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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #200 on: July 20, 2019, 06:24:07 AM »
Earth Abides is a book that has much influenced my outlook on survival. (I first read it as a young teen at my older brother's urging.)  From wikipedia:
Quote
Earth Abides is a 1949 post-apocalyptic science fiction novel by American writer George R. Stewart. It tells the story of the fall of civilization from deadly disease and its rebirth. The story was set in the United States in the 1940s in Berkeley, California and told by a character, Isherwood Williams, who emerges from isolation in the mountains to find almost everyone dead.

Earth Abides won the inaugural International Fantasy Award in 1951. It was included in Locus Magazine's list of best All Time Science Fiction in 1987 and 1998[2] and was a nominee to be entered into the Prometheus Hall of Fame.[3]
Many of the scenarios in the book wouldn't work today, but the idea of societal transition feels robust.  Something like: First generation survivors will use solar panels, crossbows and clothing from stores.  Second generation survivors can read books.  Third generation survivors will have their myths about how things work.  Our prep work is to make possible 2nd and 3rd generations.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Tunnelforce9

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #201 on: July 20, 2019, 08:06:59 AM »
AshesAshes has a great episode on prepping and the coming collapse :

Quote
Episode 77 - Coping With Collapse
Awareness of the systemic threats to our world comes at a cost. Often, that cost includes feelings of isolation, existential dread, depression, shock, and other uncomfortable realities. But these emotions do not define the final stage of our journeys. This week we read from listener emails, each describing a different point along the path of coming to terms with uncomfortable truths, and from these we learn that there is a way to move forward. Through confronting the denial that our society wants us to consume, pushing past hopelessness, and expressing our grief, we can begin to reconnect with other humans, build communities, "prep" for the future, and build a better world together.

https://ashesashes.org/blog/episode-77-coping-with-collapse

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #202 on: July 20, 2019, 08:25:09 AM »
Heat pumps are so inefficient from +9C that resistant heat is actually a better choice!


Things especially technology changes with time. Efficiency ratings on new pumps is superior down to about -4 C or so depending on the specific model purchased. Further new heat pumps have resistance heaters built in for when the difference between outdoor and indoor temperatures is too much for providing all of your heat with the heat pump. The resistance heater supplements the heat pump so it is still more efficient than strait resistance heating. If you live in a cold climate using ground as a source is far more efficient and four or 5 feet underground temperatures don't change much from season to season.


For prepping everything but biofuel will be unfixable soon after collapse.

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #203 on: July 20, 2019, 08:31:48 AM »
I just looked online the first heat pump I looked at the inexpensive one from a big box store was rated down to 5F or -15C.

Tunnelforce9

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #204 on: July 20, 2019, 08:48:50 AM »
One of the things you want to check is the noise levels, cheap models are notoriously loud.
Another thing you need to keep in mind is that you'll need floor heating and very good isolation in your home.

One way you can check if your home is properly isolated is to put your heater on at 55C (if you have a central heater you can change water temp settings to 55C) and check if your house is warming properly, this is because the heat from the pump is around 55C

oren

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #205 on: July 20, 2019, 09:22:12 AM »
Very good post Terry.
People have survived in forest environments in cold northern climates and will do so again, despite the leftovers of the collapsing civilization - eroded topsoil, armed marauders and pillagers, meltdown radiation, forest fires as the flora adapts itself to the changing climate, etc., which is why I think humans will not go extinct post-collapse.

TerryM

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #206 on: July 20, 2019, 09:23:06 AM »
Earth Abides is a book that has much influenced my outlook on survival. (I first read it as a young teen at my older brother's urging.)  From wikipedia:
Quote
Earth Abides is a 1949 post-apocalyptic science fiction novel by American writer George R. Stewart. It tells the story of the fall of civilization from deadly disease and its rebirth. The story was set in the United States in the 1940s in Berkeley, California and told by a character, Isherwood Williams, who emerges from isolation in the mountains to find almost everyone dead.

Earth Abides won the inaugural International Fantasy Award in 1951. It was included in Locus Magazine's list of best All Time Science Fiction in 1987 and 1998[2] and was a nominee to be entered into the Prometheus Hall of Fame.[3]
Many of the scenarios in the book wouldn't work today, but the idea of societal transition feels robust.  Something like: First generation survivors will use solar panels, crossbows and clothing from stores.  Second generation survivors can read books.  Third generation survivors will have their myths about how things work.  Our prep work is to make possible 2nd and 3rd generations.

