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Aporia_filia

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #400 on: September 12, 2019, 12:35:52 PM »
I find specially easy to join Bruce opinions, maybe because I have been sailor, fisherman and farmer. Producing or procuring your own food is not that easy. Near where I live now there are some traditional families (with no children) living from ~20, ~25 caws who live on the mountains. The youngest is 58. They walk 5-20Km a day with hundreds of meters of unevenness,  just to start working.
I started worrying about the environment when I saw how industrial fishing totally deployed the Gulf of Cádiz from its wonderful biodiversity. Many years ago, before we saw the CO2 problem.
In this discussion the problem of overpopulation is undervalued. But it might be popping out as that "amoral" desire of having a quick Big Crash. I think that most of us considers population a problem. Some have stated that our farming only started after growing too much to keep being hunters/gathers.
We can not "morally" accept a cull on humans but our intuition is telling us that it's becoming a must. And that's why is not rare to will for a 'natural' wipe out.
That strange collective property of our minds, something emerging from the human's super organism is not identified by individuals but moves them to unconsciously create a state of war. Another intuitive possible outcome of our overuse of energy and resources.(obviously this is bs speculation, but the grass I was given in advance was terrific)
« Last Edit: September 13, 2019, 10:50:52 AM by Aporia_filia »

dnem

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #401 on: September 12, 2019, 01:08:05 PM »

What year did Franzen use?  Huh?  What's his timetable?  When should we start to get concerned and panic??  When is our house really on fire??  (Hat tip Greta T.)

40 years ago? Did you READ it?  Geez, he's being pilloried all over the internet for saying that there is no level of panic deep enough or soon enough to address our overlapping crises and you want more?  What the heck?  It is one of the most widely circulated and discussed essays on the impossibly dire straits that humanity is in.  That's why I posted it and why I was interested in starting a discussion about it here.

Archimid

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #402 on: September 12, 2019, 01:28:04 PM »
Work expands to fill the time available for its completion. Parkinson’s Law.

If we want to solve climate change by 2100, then work will expand to meet that deadline.
The same for 2050 or 2030.

There is of course a minimum time where it is theoretically possible to solve climate change. Our goals should be as close as possible to the minimum time.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #403 on: September 12, 2019, 03:47:46 PM »
And KTB, are you saying it's a joke because we won't get there or because that isn't fast enough, or what?

And ktb implies that the governments that agree to zero by 2050 are pulling our leg, jerking us around, or maliciously baiting the public with promises they never will keep.

Mostly that net zero by 2050 is decades too late. And even if it was not too late, we probably will not achieve that goal anyway.

Does not matter that it is too late. We still absolutely need to do this.

nanning

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #404 on: September 12, 2019, 03:49:33 PM »
I find specially easy to join Bruce opinions, maybe because I have been sailor, fisherman and farmer..

Sounds like an interesting life outside :).
Quote
Some have stated that our farming only started after growing too much to keep being hunters/gathers.

I don't think so, seeing all indiginous tribes prospering since our agricutural beginning, until they met civilisation.

Quote
We can not "morally" accept a cull on humans but our intuition is telling us that it's becoming a must. And that's why is not rare to will for a 'natural' wipe out.

I don't understand. I have no such intuition. A cull? Did you really mean to write that?
There's a cull planned in the U.K. for 10000's badgers. A wet dream for hunters. Most hunters are humans, a prey animal, pretending to be predators by using technology. Pushing buttons. Sorry for the off-topic part.

Quote
That strange collective property of our minds, something emerging from the human's super organism

In my opinion those ideas don't describe reality.


edit: added badger cull text
« Last Edit: September 12, 2019, 04:17:51 PM by nanning »
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #405 on: September 12, 2019, 04:55:50 PM »
predators can be prey. I saw a picture of an eagle eating a mongoose.
And just because we don't use fangs and claws to kill our prey does not mean we are not predators.
In fact, we are probably too much of a predator.
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nanning

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #406 on: September 12, 2019, 06:00:03 PM »
Look at our teeth and molars. We are not predators. Our eyes are in the front because we needed to catch the branch after leaping.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #407 on: September 12, 2019, 06:10:53 PM »
Are spiders predators? They don’t have canine teeth. We use utensils to cut food and cooking to soften it
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Aporia_filia

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #408 on: September 13, 2019, 11:29:05 AM »
Nanning, about the origins of agriculture this has been posted more than once:

Re: Is Man the "Unnatural Animal?"
« Reply #259 on: September 05, 2019, 02:29:25 PM »
Quote
This is an interesting study posted in the forum long ago.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/08/160802104526.htm
"University of Utah anthropologists counted the number of carbon-dated artifacts at archaeological sites and concluded that a population boom and scarce food explain why people in eastern North America domesticated plants for the first time on the continent about 5,000 years ago."

