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vigilius

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Why people don't listen to experts
« on: July 28, 2019, 04:56:38 AM »
FWIW I thought this article deserved some attention. Started a new thread because I couldn't figure out a more appropriate way to post it, hope that's okay.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/opinion/outlook/article/Why-people-don-t-listen-to-experts-on-climate-14120892.php

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Why people don't listen to experts
« Reply #1 on: July 28, 2019, 07:07:05 AM »
I'm blocked from that website.  What does it say?  Why is it important to you? (even if I could guess)
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

nanning

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Re: Why people don't listen to experts
« Reply #2 on: July 28, 2019, 08:43:39 AM »
It is the opinion of a scientist on the current state of affairs; why there is hardly any action.

vigilius, I think the appropriate thread is: "what's new in climate change and acceptance"

edit: Tor, I am in the Netherlands, use firefox with ghostery and UBlockOrigin on gnu/linux. I just got a large popup with cookie options to accept and after accepting got access.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

Rich

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Re: Why people don't listen to experts
« Reply #3 on: July 28, 2019, 09:33:31 AM »
Al Gore hit it on the head. Climate change is inconvenient.

People have their inertia and very little changes that until they run into a brick wall.

People are too lazy to address their personal inertia. We're no different here in that regard.

We have lots of threads here dedicated to topics like when will the ice go free and what will be the impact of a BOE. Is there any benefit to these questions? Is there any benefit to the answers to these questions?
Probably not. We'll be well committed to catastrophe long before the Arctic goes ice free.

We do it because of inertia (and our interest in collapse porn)

The purpose of this point is that it to illustrate that it is politically incorrect to question each other's inertia vis a vis AGW. It is a social disease at present.

oren

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Re: Why people don't listen to experts
« Reply #4 on: July 28, 2019, 11:03:33 AM »
Yes, for some there is great benefit in these questions and their answers.
And please don't try to psychoanalyze other members.

nanning

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Re: Why people don't listen to experts
« Reply #5 on: July 28, 2019, 11:14:04 AM »
Rich, what you call personal inertia, I call lack of personal responsibility; Low morality.

Many are still ignorant and therefore not yet guilty in my view but the people who know about the effects of emissions are. Lowering ones carbon footprint shouldn't stop when it gets uncomfortable or difficult. It should go on until annual emissions are below, let's say, 100 Kg CO2 (0.1*7.6E9=0.76 GT/y). Only then is one not participating in the destruction anymore. And that's just the CO2 component of the destruction.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

Rich

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Re: Why people don't listen to experts
« Reply #6 on: July 28, 2019, 01:31:06 PM »
Yes, for some there is great benefit in these questions and their answers.
And please don't try to psychoanalyze other members.

I'm not engaging in psychoanalysis and I'm not singling out any individual members.

I'm making some very fundamental observations about human behavior which applies to everybody, including the population of humans here at ASIF.

In a sense, you are proving part of my thesis of why AGW is so hard to address.It is politically correct to question the inertia of "others", but taboo to do so in your own community. Your comment comes across as reflexive.

If you think there is great benefit from the question "when will the Arctic go ice free", please speak to the perceived benefit and let's discuss.

DrTskoul

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Re: Why people don't listen to experts
« Reply #7 on: July 28, 2019, 01:39:13 PM »
Most here have a first world bias. Poor people and people in developing countries have a month by month or even a day by day plan. Food, water, shelter, steady work to provide for family. Abstract things like saving the plant are not in their list of concerns. They are not to be berated as ignorant, lacking responsibility or anything else. They are just trying to survive. The largest increase in the CO2 emissions in the next decade will come from those people escaping to middle class...

Rich

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Re: Why people don't listen to experts
« Reply #8 on: July 28, 2019, 02:21:33 PM »
Most here have a first world bias. Poor people and people in developing countries have a month by month or even a day by day plan. Food, water, shelter, steady work to provide for family. Abstract things like saving the plant are not in their list of concerns. They are not to be berated as ignorant, lacking responsibility or anything else. They are just trying to survive. The largest increase in the CO2 emissions in the next decade will come from those people escaping to middle class...

