Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs

[bbr2314]

THE THREAD HATH BEGUN!

Here are temp anomalies the last 12 months to kick things off.

I suspect we will see a worsening relative to 2018-19 as we head into 2019-20 due to the +accumulation of OHC in the Arctic / elsewhere this summer, as well as due to this year's acceleration in Greenland's melt relative to last year.

Current forecasts show falls occurring across much of the NW Rockies.



I believe today's 12z CMC is the first run where falls reach into the Lower 48 INSIDE the D10 period.

[bbr2314]

Il neige! Il neige beaucoup!

[kassy]

OMG a total white-out on august 24th. 

JK but this does not look like beaucoup to me but that might be because i have no idea what the actual neige baseline is for the time of the year.

[bbr2314]

Here are the four months centered on 2019's peak solar.

The only blue spots are derivative of persistent relatively low-latitude sea ice or snowcover (or both).

The question is, as we head into 2020, do the blues turn bluer and the reds turn warmer, or does everything turn warmer? I think it will be the former, although this reaction has definitely see-saw'd since we first saw it unfold after 2012.

I think that 2019's extant sea ice in Hudson Bay, the first instance since 2009 in spite of an XX% in GHGs since then, is confirmation that these negative feedbacks may locally overwhelm generalized warming (and perhaps in such a way that at a certain point the warming is simply fuel for a worsening reaction in the opposite direction that lasts for multiple years).

[bbr2314]

Since January 1st, max temps have been running -4C (-7Fish) across the triangle of coldness between the Lakes and Hudson Bay and the Rockies. That is pretty incredible. I would bet the anomaly deepens further by 2019's end.

[TerryM]

AC's still cranked up tight here between the lakes.
Terry

[Klondike Kat]

In Michigan, we turned off the AC a week ago.

[bbr2314]

Year by year comparison of Great Lakes surface temps for the date --

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/compare_years/compare_years_o.html

Full volume temps vs 2018 / vs 2017

Superior: -.1F / -.5F
Michigan: -1.0F / -2.6F
Huron: -.7F / -1.5F
Erie: -1.0F / -1.2F
Ontario: -.8F / -2.1F

Surface temps vs. 2018 / 17

Superior: -3.2F / -1.0F
Michigan: -1.2F / +1.4F
Huron: -1.8F / +.7F
Erie: -.7F / +.3F
Ontario: -2.2F / +2.1F

Volume-wise, we are much colder than recent years across the board. The surface of some lakes is a bit warmer than 2017 but I think the whole volume metrics are more relevant to what happens in autumn and how quickly we see freeze-up come winter.

The differentials in Michigan and Erie would possibly indicate that Erie will freeze up earlier than usual, and that Michigan could freeze-up much more completely than usual. Just something to keep an eye on as we head into winter.

[TerryM]

In Michigan, we turned off the AC a week ago.

You southerners have everything so easy.
Terry

[gerontocrat]

The Glaciation of North America ?

It has snowed! Glaciation starts !

Hang on, the glaciation has moved from Quebec to the Northern Rockies and Alaska's North Slope.

Hang on again. A lot of the snow has melted.

click gif to start

https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

[bbr2314]

The Canuck maps show snow persisted atop the Torngats. Anyways.

00z CMC shows first real snow in Quebec by D5-6.



GFS has been showing similar things every run or two. Looks like we should see coverage pick up by early September which could yield a very cold autumn for certain regions (the triangle of coldness in particular IMO).

[bbr2314]

The 00z CMC is preparing for most of the Upper Midwest's first frost / freeze by D10. Wow.





The GFS is not too different.



Looks like consensus for the first legitimately cold outbreak of the season with frosts, freeze, and mountain snows could be building for 9/7-9/12.

[Shared Humanity]

The Canuck maps show snow persisted atop the Torngats. Anyways.

As it needs to do each year if the remaining 100 or so small glaciers are to survive.

[Shared Humanity]

The 00z CMC is preparing for most of the Upper Midwest's first frost / freeze by D10. Wow.

Looking at this image, I see a tiny sliver of western N.D. below freezing. Did you mistype "most of the Upper Midwest's first frost?

[bbr2314]

The 00z CMC is preparing for most of the Upper Midwest's first frost / freeze by D10. Wow.

Looking at this image, I see a tiny sliver of western N.D. below freezing. Did you mistype "most of the Upper Midwest's first frost?

