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Poll

Are you hoping to witness a BOE?

Yes, ASAP
41 (44.6%)
Yes, in my lifetime
11 (12%)
No, I am hoping it won’t ever happen
28 (30.4%)
No, I don’t know if eventually it will happen, but don’t wanna see it
12 (13%)

Total Members Voted: 92

Voting closed: September 07, 2019, 12:03:30 AM

Author Topic: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?  (Read 9576 times)

petm

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #50 on: August 23, 2019, 09:27:08 PM »
For me it's simple: Humans have proven incapable of sufficient self control to forestall ecological disaster. So, Mother Nature will have to do it instead, and the sooner she does (incl. BOE), the less the long-term damage.

FrostKing70

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #51 on: August 23, 2019, 09:37:06 PM »
I expect a BOE to happen, but hope it never does.   "Hoping" was the key word in the poll for me....I never hope for a disaster, even when I expect it to happen.

HapHazard

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #52 on: August 23, 2019, 09:47:14 PM »
  • Yes, ASAP: Because we most likely won't change our ways quick enough otherwise. Not that I think it'll actually work or would change much at this point, but that it's our only "hope".
···
  • Yes, in my lifetime: Purely out of curiosity, both for the science/learning, & how society reacts. Partly emotionally for 2 reasons: "I told you so!" and I honestly (but to quite a small degree) feel like many of "us" (mostly corporations and politicians; those who crave money & power) deserve this calamity. I'm just being honest with myself here.
···
  • No: Because I want to continue to live in relative comfort. Because I know we're smarter than this. Because the future should be bright. Because, to me, a BOE represents human greed; it would be a massive billboard-like proclamation which can be seen from space. I'd be fucking embarrassed.

Off the top of my head. Dunno how to vote, honestly.  :o

philopek

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #53 on: August 23, 2019, 09:52:16 PM »
First I thought the same like Tor said but then it's about the word hope that should be replaced. of course i don't HOPE in the way to find it a great thing but then most understand how it was meant.

If we want to know the sad truth, we only have to watch what humans with free choice are eating.

It's obvious that an entity that is permanently and knowingly poisoning it's own body for reasons like fun and comfort, will never ever come close to what it takes to:

I. keep the next greater body (i.e. a marriage) healthy

II. Of course even less so te next greater body, i.e. family as a whole

III.Even less so of course all greater bodies like communities, countries etc.

IV. And far from coming close to keep an entire planet healthy.

It's impossible because humans are ill wired and the problem starts at the lowest possible
level that is to keep themselves healthy with a little effort that pays of so well.

And then there are some who indeed succeed in keeping their body healthy but
get so dogmatic in the process that their mind is suffering with an often even worse outcome.

Looking at things how they are and how they were described at all times, no matter which
philosophers or spiritual leaders with clean intentions, it's a systemic issue and only
a proper ethic, self-confidence and mental power and stability can in very rare cases
overcome.

I recommend to everyone, no matter what they believe, read the new testament and other worthy books of course, it's all described therein since thousands of years and no-one with a genuine
interest to understand how nature and humans especially "TICK" can say he wasn't told.

Instead most humans with the necessary capacity lose themselves in petty nitpicking, narrow mindedness, preferring to be the best in something instead of knowledgeable in most things and
talk about irrelevant details all their lives instead of tackling the root problems.

Envy, eternal competition, greed and such are the roots of all evil and AGW and other horrible results are only symptoms of the very same mental illness that is based mostly on lack of ego-control, boosted by too many who acclaim all kind of non-sense and bash unpleasant truths.
« Last Edit: August 24, 2019, 01:22:21 PM by philopek »

gandul

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #54 on: August 23, 2019, 11:41:49 PM »
The misconceptions involved in the question and the array of potential responses has the same relevance to anything as asking the question:

"Why do you you hope that unicorns will successfully rise up and take over Mars?"

A. "Because unicorns are fluffy descendants of wombats."
B. "Because I want to see an economic recovery in my lifetime."
C. "Because yellow is the most perfect color."

Sam
Ok, lol.
Fair enough.
I won’t change the poll, though. Thank you all that participated or commented (so far).
No me lo trago

Sahelian

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #55 on: August 24, 2019, 12:51:30 AM »
I'm surprised there haven't been comments from people who hope for a BOE because they think it'll be beneficial. Less ice should mean higher Sea Surface Temperatures, which should boost the anomalous heating of the Northern Hemisphere, which should drag the monsoon further north. There seems to be a teleconnection between Arctic sea ice and North Africa such that the extent of the former correlates to the aridity of the latter. An ice free Arctic should mean a far wetter and more liveable North Africa.

sailor

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #56 on: August 24, 2019, 01:01:29 AM »
One is human and may have a morbid curiosity on Arctic gradual or abrupt loss of ice; it’s also fascinating to watch all the physical processes it involves. OTOH I wish AGW didn’t exist. So, I can’t really answer.
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ShortBrutishNasty

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #57 on: August 24, 2019, 02:44:59 AM »
I've only read a sampling of the responses.

My response is that the question posed is not productive nor discriminating.

