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What will JAXA (ADS-NIPR-VISHOP) 2019 ASIE September daily minimum be?

Above 5.25 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 4.75 and 5.25 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 4.50 and 5.00 million km^2
1 (0.9%)
Between 4.25 and 4.75 million km^2
1 (0.9%)
Between 4.00 and 4.50 million km^2
3 (2.8%)
Between 3.75 and 4.25 million km^2
18 (17%)
Between 3.50 and 4.00 million km^2
36 (34%)
Between 3.25 and 3.75 million km^2
19 (17.9%)
Between 3.00 and 3.50 million km^2
16 (15.1%)
Between 2.75 and 3.25 million km^2
6 (5.7%)
Between 2.50 and 3.00 million km^2
1 (0.9%)
Between 2.25 and 2.75 million km^2
1 (0.9%)
Between 2.00 and 2.50 million km^2
0 (0%)
Under 2.00 million km^2
4 (3.8%)

Total Members Voted: 105

Voting closed: August 10, 2019, 04:10:38 PM

Author Topic: JAXA 2019 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll  (Read 4954 times)

Juan C. García

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JAXA 2019 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« on: July 31, 2019, 04:10:38 PM »
The poll is for the minimum Daily Arctic sea ice extent in September 2019, as measured by JAXA (ADS-NIPR-VISHOP).

September mínimums have been:

 Year               Extent
                  10^6 km2
1980's Avg.     7.19
1990's Avg.     6.49
2000's Avg.     5.41
2010's Avg.     4.33
2000               6.04
2001               6.55
2002               5.51
2003               5.93
2004               5.68
2005               5.18
2006               5.63
2007               4.07
2008               4.50
2009               5.05
2010               4.62
2011               4.27
2012               3.18
2013               4.81
2014               4.88
2015               4.26
2016               4.02
2017               4.47
2018               4.46

Order by lowest to highest:
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: JAXA 2019 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #1 on: July 31, 2019, 04:26:27 PM »
It is very hot over Greenland, but in a couple of days, there will be low pressure over several parts of the Arctic. They are not too low, they will just bring a little cold weather.
I think that the melting could slow down, so I will go 1 bin up, from my bet last month.

3.50 - 4.00M km2

(I can change my bet before the poll ends)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Stephan

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Re: JAXA 2019 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #2 on: July 31, 2019, 05:27:45 PM »
I repeated my bin centered around 4.0 M km² from previous polls.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

mmghosh

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Re: JAXA 2019 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #3 on: August 01, 2019, 06:30:11 AM »
Staying in the 3.5 - 4.0 bin. 

Average for the 1980s was in the 7s.  Going by the trend, it seems the 2020s decade will be in the 3s. 2030s in the 2s.  2040s in the 1s = BOE. That's impressive in just a few decades.

Juan C. García

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Re: JAXA 2019 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #4 on: August 02, 2019, 02:35:44 AM »
It is very hot over Greenland, but in a couple of days, there will be low pressure over several parts of the Arctic. They are not too low, they will just bring a little cold weather.
I think that the melting could slow down, so I will go 1 bin up, from my bet last month.

3.50 - 4.00M km2

(I can change my bet before the poll ends)

That low is already hitting the Beaufort. It will be interesting in a few days to try to assess how much damage even a small low will have done.


It seems that GFS have changed from the forecast (a little more than a day ago) to now (reality). I checked yesterday and there were not too much wind around the pressure lows. Today we have a small cyclone. Not too important, but some wind can make the difference in the mixing of sea ice with warm water.

So lets wait and see how these 10 days of poll will develop.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2019, 03:24:56 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Paddy

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Re: JAXA 2019 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #5 on: August 02, 2019, 07:38:11 AM »
Staying in the 3.50 to 4.00 bin for now, will review after the piomas update.

oren

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Re: JAXA 2019 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #6 on: August 02, 2019, 05:46:24 PM »
It should be below 2016, and very probably above 2012, so I keep my 3.5-4.0 vote.

philopek

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Re: JAXA 2019 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #7 on: August 02, 2019, 06:04:15 PM »
It should be below 2016, and very probably above 2012, so I keep my 3.5-4.0 vote.

That's  in short the most probable outcome while my bin is one lower but for the same reasons.

