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prokaryotes

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Past Extinction Events, as an Analog for Today
« on: July 15, 2019, 09:03:38 PM »
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Study the parallels between hyperthermals and current climate change is by finding a suitable analogue – that is, the hyperthermal that was most similar to the kind of global warming that we’re seeing today.

Carbon input during the PETM was likely still 10 times as slow as in the modern era. Indicators of PETM ocean acidification demonstrate strong dissolution, but modern rates are faster.

The build up period that led to the PETM, in which around 3tn tonnes of CO2 was released into to the atmosphere, may have taken thousands of years. In comparison, the onset of current climate change has taken less than two centuries.

Research suggests that the rate of carbon release as a result of human-driven climate change, and its resultant effect on the world’s oceans, could be “completely unprecedented”.[3]

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The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum has become a focal point of considerable geoscience research because it probably provides the best past analog by which to understand impacts of global climate warming and of massive carbon input to the ocean and atmosphere, including ocean acidification.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleocene–Eocene_Thermal_Maximum

Killing models during the Permian–Triassic mass extinction
[2]

STRESSORS
Temperature
Ocean acidification (Reduced PH)
Deoxygenation (extreme condition in Ocean, leading to hydrogen sulfide production)
Mercury loading
Increased dissolved seawater CO2

Multiple stressors can have synergistic impacts For example, high temperatures increase an organism’s oxygen demand and reduce its aerobic scope, while lower pH may reduce the oxygen-carrying capacity of blood pigments and seasonal hypoxia can reduce oxygen availability.

Likewise, temperature can have variable effects on susceptibility to metal pollution, and metal pollution can in turn reduce thermal tolerance.[1]

EVENTS

Flood Basalts and Mass Extinctions - Assessing volatile release, environmental change, and biological extinction at finer temporal resolution should be a top priority to refine ancient hyperthermals as analogs for anthropogenic climate change
   
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  • Flood basalts, the largest volcanic events in Earth history, triggered dramatic environmental changes on land and in the oceans.

    Rapid volcanic carbon emissions led to ocean warming, acidification, and deoxygenation that often caused widespread animal extinctions.

    Animal physiology played a key role in survival during flood basalt extinctions, with reef builders such as corals being especially vulnerable.

    The rate and duration of volcanic carbon emission controlled the type of environmental disruption and the severity of biological extinction.
[1]


[1]

THRESHOLDS / AMPLIFYING FEEDBACKS
A new model from MIT indicates that previous consensus climate models have underestimated the atmospheric CO2 levels required to push the ocean beyond a tipping point that would lead to mass extinction in the coming millenia:

Title: "Breaching a “carbon threshold” could lead to mass extinction"

http://news.mit.edu/2019/carbon-threshold-mass-extinction-0708

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We find that the observed pink noise behavior is intrinsic to Earth’s climate dynamics, which suggests a range of possible implications, perhaps the most important of which are ‘resonances’ in which processes couple and amplify warming https://news.yale.edu/2018/09/04/think-pink-better-view-climate-change

QUESTIONS

1. What role played hydrogen sulfide in past extinction events?

2. What can we exactly conclude about the rate of emissions today vs past events? What does it mean for ecosystem resilience, and planetary boundaries?

3. How will Earth's geomorphology respond to uptake in weathering, deglaciation - mass balance changes at the poles?

4. Why were some events characterized by extensive anoxia and widespread black shale deposition whereas other events were dominated by warming and acidification?[1]

5. What were the most important environmental kill mechanisms responsible for eliminating marine and terrestrial organisms?[1]


ANSWERS

1. The hydrogen sulfide at the Permian (and other extinctions) likely reflects an extreme development of the coastal "dead zones" that we see today. In terms of the cause, the consensus appears to have shifted somewhat towards nutrient runoff (and eutrophication) as the primary driver, rather than slowing ocean circulation as might have been proposed 10-15 years ago.

2. The rate of emission, and therefore the rate of environmental disruption, likely provides a first-order constraint for extinctions/adaptation - modulated by duration.

5. Species extinction and survival were likely rooted in their physiological responses to temperature, pH, oxygen, and related stressors, and a growing understanding from extant organisms provides clues to understand biotic vulnerability during hyperthermals.

