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philopek

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #100 on: October 01, 2019, 11:19:07 PM »
Yes, that was something that I was curious about, why the ice edge on the Barents and Kara sea didn't move all that much over summer, especially because of all that warm salty water.

the reason is quite simple, at least the main reason that makes the difference:

Ice was driven over months towards the islands and piled up against them due to ice-drift.

I think the experts call this "ridging" and since the tendency continued over much of the melting season there was simply no ways that the ice there was able to melt in usual terms.

gandul

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #101 on: October 01, 2019, 11:45:30 PM »
What is first the chicken or the egg?
The egg came first. A proto chicken laid an egg with a small change in the DNA that made it the first chicken.
Well, there are internal factors, as the sinking force caused by ice presence dictates current flow, but depending where’s the ice is, the flow strength fluctuates, with some delay effect as massive currents  have lots of inertia, right? delay is the kind of thing that easily causes intrinsic pseudo cyclical behavior even in absence of external weather or flow fluctuations.

That’s what I am behind of with the egg-chicken thing, let me know when you stay away from the pot and the drinks for long enough.
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #102 on: October 02, 2019, 12:27:59 AM »
Ice was driven over months towards the islands and piled up against them due to ice-drift.
So those 3 island groups are basically preventing the ice from drifting too much into the hot salty waters of the Kara and Barents sea? It's a weird situation there, because the hot salty water seems to stay on the other side of the islands as well.

I wonder if the slowdown of the Gulfstream has something to do with the lack of ice loss on that side...
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #103 on: October 02, 2019, 12:30:26 AM »
Let me know when you stay away from the pot and the drinks for long enough.
I try to restrict my drinking to ones every 2 weeks, but when I drink, I drink hard, and I can be an ashole sometimes when I'm in a bad mood...

My apologies for my bad behavior the other day!
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philopek

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #104 on: October 02, 2019, 12:40:30 AM »
I wonder if the slowdown of the Gulfstream has something to do with the lack of ice loss on that side...

I don't think so in a currently significant manner.

Let's not forget that even though there may be a slow down, the waters are warmer i general, hence one would have to carefully calculate which effect is overruling the other.

Further as far as i can observe, the Atlantic warm waters flow ever farther east along the Russian coast. I think it has mostly to do with prevailing winds/currents and with the more mobile ice conditions.

In spring and during summer we could very well observe the thicker than usual ice north of the islands and since the north of the islands are in "Lee" current-wise it got kind of stuck there.

Of course what remains is to further carefully watch the coming seasons to see whether a pattern
is developing or not. Nothing is certain these day (or ever)


Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #105 on: October 02, 2019, 01:14:40 AM »
Let's not forget that even though there may be a slow down, the waters are warmer i general, hence one would have to carefully calculate which effect is overruling the other.
I found this article. Interesting read!

Quote
When the current is faster, more of the warm, salty tropical water travels to the North Atlantic. Over years this causes more glaciers to melt, and eventually the freshwater makes the surface water lighter and less likely to sink, slowing the current.

When the AMOC is in a slow phase, the North Atlantic becomes cooler, ice melt slows, and eventually the freshwater melt source dries up and the heavier saltier water can plunge down again, which speeds up the whole circulation.

Recent high-tech tracking of the AMOC itself to suggest that its strength fluctuates as part of a roughly 60- to 70-year, self-reinforcing cycle.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/07/180718131128.htm
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RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #106 on: October 02, 2019, 04:50:32 AM »

The ice extent reaching Svalbard after a few years of it melting out, even in winter, suggests a change in where the warm currents are going rather than variations in wind direction. Perhaps it's some oscillation in the turbulent mixing that goes on in the Fram Strait. My own theory is that the warm water has to go somewhere, and my guess is to the north coast of Greenland and from there to the Nares strait. It'll be interesting to see if the Nares stays open all year.

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #107 on: October 02, 2019, 06:45:38 AM »
7d hindcast mean...
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #108 on: October 02, 2019, 10:35:35 AM »
What surprised me this year is the heat in the Atlantic. That "cold blob" is as good as gone, and the oceans around Greenland are especially hot this year. That would explain why Greenland is still having melt days this late in the season, but I don't understand it. The melting of the Greenland ice cap was enormous this year, and thus you'd think that the ocean would be cooler with all that cold meltwater. So what happened?

