Call it -75k +/-15k km sq.
Another reasonably good call. ASIE dropped 70k (about 66k actual, I think) to 5.72, within my *generous* margin of error. Nice, though, that the rounded error is within 5k since I use the rounded numbers from the JAXA graph. Even the unrounded came in at less than a 10k deviation and I usually use a 10k +/- error . I think we get to call this a victory, eh?
Note on Method:
1. Look at wind directions and temps via Nullschool. Primary data.
2. Look at Worldview actual ice movement. Mostly the previous day's ice, but I can see a little of the day being predicted at the time I predict, which can help confirm the wind forecasts.
3. Look at info posted by others on the forums here, so whatever others happen to post.
This is enough to get reasonably accurate predictions on occasion. I've not been able to make it any more sophisticated than that, so far, but for extent, wind, currents and bottom melt will be key because we don't need any change in area or volume to get changes in extent; ice movement is enough, so ultimately I decided winds are the central data needed. Energy in the system - heat - is likely what I'd look at for area with storms next.
FYI, in case anyone is curious and it wasn't already obvious.
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Daily Change to Exceed 2012 Record Daily Lows
8/05/2012 = 5.65M km sq.
8/04/2019 = Loss of > 70k km sq. required for the record.
*Note the very large 140k drop for 2012.*
Call it -85k +/-10k km sq.
Analysis:
There seems to be/may be a lot of the slush ice melting because of the high temps flowing in to the Chukchi, ESS, Laptev and Beaufort Seas. And that, quite simply, tells the tale for 8/05.
Looks like 2019 has at least a 50% chance of retaining the record one more day. No more than that, I'm fairly certain. Look for '19 and '12 to be very, very close on the 5th. If my prediction is correct, '19 should be lower by a smidgen.
Daily Changes Needed to Exceed 2012 low on Aug. 10. (Related to effect of GAC and it's import vs. 2019's melt cycle.)
8/10/2012 stood at 4.94M km sq.
2019 needs an average daily drop of > 129.83k km sq. for a record low on this post-GAC date. (7 days.) (Sorry... yesterday's was 8, not 9.)
Done. This just isn't going to happen. However, with the reduction - if my prediction holds - and the fluff in the Chukchi and Beaufort starting, on the 5th, to really diminish, it's worth watching to the end. The way the extent edge is determined means there's a lot of area that can suddenly disappear still.
Daily Changes Needed to Exceed 2012 Record Low on Sept. 15. (Related to comparison of 2012 vs 2019's melt cycle.)
9/15/2012 stood at 3.18M km sq. on this date.
2019 needs an average daily drop of > 60.45k km sq. for a record low on this date. (42 days) <-- Also wrong yesterday.
Without some big days over the next week, it gets a lot less likely '19 challenges the record. that number has to be down to 20k by Sept 1.