[1]

TERMINOLOGY
Oceanic Anoxic Event (OAE) and mass extinctions are considered to be hyperthermals - usually associated with flood basalt eruptions.[1]. Phases of rapid global warming, known collectively as hyperthermals.[3]

Flood basalts are a subset of large igneous provinces (LIPs), the terms flood basalt and LIP are often used interchangeably, although the former should be reserved for the extrusive component of an LIP. Flood basalts are giant volcanic eruptions or series of eruptions that cover large stretches of land or the ocean floor with basalt lava.

RELATED

Hydrogen sulfide and environmental stresses / H2S is produced in response to numerous plant stresses, including heavy metal exposure, temperature, drought and salt stress. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0098847218311146

Ammonium intoxication is a previously unexplored killing mechanism for extinctions. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X19302407



REFERENCES

1. Flood Basalts and Mass Extinctions, Matthew E. Clapham and Paul R. Renne 2019 https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev-earth-053018-060136

2. Hyperthermal-driven mass extinctions: killing models during the Permian–Triassic mass extinction, Michael J. Benton 2018 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2017.0076

3. Hyperthermals: What can they tell us about modern global warming? https://www.carbonbrief.org/hyperthermals-what-can-they-tell-us-about-modern-global-warming
« Last Edit: July 16, 2019, 04:52:41 PM by prokaryotes »

prokaryotes

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Re: Past Extinction Events, as an Analog for Today
« Reply #1 on: July 16, 2019, 09:32:00 PM »
Made a video.

morganism

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Re: Past Extinction Events, as an Analog for Today
« Reply #2 on: May 16, 2021, 10:44:00 PM »
Time for a mass extinction metrics makeover

"n a new study in the journal Proceedings of the Royal Society B, Spalding and Hull point out deep flaws in the way mass extinctions are being projected and propose a new model for assessing biodiversity loss.

Part of the problem, they said, has to do with comparing extinctions found in the fossil record over millions of years with human-influenced extinctions from only the past century. Mass extinctions in the ancient world were typically characterized by "pulses" of extinctions, preceded and followed by quieter periods; the longer time frame reduces the historic average because it includes the surrounding quiet periods."

"Meanwhile, we know that ecosystems may be totally decimated, yet suffer very few extinctions. In that sense, extinction rates may even underestimate our influence upon the biosphere."

Spalding and Hull took pains to describe the perilous state of the natural world today, beyond the numbers of species extinctions. According to an Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) report in 2019, nearly 75% of all freshwater resources on Earth are used by crop and livestock production; human activities have significantly altered 75% of all ice-free terrestrial environments and 66% of marine environments.

Spalding and Hull's proposal is to change the metric from species loss to changes in the rocks beneath their feet.

"Humans change the rock record as soon as they enter an area, whether it is agrarian societies, beaver trapping, or the damming of rivers," Hull said. "We completely change the way the Earth forms itself and this can be seen in the rocks left behind."

The researchers said a variety of measurable metrics -- such as the chemical composition of sediments and grains of rocks -- are more readably comparable to ancient timescales.

"Historical comparisons offer the hope that we might begin to understand the relative scope and the eventual ramifications of our modification of the biosphere," Spalding said. "If we think these comparisons are important, we need to get them right."

http://spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=57358


Bruce Steele

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Re: Past Extinction Events, as an Analog for Today
« Reply #3 on: April 19, 2022, 09:09:04 PM »
I wanted to put Geros comment here .
https://nautil.us/the-ocean-is-having-trouble-breathing-15789/
The Ocean Is Having Trouble Breathing
A drop in oxygen levels is putting ocean ecosystems on life support.

BY JESSICA CAMILLE AGUIRRE
March 30, 2022
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People who make their living catching fish on the open ocean first noticed the strange phenomenon a few decades ago. It occurred in the shadow zones, the spots between the great ocean currents where sea water doesn’t circulate, off the coasts of Peru, West Africa, and California. The fisher people shared the knowledge among them like a common secret, a bounty that had an even stranger explanation: Sometimes, when the conditions were right, fish would swim closer to the surface of the seas. This made them easier to catch, as the shimmering hordes pushed their way upward, where sunlight filtered through the waters and the oxygen was rich. For the fishing trawlers, this was a wild boon. For the fish, it was something else—the shadow zones, low in oxygen, were expanding, and wildlife habitats were shrinking. Swimming upward, the fish were trying to catch their breath.

