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When will "small vessels" first be able to traverse the Northwest Passage in 2019?

July 1 -15
3 (3.7%)
July 16 - 31
16 (19.8%)
August 1 -15
14 (17.3%)
August 16 - 31
29 (35.8%)
September 1 - 15
15 (18.5%)
September 16 -30
1 (1.2%)
Extremely late in the season
0 (0%)
No way Jose!
3 (3.7%)

Total Members Voted: 78

Voting closed: July 15, 2019, 11:11:52 AM

Author Topic: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?  (Read 24921 times)

Jim Hunt

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #200 on: August 14, 2019, 12:31:37 PM »
Ummm... are you aware that on pictures from satellites you don't just see cars which are smaller than boats, you can even see the thinner markings separating parking spaces?

You can't see boats on the near real time satellite images of the Arctic we mere mortals have access to. MODIS resolution is 250 meters for example.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

crandles

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #201 on: August 14, 2019, 11:53:26 PM »


Still blocked per these maps unless you say that on 11th/12th August you could get to Western end of Bellot Straigt, find somewhere (preferably sheltered) to anchor and let that orange block drift northwards. Now you can continue along route 4.



Hmm Second image not showing should be:

http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS38CT/20190811180000_WIS38CT_0010713325.gif


Jim Hunt

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #202 on: August 15, 2019, 11:12:17 AM »
Still blocked per these maps

Quite so. Here's another new Sentinel 1 image recorded yesterday.

Despite the CIS's reservations some more "small vessels" have made it past the orange block and into Franklin Strait, whilst Bremen looks to be en route to Gjoa Haven:

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

gerontocrat

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #203 on: August 15, 2019, 01:50:49 PM »

Despite the CIS's reservations some more "small vessels" have made it past the orange block and into Franklin Strait, whilst Bremen looks to be en route to Gjoa Haven:
Are these small vessels' hulls strengthened against ice?
If they are, does it count if they make it through?
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"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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AndyW

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #204 on: August 15, 2019, 03:07:51 PM »
In regards to the NW passage being navigable I don't think this is a very interesting topic until year on year you can go north of Victoria Island  and do the direct route.

That would then equate to ships transversing the Northern passage on the eastern side easily, as per all the action currently.


petm

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #205 on: August 16, 2019, 05:18:28 AM »
Open on the latest CIS map it seems:


Jim Hunt

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #206 on: August 16, 2019, 11:06:17 AM »
Open on the latest CIS map it seems

In conjunction with the Resolute/Lancaster Sound CIS map and assorted tracking maps we can safely say that routes 3 and 4 opened in the first half of August. However routes 5,6 and 7 are still blocked at Bellot Strait.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #207 on: August 16, 2019, 11:14:36 AM »
Are these small vessels' hulls strengthened against ice?

Not necessarily. Tecla is "an original Dutch herring drifter built in 1915 to fish the North Seas under sail" and claims to be "The first tall ship to attempt the North West Passage":
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

binntho

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #208 on: August 16, 2019, 12:03:36 PM »
What do they mean by "tall ship" in this context? I also seem to remember reading that wooden hulls are better able to withstand being frozen in ice, but perhaps not so good at ramming ice.
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BenB

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #209 on: August 16, 2019, 12:12:26 PM »
Tall ships:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tall_ship

Basically they're large, traditionally-rigged sailing ships.

binntho

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #210 on: August 16, 2019, 12:39:13 PM »
That's how I've always understood the term "tall ship". So when they say "The first tall ship to attempt the North West Passage", they presumably assume that earlier attempts to find the North West Passage do not count as attempts at the North West Passage.

But then what about Amundsen's Gjøa?
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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gerontocrat

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #211 on: August 16, 2019, 12:58:08 PM »
That's how I've always understood the term "tall ship". So when they say "The first tall ship to attempt the North West Passage", they presumably assume that earlier attempts to find the North West Passage do not count as attempts at the North West Passage.

But then what about Amundsen's Gjøa?
Indeed. Perhaps they should add "in modern times", and still hope for good weather.

https://www.rmg.co.uk/discover/explore/john-franklin-final-north-west-passage-expedition-1845
John Franklin's final North-West Passage expedition 1845

Quote
In May 1845 two ships, HMS Erebus and Terror sailed from Britain to what is now Nunavut in Northern Canada. Explorations of the Arctic coastline had led to great optimism that finding and charting the final part of the North-West Passage – the seaway linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans – was now within reach. Explorer John Franklin, who had made two previous attempts to find it, was keen to claim the prize.

By previous standards the Erebus and Terror were powerful and luxurious, with heating systems and vast supplies of preserved foods. In late July, the two ships were seen by a whaler in Baffin Bay, waiting for ice to clear in Lancaster Sound and to begin their journey to the Bering Strait. It was the last time any of the 129 crewmen were ever seen alive.


