Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Poll

Are you hoping to witness a BOE?

Yes, ASAP
41 (44.6%)
Yes, in my lifetime
11 (12%)
No, I am hoping it won’t ever happen
28 (30.4%)
No, I don’t know if eventually it will happen, but don’t wanna see it
12 (13%)

Total Members Voted: 92

Voting closed: September 07, 2019, 12:03:30 AM

Author Topic: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?  (Read 10340 times)

gandul

  • New ice
  • Posts: 86
  • de verdad
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 19
  • Likes Given: 1
Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« on: August 23, 2019, 12:03:30 AM »
This is a poll I am very interested in. I would prefer you people don’t comment on your vote, just answer truthfully, or ignore it, please. Everything anonymous (or anoni-miss in deplorables dialect).

No me lo trago

pietkuip

  • New ice
  • Posts: 30
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 49
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #1 on: August 23, 2019, 12:19:02 AM »
I am pretty sure it will happen soon.

And I hope I won't die soon.

DrTskoul

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1451
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 210
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #2 on: August 23, 2019, 12:46:49 AM »
Two things are certain in life.... taxes and death....

Human Habitat Index

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 156
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 21
  • Likes Given: 82
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #3 on: August 23, 2019, 12:50:58 AM »
Yes, the suspence is killing me.
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance. That principle is contempt prior to investigation. - Herbert Spencer

Michael Hauber

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 841
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 46
  • Likes Given: 12
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #4 on: August 23, 2019, 01:22:11 AM »
Well I think a BOE is not likely on a regular basis until late this century if at all, which might be beyond my lifetime (I'll be near 80 by 2050).  And I like being right about stuff.

I've often thought a perfect storm melt year like 2007 could lead to a BOE, but the difficulty in breaking 2012's record is starting to make me question this.  A one off BOE in the next few years would be lots of hype and doom and gloom, and then in following years there would surely be lots of claims of recovery etc.

A BOE event repeated over multiple years within the next 20 years would be a serous concern and mean I've underestimated the situation.  That would then be a case of trying to understand why it happened, and how that changes my expectations for global change.  Is methane venting rapidly from undersea clathrates?  Are temps rising rapidly?  Are other serious changes happening faster than commonly predicted?

I am reminded of storm and cyclone watching on weather forums.  I'm always excited about severe weather events, and kind of hope for these events to get as extreme as possible.  Then there is a bit of guilt because people can die in these events, or suffer serious property losses, and often discussions about how horrible it is that people are excited and hoping for severe weather, and many denials that no one is really hoping/excited, even though many posts seem to suggest that people are hoping/excited.  And I know that I personally am partly hoping/excited.  Maybe I'm sick.  Or maybe I'm just more willing to admit the excitement, and compartmentalise the guilt of the bad consequences under the logic of whether I hope or fear the severe weather event is coming anyway.  AGW has the additional element that we have (nearly?) all contributed, even if only a very small fraction of the total problem.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

be cause

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 891
  • Citizenship .. a Lurker gets asylum
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 261
  • Likes Given: 218
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #5 on: August 23, 2019, 01:32:41 AM »
I'm split .. now or never . I chose one .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Jacobus

  • New ice
  • Posts: 6
  • Concerned Citizen
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 51
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #6 on: August 23, 2019, 01:57:20 AM »
For the event it would be I want to see it, but for the tragedy it will be I am hoping a BOE won't happen. Things are clearly trending towards one in the next few years, so I expect to witness a BOE in my lifetime.
« Last Edit: August 23, 2019, 07:26:40 AM by Jacobus »

oren

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4531
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 908
  • Likes Given: 1302
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #7 on: August 23, 2019, 02:30:00 AM »
There's always the hope that a BOE ASAP will jolt humanity into action. As I doubt the jolting and especially the resulting action, I'd rather not ever see a BOE. Although I admit to a bit of horrified fascination when mother nature displays her powers.

