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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4600 on: December 05, 2019, 01:59:52 PM »
No, Tor, as far as Tesla is concerned, GSY is convinced it is all a scam because Musk is involved and the largest shareholder.

Beyond an unreasonable doubt....

As for believing that nobody needs personal vehicles? That is normally a position held by City dwellers and students who have 0% visibility of the real world.

Those of us who live in the country know different.

Of course if the cities want to ban personal vehicle ownership for all city dwellers, I'll support them all the way.  I just won't ever be a city dweller.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4601 on: December 05, 2019, 02:49:07 PM »
Musk announces Tesla priorities for Q4 2019.

https://electrek.co/2019/12/04/tesla-two-most-critical-priorities-elon-musk/amp/

Predictable.
« Last Edit: December 05, 2019, 05:24:56 PM by NeilT »
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crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4602 on: December 05, 2019, 03:27:14 PM »
Musk announces Tesla priorities for Q4 2020.

https://electrek.co/2019/12/04/tesla-two-most-critical-priorities-elon-musk/amp/

Predictable.

Looks like priorities for Q4 2019  ;)

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4603 on: December 05, 2019, 05:26:15 PM »
Correct, I modified it.

Apparently I am already in 2020, pity I missed the Christmas break....
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4604 on: December 05, 2019, 05:27:42 PM »
Even the shorts think Tesla will make delivery guidance in 2019.

https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4310524-tesla-will-likely-achieve-record-deliveries-in-q4-despite-headwinds

Although it is couched in completely negative language designed to run the stock down.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4605 on: December 05, 2019, 07:04:51 PM »
Musk announces Tesla priorities for Q4 2019.

https://electrek.co/2019/12/04/tesla-two-most-critical-priorities-elon-musk/amp/

Predictable.
He sent an e-mail to the employees to tell 'em to deliver the cars and get the solar power sales up.
Pretty routine.

Not an announcement to the Public of  TESLA's latest pow, wow, whoopee.

I tell you, methinks Tesla's playing it cool. P'raps Musk is hoping to encourage the shorties by his silence & then zap them with Qu4 results - A New Year Present to himself, and within the SEC rules.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4606 on: December 05, 2019, 08:25:08 PM »
Tesla Model 3 wins 3 out of 4 awards given at a recent event in Switzerland:

• Swiss car of the year 2020
• Switzerland's favorite car 2020
• The greenest car in Switzerland 2020

https://news-techno.com/2019/12/03/tesla-model-3-is-the-swiss-car-of-the-year-2020/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4607 on: December 05, 2019, 08:37:52 PM »
Giga Berlin

Quote
#Gf4 #Gigafactory4 (@Gf4Tesla) 12/4/19, 2:42 AM
Tesla is already looking for employees for German work - and lures with extras !!!!
In addition to a share package, Tesla promises a company pension plan, as well as continuing education and benefits at "well-known manufacturers and brands".
https://twitter.com/gf4tesla/status/1202131063969132545

Via Google translate:

Two years before opening
Tesla is already looking for employees for German factory - and lures with extras
03.12.2019
Quote
Tesla's announcement to build a gigafactory in Brandenburg near Berlin did not go down well everywhere. Some critics even scented only a PR prank. But Tesla is serious - and is already looking for first employees for the site.
https://amp.focus.de/finanzen/boerse/aktien/neue-gigafactory-geplant-tesla-kommt-nach-brandenburg-und-sucht-schon-erste-mitarbeiter_id_11418775.html

“Pension” promise is no joke, considering that VW’s pension fund is known to be underfunded by billions.
Quote
JPR007 (@jpr007) 11/6/19, 3:57 PM
No, that's VW and their Unfunded Pension liabilities
https://twitter.com/jpr007/status/1192184336474243072
Graph below.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4608 on: December 05, 2019, 08:39:58 PM »

I tell you, methinks Tesla's playing it cool. P'raps Musk is hoping to encourage the shorties by his silence & then zap them with Qu4 results - A New Year Present to himself, and within the SEC rules.

Well it worked in Q3. Although the shorts are being kind of cautious.

