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When will "small vessels" first be able to traverse the Northwest Passage in 2019?

July 1 -15
3 (3.7%)
July 16 - 31
16 (19.8%)
August 1 -15
14 (17.3%)
August 16 - 31
29 (35.8%)
September 1 - 15
15 (18.5%)
September 16 -30
1 (1.2%)
Extremely late in the season
0 (0%)
No way Jose!
3 (3.7%)

Total Members Voted: 78

Voting closed: July 15, 2019, 11:11:52 AM

Author Topic: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?  (Read 25868 times)

RikW

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #50 on: July 04, 2019, 09:04:00 AM »
When looking at worldview I don't think it is looking good for the ice, especially because I doubt there will be a lot of import of ice from the arctic into the CAA, i've never seen such a large ice-free gap between the CAA and the arctic ocean early july, so when the ice is gone in the CAA it is really gone, there will be almost no import of ice.

I voted 16-30 july when it can be passed and I fear almost all routes are possible in a couple of weeks.

I even more fear for the next melting season. Imagine the CAA being 90%+ ice-free for more than a month with most ice non-glaciers/ice-caps on the islands almost gone for several weeks with almost no import of older ice.

I hope I'm too pessimistic

uniquorn

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #51 on: July 04, 2019, 09:16:07 PM »
Looking at worldview today combined with mercator 34m salinity (some cherry picking) and taking into account the longer than normal open water north of caa, could there be a new route?
edit:Larger fractures north of somerset suggest not but this year is quite different.
« Last Edit: July 04, 2019, 09:23:11 PM by uniquorn »

b_lumenkraft

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #52 on: July 04, 2019, 09:28:33 PM »
Ah, good that you mention it Uniquorn.

Since any other route than route 1 has a left turn, i consider turning right from route 1 also route 1. That's fine, right?

uniquorn

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #53 on: July 04, 2019, 09:45:05 PM »
One of the few times when left has the advantage ;) btw I'm not voting. As you have seen previously, I lose all sense of objectivity.
edit: well, at least in humour....vbc poll https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2667.msg198822.html#msg198822
« Last Edit: July 04, 2019, 10:20:11 PM by uniquorn »

b_lumenkraft

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #54 on: July 04, 2019, 09:48:56 PM »
Wat? I've seen nothing of the sort.

magnamentis

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #55 on: July 04, 2019, 11:05:15 PM »
what's the definition of "small" ?

i think with some very small boat it's already possible, i.e. with a kayak ?

Tor Bejnar

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #56 on: July 04, 2019, 11:47:34 PM »
Alas, we're held to dictionary definitions.  "bigger than a rowboat" (see post a couple above the link for this being a 'rule')

But Mag, we think alike!
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magnamentis

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #57 on: July 05, 2019, 03:39:49 AM »
Alas, we're held to dictionary definitions.  "bigger than a rowboat" (see post a couple above the link for this being a 'rule')

But Mag, we think alike!

then i opt for a very small rowboat and apply an outboarder haha... just kidding

in serious, i understood, not a row boat or a small inflatable, something whit what one can travel a distance and have meals and sleep..

Tor Bejnar

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #58 on: July 05, 2019, 03:51:50 AM »
 :)
 ;) ;)
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NACK

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #59 on: July 05, 2019, 12:23:32 PM »
The NWP transit along route #1 from Halifax to Nome for example is approximately 5000 miles long, mostly wilderness, with very few places for resupply and only open for a relatively short duration.

It would take at least 6 months of paddling in a conventional kayak (multiple seasons)  and might be possible for someone like Freya Hoffmeister who is currently on a ten-year effort to circumnavigate North America. She won't be taking route #1, that's for sure, but similar conditions exist along all seven routes.

There's no record of a kayak transit of the NWP but I think it is possible in one season if outfitted with sails and outriggers but would require an ice-free passage...


magnamentis

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #60 on: July 05, 2019, 03:01:52 PM »
The NWP transit along route #1 from Halifax to Nome for example is approximately 5000 miles long, mostly wilderness, with very few places for resupply and only open for a relatively short duration.

It would take at least 6 months of paddling in a conventional kayak (multiple seasons)  and might be possible for someone like Freya Hoffmeister who is currently on a ten-year effort to circumnavigate North America. She won't be taking route #1, that's for sure, but similar conditions exist along all seven routes.

