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etienne

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #150 on: July 27, 2023, 06:35:59 AM »
Could the high extent in the Arctic and the low one in Antarctica have something to do with the AMOC slow down or is this a stupid idea?

kassy

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #151 on: July 27, 2023, 02:05:16 PM »
The AMOC decline is a long term process so this years conditions really do not matter much.
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etienne

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #152 on: July 27, 2023, 08:52:19 PM »
Well, the last few years saw a reduced melting compared to the trend. If you look at this morning's data by Juan C. Garcia,
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3909.msg376269.html#msg376269
- 2020 is in the first position
- 2019 in the second position
- 2012 the record year in the third position
- 2021 is in the fourth position
...2011, 2007, 2016, 2017, 2015, 2013, 2018...
- 2022 is in the twelfth position
...2010...
- 2023 in the fourteenth

Could be a tipping point, but it is too early to say.

Added: we have also Gero's graphs where the peripheral arctic seas don't melt as fast as usually, but the central ones do.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3909.msg376345.html#msg376345
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3909.msg376343.html#msg376343

Added 2 : you can also look at Aluminium's animations. It seems that the melting on the Atlantic side is limited. He provides a link to compare with the yeas before up to 2018.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3941.msg376304.html#msg376304
« Last Edit: July 27, 2023, 09:26:34 PM by etienne »

kiwichick16

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #153 on: July 28, 2023, 02:57:06 AM »
we do know that deep water formation from Antarctica is slowing ...... recent studies suggest a 20 -  30 % percent reduction   ..... and i assume that means less cold water driving the circulation . The reduction is since 1990 so its had 30 years to start having an impact on the system

vox_mundi

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #154 on: August 03, 2023, 09:32:09 PM »
Winter Storms Over Labrador Sea Influence Gulf Stream System
https://phys.org/news/2023-08-winter-storms-labrador-sea-gulf.html

A team of scientists from the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research in Kiel, Germany, has now conducted a modeling study focusing on the Labrador Sea southwest of Greenland. In their study, now published in the journal Nature Communications, the researchers used complex computer simulations to show that fluctuations in the Labrador Sea can have a significant influence on the strength of sinking processes east of Greenland. An important link is a little-noticed system of deep currents that ensures rapid spreading of Labrador Sea water into the deep-sea basin between Greenland and Iceland.

"We oceanographers have long had our eyes on the Labrador Sea between Canada and Greenland," says Professor Dr. Claus Böning, who led the study. "Winter storms with icy air cool the ocean temperatures to such an extent that the surface water becomes heavier than the water below. The result is deep winter mixing of the water column, whereby the volume and density of the resulting water mass can vary greatly from year to year."

In the model simulations of the past 60 years, the years 1990 to 1994 stood out, when the Labrador Sea cooled particularly strongly. "The unusually large volume of very dense Labrador Sea water that formed following extremely harsh winters led to significantly increased sinking between Greenland and Iceland in the following years," explains Dr. Böning. As a result, the model simulations calculated an increase in Atlantic overturning transport of more than 20%, peaking in the late 1990s. The measurements of the circulation in the North Atlantic, which have only been carried out continuously since 2004, would then fall exactly in the decay phase of the simulated transport maximum.

"According to our model results, the observed weakening of the Atlantic circulation during this period can therefore be interpreted, at least in part, as an aftereffect of the extreme Labrador Sea winters of the 1990s," summarizes Professor Dr. Arne Biastoch, head of the Ocean Dynamics Research Unit at GEOMAR and co-author of the study. However, he clarifies, "Although we cannot yet say whether a longer-term weakening of the overturning is already occurring, all climate models predict a weakening as a result of human-induced climate change as 'very likely' for the future."



Circulation of the subpolar North Atlantic. Snapshot of surface speed in the high-resolution model VIKING20X, illustrating the meandering flow of the North Atlantic Current and the narrow boundary current emerging south of the Denmark Strait along the eastern continental shelf of Greenland. Shaded in grey is the area where convection exceeded 1800 m depth during the winters of 1990–1994. The black lines indicate the trans-Atlantic transport sections denoted SILL (dotted), FULL (solid), and its eastern portion EAST (dashed), as well as 48N (dashdot). The blue frame encloses the area for which the annually repeated heat flux is applied in experiment SENS. The black frame denotes the area of averaging for the water mass properties shown in Fig. 2. Credit: Nature Communications (2023). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-40323-9

C. W. Böning et al, Decadal changes in Atlantic overturning due to the excessive 1990s Labrador Sea convection, Nature Communications (2023).
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-40323-9
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kiwichick16

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #155 on: August 04, 2023, 02:45:44 AM »
Pinotubo Volcanic eruption  1991  may have had an effect on the later part of that 1990-1994 period

https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/volcanic_ash/pinatubo_1991.html

FishOutofWater

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #156 on: August 26, 2023, 11:37:14 PM »
There has been an apparent modest decline in the AMOC over the past 70 years but the natural variability is so high that it is not statistically significant... at least according to one group's interpretation of the data. There are many different perspectives and apparent results in studies of the AMOC. The science is not only unsettled, it is unsettling.