Next.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #58 on: August 24, 2019, 06:54:19 AM »
^^

Hi Tor, from the paraphrase, would it be possible for you to define "hope"? :)
I don't know what it means, does it mean the belief that things'll get better?

edit: with 'witness' I assume it means 'observe' via technological media.
Good question, Nanning.  hope = (something like) longing with a spiritual dimension. As in "hope in the Lord", "trust in the Lord" (other translations of Isaiah quote).  Maybe also (or another way of saying it) a 'not quite earned' dimension.  "Hoping your friend says 'Yes'" has a longing aspect and a need-for-afirmation aspect.  "Hoping a solution to the problem will emerge" is a request for revelations not quite earned, requiring insight or inspiration on top of hard work.  (With its fruition, something like some of Newton's and Einstein's revelations, but I think we all experience this occasionally.)
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

binntho

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #59 on: August 24, 2019, 07:12:01 AM »
Difficult word that. What does it mean in e.g. "Land of Hope and Glory"? (I'm assuming that Hope and Glory are not two ladies of that Land).

Other ways to use the word "hope" could be "inspiring hope", or the three theological virtues of "faith, hope and charity".
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

gandul

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #60 on: August 24, 2019, 01:12:36 PM »
Difficult word that. What does it mean in e.g. "Land of Hope and Glory"? (I'm assuming that Hope and Glory are not two ladies of that Land).

Other ways to use the word "hope" could be "inspiring hope", or the three theological virtues of "faith, hope and charity".
Hope is the word because it implies not only expectancy but also desire. It is also what causes the poll to be incomplete or flawed as people pointed out, because may expect one thing and desire another. Or may desire conflicting things, because desire is irrational.
This poll is not as the usuals here, but I'm happy with the engagement and with the results.
No me lo trago

gandul

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #61 on: August 24, 2019, 01:14:15 PM »
Imagine denying that the data shows a BOE is only several years away.
Which data are you referring to, specifically?
No me lo trago

Stephan

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #62 on: August 25, 2019, 11:50:43 AM »
I voted for "Yes ASAP".
Not because I'd like to see it happen (so also for me "hope" is a wrong word to describe it) but the public will once more see in how dire state our planet is. And this message to all (including AGW deniers) is essential and it will push the community fighting against climate change forward and may lead to further actions of the governments.
The same public attention may arise when atmospheric CO2 will reach 420 ppm, because it is exactly 50 % more than "preindustrial". 420 ppm will be as damaging to the climate as 419 ppm, but 419 ppm will only be noticed by experts and people like us in ASIF.

bluice

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #63 on: August 25, 2019, 01:16:41 PM »
Stephan, I feel that’s wishful thinking. IMHO people will demand action only when they personally feel the negative effects of AGW, and even this can be delayed by ideology.

The people in power OTOH will respond to these demands when their position in power is directly threatened, meaning economy must be hit by AGW or elections will be lost by not taking action. Undemocratic countries have somewhat different mechanisms, but the fundamental logic remains the same.
In PIOMAS we trust

philopek

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #64 on: August 25, 2019, 02:21:28 PM »
Stephan, I feel that’s wishful thinking. IMHO people will demand action only when they personally feel the negative effects of AGW, and even this can be delayed by ideology.

The people in power OTOH will respond to these demands when their position in power is directly threatened, meaning economy must be hit by AGW or elections will be lost by not taking action. Undemocratic countries have somewhat different mechanisms, but the fundamental logic remains the same.

This how you put it is exactly how it is.

Nevertheless, with each big event that frightens each time a few more people, we are slowly but surely to the historically proven point of public momentum of 27-29% of the population, where the positions of the people in power and the system as it is at a given moment is indeed endangered.
This means that one of your correct verdicts will then happen, while the other, that sufficient
people get afraid and feel threatened by what they see coming, happens some time before
that, it's basically the base of the later danger for the governments.

In fact it won't take that much anymore, look how more and more people vote (Trump, Orban, Salvini etc. etc.) a clear sign.

What it will take is a trigger. To imagine how this could turn out, we only have to imagine what happens if the shelves in supermarkets remain empty for some time and when ATMs won't spit money for some time.

It happened already on small scale in smaller countries, once it will hit larger nations the sh... will hit the fan for sure.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #65 on: August 25, 2019, 03:04:37 PM »
Climate change, by itself, does not rank at the top of the voters priority list.  However, since the economy has always ranked near the top, any financial demise as the result of climate change would have a major impact.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bankrate.com/surveys/presidential-election-survey-july-2019/amp/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/596623/

bluice

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #66 on: August 25, 2019, 06:54:31 PM »
Philopek may be I misunderstood you but people don’t vote populist right because they are worried about AGW.

But it’s true that at least in Europe people are becoming increasingly anxious about climate. A big reason for this is the personal experience of heatwaves this summer.
In PIOMAS we trust

philopek

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #67 on: August 25, 2019, 07:13:21 PM »
Philopek may be I misunderstood you but people don’t vote populist right because they are worried about AGW.

But it’s true that at least in Europe people are becoming increasingly anxious about climate. A big reason for this is the personal experience of heatwaves this summer.

Yes, misunderstanding, i was referring to that politicians only will react once their power is in danger and people only will react once their comfort-zone is endangered and hinted at that the political and economic developments are full of signs that this will happen sooner than many believe.

The voting habits is just one of them.

All this topics fill entire bookshelves, study and history wise and it's often difficult to touch
something with a restraint in space.

Usually those who consider history as a kind of script for the future, mostly due to various repating patterns, will understand the short form and sometimes the short-form is too short like in this case apparently. My apologies for not being more clear and thanks for giving me the opportunity to shed a tiny bit more light to my intention.

:D

gerontocrat

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #68 on: August 25, 2019, 08:43:27 PM »
Yes, and before 2030 because
- there is some sour satisfaction in seeing what you believed was going to happen - happen,
- if it happens after 2030 statistics suggest I will be either doo-lally or dead.