What a concise synopsis!
Terry

sidd

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #207 on: July 20, 2019, 09:48:04 AM »
Re: "everything but biofuel will be unfixable"

wait, what ?

solar hot water is even easier than biofuell, solar furnace is harder but doable.
thermoelectric is not too difficult.
windpower on small scale (say 1500watts) is doable

look at some of these sites

https://otherpower.com/

https://www.notechmagazine.com/category/obsolete-technology

https://solar.lowtechmagazine.com/obsolete-technology.html

sidd


sidd

TerryM

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #208 on: July 20, 2019, 06:28:53 PM »
sidd


It you ever get around to poking about in Death Valley, Scotty's Castle has a solar hot water/heating system that had been installed in the 1930s and was viable the last time I was by.
Brazed 1/2" copper lines with a 3/4" header above and below covered with a single pane of glass.
100% gravity feed for hot water and old fashioned radiators to heat the building during nights in the winter.


Not the most efficient system, but if you've plenty of copper tubing, glass and land who gives a damn about efficiency.


Death Valley Scotty was quite the character, the Musk of his age. ;)
Terry

sidd

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #209 on: July 20, 2019, 08:34:55 PM »
Solar hot water is so easy that i am always surprised that it is not much more frequently used. I know of several installs because I make it a point to suggest and help install. But the rate of utilization is still very low. Now these days, the cost of factory manufactured PV has dropped so much that heat from resistance heaters powered by PV is actually cheaper than from evacuated tube solar heat collectors. But for DIY, lo tech solar hot water is still the best.

I know of a couple four season greenhouse operators who use exclusively solar for heat, even in midwest winter. Hang the panels vertical facing south so snow drops off, and overbuild so they have to dump heat or shade, or turn off some collectors in summer. Few thousand gallon insulated water tanks for storage suppling hydronic heated  concrete slabs. Keeps going even in extended weeks long winter overcast. It's surprising how much heat you can collect even on winter overcast days.

Keeping livestock warm is another application. The barn cats love it too, make a little nest on top of the storage tanks, and some of the chickens flutter up there sometimes. (No, the cats dont kill the chickens ... actually the roosters put more of a beating on the cats than vice versa.)

I use solar for some process heat and preheat, saves a bunch of fuel consumption. I know of a some other farmers doing the same. This year one of them is running solar heated air thru his compost pile and another is experimenting with predrying oilseed in a similar way. 

sidd

philopek

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #210 on: July 20, 2019, 09:19:32 PM »
Solar hot water is so easy that i am always surprised that it is not much more frequently used.

True, while there are places, especially in the middle east, including if not especially in Israel, where "felt" most homes/houses have such an installation + reservoir on the roofs.

I personally prefer solar panels and a small marine wind turbine (not so noisy) because water and its weight on the roof is not something that makes me feel comfortable.

Last but not least, liquid system can/do leak from time to time and that's something that costs perhaps in times where money is sparse?

This is not meant to value one or another solution, it's just about personal preference.

oren

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #211 on: July 20, 2019, 09:59:20 PM »
In Israel rooftop solar water heating is mandated by law since 1976 with some exceptions, and ~85% of residential buildings are equipped with such systems.

TerryM

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #212 on: July 20, 2019, 11:03:32 PM »
In Israel rooftop solar water heating is mandated by law since 1976 with some exceptions, and ~85% of residential buildings are equipped with such systems.
That's a very reasonable regulation!
(It's nice to think nice thoughts about the Israeli Government) ::)


Are "swamp coolers" at least promoted by the government? They cut summer power use to a fraction of that used by ACs, and will cool a building to very close to wet bulb temperatures.


sidd
I've adjusted the controls on a large So. Utah home that was both heated and cooled by a fairly narrow (15 ft.) greenhouse attached to the southern wall of the house.
They used growing grape vines outside to restrict the sun in summer.
In Winter the doors & windows were opened, then in summer the heated air was directed through the attic to vents on the far side & make up air filled the house from an opened basement door.
Add a small swamp cooler and it stayed comfy all year.