There was a peak in density of Irminger sea water in the early to mid 90s associated with the repeated strong cold air outbreaks into the Labrador sea region. Major storms that develop in the southern Labrador sea frequently bomb out to extremely low pressures off the tip of Greenland so there's a direct connection of the weather and of the Irminger and Labrador seas.

Yes, there is general agreement about the AMOC peaking in the 1990-1995 period. There was a weak AMOC period that went from 1996 - 2012 followed by a recovery that did not make it back to the peak in the early nineties.

The detailed science is still being debated as this article from 2020 shows.

4 Conclusion and Implications

From the first synthesis of in situ observations (OSNAP and NACLIM) and air-sea buoyancy exchanges in each basin of the subpolar North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas, a new understanding of overturning in the eastern subpolar gyre emerges. The sources for the AMOC lower limb deep water are, in order of importance, the Irminger and Iceland basins, the Nordic Seas, and finally the Labrador Sea. This relevance stands in contrast to past studies that partitioned the deep water sources between the Nordic and Labrador Seas. We suggest that this earlier partitioning resulted from the fact that part of the deep waters formed in the Irminger and Iceland basins are carried toward the Labrador Sea via the Deep Western Boundary Current. Then, although they are further modified in the Labrador Sea and exit the basin as “Labrador Sea Water,” the bulk of these waters joined the lower limb of the AMOC upstream.

Our results reveal that the production of deep water in the Irminger and Iceland basins can almost entirely be accounted for by buoyancy forcing over those basins. The close agreement between overturning and buoyancy forcing over the subpolar gyre highlights the key role of air-sea fluxes in establishing the state of the AMOC. Furthermore, considering the relatively large fraction of transformed water that is stored in the Irminger and Iceland basins each year, an investigation into the sensitivity of the AMOC to previously observed intense interannual variability in this region (Josey et al., 2018, 2019) is warranted.


It's really important to note that the cold anomaly that we observed in the late teens was not a sign of a weakening AMOC according to these scientists and the figures they display. The cold anomaly was associated with the invigoration of the AMOC after a ~18 year period of weakness.

3.4 What Can Irminger Sea Density Tell us About the Strength of the Subpolar AMOC Over the Last 70 Years?

There is evidence in the literature that proxies or fingerprints that explain a specific AMOC timescale or mechanism are not necessarily reliable indicators or predictors of long-term AMOC change (e.g., Little et al., 2020; Jackson & Wood, 2020), and that there may be alternative explanations for density variability that are unrelated to the overturning (e.g., L. Li et al., 2022). However, the strong relationship between Irminger Sea density and subpolar AMOC change present in OSNAP and GloSea5 provides us with a robust, albeit indirect, measure that can be used to examine long-term AMOC trends.

In Figure 5, we examine the long-term annual-mean density anomalies (annual cycle removed) in the SPNA with focus on the Irminger Sea. The Irminger Sea density time series shows a multi-year variability with positive and negative density anomalies during the 1970–1990 and 1996–2010 period, respectively. The long-term change of this time series over the past 70 years is −0.035 kg/m3 (or −0.005 kg/m3 per decade). Using the observed regression slope between Irminger Sea density and AMOC at OSNAP East (Figure 1c), this decline implies a weakening of ∼2.2 Sv or 13% over this period, which is not inconsistent with the Caesar et al. (2018) estimate of 3 ± 1 Sv since the mid-twentieth century. However, because of the large interannual and decadal variability seen in Figure 5, this linear trend remains statistically insignificant at the 95% confidence level.

(Please open images in new tabs if they don't render properly.)



ref:https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL099133

Rodius

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #157 on: August 27, 2023, 02:41:05 AM »
It looks like the AMOC may be acting like an underwater wave, albeit a super huge and slow moving one.
« Last Edit: August 27, 2023, 10:50:46 PM by kassy »

kassy

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #158 on: August 27, 2023, 10:25:50 AM »
The AMOC: tipping this century, or not?

...

In other words: we are talking about risk analysis and disaster prevention. This is not about being 100% sure that the AMOC will pass its tipping point this century; it is that we’d like to be 100% sure that it won’t. Even if there were just (say) a 40% chance that the Ditlevsen study is correct in the tipping point being reached between 2025 and 2095, that’s a major change to the previous IPCC assessment that the risk is less than 10%. Even a <10% chance as of IPCC (for which there is only “medium confidence” that it’s so small) is in my view a massive concern. That concern has increased greatly with the Ditlevsen study – that is the point, and not whether it’s 100% correct and certain.

...

For the AMOC (and other climate tipping points), the only action we can take to minimise the risk is to get out of fossil fuels and stop deforestation as fast as possible. One major assumption of the Ditlevsen study is that global warming continues as in past decades. That is in our hands – or more precisely, that of our governments and powerful corporations. In 2022, the G20 governments alone subsidised fossil fuel use with 1.4 trillion dollars, up by 475% above the previous year. They aren’t trying to end fossil fuels.