My take is that a Q4 record with a small profit followed by a Q1 2020 record, more solar and a bigger profit and the shorts are going to be crushed.

Alternatively things could turn slightly negative and the whole game starts again.

My minimum expectations are a small profit in Q4 2019 and also in Q1/Q2 2020, bringing Tesla to 4Q of profit.  Which is their next big hurdle.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4609 on: December 05, 2019, 08:48:59 PM »
Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 12/4/19, 10:58 AM
After 30 months of production, fewer than 50 Model 3 cars, or 0.01% of the fleet, are available for resale in the entire world while the demand for used Model 3 surges
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1202255751869292545

VA:  I estimate that ~3m used ICE vehicles are available for resale in the U.S. today, or 1% of the fleet.
In other words, the 0.01% used Model 3 availability is two orders of magnitude smaller than used ICE availability, indicating that Model 3 owners do not want to sell their cars.
- #Model3 will soon become the most sought-after car in the humungous used-vehicle market

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 12/4/19, 5:06 PM
Check this graph out. 40+ million used vehicles are sold in the U.S. each year, which is 2.5x of new vehicle sales.
In other words, the exponential surge in the used Model 3 demand will overwhelm any supply that comes to market even when Model Y arrives...

< I can't see anyone selling a Model 3 until the Y is available. our family would never part with ours.
Graph below.

Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 6/9/19, 11:38 PM
MODEL 3 DOES NOT DEPRECIATE

ranig (@ranig) 12/1/19, 1:30 AM
Sold my model 3 (upgraded to performance). Listing to transfer took 3 days. Sold for almost original price. @ValueAnalyst1 is right!
https://twitter.com/ranig/status/1201025658224140288

———-
Quote
Totoro (@terra_mm) 12/4/19, 8:43 AM
Finn.no, the major source of used cars in Norway, lists:
34 Tesla Model 3 (0.2% of fleet)
115 Hyundai Kona (2.8%)
45 Kia e-Niro (5.7%)
135 Audio e-Tron (2.5%)
162 Jaguar i-Pace (3.9%)

source: Finn.no 2 dec and elbilstatistikk.no

https://twitter.com/terra_mm/status/1202221917647847426
- Fuller picture:
Data below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4610 on: December 05, 2019, 08:57:57 PM »
Quote
Alter Viggo (@AlterViggo) 12/4/19, 3:14 PM
By far my favorite #CyberTruck render.

@Tesla is going to sell a lot of these things.

https://www.instagram.com/p/B5p3VnDHYve/?igshid=1ra3dulputnb1
https://twitter.com/alterviggo/status/1202320379408080896
Rendering below.

Edit:  Sun, sand, and... snow?
Elon Musk gets Governor’s welcome to build Tesla Cybertruck in Alaska
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-production-alaska-governor/
« Last Edit: December 06, 2019, 01:55:34 PM by Sigmetnow »
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4611 on: December 06, 2019, 04:17:03 AM »
As for believing that nobody needs personal vehicles? That is normally a position held by City dwellers and students who have 0% visibility of the real world.

Those of us who live in the country know different.

Most people who live in rural places don't own a car. First-worlders are extremely first-world-centric and struggle to understand how anyone could live without all the high energy luxuries they see as essential.

Approximately 1% of people who have ever lived have owned a car. So, cars are a super luxury and totally unnecessary.

But hey, Neil thinks his ride is an imperative, and he is never totally wrong.
big time oops

nanning

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4612 on: December 06, 2019, 07:55:59 AM »
^^
Indeed, first-world-centric and therefore blind to reality.
USA-centric is even worse.


Plan by someone with a view from outside the bubbles (me):

Phase out the private car (yes also EV) in 5 years and massively improve and electrify public transport in that period, and make it free to use. After 5 years private cars are illegal on public roads. No financial compensations.

Apologies for the off-topic post.

P.S. has anyone ever asked Mr. Musk about the microplastic emissions from the cars Tesla makes?
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Ranman99

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4613 on: December 06, 2019, 08:05:23 AM »
 8)



Randy Fitton

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4614 on: December 06, 2019, 08:41:55 AM »
Quote
Phase out the private car (yes also EV) in 5 years and massively improve and electrify public transport in that period, and make it free to use. After 5 years private cars are illegal on public roads. No financial compensations.
OK if you live in a city.
I don't and I don't ever want to again.