Terry

oren

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #213 on: July 20, 2019, 11:16:05 PM »
Terry, TBH it's not the current government that set this mandate, though this one deserves credit for setting aggressive goals for solar PV deployment (while taking the country in an unthinkable direction).
In the Israeli south there is use of "desert coolers", basically a fan and water injection system that outputs very cold air at little energy cost.

TerryM

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #214 on: July 21, 2019, 12:04:58 AM »
oren


A swamp cooler simply keeps pads damp as a central fan blows the chilled air into the building. More complicated versions use a heat exchanger to recycle the home's air through the chilled air in the cooler itself.
In the pre-electric days in the Mojave Desert small hand filled units were used as refrigerators that would keep your beer cool. 8)



Are you living in one of the more arid regions?


If so you might want to investigate reverse chimney designs. No fans, simply a very small water pump to return any unused water to the top of the chimney.


I've enjoyed these in Arizona, Nevada and So. Utah. EZ to build and maintain, they will bring a large area to just above wet bulb temperature if that is desired, and wet bulb temperatures in the desert will usually leave you shivering.


Other than the small pump there are no moving parts and they're most effective when most needed.


I'm sure the internet has examples.
Terry

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #215 on: July 21, 2019, 01:31:55 AM »
I understand that swamp coolers use a lot of water, and in arid places, added photovoltaic panels for extra electricity makes more sense than lowering the water table (or trucking in extra water).
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TerryM

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #216 on: July 21, 2019, 02:17:57 AM »
I understand that swamp coolers use a lot of water, and in arid places, added photovoltaic panels for extra electricity makes more sense than lowering the water table (or trucking in extra water).
Tor
They do use water, but not a great deal. A 1/8 inch copper supply tube is commonly used, and I've never seen or heard of one that went dry. Possibly a gallon/hr?


Some PV panels to spin the fan and pump the water (or a windmill if the water table isn't too low) will work better than many additional panels straining to keep an AC compressor pumping at the high pressures needed on a very hot day. It's these days that tear the guts out of an AC system, particularly air/air systems.


Remember that the water doesn't need to be potable for this use. The old Mojave refrigerators only held 1 quart at a time and were refilled 3 or 4 times a day. They had no capability for recycling any of the water and would keep milk from spoiling using straw filled burlap as "pads".


Just keeping yourself hydrated in the desert requires lots of potable water. If there's no reliable water source where you're at it's best to keep moving. We used to haul in 10 gallons/person/day and always ended up with more than we needed.


Gatorade 50/50 at ambient temperature was the preferred drink. :)


A double walled tent rigged with a 12 inch reverse chimney requires 5 gallons on gravity fed water/day. You won't catch cold inside, but it's a nice relief after a few hours in the sun. - That was in Death Valley in spring or fall.
Terry

oren

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #217 on: July 21, 2019, 07:58:52 AM »
oren

A swamp cooler simply keeps pads damp as a central fan blows the chilled air into the building. More complicated versions use a heat exchanger to recycle the home's air through the chilled air in the cooler itself.

Are you living in one of the more arid regions?
Turns out swamp cooler and desert cooler are different names for a similar device.

I live in Tel Aviv, one of the relatively saner parts of the country, but with an extremely humid summer climate, where if you lack A/C you're as good as dead. I recall the desert cooler from childhood visits to Eilat, Israel's southernmost city and a baking oven.

TerryM

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #218 on: July 21, 2019, 08:35:12 AM »

Turns out swamp cooler and desert cooler are different names for a similar device.

I live in Tel Aviv, one of the relatively saner parts of the country, but with an extremely humid summer climate, where if you lack A/C you're as good as dead. I recall the desert cooler from childhood visits to Eilat, Israel's southernmost city and a baking oven.


Different names for the same device is certainly a possibility, in fact "desert cooler" makes much more sense since a swamp cooler certainly won't work in a swamp.


Regions that couple high heat with high humidity require AC today, and are liable to be unlivable in the not too distant future.