Archimid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2404
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 305
  • Likes Given: 184
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #8 on: August 23, 2019, 02:49:33 AM »
I'm not a religious person, but I pray that I don't ever see a BOE. There will only be one BOE, the first one. After that there will be blue oceans every summer but they won't be distinct events, only the new normal. As we approach the BOE the global climate will turn to s**t. It is very likely the BOE happens within 2 decades.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

marcel_g

  • New ice
  • Posts: 73
    • View Profile
    • Art by Marcel Guldemond
  • Liked: 18
  • Likes Given: 105
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #9 on: August 23, 2019, 04:31:32 AM »
I'm hoping it doesn't happen, but I'm pretty sure it will. The ice is much thinner, younger, and softer/weaker and not nearly as cold as it was recently. The freezing seasons are less cold and shorter, so less ice gets rebuild every year. Even a few years ago there was a Beaufort arm of old ice that didn't melt out. Now it's just not there.

And once the ice does melt out, it just won't recover very well, it just takes too much energy removed to overcome the conversion back to ice. Like the water in your glass in the summer, it stays at 0C until the last ice melts, and then the temperature shoots up rapidly. Once the last ice melts, ocean temps and surface salinity will shoot up, making refreeze a lot more difficult.

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #10 on: August 23, 2019, 05:16:13 AM »
Yes,  I used to think this.  Secretly, around 2005, certainly after 2007.  since it seems people only think in story, my story was that the natural  variability would throw us a wild year like we know it can (from the little ice age, dust bowl, etc... natural black swans to us)

I hoped there would be maybe some Arctic El Nino we didn't know about and the ice would melt out in a flash, and the picture from space maybe enough to change all our minds at once

because it would have been that simple back then.  we'd have loved to build it, too

but that is not what's happening

BOE doesn't even matter.  It's already been tied securely to northern blocking, back when it would just ridge up into the Arctic from one side at a time.  Back when you might think winter polar vortex issues might still be coming at random.  Now it's repeatedly doing something that can only be called "catastrophic" & "present" and is being steered into the story of a mortal catastrophe for a lot of people.

...and what's happened already is why
I am not a scientist

interstitial

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 159
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 30
  • Likes Given: 56
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #11 on: August 23, 2019, 06:48:43 AM »
I don't hope for a BOE but expect one soon.

GoSouthYoungins

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1259
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 83
  • Likes Given: 109
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #12 on: August 23, 2019, 07:09:43 AM »
I'm curious why so many ppl want a BOE as soon as possible.
big time oops

Ktb

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 147
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 52
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #13 on: August 23, 2019, 08:11:20 AM »
I'm curious why so many ppl want a BOE as soon as possible.


Humanity is a plague. A failed experiment.
I have amazing news for you. Man is not alone on this planet. He is part of a community, upon which he depends absolutely.
- Ishmael

josh-j

  • New ice
  • Posts: 72
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 13
  • Likes Given: 102
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #14 on: August 23, 2019, 08:18:24 AM »
I think its more complicated than Yes or No. I choose both yes and no. Human thought is a complicated thing, after all.

I don't know whether it would be better in the end to have such a sudden and sharp jolt to maybe wake the world up, or better to have longer before chaos reaches where I am (after all some places already face this chaos).

There's a part of me which I suppose is like slowing down to look at a car crash - it's just so dramatic and would be an incredibly historic moment. That part of me wants a BOE, and it's the part which is watching keenly each year when the ice gets low. I cannot deny that.

But the other part of me wants a goddamn normal climate back so that our futures can be bright again, and is fearful of what will come of humanity's reckless destruction of natural cycles. That part of me grieves for the animals (including humans), plants, and diversity and beauty of life that will be lost. This is the part of me that looks intently at a humble fly and watches it finding food and cleaning its wings.

At the end of the day, it will happen at some point. I just want to have a future, and I want the same for the rest of us living inhabitants of Earth. Eventually, there will be light at the end of the tunnel; I'm not totally fatalistic. But whether that is within my lifetime or not is impossible to know.

Pmt111500

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1885
  • Yes, I do not always bicycle
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 95
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #15 on: August 23, 2019, 08:25:53 AM »
Oh, another poll on whether some people benefitted from subprime-crisis.

Voted that of course there are such people. That however does not apply in physical sciences.
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1095
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 282
  • Likes Given: 76
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #16 on: August 23, 2019, 08:26:51 AM »
Agree with josh-j.