There's no record of a kayak transit of the NWP but I think it is possible in one season if outfitted with sails and outriggers but would require an ice-free passage...

sorry if you took that serious, probably my fault, i wanted to be funny and forgot the appropriate hint though, you're absolutely correct that the entire passage in a kayak would take at least 2 seasons if feasible at all.

with i nice girl "on depot" somewhere mid-route for the winter, perhaps one day,who knows

 ;) ;) ;) ;) [another bit of fun, i mean the term "on depot" LOL]

Jim Hunt

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #61 on: July 05, 2019, 04:13:46 PM »
There's no record of a kayak transit of the NWP but I think it is possible in one season if outfitted with sails and outriggers but would require an ice-free passage...

The Rêve de Glace team reckon they could have made it through the CAA section of the full Northwest Passage powered only by paddles in any year other than 2013:

https://paddlingmag.com/stories/paddling-the-northwest-passage/

However they did take some shortcuts along rivers rather than through the passage proper.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

gerontocrat

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #62 on: July 05, 2019, 05:19:47 PM »
There's no record of a kayak transit of the NWP but I think it is possible in one season if outfitted with sails and outriggers but would require an ice-free passage...

The Rêve de Glace team reckon they could have made it through the CAA section of the full Northwest Passage powered only by paddles in any year other than 2013:

https://paddlingmag.com/stories/paddling-the-northwest-passage/

However they did take some shortcuts along rivers rather than through the passage proper.
Kayak? Bleah.

Travel in style. From only £15,500

https://www.hurtigruten.co.uk/destinations/northwest-passage/in-the-footsteps-of-roald-amundsen/
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magnamentis

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #63 on: July 05, 2019, 06:12:27 PM »
we should try to stick to the original scenario:


a)  from nova scotia is not the same like from illulisat or similar location in greenland

b) a kayak with sails is a sailboat and only the hull looks like a kayak, adding even outriggers it's a trimaran or a katamaran, not a kayak.

really interesting how one make minor alteration to the original so that one can say now or start an argument.

from nova scotia with that wave action (i've lived there 12 years hence can tell) and around newfoundland even more so, it takes so long and is so slow (and dangerous) that it will make the entire thing at least 2-3 months and that needs extremely precise timing to reach the passage while it's open and get out of it while it's still open, but perhaps possible (no sails no outriggers)

a bentley with caterpillars instead of wheels is NOT A CAR, it's a snowmobile or caterpillar etc.

as you see i don't say no or sure, i dunno, but at least if we discuss something in serious we should not alter the specifications, the route etc.

the question was if a kayar to make the entire route from i.e. halifax to nome would make it in one season and i would say no, time is too short. and then there is the question whether we choose the route via satellite images or if we have to define the route beforehand.

getting stuck in the ice in october is a killer, hence one has to decide way before whether it's recommended to continue at the end of august from the last winterproof settlement and where the girl is to the end


« Last Edit: July 05, 2019, 06:32:30 PM by magnamentis »

NACK

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #64 on: July 05, 2019, 06:45:16 PM »
The Foxe Basin is quickly melting and the Fury & Heckla Straits are almost open; Route #7 may be the winner this year.

There have only been eight transits of Route #7: a couple of research vessels, a couple of ice hardened cargo ships, an ice breaker, another cargo ship, a sloop and of course Polar Bound.

It is the least traveled route but in my opinion it is the most interesting:
An area with 4 times the polar bears of anywhere else on earth
The largest walrus herd in Canada
Transits of the Fury & Heckla Strait and Bellot Strait
Some of the most pristine areas in the CAA.

It is the shortest route and the most southern so why isn't it used more often.
The ice has been persistent and the strait is seldom open.


JayW

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #65 on: July 06, 2019, 10:10:01 PM »
100 hour loop,, Cornwallis island in the lower right corner.  The tides are doing some work. Pretty sunny as well.

"To defy the laws of tradition, is a crusade only of the brave" - Les Claypool

oren

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #66 on: July 07, 2019, 12:33:57 AM »
Simply amazing animation. Until this year I was not aware of the major effect tides have on sea ice.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2019, 02:38:17 AM by oren »

Kognsfjorden

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #67 on: July 08, 2019, 10:26:31 PM »
Tecla is pretty confident they will get through, otherwise their charter schedule in the Pacific will require a few changes ...

https://www.tecla-sailing.com/sailing-schedule-2019/

http://www.tecla-sailing.com/north-west-passage-ilulissat-nome/


b_lumenkraft

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #68 on: July 09, 2019, 01:24:20 PM »
The ice near Griffith Island is cracking!

vox_mundi

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #69 on: July 13, 2019, 06:08:19 PM »
Streaming live from the Arctic: the Northwest Passage Project
https://nunatsiaq.com/stories/article/streaming-live-from-the-arctic-the-northwest-passage-project/

A group of American and Canadian scientists are preparing to embark on a two-week research mission through the Northwest Passage.

