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When will "small vessels" first be able to traverse the Northwest Passage in 2019?

July 1 -15
3 (3.7%)
July 16 - 31
16 (19.8%)
August 1 -15
14 (17.3%)
August 16 - 31
29 (35.8%)
September 1 - 15
15 (18.5%)
September 16 -30
1 (1.2%)
Extremely late in the season
0 (0%)
No way Jose!
3 (3.7%)

Total Members Voted: 78

Voting closed: July 15, 2019, 11:11:52 AM

Author Topic: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?  (Read 13390 times)

Killian

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #150 on: August 11, 2019, 06:14:45 PM »
CIS has a great responsibility and in case of incidents can be at a risk to be sued, hence they have to opt for the 100% safest possible side

Indeed. They should, indeed, be diligent in their duties, and why "which is why it can be indeed open in reality, but not yet officially" is sometimes true.

Quote
I assume that this is a place where official declaration count, therefore so be it

I wasn't aware there was a rule against opinions.

Cheers

HapHazard

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #151 on: August 11, 2019, 08:04:47 PM »

the line at the far right should have been drawn through that thinner ice closer to the coastline.

Drawing a line through ice /= "no ice". Altho I'd do that route in my trusty kayak, like I did off the coast of Barrow earlier this year.

<= 6/10 concentration along the entire route is the definition for this thread's purposes, BTW:

The link is now broken, but once upon a time there was a Canadian Ice Service document that stated their definition of "open" to be <= 6/10 concentration along the entire route.

I'll see if I can track it down again.

3rd post, by the poll's OP. So Jim is correct, as far as this particular thread/poll goes.

Killian

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #152 on: August 11, 2019, 08:48:00 PM »

the line at the far right should have been drawn through that thinner ice closer to the coastline.

Drawing a line through ice /= "no ice". Altho I'd do that route in my trusty kayak, like I did off the coast of Barrow earlier this year.

<= 6/10 concentration along the entire route is the definition for this thread's purposes, BTW:

The link is now broken, but once upon a time there was a Canadian Ice Service document that stated their definition of "open" to be <= 6/10 concentration along the entire route.

I'll see if I can track it down again.

3rd post, by the poll's OP. So Jim is correct, as far as this particular thread/poll goes.

Your entire post is pointless, you realize? No? I don't think you read my comments keeping in mind the full context.

1. Don't care what the definition is bc I do not now, and never have, agreed with it, thus stated I was stating my perspective from my very first post. Ergo, I cannot be wrong within that context. I am not attempting to conform.

2. I never stated even the slightest opposition to the definition you all are choosing to use, and in fact agreed it was wise within the context it was promulgated. I simply do not use it and made that clear. You are just not paying attention, it seems.

3. The line/no ice point was rude.

HapHazard

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #153 on: August 11, 2019, 09:07:23 PM »
Amazing.  ;D

philopek

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DrTskoul

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #155 on: August 12, 2019, 01:49:38 AM »
Oy vey... I rest my case...

DrTskoul

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #156 on: August 12, 2019, 01:58:55 AM »
From the Canadian Ice Service: Manual of Ice

Explanation of egg chart and color coding...

DrTskoul

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #157 on: August 12, 2019, 02:03:02 AM »

petm

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #158 on: August 12, 2019, 05:40:15 AM »
Looks open now.


Jim Hunt

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #159 on: August 12, 2019, 09:43:13 AM »
Looks open now.

Not according to the Canadian Ice Service it doesn't.

According to the terms of this poll Bellot Strait is full of 9/10 "thick first year ice" and the path through Franklin Strait is blocked by 6/10 "old ice" or worse.

Note the "based on" section of the "Stage of Development" map. It makes no mention of MODIS or AMSR2. If you want a second SAR based opinion you could try MASIE:

http://masie_web.apps.nsidc.org/pub/DATASETS/NOAA/G02186/latest/4km/masie_all_r09_4km.png

That map is of course not based on a 60% concentration threshold.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #160 on: August 12, 2019, 10:13:57 AM »
1. Don't care what the definition is bc I do not now, and never have, agreed with it, thus stated I was stating my perspective from my very first post. Ergo, I cannot be wrong within that context. I am not attempting to conform.