Keep your AC serviced, change the filter monthly & hope that the power stays on. :(


Best of luck with your election.
Terry


sidd

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #219 on: July 21, 2019, 09:54:49 AM »

Aporia_filia

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #220 on: July 21, 2019, 02:59:52 PM »
Thank you Oren, very much appreciate you.
Thank you Sidd, that kind of knowledge that you share is something I love. Were you the one from whom I have this link?:

http://digital.library.upenn.edu/women/buffalo/garden/garden.html

Thaks also Terry, reducing our consumption should be a must.

nanning

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #221 on: July 21, 2019, 06:23:18 PM »
Is 'collapse' meant only in human civilisation context?
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly"

gerontocrat

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #222 on: July 21, 2019, 06:35:55 PM »
Is 'collapse' meant only in human civilisation context?
It could mean the joke's on us.

"collapse of stout party". It is said to be the punchline of a certain kind of ponderous and verbose joke that’s characteristic of the nineteenth century. It signals that the victim has realised he has been bested and is wilting in embarrassment and chagrin.

Nature won, we lost.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

wili

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #223 on: July 21, 2019, 08:11:34 PM »
Well, this precious bit of nature does not seem to have 'won,' nor have thousands of others, and millions more soon to similar disappear:

https://www.facebook.com/SESDTU/photos/a.2872085269483943/3593414087351054/?type=3&theater
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

sidd

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #224 on: July 21, 2019, 08:39:25 PM »
Re: Buffalo Bird Woman's Garden

I have posted a link to that before, it is a wonderful book. But I am sure others have also.

sidd

TerryM

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #225 on: July 22, 2019, 02:55:36 AM »
Thank you Oren, very much appreciate you.
Thank you Sidd, that kind of knowledge that you share is something I love. Were you the one from whom I have this link?:

http://digital.library.upenn.edu/women/buffalo/garden/garden.html

Thaks also Terry, reducing our consumption should be a must.
Thanks for the nod!


When the grid fails reducing consumption becomes a survival strategy, rather than an act of charity.
Climate refugees will eat their way through whatever stands in the way of feeding their young. Those defending what they see as theirs will resort to scorched earth policies to keep the invaders at bay, while marauders attempt to starve out the defenders.


Its happened many times before, just not at this scale. Joining Gerontocrat's Irregulars might be a better strategy than defending sidd or Bruce's bucolic communes?
Do we stop the downward spiral at the walled city stage, the tribal stage or the isolated family within a nebulous clan stage? Damned if I know. Damned if I know how to nudge the odds to favor an outlook that I'd prefer.


Staying alive is liable to become a full time job for much of the next generation. Perhaps the best we can do is to acquire, horde and diffuse knowledge. It's the only thing that Gerontocrat's minions can't steal.


Terry

sidd

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #226 on: July 22, 2019, 05:58:08 AM »
Re:  sidd or Bruce's bucolic communes

heeheehee

far from bucolic.

whatcha gonna do, seize the grain elevators ? thats what the government will do b4 you.

Gonna cruise the back roads looking for livestock and grain silos ? good luck with that

Cool, now you  few found a few hundred pigs in a barn, or a few thousand chickens,  whatcha gonna do with them ? You got slaughter faclities  and refrigeration ?

Mebbe you grabbed a reefer trailer fulla eggs. You gonna live off them ?

So you and a few buddies with weapons seize a few houses and rape all the women and kill all the men.

What next ? You know how to milk the cows ? You know where the chickens roost ? you know which silage is next in feeding mix ? You know to move the trailer at the top of the hill with the guinea hens ? You know which wells have sulfur in the water and which ones dont ?

You and your buddies will be dead before the first winter is done. Partly because the whole neighbourhood will have firearms trained on you and  trees and bridges down to stop you.  And they know the land much better than you.

Remember, everyone owns a firearm or more in dem dere hollers.

sidd

TerryM

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #227 on: July 22, 2019, 08:31:21 AM »
Whoa-Ha Pardner


I wouldn't last a month without the grid, and one thing I'm totally ignorant about is military matters. I'm barely of value in this iteration of society, and few "communes" have the resources to support an enfeebled old man.
The last only time they put me in charge of "Security" I forced all my muscle bound minions to wear polka dot vests, causing all but one to quit in disgust. I assigned him to the door and the weekend was a delight. Ha-Ha Mission accomplished!


It won't be me that sweeps down from the hills, nor those like me. We'll have been gone for sometime before things get bad. Few communities will be able to afford a high maintenance, guru despising wise ass who spends most of his time explaining to others why their ideas just won't work.


Hell, I don't understand why my present crowd puts up with me. I've ended so many's foolish dreams of "getting rich quick" by popping their half baked balloons that it's a wonder they don't mob the exits when I appear.