And Tom is right, we don't have very good teeth because we process our food, but humans are the most feared animals (there is at least one study I can't find now)) and without any doubt, we are the biggest murder  https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.psychologytoday.com/intl/blog/animal-emotions/201702/murder-she-didnt-write-why-can-only-humans-be-murdered&ved=2ahUKEwiAzP6du83kAhXQzYUKHctoDHoQFjAAegQIARAB&usg=AOvVaw2s8QNY_77ot_wxfNYBs858

About the cull. The word is used on porpoise because we do it sooo easily against animals as if they had not the same right to live as we do.
« Last Edit: September 13, 2019, 11:34:40 AM by Aporia_filia »

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #409 on: September 13, 2019, 02:21:02 PM »
I read somewhere that humans are second most murderous animals.
Meerkats came in first.
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kassy

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #410 on: September 13, 2019, 05:16:37 PM »
So that is why one of them is always on the lookout.  :o

Bet we win in absolute numbers.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

nanning

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #411 on: September 13, 2019, 06:39:03 PM »
A true predator would want to kill it's own food.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #412 on: September 13, 2019, 09:56:48 PM »
The controversy over Jonathan Franzen’s climate change opinions, explained
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/9/11/20857956/jonathan-franzen-climate-change-new-yorker
Quote
His apocalyptic rhetoric starts to sound like it’s sliding into a breed of denialism (or “de-nihilism,” as Mary Annaïse Heglar of the Natural Resources Defense Council dubbed it): the denial that there’s any sense in focusing on the fight for a better climate.
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dnem

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #413 on: September 14, 2019, 01:43:38 PM »
The essay has become an interesting litmus test. Personally, I think he will be proved right and it won't be because his little essay in an elite literature magazine made people give up when they would have won if only they had kept fighting. Also, whether intentional or not, Franzen has provoked a wide debate on the likely trajectory of climate change, and the best responses to it.  That can only be a good thing.

For me, the most salient point he makes is that fighting the good fight is a moral imperative, regardless of whether we are likely to win or lose.

nanning

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #414 on: September 15, 2019, 05:40:19 PM »
- Why has there been no success in eliminating tax havens?
- Why is the Keeling curve accelerating since the 2015 Paris accord?
- Why are there still massive subsidies given to fossil fuel related corporations?
(I could make this list much longer)

Please think about what these questions tell us about our leadership?
(hint: There's no meaningful effort at all, just make-belief and BAU)

Is really nothing big going to change? (Apart from the elimination of ecosystems and all other lifeforms, and receiving increasingly catastrophic weather)
How long is this going to go on?
In this way you are assured of collapse, almost working towards it in the most effective way.

I'd say supporting the current systems is very very stupid in this regard.
Very stupid to acquiesce with this destructive insane system that is responsible, and work towards your own lifestyle's quick end.

Please stop your bad behaviour. Please don't give in to ease, perceived 'comfort' and temptation; it is not the 'good life' you are sold, it is a destructive and by MSM/advertising conditioned 'dream'.
Why have a career? Just have a good and full and, yes, more difficult life. You'll get richer!
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

Ktb

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #415 on: September 16, 2019, 03:03:23 AM »
Here is why we will never reduce CO2 in time: I present the prisoner's dilemma. A classic game.

We have a multi person prisoner's dilemma in which any individual is pitted against the entire rest of the world. This prisoner's dilemma would hold true for the vast majority of people, i.e. if you replaced individual A with individual B from the "everybody else" section, this would still be true.

We look at the individual's preference ranking.

1st choice - Individual makes no, or minimal lifestyle changes. Individual does not attempt to reduce CO2 output. Individual makes no significant sacrifices. CO2 still reduced enough by rest of the world to avoid major consequences of CC.