...

https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2023/08/the-amoc-tipping-this-century-or-not/
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FishOutofWater

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #159 on: August 27, 2023, 04:23:32 PM »
Yes, we need to do risk management because the science of the AMOC is still being worked out. It is a complex system that may behave unpredictably. My personal assessment it that the southern overturning circulation is in more immediate danger of a large slow down as described by James Hansen, but I'm no expert and even if I were the experts do not agree on the details.

The big picture point is that GHG emissions have already begun destabilizing the global ocean circulation. We need to stop adding CO2, CH4, SF6 and long lived halocarbons to the atmosphere. Sudden catastrophic changes in ocean currents are possible in the next few decades if we don't make rapid reductions in emissions. We may have already set these changes in motion but we can't give up.

kassy

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #160 on: August 27, 2023, 11:09:26 PM »
It looks like the AMOC may be acting like an underwater wave, albeit a super huge and slow moving one.

But it is a current and thus not a wave. Very different behaviours.
Some parts move alike because it is all moving water.
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vox_mundi

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #161 on: September 26, 2023, 05:47:17 PM »
New Study Definitively Confirms Gulf Stream Weakening
https://phys.org/news/2023-09-definitively-gulf-stream-weakening.html

The Gulf Stream transport of water through the Florida Straits has slowed by 4% over the past four decades, with 99% certainty that this weakening is more than expected from random chance, according to a new study.

The Gulf Stream—which is a major ocean current off the U.S. East Coast and a part of the North Atlantic Ocean circulation—plays an important role in weather and climate, and a weakening could have significant implications.

"We conclude with a high degree of confidence that Gulf Stream transport has indeed slowed by about 4% in the past 40 years, the first conclusive, unambiguous observational evidence that this ocean current has undergone significant change in the recent past," states the journal article, "Robust weakening of the Gulf Stream during the past four decades observed in the Florida Straits," published in Geophysical Research Letters.

By virtue of its volume and heat transports, the Gulf Stream affects regional weather, climate, and coastal conditions, including European surface air temperature and precipitation, coastal sea level along the Southeastern United States, and North Atlantic hurricane activity.

We find with virtual certainty (probability P > 99%) that Gulf Stream volume transport through the Florida Straits declined by 1.2 ± 1.0 Sv in the past 40 years (95% credible interval). This significant trend has emerged from the data set only over the past ten years, the first unequivocal evidence for a recent multidecadal decline in this climate-relevant component of ocean circulation.

The study builds on many earlier studies to quantify long-term change in Gulf Stream transport. While the weakening found in the current study is consistent with hypotheses from many previous studies, Piecuch noted that the current study is "water-tight" and is "the first unequivocal evidence of a decline."

Christopher G. Piecuch et al, Robust Weakening of the Gulf Stream During the Past Four Decades Observed in the Florida Straits, Geophysical Research Letters (2023).
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GL105170
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Sublime_Rime

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #162 on: September 26, 2023, 06:16:16 PM »
New Study Definitively Confirms Gulf Stream Weakening
https://phys.org/news/2023-09-definitively-gulf-stream-weakening.html

The Gulf Stream transport of water through the Florida Straits has slowed by 4% over the past four decades, with 99% certainty that this weakening is more than expected from random chance, according to a new study.

Christopher G. Piecuch et al, Robust Weakening of the Gulf Stream During the Past Four Decades Observed in the Florida Straits, Geophysical Research Letters (2023).
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GL105170

At 1% per decade, this seems almost like good news relative to my expectations of the potential changes in ocean circulation with the current amount of OHC increase.
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johnm33

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #163 on: September 26, 2023, 07:48:47 PM »
Quote
New Study Definitively Confirms Gulf Stream Weakening
https://phys.org/news/2023-09-definitively-gulf-stream-weakening.html
If there are higher tides only north of 350 then I would suspect increased Arctic outflows to be inhibiting the movement north of waters from the Gulf.

vox_mundi

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #164 on: September 26, 2023, 08:39:54 PM »
They're taking measurements in the Gulf of Florida over the past 40 yrs.



Orange lines mark nominal locations of submarine telecommunications cables between Jupiter Inlet (Florida) and Settlement Point (The Bahamas), and between West Palm Beach (Florida) and Eight Mile Rock (The Bahamas). Yellow line at 27°N marks nominal location of in situ sections.

Although 1%/decade is not huge, 6 times the flow of the Amazon River is a lot of heat that doesn't make it to Europe.