In which case please confine further off topic "perspectives" to:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,762.msg221251.html#msg221251
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gerontocrat

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #161 on: August 12, 2019, 12:12:35 PM »
I will accept Jim Hunt's decision unreservedly unless his decision on the data for the 15th August is that the NW Passage is still not open. After that decision I will post incessantly about how Jim Hunt has got it all WRONG!!**.

(I went for a first half of August opening).

ps: Does the decision hold if the passage opens but after a day or two contrary winds and currents send ice to block it again ?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Phil.

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #162 on: August 12, 2019, 12:42:54 PM »
The view from Randall Reeves yacht near Pond Inlet a couple of days ago.

Peter Ellis

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #163 on: August 12, 2019, 02:37:27 PM »
1. Don't care what the definition is bc I do not now, and never have, agreed with it, thus stated I was stating my perspective from my very first post. Ergo, I cannot be wrong within that context. I am not attempting to conform.

petm

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #164 on: August 12, 2019, 02:44:20 PM »
Not claiming that the terms of this poll are met. Also not saying that I'd take a boat in there today. :) Just saying that this is the first day it has looked open according to the concentration map. At the rate it's changing, I guess it would be open by any criteria within a few days.

Edit: If I understand correctly, the terms of this poll would be met if that large "orange G" block were yellow?
« Last Edit: August 12, 2019, 02:57:51 PM by petm »

oren

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #165 on: August 12, 2019, 03:45:25 PM »
Not claiming that the terms of this poll are met. Also not saying that I'd take a boat in there today. :) Just saying that this is the first day it has looked open according to the concentration map. At the rate it's changing, I guess it would be open by any criteria within a few days.
Agreed.

Jim Hunt

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #166 on: August 12, 2019, 03:51:00 PM »
If I understand correctly, the terms of this poll would be met if that large "orange G" block were yellow?

Correct, albeit not the route via Bellot Strait just at the moment.

CCGS Terry Fox is currently leading MS Bremen south through Peel Sound. Ahead of them both is an adventurous "pleasure craft" that has evidently decided to brave "block G" in the not too distant future! Being a cheapskate non subscriber to Marine Traffic I'm currently unclear about the identity of that "small vessel":

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-95.4/centery:73.7/zoom:8
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RoxTheGeologist

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #167 on: August 12, 2019, 04:12:36 PM »

Jim, oh great thread arbitrator, are you accepting bribes?

Jim Hunt

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #168 on: August 12, 2019, 04:19:45 PM »
Are you accepting bribes?

No. However perhaps you should be making the CIS an offer they can't refuse?
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petm

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #169 on: August 12, 2019, 04:37:36 PM »
CCGS Terry Fox is currently leading MS Bremen south through Peel Sound. Ahead of them both is an adventurous "pleasure craft" that has evidently decided to brave "block G" in the not too distant future!

The race is on! /watching 0.0

petm

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #170 on: August 12, 2019, 05:45:25 PM »
The 2 blue boats (Terry Fox & Bremen?) passed the pink one and have made quite a lot of distance (~50 km?). At this rate, they'll be in the "G" uh block in a few hours...

Tor Bejnar

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #171 on: August 12, 2019, 05:54:36 PM »
Will the people on the 2nd boat rescue the people on the 1st boat when its hull 'opens' due to ice cutting into in?  Or will the blue boat people have to wait for the pink boat people?  Or is everything hunky-dory in the ice-free [enough] CAA?  (Wait, if it's hunky-dory, it won't be ice free … )  :o :-X
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philopek

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #172 on: August 12, 2019, 06:16:02 PM »
Jim is basing his judgement solely on Canadian Ice Service while all-together we've seen many other sources showing different results including the bit in question viewed at on sat-images.

- I think it's not good to rely on a single source, especially when there is a liability bias

- The question was: When will "small vessels" first be able to traverse the Northwest Passage in 2019?

This is not the same question like "when does CIS declare the NWP open

Therefore all the hinted bashing of those who base their opinion on other data but data still, is not justified and helps to streamline content into the direction of a few who claim the right to know what counts and what not.