I agree with your post. The epicenter of inertia driving us over the edge is in first world countries.

in the story of the Lorax, the Onceler comes in and destroys everything to manufacture and market Thneeds which are things no one needs. Social inertia and standing propels us to buy and build big houses, travel overseas and continually update our wardrobe.

In order to solve the Thneeds problem, it makes sense to understand the social inertia and try to tackle it.

If you use the conventional understanding of the IPCC as a benchmark for ecological damage forecast,  we need to reduce emissions by 45% by 2030. There is a lot of credible opinion that this is not doable. I choose not to express an opinion on that matter.

From the perspective of species preservation, humanity is in a situation that can collectively be described as insane while most of the individual decisions can be understood in a logical survival context.

What causes individuals to tip from one mode of behavior to another? That is the most important science IMO.

Your brief analysis doesn't explain why people join Extinction Rebellion, go vegan, install solar panels or give up collapse porn. You only explain why people don't engage in activism. That's half the story.


philopek

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Re: Why people don't listen to experts
« Reply #9 on: July 28, 2019, 02:27:06 PM »
Al Gore hit it on the head. Climate change is inconvenient.

People have their inertia and very little changes that until they run into a brick wall.

People are too lazy to address their personal inertia. We're no different here in that regard.

We have lots of threads here dedicated to topics like when will the ice go free and what will be the impact of a BOE. Is there any benefit to these questions? Is there any benefit to the answers to these questions?
Probably not. We'll be well committed to catastrophe long before the Arctic goes ice free.

We do it because of inertia (and our interest in collapse porn)

The purpose of this point is that it to illustrate that it is politically incorrect to question each other's inertia vis a vis AGW. It is a social disease at present.


I'm baffled (compliment)

Best till now and this is very much key as you say. We analyze a lot bot don't use results in a solution oriented manner for the exact reason you describe. Most that is discussed beside that is
"noise".

Perhaps it's worth to add that there are two many fractured fields of expertise that leave out the big picture and that there are too many contradicting experts, in part due to what you just wrote but in great parts due to social and monetary interests. (money, fame, titles, etc.)

DrTskoul

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Re: Why people don't listen to experts
« Reply #10 on: July 28, 2019, 02:37:24 PM »
There is also the Cassandra effect. People do not want to be told we are heading to a catastrophe, especially since from their perspective the world is enormous and we cannot possibly be affecting it. "Nature is resilient and God will provide"......

Rich

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Re: Why people don't listen to experts
« Reply #11 on: July 28, 2019, 02:51:09 PM »
There is also the Cassandra effect. People do not want to be told we are heading to a catastrophe, especially since from their perspective the world is enormous and we cannot possibly be affecting it. "Nature is resilient and God will provide"......

The Cassandra Effect is a big deal, but the opportunity to explore it amongst ourselves at ASIF is probably limited. Most people here accept the possibility of catastrophic collapse.

philopek

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Re: Why people don't listen to experts
« Reply #12 on: July 28, 2019, 03:15:42 PM »
....Most people here accept the possibility of catastrophic collapse.

I'm not sure whether i understand 100% what you are saying:

I. The possibility certainly exists and to accept the fact that it exists is the right thing to, else we would repress it like in "Ostrich Policy" dunno whether that term works in English.

II. I for my part don't say it's only a possibility but a certainty and it does not even take much analysis because history has shown the mechanisms of human behavior as well as the mechanisms that drive our climate as well as it's consequences.

Like in the melting season the climate changes have their momentum and with the current momentum of warming and it's consequences the question is not "IF" but "WHEN" and how exactly.

If that is what you meant, OK then, else try to explain where you disagree and especially "WHY".

Rich

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Re: Why people don't listen to experts
« Reply #13 on: July 28, 2019, 03:29:38 PM »
....Most people here accept the possibility of catastrophic collapse.