Terry

Aporia_filia

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #228 on: July 22, 2019, 01:05:52 PM »
"Staying alive is liable to become a full time job for much of the next generation. Perhaps the best we can do is to acquire, horde and diffuse knowledge. It's the only thing that Gerontocrat's minions can't steal."

I'm with that Terry, and if we want to think of Geron's minions, remember that only "guerra de guerrillas", since the Roman Empire and before, has been the only way to frustrate regular armies, as Sidd suggests.

philopek

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #229 on: July 22, 2019, 08:39:21 PM »
Another nice topic to discuss that will certainly lead to heated debate ;)

Let's assume that all negative feedbacks and consequences come true and our civilization is getting under serious pressure and danger to be vastly decimate but not extinct;

What exactly would global warming AKA man made climate change destroy???

IMO it will destroy the cause for itself, the so called civilization with all it's excesses!

And now the question that many won't like and that will hurt those who think that we humans
are important in an universal context and that we are the crown of creation.

I think that self-importance (the human race as a whole) is a huge part of the root-evil that brought
as where we are today.

Is that such a bad outlook if this sick system finally is doomed is flushed down the toilet ?

Interested to see feedback. Also if someone finds it interesting enough to open a separate thread, i won't. I'm more interest to know my companions in this forum and this i can learn from replies to such provocative questions that finally implies sanctioning of mass-extinction of a majority.

And before someone jumps to high, this is what is predicted in the holy bible, not that i believe every word in that book, but i just want to remind the too exited that this is the verdict of the god(s) many of us believe in.

be cause

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #230 on: July 22, 2019, 08:59:14 PM »
the inner explorations I have done have shown me there is only one of us , appearing in all our billions of guises . Not best to wish a large part of yourself dead . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

philopek

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #231 on: July 22, 2019, 10:37:01 PM »
the inner explorations I have done have shown me there is only one of us , appearing in all our billions of guises . Not best to wish a large part of yourself dead . b.c.

Back to self-importance, many people were ready to die what they thought is a valuable cause.

I love life but won't cry the day i'm going on eternal holiday ;)

Don't get me wrong, i got your point and it's valid, just not mine. I believe that
each of us should learn an do our best but that we're indeed not even a dust-particle and very unimportant accordingly.

That means, if we don't exist nothing will change with the greater fate of the universe, not even our planet that will evaporate in around 2.5 Billion years anyways.

I think not holistic like whole body, whole humanity or hole earth but hole universe and we're just a blink of the size of a quark or even smaller in that context.

Result of this is one becomes able to smile about our poor attempts to make ourselves more important than other nothings and to make sure that this doesn't sound wrong, "Us" means all of us, just in various fields a different scales but nevertheless.

I often tell my grand-kids, admit your failure but don't be angry, neither with you nor with others while the latter is my most frequent fail.

Thanks for your feedback, very much appreciated.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2019, 01:43:19 AM by philopek »

be cause

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #232 on: July 22, 2019, 10:42:07 PM »
dust and yet the divine children of god .. gods ourselves .. Have I not said , ye are all gods ?
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

philopek

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #233 on: July 23, 2019, 01:44:30 AM »
dust and yet the divine children of god .. gods ourselves .. Have I not said , ye are all gods ?

I read you ;)

just corrected the whole/hole errors thanks to Tor B. who made me aware


sidd

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #234 on: July 23, 2019, 07:00:56 AM »
Re: "won't be me that sweeps down from the hills"

Now that's funny.  I had a conversation sorta like that with a member of the 0.01% (USA) wealth class.

First, some background,  older guy who grows potatoes and makes potato chips. I helped set him up with his own oilseed growin and crushing operation for oil for his potato chips The reason he is in that wealth bracket is that his land is next to some very, very valuable housing real estate, and developers have been beggin him to sell for decades. Last offer i heard was 140e6 USD, probably more now. But he don't need the money, been rich all his life, and he wants to keep making potato chips forawhile.  He's on the local council, so he blocks attempts to zone or tax him out, but his kids are gone and he knows that whoever inherits the property and the operation will sell out. That dont bother him too much. I reproduce the conversation as I recall.

