 03, 2019, 06:09:17 PM »
Where is Jim Hunt anyways? Is the Chukchi surfing too good to make time for posting?

P-maker

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #106 on: August 03, 2019, 06:45:34 PM »
petm,

you are genuinely a pita (pain in the ass). If Jim wants to join in, he will do so. Leave it there. Enjoy the surf, relax, have a good life. Please don't disturb other people, unless you have something meaningful to say.

Have a nice weekend

P

petm

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #107 on: August 03, 2019, 06:52:37 PM »
Well I'm sorry that I expressed how I miss Jim Hunt's posts. What a terrible thing to do. Thanks for your meta-wrong comment on not disturbing others by sending a direct and completely uncalled for insult my way. Jerk.

philopek

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #108 on: August 03, 2019, 06:53:48 PM »
petm,

you are genuinely a pita (pain in the ass). If Jim wants to join in, he will do so. Leave it there. Enjoy the surf, relax, have a good life. Please don't disturb other people, unless you have something meaningful to say.

Have a nice weekend

P

So much sensitivity about a joke of a reputable person about someone with a renown sense of humor?

Each day I learn here but also each day I'm surprised as to what's walking upright, no wonder we can't build a front against trumpists and the likes because the are united in their love for booze, guns, Pick-Ups. cowboy boots, belts, hats and the likes ;) ;)

blumenkraft

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #109 on: August 03, 2019, 07:15:06 PM »
Well I'm sorry that I expressed how I miss Jim Hunt's posts. What a terrible thing to do.

I'm also not sorry for missing Jim and expressing it hereby.
Refugees welcome

Killian

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #110 on: August 04, 2019, 03:28:16 PM »
If this rate of ice decomp continues, three days? Maybe Aug 6th or 7th?

gerontocrat

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #111 on: August 05, 2019, 03:39:29 PM »
Satisfactory progress to a 1st half of August opening continues
- daily area loss remains high, and area now below the 2010's average.
- The temperature anomaly is still +ve by quite a bit for the next week or so,
- Only need a little more strong melt tp open a southerly route,
i.e from Baffin Bay up the Parry Channel, take the 1st or 2nd left, and then turn right along the Canadian mainland shore.
- It is even possible the main Parry Channel could open later?

Things attached, including a short gif.
_______________________________________________
ps Attached is thickness graph to 31 July (PIOMAS volume divided by NSIDC area).
It indicates thickness was declining even when area loss was stalled - i.e. melt was happening.
An illustration of how actual melt can be independent of area and extent measurements?

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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uniquorn

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #112 on: August 06, 2019, 08:16:00 PM »
polarview, Prince Gustav Adolf Sea, yesterday. https://www.polarview.aq/arctic

Sterks

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #113 on: August 06, 2019, 08:23:45 PM »
Well I'm sorry that I expressed how I miss Jim Hunt's posts. What a terrible thing to do. Thanks for your meta-wrong comment on not disturbing others by sending a direct and completely uncalled for insult my way. Jerk.
lol
Well said.

Sterks

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #114 on: August 06, 2019, 08:27:42 PM »
Please don't disturb other people, unless you have something meaningful to say.
... apply this philosophy to yourself.

be cause

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #115 on: August 06, 2019, 08:29:51 PM »
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2759.0;attach=129222;image

 is the CAA ice really averaging only 20cm thick atm vs 1.8m thick in the 2000's ? .. that is amazing ! .. complete melt out should be imminent .. as shocking as losing the CAB . Why was the 2000's graph so different to more recent years ?   b.c.

ps .. thanks Sterks for adding such value to the thread ..
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

uniquorn

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #116 on: August 06, 2019, 08:59:32 PM »
Another way of looking at it, percentage of max volume remaining, CAA.

gerontocrat

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #117 on: August 06, 2019, 09:13:56 PM »
Is the CAA ice really averaging only 20cm thick atm vs 1.8m thick in the 2000's ? .. that is amazing ! .. complete melt out should be imminent .. as shocking as losing the CAB . Why was the 2000's graph so different to more recent years ?   b.c.
Looking at the smaller seas these 2000's high measurements are quite common. Beware as maybe there were some problems in those earlier years in the summer measurements in these small seas.

The rule seems to be that the bigger the sea and the greater the volume the more reliable the thickness data is. I am more confident about the 2019 data for the CAA than the 2000's data.

BUT - remember it is an average. Much of the southern part of the CAA is melted out, much of the middle down to 50 % and still some lumps of deep purple on the Bremen image here and there. It only needs one lump towards the eastern end of the Parry Channel to block all routes.  (A small patch of rubbish ice in the Kara/Laptev border blocked the Northern sea route for...ages.