No, because
- then much of life on earth will really be waiting for extinction,
- I attach my posts "epitaph: damn, I wanted to see what happened next."
The events of which a BOE will be a part and the events after that will not be good to see. The motivation to keep soul attached to flesh, often a bit weak, will be weakened more.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

blumenkraft

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #69 on: August 25, 2019, 08:55:49 PM »
epitaph: "damn, I wanted to see what happened next."

For me, this is one of the most tragic sentences ever expressed in the history of mankind...
Refugees welcome

philopek

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #70 on: August 25, 2019, 09:04:42 PM »
Yes, and before 2030 because
- there is some sour satisfaction in seeing what you believed was going to happen - happen,
- if it happens after 2030 statistics suggest I will be either doo-lally or dead.

No, because
- then much of life on earth will really be waiting for extinction,
- I attach my posts "epitaph: damn, I wanted to see what happened next."
The events of which a BOE will be a part and the events after that will not be good to see. The motivation to keep soul attached to flesh, often a bit weak, will be weakened more.

You say it ;)

Similar to the return of Christ, Armageddon, Apocalypse and the likes.

Only that this will indeed happen since I will see my 100's birthday can't dodge the bullet probably.

[JK]

Cook

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #71 on: August 25, 2019, 09:56:44 PM »
I hope to see a BOE event ASAP because it will help kick humanity into action.

I hope we are mature enough to tackle climate change in a compassionate and productive way. Compassionate in the sense that people who are negatively effected are helped, and productive in the sense that the benefits, yes in spite of all the negatives there are in fact benefits, are recognized and utilized in a way that helps mankind, especially those who may locally lose land and the means to support themselves.

Finally, I pray that we figure out the basic fact that our planet is over populated by human beings and that we have an obligation to future generations to prevent mass extinctions and to protect habitats.

petm

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #72 on: August 25, 2019, 09:59:33 PM »
Usually those who consider history as a kind of script for the future, mostly due to various rep[e]ating patterns, will understand the short form and sometimes the short-form is too short like in this case apparently.

Quote
“History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes.”

Or,

Quote
“History,” it has been said, “does not repeat itself. The historians repeat one another.”

-- https://quoteinvestigator.com/2014/01/12/history-rhymes/

 ;)

Threebellies

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #73 on: August 25, 2019, 11:23:44 PM »
Usually those who consider history as a kind of script for the future, mostly due to various rep[e]ating patterns, will understand the short form and sometimes the short-form is too short like in this case apparently.

Quote
“History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes.”

Or,

Quote
“History,” it has been said, “does not repeat itself. The historians repeat one another.”

-- https://quoteinvestigator.com/2014/01/12/history-rhymes/

 ;)

Longtime lurker here, I thought it might be relevant to chime in to this discussion. Usually I don’t necessarily have incredibly insightful things to add to a board about ASI melting and the scientific discussion of that. Often, a reader finds well constructed comments, paper citations, objective, rational discussions, data, and well moderated delivery. It is appreciated. I highly doubt ASI loss, climate change, or the sixth mass extinction are areas which are really up for debate in here, for the extreme majority of participants, and perhaps even avid followers such as myself.

It therefore is a welcome break from the b.s. discussion which goes on in society at large. The discussion in society at large absolutely contains all of the emotional baggage of everyone and what the consequences of these events are. These people are in here studying it objectively and rationally.

It is not pretty if you think about it, no. But do we hold the heart surgeon guilty of maintaining a gore porn fetish necessarily because she displays an interest in cardiac and or pulmonary system sciences? Is the detective or investigator held morally responsible for trying to understand the minds of criminals? No of course not, society needs them too.

We’re lucky such a board remains public so that these kinds of folks’ discussion and 5 cents isn’t locked down, charges for, and moderated even more heavily so that content contributors and important discoveries aren’t locked away for their own protection from the general public of people who armchair question the moral motivations for these discussions from a point of view which is utterly irrelevant to the data which is observed.

I once worked in a plant virology laboratory, and we took bets sometimes when we’d attempt a quantitative analysis of some plant virus protein, how much might be in given regions and various plants. Was that morally questionable because we were investigating the nature of plant viruses?

We must be careful and appreciate this resource for what it is and not rush to put up such things which may give pause emotionally to the folks who put in a lot of effort for content. Waiting all hours of the day and night for data to come available from various buoys, international space agencies, ocean administrations, and published works in reputable journals. The data analysis performed on this site is sometimes used by media outlets even when talking about stories (often without due Citations!), hell there is another thread where it looks like /u/unicorn may be identifying previously unmapped, unnamed shoals as things melt out.

We need resources like what these fine ladies and gents here do, day in and out. A truthful objective resource based on data and not opinions is one of the most critical hangout spots I can imagine for Arctic climate geeks or just climate aficionados and professionals the world over. This is a treasure which would benefit if more important people paid attention to it, instead of attempting to shoot the messenger or morale the community out to be a bunch of doomsdayers or collapsers. It isn’t fair to the data or the planet either.

Thanks to you for you good posts over the time, PETM.

petm

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #74 on: August 25, 2019, 11:56:41 PM »
It is not pretty if you think about it, no. But do we hold the heart surgeon guilty of maintaining a gore porn fetish necessarily because she displays an interest in cardiac and or pulmonary system sciences? Is the detective or investigator held morally responsible for trying to understand the minds of criminals? No of course not, society needs them too.

Hi Threebellies. Excellent point and overall post. Glad you joined the conversation. :)

Villabolo

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #75 on: August 26, 2019, 02:24:21 AM »
I'm curious why so many ppl want a BOE as soon as possible.
Equating hopes and things to want. I might want a way to travel by a vehicle that's not using any fossil fuels in all it's lifetime, but there's no hope I could afford it LOL.

Here ya go ...  8)

https://www.equine.com/horses-for-sale/thoroughbred/9d04a660-8-yo-thoroughbred-gelding-low-level-hunter-prospect

There isn't enough feed for all the horses a nation would need in order to retire automobiles. I've posted this before but, it bears repeating:

https://sunbicyclesnashville.com/trikes.php

Slap an electric hub motor on, and you can go far.

My apologies to the OP for this digression.

And yes, I hope to see a BOE within my lifetime. Preferably in ten years. It's going to happen anyways, and we'll be unprepared for it no matter how long it takes.
« Last Edit: August 26, 2019, 02:30:35 AM by Villabolo »

oren

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #76 on: August 26, 2019, 02:40:46 AM »
It is not pretty if you think about it, no. But do we hold the heart surgeon guilty of maintaining a gore porn fetish necessarily because she displays an interest in cardiac and or pulmonary system sciences? Is the detective or investigator held morally responsible for trying to understand the minds of criminals? No of course not, society needs them too.

Hi Threebellies. Excellent point and overall post. Glad you joined the conversation. :)
+1

nanning

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #77 on: August 26, 2019, 07:38:44 AM »
<snip>
No, because
- then much of life on earth will really be waiting for extinction,

Dear gerontocrat, I don't understand that.
Can I ask you if you agree with these considerations?:

The longer the BAU: the higher the GHG level, the more habitat loss and poisoning.

After BOEs etc ..--> Collapse of anthropogenic destruction: No more BAU -> GHG levels off. Habitat loss stops. Poisoning stops. (OK we might get nuclear radiation but that'll probably happen anyway)

The longer the BAU: the greater the total mass extinction; the lower the remaining biodiversity.


If you're able to hold on for another 10 years, I'm certain you will not be disappointed. You probably don't want to see 'what's next' after that time.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

binntho

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #78 on: August 26, 2019, 07:48:03 AM »
Civilisation is not going to collapse from a BOE. And I for one do not believe that the current trend towards higher temperatures is going to cause any permanent collapse of civilisation.

But what worries me way more than any putative "hope for BOE" is the apparent "hope for civilisational collapse" thinking I see expressed here. Do people really hope for a civilisational collapse, with all the human suffering that implies?
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

philopek

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #79 on: August 26, 2019, 10:25:00 AM »
Civilisation is not going to collapse from a BOE. And I for one do not believe that the current trend towards higher temperatures is going to cause any permanent collapse of civilisation.

But what worries me way more than any putative "hope for BOE" is the apparent "hope for civilisational collapse" thinking I see expressed here. Do people really hope for a civilisational collapse, with all the human suffering that implies?

I don't think anyone "hopes" for that but then a collapse and related reduction in earth population is part of the natural corrective, no matter why, when and how it happens.

Some people like myself see and know a bit about the regulative mechanisms, the ways how nature
as a whole regulates things and a huge and nasty collapse will and has to happen.

This does by no means imply "hope" for it but it's kind of discussing the inevitable.

To anyone who is trying to refuse some future facts, based and past facts and sheer logic as well as laws of physics and mathematics, i recommend to read a bit in history books to get the bigger picture, no details, and then consider who survived such collapses and prospered thereafter (groups, not individuals) ?

Those who saw it coming and/or happening and took measures and you can be sure that before they (the survivors) took action they discussed things and at times even fought over solutions, similarly like we do here sometimes :D :D

binntho

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #80 on: August 26, 2019, 11:42:31 AM »
Civilisation is not going to collapse from a BOE. And I for one do not believe that the current trend towards higher temperatures is going to cause any permanent collapse of civilisation.

But what worries me way more than any putative "hope for BOE" is the apparent "hope for civilisational collapse" thinking I see expressed here. Do people really hope for a civilisational collapse, with all the human suffering that implies?

I don't think anyone "hopes" for that but then a collapse and related reduction in earth population is part of the natural corrective, no matter why, when and how it happens.


Well, you see, this is where I totally disagree. I do not think that a collapse and a reduction in earth population can be consideret in any form as a "natural corrective".

And I must admit that I find the rest of your posting rather disturbing, philopek. Do I discern a hope for mass death of the ignorant and the unwashed so that the few and brave "cognizants" can survive in a brave new post-apocalyptic world?

This is just pure nonsense.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

petm

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #81 on: August 26, 2019, 01:43:51 PM »
The main problem is that there won't be enough food. Societies do tend to collapse when that happens.

(Not caused (only) by a BOE, of course.)

Avalonian

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #82 on: August 26, 2019, 02:23:28 PM »

Well, you see, this is where I totally disagree. I do not think that a collapse and a reduction in earth population can be consideret in any form as a "natural corrective".

And I must admit that I find the rest of your posting rather disturbing, philopek. Do I discern a hope for mass death of the ignorant and the unwashed so that the few and brave "cognizants" can survive in a brave new post-apocalyptic world?

This is just pure nonsense.

From a palaeoecological perspective, I do tend to agree with Philopek here, and with Nanning in general... I try to consider the biosphere as a whole, rather than just humans, in my moral judgements, even though others will have different views on that. (That's fine, so long as nobody goes all moral absolutist on us..!) Regarding collapse: we have seen what happens when conditions change dramatically in geological time, such that the resources that used to be in place are no longer available: mass extinctions. We also know what happens when a species booms, and uses all the available resources in its environment: an inevitable bust, often taking other things with it due to the radical exploitation of resources. From an ecological perspective, humans are so far out of balance (Earth Overshoot Day, anyone?) that we're having to do all sorts of things involving unsustainable land use. The difference between us and locusts is that we get to affect the whole world. That's not a moral judgement; just an ecological observation, based on my understanding.