It wasn’t until the late 2000s that scientists formally identified what was happening. Observing time-series data from a handful of research stations in Hawaii, Bermuda, and the North Pacific, researchers noticed that the world’s oceans had been losing oxygen, probably for half a century. The existence of these shadow zones—where ocean circulation wasn’t robust and marine life sparse, called Oxygen Minimum Zones, or OMZs—was already well documented. But scientists found that these areas were expanding; they also saw that the ocean was deoxygenating on a systematic level, affecting every area of the seas. In addition to providing places where marine wildlife can thrive, oxygen levels are a critical harbinger of the planet’s health—and unlike ocean acidification, another ecological crisis affecting the pH levels of the oceans, deoxygenation is seen as a change to which adaptation is impossible.

Scientists are looking at places where anoxia—a complete absence of oxygen—already exists.

Researchers say the world’s oceans lost 2 percent of their oxygen between 1960 and 2010, a rate that would leave the oceans entirely devoid of oxygen in just a few thousand years, making them uninhabitable to most life. The causes of this deoxygenation are myriad, but can mostly be traced back to anthropogenic climate change caused by increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and related global warming trends. These carbon emissions are mostly produced by burning fossil fuels, and even if they were to stop immediately, they have already set in motion processes that will continue to affect the oceans for decades to come.1 That’s because ocean circulation, which is one of its primary mechanisms for oxygenating the deep seas, has already become sluggish due to warming, because the denser colder water sinks more readily. If carbon emissions cease, surface waters could recover quickly, but the deep oceans will remain transformed. Given what’s already been emitted, and the secondary effects on the planet, the global deep oceans are already set to lose at least 10 percent of their oxygen, which would be disastrous for species like pelagic sharks and tuna, because their high metabolism makes them intolerant of even a mild decline in oxygen.

Andreas Oschlies, a researcher at the GEOMAR Helmholtz Center for Ocean Research in Kiel, Germany, who has studied the oceans for three decades, said it is still far from clear how the oceans will change because scientific models that forecast biogeochemical changes are too optimistic about ocean deoxygenation: The changes observed in the field are twice as dramatic as scientific predictions. In other words, the oceans may be suffocating twice as fast as scientists expect. “A lot of ecosystems in the ocean depend on oxygen, and if you cannot breathe, nothing else matters,” Oschlies said. “There’s probably less flexibility to adapt than there is for ocean acidification, because animals can increase protection or make thicker shells or have some coating to fight acidification. With oxygen it’s really critical, it’s an essential element needed for respiration and there’s just no way to adapt.”

Of all the ocean’s telltale properties, its oxygen has been measured the most consistently for the longest time. In the late 19th century, in the early days of maritime research, when vessels like the HMS Challenger, sponsored by the Royal Society of London, trawled the high seas, researchers would pull up pails of water and measure its oxygen content to visualize the great churning of the oceans. The scientists on these vessels weren’t specifically interested in oxygen; they used its levels as a proxy marker to determine how the seas circulated. The amount of oxygen would tell them when the seawater last touched the atmosphere, since it’s through its surface that water takes in oxygen. Oceans also take up less oxygen from the atmosphere because oxygen is less soluble in hotter waters. At the same time, as ocean temperatures rise, the rate of respiration increases—animals and bacteria breathe faster when they are warmer—which also causes oxygen to decline, as it used more quickly by breathing creatures.

In addition to absorbing oxygen from the atmosphere, life in the ocean waters also produces oxygen in the same way that life on land does: through cellular respiration as part of photosynthesis. This process mostly unfolds in the upper layers of the ocean, where sunlight filters through and is taken up by the plant and animal life. Ocean ventilation transports this oxygen to the depths. Through this photosynthesis, the global oceans are a significant oxygen producer, but sea life uses most of the oxygen, making the process more or less neutral in terms of its impact on oxygen in the atmosphere.

