Correct analysis, wrong number.
History repeats. I said...
Call it -75k +/-10k km sq.
but it came in 16k lower than my lowest possible at 5.51M, for the reasons stated, so far as I can tell. I also said...
And, that, Dear Readers, would be the end of 2019's record run, likely for the rest of the melt season.
...and damned if the two didn't cross, though at a little lower level. (The lesson I would share here is patterns, while not everything, are something, and having what we in permaculture call "pattern literacy" is vital to analysis. Not a hard call, right? However, I did first make a little while back.)
Daily Change to Exceed 2012 Record Daily Lows8/07/2012 = 5.38M km sq.
8/06/2019 = Stands at 5.51M. Loss of > 130k km sq. needed to set a daily record for this date.
Analysis: What stands out is how the ice is not responding strongly to the winds, but seems to be driven by the melt momentum almost exclusively bc the winds in no way supported a drop so large, but the melt season and surface temps did.
For 8/07/19? Not a clue. Worldview is all clouds. SST's are only high on the Pacific side... where much of the junk ice is. Winds indicate compaction on the Pacific side and expansion from Greenland to Siberia.
I really don't know where the 110k came from except melt. Seeing the visible movement on the Atlantic side for expansion and the negligible movement on the Pacific side, but keeping in mind momentum... Let's weight it towards little stuff saying their goodbye's and call it...
-90k+/-10k.
On the positive side of things, 2019 did give up the lead to 2012 as predicted, and I hold, shakily, to the contention that that's it for 2019 in terms of a possible new minimum.
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Daily Changes Needed to Exceed 2012 low on Aug. 10.(Related to effect of GAC and it's import vs. 2019's melt cycle.)
8/10/2012 stood at 4.94M km sq.
2019 needs an average daily drop of > 142.5k km sq. for a record low on this post-GAC date. (4 days.)
This has become absurd. 2019 cannot meet 2012's low on Aug. 10. I'd put every cent I have on that. Four days over 142k? Yeah, right. I'll ride this horse to the end, but... just to follow through.
Daily Changes Needed to Exceed 2012 Record Low on Sept. 15. (Related to comparison of 2012 vs 2019's melt cycle.)
9/15/2012 stood at 3.18M km sq. on this date.
2019 needs an average daily drop of > 58.24k km sq. for a record Sept. low. (40 days)
Meh... still within the realm of possibility, but must fall by 38k per day by Sept. Don't hold your breath. Good thing I called 2nd behind 2012 back in July, along with many others.