As for preparing for collapse, and trying to mitigate it by advance planning (while trying to prevent it where possible, of course!)... I don't see that we have any moral imperative to do anything else. As threebellies says, sometimes society needs people who have a sense of humour or a moral compass that we find distasteful, because they're the ones who can make a difference to the chances of survival of the rest of us. And if there is to be a collapse... well, I too can hope to be among the survivors, without wishing any ill on anyone else. That's just human nature, and blaming people for doing what they can to give themselves and their communities a chance a distraction from the real issue, IMO.

Oh, and since everyone has been commenting  on the poll anyway ( ;D ) I went for asap. Similar reasoning to Nanning; the longer this protracted but gentle decline goes on, the less likely governments (and people) are to act in the radical ways that we need them to. We need urgency, and we need it yesterday; a BOE is one of the things that might just generate it.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #83 on: August 26, 2019, 03:07:58 PM »
In conjunction with Avalonian, I tend to agree in general.  The big question is what is the carrying capacity of the earth (for humans)?  Edward Wilson wrote in his 2002 book, "The Future of Life," that the Earth could support about 10 billion people.  Others have argued that it is higher or lower.  As opposed to other life forms, which are totally dependent on the earth for support, mankind has altered the environment to support more life than would otherwise occur.  Some have argued that this will lead to more sudden and violent collapse, will others claim that this is sustainable.  Patricio Grassini has argued that crop yields have already begun to decrease.  Others have argued that sustainable agriculture can ensure future food production.  Difficult to say which way this will go.  All told, agriculture will determine the future of mankind.

Sam

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #84 on: August 26, 2019, 03:12:51 PM »
Civilisation is not going to collapse from a BOE. And I for one do not believe that the current trend towards higher temperatures is going to cause any permanent collapse of civilisation.

But what worries me way more than any putative "hope for BOE" is the apparent "hope for civilisational collapse" thinking I see expressed here. Do people really hope for a civilisational collapse, with all the human suffering that implies?

Binntho,

Once again .... the discussion here is about the impacts that catastrophic climate change will have. Prognosticating on those based on the science is -not- hoping (an emotional state) for them to happen.

A BOE in and of itself won't do anything to collapse civilization. However, the knock on effect of the absence of ice (the cold pole in the Earth's atmospheric and oceanic systems) will have on the thermodynamics that drive the circulation of the atmosphere and oceans will lead inexorably to the destruction of civilization.

This is not a hope. This is not a fear. Those are emotional states and reactions to conditions. We have to get that right. Emotion does not in any way control what happens to the environment, except in so far as emotion drives human actions and inaction. Emotion is not central or controlling. Physics is.

As and when the atmospheric circulation loses its cold pole driving force, major reorganization and changes are inevitable and unavoidable. Greenland will for at least centuries act as a brake on the sudden shift to a wholly different circulation. Whether that is enough is an as yet unanswered question.

However quite certainly the loss of the immense area of cold that is the Arctic Ocean and the continental land masses will have a dramatic effect. We are already seeing the beginnings of that with serious changes in the circumpolar jet stream, and the continental jet stream.

The circumpolar jet stream (the northern of the two that forms the boundary between the Ferrell and Polar atmospheric cells has all but disappeared for much of the year. It has been replaced by a highly disorganized set of circulations.

The continental jet stream (the jet stream we all recognize as "the" jet stream) has lost much of its driving force for much of the year. As the Arctic warms and the ice cover is lost, and with it the driving force for circulation, the jet stream has become highly erratic. It has exhibited great swings north and south that have in turn steered massive changes in weather dragging cold blasts far south and extreme warmth far north. It is already causing huge changes in the timing and amount of rain falling on the continents. This will get progressively more severe until finally the jet stream vanishes entirely.

At that point, the climate system shifts into a new and completely different mode. The Hadley, Ferrell and Polar cells will then cease to exist. They will be replaced by a circulation dominated by a single hemisphere wide Hadley circulation combined with some sort of polar condition that we lack the data to even model. This has happened for long periods in Earth's past. We know aspects of how it did behave. But we do not know enough to replicate this with models. This is the "equable" climate.

During the shift, rain, storms, heat, drought, wind and more will all under go massive changes. Agriculture depends on having a reasonably stable climate with predictable timing of temperature, and precipitation. That will be gone. Agriculture as we know it will end. It may continue in some changed form. However, the reliable conditions we have known will end.

With the end of agriculture and the loss of the food stuffs agriculture provides inevitably comes starvation and population collapse. With that comes mass relocation of populations, war and worse. Those will coincide with the end of human civilization as we know it.

Beyond this one effect, the impacts on other species, on drought, disease, and other factors will be equally immense.

These are not things that anyone hopes for. They are the inevitable end of the chain reaction that starts with the loss of the Arctic ice, which is signaled by the BOE. That in turn isn't a simple thing. The first ice free day in the Arctic won't be the end. The first ice free summer (months long) may be. The first ice free spring and fall almost certainly will be. And the first ice free Arctic winter absolutely will be.

I asked earlier about the emotional driving forces in people's thinking. And this is why. A large portion of the population has their thought processes dominated by emotion. That serves us well for local things (local in both time and space). It does not serve us well outside of those. To the contrary, it serves to tremendously confuse the discussion and to dramatically limit action.

