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Author Topic: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs  (Read 2243 times)

bbr2314

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Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: August 13, 2019, 11:15:21 PM »
THE THREAD HATH BEGUN!

Here are temp anomalies the last 12 months to kick things off.

I suspect we will see a worsening relative to 2018-19 as we head into 2019-20 due to the +accumulation of OHC in the Arctic / elsewhere this summer, as well as due to this year's acceleration in Greenland's melt relative to last year.

Current forecasts show falls occurring across much of the NW Rockies.



I believe today's 12z CMC is the first run where falls reach into the Lower 48 INSIDE the D10 period.


bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #1 on: August 24, 2019, 07:29:54 AM »
Il neige! Il neige beaucoup!


kassy

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #2 on: August 24, 2019, 10:32:06 AM »
OMG a total white-out on august 24th.  :o ;D

JK but this does not look like beaucoup to me but that might be because i have no idea what the actual neige baseline is for the time of the year.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #3 on: August 26, 2019, 02:42:02 AM »
Here are the four months centered on 2019's peak solar.

The only blue spots are derivative of persistent relatively low-latitude sea ice or snowcover (or both).

The question is, as we head into 2020, do the blues turn bluer and the reds turn warmer, or does everything turn warmer? I think it will be the former, although this reaction has definitely see-saw'd since we first saw it unfold after 2012.

I think that 2019's extant sea ice in Hudson Bay, the first instance since 2009 in spite of an XX% in GHGs since then, is confirmation that these negative feedbacks may locally overwhelm generalized warming (and perhaps in such a way that at a certain point the warming is simply fuel for a worsening reaction in the opposite direction that lasts for multiple years).

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #4 on: August 26, 2019, 03:00:05 AM »
Since January 1st, max temps have been running -4C (-7Fish) across the triangle of coldness between the Lakes and Hudson Bay and the Rockies. That is pretty incredible. I would bet the anomaly deepens further by 2019's end.


TerryM

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #5 on: August 27, 2019, 01:26:04 AM »
AC's still cranked up tight here between the lakes.
Terry

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #6 on: August 27, 2019, 01:35:35 AM »
In Michigan, we turned off the AC a week ago.

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #7 on: August 27, 2019, 01:48:17 AM »
Year by year comparison of Great Lakes surface temps for the date --

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/compare_years/compare_years_o.html

Full volume temps vs 2018 / vs 2017

Superior: -.1F / -.5F
Michigan: -1.0F / -2.6F
Huron: -.7F / -1.5F
Erie: -1.0F / -1.2F
Ontario: -.8F / -2.1F

Surface temps vs. 2018 / 17

Superior: -3.2F / -1.0F
Michigan: -1.2F / +1.4F
Huron: -1.8F / +.7F
Erie: -.7F / +.3F
Ontario: -2.2F / +2.1F

Volume-wise, we are much colder than recent years across the board. The surface of some lakes is a bit warmer than 2017 but I think the whole volume metrics are more relevant to what happens in autumn and how quickly we see freeze-up come winter.

The differentials in Michigan and Erie would possibly indicate that Erie will freeze up earlier than usual, and that Michigan could freeze-up much more completely than usual. Just something to keep an eye on as we head into winter.

TerryM

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #8 on: August 27, 2019, 03:47:53 AM »
In Michigan, we turned off the AC a week ago.
You southerners have everything so easy.
Terry

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #9 on: August 27, 2019, 01:38:42 PM »
The Glaciation of North America ?

It has snowed! Glaciation starts !

Hang on, the glaciation has moved from Quebec to the Northern Rockies and Alaska's North Slope.

Hang on again. A lot of the snow has melted.

click gif to start

https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current
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bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #10 on: August 29, 2019, 07:00:44 AM »
The Canuck maps show snow persisted atop the Torngats. Anyways.

00z CMC shows first real snow in Quebec by D5-6.



GFS has been showing similar things every run or two. Looks like we should see coverage pick up by early September which could yield a very cold autumn for certain regions (the triangle of coldness in particular IMO).

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #11 on: August 29, 2019, 07:03:50 AM »
The 00z CMC is preparing for most of the Upper Midwest's first frost / freeze by D10. Wow.





The GFS is not too different.



Looks like consensus for the first legitimately cold outbreak of the season with frosts, freeze, and mountain snows could be building for 9/7-9/12.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #12 on: August 30, 2019, 01:23:28 AM »
The Canuck maps show snow persisted atop the Torngats. Anyways.

As it needs to do each year if the remaining 100 or so small glaciers are to survive.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #13 on: August 30, 2019, 01:29:33 AM »
The 00z CMC is preparing for most of the Upper Midwest's first frost / freeze by D10. Wow.




Looking at this image, I see a tiny sliver of western N.D. below freezing. Did you mistype "most of the Upper Midwest's first frost?

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #14 on: August 30, 2019, 05:09:54 AM »
The 00z CMC is preparing for most of the Upper Midwest's first frost / freeze by D10. Wow.