This is a comparison between 2018 and 2019. Notice also that the hot spot anomaly west of Svalbard has grown significantly. I haven't seen that before. I know that this hot spot has been debated before, and is thought to be an error, but why is it getting bigger this year?
« Last Edit: October 02, 2019, 04:00:33 PM by Freegrass »
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #109 on: October 02, 2019, 11:00:05 AM »
Well, we may find out that the great AMOC slowdown isn't occurring.
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #110 on: October 02, 2019, 11:41:15 AM »
I didn't know that there isn't a consensus yet under scientists that the AMOC slowdown is happening. I thought that this was settled science. (let's not debate that here)
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #111 on: October 02, 2019, 12:05:50 PM »
I read that one recently, Freegrass:

Atlantic Ocean may get a jump-start from the other side of the world

Quote
A key question for climate scientists in recent years has been whether the Atlantic Ocean's main circulation system is slowing down, a development that could have dramatic consequences for Europe and other parts of the Atlantic rim. But a new study suggests help may be on the way from an unexpected source -- the Indian Ocean.

...

The researchers said their modeling indicates a series of cascading effects that stretch from the Indian Ocean all way over to the Atlantic: As the Indian Ocean warms faster and faster, it generates additional precipitation. This, in turn, draws more air from other parts of the world, including the Atlantic, to the Indian Ocean.

With so much precipitation in the Indian Ocean, there will be less precipitation in the Atlantic Ocean, the researchers said. Less precipitation will lead to higher salinity in the waters of the tropical portion of the Atlantic -- because there won't be as much rainwater to dilute it. This saltier water in the Atlantic, as it comes north via AMOC, will get cold much quicker than usual and sink faster.

"This would act as a jump-start for AMOC, intensifying the circulation,"

Link >> https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/09/190916114032.htm
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sark

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #112 on: October 02, 2019, 12:50:45 PM »
CanSIPS T2Ma for November is nearly exact same result as a month ago
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Pavel

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #113 on: October 02, 2019, 12:59:15 PM »
Now it is October and we can see the SMOS thin ice thickness map. The survived ice in the Laptev side is really thin. Thanks to the August weather that slush have survived

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #114 on: October 02, 2019, 01:09:39 PM »
"This would act as a jump-start for AMOC, intensifying the circulation,"
Why did you leave out the next sentence?
Quote
"This would act as a jump-start for AMOC, intensifying the circulation," Fedorov said. "On the other hand, we don't know how long this enhanced Indian Ocean warming will continue. If other tropical oceans' warming, especially the Pacific, catches up with the Indian Ocean, the advantage for AMOC will stop."
I also think that the melting Greenland ice cap will produce a lot more fresh water to dilute that saltier ocean water than rain. But that's just MHO...

Isn't there a thread about the AMOC yet?
« Last Edit: October 02, 2019, 01:31:54 PM by Freegrass »
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #115 on: October 02, 2019, 01:47:04 PM »
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
October 1 - 7

Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #116 on: October 02, 2019, 01:58:39 PM »
Why did you leave out the next sentence?

Because the question was "is there a consensus?".

Quote
Isn't there a thread about the AMOC yet?

Yes.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=post;topic=1755.80;last_msg=229197
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #117 on: October 02, 2019, 02:16:12 PM »
Because the question was "is there a consensus?".
And I think the answer is yes. There is a consensus that something is going on with the AMOC. A lot of research will still need to be done to find out exactly what, but I guess we can agree that if there's a slowdown of the AMOC, that this could be a reason why the ice on the Atlantic side isn't melting as fast as the other parts of the arctic ocean. Is that a reasonable compromise?
« Last Edit: October 02, 2019, 03:25:35 PM by Freegrass »
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SimonF92

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #118 on: October 02, 2019, 02:42:29 PM »
I would like to see a publication or higher level interpretation of this blob of doom which has persisted off SW Svalbard for ~4 years.

I wonder if it has anything to do with the AMOC.

Yes, thats a SSTA of 13 degrees Celsius.