This is the flat part of the 'slippery slope.' Wait till it picks up speed.
« Last Edit: September 26, 2023, 10:50:20 PM by vox_mundi »
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kassy

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #165 on: September 26, 2023, 09:19:45 PM »
And bonus questions are what caused this and how will it evolve. The fact that we can measure or detect these things now means we got a problem because we cannot just stop these things or turn them around.
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vox_mundi

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #166 on: October 09, 2023, 08:03:33 PM »
New Study Finds That the Gulf Stream Is Warming and Shifting Closer to Shore
https://phys.org/news/2023-10-gulf-stream-shifting-closer-shore.html

The Gulf Stream is intrinsic to the global climate system, bringing warm waters from the Caribbean up the East Coast of the United States. As it flows along the coast and then across the Atlantic Ocean, this powerful ocean current influences weather patterns and storms, and it carries heat from the tropics to higher latitudes as part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.

A new study published today in Nature Climate Change now documents that over the past 20 years, the Gulf Stream has warmed faster than the global ocean as a whole and has shifted towards the coast. The study, led by Robert Todd, a physical oceanographer at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), relies on over 25,000 temperature and salinity profiles collected between 2001 and 2023.

"The warming we see near the Gulf Stream is due to two combined effects. One is that the ocean is absorbing excess heat from the atmosphere as the climate warms," said Todd. "The second is that the Gulf Stream itself is gradually shifting towards the coast."

He and study co-author Alice Ren, also a physical oceanographer at WHOI, found that the near-surface layer of the Gulf Stream has changed most prominently. According to their data, it has warmed on average by about 1°C (1.8 °F) over the past two decades, becoming increasingly lighter than the waters below. The team also found the Gulf Stream to be shifting closer to the shore by about 5 kilometers (3.1 miles) per decade on average, meaning that the Gulf Stream is moving gradually closer to the Northeastern United States continental shelf.

"It can be difficult to make predictions about a current like the Gulf Stream using numerical modeling," said Ren. "Our paper is important in that it provides observational details about our changing weather and changing climate."

Just like the jet stream in the atmosphere, the Gulf Stream sways and oscillates within the ocean. With its average position getting closer to the coast, Todd pointed out that those large oscillations could more easily and suddenly influence coastal fisheries—for example, water temperature could go from 12°C to 20°C in a very short period of time.

Robert E. Todd et al, Warming and lateral shift of the Gulf Stream from in situ observations since 2001, Nature Climate Change (2023)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01835-w
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Niall Dollard

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #167 on: December 19, 2023, 10:52:58 PM »
Evidence lacking, for a pending collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01877-0

Some errors found in this original article

hst_319

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #168 on: February 11, 2024, 11:07:13 PM »
New research using the community earth system model seems to indicate that freshwater influx can lead to AMOC collapse.

Good news is that they found a way to measure this tipping point.

Quote
We have developed a physics-based, and observable (36, 42), early warning signal characterizing the tipping point of the AMOC: the minimum of the AMOC-induced freshwater transport at 34°S in the Atlantic, here indicated by FovS. The FovS minimum occurs 25 years (9 to 41, 10 and 90% percentiles) before the AMOC tipping event.

Bad news is i'll freeze...


https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189

kiwichick16

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #169 on: February 12, 2024, 03:04:19 AM »

trm1958

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #170 on: February 12, 2024, 02:27:15 PM »
So let me get this straight...
if the AMOC stops, the northern hemisphere will actually get colder? Not just north Atlantic/Europe?

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #171 on: February 12, 2024, 05:05:51 PM »

The AMOC is responsible for a significant % of the heat transfer from the equator to the poles. I read a while ago (sorry, I can't remember the reference) that about 1/2 the heat transfer to the North Pole is in the ocean, half in the atmosphere. My hypothesis is two things will happen:

1) Arctic Ice will grow over the Barents Sea,
2) The energy imbalance between the North Pole and the Tropics will grow until the heat being transferred in the Oceans can be transferred by the atmosphere - with the subsequent increase in storms from higher humidity and a larger temperature difference.


johnm33

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #172 on: February 12, 2024, 09:35:20 PM »
Quote
2) The energy imbalance between the North Pole and the Tropics will grow until the heat being transferred in the Oceans can be transferred by the atmosphere - with the subsequent increase in storms from higher humidity and a larger temperature difference.
I have a 180 on this. As the overturning current slows down in the N.Atl. it will increase in the Arctic, since there's no stopping the tides, which drive the currents, warm Atl. waters will continue to flow into the Arctic displacing a similar amount of Arctic waters. Since the Atl. waters have excess inertia they flow in through Fram, and across the Barents shelf perhaps becoming energetically neutral in Laptev or in the ESS, this means they are driving out waters from the near polar regions right now. At some point the temps. in Barents, Kara and perhaps a little further will rise to around 10C in the winter, greatly reducing the temp. gradient between there and the tropics.
I suspect it will take some time to lose all the fresher near surface lens of water from the ocean but once it's gone the cold deeper layers will flow out and drop into the abyss via Denmark strait having only a generally cooling effect on the waters they pass beneath.
    As far as I'm concerned I'm watching the Arctic become included in the worlds ocean circulation in real time and short of some catastrophic cooling, to refreeze the Arctic, but forbidden by uniformitarians the change will continue to gather momentum.