So next year I suggest that the thread title will be: When does the CIS declare the NWP open or, when does Jim Hunt, based on CIS declare the NWP open.

I was watching 5 different sources, all show open water, only CIS not and if they were not there in person to verify their biased (liability in favour of insurances in case somehting happens) data, there is now reason to favor their drawings over sat-data-based input.

Perhaps many of you are not aware how many laws are and were introduces by the bribed governments of this world to imrove the profit ratio of insurance companies, seat belts, helmets on motorbikes end many many more.

Why do i write this, because of the sarcasm i've seen here and elsewhere towards those with an own opinion, wrong or right, as long as there is no PROOF but only one opinion (drawing) against many ohters (i.e sat data and sat images) such condescending replies are not justified.


petm

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #173 on: August 12, 2019, 07:05:45 PM »
Will the people on the 2nd boat rescue the people on the 1st boat when its hull 'opens' due to ice cutting into in?  Or will the blue boat people have to wait for the pink boat people?  Or is everything hunky-dory in the ice-free [enough] CAA?  (Wait, if it's hunky-dory, it won't be ice free … )  :o :-X

Seems that the 1st boat is a heavy icebreaker, so probably hunky dory (and not necessarily ice free)...

https://www.cruisemapper.com/?imo=8127799
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CCGS_Terry_Fox
https://www.hl-cruises.com/ships/ms-bremen

Does anyone know of a webcam or other photo source on either of these vessels? Jim?

@philopek No need to be upset. There is a difference between when a small boat can get through and when some specific requirement is met. I don't think anyone's disputing that.

HapHazard

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #174 on: August 12, 2019, 07:14:45 PM »
@philopek

It's just a fun poll, accent on the fun. OP sets the parameters, which keeps it simple, and from there we merely enjoy the ride/developments. Threads like this provide some much-needed (IMO, OFC) levity. IDK why some "Buzz Killington" types like to barge into a thread like this & throw their ego around. (To be clear, I'm not accusing you of any of the above, philopek  :)  )

At any rate, the pink boat is me in my kayak, and I'd have paddled thru already but I ran out of coffee. Currently adrift.

Jim Hunt

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #175 on: August 12, 2019, 09:07:26 PM »
Does anyone know of a webcam or other photo source on either of these vessels? Jim?

See: https://www.hl-cruises.com/ships/ms-bremen/explore-ship/webcam-ships-position

Ignore the alleged "position" though.

It looks as though some ice has recently been spotted:
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petm

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #176 on: August 12, 2019, 09:12:05 PM »
Thanks! Wish I were on board, looks lovely.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #177 on: August 12, 2019, 10:01:43 PM »
Looks cold.  (Yes, I live in Florida.)
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RoxTheGeologist

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #178 on: August 12, 2019, 10:06:28 PM »
Looks cold.  (Yes, I live in Florida.)

Everywhere looks cold from Florida.

And dry.

petm

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #179 on: August 12, 2019, 11:19:00 PM »
Cold is lovely! :)

Today's CIS map still shows a narrow band of orange blocking the way.



... which our noble vessels are fast approaching...
« Last Edit: August 12, 2019, 11:24:05 PM by petm »

petm

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #180 on: August 12, 2019, 11:54:17 PM »
Passed through an icy region recently (near the end of the video):


petm

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #181 on: August 13, 2019, 12:28:25 AM »
Regionally clear skies today. Looks clear by satellite. Not sure what the CIS is smoking...

https://go.nasa.gov/33tgBSS



 ;D

crandles

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #182 on: August 13, 2019, 02:08:41 AM »
Speed down to 9 knots from 11 knots earlier. Think they have entered orange area now on 13th UTC.

Biased opinion: Needs an icebreaker for another few hours for my 14th Aug guess  ;) ;D

petm

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #183 on: August 13, 2019, 02:21:19 AM »
No Little ice showing on the webcam except for about 1 hour several hours ago (Aug 12 UTC).

https://www.hl-cruises.com/ships/ms-bremen/explore-ship/webcam-ships-position?

ghoti

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #184 on: August 13, 2019, 02:43:29 AM »
It appears some other bloggers think the passage opened already:

http://rabett.blogspot.com/2019/08/august-11-and-northwest-passage-is-open.html

Though perhaps they don't read these forums and so they are misinformed.