He was telling me about the 0.1 % living in the lo class neighbourhood on one side of him who were complaining about the noise from choppers of the .01 %  on the other side. So i look at him and go, "Dude, you're in the 0.01 %"

He grinned and went, "Ya but I hate the choppers too. But I got animals that spook." Then he looked me in the eye and went, "Sidd, I know when you boys come down from the hills, I'll be one of the first against the wall or strung up a pole.  "

I said "You really think that's gonna happen ?"

He replied: "I'm amazed it hasn't already. We rich folk ran outta foreign parts to loot, it's getting too expensive, so now for forty year, we been looting the rural states and poor and lower middle class. It's coming. I might see it before I'm dead." He's over 80 years old, but in very good shape, could probably work me to the ground trying to keep up with him.

That guy believes that armed revolution is gonna happen, probably led by rural communities. But he ain't hunkering down, he ain't building no safe spaces or bunkers. He says when we come for him, he'll drink a shot and eat a bullet.

sidd





DrTskoul

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #235 on: July 23, 2019, 11:20:51 AM »
 He is 80 after all..

Aporia_filia

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #236 on: July 23, 2019, 12:54:09 PM »
As I see it, god is a narcotic idea that gives comfort and security in front of the unknown, relief pain, ease future views,...it has also been used to domesticate people, to strengthen tribalism,...
It obviously has an evil side on it.
But, are there any thing intrinsically good or bad??? It all depends on the position of the observer.
And the observer/observed would be responding to their genes/environment.
How is not just pure hubris and a proof of being our creation that god is always humanoid???
The way humanity behaves as a species is more like Icarus, not because of an ill evil self-importance. I'm sure the rest of living creatures do also have a lot of self-importance, they just are not as corrosive to the environment as we are.
I'm afraid that as a species, we behave like a cancer. All body resources redirected to drive our crazy exponential growth, cutting communication with the body we were born. That's way I think we need evolution to give us a nudge

philopek

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #237 on: July 23, 2019, 01:43:24 PM »

That guy believes that armed revolution is gonna happen, probably led by rural communities. But he ain't hunkering down, he ain't building no safe spaces or bunkers. He says when we come for him, he'll drink a shot and eat a bullet.

sidd

That is so certain that i would rather use the term "knows" instead of "believes"

This is one of the few things i'm totally sure about it. BTW at age 12 I once predicted the downfall of the USSR and guess what the echo was.

This kind of development is so 100% logical and at times i compare the underlaying laws of social movements with "laws of physics"

Like laws of physics it can't really be discussed, what has to happen will happen.

BTW "they" know it's coming, they already start to deprive the average citizens of their
chance to get to save heavens.

I. They reduce cash to whatever minimum they can get away with, Sweden is in the lead AFAIK
(but there you also need kind of written consent to be save from charges after making love)

II. The limit the use of cash-purchases, in Spain it's down to 1'500€ and above that is fined

III. They restrict purchases of precious metal physically to a fraction in value, Germany down to
2'000€ coming form 10'000 coming from 15'000€. Applies to cash purchased but then that means
all gold owners of relevance are know by name and once gold prohibition would be implied again
it will be easy.

IV. They steal the hard earned and taxed savings from most people with small savings by cutting
interest rates down to below inflation rate.

This list can be continued and currency reforms are waiting for those with cash savings etc. etc.

My only concern are my family because I'm quite done with any illusions but the younger are still
dreaming full of optimism, naivety and idealism and it's a difficult task to warn them in a way to not spoil there youth and let them have their good time.

TerryM

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #238 on: July 23, 2019, 03:50:59 PM »
philo
I don't think there will be any large uprising until we lose the grid. We made it through the 30's and the 60's.


Were you 12 when The Third Wave was published? Toffler not only predicted the end of the Soviet Union, he followed that with a prediction that the US would follow.
Terry

nanning

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #239 on: July 23, 2019, 06:50:12 PM »
About time (the USA follows). So many USA inhabitants are not living the 'American Dream'. It's getting worse all the time.

edit: @philopek Great post in my opinion.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly"

philopek

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #240 on: July 23, 2019, 07:58:13 PM »
philo
I don't think there will be any large uprising until we lose the grid. We made it through the 30's and the 60's.


Were you 12 when The Third Wave was published? Toffler not only predicted the end of the Soviet Union, he followed that with a prediction that the US would follow.
Terry

In 1980 i was 30 years old but did not read "Toffler's" wave theories.