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Tor Bejnar

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #118 on: August 06, 2019, 09:18:33 PM »
Nearly a quarter of the brave souls who voted in this poll were premature in their expectations.  (But God bless 'em for voting; it'll make the others look better!  :o)
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

petm

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #119 on: August 06, 2019, 10:19:31 PM »
If the darn clouds would move out of the way, I have a feeling the southern route may be about to open.

Sterks

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #120 on: August 06, 2019, 11:43:15 PM »
ps .. thanks Sterks for adding such value to the thread ..
Yeah, one liners, learning from the best  :P

petm

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #121 on: August 07, 2019, 05:41:31 AM »
Latest Bremen confirms (despite cloud interference) that the southern route is still clearing fast and very close to opening.


binntho

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #122 on: August 07, 2019, 07:13:17 AM »
That ice thickness graph is scary!
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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Alphabet Hotel

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #123 on: August 07, 2019, 07:35:38 AM »
I would really like to see someone take the route through the Fury and Hecla Strait this year.

Jim Hunt

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #124 on: August 07, 2019, 11:38:41 AM »
It can't open without Jim Hunt declaring it so!

For some strange reason my ears are burning!

The Canadian Ice Service is still showing 9-10 tenths concentration sea ice blocking the way:

https://iceweb1.cis.ec.gc.ca/Prod/page2.xhtml?CanID=11090

However it looks as though Randall Reeves expects the way to be clear by the time Moli gets to Bellot Strait.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

petm

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #125 on: August 07, 2019, 05:27:24 PM »
However it looks as though Randall Reeves expects the way to be clear by the time Moli gets to Bellot Strait.

Looks amazing!
http://figure8voyage.com/figure-8-map/

uniquorn

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #126 on: August 08, 2019, 12:59:02 AM »
Nearly time for itp89 to stretch it's 'legs'  https://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=148096

petm

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #127 on: August 08, 2019, 06:40:18 AM »
Maybe a couple more days...


oren

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #128 on: August 08, 2019, 10:51:21 AM »
I think the ice to the north will migrate south once the southernmost ice melts, delaying the opening of the passage through Bellot Strait.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #129 on: August 08, 2019, 06:54:02 PM »
I think the ice to the north will migrate south once the southernmost ice melts, delaying the opening of the passage through Bellot Strait.

I like your analysis, Oren; maybe because I voted for the 2nd half of August.

Please can someone get out there and push some flows south??

philopek

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #130 on: August 08, 2019, 10:20:52 PM »
I think the ice to the north will migrate south once the southernmost ice melts, delaying the opening of the passage through Bellot Strait.

I like your analysis, Oren; maybe because I voted for the 2nd half of August.

Please can someone get out there and push some flows south??

For most of the time I can see winds heading from south to north more likely than the other way, therefore i doubt that.

Nevertheless some of the ice appears to be quite a bit of "stubborn" hence second half of August is well possible.

Right now I fear that we shall have a similar race like not too long ago with the opening between beaufort and chucki that was kind of a matter of hours in favor of the later slot.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #131 on: August 08, 2019, 11:45:42 PM »

....

Right now I fear that we shall have a similar race like not too long ago with the opening between beaufort and chucki that was kind of a matter of hours in favor of the later slot.

Yes, and I definitely got that one a few hours two early, darn it. Grrr... That little stringer of ice.

Lets hope for the same again :)

petm

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #132 on: August 09, 2019, 01:08:43 AM »
Bellot Strait doesn't need to open as it looks like you can go around the other way.

gerontocrat

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #133 on: August 09, 2019, 06:24:47 PM »
Only 7 days left for my prediction hat belongs to me to come true.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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AndyW

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #134 on: August 09, 2019, 06:45:18 PM »

The Canadian sea ice service bulletins need  to used for this.

To me though it does not matter, because commercial shipping uses the Northern passage and this is more important for a clear passageway.

NW is just for stuck yachts or historically inclined adventurers trying to get through. With 21st C commerce the Northern passage is far more important.

Andy


philopek

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #135 on: August 09, 2019, 07:08:28 PM »
Only 7 days left for my prediction hat belongs to me to come true.

You gonna make it, 2-4 days out for two routes at least ;)

Killian

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #136 on: August 10, 2019, 10:41:35 AM »
It's open, so far as I'm concerned. Use the slider at Worldview over the last ice there blocking the way and you can see the right side is clear on the 8th and the left side is clear on the 9th, thus, it's open.

You heard it here first! Or didn't!

Jim Hunt

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #137 on: August 10, 2019, 11:11:50 AM »
It's open, so far as I'm concerned.

For an alternative interpretation from the CIS see:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

crandles

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #138 on: August 10, 2019, 01:48:35 PM »


routes 3,4 and 7 only having a very short green/yellow blockage to clear. Routes 5 & 7 having an additional very narrow passage that can be avoided by choosing route 3 / 4 / 7.

(I went route 4 on Aug 14 so likely to be just a few days too late?)