Looking at this image, I see a tiny sliver of western N.D. below freezing. Did you mistype "most of the Upper Midwest's first frost?
It gets colder in subsequent frames and frosts also occur under 36F not 32F

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #15 on: September 01, 2019, 06:30:48 AM »
Dorian could be first major blizzard of season for Quebec, would be very early


bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #16 on: September 08, 2019, 04:28:57 AM »
Dorian was not a major blizzard, however, modeling did keep totals in elevated splotches down to New Brunswick, so I would imagine many of the highest locations in Quebec / surrounds have seen an inch or four.

The next week++ looks to include more momentum in Siberia than North America, with major totals now appearing across very wide areas of northern Russia.



I am not sure I agree with the temporary departure of most of the cold air over northeastern North America, but there is consistency in the modeling that Siberia is going to get colder than normal, and fairly snow-covered, by September 20th(ish). At the very least, the CCIN charts should start to move more substantially.


gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #17 on: September 08, 2019, 12:33:04 PM »
From Environment Canada https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

EURASIA
The snow graphs for Eurasia include the Himalayas. This makes them pretty useless for comments about the Arctic. As you can see from the first attachment the 2018-19 snowfall is still lying there in significant quantities while snow in the Eurasian Arctic is minimal.

North America
There have been 2 significant dumps of snow since Aug 1, but most has melted. The islands of the CAA are getting some snow as can be seen from the gif. (Click to start)

Next post has a couple of seasonal weather predictions.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #18 on: September 08, 2019, 12:46:46 PM »
Seasonal Weather Forecasts.

CANADA - September October & November

High confidence for above average temperatures, especially in the far north.
This very high confidence is noteworthy

Low confidence for any variation in precipitation from the average.

RUSSIA - Oct- to Dec

Average temperatures in Central and Eastern Siberia,
Below Average temperatures in Western Siberia,
Cold in lower latitudes.

Low confidence of below average precipitation along much of coastal Siberia.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #19 on: September 09, 2019, 02:19:22 PM »
Looks like winter may be coming early to high elevations of Norway this year, those totals are pretty ridiculous.


gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #20 on: September 09, 2019, 06:54:37 PM »
Dorian was not a major blizzard, however, modeling did keep totals in elevated splotches down to New Brunswick, so I would imagine many of the highest locations in Quebec / surrounds have seen an inch or four.

RAIN !!

No snow. Too much warmth left in the system?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #21 on: September 09, 2019, 06:56:18 PM »
There was definitely snow, it may not have stuck that well, but there could also have been cloud interference with the maps (IDK). It snowed in Caribou, but I can't find any news stories (it was on social media).

Shared Humanity

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #22 on: September 10, 2019, 02:02:06 AM »
Looks like winter may be coming early to high elevations of Norway this year, those totals are pretty ridiculous.



Forecast hour 240

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #23 on: September 10, 2019, 05:27:47 AM »
Looks like winter may be coming early to high elevations of Norway this year, those totals are pretty ridiculous.



Forecast hour 240
That is through 240, i.e., D1-10, not D10.

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #24 on: September 10, 2019, 01:03:59 PM »
It has snowed somewhat on coastal Norway. A succession of Atlantic Lows charging up the Norwegian Sea. Remains of Dorian in a couple of days and the remnants of Gabrielle a day or 2 later. But they have residual warmth in them - more rain than snow?

ElDorado has some nice images
https://www.eldoradoweather.com/climate/world-maps/world-snow-ice-cover.html

And this site has chance of snow in Europe forecasts - says only bits and pieces in the next few days.
https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/forecastmaps?LANG=en&UP=0&R=0&MORE=1&MAPS=snw&CONT=euro&LAND=__&ZEIT=201909110600


It is Autumn, the season of equinoxial gales (also recorded in several novels about Alaska in the late 19th century), so Maritime regions are going to get a bit wet, and if cold enough, a dump of snow.

But so far nowt to get excited about.
_______________________________________________________________
speculation and a bit off-topic: If the reemergence of the North Pacific Warm warm blob comes to pass, the very strong equinoxial gales in the North Pacific that are usual at this time of year could shove a load of warmth into the Arctic via the Bering Strait. Too late for melting, but plenty enough to slow refreezing?
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Niall Dollard

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #25 on: September 12, 2019, 12:46:42 AM »
September is usually the snowiest month at Alert, Canada and snowfall there has picked up in the last day or so.

Earlier today there was 17cm of lying snow.

Edit: snow is back today in Norilsk Russia. Temps just below zero and there was 10mm (rainfall equivalent) of snow
« Last Edit: September 12, 2019, 01:12:48 AM by Niall Dollard »

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #26 on: September 14, 2019, 12:45:17 PM »
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current :- 12 September

Early days yet.

A slowish start to the season in North America, snow cover extent at average.

An early blob of new snow on the Central Siberian coast (in the Yenisey(?) river valley). The Himalayas and Tibet is where excess snow has lain for over a year.

In a previous post I showed the Canadian forecast for above to very much above average temperatures from Sept to Nov, especially in the far north of Canada. We will see.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #27 on: September 15, 2019, 12:15:23 PM »
The snow in Central Siberia has increased, and extent is very much above average.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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