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Author Topic: Reglaciation speculations (bbr)  (Read 913 times)

bbr2315

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Reglaciation speculations (bbr)
« on: August 29, 2020, 03:54:15 PM »
I have been exploring the Himalayan anomaly this year. Initially it seemed to be a data error but clearly it is not. I believe that there has been a major increase in extant snowcover and depth as confirmed by the Canuck charts over the Himalayas this summer.

The crocodilians came about in the Arctic when Greenland was not extant. What if we are now seeing snow lines falling in the tropics / mid-low latitudes and rising at the Pole?

The Himalayan event has correlated with the Chinese floods. If this is some kind of state change or long term oscillation (i.e., one year it is Quebec, the next the Rockies, the next Himalayas, where the orographic anomalies anchor...?) the floods may continue. I would suggest that the "Quebec hypothesis" although wrong in its inception did touch on this idea of specific NHEM regions retaining coverage through summer.

What if this begins in a piecemeal fashion (i.e. one summer it is one region, and the region switches each summer), and then accelerates to where it is happening in 2 regions, 3 regions, then all regions?

It could also be possible that we have been "shifting" into a gear that puts the Himalayas at the forefront of the summertime cryosphere. But this shifting may do the same to other mountain ranges -- so there is also potentially a domino effect.

This is all speculation, clearly, but I would suggest that the next region to fall to a major increase in summertime snow coverage could, paradoxically and surprisingly, be the Southern Rockies. From a planetary wave perspective it is roughly equidistant on the other side vs the Himalayas.

If +SWE can begin accumulating at highest elevations in both the Rockies and Himalayas as it continues dwindling in the highest latitudes alongside ice volume, this would have PROFOUND impacts on global climate.

IMO this suggest summertime polar/Ferrell cells over the continents / fed by the SWE and albedo feedbacks, which deposit massive amounts of the worsening +OHC over the mountain ranges at their core (and cold areas at periphery).

ALSO: I think this new system sark is illuminating and I am hopefully further exploring does NOT necessarily mean Greenland melt will abate. In fact, I wonder if the lower snow lines go in the Himalayas and Rockies, the higher they get on Greenland? The mountaintop +SWE/extent anomalies will evacuate huge quantities of oceanic heat poleward, and if we get BOE and the Arctic also begins being unable to evacuate its stored heat each year, all of that excess is going to go into Greenland, potentially as glacial advance begins again atop the Rockies / Himalayas.
« Last Edit: August 30, 2020, 01:08:43 AM by oren »

oren

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Re: Reglaciation speculations (bbr)
« Reply #1 on: August 30, 2020, 01:12:31 AM »
The above post was originally in response to discussion by sark in the "long range atmospheric connections" thread.
As stated recently, speculations of reglaciation are only allowed in one designated thread clearly marked - this shall be that thread from now on.
Please don't spread this discussion into other threads as that will be cause for being put again on moderation.

sark

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Re: Reglaciation speculations (bbr)
« Reply #2 on: August 30, 2020, 02:53:18 AM »
It is interesting how strongly the Himalayan Plateau and surrounding areas show up in charts this year.  First, surface air temperature anomaly.  It's been cold.

Looking at Omega in the 500mb level to stay above terrain, we still see a strong signal of subsidence there, and a wave pattern upstream.

Tropopause pressure shows a very significant raise of the tropopause height at the poles, and deep trough over the Himalayas

Finally, Sea level pressure, which is elevated high.  I do not understand this, as forecasts have often had very deep low pressure at least downstream of the Plateau.  I don't see this reflected here.  Also if air is subsiding at such a strong level, I would expect to see heating, like during a SSW.  The cold temps are there sharply at 500mb just downstream of the mountain range.

It's a curious case of mountain torques and a new circulation we've never seen before.
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Re: Reglaciation speculations (bbr)
« Reply #3 on: August 30, 2020, 03:07:05 AM »
Happy to see this thread finally happen.

This is where it belongs and in the right place it's even interesting to follow all the reasoning.

Good !

sark

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Re: Reglaciation speculations (bbr)
« Reply #4 on: August 30, 2020, 03:55:58 AM »
Ok at 700mb (7,700 to 10,500 feet (2,350 to 3,150 meters)) there's a pattern of 3 positives in a triangle with three negatives around it.  Negative omega as this tool runs it, I think has to be rising air / updraft, but does it apply in this case?  Help?

I kinda eyeballed where the northern positive anomaly June - July in Omega was located and it is the Qaidam in China. 

Whatever is going on downstream of the mountains and for some reason also over Northern China is disrupting the shortwaves in the vertical, i.e. huge whale's mouth rolling waves.  Floods at the same time?  Safe bet.

What is happening?  Is the tropopause crashing into the Himalayan Mountains?
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sark

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Re: Reglaciation speculations (bbr)
« Reply #5 on: August 30, 2020, 04:03:03 AM »
at 600mb the northern ridge disappears.  1,500 meter distance

cool
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sark

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Re: Reglaciation speculations (bbr)
« Reply #6 on: August 30, 2020, 04:06:44 AM »
I am not a scientist

sark

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Re: Reglaciation speculations (bbr)
« Reply #7 on: August 30, 2020, 04:21:25 AM »
The atmosphere building over the North Pole from some sort of June-July crash into the Himalayan mountains or just downstream or whatever

I think this is a change in global mean circulation where warm atmosphere floods to the poles at the surface and converges at the pole.  Then it goes UP

VERY COOL
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Re: Reglaciation speculations (bbr)
« Reply #8 on: August 30, 2020, 04:42:20 AM »
Geopotential height anomalies now.  Low atmospheric height descending motion that is cold and yields high sea level pressure.