I'm not sure whether i understand 100% what you are saying:

I. The possibility certainly exists and to accept the fact that it exists is the right thing to, else we would repress it like in "Ostrich Policy" dunno whether that term works in English.

II. I for my part don't say it's only a possibility but a certainty and it does not even take much analysis because history has shown the mechanisms of human behavior as well as the mechanisms that drive our climate as well as it's consequences.

Like in the melting season the climate changes have their momentum and with the current momentum of warming and it's consequences the question is not "IF" but "WHEN" and how exactly.

If that is what you meant, OK then, else try to explain where you disagree and especially "WHY".

You are reading something from nothing.

The people here at ASIF are enlightened regarding ecological disaster. There's no need to explore the Cassandra Effect here because almost no one suffers from it.

Bystander effect. Engaging in "noise" discussions. Collapse porn. Giving up,etc. Those are better discussions here that could yield a more enlightened approach.

philopek

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Re: Why people don't listen to experts
« Reply #14 on: July 28, 2019, 04:03:55 PM »
....Most people here accept the possibility of catastrophic collapse.

I'm not sure whether i understand 100% what you are saying:

I. The possibility certainly exists and to accept the fact that it exists is the right thing to, else we would repress it like in "Ostrich Policy" dunno whether that term works in English.

II. I for my part don't say it's only a possibility but a certainty and it does not even take much analysis because history has shown the mechanisms of human behavior as well as the mechanisms that drive our climate as well as it's consequences.

Like in the melting season the climate changes have their momentum and with the current momentum of warming and it's consequences the question is not "IF" but "WHEN" and how exactly.

If that is what you meant, OK then, else try to explain where you disagree and especially "WHY".

You are reading something from nothing.

The people here at ASIF are enlightened regarding ecological disaster. There's no need to explore the Cassandra Effect here because almost no one suffers from it.

Bystander effect. Engaging in "noise" discussions. Collapse porn. Giving up,etc. Those are better discussions here that could yield a more enlightened approach.

So we're back to the "Rich" pattern

I said:

a) I'm not sure whether i understand (that's not reading anything)

b) It was a question and questions don't "read" but "ask" so your reply did not anwer
my question but translates into kind of offense.

Back to normal though :(

Rich

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Re: Why people don't listen to experts
« Reply #15 on: July 28, 2019, 04:19:06 PM »
When future archaeologists exhume the contents of the web, they will stumble across the contents of ASIF, what will they say?

They are going to understand that this community had a pretty good idea of what was going down. They'll see threads indicating lots of conscientious individuals who took steps to limit their GHG footprint.

They'll see threads highlighting the resistance movement from folks like Greta Thunberg and Extinction Rebellion. The people who took the heroic steps to throw themselves on the gears of 21st century madness.

Then they'll look at the banner and see "Arctic Sea Ice Forum - interesting discussions" and say that the forum did exactly what it was designed to do. It was arguably the most interesting place on the web to discuss the coming ecological collapse. That's a compliment. If you want to understand what is going down, this is arguably the best place to do so. That's a huge compliment !!!

What they might not be able to conclude was that ASIF was part of the heroic resistance represented by people like Greta and XR. Sympathetic to it? Absolutely!!

They will look back and see all of that energy and focus on BOE's and the intrigue of the daily weather and see a combination of intelligence, fascination and fear dedicated to detailing the collapse, but not necessarily fighting it.

They might wonder why people were so obsessed with whether a BOE occurred in 2030 or 2060 when they knew the world was passing through tipping points to collapse in 2020?

Maybe they gave up? Maybe they didn't believe that the catastrophe could be averted or lessened anymore? Maybe they felt powerless to do anything about it?

Who knows.

I appreciate ASIF. It is an amazing resource and I have incredible respect for Neven's bandwidth as a moderator. The community if contributors is outstanding and I'm not aware of anything comparable in the web. KUDOS !!!

Still, despite that....  we are marching toward disaster as a species. It's time to throw ourselves on the gears of inertia or perish in ugly fashion.