+1
« Last Edit: August 02, 2019, 06:29:30 PM by philopek »

sailor

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Re: JAXA 2019 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #8 on: August 02, 2019, 06:10:05 PM »
Between 3.25 and 3.75 M
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Theta

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Re: JAXA 2019 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #9 on: August 02, 2019, 06:14:16 PM »
I'm going with under 2 mil as I believe conditions are ripe for an ice free arctic
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pearscot

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Re: JAXA 2019 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #10 on: August 02, 2019, 06:22:07 PM »
I think it will be around 4.25 million. I actually thought this year was going to beat 2012, but I just don't see it happening. All of the ice looks shattered/unhealthy and yet it still hangs on there. This year has just been extremely unpredictable for me and from here on out the major facet I will be watching is the crack along Greenland (to which I believe will continue to expand to roughly 100km).
pls!

passenger66

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Re: JAXA 2019 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #11 on: August 02, 2019, 10:36:01 PM »
Still guessing 3.5 and record low PIOMAS.

petm

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Re: JAXA 2019 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #12 on: August 02, 2019, 11:15:50 PM »
3.25 to 3.75

Record low actual volume certainly (unverifiable), record low PIOMAS maybe.

slow wing

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Re: JAXA 2019 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #13 on: August 03, 2019, 05:49:40 AM »
For now I'm sticking with last month's estimate: "Between 3.25 and 3.75 million km^2".

I'll keep watching and may exercise my discretion to change it before the poll closes.


July has been at least average and arguably a bit worse than that for the ice. No major storms or events but usually some wind and sometimes a fair bit of sun.

The reference area I always use to compare to is the 80N circle, which encloses an area of about 3.9 million km^2. So I'm guessing the ice extent will end up a little lower than that.


If 'no surprises' then it would probably end up at around 3.8 million but any surprises are likely to push it lower.


Considering the areas where there is currently ice south of 80N:

->  the Pacific side has already almost melted out - more so for this date than happened in any other year besides 2007;

-> The usual 'Beaufort tail' in front of the west CAA will presumably melt away to a large degree as the ice there is already broken up and there appears to be plenty of heat in the water in that region;

-> Yes, the CAA will retain some ice, but it will only be a couple of hundred thousand km^2. To balance that, the Greenland Sea is looking to end barer than in some years, including the record year 2012.


As for the ice detachment from the CAA, the degree to which that has happened is unprecedented in the years of the satellite record. I still expect the pack to drift back to the land before the extent minimum, but it might not. Also, that ice sanctuary has probably seen more heat than any previous year in the record, so some extent will be nibbled away there.


In addition to the possibility of a strong storm anywhere over the ice pack, I look to the Atlantic side for potential 'surprises' even if there is no such storm. The ice there has held on so far, but what about the claimed 'Atlantification' of the water there within the past couple of years? (More salinity and heat.) The Navy thickness map estimate shown below (for 2019-08-09) has relatively thin ice north of Svalbard and the Fram Strait. As we have seen on the Atlantic ice front in some previous years, some of that ice above the shelf of shallower water might disappear fast due to any heat in the water.

The Laptev sector may also get eaten away to well inside 80N.


So here is my guessed boundary, to be compared by eye with the 3.9 million km^2 enclosed by the 80N line. Again, it looks like "Between 3.25 and 3.75 million km^2".


So guessing a second place finish for low extent, behind only 2012. Guessing a record low volume, beating even 2012.
« Last Edit: August 03, 2019, 06:30:20 AM by slow wing »

DavidR

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Re: JAXA 2019 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #14 on: August 05, 2019, 02:28:59 PM »
I'm sticking with 3.25-3.75. We will be closer to the record than to the current second place holder. The temperatures above 80N+ have been significantly warmer than 2012 and 2019 for the past three months. I am expecting a late minimum because of it with plenty of melt potential in September.
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Paddy

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Re: JAXA 2019 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #15 on: August 08, 2019, 07:17:05 AM »
 Casual prediction: 2019 JAXA extent will stay in 2nd place to 2012 JAXA extent from now until the minimum.

Juan C. García

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Re: JAXA 2019 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #16 on: August 09, 2019, 05:59:41 AM »
I will go 1 bin up, from my bet last month.
3.50 - 4.00M km2
I will keep my vote on this poll: 3.50-4.00 M km2.