The U.S. IS following at this very moment, only that it will take time to hit the bottom. The process is ongoing and will reach the bottom in about 170 years from now, self-evidently with many ups and downs and a lot of hiding of the true state of the Union ;)

Also we have to distinguish between the loss of sustainability or profitability or growth if someone prefers that term and the political downfall as a Country.

The later will take the longest due to accumulation of wealth as well due to a  huge advantage in military power for which it will take years until it's weakened to a point that will matter (make the country vulnerable to be toppled)

I agree about the uprisings happening once we lost the grid but who tells you that it will not be soon ;) ;) ;) :D :D :D

I expect that within the next 2-18 years, now it depends whether that is soon for you, for me this is soon, especially if i look at my grandchildren of age 7-19, they will be in the middle of everything during that time frame.

If you have reason for a later happening, I'm very interested to hear new input on the matter.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2019, 08:04:05 PM by philopek »

Shared Humanity

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #241 on: July 23, 2019, 10:26:37 PM »
I find it interesting that this thread goes from the technical merits of heat pumps to the philosophical need to recognize ones mortality.

The latter is better prep for the collapse IMHO.

DaveHitz

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #242 on: July 24, 2019, 04:44:47 AM »
What exactly would global warming AKA man made climate change destroy???

...

Is that such a bad outlook if this sick system finally is doomed is flushed down the toilet?

I don't mourn the "sick system" being flushed. I mourn all of the knowledge that will be lost. I love the idea that there is intelligence in the universe seeking to understand the universe. It's possible that there are other intelligent species in the universe, but it's also possible that there aren't. Fermi's equation has too many unknowns. Lots and lots of suitable planets! But what are the barriers to creation of intelligence and to its long term survival? I'm pretty confident that the universe is full of bacteria. Not sure at all about intelligence.

If I knew there were other smart entities out there, I would care less about our own loss. I don't even care if it is humans who survive or our AI/Robot "descendants." As a person, I am comfortable with the idea of death and happy that I have a daughter who will succeed me. I'm willing to take that same view about the human species.

Here's hoping that our AI/Robot descendants can handle warm temperatures.

nanning

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #243 on: July 24, 2019, 07:18:13 AM »
@DaveHitz
So we (techno 'civilisation') can continue our imaginary supremacy over all other lifeforms indefinitely?
So we go on techno killing and destroying, by pushing buttons, and never have to learn? No limits eh?

It's almost as if people see technology as magic. Intelligence is not the same as technological !
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly"

TerryM

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #244 on: July 24, 2019, 01:36:28 PM »

In 1980 i was 30 years old but did not read "Toffler's" wave theories.
Toffler considered the 1st Wave to have been the Agricultural "Wave" marked by the change from the hunter/gatherers of the Paleolithic to the farmers and herding cultures that marked the Neolithic.
His second Wave was the coming of the industrial era. He used the proliferation of steam power following Watts as the birth of this "wave"
The Third Wave he saw as the Post-Industrial or Information Era, a "wave" that began with the computer that cracked the German Enigma codes and the televisions that soon became the technology that brought change into every's living room, yurt or village.
Quote
The U.S. IS following at this very moment, only that it will take time to hit the bottom. The process is ongoing and will reach the bottom in about 170 years from now, self-evidently with many ups and downs and a lot of hiding of the true state of the Union ;)
Toffler believed that 'Information Overload" would end all the empires that the Industrial Era had favored, that ready access to information would allow the have nots to glimpse not just the lifestyles of the "rich and famous", but will also allow them to recognize that the favored were in no way superior by way of morality, intellect, race, nationality or ability.
He saw revolution and the devolution of centralized power as our near future and a rebirth of City States where individualized needs can more easily be met as a longer term outcome. Standardization, the heart and soul of the Industrial Age would no longer suffice. One size fits all was never a good fit.
The US surviving for 170 years of BAU seems improbable to me, even if AGW were not taken into consideration.
Quote
Also we have to distinguish between the loss of sustainability or profitability or growth if someone prefers that term and the political downfall as a Country.