2nd choice - Individual makes lifestyle changes to reduce CO2. Some lifestyle changes may cause discomfort. CO2 production by everybody else also decreases enough to avoid major consequences of CC.

3rd choice - Individual makes no, or minimal lifestyle changes. Individual does not attempt to reduce CO2 output. Individual makes no significant sacrifices. The rest of the world also does not reduce CO2 output. Climate change has severe and widespread impacts.

4th choice - Individual makes lifestyle changes to reduce CO2. Some lifestyle changes may cause discomfort. CO2 production by everybody else does not decrease by enough to avoid major consequences of climate change. Individual feels that he/she was played for a fool, made sacrifices for no reason.

Unfortunately, the dominant strategy here is for the individual to make no lifestyle changes. And indeed, we see that playing out with the vast majority of the general populace.
I have amazing news for you. Man is not alone on this planet. He is part of a community, upon which he depends absolutely.
- Ishmael

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #416 on: September 16, 2019, 05:30:02 PM »
Facing a possible Climate Apocalypse: How should we live? (commentary)
https://news.mongabay.com/2019/09/facing-a-possible-climate-apocalypse-how-should-we-live-commentary/
Quote
We live today under threat of Climate Apocalypse. But two world wars, genocides, the Bomb and untold suffering around the globe reported daily have all perhaps dulled our senses and our resolve; resulted in elders – especially our leaders – failing to face humanity’s ultimate existential crisis.
More than 30 years after the Climate Emergency was publicly declared by climatologist James Hansen, disasters multiply – record heat, drought, deluge, rising seas. But climate change deniers hold sway in the U.S. and abroad, with almost no nations on Earth on target to achieve their deeply inadequate Paris Agreement goals.
Now an even higher imperative has emerged, as new studies point not just to escalating risk, but toward potential doom. Understandingly, young people are angry and openly rebelling against their elders. The young point to a failure to act, and declare: there is no time for politics and business as usual. They’re right.
Humanity’s only way out – the path to saving civilization, and much of life on Earth – is to act as though our lives, and our children’s lives, depend on it. Because they do. And one more thing: we mustn’t give up hope. This post is a commentary. Views expressed are those of the author, not necessarily Mongabay.
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nanning

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #417 on: September 18, 2019, 05:10:20 PM »
There's a likely scenario where, after collapse of large infrastructure and/or food problems, the military and criminal organisations take over the country.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

TerryM

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #418 on: September 19, 2019, 12:22:22 AM »
There's a likely scenario where, after collapse of large infrastructure and/or food problems, the military and criminal organisations take over the country.
Take over from who?


Sounds more like an intramural scrimmage than an actual battle.
Terry

nanning

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #419 on: September 19, 2019, 06:11:21 AM »
Well, I was thinking that when the government has no working communication systems anymore, the military may step in to enforce 'order', food distribution and other logistics, using their own communication systems. To protect the rich people and shops/companies. Maybe I'm wrong in this and we will all start sharing food and energy and be nice to each other.

Criminal organisations may see their chance clear because they have weapons and a clear organisation in a country where the public don't have weapons. I don't know whether or not they'll still be able to communicate electronically. Probably not, but I think most criminals organisations are more concentrated, more local. ICE's will still have some fuel left.

I don't know which one is the worst to fear.
Battle may not be necessary to enforce 'order'/chaos. It may be wise to leave the country if possible.

In the U.S. where powerful weapons are everywhere, I expect more than a little battle.


P.S.  Terry, congratulations on becoming First-year ice. A select group :)
Thanks for all your well-informed opinions and clarity of view.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

TerryM

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #420 on: September 20, 2019, 02:13:09 AM »
Well, I was thinking that when the government has no working communication systems anymore, the military may step in to enforce 'order', food distribution and other logistics, using their own communication systems. To protect the rich people and shops/companies. Maybe I'm wrong in this and we will all start sharing food and energy and be nice to each other.

Criminal organisations may see their chance clear because they have weapons and a clear organisation in a country where the public don't have weapons. I don't know whether or not they'll still be able to communicate electronically. Probably not, but I think most criminals organisations are more concentrated, more local. ICE's will still have some fuel left.