I was unable to feel any "hope" for either the one or the other. In the end I went for "ASAP" - perhaps thinking that if it works for removing band-aids, it should work for ice removal (the faster the removal, the quicker the pain goes away).

Being extremely sceptical by nature, I am not expecting a BOE to have any significant or long-lasting effect on political behaviour in particular or human behaviour in general.

Being an eternal optimist, I don't think that a BOE is going to be catastrophical in and off itself.

Being easily bored, I am just hoping for something exciting to happen!
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

nanning

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1042
  • 0Kg CO2, 35 KWh/wk,130L H2O/wk, No heating
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 150
  • Likes Given: 6861
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #17 on: August 23, 2019, 08:35:57 AM »
I'm curious why so many ppl want a BOE as soon as possible.

In my case:
My viewpoint, priority Nr.1, is about saving biodiversity, all life on Earth. What will be left of it after we're done?

For that, the ongoing mass extinction and ecosystems- and biodiversity collapses have to stop!
Human civilisation has to stop with its accelerating total destruction as soon as possible.

I think that can only be achieved by external factors, e.g. a BOE. For the sake of all life on Earth.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1095
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 282
  • Likes Given: 76
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #18 on: August 23, 2019, 08:40:55 AM »
PS I like the graduated ice symbolism that has replaced the "lurker, citizen ..." descriptions.

New ice
Frazil ice
Grease ice
Nilas ice
Young ice
First-year ice

Have I missed any? Wonder what it takes to become Multi-year ice?
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

KiwiGriff

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 308
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #19 on: August 23, 2019, 08:45:35 AM »
I often follow category six and watch hurricanes.
Its exciting  it is also terrifying. I know the storm cause untold misery and feel for those who get hit yet still enjoy watching a storms progression and the live cams when they  impact  .
 
Some goes with a BOE I have kept up to date and lurked on here for years.
I often  think at the beginning of the season is  this the year?
Yet still know a BOE  is not a good milestone to hit .

Sam

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 134
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 116
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #20 on: August 23, 2019, 08:53:21 AM »
I'm curious why so many ppl want a BOE as soon as possible.

Some perhaps want (as in “desire”) a blue ocean event. Those here who may, don’t do so because they want it. They most often do so because it is now inevitable in the very near term, and they perhaps believe that a BOE might shock other people into understanding the severity of where we are, the urgency and magnitude of what must be done, and to actually do something meaningful.

However, I think that the problem isn’t that at all. I don’t think anyone on this forum seriously wants or desires a BOE. The folks here understand what a BOE portends. It is the ringing of the bell announcing the beginning of the catastrophic changing of the climate of the world in ways mankind can barely imagine.

Throughout our society and world, people process information differently. We are not all the same. Much of humanity processes information strongly through the lens of emotion, through fear, desire, and other emotional frames.

A much smaller part of humanity uses emotion, but separates that from logic, reason, analysis and the like, and processes primarily through reason colored by emotion.

An even smaller fraction takes this much further and processes information almost exclusively through reason with little involvement of emotion. Others go even farther, and not through choice but by genetic inclination, and simply lack certain emotions. Depending on which emotions they lack, you may find them as firefighters, or as sociopaths; extreme polar opposites. 

The mistake I believe is to presume that when people say, report, suggest, or predict things like a blue ocean event, that that means that they want or desire such a thing. That is a misinterpretation. Commonly that has as its origin the confusion that arises from trying to interpret someone else’s statements based on ones own internal setup. The same happens in reverse of course, with different wording and conclusions, such as someone processing information via logic concluding that another speaker is emotional and therefor irrational.

More fundamentally, the error starts in presuming that everyone else is just like ourself in how they process information, in what their abilities are, and all manner of other ways. So therefor .... they said XXX, which must then mean that YYY.

The BOE is coming. Nothing we (all of mankind) can do now will stop that, shy of some damn fool starting a large nuclear exchange and triggering a global winter for a decade. Even then, that will only temporarily delay the BOE. It won’t prevent it.

You should not read those words as me desiring such a thing. Neither should you read it as me fearing one farther off and choosing to try to scare people. Both interpretations would be and are entirely wrong. I mean by my words quite literally what they say, and nothing more. A BOE is coming. It will arrive very soon. And we now lack the ability to stop it. At the very best, using tragic means, we could delay it.