Jim Hunt

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #185 on: August 13, 2019, 09:09:30 AM »
Not sure what the CIS is smoking...

"Orange G" ?
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HapHazard

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #186 on: August 13, 2019, 11:12:02 AM »
I had to turn on "Flight of the Valkyries" while watching that video.

philopek

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #187 on: August 13, 2019, 11:12:40 AM »
Not sure what the CIS is smoking...

"Orange G" ?

There is another route through "hudson" (Fox Basin) that has no such ice and i think it's possible to pass there slowly. I've seen small "plastic" [JK] sailboats going through this kind of ice over several days and not an isolated relatively small ice-field.

crandles

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #188 on: August 13, 2019, 12:03:50 PM »

There is another route through "hudson" (Fox Basin) that has no such ice and i think it's possible to pass there slowly. I've seen small "plastic" [JK] sailboats going through this kind of ice over several days and not an isolated relatively small ice-field.

Through Hudson / Fox is route 7 which goes through Bellot strait (looks more dodgy) and also where  these ships are going now. So it isn't clearer. Route 3 looks most sensible at the moment, with route 4 possibly just about as clear but longer.

oren

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #189 on: August 13, 2019, 12:04:33 PM »
Not sure what the CIS is smoking...

"Orange G" ?

There is another route through "hudson" (Fox Basin) that has no such ice and i think it's possible to pass there slowly. I've seen small "plastic" [JK] sailboats going through this kind of ice over several days and not an isolated relatively small ice-field.
Even when going through Foxe Basin, one must still cross either Bellot Strait or Peel Sound, so it's back to the same (very temporary) problem.

philopek

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #190 on: August 13, 2019, 03:10:17 PM »
McLure, certainly after the 15th but with a fair chance to open up in a week or two.

gerontocrat

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #191 on: August 13, 2019, 03:42:40 PM »
McLure, certainly after the 15th but with a fair chance to open up in a week or two.
Unless ice area loss stalls
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philopek

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #192 on: August 13, 2019, 03:50:37 PM »
McLure, certainly after the 15th but with a fair chance to open up in a week or two.
Unless ice area loss stalls

Yes, thought it but didn't mention, thought the "fair chance" includes the "perhaps not", the "certainly"  refers to the "earliest 15th, bad English obviously

thanks for putting it right ;)

petm

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #193 on: August 13, 2019, 04:01:31 PM »
Yep they found a little bit of thin ice here and there, although not in the places the CIS map claims it should be. They're south of PW island now, foggy morning. Still looks lovely!

Jim Hunt

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #194 on: August 13, 2019, 07:55:14 PM »
At long last a Sentinel 1 image of the Franklin/Bellot Straits region from earlier today:

https://www.polarview.aq/arctic
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petm

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #195 on: August 13, 2019, 10:19:09 PM »
Nice. There's the bits of ice they passed through.

Now parting ways?

« Last Edit: August 13, 2019, 11:49:25 PM by petm »

petm

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #196 on: August 14, 2019, 02:25:08 AM »
Yep, the MS Bremen is on her own now.

Jim Hunt

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #197 on: August 14, 2019, 11:59:31 AM »
Cross posting from the main NW Passage thread, a "small vessel" has successfully made it into Franklin Strait:



This evening's CIS map should be interesting!
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AmbiValent

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #198 on: August 14, 2019, 12:10:37 PM »
Go then!!!! Hahaha, you are funny... a real picture with a resolution of a boat ??? From space?? D-K is fully strong in you....
Ummm... are you aware that on pictures from satellites you don't just see cars which are smaller than boats, you can even see the thinner markings separating parking spaces?
Bright ice, how can you crack and fail? How can the ice that seemed so mighty suddenly seem so frail?

uniquorn

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #199 on: August 14, 2019, 12:15:48 PM »
itp89 on the move again https://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=148096
Last position on 2019/8/14 16 UTC : 72.7984° N, 108.451° W