It gets colder in subsequent frames and frosts also occur under 36F not 32F

[bbr2314]

Dorian could be first major blizzard of season for Quebec, would be very early

[bbr2314]

Dorian was not a major blizzard, however, modeling did keep totals in elevated splotches down to New Brunswick, so I would imagine many of the highest locations in Quebec / surrounds have seen an inch or four.

The next week++ looks to include more momentum in Siberia than North America, with major totals now appearing across very wide areas of northern Russia.



I am not sure I agree with the temporary departure of most of the cold air over northeastern North America, but there is consistency in the modeling that Siberia is going to get colder than normal, and fairly snow-covered, by September 20th(ish). At the very least, the CCIN charts should start to move more substantially.

[gerontocrat]

From Environment Canada https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

EURASIA
The snow graphs for Eurasia include the Himalayas. This makes them pretty useless for comments about the Arctic. As you can see from the first attachment the 2018-19 snowfall is still lying there in significant quantities while snow in the Eurasian Arctic is minimal.

North America
There have been 2 significant dumps of snow since Aug 1, but most has melted. The islands of the CAA are getting some snow as can be seen from the gif. (Click to start)

Next post has a couple of seasonal weather predictions.

[gerontocrat]

Seasonal Weather Forecasts.

CANADA - September October & November

High confidence for above average temperatures, especially in the far north.
This very high confidence is noteworthy

Low confidence for any variation in precipitation from the average.

RUSSIA - Oct- to Dec

Average temperatures in Central and Eastern Siberia,
Below Average temperatures in Western Siberia,
Cold in lower latitudes.

Low confidence of below average precipitation along much of coastal Siberia.

[bbr2314]

Looks like winter may be coming early to high elevations of Norway this year, those totals are pretty ridiculous.

[gerontocrat]

Dorian was not a major blizzard, however, modeling did keep totals in elevated splotches down to New Brunswick, so I would imagine many of the highest locations in Quebec / surrounds have seen an inch or four.

RAIN !!

No snow. Too much warmth left in the system?

[bbr2314]

There was definitely snow, it may not have stuck that well, but there could also have been cloud interference with the maps (IDK). It snowed in Caribou, but I can't find any news stories (it was on social media).

[Shared Humanity]

Looks like winter may be coming early to high elevations of Norway this year, those totals are pretty ridiculous.

Forecast hour 240

[bbr2314]

Looks like winter may be coming early to high elevations of Norway this year, those totals are pretty ridiculous.

Forecast hour 240

That is through 240, i.e., D1-10, not D10.

[gerontocrat]

It has snowed somewhat on coastal Norway. A succession of Atlantic Lows charging up the Norwegian Sea. Remains of Dorian in a couple of days and the remnants of Gabrielle a day or 2 later. But they have residual warmth in them - more rain than snow?

ElDorado has some nice images
https://www.eldoradoweather.com/climate/world-maps/world-snow-ice-cover.html

And this site has chance of snow in Europe forecasts - says only bits and pieces in the next few days.
https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/forecastmaps?LANG=en&UP=0&R=0&MORE=1&MAPS=snw&CONT=euro&LAND=__&ZEIT=201909110600


It is Autumn, the season of equinoxial gales (also recorded in several novels about Alaska in the late 19th century), so Maritime regions are going to get a bit wet, and if cold enough, a dump of snow.

But so far nowt to get excited about.
_______________________________________________________________
speculation and a bit off-topic: If the reemergence of the North Pacific Warm warm blob comes to pass, the very strong equinoxial gales in the North Pacific that are usual at this time of year could shove a load of warmth into the Arctic via the Bering Strait. Too late for melting, but plenty enough to slow refreezing?

[Niall Dollard]

September is usually the snowiest month at Alert, Canada and snowfall there has picked up in the last day or so.

Earlier today there was 17cm of lying snow.

Edit: snow is back today in Norilsk Russia. Temps just below zero and there was 10mm (rainfall equivalent) of snow

[gerontocrat]

https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current :- 12 September

Early days yet.

A slowish start to the season in North America, snow cover extent at average.

An early blob of new snow on the Central Siberian coast (in the Yenisey(?) river valley). The Himalayas and Tibet is where excess snow has lain for over a year.

In a previous post I showed the Canadian forecast for above to very much above average temperatures from Sept to Nov, especially in the far north of Canada. We will see.

[gerontocrat]

The snow in Central Siberia has increased, and extent is very much above average.