I believe, perhaps wrongly, that the much worse condition of a full year BOE might yet still be avoided. That will require the immediate concerted and united actions of everyone on earth. And those actions will have to be devastatingly large civilization ending scales of action to succeed.

But, I do not see any chance that humanity will choose to take such bold actions. As a result, I see no chance that we will avoid the much larger catastrophes to follow as a result.

I don’t desire any of those things. Desire has absolutely nothing to do with it.

Sam

mabarnes

  • New ice
  • Posts: 41
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 17
  • Likes Given: 38
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #21 on: August 23, 2019, 08:58:45 AM »
Not only NO, but HELL NO.

AmbiValent

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 136
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #22 on: August 23, 2019, 09:01:21 AM »
In which interpretation? Essentially no sea ice or just below 1Mkm^2? Extent or area?

I think the ice trend will continue to go down. An equilibrium that would avoid getting a BOE would be nice, but I find it very unrealistic.

I would prefer a real recovery, at least for some years, stalling the process, but if the question is just "Is it just inside or just outside the definition of a BOE?" (and I fear it will be exactly that) then I'd prefer the BOE.
Bright ice, how can you crack and fail? How can the ice that seemed so mighty suddenly seem so frail?

mabarnes

  • New ice
  • Posts: 41
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 17
  • Likes Given: 38
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #23 on: August 23, 2019, 09:13:10 AM »
I wanted to be the first to follow the requested instructions and just answer, not comment ... tho I suppose I broke that rule, mildly.

I don't understand those who desire doom and destruction, some verging on "apocalypse porn" even, when it comes to the ice.  I deal in a social science, so perhaps it's because I've learned the (sometimes costly) lesson - ALWAYS check your Assumptions.

So it seems misanthropic, some comments, wishing for disaster, even if to "wake up the world" ... to the disaster ... which if it doesn't happen wouldn't need anyone "woke" to it ... <continue circular reasoning here>.  Malthus was wrong.  Erlich was wrong.  Yes, SO FAR, for both.  But ... how many societies/cultures have reached steady, or even shrinking, population ALL BY THEMSELVES...?  Are people unaware that this is relatively common in "advanced" countries...? 

I'm hoping I don't see a BOE in my lifetime because that's a rational risk-averse position, even though study of history and technology leads me to be optimistic even if it warms, BOE is an annual thing, and the sea level rises 2 meters in my lifetime ... and covers the 8000 year old coral reefs at Jupiter Beach Florida, which are 2 meters above today's sea level.  It was on a visit to those reefs that I had a mild epiphany:  Things just might work out after all ... again.

Man is a tremendously adaptable species.  Filthy, rapacious, sure ... but adaptable all the same. The Dystopic Vision is fraught with assumptions.  And has ILL EFFECTS on health and well being - that consensus has long been "in" among doctors.  So relax, gents, and have a nice day. 
« Last Edit: August 23, 2019, 09:18:23 AM by mabarnes »

Pmt111500

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1885
  • Yes, I do not always bicycle
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 95
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #24 on: August 23, 2019, 09:32:18 AM »
I'm curious why so many ppl want a BOE as soon as possible.
Equating hopes and things to want. I might want a way to travel by a vehicle that's not using any fossil fuels in all it's lifetime, but there's no hope I could afford it LOL.
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

RikW

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 179
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 19
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #25 on: August 23, 2019, 09:55:01 AM »
My first hope is it never happens because I believe it will be catastrophic on the short (first 3 years after it), medium and long term;

My 2nd hope is that if it happens in the near future it will be because of an outlier which should happen soon to still be an outlier, will create havoc on the weather in the months after that and will make sure climate change is happening fast, while being an outlier gives humanity still the chance to change. And I hope the largest impact of it happening (even though I live there) are in North America and Europe, because we are the main culprit of climate change. And the evil part of me hopes it will be mostly in the USA in Republican territory...