I don't know which one is the worst to fear.
Battle may not be necessary to enforce 'order'/chaos. It may be wise to leave the country if possible.

In the U.S. where powerful weapons are everywhere, I expect more than a little battle.


P.S.  Terry, congratulations on becoming First-year ice. A select group :)
Thanks for all your well-informed opinions and clarity of view.
Thanks nanning - I had no idea I was approaching such a milestone of verbosity. :D


My comment was meant to indicate that there might not be too much difference between the coming "military and criminal organizations" and the militarized cops protecting the criminalized politicians that are our present overlords. :(


It gets ever more difficult to tell the good guys from the baddies.
Terry

wili

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #421 on: September 20, 2019, 02:32:19 AM »
"milestone of verbosity"

Terry, it's not just quantity...as you prove here, you, like our fearless leader, have the best words! :)
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #422 on: September 21, 2019, 01:18:04 AM »
How to talk to children and teens about their fears surrounding climate change
https://www.today.com/parents/how-talk-children-about-climate-change-t162981
Quote
Adults aren’t the only ones feeling anxiety over climate change.

Americans are worried as ever about climate change, separate Gallup polls reveal. However, climate grief and climate anxiety extends to children, Dr. Sudeepta Varma, a board-certified psychiatrist and clinical assistant professor of psychiatry at the NYU Langone Medical Center, told TODAY as part of NBC's series "Climate in Crisis."

"Teens are saying they're more worried about their climate anxiety than their homework," she said. So how can parents help relieve that stress? Here are four tips:
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TerryM

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #423 on: September 23, 2019, 01:46:08 PM »
Thanks Wili :-[
Terry

nanning

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #424 on: September 29, 2019, 06:50:01 AM »
The Rich people's behaviour:
When the hungry and thirsty arrive, you don't share but use guns to kill them.

---

  Sustainability expert Michael Mobbs: I’m leaving the city to prep for the apocalypse
 by Janine Israel

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/sep/29/sustainability-expert-michael-mobbs-im-leaving-the-city-to-prep-for-the-apocalypse

  Quotes:

The 69-year-old former environmental lawyer who, in 1996, converted his two-storey 19th century Sydney terrace into one of the world’s first inner-city self-sufficient homes, is selling his famous passion project and moving to a remote coastal location to prepare for what he predicts will be impending societal collapse induced by climate change.

That is, he says, a total breakdown within the next three to five years.

“My guess is water, energy, food, the seasons and economies will collapse in the next three to five years,” he says. “Am I certain of these things? No. But like someone diagnosed with a cancer expected to kill me in the next five years, I am now preparing for my personal circumstances over the next few years. The star I steer by is an article by Catherine Ingram, Facing Extinction.”

“I want to get away from the major cities because I think they’ll become unsafe. You look at what happens in places that get cyclones or tornadoes; when the food runs out and it’s hard to get power and water, civil unrest happens in about two or three days,” he says.

“People die without food and water in a week, and if there are a lot of people dying or at risk of dying, their behaviour will become uncontrollable.”

Still, he believes those in the city who are more self-sufficient, including the future occupants of this house, will have an advantage. “[But desperate people] will come here for the water and the energy,” he says, adding drily: “Maybe I should sell it with guns.

He said ‘I’m moving out of my Melbourne house and back to Bermagui.’ He said ‘Come to Bermagui. It’s got two wooden bridges which could be burned down should the town need defending.’ I thought, ‘This is my man!’”

The latest worst-case scenario projection from WaterNSW is that Warragamba Dam – Sydney’s primary water supply – will stop flowing by January 2022.


edit: bolded parts
« Last Edit: September 29, 2019, 03:22:07 PM by nanning »
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

gerontocrat

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #425 on: September 29, 2019, 07:16:20 PM »

Sustainability expert Michael Mobbs: I’m leaving the city to prep for the apocalypse[/size]


The guy has been prepping for collapse for over twenty years in the city.
He has abandoned hope for the city and moving out.

In fact he has abandoned hope for the survival of the modern Nation State, which is Urban-centred.

I always thought  prepping for collapse just meant practical steps for the survival of oneself, one's family, and if you're lucky a group of like-minded individuals, and not endless discussions (which is why I abandoned this thread).