The later will take the longest due to accumulation of wealth as well due to a  huge advantage in military power for which it will take years until it's weakened to a point that will matter (make the country vulnerable to be toppled)
Quote
I've only been considering the political stability of the country. Some of the fabulously wealthy oligarch's hoards will sustain their heirs as long as money or it's equivalent holds some value.
Does the military follow orders when their families aren't being fed? Do the police defend property rights when their paychecks can't be cashed?
I agree about the uprisings happening once we lost the grid but who tells you that it will not be soon ;) ;) ;) :D :D :D

I expect that within the next 2-18 years, now it depends whether that is soon for you, for me this is soon, especially if i look at my grandchildren of age 7-19, they will be in the middle of everything during that time frame.

If you have reason for a later happening, I'm very interested to hear new input on the matter.
New input is a very high bar.
I can only extrapolate from the limited information I've had access to. History offers little from the viewpoint of the vanquished. Futurists like Toffler need to be read while bearing in mind the environment that they were experiencing when they were writing.


I think that regardless of present leadership the US will be forced to bow to the world's concerns over AGW. Whether militarily or economically America, and other entities that see global warming as a hoax will be forced to make good on their Paris pledges.
That will buy us some time.


Most of the more optimistic predictions stumble when they call for the magical/technological removal of GHG's from the atmosphere. That ain't happening - or at least it won't happen at the scale needed.


The grid won't be down in two years baring a very large nuclear war. The grid may fail in small isolated regions, but this isn't the unique catastrophe we're discussing.
18 years, again baring massive global conflict, is too early primarily because of the huge and redundant resources that can and will be expended in efforts to continue BAU. If the US were to lose the power from sea shore nuclear power plants due to sudden sea level rise rationing would allow us decades to build out enough gas, solar or windfarms to take their place.


The Soviet Empire died suddenly, but within a decade the Russian Federation had risen in it's stead.
If the US, the EU or even China were to fail politically or economically, the built up infrastructure would be patched together well enough to sustain some form of government, some form of economy, something close to BAU that would exist for decades or generations.


Alexandria slipped beneath the sea, but Egyptians moved to higher ground and are still extant.
Santorini exploded and peoples about the Mediterranean were decimated. A massive catastrophe that destroyed governments, altered weather and destroyed at least one culture. It's history survives in some of our most highly regarded mythologies.
What we're contemplating is something that dwarfs Santorini. What do we expect within 18 years that would equal that level of disruption?


It will come. It will be unimaginably damaging, but it won't occur suddenly nor without warning.


An island nation will sink. A crop failure will cause another Serbia, and another. Millions will die from heat exposure, more millions will be climate refugees. After all of these events have taken place. After international trade is curtailed. After localized wars for water, for food and for cooler lands the collapse will begin and the grid will fail.


We've yet to face the inundation of the first island nation. The grid will be extant for more than 18 years. :)


Please forgive both the pedantic nature and tome like size of this post. I'll attempt more succinct replies in the future. :-\
Terry

philopek

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #245 on: July 24, 2019, 02:54:33 PM »

your input


I keep it short:

1. Thanks

2. New input was meant new to me, hence the task is obviously way lower ;)

3. I do not say that the U.S. will survive in their current state or even close to it for 170.
I think you overlooked or didn't consider the full meaning of "BOTTOM". If i say the bottom i mean the bottom and that is way lower a level that most countries are, they are mostly in between.

But those are only small semantic variations, i got your message, mostly agree and again thank you for taking the time to share your takes and thoughts with us.

BTW for me, TLTR does not exist while "Too Short To Convey The Full Message" does and is state of the art most of the times.

TerryM

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #246 on: July 24, 2019, 03:33:48 PM »
Thanks, but I recognized I was getting way too verbose long before I posted.


The wife says that if you ask me the time I'm liable to tell you how to build a clock. :-[
Terry


kassy

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #247 on: July 24, 2019, 03:40:39 PM »
Well if they listen and understand and build a clock they would never ask again.
It is possibly efficient.  8)
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

philopek

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #248 on: July 24, 2019, 03:43:29 PM »
Thanks, but I recognized I was getting way too verbose long before I posted.


The wife says that if you ask me the time I'm liable to tell you how to build a clock. :-[
Terry

But that's my defect, ok I'm willing to share a bit :D :D

nanning

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Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #249 on: July 29, 2019, 08:38:33 AM »
The rich people prepping:
(From the Guardian)
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly"