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Author Topic: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs  (Read 22437 times)

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #150 on: April 08, 2020, 10:39:00 AM »
Nearly 3 weeks after the Spring Equinox, and winter just will not let go, especially in North America. Nevertheless, the point at which warmth is defeating cold this year has been reached.

https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current Snow Cover Extent and Mass as at 7 April 2020

North America

North America Snow Cover Extent (SCE) - it snows, it melts, its snows now it melts more than it snows..
Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) remains very high, but th decrease has started.

Eurasia
The snow drought in much of Europe remains impressive, in Asia not so much.
SCE & SWE definitely reducing.
________________________________________________
ps: Snowfall on Greenland (SMB) at this moment in time remains significantly below average.
________________________________________
pps Spring Has Sprung....
Quote
When in April the sweet showers fall
That pierce March's drought to the root and all
And bathed every vein in liquor that has power
To generate therein and sire the flower;

When Zephyr also has with his sweet breath,
Filled again, in every holt and heath,
The tender shoots and leaves, and the young sun
His half-course in the sign of the Ram has run,
And many little birds make melody
That sleep through all the night with open eye
(So Nature pricks them on to ramp and rage)
Then folk do long to go on pilgrimage...
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Sebastian Jones

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #151 on: April 08, 2020, 06:33:51 PM »
I much prefer the it thus:
"When April with its showers sweet
The drought of March has pierced to the root
etc"
It better captures the middle English rhythms, IMHO.

Back to snow...
Here in the Yukon, we are at 150% SWE across most of the territory.
The melt has not even begun yet- which is pretty late.
The later it melts, the fast it goes.
Watch for wild and wet breakups!

Phoenix

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #152 on: April 09, 2020, 11:41:04 PM »
These are some very interesting charts Gerontocrat. The extra 600 km3 in snow water content in N. America might deserve some recognition as an extreme precipitation event lasting over an entire season.

For comparison, Hurricane Harvey dumped about 120 km3 of rain in one concentrated event and my math tells me that 600 km3 corresponds to ~ 1.6mm of global sea level rise. It's a lot of water.

Are there historical charts of NA Snow water content which tell us if this was an exceptional winter?


gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #153 on: April 12, 2020, 02:59:59 PM »
Are there historical charts of NA Snow water content which tell us if this was an exceptional winter?
I have yet to find historical data on SWE - SCE is easy to find - Rutgers Snow Lab et al.

If anybody fnds it - please, pretty please.....
____________________________________________
It is 3 weeks after the Spring Equinox, and winter just will not let go, especially in North America. Nevertheless, the point at which warmth is defeating cold this year has been reached.

https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current Snow Cover Extent and Mass as at 11 April 2020

North America


North America Snow Cover Extent (SCE) - it snows, it melts, it snows, now it melts more than it snows..
Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) remains very high, but the decrease has started.

Eurasia
The snow drought in much of Europe has nearly ended, simply because (apart from Norway etc) there is almost no snow expected, nor is there not a lot left.

In Asia both SCE and SWE declining strongly, though SWE still very much above average..

________________________________________________
ps: Snowfall on Greenland (SMB) at this moment in time remains significantly below average.
________________________________________
pps Spring Has Sprung....

Sound the Flute!
Now it's mute.
Birds delight
Day and Night.
Nightingale
In the dale
Lark in Sky
Merrily
Merrily Merrily to welcome in the Year.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

The Walrus

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #154 on: April 12, 2020, 04:10:23 PM »
Yes, NA continues to resist spring.  Today’s Easter snow storm will extend the line further above average, and the cold temperatures behind will cause much snow to remain throughout the week.

wdmn

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #155 on: April 12, 2020, 06:44:14 PM »
We've had good melt here on the Eastern shore of Lake Superior after a pretty good snow pack formed this winter (lots of ice layers in it), but we're expecting 20-25cm here tomorrow and up to 50cm elsewhere in the region. Alas... the shovelling is not done.

Freegrass

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #156 on: April 13, 2020, 10:10:50 PM »
Oren asked me to move this discussion over here from the melting thread. So here it goes.

I don't get it. How can this scale be in cm? Shouldn't that be decimeter? 72 cm is less than a meter. 70 dm is 7m.

Snow is rarely very thick in flat areas without tree cover. The wind tends to blow it away, but of course there can be very deep accumulations where an obstruction gives some shelter.

The very deepest even snow layer I ever saw was about 2 m, covering a flat valley floor perhaps 2 or 3 km wide. The surrounding mountains were mostsly windswept and bare, so averaging over the entire area would probably be well under 1m.
Well that's why I find it weird that the scale only goes to 72 cm, when there are clearly places with a lot more snow than that. I understand that snow can get blown away, but 1 or 2 cm of snow is nothing. That's 1 hour or less of snow. Surely there must be more?

But I guess the people who made that site must know what they are doing. I just find it odd... Can we say that Siberia is like a desert? With very little precipitation? Is that why I'm understanding snow cover in Siberia and the Arctic wrong?
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oren

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #157 on: April 13, 2020, 10:53:00 PM »
I am far from being an expert on snow but here are a couple of links showing actual snow depth in Tiksi (Laptev coast) and Pevek (ESS coast). It's far lower than intuition would tell you about Siberia. In Pevek snow depth decreased from 10-15cm to 0 over the last month, despite max temps never reaching above zero. In Tiksi depth actually increase by a few cm recently when temps edged near and above zero.

Tiksi:
https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ord=REV&ndays=50&ind=21824

Pevek:
https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ord=REV&ndays=50&ind=25051

On the other hand, some random location in Russia (Lensk) is showing much more snow at 47cm.
https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=24923&ano=2020&mes=4&day=13&hora=18&min=0&ndays=30

Browse the following map, zoom to regions, click on random stations and compare them to the map you asked about. Be sure to check altitude to avoid mountains.
https://www.ogimet.com/gsynop_nav.phtml.en

Freegrass

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #158 on: April 13, 2020, 11:10:34 PM »
Browse the following map, zoom to regions, click on random stations and compare them to the map you asked about. Be sure to check altitude to avoid mountains.
https://www.ogimet.com/gsynop_nav.phtml.en
Thanks Oren! I made it easy for myself, and just checked the snow cover on the ice, and that is indeed exactly the same as on the Reanalyzer image I posted. 20 cm...

So I guess it's probably correct to say that Siberia is a desert in winter time? And all that snow you see in video's of Siberia is just horizontal, blown away snow?

Edit: I did find some places with more snow. Like Brohovo with 120cm, and a few more. But most places have very little snow. I'm amazed! Thank you for that link!
« Last Edit: April 13, 2020, 11:39:29 PM by Freegrass »
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be cause

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #159 on: April 14, 2020, 12:13:33 AM »
Sublimation can be pretty effective in the Siberian and Arctic winter too .. b.c.
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binntho

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #160 on: April 14, 2020, 06:18:07 AM »
My experience of snow in Iceland is this: It may snow a lot but if there is any wind at all (which is most ofthe time), the snow gets blown about before settling down and in some cases simply disappearing out over the ocean.

In a snow storm, all the roads close but once reopened, they will need to be constantly cleared for several days while all the snow is still blowing around. Eventually most of the snow "disappears" (blown out over the ocean?) and things settle down.

I used to go skiing in winter, mostly long-run skiing, and even after long periods of lots of snow the average snow cover would be from a few tens of centimetres of snow accumulated in dips and hollows, with bare ground inbetween. And and this part of Iceland is definitely not a desert, recieving upwards of 1000 mm of precipitation every year

In Siberia, the snow can't just "disappear" unless it blows far enough south to simply melt. But average precipiation is very low in many areas, as low as 150 mm per year, so it is easy for me to visualize a tundra where every bump, hillock and tuft of grass is mostly free of snow, with a few centimetres lying inbetween.

If so, the area would be less than totally white in satellite images.  The image posted by Pearscot here shows large areas of northern Greenland with a distinctly yellow brown hue. This is probably exactly the sort of thing I visualize for Siberia.

My Ethiopian internet connection doesn't really allow for satellite image browsing, but I had a (slow) look at yesterdays Worldview and saw what I remember seeing regularly: Most of the "snow-covered" parts of Siberia look deciedly off-color except for maybe a 50-100 km stretch along the coast.