Another driver of ocean deoxygenation is the excess of nutrients caused primarily by the runoff of molecules like nitrogen and phosphorous used for agriculture, what scientists call eutrophication. These nutrients cause algae growth to flare up in enormous blooms that block sunlight from entering the top layers of the ocean, killing the life that requires sunlight for cellular respiration and produces oxygen. Once these algae die, they sink to the bottom of the ocean and begin to decompose; the bacteria that contribute to the decomposition process also consume oxygen, further contributing to its overall decline.

There have been suggestions that another mass extinction event is already underway.

To understand how these processes could change the global oceans, scientists are looking at low oxygen zones, or places where anoxia—a complete absence of oxygen—already exists. Marilaure Grégoire, a member of the Modeling for Aquatic Systems research group and a scientist at the department of astrophysics, geophysics, and oceanography at the University of Liège, has studied the Black Sea, which has nearly anoxic conditions below 100 meters underneath the surface of the water.2 Because the Black Sea receives sea water from the Aegean, which is denser due to its higher salt content, the Black Sea’s lower layers don’t mix with the upper layers, causing a lack of ventilation that brings oxygen into the depths. In the absence of oxygen in the Black Sea, and similar spots in the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean, bacteria that want to recycle organic matter have to find another way to oxidize—to exchange electrons—and so they turn to nitrate, which they transform to nitrous oxide, another greenhouse gas. When bacteria use nitrate, it is no longer there for the use of potential primary producers like plankton. If bacteria in anoxic zones run out of nitrate, they turn to iron oxide and manganese oxide, and even to sulfate, which they transform to hydrogen sulfide, a toxic gas. In the Black Sea, this toxicity takes place deep enough that it’s not dangerous to humans, but in recent years, nitrogen-fueled algae blooms off the coast of Brittany, France, have caused the deaths of up to six people who inhaled hydrogen sulfide gas, including a passing jogger and a truck driver whose job it was to remove algae.3

All the mechanisms underpinning ocean deoxygenation and its accompanying, complicated chemical processes have precipices that, when breached, can set off self-reinforcing chain events that scientists call feedback.4 In eutrophication zones, for instance, low oxygen can cause phosphorous to be released from sediment at the bottom of the ocean, which precipitates further eutrophication, a vicious cycle. Similarly, in the Baltic Sea, there has been an accumulation of phosphates in sediment from old washing powders that were regulated out of existence at least 20 years ago. This phosphate continues to be released into the water, precipitating nutrient blooms from below, which, in turn, are causing some of the same kind of eutrophication that leads to more anoxia. “Suddenly we could have these runaway feedbacks, where expanding anoxia leads to more seafloor being in contact with anoxic waters and more phosphate being released from the sediment, fertilizing the ocean, producing more organic matter, more oxygen consumption, and even further lowering oxygen concentrations,” Oschlies said.

There’s no clear solution for restoring the oceans. But, as with climate change, it appears non-negotiable that the only way to slow ocean deoxygenation is to eliminate its drivers, mainly the burning of fossil fuels that leads to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide and warming global temperatures. Other solutions have been proposed, including introducing certain kinds of micro-algae that photosynthesize, producing oxygen in surface waters, and building enormous ocean pumps that could artificially supplement the natural churning of the seas caused by temperature variations. None of these methods are proven or even all that promising, Oschlies said.

Ocean deoxygenation has been seen on the planet before. In the late Devonian period, around 360 million years ago, oceans also experienced a steep decline in their oxygen levels. “This is quite the condition of the Devonian, where the slowing of the circulation, plus an increase of organic matter discharge into the ocean, follow the emergence of anoxia in the ocean,” Grégoire said. “So today some authors say we are almost at an age of anoxia, because the conditions are quite similar to what happened in the Devonian, where the ocean is stratified, where circulation is slowing down, and you have an enrichment of organic material.”

It’s not clear exactly what caused the widespread ocean anoxia that characterized the late Devonian—global cooling and volcanism are commonly suspected culprits that could have gone hand in hand with the deoxygenation—but the result was one of the mass extinction events that transformed life on Earth. During the Late Devonian Extinction, approximately 75 percent of the planet’s species disappeared forever; it was the second of the five biotic crises over the course of Earth’s history that rapidly decimated biodiversity on the planet.