Atmospheric poleward transport taking place at ground level and converging at the north pole, uplift straight from the surface to high in the stratosphere.

How do you see it?
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bbr2315

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Re: Reglaciation speculations (bbr)
« Reply #9 on: August 30, 2020, 06:36:54 AM »
The atmosphere building over the North Pole from some sort of June-July crash into the Himalayan mountains or just downstream or whatever

I think this is a change in global mean circulation where warm atmosphere floods to the poles at the surface and converges at the pole.  Then it goes UP

VERY COOL
What goes up must come down = warm atmosphere floods to poles at surface, all the rising air at the Pole causes the tropopause to descend atop the Himalayas (and Rockies etc) further? = more heat evacuating to the Pole.

I suppose the reaction would continue until the snow line falls in elevation enough to resolve the heat anomalies at the Pole?

bbr2315

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Re: Reglaciation speculations (bbr)
« Reply #10 on: August 30, 2020, 06:48:07 AM »
I wonder if there is a paradox here where the more heat is in the system the more STABLE the system is as it resolves the surplus heat relative to the base state?

I.E. imagine two polar cells sitting over North America and Eurasia, exchanging heat energy through massive bomb cyclones. The middle is snow. The periphery is snowing/melting. The tropics are probably still warm. The Arctic is actually probably still warming at this point as it begins to accumulate insolation in spring and summer. But a substantial portion of the extra heat and melting ice from Greenland and the Antarctic is snowing out atop the Rockies and the Himalayas.

And, surprisingly, the new state becomes MORE effective at evacuating heat from the Earth's surface than the old once the snow anomalies begin to spread to lower elevations. Continental albedo at low latitudes is MUCH more effective at deflecting net solar insolation on an annual basis than sea ice at high latitudes.

Why would the Earth spiral to hothouse when we still have Greenland and Antarctica? Why would the cryosphere not redistribute to where it is most effective at evacuating heat? What if the three-cell system we had was "subcritical" and we have now tipped the Earth into "criticality" ?

In a system geared to equalizing residual heat, the more heat that enters the system, THE MORE EFFECTIVE THE SYSTEM BECOMES AT EVACUATING HEAT. Science has ignored this fact.

Why does Greenland have these huge temperature drops, btw? I wonder if it is because it initially is prone to huge melt. But as the North American vortex grows in scope (more regions become inter-annually covered), perhaps Greenland abruptly goes from rapid melt to rapid regrowth? At some point, the continental cells would get so large that the Arctic ultimately WOULD turn back to sea ice, but by that point a huge portion of the continents would be, erm, uninhabitable.

Perhaps we have been overthinking things, then.

What if our climate is really just in a 0-(heat is resolved)->1-(heat accumulates)->0-(heat is resolved)->1-(heat accumulates)->0 pattern here? I suppose 0 would be snow-covered continents, 1 would be ice-covered Arctic Ocean. The transition from 0 to 1 evidently takes 5,000 years but the transition from 1 to 0 can take decades or less as the Younger Dryas indicates.

Thusly it would seem plausible that the Earth-climate system takes a very long time to resolve the accumulation of heat, but the actual event that LEADS to the resolution of surplus heat (snow-covered continents) occurs in a matter of years or a decade?

Is it so inconceivable we are in such a transition right now, or approaching it? History does not repeat but it does rhyme and humans are not exceptional despite all our consternations to the contrary.

Scientists have always been conflating correlation with causation of ice ages (i.e. Milankovitch Cycles)... does it matter if it is Milankovitch Cycles, orbital impact, or GHG release? The net result is the SAME which is why all of the theories have blinded science in general to the real truth here which is IMO illuminated in this thread (or is at least finally STARTING to come to light even though we could definitely and most likely still have a lot wrong).

Earth's ice ages aren't caused by one thing, or another. Earth's "ice ages" are actually the flip of a switch in the planet's resolution of surplus heat (and I believe it is only available WHEN ICE CAPS ARE EXTANT but I could be wrong on this point too -- in any case we are bounded by such a condition). The switch from deflecting insolation at the Pole to deflecting it across the continents results in a much more EFFICIENT resolution of heat, so paradoxically the state is entered when the planet is at its warmest, and enough surplus heat accumulates to melt the bulk of the Arctic Sea Ice.
« Last Edit: August 30, 2020, 07:08:08 AM by bbr2315 »

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Re: Reglaciation speculations (bbr)
« Reply #11 on: September 01, 2020, 11:00:33 PM »
Looks like there has been a rise in precipitation at Fort Mackenzie recently. Trend is likely inconclusive and rain has risen more rapidly than snow. Longer trend of an increase in wind speed.

https://www.worldweatheronline.com/lang/en-us/fort-mackenzie-weather-averages/quebec/ca.aspx


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Re: Reglaciation speculations (bbr)
« Reply #12 on: September 01, 2020, 11:04:39 PM »
Montreal has seen a recent uptick in rainfall and snow as well.

https://www.worldweatheronline.com/montreal-weather-averages/quebec/ca.aspx

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Re: Reglaciation speculations (bbr)
« Reply #13 on: September 02, 2020, 08:14:39 AM »
Reglaciation speculation: after >200000 years (post-cenozoic )  (after hyperthermal; post-anthropocene thermal maximum)
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