The image is worth a click
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

binntho

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #212 on: August 16, 2019, 01:03:07 PM »
There's a fairly recent and extremely good book about the Terror and Erebus expedition called simply "The Terror" by Dan Simmon. I think we have mentioned it before here, but for all ice enthusiasts it's really worth reading.

That painting is magnificent - and the painter does know what ice looks like, even if he may be exaggerating a little bit.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

Tor Bejnar

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #213 on: August 16, 2019, 04:13:30 PM »
read online:  https://www.onlinebook4u.net/horror/The_Terror/
Internet search for other (free) on-line, downloadable and audiobook options
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

HapHazard

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #214 on: August 16, 2019, 06:19:52 PM »
Brilliantly done TV show, too.

Jim Hunt

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #215 on: August 16, 2019, 07:03:34 PM »
Some slightly less terrifying sea ice seen on Altego II's recent excursion through Peel Sound:


https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=2584049234961317&id=100000687980960
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Phil.

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #216 on: August 16, 2019, 07:07:04 PM »
Bremen has travelled through ice-free flat calm waters for the last couple of days and is now off Cambridge Bay.  Looks fairly uneventful.

Killian

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #217 on: August 18, 2019, 05:28:48 PM »
Are these small vessels' hulls strengthened against ice?

Not necessarily. Tecla is "an original Dutch herring drifter built in 1915 to fish the North Seas under sail" and claims to be "The first tall ship to attempt the North West Passage":

And not waiting around for 6/10:

"We have left Pond Inlet behind and set sail for Navy Board Inlet, currently almost at the end of the Inlet, ready for Lancaster Sound. Lancaster Sound is said to be open enough to pass through with 2/10 ice and some isolated Icebergs."


Jim Hunt

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #218 on: August 19, 2019, 11:41:52 AM »
And not waiting around for 6/10

From Tecla's August 15th report in Peel Sound:

"Now we are slowly making our way through some big pack of sea ice. The flow North has become thicker, making it harder to manoeuvre.  We are trying to spot the way through by going up high into the mast, but for now the ice seems to be all around. We had all expected it to start at some point, so for now we are just biting our way through, poles at the ready to poke away bigger ice!"
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Phil.

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #219 on: August 19, 2019, 02:20:56 PM »
Randall Reeves seems to have made good progress down Peel in the last 24 hrs.
http://figure8voyage.com/figure-8-map/

Killian

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #220 on: August 19, 2019, 04:23:22 PM »
so for now we are just biting our way through, poles at the ready to poke away bigger ice!"

Exactly as one would expect. In the Arctic. No? If I sailed through the NWP and never had to slow down, I'd be really, really disappointed. The thrill comes from the location, certainly, but more so from the danger element. I'd want to spend hours or days having to pick through ice, or else why go?

Merriam-Webster says:

Quote
Definition of navigable

1a : deep enough and wide enough to afford passage to ships navigable waterways
b : capable of being navigated

Don't say nuttin' 'bout no ice!

;-)

Navigable is navigable. Can be gotten through or not - and need not be safe for every vessel, either, nor successful. That's a risk assessment issue, not a definition issue. I think maybe a series of benchmarks might be an interesting approach:

When icebreaker navigable - irrelevant at this point?
When double-hulled, Arctic-rated navigable.
When single-hulled, Arctic-rated navigable.
When double-hulled freight/oil navigable.
When single-hull freight/oil navigable.
When cruise ship navigable.
When yacht/pleasure craft/fishing boat navigable.

Or whatever. Maybe there's not enough difference to attempt a distinction...

Phil.

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #221 on: August 20, 2019, 02:31:29 PM »
Randall Reeves seems to have cleared the ice in  Peel.

Shared Humanity

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #222 on: August 20, 2019, 03:18:38 PM »
Killian...still boxing with shadows I see.

bill kapra

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #223 on: August 21, 2019, 02:28:51 AM »
Was looking for the Parry ice chart on Canadian Ice Service website but it comes up as unavailable and dated Aug.1. Is that because they don’t post until near-navigable?

Jim Hunt

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #224 on: August 21, 2019, 10:36:20 AM »
Was looking for the Parry ice chart on Canadian Ice Service website but it comes up as unavailable and dated Aug.1. Is that because they don’t post until near-navigable?

Yes.

Plan B is to look at the weekly chart, but that is still dated August 12th:
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Kognsfjorden

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #225 on: August 21, 2019, 03:43:31 PM »
It appears at least four small sailing boats are now through the worst of the ice, Alioth, Mandregore, Tecla and Moli, so the passage was open by at least August 19 th.

NeilHamp

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #226 on: September 02, 2019, 07:54:13 PM »
Does anyone know if any more than these four have got through this year?

NeilHamp

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Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« Reply #227 on: September 02, 2019, 08:06:07 PM »
2017 32 transits of NW passage
2018 only 2 transits
2019 only 4 transits so far

Looks like its getting tougher up there!