This is a bit tangential but I think it is not hysterical and reasonably well-reasoned.... I hope? In any case..... RAMBLINGS:
Comparing EOSDIS from today to every year in the satellite record, 2020 is far and away the leader in both extent and albedo in North America, IMO. Not only is it still snowy, in Nunavut, it is still DEEP, sufficiently so that reflectivity remains very high. The only years since 2000 that come kind of close are 2002 and 2009.
With 18 days to go til solstice, this year's snowcover could be a valuable datapoint as we move forward. When is it going to melt completely? As we can see in the data from Tromso, many locations with abnormally high snowcover are now melting out completely. But besides the record depth for much of spring, the melt itself has occurred in an extraordinarily abbreviated window in these locations, as well.
I think the evolution of the climate from 2012 to 2020 makes several observations now evident and important.
1) The PEAK "snow-water-equivalent" in both North America and Eurasia is moving LATER into the year. It is also becoming much HIGHER. Max values are now approaching +50% of 1998-2011 max, however, the discrepancy is especially high in April, May, and now, June, where the differential vs. normal is now oftentimes +100% or higher.
2) When snow melt occurs, it increasingly does so extremely rapidly, even with much higher snow-water-equivalent. With the overall volume and flux of the pack (unfortunately we do not have a measurement on FLUX, this would be very useful!!!), this means that MUCH MORE snow is melting MUCH LATER in the year than during the 1998-2011 period, especially in North America.
3) As Greenland apparently becomes the center of the "cold pole" we are also seeing an increasing shift in snow mass towards North America and, evidently, now Scandinavia. Thus, while these regions are seeing the consequences of greater / later meltwater flux, parts of Siberia are seeing the opposite unfold, where less snow / earlier melt = earlier abatement of meltwater flux = earlier onset of true summer conditions?
From these observations we can ask several questions.
1) How much SWE is necessary for remaining volume in July, and August, and September?
Moderator's Note: In order to ask this question you must first show a correlation between higher wintertime SWE and later melt-out dates. For example, the case of Tromso posted above does not support such a correlation. Until such proof is presented, this is purely speculative and considered disruptive to the forum.
This winter, we saw about 300 KM^3 of volume accretion in November, December, January, and February. March had about 200 KM^3 of accretion, October had about 160 KM^3.
It seems the deeper into WACCY weather we get, the more consistently snow accumulates at a greater pace than normal on the continents (esp North America). However, my big question here, is does monthly accumulation depend on meeting a baseline, and then hit a "sticky" number thereafter?
I.E., once we hit 200 KM^3, we can then rack up gains of 300KM^3 a month until spring.
Does hitting 200KM^3 earlier in the year open the door to FASTER and more consistent accumulations? Why can't October become apart of the +300KM^3 club? Why not September?
Moderator's note: Snow season does not begin in September. In a warming world snow season is not expected to begin earlier, until proof is presented of it actually beginning earlier this is speculative and considered disruptive to the forum.
I have a very strong hunch there is no reason these months CANNOT become part of this club but it hinges on enough volume surviving into the autumn to provide a sufficient baseline for regrowth. Regrowth from practically zero results in months of lag, but regrowth from ~200KM^3 could be sufficient to provide much faster and more reliable gains much earlier in the winter season.
Moderator's Note: There is no evidence that supports widespread snow survival through the summer into the autumn. Until such evidence is presented showing actual survival, this is speculative and considered disruptive to the forum.
Finally, on a more imaginative note, let's guesstimate 15 years into the future. The year is 2035.
SWE peaks at 2,400 KM^3 in North America. That is about 2X a good year 30 years ago. But more important than the raw increase in volume, was the fact that the peak does not occur until April 25th, leaving about 2,000 KM^3 of volume as of May 1st.
Moderator's Note: Such SWE accumulations are idle speculation. Moreover, the following part is even more speculative. Actual observed SWE progression during snowmelt season does not follow your speculations.
That number drops to 1,200 KM^3 by June 1st. The June 1st volume of snow in North America is about what it is at peak February thirty years prior. And it has increased about 12X from the 6/1 volume from 6/1/2005.
600KM^3 remains on 7/1. And 300KM^3 remains as of 8/1. The longer the snow stays in the summertime in substantial volume, the more snow falls atop the existing cover and in surrounding regions, effectively turning winter into a full-year affair in the regions of least melt.
By September 1st, volume has hit a minimum of 150KM^3 in the middle of August, before rapidly rebounding to about 200KM^3.
The next six months all feature gains of 350KM^3 apiece, taking volume to 2,400KM^3 by 3/1/2036. It hits 2,700KM^3 on 4/1/2036. And in 2036, the maximum does not happen until May 1st, at 2,850KM^3.
We still lose 40% of the volume that May. It is 1,700KM^3 as of 6/1/2036, but this year, the VERY late release and very MASSIVE release relative to time of year acts especially protective re: North America. 800KM^3 remains as of 7/1, 400KM^3 remains by 8/1, and from this trend, it becomes clear how residual anomalies through summertime could have a snowball effect on overall anomalies IF AND WHEN THEY DO SURVIVE.
Moderator's Note: When residual anomalies do survive you can revisit these idle speculations.
There is another caveat here. Will the rate of continental accretion continue to increase during wintertime as the oceans get warmer and the Arctic becomes increasingly ice-free? I think there is an argument to be made that this is also a trend now worsening.
So basically the next twenty years we have a few things to keep closest eye on.
1) Is more snow falling each and every year? (YES)
2) Is the time of year where snow can accrete at its fastest rate INCREASING in duration? (YES)
3) Is the time of year for absolute snow melt (SWE-volume wise) DECREASING in duration? (YES)
4) Is the rate of snow melt increasing? (YES)
5) Is snow melt shifting proportionately later into the year (YES)
Moderator's Note: Does more SWE in winter mean later melt-out date in summer? (Proof is required). Show that specific locations are exhibiting such a correlation, before you are allowed to continue in such speculation as edited above. Following posts with similar speculative content will be edited out or removed entirely without much ceremony.