It should be the reverse, but it isn't. Fear of the impacts should drive massive action to prevent the actions that lead us exorably to the end of civilization and deep into the sixth great extinction event. But fear doesn't work that way. Fear inhibits reason. And that prevents the very deep analysis required to understand the problems and to developing and implanting the actions required to prevent catastrophe. Fear instead leads to avoidance, opposition and paralysis

Emotional thinking in this regard is a huge negative. It leads to misplaced assignment of people's motivations. It leads to the erroneous belief that people want or hope for tragedy to happen. And that ends up derailing the very discussions that are required to meaningfully understand what is happening and to then doing anything to prevent it.

We have to get past this.

Sam

« Last Edit: August 26, 2019, 03:21:54 PM by Sam »

Sam

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #85 on: August 26, 2019, 03:19:48 PM »
In conjunction with Avalonian, I tend to agree in general.  The big question is what is the carrying capacity of the earth (for humans)?  Edward Wilson wrote in his 2002 book, "The Future of Life," that the Earth could support about 10 billion people.  Others have argued that it is higher or lower.  As opposed to other life forms, which are totally dependent on the earth for support, mankind has altered the environment to support more life than would otherwise occur.  Some have argued that this will lead to more sudden and violent collapse, will others claim that this is sustainable.  Patricio Grassini has argued that crop yields have already begun to decrease.  Others have argued that sustainable agriculture can ensure future food production.  Difficult to say which way this will go.  All told, agriculture will determine the future of mankind.

KK,

Too often the carrying capacity of the Earth is taken as being dome fixed value. It isn't. The carrying capacity is dynamic. It depends on a huge array of factors. And it is hysteretic. Once exceeded for long enough to force collapse, the very conditions that allowed it to be that large will have changed in huge ways that dramatically reduced the carrying capacity.

Sam

binntho

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #86 on: August 26, 2019, 03:22:30 PM »
Agriculture, and food production in general, will indeed be the decisive factor. And the real and imminent threat from AGW is the very real possibility of falling agricultural yields.

I remember back in the 80's when the newly published "State of the World 2000" was the talk of the day. That, and other similar Malthusian predictions, have a tendency to fail spectacularly. Of course, one of them might come true, but I don't really expect that to happen.

But I do not think that there is any self-regulating Gaia and if one wants to talk about the moral dimension, then in this case there is only one: The Human one.

"Collapse of civilisations" has historically only happened locally (logical enough, since the only global civilisation is still ongoing), and there aren't really that many good examples of civilisational collapse. The only ones we really have are various collapses of American Indian civilisations due to localised climate change or overuse of resources, I guess if we had better information we would find the same thing in other continents. But these were all tiny, or protracted, or both.

But our current civiliasation will not collapse due to AGW. What may happen is that large numbers of people will die from starvation. In the 1930s and 1940s we counted them in the tens of millions, this time round it might be in the hundreds of millions. But civilisational collapse? Not really.

And hundres of millions dying from starvation in Farawaystan will not change the consumption patterns of us wealthy westernes to any real degree.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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gandul

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #87 on: August 26, 2019, 03:33:05 PM »
As a collapse of a civilization due to climate change we have the notable example of the first Egyptian Kingdom. The few texts translated speak of a swift horrendous fall into hunger, chaos, cannibalism and disappearance.
Recently it was linked to an abrupt cooling of the Atlantic Ocean. So imagine today. But many other tribes didn't notice such drastic changes (Nile lowering level and shifting meanders, desert overtaking entire cities, etc).
No me lo trago

philopek

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #88 on: August 26, 2019, 03:35:38 PM »
And I must admit that I find the rest of your posting rather disturbing, philopek. Do I discern a hope for mass death of the ignorant and the unwashed so that the few and brave "cognizants" can survive in a brave new post-apocalyptic world?


Your feeling disturbed does not change the smallest of historical, physical, astrophysical, philosophical and/or psychological facts.

I could now start a huge post as to what your being disturbed means and where to put it but in short, your KIND of political correct, facts denial and denial of laws of nature as well as denial of laws of physics is in large part responsible for that nothing has happened even though we know whats comming since decades if one had a close look.

The same way you deny what i say and find it disturbing, what's happening now and next, economically as well as ecollogically, has been denied for decades by those who stand there, play Mr. and Mrs. nice and say "but you can't say that, it's cruel"

That you try to put me into the corner of someone who wishes anything bad to people is not only offensive, evil and dirty playing, it's also part of the concept of our leftist societies that as well has been leading to where we are now and where we are heading.

First people lie to themselves and then to all others and to justify their lies they try to undermine the reputation of those who look, see and state the truth, nothing really new and either you are very young, or a first class hypocrite or both and that you call the truth non-sense is making a lot very clear and obvious. Even if you disagree, I know that it's no non-sense at all because up to this very day it has been like this for thousands of years without one exception.

So if anything is non-sense is to deny things that have happened in the past and are happening right now again and behead the messenger, because that's what you're trying to do, if not literally then still symbolically.

BTW i want to thank to all those who like my posts and are not so disturbed like others, after all 100 likes of 300 posts is a rather nice quota that I'm  even a bit positively surprised about ;) ;) ;)
For me that means not all is lost and not all the pearls are thr........etc. etc.
« Last Edit: August 26, 2019, 03:53:06 PM by philopek »

Sam

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #89 on: August 26, 2019, 03:58:39 PM »
Agriculture, and food production in general, will indeed be the decisive factor. And the real and imminent threat from AGW is the very real possibility of falling agricultural yields.

I remember back in the 80's when the newly published "State of the World 2000" was the talk of the day. That, and other similar Malthusian predictions, have a tendency to fail spectacularly. Of course, one of them might come true, but I don't really expect that to happen.