Rodius

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #173 on: February 13, 2024, 07:52:04 AM »
So let me get this straight...
if the AMOC stops, the northern hemisphere will actually get colder? Not just north Atlantic/Europe?

That is correct.

Mostly Europe and the estimate of decrease is 6 C.
It will be too cold to grow crops there... Europe will basically end as it is today. No idea where the people will move though but that is what climate migration is I suppose.

SeanAU

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #174 on: February 13, 2024, 08:47:07 AM »
Quote
2) The energy imbalance between the North Pole and the Tropics will grow until the heat being transferred in the Oceans can be transferred by the atmosphere - with the subsequent increase in storms from higher humidity and a larger temperature difference.
I have a 180 on this. As the overturning current slows down in the N.Atl. it will increase in the Arctic, since there's no stopping the tides, which drive the currents, warm Atl. waters will continue to flow into the Arctic displacing a similar amount of Arctic waters. Since the Atl. waters have excess inertia they flow in through Fram, and across the Barents shelf perhaps becoming energetically neutral in Laptev or in the ESS, this means they are driving out waters from the near polar regions right now. At some point the temps. in Barents, Kara and perhaps a little further will rise to around 10C in the winter, greatly reducing the temp. gradient between there and the tropics.
I suspect it will take some time to lose all the fresher near surface lens of water from the ocean but once it's gone the cold deeper layers will flow out and drop into the abyss via Denmark strait having only a generally cooling effect on the waters they pass beneath.
    As far as I'm concerned I'm watching the Arctic become included in the worlds ocean circulation in real time and short of some catastrophic cooling, to refreeze the Arctic, but forbidden by uniformitarians the change will continue to gather momentum.

John if there is anything to that, what came to my mind was the warming of ESS frozen methane calthrates (whatever the semantics are) on the shelves etc occurring before any major ocean current atmos temp shifts. Only my intuition, who knows what the experts think. I have not kept up for years now. ( I retired )

anecdote, once upon a time, early 2010s I used to get trashed by pseudo experts (climate science groupies) online when I suggested , logic suggests that in the not too distant future the entire enso la nina el nino cycles dynamic would collapse (or massively change) as the higher co2 levels and temps increased and localized (ocean/seas warming issues) extreme weather events / systems changes also occurred in ways not expected or predictable.

Laughed at and ridiculed. Just for thinking outside the Box.

A few others could see the same. but we didn't have PhDs. You don't need to go far now to see these very things discussed in multiple science papers less than a decade later.  and there is many a enso expert who think the longterm GCMs are bs in regard enso, and other ocean circulation temp weather issues driven by enso or rather vice versa.

 I also said won't be long before CO2 rates increase to high 3s and then +4 ppm per year. and 1.5C target will be obliterated in the 2020s .... and the summer blue ocean event 2024 +/- 2 years. You just watch this summer mate.  ;)
« Last Edit: February 13, 2024, 08:59:57 AM by SeanAU »
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gerontocrat

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #175 on: February 13, 2024, 03:12:12 PM »
Consequences, consequences
AMOC & the Great Ocean Conveyor (GCC)?


The science literature generally has the sinking of cold very saline water in the far NE Atlantic as the start of the Great Ocean Conveyor.

I think the concept is that the AMOC slowdown may be caused by large inflows of low density freshwater from melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet due to AGW, which reduces salinity in the NW Atlantic so it will not sink.

If the AMOC stops, does the Great Ocean Conveyor stop, and if so, how quickly?. It seems that the circulation GCC takes 1 to 2 thousand years, but if the engine is switched off...?

And if this causes a big drop in temperatures, will melting of the GIS stop?
And if that happens, will the surface water in the NE Atlantic increase in salinity and start to sink again, reviving the AMOC?

In just one science paper I found one reference to the possibility of a GCC Hiatus.
Presumably if the GCC slows down / stops, the climatic effects (plus the global circulation of ocean nutrients) will be global.

Or have I got it all wrong?
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kassy

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #176 on: February 13, 2024, 08:23:59 PM »
The AMOC is just one part of the equation. The decline in AABW formation is much bigger and it all feeds into the same system.

Quote
I think the concept is that the AMOC slowdown may be caused by large inflows of low density freshwater from melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet due to AGW, which reduces salinity in the NW Atlantic so it will not sink.

It is also influenced by how much water freezes every year and how much brine extrudes from that. That is probably still more important then Greenland. The steady decline in ASI volume also corresponds to less salt mixing down.
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kiwichick16

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #177 on: February 13, 2024, 08:39:56 PM »

gerontocrat

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #178 on: February 14, 2024, 03:05:05 PM »
The AMOC is just one part of the equation. The decline in AABW formation is much bigger and it all feeds into the same system.

