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bbr2314

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #50 on: August 15, 2019, 11:23:26 AM »
Besides Gerontocrat's chart, it is worth noting that flux beyond the raw positives is also increasing, and this measure is less visible (i.e. more snow and melt superimposed on the already dramatic increase, canceled out each day).

While the snow melt is significant, so is the prolonging of winter into April, May, and June. This does not mean melt stops when it normally starts and then commences later, the flux component means that melting still starts roughly when it used to, but it can keep going for much longer and peak much later in the year.

This makes the relative impact to temperatures much more significant than it would otherwise, IMO. The other factor is that the albedo differential in spring results in colder airmasses drifting into the NW NATL, activating ++sea ice in Newfoundland and Labrador vicinity and pushing cold winds atop the already-cold waters driven by the SWE flux.

Greenland can certainly contribute as well but even as bold as this year's melt has been, it hasn't held a candle to 2011-12 (despite overall albedo in Greenland appearing about as bad).

I think eventually this blob is going to persist late enough into the summer along with ++sea ice in Hudson Bay and +++SWE in Canada that we could see sustaining feedbacks continue past July, which would result in accumulations all-year-round for practical purposes.

Another interesting feature in 2019 is the cold blob that emerges from the West Coast from April into July. Thanks to the epic snow melt. These meltwater blobs are only two among many and are superimposed atop an overall regime of otherwise incredible warmth.

binntho

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #51 on: August 15, 2019, 12:36:36 PM »
Besides Gerontocrat's chart, it is worth noting that flux beyond the raw positives is also increasing, and this measure is less visible (i.e. more snow and melt superimposed on the already dramatic increase, canceled out each day).

I've been trying but I find myself totally unable to understand what you are trying to say here.

Quote
While the snow melt is significant, so is the prolonging of winter into April, May, and June.

Where?

Quote
This does not mean melt stops when it normally starts and then commences later, the flux component means that melting still starts roughly when it used to, but it can keep going for much longer and peak much later in the year.

Totally incomprehensible - or is it just me?
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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binntho

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #52 on: August 15, 2019, 12:37:35 PM »
Another interesting feature in 2019 is the cold blob that emerges from the West Coast from April into July. Thanks to the epic snow melt. These meltwater blobs are only two among many and are superimposed atop an overall regime of otherwise incredible warmth.

So again the claim that the cold SST's are due to melt water. Do you have any evidence whatsoever for this.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

bligh8

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #53 on: August 15, 2019, 04:09:23 PM »
Reply #212 on: November 18, 2017, 02:39:16 PM »

Quote
Within the following link (open access) is discussed evidence of
Iceberg transport, most likely sourced from the Antarctic Peninsula.
And that the East Falklands/Malvinas Current was still in operation during last glacial cycle.   The evidence of ice-berg scours and pits along the western side of the Falkland Islands would also result in further cooling from fresh, meltwater perturbations, enhancing the development of a potential ice-bridge along the Argentinean coast.

So, we have an Ice Bridge along the Argentinean coast, from the presence of ice bergs.
Now this is at the other end of the world and certainty not another Laurentide ice sheet.

But hey... it's a start

Bbr you have the ball

r2d2......out

oren

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #54 on: August 15, 2019, 06:08:41 PM »
binntho, I believe bbr claims that more snow is falling than is apparent in the cumulative SWE charts, and that some of the new snow melts each day, so snow amounts are actually higher than is apparent. There's an extra flux of water.
I do wonder, how different is that from rain?
And why not look at total precipitation to verify this claim?
And why not look at river flows to check if indeed more snowmelt reaches the ocean?
« Last Edit: August 15, 2019, 07:05:14 PM by oren »

gerontocrat

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #55 on: August 15, 2019, 06:27:20 PM »
... barely any Greenland ice melts due to contact with warm sea water, ,,,,,,

If the homework is not done the statement can become not only wrong but potentially very misleading.

https://phys.org/news/2019-07-underwater-glacial-higher.html
Underwater glacial melting is occurring at higher rates than modeling predicts
Quote
Researchers have developed a new method to allow for the first direct measurement of the submarine melt rate of a tidewater glacier, and, in doing so, they concluded that current theoretical models may be underestimating glacial melt by up to two orders of magnitude.[/size]