But I do not think that there is any self-regulating Gaia and if one wants to talk about the moral dimension, then in this case there is only one: The Human one.

"Collapse of civilisations" has historically only happened locally (logical enough, since the only global civilisation is still ongoing), and there aren't really that many good examples of civilisational collapse. The only ones we really have are various collapses of American Indian civilisations due to localised climate change or overuse of resources, I guess if we had better information we would find the same thing in other continents. But these were all tiny, or protracted, or both.

But our current civiliasation will not collapse due to AGW. What may happen is that large numbers of people will die from starvation. In the 1930s and 1940s we counted them in the tens of millions, this time round it might be in the hundreds of millions. But civilisational collapse? Not really.

And hundres of millions dying from starvation in Farawaystan will not change the consumption patterns of us wealthy westernes to any real degree.

You certainly need to read more and emote less.

Malthus prediction was reasonable within the bounds of the problem as he understood it. His understanding was far from complete. His simple analysis didn't include compensations. And compensations of all sorts play major roles in systems. That does not make his prediction wrong. It simply delays when it happens to a point after the compensations lose their ability to prop up the system.

For example: in the latter half of last century the development of the Koch and Haber processes for fixing nitrogen and producing fertilizer dramatically compensated for the depletion of natural nitrogen fertilizers. Those did not change the fact that there is a limit to agriculture based on fertilizer. It did greatly extend the time until we reach that limit. But that came at a series of costs measured in pollution, increased population, decreased nutrients, huge distortions in the natural world, and inevitably a vastly more severe collapse once the ultimate limits are reached and exceeded. The green revolution didn't "save us". It gave us 30 years to solve our problems with population. Instead we ignored that problem and compounded it.

Your belief or lack there of that the Earth (Gaia) is self regulating changes nothing about the existence and functioning of the Earth as a self regulating and balancing system.

Collapse of civilization has been global many times in the past. Continent wide collapses have been common in human history. Argument to the contrary is simply ignorance.

And again, your personal limitations based on belief in no way control reality. Reality is. Physics is. Thermodynamics is. These control what ultimately happens, not belief or lack of belief.

Sam

binntho

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #90 on: August 26, 2019, 04:13:08 PM »
It's actually a bit uplifting to be assumed to be young - but I must put it to you sirs, Sam and philopek, that I believe myself to be both older and better read than both of you. And nothing that you have written so far convinces me otherwise.

And the willingness to go for the personal attack is simply astounding. Are you by any change North American?

First to Sam:

  • The Earth is not a "self-regulating and balancing system". Some people have made that claim, but empirical evidence is sadly lacking.
  • Name me one example of global civilisational collapse
  • Name me one example of a continent-wide civilisational collapse

And to Philopek:
  • What facts of nature am I denying?
  • Which things that have happened in the past am I denying?

But I would like to apologize to philopek if I have misconstrued his earlier posting. However, I read it in the light of my earlier question, whether there actually were people who were hoping for civilsational collapse. And that talk of "survivors" and statements like "a huge and nasty collapse will and has to happen" makes me want to reconsider my apology. But never mind, take it or leave it as you wish!
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

Sam

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #91 on: August 26, 2019, 04:18:48 PM »

First to Sam:

  • The Earth is not a "self-regulating and balancing system". Some people have made that claim, but empirical evidence is sadly lacking.
  • Name me one example of global civilisational collapse
  • Name me one example of a continent-wide civilisational collapse

Your ignorance is simply astounding. Start by reading Ostwald Spengler. Then we can talk.

Sam

philopek

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #92 on: August 26, 2019, 04:25:32 PM »
It would be easier to discuss whether the skies are blue or not, that at least depends on where and when, but this ......

Over and Out @Binntho, that's too much, you won (in your world)

binntho

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #93 on: August 26, 2019, 04:28:09 PM »

First to Sam:

  • The Earth is not a "self-regulating and balancing system". Some people have made that claim, but empirical evidence is sadly lacking.
  • Name me one example of global civilisational collapse
  • Name me one example of a continent-wide civilisational collapse

Your ignorance is simply astounding. Start by reading Ostwald Spengler. Then we can talk.

Sam

That's one of the quickest jumps out of a rhetorical hole I've ever seen! And you seemed so certain earlier!

And even though old Spengler had some interesting ideas, I would be rather loath to use him as my authority in any argument that pretended to have a scientific basis.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

bluice

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #94 on: August 26, 2019, 04:31:18 PM »

First to Sam:

  • The Earth is not a "self-regulating and balancing system". Some people have made that claim, but empirical evidence is sadly lacking.
  • Name me one example of global civilisational collapse
  • Name me one example of a continent-wide civilisational collapse

Your ignorance is simply astounding. Start by reading Ostwald Spengler. Then we can talk.

Sam
Surely you can mention some examples? We all know civilizations come and go but you claimed there are precedents of global civilizational collapse. I, for one, don’t know any.
In PIOMAS we trust

Juan C. García

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #95 on: August 26, 2019, 04:31:38 PM »
I vote for:
"No, I don’t know if eventually it will happen, but don’t wanna see it"

but there is no option in which I would agree 100%. I would like the following option:

"I think that eventually it will happen, but I am not hoping to see it happen"

Maybe I should vote for: "No, I am hoping it won’t ever happen", but there is not the "Remove vote" option. The wish that I have is a reaction of humanity against AGW, before it happens. But I am not seeing that reaction, so I think that eventually, it will happen.
« Last Edit: August 26, 2019, 05:06:31 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

binntho

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #96 on: August 26, 2019, 04:34:51 PM »
It would be easier to discuss whether the skies are blue or not, that at least depends on where and when, but this ......