Killian

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #139 on: August 10, 2019, 01:55:06 PM »
It's open, so far as I'm concerned.

For an alternative interpretation from the CIS see:

Why use interpretations when you can just look?

It's open. Any self-respecting Arctic-capable ship would get through, and maybe any careful ship, too. Got water, what else do they need?

philopek

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #140 on: August 10, 2019, 02:02:50 PM »
It's open, so far as I'm concerned.

For an alternative interpretation from the CIS see:

CIS has a great responsibility and in case of incidents can be at a risk to be sued, hence they have to opt for the 100% safest possible side, which is why it can be indeed open in reality, but not yet officially.

I assume that this is a place where official declaration count, therefore so be it ;)

I give it another few days max, hoping for a clear sky to verify.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2019, 06:59:48 PM by philopek »

Jim Hunt

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #141 on: August 10, 2019, 06:27:47 PM »
CIS has a great responsibility and in case of incidents can be at a risk to be sued, hence they have to opt for the 100% safest possible side, which is why it can be indeed open in real but not yet officially.

An alternative interpretation from the crew of a large "small vessel" currently attempting the Northwest Passage:

Quote
When we got in to the heaviest part, the radar was of little use.  Sea ice stretched out as far as we could see, not as a solid mass but as individual sheets, low and flat, some a few meters long others as large as Rosehearty.  The radar display was jammed with echoes in no discernible order  The location of the ice was forecast correctly on the Canadian ice service chart; the density, however, was not.

http://www.syrosehearty.com/captains-blog/2019/8/9/nanuk
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

gerontocrat

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #142 on: August 10, 2019, 06:46:47 PM »
It's open, so far as I'm concerned.

For an alternative interpretation from the CIS see:

Why use interpretations when you can just look?

It's open. Any self-respecting Arctic-capable ship would get through, and maybe any careful ship, too. Got water, what else do they need?
Remind me not to get on a boat if you're the skipper.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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philopek

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #143 on: August 10, 2019, 10:47:13 PM »
Not Open

Attached image is per today, not yesterday there is a small ice-bridge as an obstacle that might be gone in day or two

Killian

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #144 on: August 11, 2019, 08:07:02 AM »
Not Open

Attached image is per today, not yesterday there is a small ice-bridge as an obstacle that might be gone in day or two

Yeah... not so much. (See image. And, the line at the far right should have been drawn through that thinner ice closer to the coastline.)

Gerontocrat said he'd not board a boat I skippered? Fine. I'll board your boat, tho', just so long as you're not the navigator.

;-)
« Last Edit: August 11, 2019, 08:12:32 AM by Killian »

Jim Hunt

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #145 on: August 11, 2019, 10:48:31 AM »
Meanwhile the Canadian Ice Service and all the trackable navigators in the vicinity still beg to differ.

There's an area of 7-8 tenths concentration sea ice across Larsen Sound. To add insult to injury the CIS map also now shows Bellot Strait chock a block with 9-10 tenths.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Killian

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #146 on: August 11, 2019, 03:10:48 PM »
Meanwhile the Canadian Ice Service and all the trackable navigators in the vicinity still beg to differ.

There's an area of 7-8 tenths concentration sea ice across Larsen Sound. To add insult to injury the CIS map also now shows Bellot Strait chock a block with 9-10 tenths.

1. I'll take a real picture over someone's drawing, or model or whatever that is, always.

2. 7/8 and 9/10ths means open water exists. Also, a goodly percentage of those tenths are filled with mush.

3. The pixels in even the most zoomed images still cover quite an area. Ships are pretty small in comparison. I'm of the opinion there's really no reason they can't get through with a little caution applied.

I do not begrudge you your willingness to wait for officials to say so, so hopefully you will not begrudge me my willingness to use my own eyes. This has always been my metric and i suspect it always will be because, well, we have pics to look at so have no reason to rely on anyone else's opinion.

Cheers

oren

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #147 on: August 11, 2019, 03:17:21 PM »
9/10 is not an open passage. The ice is mobile and open water appears and disappears

DrTskoul

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #148 on: August 11, 2019, 03:18:47 PM »
Go then!!!! Hahaha, you are funny... a real picture with a resolution of a boat ??? From space?? D-K is fully strong in you....

Killian

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #149 on: August 11, 2019, 06:02:38 PM »
Oren, obviously.

Dr,

First, this "a real picture with a resolution of a boat ??? From space??" makes no sense.

Second, I'm using the same criteria I have for ten years, thank you. Why do we have to accept others' definitions? I've always chosen to think for myself: Follow when it makes sense, go my way when it doesn't. Should I laugh at you for not thinking for yourself?

I did, btw, state in my OP, "...as far as I'm concerned." That should have been caveat enough for anyone. Your derision changes nothing.

Cheers
« Last Edit: August 11, 2019, 06:10:29 PM by Killian »