Underwater melting
How fast does warm ocean water melt glaciers that terminate in the sea? That question is central to understanding how fast ice sheets may lose mass, and thus how fast sea level will rise, in response to global warming, but there are few data about the process. Sutherland et al. used repeat multibeam sonar surveys to observe an Alaskan subsurface tidewater glacier face to create a time series of its melting and calving patterns. They observed melt rates up to a hundred times larger than those predicted by theory, observations that compel us to reevaluate predictions of such ice loss.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/365/6451/369
Direct observations of submarine melt and subsurface geometry at a tidewater glacier
Quote
Abstract
Ice loss from the world’s glaciers and ice sheets contributes to sea level rise, influences ocean circulation, and affects ecosystem productivity. Ongoing changes in glaciers and ice sheets are driven by submarine melting and iceberg calving from tidewater glacier margins. However, predictions of glacier change largely rest on unconstrained theory for submarine melting. Here, we use repeat multibeam sonar surveys to image a subsurface tidewater glacier face and document a time-variable, three-dimensional geometry linked to melting and calving patterns. Submarine melt rates are high across the entire ice face over both seasons surveyed and increase from spring to summer. The observed melt rates are up to two orders of magnitude greater than predicted by theory, challenging current simulations of ice loss from tidewater glaciers.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

MyACIsDying

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #56 on: August 15, 2019, 08:05:22 PM »
I thought I had seen a 4 degree C cooling in the cold blob area while looking at ERSSTs anomaly maps over the past century. As an apology I analyzed the ERSST v5 data with the area's subset and did find a 2°C degree difference compared to the world, but no downwards anomaly.

With that, some renewed speculation: in Hansen et al.. the models they operate on are based on meters of sea level rise, which could help glacier calving become a dominant factor I imagine (and required for the speed of mass loss they predict?)


KiwiGriff

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #57 on: August 15, 2019, 08:46:19 PM »
Good vid on the blob .

MyACIsDying

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #58 on: August 16, 2019, 12:07:17 AM »
This article suggest the pattern seen in my cold blob anomaly graph is directly related to AMOC strength (relevant graph attached). They predict AMOC strength reached a stable low for the next two decades.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0320-y
Global surface warming enhanced by weak Atlantic overturning circulation

Quote
Signals from salinity proxies at the subpolar Atlantic have almost reached the previous low. The subpolar gyre SST has started to warm. The deep Labrador Sea density, which is known to lead by 7–10 years changes in wider basin AMOC15,16, has stopped declining since 2014 (Extended Data Fig.4). The subtropical region is more prone to higher-frequency perturbations14, and the RAPID time series is experiencing its short-term oscillations (two so far) after the recovery from the large dip in 2010 so the decadal trend may be difficult to see. Nevertheless, it appears to have stabilized at that latitude. Previously, when AMOC reached its lowest AMOC– value after 1975, that level phase lasted two anda half decades. Although we have data only for one cycle, its observed non-sinusoidal pattern characterized by a prolonged flat minimum separated by steep peaks is as expected from the physical arguments presented above.

bbr2314

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #59 on: August 16, 2019, 01:11:36 AM »
binntho, I believe bbr claims that more snow is falling than is apparent in the cumulative SWE charts, and that some of the new snow melts each day, so snow amounts are actually higher than is apparent. There's an extra flux of water.
I do wonder, how different is that from rain?
And why not look at total precipitation to verify this claim?
And why not look at river flows to check if indeed more snowmelt reaches the ocean?
Let's look

bbr2314

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #60 on: August 16, 2019, 01:14:43 AM »
It looks like the Mediterranean is getting MUCH wetter as well.

I wonder if Green Africa episodes can be explained by this transition.

As things continue getting wetter and snowfall persists later into spring in wider areas it would figure that the Alps and high altitudes of Europe get substantially colder, as do the high elevations of northern Africa. More importantly this abundance of snowfall allows for much more clouds and RAIN over northern Africa. This is another potential feedback to consider, I wonder how quickly it could occur, and it would be one of the rarer positives IMO.

DrTskoul

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #61 on: August 16, 2019, 01:22:49 AM »
It looks like the Mediterranean is getting MUCH wetter as well.

I wonder if Green Africa episodes can be explained by this transition.

As things continue getting wetter and snowfall persists later into spring in wider areas it would figure that the Alps and high altitudes of Europe get substantially colder, as do the high elevations of northern Africa. More importantly this abundance of snowfall allows for much more clouds and RAIN over northern Africa. This is another potential feedback to consider, I wonder how quickly it could occur, and it would be one of the rarer positives IMO.