This article from Yale Connections (April 2023) gives a good explanation of the impact of the changes in Antarctica. Well worth a read

This looks like the Great Ocean Conveyor is under threat at both engines.
Also of note is that the production of downwelling cold very saline water in Antarctica  is concentrated in the Weddell Sea.

https://e360.yale.edu/features/climate-change-ocean-circulation-collapse-antarctica
Quote
New Research Sparks Concerns That Ocean Circulation Will Collapse

Scientists have long feared that warming could cause a breakdown of ocean circulation in the North Atlantic. But new research finds the real risk lies in Antarctica’s waters, where melting could disrupt currents in the next few decades, with profound impacts on global climate.

It is being hailed as a sea change in scientific understanding of the global ocean circulation system and how it will respond as the world heats up. A doomsday scenario involving the collapse of the circulation — previously portrayed in both peer-reviewed research and the climate disaster movie The Day After Tomorrow — came a lot closer in the last month. But rather than playing out in the far North Atlantic, as previously assumed, it now seems much more likely at the opposite end of the planet.

A new analysis by Australian and American researchers, using new and more detailed modeling of the oceans, predicts that the long-feared turn-off of the circulation will likely occur in the Southern Ocean, as billions of tons of ice melt on the land mass of Antarctica. And rather than being more than a century away, as models predict for the North Atlantic, it could happen within the next three decades.

Leading ocean and climate researchers not involved in the study who were contacted for comment praised the findings. “This is a really important paper,” says Stefan Rahmstorf, an oceanographer and head of earth system analysis at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. “I think the method and model are convincing.”

The two studies bring a dramatically new perspective to the likely impact of planetary heating on ocean circulation.

“It is the most original research I have seen for some time,” says British polar researcher Andrew Shepherd of Northumbria University, Newcastle. “I was genuinely surprised by this work, but they have convinced me. It is agenda-setting. All the attention has been on the North Atlantic; but I expect there will now be a shift in attention to the Southern Ocean.”

Meanwhile the long-standing concern about a shutdown of the ocean circulation in the North Atlantic sometime in the 21st century appears to be subsiding. A Swiss study published this month found that, contrary to past belief, the circulation did not fail at the end of the last ice age, suggesting, the researchers say, that it was more stable than previously supposed, and less likely to collapse.

Taken together the two studies bring a dramatically new perspective to the likely impact of planetary heating on ocean circulation, which is one of the great stabilizing forces of the planet’s climate system.

The ocean circulation system, often called the global conveyor, follows a regular path through the Earth’s oceans and stirs their waters from top to bottom. It starts with water plunging from the surface and disappearing to the depths, from where it travels the world and does not surface for centuries. By capturing heat and carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and burying both deep in the ocean, it is currently moderating global warming.[/size]
« Last Edit: February 14, 2024, 03:10:47 PM by gerontocrat »
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kassy

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #179 on: February 14, 2024, 07:42:04 PM »
Indeed. Also see reply 133 but that is a page back. ;)

If you look at pictures of ocean flows they are all connected so these two are too. There was this interesting seesaw pattern related to the DO cycles which maybe involved this too.

The title of this thread is pretty appropriate. We have a slowdown not a shutdown. Now what this does to European temperatures over time is complicated. As the study cited indicates it will take a long time to collapse so we also have these other things at play in the mean time. So fractional BOE up north and much weakened outflows from the poles which will lead to extra stratification so more surface warming and less CO2 uptake.

If you decrease European temps by 6C and use a fudge factor of 2 vs global temps then that is only minus 2C at 2C over global. That is actually nice as argued in some paper ages ago

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gerontocrat

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #180 on: February 14, 2024, 08:38:42 PM »
Indeed. Also see reply 133 but that is a page back. ;)

If you look at pictures of ocean flows they are all connected so these two are too. There was this interesting seesaw pattern related to the DO cycles which maybe involved this too.

The title of this thread is pretty appropriate. We have a slowdown not a shutdown. Now what this does to European temperatures over time is complicated. As the study cited indicates it will take a long time to collapse so we also have these other things at play in the mean time. So fractional BOE up north and much weakened outflows from the poles which will lead to extra stratification so more surface warming and less CO2 uptake.

If you decrease European temps by 6C and use a fudge factor of 2 vs global temps then that is only minus 2C at 2C over global. That is actually nice as argued in some paper ages ago
Many years ago James Lovelock reckoned that eventually the AMOC would grind to a halt, but by that time, global AGW would be so high that Eurioe would only see a modest fall in temperatures.

Mind you, if global ocean and atmospheric heat movement to the poles is reduced heat will stay at lower latitudes.
Hurricanes & Cyclones?
Wet Bulb temperatures?
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HapHazard

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #181 on: February 14, 2024, 11:03:46 PM »
I recall reading quite some time ago in a journal that if the AMOC stops, heat transfer from the tropics to the poles would increase via the atmosphere vis-à-vis atmospheric circulation changes (particularly mid-latitude cells). My memory is quite fuzzy on that, so I'm unsure if I'm remembering correctly. The gist of it is that heat transfer always "tries" to balance out.
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trm1958

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #182 on: February 15, 2024, 01:01:22 AM »
So let me get this straight...
if the AMOC stops, the northern hemisphere will actually get colder? Not just north Atlantic/Europe?