Rich

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Re: Why people don't listen to experts
« Reply #16 on: July 28, 2019, 04:33:22 PM »
....Most people here accept the possibility of catastrophic collapse.

I'm not sure whether i understand 100% what you are saying:

I. The possibility certainly exists and to accept the fact that it exists is the right thing to, else we would repress it like in "Ostrich Policy" dunno whether that term works in English.

II. I for my part don't say it's only a possibility but a certainty and it does not even take much analysis because history has shown the mechanisms of human behavior as well as the mechanisms that drive our climate as well as it's consequences.

Like in the melting season the climate changes have their momentum and with the current momentum of warming and it's consequences the question is not "IF" but "WHEN" and how exactly.

If that is what you meant, OK then, else try to explain where you disagree and especially "WHY".

You are reading something from nothing.

The people here at ASIF are enlightened regarding ecological disaster. There's no need to explore the Cassandra Effect here because almost no one suffers from it.

Bystander effect. Engaging in "noise" discussions. Collapse porn. Giving up,etc. Those are better discussions here that could yield a more enlightened approach.

So we're back to the "Rich" pattern

I said:

a) I'm not sure whether i understand (that's not reading anything)

b) It was a question and questions don't "read" but "ask" so your reply did not anwer
my question but translates into kind of offense.

Back to normal though :(

You add just as much suffering to the world by taking offense as by giving it. Internet text discussion is tricky and we're all doing our best.

Almost nothing or no one offends me.  As has been pointed out, I do my thing. I welcome the criticism as an opportunity to learn and better explain where I'm coming from.

Criticism is an asset and that makes you an asset philopek. The name calling doesn't bother me.



kassy

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Re: Why people don't listen to experts
« Reply #17 on: July 28, 2019, 10:36:34 PM »
Quote
When future archaeologists exhume the contents of the web, they will stumble across the contents of ASIF, what will they say?

This is a website about stuff going on which has a purpose as long as the stuff is going on (and we can add an ant and drag it on).

You have the fire, you are in the US. Go start a third party that saves the world and does not fuck over the common people.

It is possible but it was never the scope of this forum.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

gerontocrat

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Re: Why people don't listen to experts
« Reply #18 on: July 28, 2019, 11:17:59 PM »
A polemic a day sends a reader away.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

TerryM

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Re: Why people don't listen to experts
« Reply #19 on: July 28, 2019, 11:30:25 PM »
A polemic a day sends a reader away.
:)


Do you think that a little of the DK Effect might be at play, leading many to eschew the advice of experts?
Terry

kassy

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Re: Why people don't listen to experts
« Reply #20 on: July 29, 2019, 12:17:25 AM »
The play is more like discussing important stuff in a way which makes it look not important. Discussing all your metrics with your language while dropping hints that it is not actually important.

There is stupid and malice. Stupid is really wrong while malice will skit close to truths and distort.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Rich

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Re: Why people don't listen to experts
« Reply #21 on: July 29, 2019, 12:55:17 AM »
A polemic a day sends a reader away.

A society grows great when old men plant trees in whose shade they know they shall never sit.

I'm approaching expiration date and judging by your moniker, you're no spring chicken.

Good to leave a legacy of fighting for the young people, no?

philopek

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Re: Why people don't listen to experts
« Reply #22 on: July 29, 2019, 01:00:47 AM »
A polemic a day sends a reader away.
:)

Do you think that a little of the DK Effect might be at play, leading many to eschew the advice of experts?
Terry

You are really good i must say!

A great example about how to impart sensitive information in a perfect manner without triggering disputes.

mabarnes

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Re: Why people don't listen to experts
« Reply #23 on: July 29, 2019, 01:32:57 AM »
Econ has this down pat. 

Externality - an individual makes a choice that has a positive impact (benefit minus cost) to that person, because some, most, or all of the costs are borne by others.  A simple example - ordering dinner with a group when you've pre-arranged to divide the check evenly.  Worse, ordering drinks.  Louis XIV anyone?