Over and Out @Binntho, that's too much, you won (in your world)

So I take it that you have no answers to my simple questions. Well it's easy to accuse others of ignorance and stupidity and what have you, but it can quickly become tricky when you have to justify those claims.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

MyACIsDying

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #97 on: August 26, 2019, 05:46:54 PM »
<snip>

  • The Earth is not a "self-regulating and balancing system". Some people have made that claim, but empirical evidence is sadly lacking.
  • Name me one example of global civilisational collapse
  • Name me one example of a continent-wide civilisational collapse

<snip>

I'm not sure if I'm getting your perspective right but in terms of temperature, the earth is definitely self-regulating. In danger of sounding condescending I will try to explain anyway, because either way it's a key point to understanding how our thermostat works and I wasn't well aware until recently myself.

All matter with a temperature greater than absolute zero emits thermal radiation. The Stefan–Boltzmann law states that the total energy radiated per unit surface area of a black body across all wavelengths per unit time (j*) (also known as the black-body radiant emittance) is directly proportional to the fourth power of the black body's thermodynamic temperature T: j* = σ T^4.

This means if you'd take a 0 degree (K) earth and let it fly around the sun for a million years, it will steadily increase in temp until it reaches an equilibrium where the emittance matches the incoming solar radiation.

The law is applied to earth in the wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stefan%E2%80%93Boltzmann_law#Effective_temperature_of_the_Earth.

The added complexity of the atmosphere and albedo fine tune our thermostat but will never be able to override this core strive towards temperature equilibrium.

binntho

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #98 on: August 26, 2019, 05:57:48 PM »
<snip>

  • The Earth is not a "self-regulating and balancing system". Some people have made that claim, but empirical evidence is sadly lacking.
  • Name me one example of global civilisational collapse
  • Name me one example of a continent-wide civilisational collapse

<snip>

I'm not sure if I'm getting your perspective right but in terms of temperature, the earth is definitely self-regulating. In danger of sounding condescending I will try to explain anyway, because either way it's a key point to understanding how our thermostat works and I wasn't well aware until recently myself.


Thanks for the correction. I was referring to the Gaia hypothesis, should have madet that clearer. Perhaps I should have said that "the Earth's biosphere" wasn't a self-regulating and balancing system.

Physics is, after all, both self-regulating and balancing. It's the pesky lifeforms with their localised decrease in entropy that are the problem!
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

Sam

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Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« Reply #99 on: August 26, 2019, 06:39:35 PM »
Surely you can mention some examples? We all know civilizations come and go but you claimed there are precedents of global civilizational collapse. I, for one, don’t know any.

They are plentiful. Within the historic record, Spengler and Toynbee provide detailed histories for a huge number of civilizations. Their theses about the collapse of those civilizations are for the most part about internal processes, with some external. Environmental collapse plays a role in that.

The most recent collapses of this sort include the dark ages in Europe following environmental shifts, particularly in the 5th and 6th century, coincident with the collapse of the Maya and populations across meso america as drought ended their ability to support their civilization. These were likely caused by the impacts of the eruptions of Krakatoa in 416 and 535, and Ilopango in 539-540..

The Harappan civilization is another that is almost certainly an environmental collapse. Ditto a civilization in the Arabian Peninsula. Many of these are temporally linked like the Mayan and European collapses following the major eruption of Karakatoa in 535, and the eruption of Ilopango in 539-540.

The eruption of Thera circa 1642–1540 BCE obliterated the Minoan culture and dramatically impacted all of the cultures around the Mediterranean Sea, with impacts that girdled the globe.

Ample and serious as they were, these were all relatively minor environmental shifts involving drought of a decade or so in duration, or darkening of the skies from massive volcanic eruptions. They reshaped entire continents as civilizations collapsed, people migrated, wars ensued and history suddenly changed.

Before these there were the dramatic shifts in environment that led to the formation and loss of the great Saharan and African lakes and the verdant ecosystems they supported, as well as at least two different successive cultures that flourished in what is now the Sahara desert.

The bigger shifts affected populations long before the modern record in the time pre-"civilization". These include the the dramatic changes at the end of the last ice age that drowned Doggerland, and indundated huge swaths of the Pacific Northwest in the United States with episodic catastrophes from the repeated filling and draining of Lake Missoula, and Lake Bonneville; and the Black Sea Deluge in the late pleistocene. At about the same time, the great lake Lahontan and the related pluvial lakes of Utah and Nevada supported the founding populations of the Americas. There are many many more.

The largest are farther back yet with events like the eruption of the Toba Supervolcano that nearly extinguished all major primates 75,000 years ago, and that almost certainly played a key role in the ending of the separate existence of the Neanderthals and Denisovans as they merged with the African Homo line. This likely also involved at least two other branches of the tree of man that we have genetic indications of in our human ancestry, but for which we have no bones or other paleological evidence.

The disruption we are headed into is on a scale much larger than a super volcano erupting. It will play out more slowly, but with vastly greater impact.

And that is the point here. The Arctic is our proverbial canary. It is our early warning about that which is to come. That is what makes it so very important.

Even more importantly, the arctic is a major factor in the driving forces for the atmosphere and the oceans. And when we lose that, we lose everything we know. That is simple physics. We are thermodynamically close to the edge on maintaining the atmospheric and oceanic circulations that support our world.

There won't be any possible adaptations to replace those. They are simply too big and too important to everything. We can find replacements for iron, copper, aluminum and other minerals. We can find ways to make fertilizers from air. But we can't replace the circulation of the air and the oceans. They are simply too fundamental to all life on earth.

Sam