That is correct.

Mostly Europe and the estimate of decrease is 6 C.
It will be too cold to grow crops there... Europe will basically end as it is today. No idea where the people will move though but that is what climate migration is I suppose.
How much will they drop upwind of the Gulf Stream, say Midwest USA?

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Rodius

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #184 on: February 15, 2024, 06:48:52 AM »
So let me get this straight...
if the AMOC stops, the northern hemisphere will actually get colder? Not just north Atlantic/Europe?

That is correct.

Mostly Europe and the estimate of decrease is 6 C.
It will be too cold to grow crops there... Europe will basically end as it is today. No idea where the people will move though but that is what climate migration is I suppose.
How much will they drop upwind of the Gulf Stream, say Midwest USA?

From memory, the US drop will not be as much so the consequences will be less but not insignificant. The US can adapt to it.

But that is from memory... I think the key take away is the AMOC stopping is very bad on the whole, especially for Europe.
I don't think it is something it can survive so lets hope we don't find out.

Niall Dollard

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #185 on: February 19, 2024, 09:31:40 PM »
The Iceland-Faroese stream, the most important part of the heat transport in the Gulf Stream from the tropics towards the Arctic, shows no signs of weakening. According to this study from the Faroese research institute Havstovan and the National Center for Climate Research (NCKF):

https://os.copernicus.org/articles/19/1225/2023/

In fact they concluded that the current was strengthening.

Over 29 years of monitoring, using improved satellite altimetry, " the Iceland Faroe inflow had a slight (9 %) increase in volume transport and also an increase (13 %) in heat transport relative to a temperature of 0°C"

morganism

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #186 on: February 19, 2024, 11:32:18 PM »
(so more heat going to Finland?  Wonder if the arm on the other side of Greenland (W) is being blocked more by freshwater, walling off that percentage, and funneling it further east? Isn't that west arm where the stationary high always sits?

vox_mundi

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #187 on: March 26, 2024, 03:27:32 AM »
Study Documents Slowing of Atlantic Currents
https://phys.org/news/2024-03-documents-atlantic-currents.html


A scheme of the upper-layer circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean. Red=warm currents, blue=cold currents. White boxes 1 to 5 indicate five different areas of analysis where temperature, salinity, and current velocities presumably differ considerably. Credit: Frontiers in Marine Science (2024). DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2024.1345426

While scientists have observed oceans heating up for decades and theorized that their rising temperatures weaken global currents, a new study led by a University of Maryland researcher documents for the first time a significant slowing of a crucial ocean current system that plays a role in regulating Earth's climate.

Published recently in Frontiers in Marine Science, the paper led by Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center (ESSIC) scientist Alexey Mishonov examined decades of data on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) found in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) World Ocean Atlas.

Mishonov and co-authors Dan Seidov and James Reagan from NOAA discovered that the current system's flow remained stable and consistent from 1955 to 1994. However, in the mid-1990s, AMOC strength began to decline and the current began to move slower, which the scientists attribute to the continued warming of the ocean's surface and the accompanying changes in the salinity of its upper layers.

... Mishonov and co-authors believe that the key to understanding the ocean climate trajectory is identifying how the North Atlantic climate responds to ongoing surface warming over decadal timespans.

The researchers used World Ocean Atlas data covering 1955–2017 as well as climate reanalysis data on decadal wind stress and sea surface height fields from UMD's Simple Ocean Data Assimilation project to determine fingerprints of the North Atlantic's circulation and AMOC's dynamics.

The authors found that although the entire North Atlantic is systematically warming, the climate trajectories in its different subregions reveal radically different characteristics of regional decadal variability, reflecting diverse climate patterns. For example, while the temperature has gradually increased from 1955 to 2017, it dropped in the more northern Atlantic from 1955 to 1994, then rose from 1995 to 2017. Similar patterns are also visible in salinity and density.

This variation in climate characteristics indicates that the current situation may not predict what the future may hold, including whether AMOC's slowdown will persist, accelerate or diminish in the next decade. However, the paper suggests that scenarios involving the slowdown or collapse of AMOC cannot be dismissed. Next, the authors plan to explore other regions of the global ocean to look for similar patterns in long-term temperature and salinity variability.

Alexey Mishonov et al, Revisiting the multidecadal variability of North Atlantic Ocean circulation and climate, Frontiers in Marine Science (2024)
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2024.1345426/full
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Freegrass

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #188 on: March 27, 2024, 11:02:42 AM »
Good 13-minute video on the AMOC slowdown and the cold blob.

90% of the world is religious, but somehow "love thy neighbour" became "fuck thy neighbours", if they don't agree with your point of view.

WTF happened?

Niall Dollard

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #189 on: March 29, 2024, 01:19:14 PM »
Glad to see at the very end of the video, she pointed out it is far more complex than the previous 12 minutes or so of the video suggest.

She points to this study by ChengFei He et al.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL100420

Bit of a slap on the wrist for Rahmstorf at the end of the paper.

