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dnem

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #350 on: September 09, 2019, 06:22:52 PM »
Very provocative article in The New Yorker by the Jonathan Franzen:
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/cultural-comment/what-if-we-stopped-pretending?

Cultural Comment
What If We Stopped Pretending?
The climate apocalypse is coming. To prepare for it, we need to admit that we can’t prevent it.
By Jonathan Franzen
September 8, 2019

Franzen believes that while it may be theoretically possible to avoid climate apocalypse, the chances of actually avoiding it are vanishingly small.  This leads him to several interesting observations about what we should be doing.  Perhaps most provocatively he writes "All-out war on climate change made sense only as long as it was winnable." 

For example "Every billion dollars spent on high-speed trains ... is a billion not banked for disaster preparedness, reparations to inundated countries, or future humanitarian relief."  He argues that we should be thinking about how to delay calamity and how to respond to it, not "waste" resources on projects that cannot and will not accomplish the objective of "solving" the climate problem.




dnem

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Neven

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #352 on: September 09, 2019, 09:19:18 PM »
I've read both the article and the blowback, and the latter to me exemplifies left-wing denial that in some ways is even worse than the classic climate risk denial. I will dive some more into the blowback on Twitter to see if they actually address points made in the New Yorker article.

edit: Diving into the blowback reinforced my opinion. So many people who claim to accept AGW just don't get it.
« Last Edit: September 09, 2019, 09:32:24 PM by Neven »
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dnem

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #353 on: September 09, 2019, 09:34:38 PM »
I agree, Neven.  And if you hear any rebuttals of Franzen's piece, or really any statements about the fight against climate change that include any of the following, you are being sold the kind of "left-wing denial" that Neven calls out: "Not only must we fight climate change, but it will be GOOD for the economy," or "Fighting climate change will provide millions of great, high paying jobs," or other similar arguments.  Green New Deal, anyone?  This is exactly the wrong message.  We need to be striving for new ways of thinking about employment, success and life-satisfaction that are completely divorced from the production/consumption economy.  If we aren't having that discussion, we aren't talking about addressing the sustainability crisis.  Well, we aren't having that discussion, and I think this is why Franzen does not think we will meet the challenge.

bbr2314

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #354 on: September 09, 2019, 09:36:23 PM »
I've read both the article and the blowback, and the latter to me exemplifies left-wing denial that in some ways is even worse than the classic climate risk denial. I will dive some more into the blowback on Twitter to see if they actually address points made in the New Yorker article.

edit: Diving into the blowback reinforced my opinion. So many people who claim to accept AGW just don't get it.
The left-wing denial is worse because they say they are educated and look down on all the right-wing deniers in spite of their "privileged" position re: information / etc. It is the difference between simple and occasionally malevolent ignorance, and insufferable righteousness.

Neven

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #355 on: September 09, 2019, 10:07:21 PM »
Well, we aren't having that discussion, and I think this is why Franzen does not think we will meet the challenge.

Yes, ironically, the 'blowback' proves his point.

The left-wing denial is worse.

Yes, in some ways it is worse, because it is even more difficult to overcome than classic climate risk denial, but nothing tops the right-wing PR 'doubt is our product' industry.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #356 on: September 09, 2019, 10:53:02 PM »
The problem is that Franzen's piece (that I have read) will be taken up by the Heritage Foundation et al, and twisted and distorted by their tame "experts" e.g. Bjorn Lomberg, into the "The solutions are worse than the problem" denial paradigm.

Our loony right-wing will be so happy to pick up from a pseudo-scientist such a false story built from perverting the thoughts of a good man like Franzen, and many voters will swallow it. More obstacles in the way of practical steps such as getting rid of fossil fuel electricity and replacing it with cheaper electricity.

I agree with Franzen that really horrible times are coming (not just from Global Heating), and there will be some daft projects. But if they are stopped, does he really believe the capital will be spent on "prepping for collapse"? Not a damn chance, more like on projects accelerating BAU.

And when these horrible times come, those who have access to electricity from renewable energy (especially on the roof) will have a better chance of survival than those who do not.
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In a mid-latitude country like the UK, on-shore wind is the cheapest form of electric power generation, cheaper even than the most efficient coal or gas existing generators. Even Solar is cheaper than the asset life cost of generating electricity from new gas (or nuclear) power stations.

My excuse for a Government has banned new on-shore wind and is promoting furiously new nuclear.

It's economic policy? In 3 words - GDP growth (forever)
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DaveHitz

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #357 on: September 10, 2019, 12:48:30 AM »
Perhaps most provocatively he writes "All-out war on climate change made sense only as long as it was winnable." 

Here's my problem with this line of thinking. I do not think it's possible to "win" in the sense of avoiding climate change. Too much is already baked in.

However, with inaction it is possible to make things ever worse. Even if we've "lost" the war, we should still stop digging our hole deeper, faster.

dnem

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #358 on: September 10, 2019, 02:54:19 AM »
Did you read the piece, DH? I think Franzen would endorse both of your statements.

zizek

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #359 on: September 10, 2019, 05:02:13 AM »
I think some of you are confusing liberal denial with "left-wing denial".