So this white coastal area matches pretty well up with the purplish to orange colors on the snow depth map - i.e. somwhere between 12 and 36 cm. on average. My guess is that snow from further south blows into this area and settles down, Looking at the satellite imagery in Google Maps the same areas seem decidedly flattish, and most of them get very little if any sunlight during the winter months.
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Pavel

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #161 on: April 14, 2020, 07:14:11 AM »
Significant snow loss is expected on the Barents, Kara and Laptev coasts. The Taimyr peninsula snow will start to melt at least one month earlier than usual, much worse than in 2012

oren

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #162 on: April 14, 2020, 07:15:49 AM »
I get the feeling GFS is underestimating snow depth in that region. ECMWF is showing much higher depths, assuming I am reading this correctly. Beats me how such a difference is possible, as there are plenty of weather stations measuring actual snow depth.
Note the scales for each model are different.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/irkutsk/snow-depth/20200414-0600z.html
https://weather.us/model-charts/standard/irkutsk/snow-depth/20200414-0600z.html

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/sakha/snow-depth/20200414-0600z.html
https://weather.us/model-charts/standard/sakha/snow-depth/20200414-0600z.html

Freegrass

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #163 on: April 14, 2020, 09:16:01 AM »
In Siberia, the snow can't just "disappear" unless it blows far enough south to simply melt. But average precipitation is very low in many areas, as low as 150 mm per year, so it is easy for me to visualize a tundra where every bump, hillock and tuft of grass is mostly free of snow, with a few centimetres lying in between.
Sublimation can be pretty effective in the Siberian and Arctic winter too .. b.c.
CHICKEN! And more particularly; The chicken fillet that I left for too long in the freezer. When I open the plastic container, the chicken will be all dried out, and the moisture from the chicken will be stuck on the sides of the container in beautiful crystals. So basically the chicken freezedries, and for some reason that ice moves from the chicken to the container, without wind.

My understanding of this was that  the water is squeezed out of the chicken because ice expands. But I'm sure that some of that is some form of sublimation?

Quote
Can't sublimate without the heat

Without the addition of energy (heat) to the process, ice would not sublimate into vapor. That is where sunlight plays a large role in the natural world. Water has a physical property called the "heat of vaporization," which is the amount of heat required to vaporize water. If you want an exact amount of heat, the heat of vaporization of water is 540 calories/gram, or 2,260 kilojoules/kilogram. That is a lot more energy than is needed to convert water to ice (the latent heat of fusion), which is 80 calories/gram. And, it is also about five times the energy needed for heating water from the freezing point to the boiling point. In summary, energy is needed for the sublimation of ice to vapor to occur, and most of the energy is needed in the vaporization phase. A cubic centimeter (1 gram) of water in ice form requires 80 calories to melt, 100 calories to rise to boiling point, and another 540 calories to vaporize, a total of 720 calories. Sublimation requires the same energy input, but bypasses the liquid phase.

https://www.usgs.gov/special-topic/water-science-school/science/sublimation-and-water-cycle?qt-science_center_objects=0#qt-science_center_objects

There's no sun in my freezer...  :-\

I need to do a lot more research on this, and I will! Because this is interesting! Here's how I see it now in my very own simplistic way...

First of all, there is not a lot of moisture in cold air. So yes, the Arctic is a little like a desert. That's what they call Antarctica right? A desert?

The moisture that does get in, turns into very small ice crystals. I need to forget about snow in Europe. That is "wet and sticky snow". Ice crystals in the Arctic are totally different. Much smaller, and they won't make a sticky snow layer like I know from European snow, right?

So what we got here are small crystals that will be picked up easily by the wind, and get transported over long distances. Some of this "snow dust" might actually go back up into the atmosphere and jetstream I presume?

And when they are blown back into the air, those crystals bang together and become even smaller, and lighter?

I'm understanding now why that scale was in centimeters. I also understand now that I'm reminded that conventional thinking doesn't always apply in the Arctic...