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Alexander555

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #426 on: September 29, 2019, 08:00:41 PM »
If you are interested in guns. The Germans still manufacture nice pieces. They cost a little more, but very accurate.

vox_mundi

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #427 on: October 01, 2019, 05:45:21 PM »
New Zealand: Lifeboat to Save Humanity from Extinction in a Catastrophic Pandemic, Researchers Say
https://phys.org/news/2019-10-zealand-lifeboat-humanity-extinction-catastrophic.html

New Zealand, Australia and Iceland could act as island refuges to save humanity from extinction in the event of a catastrophic global pandemic, researchers have found.

The researchers, from the University of Otago, Wellington and Adapt Research, have ranked 20 island nations which could act as refuges from which large-scale technological society could be rebuilt. From this process, New Zealand came out second best.

Their work has just been published as a research paper in the international journal Risk Analysis.

Quote
... "Discoveries in biotechnology could see a genetically-engineered pandemic threaten the survival of our species. Though carriers of disease can easily circumvent land borders, a closed self-sufficient island could harbor an isolated, technologically-adept population that could repopulate the earth following a disaster." ... "It's like an insurance policy. You hope that you never need to use it, but if disaster strikes, then the strategy needs to have been in place ahead of time."

The researchers ranked island nations with populations of more than 250,000 as possible refuges, considering that the larger the population, the more likely it was that the refuge would ultimately be able to reboot global civilization.

The researchers say that for such a strategy to succeed, preparations must be made ahead of time. They suggest that New Zealand consider investing in resiliency measures and rehearse the rapid introduction of border controls.

Matt Boyd et al. The Prioritization of Island Nations as Refuges from Extreme Pandemics, Risk Analysis (2019)



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Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

nanning

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #428 on: October 01, 2019, 05:55:32 PM »
Thanks vox.

New Zealand: Lifeboat to Save Humanity from Extinction in a Catastrophic Pandemic, Researchers Say
<snip>
They suggest that New Zealand consider investing in resiliency measures and rehearse the rapid introduction of border controls.

A lifeboat with very high sides. Only for helicopter people.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

kassy

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #429 on: October 01, 2019, 06:46:41 PM »
And for a not very realistic scenario. It´s not like we ever got close to that in any pandemic.

With the Black Death you see interesting shifts in society (labor becomes more scarce so people earn more and lots of ´male jobs´ were done by women until there were enough men to push them out again) but there is no collapse.

All the extinction events were planet wide calamities so there is no island lifeboat.

There is just one planet lifeboat.

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #430 on: October 03, 2019, 10:29:20 PM »
I posted a thread on this, but in case you ignored it it would also fit here.
If you expect a collapse, but for a fragment of humanity to survive, donate a test to the Memory of Mankind:
https://www.memory-of-mankind.com/
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The most durable data carriers (in the form of ceramic tablets), stored deep in the oldest salt mine in the world will carry our stories hundreds of thousand of years into the future.

Everyone can participate within drawing this portrait of our era: You can contribute a personal story, your favorite poem, or newspaper articles which describe our problems, visions or our daily life.

To give everyone on the globe the chance (regardless of origin or income) to contribute to MOM, the storing of texts in this archive is free of charge.

You can also support MOM with funds or purchase your personal tablet with texts and images combined (and receive a duplicate which you can pass on to your own offspring!)
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Human Habitat Index

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #431 on: October 04, 2019, 02:01:30 AM »
And for a not very realistic scenario. It´s not like we ever got close to that in any pandemic.

With the Black Death you see interesting shifts in society (labor becomes more scarce so people earn more and lots of ´male jobs´ were done by women until there were enough men to push them out again) but there is no collapse.

All the extinction events were planet wide calamities so there is no island lifeboat.

There is just one planet lifeboat.

Was the Black Death caused by climate change induced famine ?

"Now, new research using a unique combination of ice-core data and written historical records indicates that the cool, wet weather blamed for the northern European famine actually affected a much wider area over a much longer period. The work, which researchers say is preliminary, paints a picture of a deep, prolonged food shortage in the years leading to the Black Death.

“The evidence indicates that the famine was a broader phenomenon, geographically and chronologically,” said Alexander More, a postdoctoral fellow in the Harvard History Department and a lecturer in the History of Science Department.