Hefaistos

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #360 on: September 10, 2019, 05:15:30 AM »
Perhaps most provocatively he writes "All-out war on climate change made sense only as long as it was winnable." 

Here's my problem with this line of thinking. I do not think it's possible to "win" in the sense of avoiding climate change. Too much is already baked in.

However, with inaction it is possible to make things ever worse. Even if we've "lost" the war, we should still stop digging our hole deeper, faster.

After all, we don't know the time scale of climate change. But we know the time scale of history. We know what incredible achievements mankind has made in terms of fighting disease, poverty, etc. And all this has happened during 3-4 generations.
We know that technology is forewer developing. We know that some renewables are already cheaper than fossile fuels, and that trends are very promising for these technologies. We know that humanity is extremely adaptable to changing conditions.
The time scale of climate change, to achieve a state of equilibrium, is not 100's of years, it's 1000's of years. Bad things will undoubtebly happen to the next 3-4 generations, but the time scale is one magnitude larger, more like 30-40 generation.
There is as much hope today, as there was in the 1970's when we were all soon to be doomed by the Club of Rome modelling excercises.

nanning

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #361 on: September 10, 2019, 08:01:35 AM »
Thanks for your post Gerontocrat. I'd like to put a spotlight on your survival statement (not adressing you btw).
<snip>
And when these horrible times come, those who have access to electricity from renewable energy (especially on the roof) will have a better chance of survival than those who do not.


Indeed a horrible future.
I imagine the new normal situation where those with renewable energy and/or food will agressively defend their 'castle' and possessions while the majority who don't have any energy or food will be left to starve or fight and win.

Eternal competition in the evil fantasyworld of 'survival of the fittest'.

Cooperation doesn't seem to enter the minds of most people.
Our very basic strength as a social species doesn't seem to exist in consumerists' minds.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell

Neven

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #362 on: September 10, 2019, 10:04:05 AM »
I think some of you are confusing liberal denial with "left-wing denial".

That would be me. I just used a quick, general term for expediency.
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aperson

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #363 on: September 10, 2019, 10:31:37 AM »
I think some of you are confusing liberal denial with "left-wing denial".

This is an excellent and important distinction to clarify. The liberals want to maintain the status quo just as much as the denialists, they just have different tactics. It is important we don't use tactics that can be coopted by them when advocating environmental justice.
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MyACIsDying

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #364 on: September 10, 2019, 11:10:31 AM »
I still find this 'left-wing denial' attitude seen battled here by Frazer and recently by Zizek, a straw men. Who are they talking about specifically may I ask?

Politicians like AOC who vote yes for emergency children concentration camp funds after a tearful photo-op at such place?

Bernie Sanders? He'll turn red and shut over-production the fuck down as soon as he get's a chance. He's just navigating the precarious waters of domino theory induced anti-communist sentiment.

The voters? Again.. I don't recall any left-side-of-isle voter who believes the planet will be fine if we install enough renewables or that we'll remove all risks and current trajectory with a carbon tax. They all know that's first we need to fix the corruption if real changes are to happen. How that's supposed to happen doesn't hinge on our believe that we're doomed. It hinges on common sense. As in sense of the common.

So be careful with strawmen. It never helps make anything more clear. Perhaps Zizek's debate with Peterson got him to caught up in that world of echo chambers needing their hate posters.

Frazer just pisses me off having to read how there's no sense to do anything because you're foolish to think there's hope, but still go do exactly those things because there's some sense to them.. A small note about radical change meaning a downturn in production but then not provide any realistic suggestions. This stuff only serves to feed the reactionary drama machine and make scientists appear destitute.
« Last Edit: September 10, 2019, 11:42:32 AM by MyACIsDying »

Simon

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #365 on: September 10, 2019, 12:20:59 PM »
We need to source our primary energy in such a way that does not increase atmospheric CO2 levels. This is actually quite easy compared with mining coal, extracting oil and gas.

dnem

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #366 on: September 10, 2019, 01:23:19 PM »
A couple of points here.  The Democratic party in the US would be a centrist party in much of the world.  Warren regularly calls herself a "capitalist" and argues that fighting climate change will be good for the economy and create tons of great jobs. The Green New Deal sells itself as a jobs program.  Only Andrew Yang is talking about the future of work, which is one of the key issues facing humanity.  Bernie comes close to getting it (maybe), but with the balance of powers in the US Constitution and the current make up of the Supreme Court, no president could possibly create change at the scale that is required.

Just because renewables are "cheaper than coal" does not mean that we can transform the global energy system in anything remotely close to the needed timescale. The fossil fuel industry will fight for DECADES to amortize the sunk costs of its infrastructure and to avoid stranding its booked assets.

It is these socio-economic forces that makes Franzen pessimistic that humanity will rise to the challenge.  By all means fight them, but they are massive and tenacious.

And finally, Franzen is NOT saying "Give up and party 'cause the game is up." He is saying we need to think carefully about our priorities.  Taking the argument to its extreme, if a storm flooded New York and a million people were homeless and desperate should the government say "Hey, sorry, we're building solar farm and have no money to help you"?  That's (one of) the questions he asking.