Members of the Northwest Passage Project will depart from Greenland on Thursday, July 18, aboard the Swedish icebreaker Oden, equipped with the technology to share real-time observations and live broadcasts.



The expedition’s first stop is Pond Inlet on July 20, when the team will livestream the first interactive broadcast from the Northwest Passage.

Viewers can tune into the live broadcasts from the group’s Facebook page on July 20 at 5 p.m. EST and then again on July 27 at 7 p.m. EST and July 30 at 7 p.m. EST.

From Pond Inlet, the expedition will sail through Lancaster Sound to Barrow Strait, stopping in Resolute. The group will then sail west to Melville Sound and south into Prince Regent Inlet on its way back to Greenland.

The Northwest Passage Project also has filmmaker David Clark aboard, who will produce a documentary on the expedition.

https://northwestpassageproject.org/
http://bit.ly/322hZei
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

b_lumenkraft

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #70 on: July 13, 2019, 07:33:45 PM »
Quote
Viewers can tune into the live broadcasts from the group’s Facebook page


Oh no!  :-\

I don't use faceborg. Hope someone with an account will share it here...

vox_mundi

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #71 on: July 13, 2019, 07:43:00 PM »
A Faceborg account is not required. I don't use it either.

Use http://bit.ly/322hZei
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

b_lumenkraft

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #72 on: July 13, 2019, 07:54:48 PM »
Thanks, Vox_mundi, but this is not working for me. I've deliberately blocked all FB domains on IP layer.

Since they are spying on all people, no matter if they have an account, this is the only possibility to dodge them.

philopek

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #73 on: July 13, 2019, 08:04:05 PM »
Thanks, Vox_mundi, but this is not working for me. I've deliberately blocked all FB domains on IP layer.

Since they are spying on all people, no matter if they have an account, this is the only possibility to dodge them.

You can use this for rare exceptions without exposing or revealing any information about yourself or your machine. No browsing history, no cookies, you name it and you chose by selecting the highest security level.

https://www.torproject.org/download/

b_lumenkraft

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #74 on: July 13, 2019, 08:50:48 PM »
Sure, Philopek, Tor is an idea! Thanks. :)

Tor Bejnar

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #75 on: July 13, 2019, 09:35:36 PM »
Sure, Philopek, Tor is an idea! Thanks. :)
I regularly get confused when I see statements like this:  I'm an 'idea'? ? ? ???  It doesn't take much research (in this case, reading the previous post) to remember I'm not the only "Tor" around.   :o
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #76 on: July 13, 2019, 09:40:45 PM »
Sure, Philopek, Tor is an idea! Thanks. :)
I regularly get confused when I see statements like this:  I'm an 'idea'???  It doesn't take much research (in this case, reading the previous post) to remember I'm not the only "Tor" around.   :o

I always read your name as the god from the Edda.

Odin, Tor and the other Norse Gods
https://en.natmus.dk/historical-knowledge/denmark/prehistoric-period-until-1050-ad/the-late-iron-age/iron-age-gods/odin-tor-and-the-other-norse-gods/

gerontocrat

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #77 on: July 13, 2019, 10:26:48 PM »
It doesn't take much research to remember I'm not the only "Tor" around.   :o
It did not. A selection of Tors.....

hard, difficult; strong; rich

A craggy outcrop of rock on the summit of a hill.

A hill.

Toronto

an implementation of second-generation onion routing.

Plural form of torus.

a tower; a turret

high-pointed hill; a rocky pinnacle

A tor is a large, free-standing residual mass that rises abruptly from the surrounding smooth and gentle slopes of a rounded hill summit or ridge crest. In the South West of England, where the term originated, it is also a word used for the hills themselves – particularly the high points of Dartmoor in Devon and Bodmin Moor in Cornwall.
_____________________________________________________
And finally the one in question

Totally Offgrid Reality.
Used as a gateway to unregulated, free, old school, anarchistic, extremely diverse, at your own risk internet.
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uniquorn

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #78 on: July 16, 2019, 09:06:08 PM »
Polynya west of amund ringnes https://go.nasa.gov/2lOjrR5

uniquorn

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #79 on: July 17, 2019, 09:54:05 PM »
A little way north of amund ringnes. Polynya or melt pond?
forgot link: https://go.nasa.gov/2LRRxi2 I think it's polynya.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2019, 10:13:09 PM by uniquorn »

uniquorn

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #80 on: July 18, 2019, 12:25:22 AM »
Mclure Strait is probably more relevant over the last two days.
edit: full moon jul16 so maybe tidal
« Last Edit: July 18, 2019, 10:18:19 AM by uniquorn »

be cause

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #81 on: July 18, 2019, 01:15:17 AM »
It is interesting that although I believe this to be an exceptional melting season , only 1 person expects a later ''opening'' than me . b.c.
 