Year zero failed the last time it was tried and millions died as a result .......

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4615 on: December 06, 2019, 09:51:47 AM »
Most pople in 3rd world countries aspire to a car. It is their burning ambition.

Meanwhile, in the world where people don't live off the land, do not produce all their own food and have to travel to the food shops, have decreasing public transport and diminishing options all around, personal transport is a requirement.

Tesla aims to fulfil that with vehicles which do not emit CO2 at the point of use.

Wittering on about how people who live in totally different circumstances don't have vehicles puts you in the crackpot bracket for 90% of normal voters and those voters decide who makes policy.

Way to go.
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4616 on: December 06, 2019, 10:44:18 AM »
 I just had a look at the second hand market here.  in NZ

Jaguar Ipace sold new 86 second hand on market 10.
Audi Etron sold new  91 second hand on market 10.
Tesla 3 sold new 553 second hand on market 0.
In fact there are only 7 Tesla of any model for sale  out of something like  1000 on the road here .

Second hand cars https://www.trademe.co.nz/motors/used-cars
Numbers sold new https://www.mia.org.nz/Portals/0/MIA-Sales%20Data/Vehicle%20Sales/EV/EV%20Stats%20November%20YTD%202019.pdf

nanning

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4617 on: December 06, 2019, 10:50:00 AM »
Yes everything is going hunkydory NeilT, except it is not. Drastic changes are required.
The crackpots are the ones opposing drastic change i.e. the rich countries in first-world-centric bubbles.

My personal transport is a bike or on foot. For greater distances I take public transport. As do the majority of humans.

I have no money and don't want an obcene and lazy personal motor assistance in a private extremely high energy using 1500kg bubble. With microplastic emissions, which is a growing problem and killing/poisoning living nature.

No, I don't 'hate' cars. I 'hate' bad behaviour and lack of personal responsibility and complete lack of empathy!
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4618 on: December 06, 2019, 12:12:31 PM »
Quote
Year zero failed the last time it was tried and millions died as a result .......
KiwiGriff, the only "Year Zero" I am familiar with is "Panic in the Year Zero", an old movie about a nuclear war.
Is that what you are referring to here?
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4619 on: December 06, 2019, 01:03:54 PM »

My personal transport is a bike or on foot. For greater distances I take public transport. As do the majority of humans.

<snip>

No, I don't 'hate' cars. I 'hate' bad behaviour and lack of personal responsibility and complete lack of empathy!

And you have a family? Wife? Need to get children to school, wife to work, family to shop for, family holidays to take?  Life is very black and white without complications.

As for my Empathy, you know nothing about me except my views on a very small slice of the world.  You know a little about how I work and have to travel but nothing about how that came about.

I could introduce you to one of my sons. He's nothing like me, his favourite saying is that if you are looking for sympathy you will find it between shit and syphyllis in the dictionary. That is not how I view the world.
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nanning

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4620 on: December 06, 2019, 02:10:48 PM »
My last sentence was a general statement and not specifically directed at you Neil. Apologies for the misunderstanding.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
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gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4621 on: December 06, 2019, 02:19:52 PM »
Quote
Year zero failed the last time it was tried and millions died as a result .......
KiwiGriff, the only "Year Zero" I am familiar with is "Panic in the Year Zero", an old movie about a nuclear war.
Is that what you are referring to here?
If you want to make yourself really ill, read all about it.......

Year Zero (political notion) - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Year_Zero_(political_notion)
The term Year Zero applied to the takeover of Cambodia in April 1975 by the Khmer Rouge, ... Perpetrators. "Angkar Leu". Pol Pot · Nuon Chea · Ieng Sary · Khieu Samphan · Son Sen · Ta Mok · Khmer Rouge · Communist Party of Kampuchea .

Year Zero: The Silent Death of Cambodia - John Pilger
johnpilger.com › videos › year-zero-the-silent-death-of-cambodia
John Pilger's shocking 1979 documentary Year Zero: The Silent Death of Cambodia alerted the world to the horrors wrought by Pol Pot and his Khmer Rouge.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4622 on: December 06, 2019, 02:38:23 PM »
Quote
My personal transport is a bike or on foot. For greater distances I take public transport. As do the majority of humans.