MyACIsDying

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #367 on: September 10, 2019, 02:11:09 PM »
The Democractic party is not centrist. Hillary nuked socialism, as I mention AOC (the most leftist??) votes for children concentration camp emergency funding after a tea-session with Nancy Pelosi sharing her investment portfolio tips about the companies that profit of it.

The 2016 election showed that they don't even care about what little electoralism is left of Democracy in the US. It's a nepotistic party of anti-humanitarians who'd rather see the world burn so they don't have to take care of all the poor folks anymore.

Franzen re-prioritizes the same things we already know, while in the meantime providing fodder for all kinds of AGW denialists, Collapse fantasizers and most importantly the status quo to not really change anything, because he says right there it's extremely unlikely to happen.

What about some actual, realistic suggestions? If you want to highlight problems with the Green Deal, do so properly, I read this yesterday and makes for a lot saner perspective than this drama inviting provocation. https://www.marxist.com/marxism-vs-modern-monetary-theory-mmt.htm

Saying we can't afford solar panels because else we might miss funds to take care of people later is a completely useless and bs argument. How about taking care of both? And yes, also reducing productivity greatly. It's all possible if we stop being so obsessed about having to prove how other peoples ideologies are wrong. Just prove that yours is right.

NevB

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #368 on: September 10, 2019, 03:12:07 PM »
votes for children concentration camp emergency funding after a tea-session with Nancy Pelosi sharing her investment portfolio tips about the companies that profit of it.

I don't think these sort of comments are helpful or fair as there's no evidence for this, it's just conjecture that suits your bias. Wouldn't it be better to find what she actually said about the situation ?

As an outsider (Perth Australia) with no knowledge of the details I would imagine emergency funding would be kind of essential after locking the children up (which wasn't her doing) what's she supposed to do block funding and allow them to starve?

Is there any better reason with any evidence of why this happened ?

MyACIsDying

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #369 on: September 10, 2019, 03:46:52 PM »
votes for children concentration camp emergency funding after a tea-session with Nancy Pelosi sharing her investment portfolio tips about the companies that profit of it.

I don't think these sort of comments are helpful or fair as there's no evidence for this, it's just conjecture that suits your bias. Wouldn't it be better to find what she actually said about the situation ?

As an outsider (Perth Australia) with no knowledge of the details I would imagine emergency funding would be kind of essential after locking the children up (which wasn't her doing) what's she supposed to do block funding and allow them to starve?

Is there any better reason with any evidence of why this happened ?
Sometimes I get lost in trying to imagine the real world behind those political words. There's no reason to expect news will cover the majority of the horrific side of the establishment so I feel like I try to make sense in the best way I can. Don't get me started on Betsy deVos.

They cannot vote for such funding under the motto of providing better care. The taxpayer pays over $700 per night per child. https://www.gq.com/story/trump-detention-camps-cost
Trump hotels don't even charge that much.
Nancy does hold a lot investments. In companies linked to these firms, and that's what we know. https://gizmodo.com/turns-out-all-kinds-of-tech-companies-are-working-with-1827006046
A little far fetched maybe but in the end is all about creating demand for the companies you can pick.

AOC recently got rid of her good leftist political advisors and has since voted yes on a recent emergency funding addition of a few hundred million I cannot find back.. I looked at the house voting records. I can only imagine what happened and apologize for stating my conjecture as fact.

NevB

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #370 on: September 10, 2019, 03:50:24 PM »
votes for children concentration camp emergency funding after a tea-session with Nancy Pelosi sharing her investment portfolio tips about the companies that profit of it.

I don't think these sort of comments ......
Sometimes I get lost in trying to imagine the real world behind those political words. There's no reason to expect news will cover the majority of the horrific side of the establishment so I feel like I try to make sense in the best way I can. Don't get me started on Betsy deVos.

They cannot vote for such funding under the motto of providing better care. The taxpayer pays over $700 per night per child. https://www.gq.com/story/trump-detention-camps-cost
Trump hotels don't even charge that much.
Nancy does hold a lot investments. In companies linked to these firms, and that's what we know. https://gizmodo.com/turns-out-all-kinds-of-tech-companies-are-working-with-1827006046
A little far fetched maybe but in the end is all about creating demand for the companies you can pick.

AOC recently got rid of her good leftist political advisors and has since voted yes on a recent emergency funding addition of a few hundred million I cannot find back.. I looked at the house voting records. I can only imagine what happened and apologize for stating my conjecture as fact.

Thanks, that's I very decent of you.

blumenkraft

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #371 on: September 10, 2019, 03:55:01 PM »
Thanks, that's I very decent of you.