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

DrTskoul

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #82 on: July 18, 2019, 02:15:13 AM »
It is interesting that although I believe this to be an exceptional melting season , only 1 person expects a later ''opening'' than me . b.c.
 

You are weird... that's all

philopek

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #83 on: July 18, 2019, 05:13:39 PM »
It is interesting that although I believe this to be an exceptional melting season , only 1 person expects a later ''opening'' than me . b.c.
 

You are weird... that's all

Not being weird means being normal means being average means being mediocre at best uppss...

However that is, all good and outstanding people known from the past were considered weird by the non-comprehending majority which is why to be acclaimed by too many while still alive is a disqualification.

After ones death that may change because there is no more danger to be second to someone.
The ever present human competition neurosis can finally be overcome.

be cause

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #84 on: July 18, 2019, 05:32:51 PM »
Glad to get a diagnosis from the Dr .. and welcome , philopek ..

I guess if the NW passage had IBS it would be open already .. but .. it's constipated atm . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

uniquorn

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #85 on: July 18, 2019, 11:11:04 PM »
New fractures west of buckingham island  https://go.nasa.gov/2JEW2Lt

gerontocrat

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #86 on: July 19, 2019, 05:00:52 PM »
I predicted the first half of August (I think).

Still 4 weeks left.
Might be needing every day.

gif plays 3 times and then dies.

Just to keep Tor happy/shut him up (delete as applicable or leave both)

click gif to play and it will never stop
« Last Edit: July 19, 2019, 06:39:45 PM by gerontocrat »
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #87 on: July 19, 2019, 07:06:52 PM »
 :)
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #88 on: July 21, 2019, 03:43:29 PM »
Gateshead Island, July 19

Sterks

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #89 on: July 21, 2019, 04:55:18 PM »
Gateshead Island, July 19
May I ask how do you get these wonderful images,  Alphabet Hotel? Is it a special filter on Sentinel 2?

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #90 on: July 21, 2019, 05:29:26 PM »
Gateshead Island, July 19
May I ask how do you get these wonderful images,  Alphabet Hotel? Is it a special filter on Sentinel 2?

I use b_lumenkraft's trick of custom rendering in Sentinel Hub with the formula:

  return [B8A*2,B03*1,B02*1]

Then I load the image into GIMP, do auto white balance [Colors | Auto | White Balance], then play with the red channel hue until the colors look more natural [Colors | Hue-Saturation..., select Red, adjust Hue slider].

Sterks

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #91 on: July 21, 2019, 06:21:59 PM »
Gateshead Island, July 19
May I ask how do you get these wonderful images,  Alphabet Hotel? Is it a special filter on Sentinel 2?

I use b_lumenkraft's trick of custom rendering in Sentinel Hub with the formula:

  return [B8A*2,B03*1,B02*1]

Then I load the image into GIMP, do auto white balance [Colors | Auto | White Balance], then play with the red channel hue until the colors look more natural [Colors | Hue-Saturation..., select Red, adjust Hue slider].
Thanks, I’ll give it a try

uniquorn

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #92 on: July 22, 2019, 12:27:26 AM »
There is some open water visible through cloud south of Bathurst, but a lot more breaking up further north towards amund Ringnes.

philopek

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #93 on: July 22, 2019, 12:44:45 AM »
CAA is under attack, won't take too long for one or more open routes IMO

uniquorn

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #94 on: July 22, 2019, 01:10:56 PM »
Piomas percentage loss from of maximum for CAA.
« Last Edit: July 22, 2019, 08:27:28 PM by uniquorn »

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #95 on: July 22, 2019, 07:46:45 PM »
Bellot Strait is pretty much open. Looks like the ice broke up and got pushed out the eastern end. Ice is breaking up from the western end of the strait all the way down to Gjoa Haven.

oren

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #96 on: July 23, 2019, 04:13:10 AM »
Where is Jim Hunt?

DrTskoul

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #97 on: July 23, 2019, 04:20:35 AM »
Where is Jim Hunt?

He is active. No much posting.  Maybe he is busy...

Kognsfjorden

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #98 on: July 23, 2019, 05:39:08 PM »
A few boats on their way.

http://www.ant-arctic-lab.com/tracking-by-isax/

This is a boat planning on sailing single handed, non stop, France - North West Pasage - west coast of Americas - round antarctica - back to France. I wish him luck - a bold plan.

Boats also heading West to East - leading boat waiting at Herschel island.

uniquorn

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #99 on: July 26, 2019, 11:43:16 PM »
Very clear weather, light contrast enhancement. Large to show detail (don't click)
https://go.nasa.gov/2K5tSbr