[bbr2314]

Indeed it has, and again last night. I think by 10/1 we will be well above normal in Eurasia, by 10/10 we will be well above normal in North America as well. (we are well above normal in Eurasia already, but will probably diverge even more with normal over the next two weeks, with forecasts showing major snows across most of Siberia).



This is going to have very interesting implications for the sea ice. We are going to have the most snowcover sandwiched (latitudinally) under open Arctic Ocean in the satellite record. This should act to advect an unprecedented amount of oceanic heat into the Arctic in sync with worsening +500MB anomalies centered overtop the Arctic. In short: snowcover growth and accumulation this year is, IMO, likely to be quite explosive.

[RoxTheGeologist]

Hmm... Won't snow act to trap heat in the ground? I think the best analogy is when you burn yourself. The first thing you want to do is run lots of cold water over the burn.

Heat flow of a spike on the surface (say summer insolation) is best reduced by applying lots of cold to the the surface as quickly and for as long as possible. Having a nice snow cover reduces the heat loss dramatically compared to emissive heat loss from the ground itself. You have to conduct that heat through all those nice insulating air bubbles in the snow rather than just through a couple of meters of soggy ground.

Of course it depends on the timing, but I think there would be a good thermodynamic argument that deep and early snow cover is really bad for permafrost and sea ice retention. Snow on sea ice effectively reduces the FDDs buy elevating the temperature of the ice compared to having no snow. That snow cover persisting into the high insolation months has the opposite effect. Raising albedo when the sun should be warming the ground has the opposite effect.

As the Earth warms, perhaps we will go through a phase of increased snowfall as the amount of water in the atmosphere increases, but that snow will melt out faster in the spring. The worst of both worlds for ice and permafrost.

[bbr2314]

Hmm... Won't snow act to trap heat in the ground? I think the best analogy is when you burn yourself. The first thing you want to do is run lots of cold water over the burn.

Heat flow of a spike on the surface (say summer insolation) is best reduced by applying lots of cold to the the surface as quickly and for as long as possible. Having a nice snow cover reduces the heat loss dramatically compared to emissive heat loss from the ground itself. You have to conduct that heat through all those nice insulating air bubbles in the snow rather than just through a couple of meters of soggy ground.

Of course it depends on the timing, but I think there would be a good thermodynamic argument that deep and early snow cover is really bad for permafrost and sea ice retention. Snow on sea ice effectively reduces the FDDs buy elevating the temperature of the ice compared to having no snow. That snow cover persisting into the high insolation months has the opposite effect. Raising albedo when the sun should be warming the ground has the opposite effect.

As the Earth warms, perhaps we will go through a phase of increased snowfall as the amount of water in the atmosphere increases, but that snow will melt out faster in the spring. The worst of both worlds for ice and permafrost.

I think it IS trapping heat in the ground, but this is only happening in areas that have persistently warm summers, I.E., Siberia. Siberia's anomalies year over year have become increasingly HOT.

However, in parts of Canada, summertime anomalies are actually below recent normals. This would IMO have the inverse impact, of resulting in increasing / expanding permafrost zones. Of course, Siberia is much larger than Canada, but the seesaw is (IMO) occurring in opposite directions in both of these areas (and the warmer Siberia gets, the colder Canada becomes).

[Shared Humanity]

...I think there would be a good thermodynamic argument that deep and early snow cover is really bad for permafrost...

There are numerous studies that have confirmed this. The increase in early snowfall across the NH is a disaster for permafrost.

[Shared Humanity]

As the Earth warms, perhaps we will go through a phase of increased snowfall as the amount of water in the atmosphere increases, but that snow will melt out faster in the spring. The worst of both worlds for ice and permafrost.

Exactly what we are seeing.

[gerontocrat]

As the Earth warms, perhaps we will go through a phase of increased snowfall as the amount of water in the atmosphere increases, but that snow will melt out faster in the spring. The worst of both worlds for ice and permafrost.

Exactly what we are seeing.

The last climate change document I read from Canada forecast much less snow in Southern Canada, and later snow start, earlier melt, and overall less snow north of 55 degrees as was the long-term trend to 2015.

A warming climate must mean a snow line moving north and into higher altitudes, even though there will be more water in the atmosphere. Either way, I think it means nothing good for permafrost.

Another study, which I can't find, talked about a 1.5 degrees AGW meaning a long-term reduction in N. Hemisphere permafrost from over 16 million km2 to around 13 million Km2.