+1
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Bruce Steele

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #372 on: September 10, 2019, 04:18:53 PM »
I don't think a discussion about political parties gets us to a renewable infrastructure. It probably will just get us in a fight ,as usual. There has to be someone working their ass off somewhere who has either conquered or nearly conquered this challenge . Grow food, use renewable energy and transport options to get the job done. Every tool we need is already available but I have still not seen a working example. Well there are lots of primitive options but let's restrict ourselves to options that can scale to feeding billions of people.
 Maybe because I am a farmer and a fisherman I think food is key to any sustainability conversation.
Housing , heating or cooling, and transport all have to have their part but I think food production is where we are really falling down. Yes growing a garden and foraging can get someone through a collapse scenario but scaling those options won't get anywhere near enough food to sell and support a large village or city. 
 Money will buy the tools to accomplish a low carbon infrastructure but to really get to zero carbon you need to bury carbon also. There is just too much embodied energy in steel or batteries to get to zero carbon without sinking carbon and there currently isn't a way to sink carbon without proper farming techniques. . So again I think farming is the key although sail supported fishing also fits the bill or at least compliments a healthy zero carbon farm. 
 So we collectively spend billions on solar, wind and batteries but somehow farmers going broke or ways to fix our soils is the business of who ?
 This is NOT an impossible task. We are not doomed to failure although no existing political structure is prioritizing farming as the key . So we need a political structure that does and I assume after enough people get onboard politicians will figure out how to skim their profits . Skimming enough to pay their six figure pensions is the topic of another talk about priorities .
 
 

 
 

bluice

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #373 on: September 10, 2019, 04:59:37 PM »
David Wallace-Wells wrote something on the lines that we have technology to prevent CC just as we have the technology to prevent wars, crime and poverty. Yet they are all here because technology is not the difficult part.

We can like or dislike Franzen's opinion all we want, but the inconvenient truth remains that facts are pointing towards an incoming climate catastrophe. Despite all the hot air about dirt-cheap renewables and fancy electric vehicles we cannot even stop the growth of emissions, let alone reduce them to zero. Many, if not the most, nations and corporations aren't even trying. Let's face it fellas, it's not gonna happen.

I didn't read Franzen's article as a recommendation to party like it's 1999.  On the contrary, we should do everything in our power to soften the blow while at the same time prepare for it.
In PIOMAS we trust

Bruce Steele

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #374 on: September 10, 2019, 05:38:28 PM »
Blueice, To say " we have the technology to avoid cc "  is not the same thing as demonstrating the capabilities of existing infrastructures.
 To say " technology is not the difficult part " without offering up a single working example is weak beyond comment . Considering what's at stake we need more prepping, at least that is action and almost always involves some gardening.
 I happen I like the David Wells, Franzen , Gretta style of in your face comunication. I also think their message would be much stronger with real world examples of excellence. Who are our real leaders out there who can show us what we can individually do, what it will cost, and how to create a movement around success?  The one thing I am sure about is that money is not the limiting factor although profit may be.

nanning

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #375 on: September 10, 2019, 06:25:51 PM »
I'm with you Bruce, all the way but we differ on what we individually can do. For a start we could live like we did in the 50s. Less energy use. Less technology. More connected to others. More cooperation :). There's your 'prepping' best chance.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell

bluice

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #376 on: September 10, 2019, 06:37:27 PM »
Bruce, ”technology is not the difficult part” is counter argument to the technocrats and techno-utopians out there who think that once renewables are cheap enough and technology mature enough we can just sit back and wait for the emissions to fall. In reality however we are not lacking tech but people’s involvement and that’s why it’s important that someone like Greta shows us that emperor has no clothes.
In PIOMAS we trust

Shared Humanity

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #377 on: September 10, 2019, 07:59:13 PM »
Prepping for collapse is one approach. Working together to engineer a collapse that occurs more rapidly than the one we work to forestall is a better approach.

TerryM

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #378 on: September 10, 2019, 08:04:18 PM »
Prepping for collapse is one approach. Working together to engineer a collapse that occurs more rapidly than the one we work to forestall is a better approach.
Could you expand on this? It sounds counter intuitive.
Thanks
Terry

Shared Humanity

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #379 on: September 10, 2019, 08:24:34 PM »
Prepping for collapse is one approach. Working together to engineer a collapse that occurs more rapidly than the one we work to forestall is a better approach.
Could you expand on this? It sounds counter intuitive.
Thanks
Terry

BAU is driving us to collapse. Over the past 40 years, nothing has been done to derail us from behavior that is causing rapid increases in atmospheric CO2. This approaching collapse will be total; environmental, institutional, societal; an end to human civilization as we know it.

We need to engineer a collapse in the growth system that is driving us to the brink. This is simultaneously our only hope and terrifying. 2008 demonstrated just how fragile the worldwide financial system is. The engine that drives the system is consumers. Industry supplies what we demand. A fairly significant percentage of consumers need to decide to no longer participate in this dance with death, alter their consumption patterns to such an extent as to bring down the entire financial edifice, disaster capitalism if you will with the sole purpose of reinventing how we live.

I sometimes feel as if I am living in the Matrix movie.

bligh8

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #380 on: September 10, 2019, 09:06:57 PM »

"We need to engineer a collapse in the growth system that is driving us to the brink."

Stop burning natural gas .. all of it! There's your engineered collapse, let the cards fall where they
will.

"I sometimes feel as if I am living in the Matrix movie."