Edit; im aware that its very unlikely this is actually a real SSTA value, probably closer to +3 or 4, but still, why?

johnm33

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #119 on: October 02, 2019, 03:14:31 PM »
Why?
I'm thinking there are several 'strings' of Atl. water flowing according to the bathymetry of the Greenland/Norwegian seas. The northernmost following the shelf where Barents begins. These currents are pressed to move north into the Arctic proper for this they have to climb over the deep outflowing current, as they climb their inherent spin [they've been approaching the axis of rotation for some time] forces them into vortices where the various fractions sort themselves out but they also interefere with one another, so some excess heat will be released but perhaps the sensors are also detecting the turbulence of the interefering vortices.

SimonF92

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #120 on: October 02, 2019, 03:20:31 PM »
Great explanation John, but why this persistence? A decadal swing in the location of these vortices or forcing due to sea ice changes?

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #121 on: October 02, 2019, 04:27:34 PM »
I wonder if it has anything to do with the AMOC.
That's what I always thought. I thought that maybe the AMOC changed its path a little somehow, and is now bumping into Svalbard, causing it to rise to the surface, heating it up.
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SimonF92

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #122 on: October 02, 2019, 05:59:05 PM »
I wonder if it has anything to do with the AMOC.
That's what I always thought. I thought that maybe the AMOC changed its path a little somehow, and is now bumping into Svalbard, causing it to rise to the surface, heating it up.

A valid hypothesis!

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #123 on: October 02, 2019, 06:31:28 PM »
... but I guess we can agree that if there's a slowdown of the AMOC, that this could be a reason why the ice on the Atlantic side isn't melting as fast as the other parts of the arctic ocean. Is that a reasonable compromise?

Sorry mate, my pet theory is quasi the opposite. ;)

IMHO there is an Atlantification of the Arctic going on. We see Atlantic water go as far as the ESS.
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #124 on: October 02, 2019, 07:03:24 PM »
... but I guess we can agree that if there's a slowdown of the AMOC, that this could be a reason why the ice on the Atlantic side isn't melting as fast as the other parts of the arctic ocean. Is that a reasonable compromise?

Sorry mate, my pet theory is quasi the opposite. ;)

IMHO there is an Atlantification of the Arctic going on. We see Atlantic water go as far as the ESS.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/atlantification-arctic-sea-tipping-towards-new-climate-regime
OCEANS 25 June 2018  16:00
‘Atlantification’ of Arctic sea tipping it towards new climate regime
Quote
The research, published in Nature Climate Change, finds that warming conditions and decreasing sea ice volume “may soon” see the Barents Sea complete a transition from cold, fresh Arctic waters to a warm, salty Atlantic regime.

If current trends continue, the transition could occur “around 2040”, the lead author tells Carbon Brief. This would have “unknown consequences” for the wider ecosystem and commercial fishing, the study warns.

I think - well before 2040
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Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #125 on: October 02, 2019, 07:38:29 PM »

Edit; im aware that its very unlikely this is actually a real SSTA value,

Here are the SSTs west of Svalbard from the Norwegian Met in colour contours at 2 C intervals. Orange 4 to 6 C, Red 6 to 8 C.

The Norwegian Ice Service states that "Sea surface temperatures are included as contours from thermal infrared imaging satellite data".

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #126 on: October 02, 2019, 08:29:41 PM »
I wasnt aware (until today) that the old Norwegian Met Ice Service and charts, previously available at http://polarview.met.no/ (url no longer works) are now available in a new revamped website at:

https://cryo.met.no/en

I've just perused through this site and it is a treasure trove of charts and data. ASIF members, bookmark it ! 

Maybe mods would like to add it to the ASIG section ?

Here is a sample of some of the images available on the website  (Mosaic view of Sentinel 1 images) :

https://cryo.met.no/sites/cryo.met.no/files/latest/SAR-mosaic-latest.png
« Last Edit: October 02, 2019, 08:37:51 PM by Niall Dollard »

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #127 on: October 02, 2019, 08:31:34 PM »
ASIF members, bookmark it ! 

Done! Thank you, Niall. :)
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #128 on: October 02, 2019, 08:33:14 PM »
Sorry mate, my pet theory is quasi the opposite. ;)

IMHO there is an Atlantification of the Arctic going on. We see Atlantic water go as far as the ESS.
It looks like Gerontocrat's graphs spell doom for my AMOC slowdown theory... :(
Or does it? I'm not giving up yet! hehe  :P

What if the Barents is warming because the slowdown of the AMOC - and probably other factors - causes it to rise more to the surface - hence the hotspot west of Svalbard -  and thus instead of the hot Atlantic water sinking to the deepest parts of the Arctic, it stays high, and heats up the Barents?