I'll definitely be studying more on this! I love the weirdness of nature...  ;D

Thank you!
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blumenkraft

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #164 on: April 14, 2020, 09:27:43 AM »
The ice crystals on your chicken emerge due to you opening the freezer door once in a while and letting warm moist air in which then freezes when you close the door. I think this is another phenomenon, Freegrass.
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Freegrass

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #165 on: April 14, 2020, 09:33:45 AM »
The ice crystals on your chicken emerge due to you opening the freezer door once in a while and letting warm moist air in which then freezes when you close the door. I think this is another phenomenon, Freegrass.
No, that's something else. That doesn't explain why my chicken in a sealed container is drying out. The ice crystals in the closed container do come from the chicken, not from opening the door and letting moisture in.

Edit:
Quote
Freeze drying, also known as lyophilisation or cryodesiccation, is a low temperature dehydration process that involves freezing the product, lowering pressure, then removing the ice by sublimation.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freeze-drying

EDIT: I moved this discussion to the newbie thread.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3060.0.html
« Last Edit: April 15, 2020, 11:57:50 AM by Freegrass »
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oren

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #166 on: April 14, 2020, 10:35:53 AM »
Freegrass, the chicken is best taken elsewhere.  Google and Wikipedia are your friends, the forum is not a solution for every question.

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #167 on: April 14, 2020, 07:10:25 PM »
Freegrass, the chicken is best taken elsewhere.  Google and Wikipedia are your friends, the forum is not a solution for every question.

Sounds like a question for the Kitchen Chef.

I mean, I have heard of off topic but WTH.

oren

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #168 on: April 14, 2020, 07:13:31 PM »
The chicken started as a useful analogy but then it took on a life of its own.
It's already been sorted.

oren

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #169 on: April 14, 2020, 07:16:00 PM »
Can anyone with expertise  shed light on the vast apparent difference between GFS and ECMWF snow depth maps? Do they really contradict one another? Does this happen in North America as well? Which one of them is right?

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #170 on: April 16, 2020, 10:59:37 PM »
It is getting on towards 4 weeks after the Spring Equinox, and winter just will not let go, especially in North America. Nevertheless, the point at which warmth is defeating cold this year has been reached.

https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current Snow Cover Extent and Mass as at 15 April 2020

North America


An interesting contrast on display.

North America Snow Cover Extent (SCE) - it snowed, a vast swathe of thin new snow in the Central USA. (Already starting to melt).

But at the same time Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) drops like a stone from its very high levels.

Eurasia
The snow drought in much of Europe has nearly ended, simply because (apart from Norway etc) there is almost no snow expected, nor is there a lot left.

In Asia both SCE and SWE declining strongly, SCE glued to 1 SD below average, SWE a bit more than 1 SD above average.. (no images attached).

________________________________________________
ps: Snowfall on Greenland (SMB) at this moment in time remains significantly below average.
________________________________________
pps Spring Has Sprung....perhaps not in the Yukon?

If ever I saw blessing in the air
I see it now in this still early day
Where lemon-green the vaporous morning drips
Wet sunlight on the powder of my eye.

Blown bubble-film of blue, the sky wraps round
Weeds of warm light whose every root and rod
Splutters with soapy green, and all the world
Sweats with the bead of summer in its bud.

If ever I heard blessing it is there
Where birds in trees that shoals and shadows are
Splash with their hidden wings and drops of sound
Break on my ears their crests of throbbing air.

Pure in the haze the emerald sun dilates,
The lips of sparrows milk the mossy stones,
While white as water by the lake a girl
Swims her green hand among the gathered swans.

Now, as the almond burns its smoking wick,
Dropping small flames to light the candled grass;
Now, as my low blood scales its second chance,
If ever world were blessed, now it is.

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gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #171 on: April 22, 2020, 09:58:26 PM »
It is one month after the Spring Equinox, and warmth (and rain) is attcking the snow cover, but erratically.

https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current Snow Cover Extent and Mass as at 21 April 2020

North America


Both SCE and SWE  falling quickly from what seems to be getting to be the new normal for SWE of being very much above the average at maximum.

Eurasia
SWE declining strongly again from a very high maximum, and in contrast SCE, that was  glued to 1 SD below average, has decllined slowly and now blipped up to 1SD above average.
________________________________________________
ps: Snowfall on Greenland (SMB) at this moment in time remains significantly below average.
________________________________________
pps Spring Has Verily Sprung....perhaps not in the Yukon?