Did you take the red or blue pill, but a bit more serious....I'm with ya that one.

bligh 

philopek

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #381 on: September 10, 2019, 10:24:17 PM »
BAU is driving us to collapse.

Yeah and still most people, even here, promote BEVs and Batteries as solutions while they are not.

Batteries are just like covering old debts with new money in a ponzi scheme. Batteries are a workaround at best but far from being a solution and certainly part of one of the many next big problems.

We have to change our lifestyle radically and if we don't do it freely we shall end up with things forced upon us and once again only a few will be able to dodge those bullets.

This means that I agree 100% with your views but have to restrain myself a lot to stay put when reading through all the illusionary hypocrisy elsewhere where some guys really only ponder over
how to maintain the current lifestyle, a undertaking that is doomed like nothing else.

TerryM

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #382 on: September 10, 2019, 11:39:28 PM »
<snip>

BAU is driving us to collapse. Over the past 40 years, nothing has been done to derail us from behavior that is causing rapid increases in atmospheric CO2. This approaching collapse will be total; environmental, institutional, societal; an end to human civilization as we know it.

We need to engineer a collapse in the growth system that is driving us to the brink.
This is simultaneously our only hope and terrifying. 2008 demonstrated just how fragile the worldwide financial system is. The engine that drives the system is consumers. Industry supplies what we demand. A fairly significant percentage of consumers need to decide to no longer participate in this dance with death, alter their consumption patterns to such an extent as to bring down the entire financial edifice, disaster capitalism if you will with the sole purpose of reinventing how we live.

I sometimes feel as if I am living in the Matrix movie.
Thanks SH
I'm in total agreement with your 1st paragraph.


I don't understand yet why collapse now would be preferable to collapse then. Most of the damage that we can do has already been done. We might save a few forests by acting now, but these will probably be lost in the chaos of the collapse in either case.


I can't think of what benefits an "induced" collapse would bring to the survivors. Benefits that wouldn't be destroyed during the collapse itself.  I can imagine that if we were somehow able to push collapse back an extra decade or so, some might be better prepared than they are now to put in place systems that might survive.


If Bruce has additional decades to work on his sustainable farming experiment he might just succeed. If sidd's farm has more time to evolve, the results might increase the odds of survival for many. I don't want to continue naming specific individuals because I'll miss some that should have been included, but even in our tiny community there are many that are highly motivated to learn and teach others techniques that might mitigate some of the horrors the next generations will face.


I've no idea what their odds of success are, but anything that increases the time they have to work on these problems has to be a positive, doesn't it?
Terry


Bruce Steele

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #383 on: September 11, 2019, 01:41:33 AM »
Terry, I got into the global warming/ arctic ice melt discussion because I was early into research on the ocean acidification problem which quickly leads into the carbon cycle ( they are kinda the same thing ).
Ocean heating , atmospheric heating, ocean acidification, ocean hypoxia, and arctic melting are all tied together.
 To get the average surface ocean pH down to where we reach omega , about 7.8pH, and where
aragonite
( a common form of biological calcium carbonate ) begins to dissolve we need to dump ~ 5000 GT carbon into the atmosphere. So far we have dumped between 600 and 700 GT carbon.  Yes the permafrost will continue to melt and release methane and CO2 even after we stop our fossil fuel frenzy and we are already locked into additional greenhouse gas emissions but I don’t think the system is locked into 4300 GT of carbon yet. If I am wrong it’s already game over but I don’t feel like conceding
quite yet.
 We didn’t have solar or battery technology that might , just might , soften the blow one or two decades ago.We didn’t have today’s technology and efficiencies of solar power will improve as we move forward.
 No we can’t run BAU on solar but we can use it to improve survivability/ sustainability at least for a decade into the future... whenever the lights go out. It most certainly will power water wells, help with sanitation, refrigeration and as a result makes small agriculture more viable. Biodiesel isn’t that difficult either so we can power tractors far into the future. So if groups of people that have no idea how to feed themselves need a decade to learn it buys some time. If those of us motivated can prove up on low carbon farming and get the word out to whoever is interested it affords the possibility that there will be enough food around to get a larger number of agrarians through a bottleneck. If civilization falls hard the supply chains that keep equipment running will fail so most all technology will have a short timeline until a breakdown means we go back to beasts of burden. A decade or two allows some sort of planned retreat.
 I happen to believe civility and law of some form are preconditions to any orderly retreat . I don’t know how to prepare for civility if total chaos ensues. If chaos is our only way to save the vast biological heritage of earth then let lose the dogs but I am not sure chaos is inevitable or that all is lost yet. Where between 600 and 5000 GT we cross that line I am not sure and nobody else knows either.
If we are still talking about this as we cross 1000GT and our 2 degree thermal limit then maybe I will wish Shared Humanity managed to pull us down earlier.
 
 
 





ShortBrutishNasty

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #384 on: September 11, 2019, 03:49:46 AM »
Here is the obligatory two-part analysis for any article coming out of NYC or MSM:

1.  Is the author denying climate change? 

2.  If not, is the author denying urgency?

Franzen's little nugget (from Reply #350):

"We need to approach zero net emissions, globally, in the next three decades."