Free Rider - the action, whoever does it, benefits everyone.  So one can simply wait for others to act and benefit without any time or effort.  This often leads to nobody acting.

Tragedy Of The Commons - individual payoff is positive to some behavior, for each individual facing the decision separately.  Collectively, the social optimum level of behavior is exceeded.  Named for observed overgrazing of village "commons" ... also applies to over-fishing, etc.

The good news is, there are well-known solutions to these incentive effects.  The bad news, politicians have a hard time understanding them ... or more so have the wrong incentives placed upon them to behave in their constituents' best interest.

OK so as an economist, I'm going to spare you the "on the other hand" part.  ;)

Rich

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Re: Why people don't listen to experts
« Reply #24 on: July 29, 2019, 02:00:48 AM »
Quote
When future archaeologists exhume the contents of the web, they will stumble across the contents of ASIF, what will they say?

This is a website about stuff going on which has a purpose as long as the stuff is going on (and we can add an ant and drag it on).

You have the fire, you are in the US. Go start a third party that saves the world and does not fuck over the common people.

It is possible but it was never the scope of this forum.

You make a good point kassy. And it's a fair question as to what am I doing about it besides exhorting others to action? Am I a hypocrite?

I am an ascetic who cut my utility bill to $0.50 / day here in the desert for 9 months a year and keep the a/c at 76 in the summer. I drive < 100 miles a month. I have given up air travel.

I come from a background full of bourgeois Americana. Some are politically correct, but none amto the point where they are willing to give up their 10+ tons of annual travel emissions. America is a tough nut to crack. And 3rd party isn't happening here. The US media is straight up Orwellian.

This may be a last try for me. If I can't get an audience of people who actually understand that disaster is coming to reflect, do you think there's a chance with a bunch of selfish Yanks?

AGW is a tough one. It doesn't fit the threat profile that humans have evolved to deal with. Unprecedented, invisible, complicated and no enemy.

Hard to watch it unfold. Hard to look away. 


Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Why people don't listen to experts
« Reply #25 on: July 29, 2019, 09:54:38 PM »
Thanks for starting this thread. I was just about to shoehorn that article into some half-related thread.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

DrTskoul

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Re: Why people don't listen to experts
« Reply #26 on: July 30, 2019, 12:54:09 AM »
Quote
When future archaeologists exhume the contents of the web, they will stumble across the contents of ASIF, what will they say?

This is a website about stuff going on which has a purpose as long as the stuff is going on (and we can add an ant and drag it on).

You have the fire, you are in the US. Go start a third party that saves the world and does not fuck over the common people.

It is possible but it was never the scope of this forum.

You make a good point kassy. And it's a fair question as to what am I doing about it besides exhorting others to action? Am I a hypocrite?

I am an ascetic who cut my utility bill to $0.50 / day here in the desert for 9 months a year and keep the a/c at 76 in the summer. I drive < 100 miles a month. I have given up air travel.

I come from a background full of bourgeois Americana. Some are politically correct, but none amto the point where they are willing to give up their 10+ tons of annual travel emissions. America is a tough nut to crack. And 3rd party isn't happening here. The US media is straight up Orwellian.

This may be a last try for me. If I can't get an audience of people who actually understand that disaster is coming to reflect, do you think there's a chance with a bunch of selfish Yanks?

AGW is a tough one. It doesn't fit the threat profile that humans have evolved to deal with. Unprecedented, invisible, complicated and no enemy.

Hard to watch it unfold. Hard to look away.

Having lived half of my life in Europe I can tell you that on average the throne of selfishness is shared....

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Why people don't listen to experts
« Reply #27 on: July 30, 2019, 05:20:00 PM »
Centralized power determines expert status. Centralized power should be viewed with significant skepticism. Experts act as the mouth pieces for centralized power and should not be carte blanche listened to and believed. It can be hard to see in todays world cuz the forest isn't always visible through the trees. But history shows what I am saying very clearly.
big time oops

mitch

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Re: Why people don't listen to experts
« Reply #28 on: July 30, 2019, 06:04:50 PM »
We are in paranoid times when people think that experts are determined by "centralized power".  Instead, we find that groups pushing agendas tend to produce alt-experts that ignore facts.

blumenkraft

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Re: Why people don't listen to experts
« Reply #29 on: July 30, 2019, 06:26:39 PM »
We are in paranoid times when people think that experts are determined by "centralized power".  Instead, we find that groups pushing agendas tend to produce alt-experts that ignore facts.