Betcha the snow will all be gone at the average date.
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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #172 on: April 23, 2020, 03:41:34 AM »
I fear the COVID situation will precipitate a BOE or near-BOE this summer as we deal with the ramifications of a 30% drop in industrial output, or whatever it is, and ensuing fall in particulates / SO2.

I suspect Hudson Bay will be a lone redoubt for the sea ice, even if it still melts entirely, which is no guarantee. This upcoming winter, I anticipate a very lackluster refreeze, but a very severe winter across North America in particular, with a situation worse than this spring (or 2018) unfolding in 2021. I could see Eurasia being dominated by warmth and having another very early spring / summer next year, just like this one, while the remnants of the PV plop into Hudson Bay and stay there into May, June, and July.

I wonder how long the SWE will persist this yr, as well.

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #173 on: April 23, 2020, 09:00:59 PM »
I fear the COVID situation will precipitate a BOE or near-BOE this summer as we deal with the ramifications of a 30% drop in industrial output, or whatever it is, and ensuing fall in particulates / SO2.

I suspect Hudson Bay will be a lone redoubt for the sea ice, even if it still melts entirely, which is no guarantee. This upcoming winter, I anticipate a very lackluster refreeze, but a very severe winter across North America in particular, with a situation worse than this spring (or 2018) unfolding in 2021. I could see Eurasia being dominated by warmth and having another very early spring / summer next year, just like this one, while the remnants of the PV plop into Hudson Bay and stay there into May, June, and July.

I wonder how long the SWE will persist this yr, as well.

COVID19  or no COVID19, you always think this is the year of an BOE. Considering we have not even seen an ice free north pole, I think an BOE this year is probably less than a 1% probability(always bear in mind nothing is impossible).

Regarding the snow cover situation. Quite an odd situation has occurred, is the significant gains on the Asian snow cover an error or genuine? I think a colder plunge has headed that way whilst a warm plunge has headed towards the Arctic but it does look quite odd imo.

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #174 on: April 23, 2020, 10:15:55 PM »
I fear the COVID situation will precipitate a BOE or near-BOE this summer as we deal with the ramifications of a 30% drop in industrial output, or whatever it is, and ensuing fall in particulates / SO2.

I suspect Hudson Bay will be a lone redoubt for the sea ice, even if it still melts entirely, which is no guarantee. This upcoming winter, I anticipate a very lackluster refreeze, but a very severe winter across North America in particular, with a situation worse than this spring (or 2018) unfolding in 2021. I could see Eurasia being dominated by warmth and having another very early spring / summer next year, just like this one, while the remnants of the PV plop into Hudson Bay and stay there into May, June, and July.

I wonder how long the SWE will persist this yr, as well.

COVID19  or no COVID19, you always think this is the year of an BOE. Considering we have not even seen an ice free north pole, I think an BOE this year is probably less than a 1% probability(always bear in mind nothing is impossible).

Regarding the snow cover situation. Quite an odd situation has occurred, is the significant gains on the Asian snow cover an error or genuine? I think a colder plunge has headed that way whilst a warm plunge has headed towards the Arctic but it does look quite odd imo.

I feel like its more like 10% chance of a BOE occuring at any given year now. In 5 years it will probably be 50% in any given year. In 10 years, somewhere in the 90% margin
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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #175 on: April 24, 2020, 04:33:27 PM »
We have a dedicated thread for BOE.

Meanwhile lets keep tracking the snow cover (it is an important input for succesful predictions).
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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #176 on: April 24, 2020, 09:53:11 PM »
Thank you Kassy.

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #177 on: April 26, 2020, 02:51:21 PM »
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

Looks to me very much like the new normal.

It snows a lot more at high latitudes, and not so much at low latitudes.
Snow melts out more rapidly and my guess is to an average date for complete thaw.
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Pavel

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #178 on: April 27, 2020, 09:52:27 AM »
Just to compare how Siberia looks today and at the same date of 2012.

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #179 on: April 27, 2020, 11:41:01 AM »
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

The snow melts.

In North America this week looks like warmth building in the West, in the East cool but lots of rain + a bit of wet snow. Melt will accelerate?


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bbr2315

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #180 on: April 28, 2020, 01:11:24 AM »
12z EURO shows a 6" to a foot or more of snow on May 6th-7th across parts of the interior.