Transl.:  We have 30 more years to dick around.


« Last Edit: September 11, 2019, 04:02:40 AM by ShortBrutishNasty »

TerryM

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #385 on: September 11, 2019, 05:49:15 AM »
Bruce
Something I've seen here were 3 antique tractors that were engineered to run on just about any liquid that would burn. They were started using gasoline, then switched tanks to allow them to burn heating oil, kerosene, alcohol or just about anything else according to their proud owners.
I don't remember the manufacturer, (they may have been from Eastern Europe?). they were pre WWII and a distinguishing feature was the horizontal radiator that used heat being dissipated to suck fresh air through the radiator even when idling or operating a power takeoff. My guess is that they were using some modified version of a hot bulb engine.
Sorry I don't have any more information. I've been unable to find anything on the internet that looks like the three that I saw. I'll try to get more information if I see another at the fall fairs.


I'm mentioning this because if such a beast could be located and rebuilt it might prove it's worth when or if fuel supply lines are cut. Hot bulb engines weren't terribly efficient, but they were reliable and weren't fussy about what they burned.


Best of luck with the new batteries. :)
Terry

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #386 on: September 11, 2019, 06:09:14 AM »
"We need to approach zero net emissions, globally, in the next three decades."

Transl.:  We have 30 more years to dick around.

Net zero by 2050 is a joke.
I have amazing news for you. Man is not alone on this planet. He is part of a community, upon which he depends absolutely.
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nanning

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #387 on: September 11, 2019, 06:33:15 AM »
<snip>
BAU is driving us to collapse. Over the past 40 years, nothing has been done to derail us from behavior that is causing rapid increases in atmospheric CO2. This approaching collapse will be total; environmental, institutional, societal; an end to human civilization as we know it.

We need to engineer a collapse in the growth system that is driving us to the brink. This is simultaneously our only hope and terrifying. 2008 demonstrated just how fragile the worldwide financial system is. The engine that drives the system is consumers. Industry supplies what we demand. A fairly significant percentage of consumers need to decide to no longer participate in this dance with death, alter their consumption patterns to such an extent as to bring down the entire financial edifice, disaster capitalism if you will with the sole purpose of reinventing how we live.

I completely agree SH. This is what I've been thinking for some time.
De-growth is essential. It means stopping the growth. Doing away with the GDP 'metric'. Stopping profit. Stopping return-on-investment. Stopping the addiction to more more more.

As we are currently losing more and more of our political systems to commerce and rich people, and human rights are lost in the process. So using politics to bring about change in the growth system is a vanishing option.
Even China and Russia, having more powerful political systems, cannot go back. It is a race to the end (like the final moments after untying an inflated party-balloon).

What SH wrote is correct imo. Apart from the approaching uncontrolled collapse, the growth system stops only if enough of the consumerists stop. Enough of them to start influencing the rest through grouppressure and being a good example. Critical mass etc.
I am setting a good example; living amongst consumerists and having a very decent living. For everyone to see. Right in your face. But if it's only 1 person it won't work.

First step: break MSM and marketing. That is what's keeping consumerists in 'The Dream', otherwise known as 'The Apocalypse'.

How to wean people from the almighty TV and from constantly being inside (heated/airco'd home and car and office and shops).
Inside is the destructive dream. Outside is reality.

Question: How many hours/minutes per day on average are you outside, unprotected by enclosure and without smartphonescreen (=inside)?


edit: added shops
« Last Edit: September 11, 2019, 04:47:56 PM by nanning »
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell

nanning

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #388 on: September 11, 2019, 07:01:16 AM »
We need to source our primary energy in such a way that does not increase atmospheric CO2 levels. This is actually quite easy compared with mining coal, extracting oil and gas.

We(*) had it so easy with so much freedom, equality, diversity and intense shared experiences not so long ago. For the 'we' in the expanding conquering civilisation you have to go further back. 10000 years or so.
Civilisation went totally in the wrong direction. Control living nature by technological forces in stead of cooperating and living with nature. We have to revert to old ways of doing things. Retrace our steps, our wrong cultural choices.

(*) this "We" means all of humankind, not just civilisation. For example the Frisians lost it 2000 years ago, the North-American indiginous 'indians' lost it 400 years ago, the Australian aboriginals lost it some 250 years ago, the Amazonian indiginous 'indians' are losing it NOW.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell

ritter

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #389 on: September 11, 2019, 05:38:10 PM »
Prepping for collapse is one approach. Working together to engineer a collapse that occurs more rapidly than the one we work to forestall is a better approach.
Could you expand on this? It sounds counter intuitive.
Thanks
Terry

BAU is driving us to collapse. Over the past 40 years, nothing has been done to derail us from behavior that is causing rapid increases in atmospheric CO2. This approaching collapse will be total; environmental, institutional, societal; an end to human civilization as we know it.