A widespread famine that weakened the population over decades could help explain the Black Death’s particularly high mortality. Over four or five years after arriving in Europe in 1347, the pandemic surged through the continent in waves that killed millions.

The ice-core data is part of a unique program linking traditional historical research with scientific data-collecting techniques. The program, called the Initiative for the Science of the Human Past at Harvard (SoHP), is headed by Michael McCormick, the Francis Goelet Professor of Medieval History. SoHP’s ice-core project is being conducted in collaboration with the University of Maine’s Climate Change Institute and researchers at Heidelberg University. The project’s approach puts it at the juncture of environmental science, archaeology, and history. It is supported by the Arcadia Fund of London."

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2016/01/did-famine-worsen-the-black-death/

Climate change, not Global Warming caused the Black Death (bubonic plague) that killed an estimated 75 million people, or 1/3 of the Western Christian Civilization in Europe.
A study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in January of 2008 details the research of Anthropologists Sharon N. DeWitte and James W. Wood.
They examined the human remains of a Black Death cemetery in London and compared them with remains from cemeteries in Denmark, where the Black Death did not affect the local population.
The results were this:

Black Death killed more people who were starved of essential nutrients and already suffering from disease then it did well fed and healthy persons.
Why were they starved of essential nutrients and already suffering from disease?
Because the Medieval Warming Period, which ended around the year 1300, enabled abundant crops over much of Europe for hundreds of years. This continual abundance of food then created a population boom. The milder winters and longer growing seasons resulted in smaller amounts of environmental stress on the European peoples. As a result, by the year 1300 most of Europe’s people’s were well fed and generally healthy.


Then came the Great Famine of 1315–1322, the direct result of the cooling of the European climate, usually called the Little Ice Age. It started with three years of torrential rains beginning in 1315.The bad weather of the spring of 1315 resulted in crop failures over most of Europe and lasted until the summer of 1317.The unstable weather lasted in Europe until the 19th century and was characterized by severe winters and no or very short growing seasons.

When did the Black Death ravage Europe? From the years 1347 to 1351.

It doesn’t take a college degree to figure the natural chain of events caused by the Climate Change of 1300 to 1322.

The so called “Global Warming” of the Medieval Warming Period sparked the greatest boom in prosperity and health of the last 1,000 years in Europe. The climate change resulting in the Little Ice Age caused massive death and misery.

When people of the first half of the 1300's became starved, their immunity to common infections dropped, that combined with improper sanitation,lack of clean water and environmental stress set the stage for the Black Death.

https://earthsciencesus.blogspot.com/2008/01/black-death-and-climate-change.html
« Last Edit: October 04, 2019, 02:19:08 AM by Human Habitat Index »
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance. That principle is contempt prior to investigation. - Herbert Spencer

PragmaticAntithesis

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #432 on: October 06, 2019, 04:10:01 PM »
I think one way people could get around the military problem could be to go out to sea. If one can take their sustainable environment and put it on a boat, they won't have to worry about being attacked. After all, if the ship sinks, no-one gets the resources. Why would anyone want to sail over megametres of ocean just to get nothing? As long as Noah's Ark can sustain about 3x as many people as it starts out with (remember that your population will grow over time!) and can outlast land-based militaries, it will eventually be able to land in an uninhabited area and establish a beachhead colony.

Water isn't a problem, the ship can just boil and distil the sea.

Power isn't a problem, the ship has wind and solar.

Food can be grown as long as it's protected from the salt.

Typhoons (and other extreme weather) can be dodged by physically moving the ship out of the way!

The only real problem is that building the ship will be a huge undertaking, and will only be able to sustain so many people, so this is really only an option for the rich. Still less ridiculous than building something on Mars, though!
A single seed in the right place can sprout an entire forest.