I think my language re: "new ice age" needs revisions. While the Earth will continue warming, it is becoming increasingly plausible that parts of North America could become a new anchor for the NHEM cold pole, or at least the "primary" cold pole, which entails a possible rapid reversion to year-round snowcover and glaciation in a limited region. At the same time, it appears Siberia is only going to keep getting warmer, even if it does snow more, it isn't sticking around in Eurasia anywhere near as much as it is in North America.

<I have approved this just to explain: I will not tolerate 10-day snow forecasts. I will not tolerate idle speculation and discussion of glaciation and year-round snowcover. I will let through actual snow accumulations and their deviation from normal, though Gerontocrat usually keeps us well posted on such. I will let through actual evidence of year-round snowcover, for example, certain locations that have snow lingering beyond what is normal for the location. However, this will be backed by numerical data, such as found in present vs. past Synop reports, and not by hard-to-read huge maps with zero resolutions. I will not tolerate speculation that heavy winter snow will surely linger in summer, unless actual evidence of correlation supporting this is posted. I will not tolerate idle speculation of AMOC disruption due to increased snowmelt and oceanic discharge, unless evidence of said discharge and its deviation from normal is posted. Thanks. O>
« Last Edit: April 28, 2020, 11:48:39 AM by oren »

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #181 on: May 01, 2020, 10:05:17 PM »
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

What with it being late spring 'n all, the snow melts.

In North America - very, very large losses in snow mass (SWE) in the last 2-3 days- somebody must be getting wet feet.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #182 on: May 08, 2020, 02:38:16 PM »
From https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

The snow melts but clings on in Central Northern Canada & Western Siberia.

Looks like warmth reaches Northern climes except for those same areas, that may well be laggards in melting.

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bbr2315

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #183 on: May 10, 2020, 07:17:32 PM »
Snow fell in NYC yesterday, tying 1977 for the latest T in recorded history for the Big Apple.

oren

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #184 on: May 11, 2020, 05:44:26 AM »
Snow cover in Alaska has been decimated in the past few days, judging by the snow depth in Bettles Airport, down from 50cm to 11cm. A couple more days and it's gone.

In the meantime, snow cover in various Siberian stations is stable.
« Last Edit: May 11, 2020, 05:59:04 AM by oren »

Niall Dollard

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #185 on: May 13, 2020, 12:03:11 PM »
Snow is very deep still in northern Norway.

The port of Tromso is still reporting  132cm snow lying. It could be there until June.

Quick look back there on previous years reveals (depths on May 12th) :

2020 132cm
2019 0cm (snow gone by 11th May)
2018 0cm (snow gone by 6th May)
2017 37cm (snow went on 21st May)
2016 0cm (snow gone on 2nd May)
 

Frivolousz21

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #186 on: May 14, 2020, 02:33:34 PM »
The environment Canada graphic says Ellesmere island is 100CM+ above normal.

The black and white graphic on the EC website has 1327CM as the peak on the island with most of it between 500-1000CM.

There is no way.  By August most of the island will be snow free except on the glaciers.

So why these wildly off numbers?

It has 50-300CM of snow depth on the Arctic ice sheet centering near the pole with the 300CM depth.

Which is nuts...at the MOSIAC project snow depth is 7-9cm.

Also the Tibetan Plateau is mostly 100CM above normal at well.

That's very unlikely and modis worldview shows no snow there except on glaciers and that is very wet this time of year.

Sounds like these things skew the anomalous positive departures
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gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #187 on: May 14, 2020, 02:51:55 PM »
All we can do is use the data available to us, but maybe with a big "caveat emptor"  sign.
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oren

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #188 on: May 14, 2020, 05:28:40 PM »
That EC map is barely readable, I never did like it much. But in coastal weather stations  there's hardly any snow.

In Alert at the NE edge of Ellesmere there's 11cm.
https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ord=REV&ndays=50&ind=71355

In Eureka at the western coast of Ellesmere there's 8cm.
https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ord=REV&ndays=50&ind=71613

In Isachsen on Ellef Ringness Island there's 16cm.
https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ord=REV&ndays=50&ind=71074

Frivolousz21

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #189 on: May 14, 2020, 06:09:14 PM »
That EC map is barely readable, I never did like it much. But in coastal weather stations  there's hardly any snow.