P.S. Only ~1.5 days left to vote or change your vote.  ;)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Lewis

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Re: JAXA 2019 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #17 on: August 09, 2019, 07:00:38 AM »
Trend is looking like 3 - 4 M km, but I voted 3.25 to 3.75

BenB

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Re: JAXA 2019 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #18 on: August 09, 2019, 10:16:42 AM »
Stuck with 3-3.5 million. Still think second place not too far behind 2012 is the most likely outcome.

RikW

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Re: JAXA 2019 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #19 on: August 09, 2019, 10:20:58 AM »
difficult one, if I should put a number on it it would be around 3.65/3.70 but I fear chances for getting lower than that are high, seeing weather forecast and state of ice. So I chose 3.25-3.75

slow wing

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Re: JAXA 2019 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #20 on: August 10, 2019, 05:31:40 AM »
"Between 3.50 and 4.00 million km^2"

Sneaked in just before closing and raised my estimate by half a bin...  :P

I didn't see any 'surprises' that would take out much extra ice.

True, there's currently that high pressure system in the ESS that's also acting in a dipole configuration to blow hot air from Russia into the Laptev sector, where the ice already has holes.

But it still takes a lot of energy to melt ice. By mid-August, sun and hot air can only do so much. It's the heat in the water that can still make a real difference. So, yes, wind can help by stirring things up and exposing the ice to more of that heat. Uniquorn also showed a great map of warmer currents expanding in the Beaufort Sea and also near and under the ice edge just north of Svalbard. So I expect more melting there.

But more overall melting to come than in other years? I don't see that there is particularly more vulnerable ice. Average melt would leave around 3.8 million km^2 at minimum, according to the helpful posts in the "2019 sea ice area and extent data".

So that's around the bin center for my chosen bin: "Between 3.50 and 4.00 million km^2"



Juan C. García

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Re: JAXA 2019 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #21 on: August 10, 2019, 06:03:20 AM »
10 hours to vote or change your vote.  ;)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

BeeKnees

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Re: JAXA 2019 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #22 on: August 29, 2019, 12:15:52 PM »
Looks like my 4.00-4.50 million km2 guess might be closer to the mark than I anticipated.   

Feeltheburn

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Re: JAXA 2019 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #23 on: August 30, 2019, 08:29:17 AM »
The poll graph looks like someone flipping the middle finger, which is the mean. I would have voted for a min. of 3.75 to 4.25, or maybe 4.0 to 4.5.
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Paddy

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Re: JAXA 2019 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #24 on: September 01, 2019, 08:26:30 AM »
Technically, the middle finger is the modal value...although from eyeballing it, the mean may possibly fall within the same range, if the data isn't sufficiently skewed for it to be the folded finger below.

passenger66

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Re: JAXA 2019 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #25 on: September 08, 2019, 02:33:19 PM »
I obviously did not predict the extent loss slowdown. The consensus seems to be that it is dispersion more than actual melting slowdown. I don't believe in negative feedbacks and Stephan's plot showing a linear decline shows no (non-linear) feedback one way or the other. My thinking is that the northern hemisphere should be trapping more and more heat and the arctic should be retaining less and less cold, so the arctic decline should accelerate. But once again this year it has somehow kept to a linear decline. Obviously there is something I don't understand.

DavidR

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Re: JAXA 2019 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #26 on: September 17, 2019, 08:24:21 AM »
Unless something extraordinary happens it looks like more than 50% of the voters got this poll right. This applies even if extent drops another 250K.
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Paddy

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Re: JAXA 2019 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #27 on: September 18, 2019, 02:06:39 PM »
Unless something extraordinary happens it looks like more than 50% of the voters got this poll right. This applies even if extent drops another 250K.

Curiously, it looks like the hit rate in June this year (49.1%) was better than the hit rate in July (33.6%).
I'm assuming it doesn't drop another 250k. but that seems a very safe bet right now.

Juan C. García

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Re: JAXA 2019 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #28 on: October 01, 2019, 07:42:55 PM »
It is old news, but let's post it anyway.
Minimum on September 17th: 3.96M km2.
54 votes of the total of 105 were right (51.4%).  ;)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.