The majority of humans use public transport? Source, please.

The majority of humans own private forms of mobility.  Public transportation works great in densely populated areas or places that can afford to run empty buses all day. The lower the population the more inefficient mass transportation becomes.

Busses and rail are only efficient when packed with people. A bus running routes with no passengers is a climate sin.

What we need is non-emitting, very long-lasting, lightweight, cheap, sustainable fleets of metal boxes on wheels that can safely transport humans and cargo from point a to point b on demand.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4623 on: December 06, 2019, 03:41:36 PM »
Year zero may be a little extreme.
Some are pushing for that level of compulsion as the solution for our problem.
Use the market. Taxing  those who excessively consume to modify behavior is far more acceptable to the majority.

FWIW I offset my limited carbon footprint with over a hectare of trees. We are discussing planting and permanently covenanting another hectare of temperate rain forest. I also lightly stock beef cattle and rotational graze the other 4 hectares again a net carbon sink and I get yummy grass fed  steak to eat.

crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4624 on: December 06, 2019, 03:58:43 PM »

The majority of humans use public transport? Source, please.

Why even ask?
1 billion motor vehicles, 7.7 billion people. What do you think?

nanning

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4625 on: December 06, 2019, 04:46:37 PM »
Thanks crandles.

Kiwigriff, if you offset your carbon footprint with planting trees, I think it is a very good idea (if feasible) to plant fruit and nut trees. In that way you can have some food in emergency situations. Good for biodiversity as well.
Perhaps you already do that.

Overall I think the best and fastest way to lower emissions is to use LESS ENERGY per person. It teaches people some restraint and that is a good thing to build on from. To extirpate consumerism. And destroy commercial temptation.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4626 on: December 06, 2019, 04:54:33 PM »
My last sentence was a general statement and not specifically directed at you Neil. Apologies for the misunderstanding.

I'm probably too sensitive.

It is an emotive issue and we all view it in different ways.  Personally I have restricted my long haul flights.  This means I am cut off from one son and his daughter in Argentina and one daughter, in Canada, with a grandson and granddaughter that I had a great deal to do with raising.

These are the choices we make and their consequences.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4627 on: December 06, 2019, 05:07:04 PM »

The majority of humans use public transport? Source, please.

Why even ask?
1 billion motor vehicles, 7.7 billion people. What do you think?

One billion cars, two billion bicycles and no stats on how many walk because they have never been more than 10 miles from their place of birth.

It depends on your expectations.  To someone Pre WW1, current commuting to London on public transport is a waste and eletism.  This is because, in the UK at that time, 90% of people had never been more than 10 miles from where they were born.

I'm pretty sere there are hundreds of millions of people in the world who have never travelled on public transport in their lives.

It is easy to say but not easy to prove.  For instance China has 1.4bn people but the China rail transport records 2.5bn rides a Year.  Bit of a disconnect there.

The problem is that stats are sparse for agri communities and figures are skewed by places like Mexico City and Caracas before the real trouble began.
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nanning

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4628 on: December 06, 2019, 06:46:16 PM »
Neil, you are affirming my statement I think. The majority of humanity goes by foot, by bike or public transport for greater distances.
I didn't mean to write that the majority uses publc transport.

crandles' facts are important in breaking the first-world-centric bubble. The rich country peoples' bubble. Bubbles are very hard to see and even harder to break.

General civilisation has copied the bad and insane habits of the aristocracy of old. A perverse version of a 'good life'. Now it is 'normal'. That is a hard bubble. There are many more.

P.S. I keep posting off-topic for this thread and am not aware that there is a problem with it right now
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4629 on: December 06, 2019, 07:25:24 PM »

The majority of humans use public transport? Source, please.

Why even ask?
1 billion motor vehicles, 7.7 billion people. What do you think?

I'm not sure what that statistic is supposed to make me think.

How many buses are there in the world? A few dozen million, if that?