We need to engineer a collapse in the growth system that is driving us to the brink. This is simultaneously our only hope and terrifying. 2008 demonstrated just how fragile the worldwide financial system is. The engine that drives the system is consumers. Industry supplies what we demand. A fairly significant percentage of consumers need to decide to no longer participate in this dance with death, alter their consumption patterns to such an extent as to bring down the entire financial edifice, disaster capitalism if you will with the sole purpose of reinventing how we live.

I sometimes feel as if I am living in the Matrix movie.

In some respects, the sooner collapse happens, the less destruction we will have wrought and the more resources will remain to transition to.... something else. It's a horrible thing to contemplate. Very interesting discussion going on.

dnem

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #390 on: September 11, 2019, 09:00:02 PM »
The Democractic party is not centrist. Hillary nuked socialism, as I mention AOC (the most leftist??) votes for children concentration camp emergency funding after a tea-session with Nancy Pelosi sharing her investment portfolio tips about the companies that profit of it.

T

My point about the US Democratic Party is that it is seen as "the left" here in the US.  Many, many Americans see Warren or Bernie as far too progressive.  My point was that in most other places the US Democratic Party would be seen for what it is, a center (or maybe center right) party. If you want a marxist revolution, fine, but the point is that politics are what they are and that is why Franzen doesn't think humanity is up to the task at hand.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #391 on: September 11, 2019, 09:18:57 PM »
When It Comes to the Future, Hope Is All There Is
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/09/jonathan-franzen-is-wrong-climate-change-demands-big-dreams.html
Quote
Franzen is not the first person to tell the left that its dreams are too lofty for the world. It’s a familiar enough argument, applied not just to the Green New Deal but to any left-wing bid to avert disaster in the making. Extreme wealth inequality, for example, lacks the specific timetable of ecological collapse, but it is a global problem that brings us closer to social breakdown as it worsens. There are solutions — radical ones, which would require governments to drastically reconsider their financial priorities — but the sensible classes in the U.S. and abroad dismiss them as frivolities. But rejection of the radical cures hasn’t led to bipartisan adoption of incremental policy. The notion of raising taxes on the rich to fund public services does not, in isolation, lay out the road to revolution, but that hasn’t prevented its critics from calling it an unworkable plan that would block the wealthy from creating jobs. The U.S. government hasn’t raised the federal minimum wage since 2009, but it’s taken years of organizing work for mainstream Democrats to concede that it may perhaps be time to raise it to $15 an hour. In Europe, centrists and conservatives alike sold austerity as pragmatism, and railed against welfare spending, despite clear evidence that cuts to public funding exacerbated poverty and widened inequality.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

dnem

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #392 on: September 11, 2019, 09:22:48 PM »
"We need to approach zero net emissions, globally, in the next three decades."

Transl.:  We have 30 more years to dick around.

Net zero by 2050 is a joke.

I don't get either of these comments.  Getting to net zero by 2050 will be a gargantuan task.  To say THAT will be "dicking around" shows a lack of understanding for the enormity of the problem facing us.  And KTB, are you saying it's a joke because we won't get there or because that isn't fast enough, or what?

Relevant anecdote.  I got an email yesterday from a friend linking to an article entitled "We Need More Startups That Don’t Prioritize Growth Above All Else," to which I replied "we need an entire economy that prioritizes degrowth above all else!"  Her response was "Then the global economy would crash!"  I would characterize her as environmentally conscious, deeply concerned about climate and generally "woke."  Definitely more so than 90 or 95% of other Americans.  That's what we're up against and what Franzen was recognizing.

dnem

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #393 on: September 11, 2019, 09:26:06 PM »
When It Comes to the Future, Hope Is All There Is
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/09/jonathan-franzen-is-wrong-climate-change-demands-big-dreams.html
Quote
Franzen is not the first person to tell the left that its dreams are too lofty for the world. It’s a familiar enough argument, applied not just to the Green New Deal but to any left-wing bid to avert disaster in the making. Extreme wealth inequality, for example, lacks the specific timetable of ecological collapse, but it is a global problem that brings us closer to social breakdown as it worsens. There are solutions — radical ones, which would require governments to drastically reconsider their financial priorities — but the sensible classes in the U.S. and abroad dismiss them as frivolities. But rejection of the radical cures hasn’t led to bipartisan adoption of incremental policy. The notion of raising taxes on the rich to fund public services does not, in isolation, lay out the road to revolution, but that hasn’t prevented its critics from calling it an unworkable plan that would block the wealthy from creating jobs. The U.S. government hasn’t raised the federal minimum wage since 2009, but it’s taken years of organizing work for mainstream Democrats to concede that it may perhaps be time to raise it to $15 an hour. In Europe, centrists and conservatives alike sold austerity as pragmatism, and railed against welfare spending, despite clear evidence that cuts to public funding exacerbated poverty and widened inequality.

Gah, another critic who apparently didn't even read the friggin' thing!:

"In this respect, any movement toward a more just and civil society can now be considered a meaningful climate action. Securing fair elections is a climate action. Combatting extreme wealth inequality is a climate action. Shutting down the hate machines on social media is a climate action. Instituting humane immigration policy, advocating for racial and gender equality, promoting respect for laws and their enforcement, supporting a free and independent press, ridding the country of assault weapons—these are all meaningful climate actions. To survive rising temperatures, every system, whether of the natural world or of the human world, will need to be as strong and healthy as we can make it."