Yeah wetter... r u kidding me ??? Sudden thunderstorms does not make it wetter ... I am from there ...

bbr2314

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #62 on: August 16, 2019, 01:24:45 AM »
It looks like the Mediterranean is getting MUCH wetter as well.

I wonder if Green Africa episodes can be explained by this transition.

As things continue getting wetter and snowfall persists later into spring in wider areas it would figure that the Alps and high altitudes of Europe get substantially colder, as do the high elevations of northern Africa. More importantly this abundance of snowfall allows for much more clouds and RAIN over northern Africa. This is another potential feedback to consider, I wonder how quickly it could occur, and it would be one of the rarer positives IMO.

Yeah wetter... r u kidding me ??? Sudden thunderstorms does not make it wetter ... I am from there ...

???

Surface precipitation rate is the overall TOTAL PRECIPITATION per day anomaly, not the velocity of precipitation.

There is no total precipitation verbatim data available for after 2014. But this is the next best thing for seeing where is wetter and drier vs normal in the years aggregated.

bbr2314

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #63 on: August 16, 2019, 01:26:30 AM »
You can see 2019 yearly anomaly map matches the Nebraska surface map almost precisely.



DrTskoul

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #64 on: August 16, 2019, 01:30:00 AM »
Whoever lives by the map dies by the map. Departure from normal for a dry places means diddly squat...have you been in greece ? ... climate has been getting drier with sudden downpours that run to the sea...that might give you higher precipitation totals... but mean nothing for the state of the land

bbr2314

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #65 on: August 16, 2019, 01:32:05 AM »
Whoever lives by the map dies by the map. Departure from normal for a dry places means diddly squat...have you been in greece ? ... climate has been getting drier with sudden downpours that run to the sea...that might give you higher precipitation totals... but mean nothing for the state of the land
His question literally pertains to whether total precipitation rate has been impacting RUNOFF so thanks for proving my point... I think you need to take a step back and re-read everything here because you are just making nonsense posts.

DrTskoul

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #66 on: August 16, 2019, 01:41:11 AM »
You said about Mediterranean getting wetter. And I am telling you no, regardless the precipitation totals. Everybody understands what wetter climate or drier climate is ... as far as soil and  plants care it is not wet...

bbr2314

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #67 on: August 16, 2019, 01:48:52 AM »
<snip, leave out the personal insults. Final warning or it's back to moderation; N.>
« Last Edit: August 16, 2019, 09:08:18 AM by Neven »

DrTskoul

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #68 on: August 16, 2019, 02:21:22 AM »
I am just saying I've been living there ...

bbr2314

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #69 on: August 16, 2019, 02:22:08 AM »
I am just saying I've been living there ...
Since 1980? Have you been tracking the weather each year since then meticulously with satellites? In every location on the planet? Because if you haven't then let's defer to NOAA.

DrTskoul

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #70 on: August 16, 2019, 02:22:53 AM »
Since 1974...

oren

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #71 on: August 16, 2019, 02:28:59 AM »
I also live on the Mediterranean and I find the "getting wetter" claim to be ridiculous, though I lack the data to back it up atm. OTOH, I find it's also irrelevant to the thread's topic.

Any thought on river flows as an indicator on increased meltwater runoff?

wili

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #72 on: August 16, 2019, 03:51:43 AM »
As Alfred Korzybski remarked:  "the map is not the territory"

"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

El Cid

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #73 on: August 16, 2019, 08:25:52 AM »
as for the wet mediterranean:

1) I read an interesting research a while ago which stated that precipitation rates were about double of today in the Middles East (based mostly on speleothem data around Jerusalem) during the Holocene Climate Optimum (HCO). This coincides with the Green Africa period
2) Roman authors state that Alexandria (Egypt) had seen rain in every month except for August
3) Province Africa (present day Tunisia) was a breadbasket for Rome
4) Italy had different wind directions and more precipitation during the Empire than now
5) We also know from research I quoted previously on other threads that during the HCO we probably had the Scandinavian blocking high during summers, which probably created a low pressure zone in the Mediterranean

We also know that we had very little Arctic Ice (possibly non during summer) during the Holocene Optimum.

So it seems logical that as we lose the Arctic sea ice, the Mediterranean gets much wetter.