There have been suggestions that another mass extinction event is already underway, evidenced by the systematic disappearance of animals—especially large land animals—that coincides with the appearance of humans around the world. But ocean deoxygenation suggests that the factors contributing to this new mass extinction are even more complex and entangled with the complicated chemical footprints of post-industrial life. Carbon emissions aren’t just changing the cycle of the seasons and planetary temperatures, but also asphyxiating the living beings in the sea. Everywhere, habitats are shrinking, and the survivors are in flight, gasping for air.

Bruce Steele

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Re: Past Extinction Events, as an Analog for Today
« Reply #4 on: April 19, 2022, 09:11:58 PM »
And drag over some “light comments”

Bruce Steele
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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #1183 on: April 13, 2022, 08:33:21 AM »
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Binntho, I am assuming Equitable climate has Ice free polar regions? And warm waters at the poles.
 So there are other people who think this would interrupt formation water processes.
“ Jeppsson (1990) proposes a mechanism whereby the temperature of polar waters determines the site of formation of downwelling water.[28] If the high latitude waters are below 5 °C (41 °F), they will be dense enough to sink; as they are cool, oxygen is highly soluble in their waters, and the deep ocean will be oxygenated. If high latitude waters are warmer than 5 °C (41 °F), their density is too low for them to sink below the cooler deep waters. Therefore, thermohaline circulation can only be driven by salt-increased density, which tends to form in warm waters where evaporation is high. This warm water can dissolve less oxygen, and is produced in smaller quantities, producing a sluggish circulation with little deep water oxygen.[28] The effect of this warm water propagates through the ocean, and reduces the amount of CO2 that the oceans can hold in solution, which makes the oceans release large quantities of CO2 into the atmosphere in a geologically short time (tens or thousands of years).[29] The warm waters also initiate the release of clathrates, which further increases atmospheric temperature and basin anoxia.”
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binntho
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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #1184 on: April 13, 2022, 09:03:51 AM »
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Hi Bruce, yes that is a compelling argument. In an equable climate, the polar waters will indeed be a lot warmer than now, probably well above 5C all year round.

Equable climates are thought to have existed in the late Cretacous and early Paleogene (~100 to 34 million years ago), however severe anoxic ocean events are few and shortlived, with one at ~120 mia and another at ~93 mia. Other similar events occur quite frequently, but never seem to last for a long time.

As the oceans warm they will definitely hold less oxygen and CO2. But extreme anoxic events (i.e. leading to mass extinction of ocean life) seem to be infrequent, even at times when the oceans were a lot warmer than they are today and particularly so at the poles.
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Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« Reply #1185 on: April 13, 2022, 01:28:52 PM »
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Quote from: binntho on April 13, 2022, 09:03:51 AM
Hi Bruce, yes that is a compelling argument. In an equable climate, the polar waters will indeed be a lot warmer than now, probably well above 5C all year round.

Equable climates are thought to have existed in the late Cretacous and early Paleogene (~100 to 34 million years ago), however severe anoxic ocean events are few and shortlived, with one at ~120 mia and another at ~93 mia. Other similar events occur quite frequently, but never seem to last for a long time.

As the oceans warm they will definitely hold less oxygen and CO2. But extreme anoxic events (i.e. leading to mass extinction of ocean life) seem to be infrequent, even at times when the oceans were a lot warmer than they are today and particularly so at the poles.

If de-oxygenation of deep waters is driven by stratification (warmer waters above, cooler waters below, leading to stagnation), then we should expect the situation to last only perhaps centuries to millennia, very briefly in geologic terms.

In such a stratified global ocean, the cold waters at depth cannot stay so cold.  They get *some* heat from above by (reduced) mixing (and slow conduction of heat downwards), and also get *some* warming from geologic sources.  These cold, deep waters have no means of cooling in a stratified ocean.  They must warm, and by warming, will tend to restart vertical mixing-- eventually.

So if warming of surface waters were to drive development of widespread anoxia and a Canfield ocean, we can take solace is knowing that it might only last some millennia before mixing and oxygenation resume.  How much harm can a few millennia of lifeless, toxic oceans do? /s