Count the ways in which we are screwed.

[gerontocrat]

https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

3 weeks into this year's snow season, so here are some graphs etc.

The season is very much as average. Even in years with very high snow amounts, this happened later.

Once again, if not for a lot of snow from last season in the Himalayas and Tibet that did not melt , Eurasia snow would be much less.

Attached is a gif of North America snowfall to add interest to a boring post. One or two ays missing. Click to start.

[Alexander555]

The jet steam is moving. https://watchers.news/2019/09/26/historic-early-season-snowstorm-montana-rockies/

[Shared Humanity]

Has anyone seen bbr2314. I'm a little worried about him.

[blumenkraft]

Yep, he posted in the freezing season thread recently >>

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2888.msg230812.html#msg230812

[bbr2314]

Has anyone seen bbr2314. I'm a little worried about him.

I <3 you too 

[bbr2314]

The greens are finally growing in both continents.



It looks like snowcover is at about 7M KM^2 across the NHEM. Within the next week its extent should be about double that of the sea ice.

In a situation where snowcover expands more rapidly than sea ice, and can cover a much wider area much faster to much greater albedo differential, the Daisy Experiment explains why land snowcover compensates for blue ocean in the Arctic when surface ice caps are still extant to sufficient volume (which they are).

You can say Milankovitch Cycles 10 times over and they still can't properly account for how ice ages actually occur. I think this is the simplest explanation and it is unfolding before our eyes. Yay!

[bbr2314]

Away we go!

[gerontocrat]

One dump of snow a New Ice Age doth not make.

It blows hot & cold at this time of year. (Max & Min forecast temps attached)
The battle between snowfall and melt is underway.

Gif of snow season to date also attached - click to play (it plays three times until clicked again)

[gerontocrat]

In a situation where snowcover expands more rapidly than sea ice, and can cover a much wider area much faster to much greater albedo differential, the Daisy Experiment explains why land snowcover compensates for blue ocean in the Arctic when surface ice caps are still extant to sufficient volume (which they are).

You can say Milankovitch Cycles 10 times over and they still can't properly account for how ice ages actually occur. I think this is the simplest explanation and it is unfolding before our eyes. Yay!

For those who want a good intro to Milankovitch Cycles you can't do better than to go to ....
https://phys.org/news/2016-12-ice-ages-linked-earth-orbitbut.html
Ice ages have been linked to the Earth's wobbly orbit—but when is the next one?

I'm inclined to go along with the author's final remarks...

One idea is that small increases in greenhouse gases due to the expansion of agriculture that started 8,000 years ago have in fact delayed the next ice age. What's more, if we continue emitting greenhouse gases at the same rate, we might have put off the next ice age for at least half a million years.

If we have merely delayed the next ice age, we will still be in the Quaternary Period – the last 2.58m years defined by the ice age cycles. But if we have stopped the ice ages, humans will have caused a much greater change and so have entered the Anthropocene period as some argue. If I had to put money on it, I'd say the Earth has experienced its last ice age for a very, very long time.

Meanwhile,  Environment Canada & the NOAA-CPC have issued their seasonal forecasts for Oct-Dec. Warm
The Russian HMC have issued their forecast for Nov19 to Jan20 - High Arctic -COLD


We will see.
 

[gerontocrat]

Whoops - forgot USA - but who cares what happens south of 49 North?

[bbr2314]

One dump of snow a New Ice Age doth not make.

It blows hot & cold at this time of year. (Max & Min forecast temps attached)
The battle between snowfall and melt is underway.

Gif of snow season to date also attached - click to play (it plays three times until clicked again)

You are correct. But that is not what we have had. We have had tons of snow at all times of year resulting in very much below normal temperatures for the "triangle of coldness" centered on Montana for three years running, worsening year over year.

Will it relent at some point? Probably. But how long until it happens again, if it does not happen this time, and what happens when it is -10F on the year instead of -5F? At that point the snow will be falling through July and August with much more depth and coverage, and the scope of negatives has the potential to increase in breadth dramatically. The longer these anomalies persist into the spring and summer the more negative they are (when considering the continents). The same can be said for re-appearance of snowcover earlier than normal in autumn.

In the Nebraska climate record maps (limited back to 2003) 2018+2019 are by far the coldest couplet in this region. 2008-09 are the next closest. In that situation, the cold lingered into 2010 and 2011, though less severely, before relenting majorly in 2012. I think the problem is that 2012 was a threshold in its own right and we may no longer be able to see such an event due to how much the snowfall is now compensating for the sea ice.