Most people move by their own means, be it motorized or not. Most people do not use public transportation. Public transportation is a necessity in high population density areas and a fiscal and practical impossibility in low population density areas.

The middle population density areas depend on the wealth of the area. Wealthy areas with good planinng and healthy budgets can have trains, buses, and interconnecting smaller public vehicles.  Poor medium population areas can't afford to keep fleets of busses running mostly empty.

Quote
crandles' facts are important in breaking the first-world-centric bubble. The rich country peoples' bubble. Bubbles are very hard to see and even harder to break.

You do not see your own privilege. I don't know where you live that you can safely ride a bike, then take public transportation and arrive at work fresh and ready, but if you didn't live in a bubble you would realize that is not possible in most places due to infrastructure cost being much larger than what the population can sustain.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4630 on: December 06, 2019, 08:58:25 PM »
P.S. has anyone ever asked Mr. Musk about the microplastic emissions from the cars Tesla makes?

Microparticle emissions from cars are mostly from brake, tire, and road wear.  Since EVs use regenerative braking, their braking forces are internal to the motor — their regular brakes last for the lifetime of the car.  (As will the Tesla semi’s brake pads.)  A recent Tesla update allows for one-pedal driving— the car can come to a full stop without the driver touching the brake pedal at all.  And EVs use low-rolling-resistance tires, so they pollute less than comparable ICE vehicles’ tires.  Road wear is thus similarly  reduced.

Teslas use less froufrou plastic by eliminating most buttons and knobs.  The cybertruck’s marble-looking dash is made from paper.  And by using stainless steel panels and no paint, the cybertruck will reduce volatile organic compounds, a risk arguably even worse than microplastics.

Thanks, Tesla!
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4631 on: December 06, 2019, 09:57:45 PM »
Quote
Tesla4k (@tesla4k) 12/6/19, 9:58 AM
Great news !
Tesla changes Cybertruck production schedule.
Tri Motor AWD production now expected in late 2021. (1 Yr earlier)
Dual Motor AWD production expected in late 2021.
Single Motor RWD production is expected to begin in late 2022. (Pushed 1 Yr further)
https://twitter.com/tesla4k/status/1202965633387810816
Screenshots at the link of order pages with above info.
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4632 on: December 06, 2019, 10:50:28 PM »
So it's back to the usual pattern of the more expensive versions first. Makes financial sense, though it puts some delay in the widespread adoption that cheap prices can bring.

KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4633 on: December 06, 2019, 11:27:57 PM »
The legacy industry makes higher margins on the more expensive versions. Selling more expensive versions first forces the legacy industry to react as it erodes their profit centers.
Tesla is production constrained they do not have the capacity to produce million of low cost cars even if they could do so at a profit .
There are  calculations based on the cyber tricks specs that suggest Tesla is down to about $110 kwh at the pack level. At that price battery costs have reached the tipping point we have been waiting for.

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4634 on: December 07, 2019, 12:11:58 AM »
So Musk won his court case.

I'm sure the stock will reflect it a bit on Monday.

It would appear that you have to do a bit more than throw insults during an online flame war to be convicted of defamation.

Personally I think Musks assertion that Unsworth did not actually intend to anally insert Musks submarine pretty much said most of it.

Apparently the Jury agreed.

Perhaps the Jury was thinking "There but for the grace of god".
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4635 on: December 07, 2019, 01:12:42 AM »
Streisand effect .
 ;)

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4636 on: December 07, 2019, 03:44:43 AM »
So it's back to the usual pattern of the more expensive versions first. Makes financial sense, though it puts some delay in the widespread adoption that cheap prices can bring.


Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 11/23/19, 3:54 PM
146k Cybertruck orders so far, with 42% choosing dual, 41% tri & 17% single motor
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1198344195317985280

They may have misjudged their market a bit, initially.  ;D
« Last Edit: December 07, 2019, 03:50:48 AM by Sigmetnow »
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4637 on: December 07, 2019, 03:47:01 AM »
And approval to start selling in China arrives with official recognition of the cars qualifying for Government incentives.

https://mspoweruser.com/tesla-china-sale-start/amp/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4638 on: December 07, 2019, 03:47:40 AM »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.