I'm not arguing! I'm just a big believer in the AMOC slowdown theory, and I'm not gonna give up defending it yet! ;)

Edit:
The AMOC splits already, so I think that my theory isn't all that crazy. It could be that the Barents sea arm of the AMOC is getting stronger, while the Fram arm is getting weaker.

Is there any data available on this?

« Last Edit: October 02, 2019, 10:08:39 PM by Freegrass »
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #129 on: October 02, 2019, 10:56:48 PM »
I just read somewhere of a ~60 year cycle of AMOC speeding up and slowing down associated with something else - something like, (1) AMOC slows, more cold water sinking faster, AMOC speeds up; (2) AMOC speeds up, less cold water sinking, AMOC slows.
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johnm33

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #130 on: October 03, 2019, 02:19:21 AM »
Great explanation John, but why this persistence? A decadal swing in the location of these vortices or forcing due to sea ice changes?
Well I'm only guessing but it seems that as Atl. waters penetrate deeper into the Arctic more Arctic waters are forced out, whether on the surface or close to the deepest level. The loss of Barentz sea ice seems to be a key factor, so I assume the complex surface it once presented to tidal currents acted as a baffle, this gone allows a smoother inflow which in turn accelerates penetration. I've said elsewhere that it seems that currents are residuals of tidal flows and that currents on the scale we're examining appear to flow like slime bodies  So with more Atl. waters induced north in the general run of things only to be frustrated in their passage by particular circumstances we see persitent anomolies that wax and wane, related [i think] to the forcing of more variable surface outflows.
This season I expected a much earlier breakthrough of surface waters in the CAA, and more surface flow through Fram neither of which occured so perhaps there's been a significant increase in outflow  at depth through Fram forced by Atl. water ingress and in turn forcing Atl. waters ingress - evening out yet gently accelerating tidal fluctuations.

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #131 on: October 03, 2019, 05:31:58 AM »
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sark

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #132 on: October 03, 2019, 06:34:44 AM »
+/- 200 meters

5 day running average height anomaly for the bottom half of the atmosphere, for September 2019

This is a violent start to the season of obscene weather in the Arctic.  October.  November.  There will be a SSW or splitting or both in DJF.  Arctic air outbreaks pinwheeling around Hudson Bay.

200 meter blobs meeting at the North Pole on the first day of October.  Good God.

Ocean oscillations + Ocean heat + solar minimum + thin sea ice + sudden loss of dimming

I think people are confusing weather with a restructuring of the atmosphere.

* https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_nh_anim.shtml

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binntho

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #133 on: October 03, 2019, 08:48:03 AM »
What if the Barents is warming because the slowdown of the AMOC - and probably other factors - causes it to rise more to the surface - hence the hotspot west of Svalbard -  and thus instead of the hot Atlantic water sinking to the deepest parts of the Arctic, it stays high, and heats up the Barents?

This is an incredibly persistent misconception. The warm Atlantic currents are surface currents. They do not "rise more to the surface" since that's where they are to begin with.

And hot (or warm) water does not sink unless external factors make them sink, of which there are basically two that can operate in tandem:

1) The hot (warm) water cools down on the surface, and due to it's high salt content it ends up sinking.
2) The hot (warm) current meats freshwater and sinks in spite of being warmer, since the salt content makes it heavier.

But then comes the "AMOC is slowing down" hypothesis which is based on increased amounts of fresh water (meltwater from Greenland) diluting the hot (warm) Atlantic surface water and stopping it from sinking!

Since the sinking of the (cooled-down) surface current is thought to be a large driver behind the AMOC (perhaps constituting 1/3 of the total), when less cooled-down water sinks due to lower salinity, the AMOC loses power and starts slowing down.

Some people who seem to like posting pet theories here about the AMOC seem to lack the most basic understanding of how it works.
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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #134 on: October 03, 2019, 11:40:43 AM »
Some people who seem to like posting pet theories here about the AMOC seem to lack the most basic understanding of how it works.
Isn't this a place to gain more knowledge?
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binntho

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #135 on: October 03, 2019, 01:10:52 PM »
Some people who seem to like posting pet theories here about the AMOC seem to lack the most basic understanding of how it works.
Isn't this a place to gain more knowledge?