El Cid

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #74 on: August 16, 2019, 08:38:57 AM »
Precipitation changes for the world 2013-2018 full year: the Mediterranean stands out (but the middle east doesn't...yet???)

second chart: same but for dry season. Also very obvious

DrTskoul

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #75 on: August 16, 2019, 12:07:29 PM »
Italy rain trends last 10 years

TerryM

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #76 on: August 16, 2019, 12:55:10 PM »
From personal observations my local river - which dumps into Lake Erie - isn't as prone to extremes through the year as it previously was.
An earlier and longer and sometimes punctuated melt season gives rise to far less springtime flooding, and we're also experiencing slightly higher levels in late summer.
Terry

El Cid

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #77 on: August 16, 2019, 01:25:33 PM »
Italy rain trends last 10 years

well, I don't know what you are trying to prove with this one

The chart i attached is quite obviously showing that the past few years were very wet in the Mediterranean and very wet during the usually dry months. That is what the data say

wehappyfew

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #78 on: August 16, 2019, 02:38:39 PM »
Reanalyses do not equal observations

The model used by NCEP reanalysis may be reproducing an increase in precipitation that is not reaching the ground (virga).

An increase in virga is not unreasonable in a warmer drier atmosphere.

cognitivebias2

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #79 on: August 16, 2019, 02:43:10 PM »
Thanks WeHappyFew.  I've been trying to reconcile the data presented above and it was hurting my head.

bbr2314

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #80 on: August 16, 2019, 02:52:27 PM »
Italy rain trends last 10 years
So I am supposed to take World Bank data that ends in 2016 over NOAA output which is actually legitimate as I showed earlier this thread via comparison with the University of Nebraska maps. Ok.

Truly a parallel universe where deniers would use fake data to generate fake conclusions rather than utilize NOAA which is unmatched.

cognitivebias2

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #81 on: August 16, 2019, 02:56:38 PM »
bbr,

Show that rain hitting the ground please.  DrT presented Italy.  I looked at Malta and Palmero.  WeHappyFew presented a logical reconciliation.

This whole thread seems ludicrous to me, but people way smarter than me are engaging.  For that reason I am suspending my personal disbelief.

Somehow you jump wildly to the conclusion there is a denier conspiracy.  I see the exact opposite. 


<edit: spelling, punctuation>
« Last Edit: August 16, 2019, 03:13:07 PM by cognitivebias2 »

wehappyfew

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #82 on: August 16, 2019, 03:05:19 PM »
Science requires consilience. If you can show that rain gauges, river flows, soil moisture, etc are all increasing, then you have a good case.

So far, you have one reanalysis model in conflict with several observations. Refer to Feynman's quip about "beautiful theory" disagreeing with experiment.

MyACIsDying

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #83 on: August 16, 2019, 03:50:15 PM »
Both these precipitation trend articles indicate a much less then much but light increase in Italy and Greece over the past 40 years
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00259.1 (figure 11.)
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0065.1 (figure 4.)

In this period, Greenland lost 3000 Gt of Ice, that's also light compared to the 3 million Gt remaining. Extrapolating trends is what models do right?

DrTskoul

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #84 on: August 16, 2019, 04:12:40 PM »
Sure..

Quote
Temporal and spatial trends of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) in Greece using observations and output from regional climate models
E Kostopoulou, C Giannakopoulos, D Krapsiti, A Karali
Perspectives on Atmospheric Sciences, 475-481, 2017
Water scarcity is becoming a serious threat, which may have negative environmental and socioeconomic impacts. Increases in the projected global temperature and changes in regional distribution and intensity of precipitation may alter the frequency, severity and duration of droughts. In this study, we use the Standardized Precipitation Index to identify drought events in the present and future climate. The index is initially calculated using data from meteorological stations of the Hellenic observational network, and subsequently using output from three regional climate models. The period of 1971–2000 is chosen as present climate and the future climate conditions are studied using the model timeseries up to 2100. The present-period was divided into two sub-periods and significant drought events were identified over the recent period of 1989–2000. Overall, we found that intense droughts occurred in continental Greece, whereas the islands, including Crete, experienced milder drought episodes. The years 1989 and 2000 were the driest on record for Greece, resulting in serious consequences for both urban and rural areas. The 21st Century projections did not suggest radical changes in the region’s rainfall patterns, although potentially intense drought events are expected to increase in the western parts of the country.

Edit: Last off topic comment. Bottom line , reanalysis maps without reconciliation on the ground dont mean much for sth like drought.... the water vapor pressure at saturation vs. Water vapor pressure observed has increased a lot ( paper in some other thread). More water precipitation doesn't mean much if all of it dries out fast..

