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Author Topic: 2020 refreezing season  (Read 1010 times)

Lord M Vader

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2020 refreezing season
« on: August 16, 2019, 07:55:14 PM »
While it might be somewhat early to discuss how the upcoming refreezing season will evolve I will at least open up the topic for discussion as the melting season is quickly winding down.

First, 2019 has been a very bad year for the ice and will by extent numbers most likely end up being second lowest on record behind 2012. It remains to see where the volume will end up. We might imagine just how bad the season would have been if the weather pattern hadn't eased during July. Especially the ESS would have been warmer as pointed out by Friv in the melting thread.

However, as most people know 2012 was followed by two very good years for ice retention which 2013 and 2014 actually was. Since then, we have seen a Super El Nino and we now have a warmer world.

Another thing that will make its appearence is the Arctic amplification. Remember that 2012 refroze quickly after minima was achieved? Given all that heat that has been stored in Chukchi and Berings Sea, the refreezing should likely be much slower than back in 2012. And, regent winters have been warmer than 2013.

Can we hope for another 2013? I am pessimistic that we will have such luck again. More likely is a troublesome refreezing season. Another question is for how much longer we'll see -AO dominate? Worst possibly outcome is if 2019 is going to be a "prepper" year followed by an egen worse 2020....


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Re: 2020 refreezing season
« Reply #1 on: August 16, 2019, 08:42:07 PM »
I guess the refreezing season will start late this year...


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Re: 2020 refreezing season
« Reply #2 on: August 16, 2019, 09:03:02 PM »
This year looked a lot more like 2016 than 2012. If conditions continue as they are and no GAC forms I expect freezing to begin briskly but then slow down and follow a path similar to 2017, but worse. If GAC’s form I expect the heat to be removed and a recovery similar to 2013 to happen.
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Re: 2020 refreezing season
« Reply #3 on: August 16, 2019, 09:34:24 PM »
If you look at the years 2016-2018 all three of them had some kind of delay in re-freezing.
2016 had an early minimum, but after a quick and short increase ice extent was way below average from end of October on. 2017 rose more steadily than 2016, but fell below the 2010s average end of October. And 2018, many of you will remember, had a late and long minimum and almost record low October values until a longer and stronger increase started end Oct/through November.
For 2019 - starting with a 2nd and maybe late minimum, surrounded by warmer than average seas - I think a delay in re-freezing is likely. IMO at least the much warmer than average peripheral seas (Laptev, Chukchi, Kara, ..., maybe ESS) will freeze later than usual.
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Re: 2020 refreezing season
« Reply #4 on: August 16, 2019, 10:59:20 PM »
Let's try again around the minimum.
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