Some people start by reading up on the easier and more accessible texts before regaling others with their pet theories. Particularly when it comes to the more serious threads such as this one.

There are other threads, such as https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,143.0.html and particularly https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2274.0.html where intellectual laziness is more acceptable.
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Aleph_Null

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #136 on: October 03, 2019, 01:29:34 PM »
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg231743.html#msg231743

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 9/28 to 10/3, Forecast: 10/3 to 10/6.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #137 on: October 03, 2019, 01:40:49 PM »
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
October 2 - 8

Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
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Pavel

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #138 on: October 03, 2019, 01:53:18 PM »
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
October 2 - 8

Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
The colder temperatures exactly where the ice pack is. It's about a week until the inner basin should start to refreeze very quickly. But we'll see how it will go this year since it was the highest AWP in summer this year

be cause

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #139 on: October 03, 2019, 02:15:04 PM »
Free(grr)ass   .. gaining more knowledge can be done by reading the past .. your lack of knowledge could be overcome readily . AMOC and Svalbard's ghost hotspot have been frequent topics of discussion .
nothing new has been added to the debate in several years .. just new posters repeating .
 I usually avoid this thread now .. after multiple visits daily since 2013  . Thank you ! As you well know I cannot afford your continual delivery of self-loading mp4's .

 Lorenzo has dropped by (N. Ireland ) .. wind and rain steadily increasing . A lot of L's energy is heading toward the Arctic , mostly via Greenland . Temps are forecast to briefly reach >0'C at the pole in a few days.
  Those last few days record low ice days from  2007 look like being replaced by 2019 later this month .
b.c.
 
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #140 on: October 03, 2019, 02:52:32 PM »
gaining more knowledge can be done by reading the past .. your lack of knowledge could be overcome readily .

As you well know I cannot afford your continual delivery of self-loading mp4's .
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SimonF92

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #141 on: October 03, 2019, 03:12:18 PM »
Free(grr)ass   .. gaining more knowledge can be done by reading the past .. your lack of knowledge could be overcome readily . AMOC and Svalbard's ghost hotspot have been frequent topics of discussion .
nothing new has been added to the debate in several years .. just new posters repeating .
 I usually avoid this thread now .. after multiple visits daily since 2013  . Thank you ! As you well know I cannot afford your continual delivery of self-loading mp4's .

 Lorenzo has dropped by (N. Ireland ) .. wind and rain steadily increasing . A lot of L's energy is heading toward the Arctic , mostly via Greenland . Temps are forecast to briefly reach >0'C at the pole in a few days.
  Those last few days record low ice days from  2007 look like being replaced by 2019 later this month .
b.c.
 


Most regrettable you feel like that, I always welcome being able to read contributions that foster my own understanding and I have always felt that this forum has a brilliant tolerance to those less knowledgeable.

Mozi

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #142 on: October 03, 2019, 03:50:31 PM »
Free(grr)ass   .. gaining more knowledge can be done by reading the past .. your lack of knowledge could be overcome readily . AMOC and Svalbard's ghost hotspot have been frequent topics of discussion .
nothing new has been added to the debate in several years .. just new posters repeating .
 I usually avoid this thread now .. after multiple visits daily since 2013  . Thank you ! As you well know I cannot afford your continual delivery of self-loading mp4's .

I agree. It's admirable to want to learn about these topics but when the discussion here is dominated by those who (to put it kindly) are still in the process of learning, that dilutes the value of this thread which used to be filled by people who knew what they were talking about. There are other places on this forum to ask questions on pet theories or learn the basics.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #143 on: October 03, 2019, 04:10:42 PM »
Free(grr)ass   .. gaining more knowledge can be done by reading the past .. your lack of knowledge could be overcome readily . AMOC and Svalbard's ghost hotspot have been frequent topics of discussion .
nothing new has been added to the debate in several years .. just new posters repeating .
 I usually avoid this thread now .. after multiple visits daily since 2013  . Thank you ! As you well know I cannot afford your continual delivery of self-loading mp4's .

I agree. It's admirable to want to learn about these topics but when the discussion here is dominated by those who (to put it kindly) are still in the process of learning, that dilutes the value of this thread which used to be filled by people who knew what they were talking about. There are other places on this forum to ask questions on pet theories or learn the basics.
It's only normal that when a forum like this grows, that people will show up that haven't had the privilege to study the arctic for multiple years. When you tell people like that to go away, they will, and this forum will stay small.