MyACIsDying

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #85 on: August 16, 2019, 04:39:10 PM »
Yes, the trend increase in minimal compared to groundwater depletion and evaporation with higher temps. Droughts definitely occur, precipitation trends are volatile so I wouldn't stake much on it's projections. But how else can we try to imagine what will happen?

Graph data: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.cmap.html

bbr2314

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #86 on: August 16, 2019, 04:49:26 PM »
Sure..

Quote
Temporal and spatial trends of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) in Greece using observations and output from regional climate models
E Kostopoulou, C Giannakopoulos, D Krapsiti, A Karali
Perspectives on Atmospheric Sciences, 475-481, 2017
Water scarcity is becoming a serious threat, which may have negative environmental and socioeconomic impacts. Increases in the projected global temperature and changes in regional distribution and intensity of precipitation may alter the frequency, severity and duration of droughts. In this study, we use the Standardized Precipitation Index to identify drought events in the present and future climate. The index is initially calculated using data from meteorological stations of the Hellenic observational network, and subsequently using output from three regional climate models. The period of 1971–2000 is chosen as present climate and the future climate conditions are studied using the model timeseries up to 2100. The present-period was divided into two sub-periods and significant drought events were identified over the recent period of 1989–2000. Overall, we found that intense droughts occurred in continental Greece, whereas the islands, including Crete, experienced milder drought episodes. The years 1989 and 2000 were the driest on record for Greece, resulting in serious consequences for both urban and rural areas. The 21st Century projections did not suggest radical changes in the region’s rainfall patterns, although potentially intense drought events are expected to increase in the western parts of the country.

Edit: Last off topic comment. Bottom line , reanalysis maps without reconciliation on the ground dont mean much for sth like drought.... the water vapor pressure at saturation vs. Water vapor pressure observed has increased a lot ( paper in some other thread). More water precipitation doesn't mean much if all of it dries out fast..
OMG. We are not discussing A B C or D here. We are talking about TOTAL PRECIPITATION. <snip, and moderation it is; N>

ESRL data IS ACCURATE which is why your anecdotal blah blah blah is so frustrating. I am not going to keep engaging here as I do not believe you are participating in good faith (or alternately you might just be obliviously ignorant beyond saving).

« Last Edit: August 16, 2019, 11:56:59 PM by Neven »

DrTskoul

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #87 on: August 16, 2019, 05:11:38 PM »
Sure..

Quote
Temporal and spatial trends of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) in Greece using observations and output from regional climate models
E Kostopoulou, C Giannakopoulos, D Krapsiti, A Karali
Perspectives on Atmospheric Sciences, 475-481, 2017
Water scarcity is becoming a serious threat, which may have negative environmental and socioeconomic impacts. Increases in the projected global temperature and changes in regional distribution and intensity of precipitation may alter the frequency, severity and duration of droughts. In this study, we use the Standardized Precipitation Index to identify drought events in the present and future climate. The index is initially calculated using data from meteorological stations of the Hellenic observational network, and subsequently using output from three regional climate models. The period of 1971–2000 is chosen as present climate and the future climate conditions are studied using the model timeseries up to 2100. The present-period was divided into two sub-periods and significant drought events were identified over the recent period of 1989–2000. Overall, we found that intense droughts occurred in continental Greece, whereas the islands, including Crete, experienced milder drought episodes. The years 1989 and 2000 were the driest on record for Greece, resulting in serious consequences for both urban and rural areas. The 21st Century projections did not suggest radical changes in the region’s rainfall patterns, although potentially intense drought events are expected to increase in the western parts of the country.

Edit: Last off topic comment. Bottom line , reanalysis maps without reconciliation on the ground dont mean much for sth like drought.... the water vapor pressure at saturation vs. Water vapor pressure observed has increased a lot ( paper in some other thread). More water precipitation doesn't mean much if all of it dries out fast..
OMG. We are not discussing A B C or D here. We are talking about TOTAL PRECIPITATION. You keep shifting the goalposts and acting like a crazy person.

ESRL data IS ACCURATE which is why your anecdotal blah blah blah is so frustrating. I am not going to keep engaging here as I do not believe you are participating in good faith (or alternately you might just be obliviously ignorant beyond saving).