[bbr2314]

L-oh-L

[gerontocrat]

Below is a complete copy of a post by AbruptSLR, from which I quote

.....50–60% increase in Arctic precipitation over the 21st century. The additional precipitation is diagnosed to fall primarily as rain,..............

But then again, Nebraska isn't in the Arctic.
__________________________________________________________
ps:
North America Snow Cover Extent back down to average (due to melt),
Eurasia Snow Cover Extent still going up strongly,

__________________________________________________________
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2205.msg231856.html#msg231856

Quote from: AbruptSLR on October 03, 2019, 10:55:10 PM
…
Edit: I note that consensus models project that with continuing global warming, rainfall will increase in the Arctic in coming decades; which will not only impact: Arctic sea ice extent, potential release of excess freshwater from the Arctic Ocean, glacial ice, but also permafrost (which will not only increase CO2 emissions, but also methane emissions from thermal karst lakes).

Imagine what Bintanja (2018) would project if it had used a model with ECS greater than 5C:

R. Bintanja (2018), "The impact of Arctic warming on increased rainfall", Scientific Reports,  8, Article number: 16001, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-34450-3

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-34450-3

Abstract: "The Arctic region is warming two to three times faster than the global mean, intensifying the hydrological cycle in the high north. Both enhanced regional evaporation and poleward moisture transport contribute to a 50–60% increase in Arctic precipitation over the 21st century. The additional precipitation is diagnosed to fall primarily as rain, but the physical and dynamical constraints governing the transition to a rain-dominated Arctic are unknown. Here we use actual precipitation, snowfall, rainfall output of 37 global climate models in standardised 21st-century simulations to demonstrate that, on average, the main contributor to additional Arctic (70–90°N) rainfall is local warming (~70%), whereas non-local (thermo)dynamical processes associated with precipitation changes contribute only 30%. Surprisingly, the effect of local warming peaks in the frigid high Arctic, where modest summer temperature changes exert a much larger effect on rainfall changes than strong wintertime warming. This counterintuitive seasonality exhibits steep geographical gradients, however, governed by non-linear changes in the temperature-dependent snowfall fraction, thereby obscuring regional-scale attribution of enhanced Arctic rainfall to climate warming. Detailed knowledge of the underlying causes behind Arctic snow/rainfall changes will contribute to more accurate assessments of the (possibly irreversible) impacts on hydrology/run-off, permafrost thawing, ecosystems, sea ice retreat, and glacier melt."

[bbr2314]

Blizzard #2 getting ready to bear down on Montana and Upper Plains

[bbr2314]

17 days earlier than the earliest on record, set almost one century ago... when CO2 was at approximately 305PPM... over 100PPM or only 75% of today's values.

Maybe it is time to acknowledge that CO2 is an albedo accelerant when ice caps are still extant, and that it is albedo which primarily drives our climate, a factor that is only modulated by GHG. And GHG are going to flip land albedo to "white daisies" as oceans heat up, more moisture becomes available, and the sea ice dwindles. The only way to maintain equilibrium is to compensate with more snowfall on land. This is already happening. 

Equilibrium in the system is maintained by LAND albedo flux much more easily than oceanic albedo flux. In short, this means more "white daisies" as the oceanic heat load worsens alongside the continuous rise of GHGs.

Just wait til it keeps snowing into July, then August, and we get a year without a summer at all in these regions. At that point the only thing left to do will be to LOL.

[Shared Humanity]

Just wait til it keeps snowing into July, then August, and we get a year without a summer at all in these regions. At that point the only thing left to do will be to LOL.

I like this thread and am absolutely certain that the trend towards increased NH snow cover in the fall is directly due to changes driven by AGW. More stretches of open water, increase in atmospheric water content and a loopy jet stream that allows for Arctic air intrusions into the lower latitudes are all contributing factors. Never the less, despite these large positive snow anomalies in the fall and early winter, we are still seeing large negative snow anomalies in the spring and summer due to the much warmer temperatures rapidly melting all of this snow earlier and earlier in the spring.

When you insert comments like the one above, you actually undermine the very real expertise that you have when evaluating this new phenomena which makes this thread less valuable as a result. Your contributions here are valuable and I have made it a regular habit to visit. Perhaps we should wait for evidence that snow is persisting into the late spring and summer before we declare the beginning of the new ice age.