In 1980 i was 30 years old but did not read "Toffler's" wave theories.
Toffler considered the 1st Wave to have been the Agricultural "Wave" marked by the change from the hunter/gatherers of the Paleolithic to the farmers and herding cultures that marked the Neolithic.His second Wave was the coming of the industrial era. He used the proliferation of steam power following Watts as the birth of this "wave"The Third Wave he saw as the Post-Industrial or Information Era, a "wave" that began with the computer that cracked the German Enigma codes and the televisions that soon became the technology that brought change into every's living room, yurt or village.
The U.S. IS following at this very moment, only that it will take time to hit the bottom. The process is ongoing and will reach the bottom in about 170 years from now, self-evidently with many ups and downs and a lot of hiding of the true state of the Union
Toffler believed that 'Information Overload" would end all the empires that the Industrial Era had favored, that ready access to information would allow the have nots to glimpse not just the lifestyles of the "rich and famous", but will also allow them to recognize that the favored were in no way superior by way of morality, intellect, race, nationality or ability.He saw revolution and the devolution of centralized power as our near future and a rebirth of City States where individualized needs can more easily be met as a longer term outcome. Standardization, the heart and soul of the Industrial Age would no longer suffice. One size fits all was never a good fit.The US surviving for 170 years of BAU seems improbable to me, even if AGW were not taken into consideration.Also we have to distinguish between the loss of sustainability or profitability or growth if someone prefers that term and the political downfall as a Country.
The later will take the longest due to accumulation of wealth as well due to a huge advantage in military power for which it will take years until it's weakened to a point that will matter (make the country vulnerable to be toppled)
I've only been considering the political stability of the country. Some of the fabulously wealthy oligarch's hoards will sustain their heirs as long as money or it's equivalent holds some value.
Does the military follow orders when their families aren't being fed? Do the police defend property rights when their paychecks can't be cashed?
I agree about the uprisings happening once we lost the grid but who tells you that it will not be soon
I expect that within the next 2-18 years, now it depends whether that is soon for you, for me this is soon, especially if i look at my grandchildren of age 7-19, they will be in the middle of everything during that time frame.
If you have reason for a later happening, I'm very interested to hear new input on the matter.
New input is a
very high bar.
I can only extrapolate from the limited information I've had access to. History offers little from the viewpoint of the vanquished. Futurists like Toffler need to be read while bearing in mind the environment that they were experiencing when they were writing.
I think that regardless of present leadership the US will be forced to bow to the world's concerns over AGW. Whether militarily or economically America, and other entities that see global warming as a hoax will be forced to make good on their Paris pledges.
That will buy us some time.
Most of the more optimistic predictions stumble when they call for the magical/technological removal of GHG's from the atmosphere. That ain't happening - or at least it won't happen at the scale needed.
The grid won't be down in two years baring a very large nuclear war. The grid may fail in small isolated regions, but this isn't the unique catastrophe we're discussing.
18 years, again baring massive global conflict, is too early primarily because of the huge and redundant resources that can and will be expended in efforts to continue BAU. If the US were to lose the power from sea shore nuclear power plants due to sudden sea level rise rationing would allow us decades to build out enough gas, solar or windfarms to take their place.
The Soviet Empire died suddenly, but within a decade the Russian Federation had risen in it's stead.
If the US, the EU or even China were to fail politically or economically, the built up infrastructure would be patched together well enough to sustain some form of government, some form of economy, something close to BAU that would exist for decades or generations.
Alexandria slipped beneath the sea, but Egyptians moved to higher ground and are still extant.
Santorini exploded and peoples about the Mediterranean were decimated. A massive catastrophe that destroyed governments, altered weather and destroyed at least one culture. It's history survives in some of our most highly regarded mythologies.
What we're contemplating is something that dwarfs Santorini. What do we expect within 18 years that would equal that level of disruption?
It will come. It will be unimaginably damaging, but it won't occur suddenly nor without warning.
An island nation will sink. A crop failure will cause another Serbia, and another. Millions will die from heat exposure, more millions will be climate refugees. After all of these events have taken place. After international trade is curtailed. After localized wars for water, for food and for cooler lands the collapse will begin and the grid will fail.
We've yet to face the inundation of the first island nation. The grid will be extant for more than 18 years.
Please forgive both the pedantic nature and tome like size of this post. I'll attempt more succinct replies in the future.
Terry