Wherestheice

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #433 on: July 29, 2020, 05:48:21 AM »
Not sure if anyone has read this article, or the one by vice, or even the study that these articles refer too, but thought this should be shared

TDLR: Scientists give us a 90% chance of collapsing in the next 2-4 decades..

https://futurism.com/the-byte/physicists-90-percent-chance-civilization-collapse
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Neven

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #434 on: July 29, 2020, 10:31:26 AM »
I'd say chances are already 25% right now if COVID-19 continues to get hyped the way it has been so far. And it probably will, as Trump is still in the WH.
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The Walrus

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #435 on: July 29, 2020, 04:23:46 PM »
Not sure if anyone has read this article, or the one by vice, or even the study that these articles refer too, but thought this should be shared

TDLR: Scientists give us a 90% chance of collapsing in the next 2-4 decades..

https://futurism.com/the-byte/physicists-90-percent-chance-civilization-collapse

That paper pins global collapse to the loss of global forests, which they claim will occur between 100 and 200 years.  Yet, over the entire course of human civilization, scientists have estimated that less than 50% of the trees have been cut down.

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14967?proof=true

That paper claiming the demise of the forests also states that the rate of deforestation has declined.  Another paper using satellite imagery has shown that forested area has actually grown over 35 years.

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14967?proof=true

glennbuck

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #436 on: July 31, 2020, 10:51:43 PM »
Over the past year more scientists have spoken candidly about the implications for humanity of recent climate observations and research. They have begun to warn more clearly of the potential and even likelihood of societal collapse due to the direct and indirect impacts of dangerous climate change. These warnings are being lost in the winds of news cycles and drowned out by scientists who prefer assessments that are less challenging to humanity and our elites. Therefore, in one place, here are some of the latest interpretations of the science from scientists who do not hold back.

Dr. Graham Turner was formerly a senior scientist with an Australian federal government agency responsible for scientific research (CSIRO). He told Asher that: “There’s an extremely strong case that we may be in the early stages of a collapse right at the moment. Vested interests and corrupt politicians combined with a population happy to deny problems overwhelm those that are trying to promulgate truth and facts.” Dr. Anitra Nelson, a principal fellow at the University of Melbourne concurred: “I do actually think we’re already into the collapse and it’s just likely to get worse and more quickly worse as we go.”

https://jembendell.com/2020/06/15/climate-science-and-collapse-warnings-lost-in-the-wind/#more-1963

https://jembendell.com/2019/07/31/climate-scientist-speaks-about-letting-down-humanity-and-what-to-do-about-it/
« Last Edit: July 31, 2020, 11:28:59 PM by glennbuck »

interstitial

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #437 on: July 31, 2020, 11:51:07 PM »
Not sure if anyone has read this article, or the one by vice, or even the study that these articles refer too, but thought this should be shared

TDLR: Scientists give us a 90% chance of collapsing in the next 2-4 decades..

https://futurism.com/the-byte/physicists-90-percent-chance-civilization-collapse

That paper pins global collapse to the loss of global forests, which they claim will occur between 100 and 200 years.  Yet, over the entire course of human civilization, scientists have estimated that less than 50% of the trees have been cut down.

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14967?proof=true

That paper claiming the demise of the forests also states that the rate of deforestation has declined.  Another paper using satellite imagery has shown that forested area has actually grown over 35 years.

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14967?proof=true

Misrepresenting the facts as always. The article says that the number of living trees has fallen by 46%. Your statement implies otherwise. 

Bruce Steele

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #438 on: August 01, 2020, 12:35:48 AM »
Glenbuck, Deep adaptation. Really can’t have a foot in two worlds IMO. If it’s over we are just talking something like trying to judge market tops and bottoms if we are waiting for the perfect moment to disengage.
 

KiwiGriff

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #439 on: August 01, 2020, 01:23:44 AM »
Quote
That paper pins global collapse to the loss of global forests, which they claim will occur between 100 and 200 years.  Yet, over the entire course of human civilization, scientists have estimated that less than 50% of the trees have been cut down.
logic error.
non sequitur.
Ecological collapse is not the same thing as cutting down trees.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-could-climate-change-and-deforestation-spark-amazon-dieback



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Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
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The Walrus

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #440 on: August 01, 2020, 02:58:14 PM »
Quote
That paper pins global collapse to the loss of global forests, which they claim will occur between 100 and 200 years.  Yet, over the entire course of human civilization, scientists have estimated that less than 50% of the trees have been cut down.
logic error.
non sequitur.
Ecological collapse is not the same thing as cutting down trees.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-could-climate-change-and-deforestation-spark-amazon-dieback


Read further.  The authors state that “recent research hints that the Amazon forest may be more resilient to climate change.”  “It not seems that climate change is unlikely to be as damaging as we originally feared, and “most models show increasing forest cover due to CO2 fertilisation.”

KiwiGriff

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #441 on: August 01, 2020, 04:50:09 PM »
Bullshit cherry picking yet again .

Quote
The Amazon rainforest sustains its own climate by recycling water to the atmosphere, which maintains rainfall and reduces the length of dry seasons. Deforestation undermines those regulatory mechanisms and may, ultimately, lead to a tipping point.

This, in combination with the dry season becoming long enough to permit regular natural fires, could see the forest transition to a permanent savannah. This would be characterised by a mixed tree and grassland system with an open canopy that allows the soil to become much hotter and drier, as well as store much less carbon.

Therefore, the twin pressures of deforestation and climate change on the Amazon rainforest remain a great concern. We are unlikely to know the vulnerability of the rainforest to climate change with any confidence until it is too late. However, we are sure that human-caused deforestation reduces the resilience of the forest to climate change and other stressors.

Many had thought the problem of Amazonian deforestation was on the path to being solved. The rate of deforestation dropped from a peak in 2004 of 28,000 square kilometres (km2) – equivalent to removing an area of forest almost the size of Belgium each year – to less than a fifth of that rate by 2014.

But that is all in the past now. With deforestation on the up and global warming continuing, there are, once again, multiple threats to the longevity of the Amazon rainforest.

In NZ there was once extensive forest cover on the east-coast of the south island '.
Early Maori  hunting the Moa burnt it  circa 1.200 to 1.400 CE.
now?
Repeated burning and resulting loss of tree cover changed the climate so much it has never recovered and the land is now  Tussock grassland .
Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
Robert Heinlein.

kassy

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #442 on: August 01, 2020, 05:00:50 PM »
Well resilience against climate change is not going to help the Amazon if they keep converting it to soy farms and building roads. But since i like good news do share some details from the paper.

And it not just about cutting forests. The temperature range keeps shifting which means a lot of forests will get into trouble.

The canopy counting alone is problematic because it does not differentiate between forests. The loss of old growth forests has an oversized influence on carbon loss and then there is the much less visible loss of all varieties of life. 

Counting methods have been updated since 2015 and quite a bit more happened after that so one could ask how relevant these papers are since they are both from 2015.

Then again getting forest measurements is not the most important thing for those prepping for collapse (just mentioning that since it is the thread title  ;) ).
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

KiwiGriff

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #443 on: August 01, 2020, 05:14:25 PM »
It is another point on the time line toward collapse and also a feedback when all that carbon in mature rain forest gets released.
I find one somewhat nearer according to the IPCC more concerning. The loss of coral reefs and resulting loss  of commercial fish species that are dependent on them for part of their life cycles.

Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
Robert Heinlein.

The Walrus

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #444 on: August 01, 2020, 05:39:50 PM »
see 2 posts up

Yes, their conclusion was that clear cutting the forest would do more harm than could be compensated naturally.  <In the future you will need to back up these claims with actual quotes from the articles, TIA! kassy>

I know Kiwi calls this cherry picking bullshit, but that is the conclusions they reached.  It is not often that researchers retract previous statements, so I applaud the authors for doing so.

<But did they? And if they had why not provide a quote for extra glee? kassy>
« Last Edit: August 01, 2020, 05:57:17 PM by kassy »

glennbuck

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #445 on: August 02, 2020, 07:11:06 PM »
Living in the Time of Dying

Living in the Time of Dying Documentary 53:51

If we accepted the climate science was true, how would we choose to live and what would matter to us? This is my journey exploring these topics.  Interviews with: Author of " Deep Adaptation" Professor Jem Bendell, Dharma teacher and author of "Facing Extinction "Catherine Ingram, journalist and author of "The End of Ice" Dhar Jamail and Elder, teacher , author and Citizen of the Chiricuhua Apache Nation, Stan Rushworth.

https://www.livinginthetimeofdying.com/documentary?fbclid=IwAR3TUozlFJOaH4F0--R6Wixm_Bcuzxe-c7zCLKoEhjX6oyAwxNEBBl0i3oo