My 3rd hope is that I won't see it happen in the near future and me and my kids won't suffer from the impact

Sam

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 134
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 116
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #26 on: August 23, 2019, 10:08:40 AM »
This is a poll I am very interested in. I would prefer you people don’t comment on your vote, just answer truthfully, or ignore it, please. Everything anonymous (or anoni-miss in deplorables dialect).

In case I wasn’t clear. I did not and will not vote at all. I believe the question and poll is malformed. It is based on an interpretation of how and why people respond as they do that has little to do with reality.

Because I believe it is malformed, I believe the results will be entirely meaningless.

And also as a result, despite your desire that people simply vote and not comment, the only meaningful vote is the opposite - no vote, and lengthy comment.

Sam

pleun

  • New ice
  • Posts: 34
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 9
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #27 on: August 23, 2019, 11:51:26 AM »
how can someone malform his own poll ? TS was looking for specific information and gave specific directions on how to get this. Think we should respect that.

now look what happened...

Adam Ash

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 306
    • View Profile
    • The 100 metre line
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 20
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #28 on: August 23, 2019, 12:12:54 PM »
The options presented each contain two potentially conflicting or unhelpful statements. 

One may wish to vote 'No' (as I do), but neither 'I'm hoping it won't ever happen' nor 'I don't know...' are useful qualifiers.

I don't want to see a BOE in the same way I don't want to see desertification of most of my country.

No.

karl dubhe2

  • New ice
  • Posts: 23
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #29 on: August 23, 2019, 12:28:40 PM »
Unless I die in the near future, I expect to see one.   

Hope has nothing to do with it.   The question is 'wrong', it's an emotional question, not a 'scientific' one.    Hope is a form of belief, and that's not something you do with scientific things.   Scientific theories and hypotheses (even vague speculations) are things you accept, or reject.   IMO anyhow.

I don't think that a BOE will affect those who are committed to continuing the burning of fuels, they're making money and are 'religiously' certain that there will be technical solutions to any problems that humans encounter. 


philopek

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 457
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 206
  • Likes Given: 40
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #30 on: August 23, 2019, 01:19:38 PM »
I'm split .. now or never . I chose one .. b.c.

dito

Since it's unavoidable the sooner the better for two reasons:

I. Wake-Up Call ( not probable, money, power and fame are still stronger ) :-(

II. To know the effects, better sooner than later, because those effects could finally see for a change


Klondike Kat

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 842
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 47
  • Likes Given: 56
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #31 on: August 23, 2019, 01:44:20 PM »
I am continuously surprised that so many posters are hoping to witness a BOE.  Is it the downfall of civilization that they hope to envision or just the novelty of an ice-free Arctic?  Perhaps they just want to see if their predictions of what a BOE will cause in the way of climatic changes come to fruition.

Richard Rathbone

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 533
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 39
  • Likes Given: 7
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #32 on: August 23, 2019, 01:53:32 PM »
A BOE is pretty irrelevant. It will be small beer compared to all the other stuff that happens as and when enough CO2 for a BOE to be possible accumulates. A BOE will simply be a symptom that we are living in a 2-3C world, it won't actually cause anything extra to happen in that world.

If we get there under BAU, I hope to live that long, but I also hope BAU dies in the next decade.

Niall Dollard

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 493
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 108
  • Likes Given: 29
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #33 on: August 23, 2019, 01:59:03 PM »
I definitely don't hope to see a BOE in my lifetime.

For the purposes of this thread I'll just call it a "statistical" BOE - ie a BOE with extent dipping  < 1,000,000 km2.

I think there is a pretty good chance though I may see an sBOE some time before 2030 and if things stay pretty much as they are, I'd say it near certainty there'll be an sBOE by 2040.

I am not sure though about the impact this may have -as a wake up call. Will it be all that different a wake up call as 2012 was ?

Even with an sBOE you will get deniers saying "look there is still plenty of ice" and post pictures of the 1 million km2 broken bits.

ASIF members will see it as a huge watershed but unfortunately I think most of the world is not too bothered by statistics, whether it reaches 0.9 million, 1.0 million, or 1.2 million.