Keep going bbr like the bully you probably are... I did not challenge you with personal attacks but oh well.... even if my comment is ignorant, which by the way so fucking what, there hundreds of ignorant comments here , that is what happens when non specialists read and misunderstand. But no, you have no patience,  and they need to be put in their place?  And we have to treat the people with the crazy ice age ideas with respect?
« Last Edit: August 16, 2019, 05:19:50 PM by DrTskoul »

Comradez

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #88 on: August 16, 2019, 05:14:34 PM »
It seems I have lost the thread of this conversation.  Can anyone explain to me what Mediterranean precipitation has to do with the supposed re-emergence of the Laurentide ice sheet? 

It looks like the Hansen study was founded on some egregiously unrealistic assumptions—namely, deciding to take as a given a bunch of exogenous pulses of -15C Greenland ice being dumped into the North Atlantic, despite the fact that if a first few pulses did cool the North Atlantic there would be negative feedback arresting further pulses of ice calving from neighboring Greenland.  Sooo...is the main question of this thread not done and settled?  Can we not confidently say that the Hansen study referenced by bbr is hogwash?

Bruce Steele

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #89 on: August 16, 2019, 05:19:30 PM »
bbr, I can't believe the crazy or ignorant comments. How many warnings do you need? Most of us lost any respect for your opinions a long time ago.

bbr2314

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #90 on: August 16, 2019, 05:22:37 PM »
Sure..

Quote
Temporal and spatial trends of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) in Greece using observations and output from regional climate models
E Kostopoulou, C Giannakopoulos, D Krapsiti, A Karali
Perspectives on Atmospheric Sciences, 475-481, 2017
Water scarcity is becoming a serious threat, which may have negative environmental and socioeconomic impacts. Increases in the projected global temperature and changes in regional distribution and intensity of precipitation may alter the frequency, severity and duration of droughts. In this study, we use the Standardized Precipitation Index to identify drought events in the present and future climate. The index is initially calculated using data from meteorological stations of the Hellenic observational network, and subsequently using output from three regional climate models. The period of 1971–2000 is chosen as present climate and the future climate conditions are studied using the model timeseries up to 2100. The present-period was divided into two sub-periods and significant drought events were identified over the recent period of 1989–2000. Overall, we found that intense droughts occurred in continental Greece, whereas the islands, including Crete, experienced milder drought episodes. The years 1989 and 2000 were the driest on record for Greece, resulting in serious consequences for both urban and rural areas. The 21st Century projections did not suggest radical changes in the region’s rainfall patterns, although potentially intense drought events are expected to increase in the western parts of the country.

Edit: Last off topic comment. Bottom line , reanalysis maps without reconciliation on the ground dont mean much for sth like drought.... the water vapor pressure at saturation vs. Water vapor pressure observed has increased a lot ( paper in some other thread). More water precipitation doesn't mean much if all of it dries out fast..
OMG. We are not discussing A B C or D here. We are talking about TOTAL PRECIPITATION. You keep shifting the goalposts and acting like a crazy person.

ESRL data IS ACCURATE which is why your anecdotal blah blah blah is so frustrating. I am not going to keep engaging here as I do not believe you are participating in good faith (or alternately you might just be obliviously ignorant beyond saving).

Keep going bbr like the bully you probably are... I did not challenge you with personal attacks but oh well.... even if my comment is ignorant, which by the way so fucking what, there hundreds of ignorant comments here , that is what happens when non specialists read and misunderstand. But no, you have no patience,  and they need to be put in their place?  And we have to treat the people with the crazy ice age ideas with respect?
I think your poor English skills could be to blame for the obvious dissonance between our perspectives here, which is not your fault, but as I have said, there is no point in continuing this conversation.

DrTskoul

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #91 on: August 16, 2019, 05:22:57 PM »
It seems I have lost the thread of this conversation.  Can anyone explain to me what Mediterranean precipitation has to do with the supposed re-emergence of the Laurentide ice sheet? 

It looks like the Hansen study was founded on some egregiously unrealistic assumptions—namely, deciding to take as a given a bunch of exogenous pulses of -15C Greenland ice being dumped into the North Atlantic, despite the fact that if a first few pulses did cool the North Atlantic there would be negative feedback arresting further pulses of ice calving from neighboring Greenland.  Sooo...is the main question of this thread not done and settled?  Can we not confidently say that the Hansen study referenced by bbr is hogwash?

I dont think the paper is hogwash. I just think the -15oC freshwater injection into several ocean grid layers is not sufficiently explained and justified in the paper. Maybe they did a sensitivity analysis but it is not presented.