In Alert at the NE edge of Ellesmere there's 11cm.
https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ord=REV&ndays=50&ind=71355

In Eureka at the western coast of Ellesmere there's 8cm.
https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ord=REV&ndays=50&ind=71613

In Isachsen on Ellef Ringness Island there's 16cm.
https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ord=REV&ndays=50&ind=71074

Thanks for the info. 

I don't know how much a place the size of Ellesmere island and the tibetan plateau both showing to have 100CM+ anomalies that are straight off the charts wrong effects the swe.

I'd guess not a ridiculous amount.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #190 on: May 16, 2020, 11:20:15 AM »
I am sticking with Environment Canada data. Although all models are prone to error, by staying with just the one data set at least there is a chance that the error will be consistent.

https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

North America snow melt still behind schedule by one to two weeks , as is Eurasia melt by somewhat less.  Of interest will the progress of snow cover retreating to the shores of the Arctic Ocean. Central Canada looks like it will be the laggard (again?).

Also attached is the snow anomaly map from Nico Sun
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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #191 on: May 18, 2020, 01:00:03 PM »
Looks like that surge in warmth in Siberia is now doing snow mass a real mischief.
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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #192 on: May 20, 2020, 10:00:17 AM »
So by the end of May it looks like goodbye to snow in the Russian Arctic, & goodbye to snow in North America apart from that obstinate cold blob in central north Canada (& maybe the Russian side of the Bering Strait?).

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst_outlook/
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current
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bbr2315

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #193 on: May 20, 2020, 08:45:38 PM »
I wonder if the aerosols + contrails situation have aggravated baseline albedo trends (=warmer Eurasia, colder North America). The year-over-year change for the date in Siberia is......


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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #194 on: May 21, 2020, 08:58:41 AM »
South of the Laptev over the past 4 days. Click to play

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #195 on: May 22, 2020, 01:31:58 PM »
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst_outlook/


Eurasia
Goodbye to Siberian snow by the end of the month.
But given the large SWE anomaly at maximum - is this early?

The River discharge data fot the Lena, Yenesei, & Ob could tell us how much discharge above average and the timing therof.

North America - the snow is melting but that big cold blob over & beyond the CAA is hanging on.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2020, 01:51:09 PM by gerontocrat »
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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #196 on: May 24, 2020, 07:39:47 AM »
The EURO and CMC both show very cold and snowy airmasses subsisting and then growing across Quebec and the Yukon / Nunavut from D6-10.





The deeper we get into June and the longer the snowpack is sustained the larger the -anomaly becomes against normal for regions supposed to be snow-free by now.

While we should see snowy and cold conditions linger into June I do imagine they will dissipate for most areas currently impacted by 7/1 across the Canadian Shield -- that means a cold pocket could also feasibly continue in this area in July and August, accompanying an early growth in snowpack by August as most of the rest of the Arctic becomes completely overwhelmed in heat.

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #197 on: May 24, 2020, 08:00:07 AM »
Thanks for the weather updates and analysis. Just please don't start with that old theory. "Early growth in snowpack by August as most of the rest of the Arctic becomes completely overwhelmed in heat" will not happen.

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #198 on: May 27, 2020, 11:08:51 AM »
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst_outlook/

North America - the snow will go but that cold blob over Central Northern Canada is really impressive by its strength & persistence.

Arctic Eurasia - the fast melt of the remaining snow looks set to continue at a rapid pace.
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It looks to me that maybe much of the snow on the Tibetan plateau may melt in the coming 10 days.
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Niall Dollard

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #199 on: May 28, 2020, 06:31:26 PM »
Uniquorn posted this link (in another thread). It's confirmation of what we had often suspected but it's good to have on the spot reporting, out on the pack.

Also they noticed that first year ice quite often froze to around the same depth/thickness as the multi year parts.

"MOSAiC scientists measured as much as 68 centimetres of snow on multi-year ice, whereas first-year ice gained only a few centimetres. (The reason is simple: snow tends to accumulate on the thick ridges of multi-year ice, but gets swept across smooth first-year ice.)"

https://www.nature.com/immersive/d41586-020-01446-x/index.html