I see this thread more as the main ASIF thread. A place to discuss and learn about the arctic. There are other threads for pure data and science. Let this place be a place where people like me can learn, and get involved.

I try to contribute to this forum with my videos. Many people like them, some people don't. Those that don't, can just put me ignore, and all those videos will disappear.

So use the ignore button, or accept the fact that we're not all scientists.
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #144 on: October 03, 2019, 04:54:54 PM »
What if the Barents is warming because the slowdown of the AMOC - and probably other factors - causes it to rise more to the surface - hence the hotspot west of Svalbard -  and thus instead of the hot Atlantic water sinking to the deepest parts of the Arctic, it stays high, and heats up the Barents?

This is an incredibly persistent misconception. The warm Atlantic currents are surface currents. They do not "rise more to the surface" since that's where they are to begin with.

And hot (or warm) water does not sink unless external factors make them sink, of which there are basically two that can operate in tandem:

1) The hot (warm) water cools down on the surface, and due to it's high salt content it ends up sinking.
2) The hot (warm) current meats freshwater and sinks in spite of being warmer, since the salt content makes it heavier.

But then comes the "AMOC is slowing down" hypothesis which is based on increased amounts of fresh water (meltwater from Greenland) diluting the hot (warm) Atlantic surface water and stopping it from sinking!

Since the sinking of the (cooled-down) surface current is thought to be a large driver behind the AMOC (perhaps constituting 1/3 of the total), when less cooled-down water sinks due to lower salinity, the AMOC loses power and starts slowing down.
Meanwhile over 90% of the increased energy trapped by rising CO2 ppm is going into the oceans, and the North Atlantic is getting its fair share.
The Air temperature in the Arctic is warming at twice the world average.
The Albedo Warming Potential of seas like the Barents which are so much more ice-free much earlier in the melting season is rising quickly - (See the "May June July" line in the graph I attach again).

So my speculation that belongs to me is that a slowing AMOC might slow down the Atlantification of the Barents - (which then advances into the Kara, then the Laptev?) but cannot stop it. Timing - I have neither the maths nor the bank of supercomputers. Got a few hundred million bucks to spare?
_______________________________________-
ps: The ESS is being attacked from both sides - earlier melt in Laptev & Chukchi, and from the south - a warming Siberia.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #145 on: October 03, 2019, 05:25:51 PM »
Meanwhile over 90% of the increased energy trapped by rising CO2 ppm is going into the oceans, and the North Atlantic is getting its fair share.
The Air temperature in the Arctic is warming at twice the world average.
The Albedo Warming Potential of seas like the Barents which are so much more ice-free much earlier in the melting season is rising quickly - (See the "May June July" line in the graph I attach again).

So my speculation that belongs to me is that a slowing AMOC might slow down the Atlantification of the Barents - (which then advances into the Kara, then the Laptev?) but cannot stop it. Timing - I have neither the maths nor the bank of supercomputers. Got a few hundred million bucks to spare?
+10 (if that were possible)
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be cause

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #146 on: October 03, 2019, 06:00:39 PM »
The trouble with the ignore button is that I'd rather not remove your or anyone elses posts from my potential viewing . Everyone has something worthwhile to bring at least occasionally ..
  As I'm up in court for sentencing tomorrow for giving free grass to a number of people with serious medical needs I may not be here for the next 6 months (or even 7 years) .. I am considered a 'persistent offender' having 8 previous convictions for 36 similar offences . These will be taken into account .
       just b.c. :)
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #147 on: October 03, 2019, 06:16:04 PM »
fuck!  :'(
Refugees welcome

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #148 on: October 03, 2019, 06:19:58 PM »
The trouble with the ignore button is that I'd rather not remove your or anyone elses posts from my potential viewing . Everyone has something worthwhile to bring at least occasionally ..
  As I'm up in court for sentencing tomorrow for giving free grass to a number of people with serious medical needs I may not be here for the next 6 months (or even 7 years) .. I am considered a 'persistent offender' having 8 previous convictions for 36 similar offences . These will be taken into account .
       just b.c. :)
Let us hope you receive Justice, not The Law.
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #149 on: October 03, 2019, 06:28:24 PM »
Take care of yourself, too, b,c,.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.