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Poll

Are you hoping to witness a BOE?

Yes, ASAP
41 (44.6%)
Yes, in my lifetime
11 (12%)
No, I am hoping it won’t ever happen
28 (30.4%)
No, I don’t know if eventually it will happen, but don’t wanna see it
12 (13%)

Total Members Voted: 92

Voting closed: September 07, 2019, 12:03:30 AM

Author Topic: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?  (Read 10386 times)

kassy

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #100 on: August 26, 2019, 06:47:59 PM »
I was referring to the Gaia hypothesis, should have made that clearer. Perhaps I should have said that "the Earth's biosphere" wasn't a self-regulating and balancing system.

That does make a huge difference.

We have not seen global civilization collapse because global civilizition is very recent. And barring the huge volcano eruptions most other collapses were local. Collapse is something worse then just a long time of economic downturn.

The problem is that we ramp up the masterswitch(es) so global is now local.
 
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

wili

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #101 on: August 26, 2019, 06:52:27 PM »
Quote
the Earth is not a "self-regulating and balancing system". Some people have made that claim, but empirical evidence is sadly lacking.

I agree that this approach can be overstated, and I find Peter D. Ward's 'Media Hypothesis' (riffing on Lovelock's 'Gaia Hypothesis') to be a good corrective to some of the more extreme claims of the latter. But are you really denying that there are no feedbacks that can serve to regulate systems, at least to a point? There is a whole field in Biology that studies this, so it seems a bit of a stretch to say that there is no evidence to support any such dynamic.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth_system_science

But perhaps I am mis-reading your position here? If so, I look forward to your always eloquent further clarification! :)

Quote
Name me one example of global civilisational collapse
Name me one example of a continent-wide civilisational collapse

You seem to be saying here that if something has not happened before, it can never happen. This is an obvious logical fallacy. For the first claim, in particular, there has not really been a global civilization till quite recently. So here I must assume that I am misinterpreting your position in some way, for which, again, I breathlessly await further illumination from your general direction!

ETA: I see some of these have been addressed--and I agree that the original Gaia Theory went a bit too far. But do really reject all of Earth Systems Science?

Sam presents many examples of collapse. There is a fairly large and growing literature on civilization collapses and their causes. I'm not sure any of them rise to the level of continental collapse, but probably there are more than one definition of these terms being assumed here. Again, further clarity on these points would be appreciated.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

wili

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #102 on: August 26, 2019, 07:19:25 PM »
"... pesky lifeforms..."

????

Soooo, you agree that the temperature is self-regulating, but seem to forget that it is (primarily) CO2 that regulates the temperature, and that CO2 concentration is (or was until recently) largely regulated in the atmosphere by of those very same 'pesky lifeforms'...

Again, am I missing something here?
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

bluice

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #103 on: August 26, 2019, 07:49:29 PM »
Sam I don’t agree there was a global collapse during 5th & 6th centuries. Surely it wasn’t the best of times, but Byzantium muddled through and the Gupta empire thrived in India, just to name a couple of examples.

I do agree AGW has the potential to become a civilization-ending or even existential threat to us, but this is far from certain.
In PIOMAS we trust

philopek

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #104 on: August 26, 2019, 07:54:41 PM »
Sam I don’t agree there was a global collapse during 5th & 6th centuries. Surely it wasn’t the best of times, but Byzantium muddled through and the Gupta empire thrived in India, just to name a couple of examples.

I do agree AGW has the potential to become a civilization-ending or even existential threat to us, but this is far from certain.

He didn't mean that and in any case was mentioning continental collapses that happened and that during 5th/6th century were several local collapses and whether we want to call KNOWN collapses due to i.e. tectonic/volcanic events global or not can be discussed. For example the volcanic events he mentioned had a global impact and just because there are two documented collapses in the after math and on two continents, does not mean that there were no others among less literate/less developed cultures.

I think he made a great effort to hint into the right direction for those who are blunt deniers of those facts and it does make little sense to rip that effort apart and nitpick on it. It's generally a pity that once the main points were made we lose  ourselves in petty details instead of letting the main point stand.

At least one could begin a dispute with a "YES-But" instead of the usual no, nope or what-have-you. That would contribute a lot more positive energy to further allow for a fruitful discussion.
« Last Edit: August 26, 2019, 08:02:57 PM by philopek »

nanning

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #105 on: August 26, 2019, 08:01:19 PM »
@avalonian
Thank you for your acknowledgments. And your non-human-centric worldview!  ;D ;D  :-*

@sam
I have liked your posts :)

Quote
The green revolution didn't "save us". It gave us 30 years to solve our problems with population. Instead we ignored that problem and compounded it.

[sarc]Yes, our medical technological progression was great wasn't it? ;)[/sarc]
More importantly I think, it gave our soils and waters 50 years of poisons. Abhorrent treatment of animals.

@binntho
Quote
Name me one example of global civilisational collapse

Don't you see that especially the global part is an enormous (I like this word) vulnerability?

There will be only 1 example. I will not name it.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

bluice

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #106 on: August 26, 2019, 08:09:12 PM »
Sam I don’t agree there was a global collapse during 5th & 6th centuries. Surely it wasn’t the best of times, but Byzantium muddled through and the Gupta empire thrived in India, just to name a couple of examples.

I do agree AGW has the potential to become a civilization-ending or even existential threat to us, but this is far from certain.

He didn't mean that and in any case was mentioning continental collapses that happened and that during 5th/6th century were several local collapses and whether we want to call KNOWN collapses due to i.e. tectonic/volcanic events global or not can be discussed. For example the volcanic events he mentioned had a global impact and just because there are two documented collapses in the after math and on two continents, does not mean that there were no others among less literate/less developed cultures.

I think he made a great effort to hint into the right direction for those who are blunt deniers of those facts and it does make little sense to rip that effort apart and nitpick on it. It's generally a pity that once the main points were made we lose  ourselves in petty details instead of letting the main point stand.

At least one could begin a dispute with a YES but instead of the usual no, nope or what-have-you. That would contribute a lot more positive energy to further allow for a fruitful discussion.
What exactly was that direction? It’s obvious that environmental changes can and have caused societal collapse. We all know this.

What none of us do know is whether AGW will cause a global civilizations collapse. To claim otherwise is hubris. It is notoriously hard to predict the future.

I don’t agree with everything binntho writes, but I think he is 100% right there are many posters on the forum longing for a dystopian collapse.
In PIOMAS we trust

gandul

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #107 on: August 26, 2019, 08:12:21 PM »

[sarc]Yes, our medical technological progression was great wasn't it? ;)[/sarc]

You can remove the sarc from this sentence. You probably would have died as a child or in your mother’s womb were you conceived in xix century, so you should show a bit of thankfulness and respect for humanity, or some of its deeds.
No me lo trago

gandul

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #108 on: August 26, 2019, 08:19:45 PM »
The poll was great. I voted ASAP to raise political awareness, as for the effects I think we are starting to feel it.
Thank you all.
This thread has become an outlet for cheap philosophical messages. I’ ll try to close it now
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