"5.3 Fingerprint of the AMOC

The fingerprint of cooling in the subpolar Atlantic Ocean and warming in the Gulf Stream has been used as a proxy for the AMOC strength (Caesar et al., 2018; Rahmstorf et al., 2015). This fingerprint along with the warming in the South Atlantic also emerges in our SOM simulations purely driven by the atmospheric dynamics and is similar to the observation (Figure S7 in Supporting Information S1 vs. Figure 2 in Caesar et al., 2018). Given that SST is heavily influenced by atmospheric processes, this raises concerns about inferring the state of the AMOC based on SST. Subsurface temperature is a better alternate (He et al., 2020; Zhang, 2008)."

Chengfei He's paper shows the atmosphere alone can account for ∼50% of the observed cooling trend in the subpolar North Atlantic and ∼90% of the cooling relative to the temperature change of the global ocean. They find this cooling is caused by increased local westerlies in response to external forcing that enhance heat loss from the ocean through turbulent heat fluxes.

morganism

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #190 on: April 14, 2024, 08:03:50 PM »
(lots of info on the cold blob, the tipping point, and satt data in here.  Rahmstorf april 10)

Is the #AMOC approaching a tipping point? Here's my take after researching this topic for over 30 years. Open access, peer-reviewed, in full colour & understandable for non-experts.
tos.org/oceanography/article…

https://nitter.poast.org/rahmstorf/status/1778444205234258364#m

Overview article - Is the Atlantic Overturning Circulation Approaching a Tipping Point?

https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/overview-article-the-atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-as-a-tipping-point

and the heavy lifting:

https://tos.org/oceanography/article/is-the-atlantic-overturning-circulation-approaching-a-tipping-point

(here is his thread on the visuals used in the papers)
Here's a thread in pictures about the Atlantic overturning circulation #AMOC which is making headlines this week. I've studied this topic since 1991 and will show key data and models & some video.
Let's go: observed temperature trend since 1901


https://nitter.poast.org/rahmstorf/status/1684903347118051328#m


kassy

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Re: AMOC slowdown?
« Reply #191 on: April 22, 2024, 08:26:51 PM »
Warming of Antarctic deep-sea waters contribute to sea level rise in North Atlantic, study finds

Analysis of mooring observations and hydrographic data suggest the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation deep water limb in the North Atlantic has weakened. Two decades of continual observations provide a greater understanding of the Earth's climate regulating system.

A new study published in the journal Nature Geoscience led by scientists at University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, found that human-induced environmental changes around Antarctica are contributing to sea level rise in the North Atlantic.

The research team analyzed two decades of deep sea oceanographic data collected by observational mooring programs to show that a critical piece of Earth's global system of ocean currents in the North Atlantic has weakened by about 12 percent over the past two decades.

"Although these regions are tens of thousands of miles away from each other and abyssal areas are a few miles below the ocean surface, our results reinforce the notion that even the most remote areas of the world's oceans are not untouched by human activity," said the study's lead author Tiago Biló, an assistant scientist at the Rosenstiel School's NOAA Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies.

As part of the NOAA-funded project DeepT (Innovative analysis of deep and abyssal temperatures from bottom-moored instrument), the scientists analyzed data from several observational programs to study changes over time in a cold, dense, and deep water mass located at depths greater than 4,000 meters (2.5 miles) below the ocean surface that flow from the Southern Ocean northward and eventually upwells to shallower depths in other parts of the global ocean such as the North Atlantic.

This shrinking deep-ocean branch -- that scientists call the abyssal limb -- is part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a three-dimensional system of ocean currents that act as a "conveyer belt" to distribute heat, nutrients, and carbon dioxide across the world's oceans.

This near-bottom branch is comprised of Antarctic bottom water, which forms from the cooling of seawater in the Southern Ocean around Antarctica during winter months.

Among the different formation mechanisms of this bottom water, perhaps the most important is the so-called brine rejection, a process that occurs when salty water freezes.

As sea ice forms, it releases salt into the surrounding water, increasing its density.

This dense water sinks to the ocean floor, creating a cold, dense water layer that spreads northward to fill all three ocean basins -- the Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic oceans.

During the 21st century, the researchers observed that the flow of this Antarctic layer across 16°N latitude in the Atlantic had slowed down, reducing the inflow of cold waters to higher latitudes, and leading to warming of waters in the deep ocean.

"The areas affected by this warming spans thousands of miles in the north-south and east-west directions between 4,000- and 6,000-meters of depth," said William Johns, a co-author and professor of ocean sciences at the Rosenstiel School.


"As a result, there is a significant increase in the abyssal ocean heat content, contributing to local sea level rise due to the thermal expansion of the water."

"Our observational analysis matches what the numerical models have predicted -- human activity could potentially impose circulation changes on the entire ocean," said Biló. "This analysis was only possible because of the decades of collective planning and efforts by multiple oceanographic institutions worldwide."

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/04/240419131807.htm
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