In any case, by the time it gets to say 1.2 million and not quite an sBOE, I think we will be in serious trouble.
« Last Edit: August 23, 2019, 09:27:06 PM by Niall Dollard »

TeaPotty

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 219
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 38
  • Likes Given: 71
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #34 on: August 23, 2019, 01:59:27 PM »
Imagine denying that the data shows a BOE is only several years away.

Klondike Kat

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 842
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 47
  • Likes Given: 56
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #35 on: August 23, 2019, 02:16:13 PM »
A BOE is pretty irrelevant. It will be small beer compared to all the other stuff that happens as and when enough CO2 for a BOE to be possible accumulates. A BOE will simply be a symptom that we are living in a 2-3C world, it won't actually cause anything extra to happen in that world.

If we get there under BAU, I hope to live that long, but I also hope BAU dies in the next decade.

I tend to agree.  A BOE is a symptom and less likely to cause anything extra.  There may be compounding effects due to more open ocean, but it will just add to existing effects.  Also, a BOE will not be permanent, as the open ocean will likely lead to a more dramatic refreeze (at least in the subsequent winter).

Pmt111500

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1885
  • Yes, I do not always bicycle
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 95
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #36 on: August 23, 2019, 02:34:51 PM »
I'm not at all surprised of the current result. As the data shows no significant change in the accumulation of ghgs in the atmosphere is happening, hoping for a significant event that might induce a significant response from humanity isn't at all surprising. BOE would be a next in line, now after we've seen some heatwaves or extreme typhoons/hurricanes and somewhat messed up arctic weather has not been considered a sign of the times.
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

mabarnes

  • New ice
  • Posts: 41
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 17
  • Likes Given: 38
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #37 on: August 23, 2019, 03:55:44 PM »
I'm curious why so many ppl want a BOE as soon as possible.
Equating hopes and things to want. I might want a way to travel by a vehicle that's not using any fossil fuels in all it's lifetime, but there's no hope I could afford it LOL.

Here ya go ...  8)

https://www.equine.com/horses-for-sale/thoroughbred/9d04a660-8-yo-thoroughbred-gelding-low-level-hunter-prospect

DrTskoul

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1451
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 210
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #38 on: August 23, 2019, 04:46:34 PM »
I'm curious why so many ppl want a BOE as soon as possible.
Equating hopes and things to want. I might want a way to travel by a vehicle that's not using any fossil fuels in all it's lifetime, but there's no hope I could afford it LOL.

Here ya go ...  8)

https://www.equine.com/horses-for-sale/thoroughbred/9d04a660-8-yo-thoroughbred-gelding-low-level-hunter-prospect


Don't think its on topic but here you go: I do not think that there is a mode of locomotion today that will not use _any_ FF in all its lifetime.... Even with your two feet... So the bar is placed _quite_ high...

gandul

  • New ice
  • Posts: 86
  • de verdad
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 19
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #39 on: August 23, 2019, 04:52:31 PM »
I said "no comments". By the way, I like the comments. This forum is diverse.

For those who say the poll is malformed or not scientific, I wanted the emotional response of the forum. This construction will do. If one wants to respond NO and the answers don't exactly reflect what you feel, just choose one of the two "NO". Or pass. The same for YES. If the numbers come a bit corrupted that's fine.

Seems pretty divided to me.
And I have a lot of company.
No me lo trago

Sam

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 134
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 116
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #40 on: August 23, 2019, 05:03:34 PM »
The misconceptions involved in the question and the array of potential responses has the same relevance to anything as asking the question:

"Why do you you hope that unicorns will successfully rise up and take over Mars?"

A. "Because unicorns are fluffy descendants of wombats."
B. "Because I want to see an economic recovery in my lifetime."
C. "Because yellow is the most perfect color."

Sam

Yossarian80

  • New ice
  • Posts: 6
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #41 on: August 23, 2019, 05:31:58 PM »
In order to “hope” for something you need a reasonable chance of that thing happening.  I don’t sit around hoping for things that are near impossible...doing so is the equivalent of emotional suicide; not good for mental health.  I would be blown away with surprise if we make it past 2050 without a BOE... seems almost impossible and not really worth “hoping” for unfortunately. 