DrTskoul

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #92 on: August 16, 2019, 05:27:10 PM »

I think your poor English skills could be to blame for the obvious dissonance between our perspectives here, which is not your fault, but as I have said, there is no point in continuing this conversation.

Those poor English skills have gotten me several thousand citations on my journal articles written in English. So who cares. Is the skill in a foreign language a key descriptor of thought and intelligence ? Again you cannot but go back to personal attacks... thank you for the display of your colors :)

And I am writing on my phone not caring correcting every typo...Toodles 

oren

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #93 on: August 16, 2019, 05:34:50 PM »
The Hansen study is not hogwash, but its purpose was not to test whether we can expect the next Laurentide glaciation. To use just this study as justification for this super-grand and senseless idea is hogwash. Those making extraordinary claims should offer more than just handwaving justification.

MyACIsDying

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #94 on: August 16, 2019, 05:44:45 PM »
The meters of sea level rise projected are the basis of the model, for that to happen.. Ice loss from Greenland is calculated at the given parameters. I've seen little appreciation for the amount of Ice (at -15C) that would be and its climate displacement effect.

Perhaps a small Laurentidial spinning ice disc in the N Atl, I like the idea of my AC moving into a retirement home before it dies out completely.
« Last Edit: August 16, 2019, 07:33:49 PM by MyACIsDying »

cognitivebias2

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #95 on: August 16, 2019, 07:07:52 PM »
In order to get the large cold weather pattern in NATL, Hansen is relying on an exponential increase in ice sheet discharge.  After 60 (2080-2020) years of doubling every 10 years, the NATL cold spot looks like it might support the above mentioned spinning disc of ice bergs and potentially some minor ocean freezing episodes.  We will set aside that Hansen says himself that this is too compressed a timescale, done to make the computing less onerous. 

If all this accelerated movement of ice from Greenland to the NATL causes such a profound shift in the local weather, where does the energy come from to keep doubling the flow exponentially?  I think the exact feedback mechanism that is supposed to create Laurentide II would be self limiting. 

The result falls more in line with the rational.  That is, negative feedback loop.  But not runaway negative feedback loop.  Never that.




MyACIsDying

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #96 on: August 16, 2019, 07:32:23 PM »
But global temperatures are rising exponentially.. Ice being displaced locally is not going to lower it's melting rate by default so does not have to cause a negative feedback loop.. It may slow down the south-east glacier release of Greenland but on most other sides high SSTs, warm air & sea level rise will continue to eat away at it at faster rates.  We'd have a BOE at this point, where does all that heat that normally going into melting the arctic, and more, go otherwise?

cognitivebias2

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #97 on: August 16, 2019, 07:39:14 PM »
All I'm saying is you can't have it both ways.  Local to the NATL we want a new ice age while flux from neighboring Greenland continues *exponentially* rising. 
« Last Edit: August 16, 2019, 09:13:22 PM by cognitivebias2 »

Rod

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #98 on: August 17, 2019, 04:37:51 AM »
bbr, I can't believe the crazy or ignorant comments. How many warnings do you need? Most of us lost any respect for your opinions a long time ago.

Bbr can be rude.  We can all agree with that. I wish he would not lash out the way he does. However, he has a theory that he believes.  He tries to support it, and everyone piles on him every time he speaks. 

I don’t agree with bbr’s theory, but I respect his opinion and he is one of the most dedicated people on this forum when it comes to trying to learn what is happening.

You guys who want to disagree with anything he says are not always right.  He is good at predicting weather and he gets things right sometimes.

Let him have his pet theory, and quit always attacking him.  I think if he was not always so defensive he would not say the rude things he says.

Of all the people on this forum, I pay special attention to what he posts.  Not because I believe his conclusions, but because I believe he is good at identifying important data that we should consider.

budmantis

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Re: Laurentide II
« Reply #99 on: August 17, 2019, 04:47:54 AM »
In reference to Rod's comments, I enjoy BBR's outside of the box thinking and I do tend to read his posts with interest. That being said, I don't necessarily agree with what he's saying, although I do find it interesting.

I think BBR needs to realize that when he is making claims, that to most of us seem farfetched, he should be prepared to deal with a lot of criticism. The best thing you can do to make your case BBR, is to have a thicker skin.


You'll find it easier to make your case, if you do it in a non-confrontational way.