Bruce Steele

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #394 on: September 11, 2019, 11:47:26 PM »
dnem, SBN I think means Franzen gives people the impression they have thirty more years before they need to act. A procrastination rationalization .
 And ktb implies that the governments that agree to zero by 2050 are pulling our leg, jerking us around, or maliciously baiting the public with promises they never will keep.

I find it ironic that the money the world collectively spends on weapons and wars could be rechanneled into building the green infrastructure we need . But apparently man ,in his wisdom ,would rather fund killing each other than try to save the biosphere.
So we will build the bombs and the war machine and neither mankind nor the biosphere will benefit.

SBN and ktb , Excuse in advance if I misinterpreted.

dnem

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #395 on: September 12, 2019, 12:14:30 AM »
Well, Franzen surely doesn't say we can wait 30 years to act, he says we only have 30 years to get to ZERO which is a huge task.  That would take a fat negative emissions growth rate, year after year after year.

I agree w KTB. The Paris pledges and beyond ain't worth the reams and reams of paper they're printed on.

And yes, if we all woke up tomorrow and agreed to get it done (end the war machine, for one), it is all totally possible.  Franzen simply says what he has seen of human nature makes him highly dubious we will.

Human Habitat Index

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #396 on: September 12, 2019, 02:15:12 AM »
How Petrodollars Affect The U.S. Dollar

After the collapse of the Bretton Woods gold standard in the early 1970s, the United States struck a deal with Saudi Arabia to standardize oil prices in dollar terms. Through this deal, the petrodollar system was born, along with a paradigm shift away from pegged exchanged rates and gold-backed currencies to non-backed, floating rate regimes.


The petrodollar system elevated the U.S. dollar to the world's reserve currency and, through this status, the United States enjoys persistent trade deficits and is a global economic hegemony. The petrodollar system also provides the United States’ financial markets with a source of liquidity and foreign capital inflows through petrodollar "recycling." However, an explanation of the effects of petrodollars on the U.S. dollar requires a brief synopsis of the history of the petrodollar.

History of the Petrodollar
Faced with mounting inflation, debt from the Vietnam War, extravagant domestic spending habits and a persistent balance of payments deficit, the Nixon administration decided to suddenly (and shockingly) end the convertibility of U.S. dollars into gold. In the wake of this “Nixon Shock,” the world saw the end of the gold era and a free fall of the U.S. dollar amidst soaring inflation. According to, Dr. Bessma Moomani in the article, " GCC Oil Exporters and the Future of the Dollar," through a series of carefully crafted bilateral agreements with Saudi Arabia beginning in 1974, the U.S. was able to promote bilateral political and commercial relations, market imported U.S. goods and services, and help recycle Saudi petrodollars

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/072915/how-petrodollars-affect-us-dollar.asp

Both Saddam Hussein and Gaddafi did propose that oil be traded in alternative currencies.

The US Dollar and oil are inextricably linked.
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance. That principle is contempt prior to investigation. - Herbert Spencer

ShortBrutishNasty

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #397 on: September 12, 2019, 04:45:21 AM »
@Bruce Steele:  No probs with your reading comprehension.  Thanks for being there. @ktp.  You, too.

For a long time, insidious Denial of Urgency articles ALWAYS had an expectation/statistic/measurement for the year 2100.

What year did Franzen use?  Huh?  What's his timetable?  When should we start to get concerned and panic??  When is our house really on fire??  (Hat tip Greta T.)




nanning

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #398 on: September 12, 2019, 05:29:37 AM »
<snip>
"In this respect, any movement toward a more just and civil society can now be considered a meaningful climate action. Securing fair elections is a climate action. Combatting extreme wealth inequality is a climate action. Shutting down the hate machines on social media is a climate action. Instituting humane immigration policy, advocating for racial and gender equality, promoting respect for laws and their enforcement, supporting a free and independent press, ridding the country of assault weapons—these are all meaningful climate actions. To survive rising temperatures, every system, whether of the natural world or of the human world, will need to be as strong and healthy as we can make it."

Great! Having high morality and acting upon it (ethics) is meaningful climate action  :D.

High morality such as taking other people into account; treat everyone with respect; be kind; have a very low carbon footprint; don't give in to temptation (buying stuff and candy, making everything easy on yourself); do not hurry; don't be rich; ride bicycle; share; pay compliments; don't care about 'status' etc.
Why aren't people doing that? What's the problem?
 ::)
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell

Ktb

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #399 on: September 12, 2019, 06:06:10 AM »
And KTB, are you saying it's a joke because we won't get there or because that isn't fast enough, or what?

And ktb implies that the governments that agree to zero by 2050 are pulling our leg, jerking us around, or maliciously baiting the public with promises they never will keep.

Mostly that net zero by 2050 is decades too late. And even if it was not too late, we probably will not achieve that goal anyway.
I have amazing news for you. Man is not alone on this planet. He is part of a community, upon which he depends absolutely.
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