I’m starting to think there’s a less than 50% chance that we even make it past 2030.  I still voted no, but that’s my main issue with the poll... no reasonable “hope” left to avoid many climate impacts and effects, and this is one of them.  We are better off preparing than wasting time and emotional energy hoping for the near impossible.

jplotinus

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 126
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 13
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #42 on: August 23, 2019, 05:32:26 PM »
The action associated with the word “hope” centers in the desire component of human perception. I consider “desire” to be an emotional response, calling for consideration of how one feels about something or another thing.
For me, sea ice monitoring is not at all centered in emotion; rather, what I do here is utilize  as best I can the function of reason. There is reason to assert that a BOE is possible. All one has to do is observe Juan C Garcia’s daily posting of jaxa sie data and in particular the component of that posting listing the 1980s ave, the 1990s ave, the 2000s ave  and the 2010s ave. In so doing, one has reason to think (not hope) that a BOE may occur within the lifespan of people living now.

I will conclude by observing that it can be misleading to frame a question that conflates or confuses emotion for reason.

pearscot

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 149
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 44
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #43 on: August 23, 2019, 06:12:12 PM »
In my opinion, I don't foresee the rate of arctic sea ice decline to continue at linear rate - I think it's going to be a negative logarithmic function to which *some* ice will always exist, but not much.  I'm the last person on earth who needs to be educated on the vast array of unintended consequences of climate change, but I think a BOE, insofar as our climate is transitioning to the new holocene epoch, is still many years off. That's not to say that what occurred in 2007, 2012, and perhaps this year, are 'one off' events. I think that the system at large will continue to intake vast amounts of energy deep below the surface and given the exact 'perfect storm' of conditions we may witness a BOE within the next 20 years.

New features this year, such as the massive crack above Greenland to me really pique my interest and at the same time show that what was one the safe area of old ice no longer exists.
pls!

AmbiValent

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 136
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #44 on: August 23, 2019, 06:25:20 PM »
A BOE is pretty irrelevant. It will be small beer compared to all the other stuff that happens as and when enough CO2 for a BOE to be possible accumulates. A BOE will simply be a symptom that we are living in a 2-3C world, it won't actually cause anything extra to happen in that world.

If we get there under BAU, I hope to live that long, but I also hope BAU dies in the next decade.
I fear that while a single BOE just barely fitting the requirement might not mean much "extra", but the less sea ice there is to melt, the more we will move from an Arctic that spends the summer around 0C to a warmer one - and some regions will make the transition earlier than the rest. Or rather, we have clearly left the start of the transition behind us and are slowly on the way to the other side.
Bright ice, how can you crack and fail? How can the ice that seemed so mighty suddenly seem so frail?

Gray-Wolf

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 795
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 49
  • Likes Given: 152
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #45 on: August 23, 2019, 06:29:59 PM »
For these past three decades of battling to have the 'data/facts' heard above the drone of the Denier it has become amply clear that;

1/ The 'Denier' won and put us beyond avoiding AGW issues and into a time where we ought expect 'Black Swan Events' driving climate cascades that will impact all

2/ Humans are hard wired only to 'react' to clear and present danger to their own lives.....Fight or flight (I know there are exceptions but then do they not go to proving the 'rule' true??)

So I am now ,grudgingly, of the opinion that we need a global climate 'Hit' to raise the 'awareness' of the folk up to the dangers we all now exist within?

Our job (those who fought the good fight these past decades?) is to be there 'For The Many' when they suddenly realise the peril they face?

To 'bring them up to speed' on just what we have unleashed and might 'expect' to see?

A B.O.E. may well prove to be such an event that , unlike the Brazilian rainforest, will not spend 16 days effectively missing from the MSM until 'Social Media' (US??) forces them to run a piece on it?

I know it is a dower outlook but there you have it!

KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3105
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 400
  • Likes Given: 198
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #46 on: August 23, 2019, 06:40:58 PM »
I'm with Sam, and cannot vote in this poll.  And I love polls - my wife cannot believe how happy I am to answer political questions on the phone.  Once when visiting in Brisbane, Australia, my host got a polling call and said, "Nobody here wants to respond," and hung up, too late for me to volunteer.  :'(  Push polls are sometimes a bit tedious, so I just think about how the poor smuck on the other end of the line gets paid for completing a call, and I try to hang on.
Sorry, Gandul, but you are not a smuck!  ;)

My being certain a BOE will happen as a consequence of the CO2 already emitted (and in the atmosphere or oceans, etc.) (and utterly inevitable with BAU as we are experiencing it), I cannot reasonably "hope it won’t ever happen" and cannot claim "I don’t know if eventually it will happen".  And I certainly don't "hope" for the event, soon or otherwise.  As others have posted, I think a BOE will be one week's news, to be followed by a mass shooting (My hometown has had two this year; how many has yours had? "Squirrel!") or a superstar's wardrobe 'event' (Did you see that!  :o).

I try to keep hope in the arena of affirmation.  Paraphrased,
Quote
Those with hope will renew their strength.  They will soar with wings like eagles.
Isaiah 40:31
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

blumenkraft

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1535
  • Fans of Hans Club - circa 2018
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 682
  • Likes Given: 925
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #47 on: August 23, 2019, 06:48:10 PM »
I'm with Sam, and cannot vote in this poll.

+1

Sam is such a clever and knowledgeable person, people should read all his posts!!11!
Refugees welcome

nanning

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1042
  • 0Kg CO2, 35 KWh/wk,130L H2O/wk, No heating
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 150
  • Likes Given: 6861
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #48 on: August 23, 2019, 06:59:48 PM »
^^

Hi Tor, from the paraphrase, would it be possible for you to define "hope"? :)
I don't know what it means, does it mean the belief that things'll get better?

edit: with 'witness' I assume it means 'observe' via technological media.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

Sam

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 134
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 116
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #49 on: August 23, 2019, 07:27:38 PM »
Gandul (and others),

The crux of the difficulty I think we are having in society at large, and here as a microcosm of that, is a fundamental difference in how we each process information. For some, emotion plays a (if not 'the') central role. For others logic and data play the central role. For others yet it is a hybrid of these. And no doubt there are still others that do not easily fit this simple mental model.

Crudely (and wrongly), emotion is often seen to be focused in the right brain, where information seems to be processed in a manner that is very centered on the now, the local, the self, the family, ...  Language seems to be processed in a nonlinear way such that word order is unimportant, and negation (among may things) does not work. More often, communication as a larger set of language seems to focus on symbolic uses, and to heavily rely on relations and relationships among people and things.

Also crudely (and wrongly), logic is often seen to be focused in the left brain, where information seems to be processed in a manner that is very much centered around structured complex organizations of ideas, temporally segmented (far past, past, near past, present, near future, future, far future), spatially segregated (near, close, distant, far, irrelevant), prioritized (life threatening, critical, dangerous, caution, wariness, null, safe, irrelevant), and others ...  Language works as expected with negation and degrees of value.

This simple model is not correct. It is often useful as a crutch.

Within each of us, these two hemispheres operate semi-autonomously. Each is effectively a separate person, a separate identity and a separate self. The primitive brain adds a third identity to the mix and adds difficulty to the model. So too do other aspects, such as the spine, the physical heart, the gut and others.

In logical and relational processing, the two hemispheres and the primitive brain seem to dominate in importance, with the two hemispheres taking the lions share of that.

Both hemispheres take full ownership and responsibility for every thing the body does, thinking, believing and feeling they are the whole of the body and mind.

The difficulty we seem to be having in our discussions (here and in society) seems to be a difference in the relative weight given to which of these players is in control and dominates.

And just as in the 'mind', this leads to no end of confusion and misunderstanding.

Gandul (and others who want to chime in), you seem to process heavily using emotion as your basis. What brought you to the issue of climate change and the arctic ice? What motivates your concern(s)? What language grabs you to want to act?

I ask these questions sincerely. In the larger world of science (particularly of climate change and the arctic ice), many of us have difficulty understanding how to reach the broader parts of society who do not live enmeshed in data and science, and who are not primarily driven by logic. For me (and no doubt many of us), it is perplexing and baffling why the catastrophes we so clearly see crashing down on us fail to catch the attention of most people, let alone motivate them to urgent action.

Can you share any insights from your perspective and world view?  And again - mind you - my question is not about the facts. It is about motivations.

Thank you

Sam