Well said!
Refugees welcome

Klondike Kat

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Re: Why people don't listen to experts
« Reply #30 on: July 31, 2019, 12:33:01 AM »
I think both are correct.  Groups pushing agendas and central powers are both presenting experts, oftentimes contradicting each other.  This makes it quite difficult for the novice to decipher.  In the end, people tend to believe what they want to believe, and find experts who will confirm it.  Independent thinking seems to be fading among the masses.

DrTskoul

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Re: Why people don't listen to experts
« Reply #31 on: July 31, 2019, 02:15:45 AM »
I think both are correct.  Groups pushing agendas and central powers are both presenting experts, oftentimes contradicting each other.  This makes it quite difficult for the novice to decipher.  In the end, people tend to believe what they want to believe, and find experts who will confirm it.  Independent thinking seems to be fading among the masses.

Independent thinking does not mean critical thinking.

I am speculating that all the participants in this forum have above average skills in independent critical and analytical thinking and therefore not representative of the average population.  So sometimes is very difficult to put ourselves in the shoes of the average person.

DrTskoul

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Re: Why people don't listen to experts
« Reply #32 on: July 31, 2019, 11:37:09 AM »
The Brief Spring of Global Science: How Climate Science is Affected by Nationalism and Propaganda

Quote
The same destiny may be affecting climate science: despite decades of efforts of thousands of excellent scientists, it tends to fall into the same category of government-sponsored propaganda. All this goes together with the locking up of science and scientists within national boundaries, something that may turn foreign scientists from colleagues into enemy agents and foreign science into political propaganda.

And now? Could we ever recover a unity in science allowing us to act together against climate change? Could we do that before it will be too late? For sure, at present, we are moving in the opposite direction. As usual, when people refuse to talk to each other, the only possible way to communicate is to fight. And, unfortunately, it may be where we are heading to.

be cause

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Re: Why people don't listen to experts
« Reply #33 on: July 31, 2019, 11:48:18 AM »
I've noticed Greta has become a huge hate figure among little britain's brexiteers .. dropping her from a helicopter is one of the kinder suggestions . It seems environmentalists are in the sights of right-wing nutters across the world .. come the revolting revolution (or sooner) . Being an expert was a considerable disadvantage in Pol Pot's Cambodia . The right in the west consider this the best way to deal with intellegent thought . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Rich

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Re: Why people don't listen to experts
« Reply #34 on: July 31, 2019, 12:41:03 PM »
I've noticed Greta has become a huge hate figure among little britain's brexiteers .. dropping her from a helicopter is one of the kinder suggestions . It seems environmentalists are in the sights of right-wing nutters across the world .. come the revolting revolution (or sooner) . Being an expert was a considerable disadvantage in Pol Pot's Cambodia . The right in the west consider this the best way to deal with intellegent thought . b.c.

There is no reason to share the details of some idiot's sadistic fantasty of what they would do to a 16 year old girl.

Alexander555

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Re: Why people don't listen to experts
« Reply #35 on: July 31, 2019, 12:53:59 PM »
We have 90 000 people a day that use the international airport. So that takes just a few summer months to move the entire population. What do you think they think from Greta ? Probably they don't say it, because she is just a 16 year old girl. Reality is that you don't step into that airplane with your plastic wrapped sandwishes if you care about what she has to say. And i know this is a very bad example. But if you look at that Boeing that crashed in Africa. It was full with global state employees (UN...), NGO's, Immigrants visiting family, intellectual experts, global corporations.....The kind of people that defend Greta. So where they all travelling to safe the planet ? It all sounds a little fake.