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SteveMDFP

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #150 on: October 03, 2019, 06:32:13 PM »
  ..
  As I'm up in court for sentencing tomorrow for giving free grass to a number of people with serious medical needs I may not be here for the next 6 months (or even 7 years) .. I am considered a 'persistent offender' having 8 previous convictions for 36 similar offences . These will be taken into account .
       just b.c. :)

I am so sorry to read these words.  You're in NI?  I sense that's among the most conservative areas in the British isles.  To be punished for being kind is a profound injustice.  Maybe a gazillion emails from us to the judge might help?  I wish I could do something.

dnem

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #151 on: October 03, 2019, 07:17:40 PM »
Yikes. Very best to you, b.c. I hope you get a good result.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #152 on: October 03, 2019, 07:58:07 PM »
The trouble with the ignore button is that I'd rather not remove your or anyone elses posts from my potential viewing . Everyone has something worthwhile to bring at least occasionally ..
  As I'm up in court for sentencing tomorrow for giving free grass to a number of people with serious medical needs I may not be here for the next 6 months (or even 7 years) .. I am considered a 'persistent offender' having 8 previous convictions for 36 similar offences . These will be taken into account .
       just b.c. :)
So sorry to hear that BC. FreeGrass doesn't mean giving away grass for free. It's just my way of saying "Free The Weed". Freedom for cannabis users. I've been fighting that fight for almost 40 years now, and if I were you, I would tell your lawyer to bring up the "Declaration of Principles on Equality". My conclusion after 40 years is that (illegal) drug users are being discriminated against. Why are deadly hard drugs like alcohol and cigarettes legal, and other, less harmful drugs, illegal? Why doesn't society like me? Because I use a much safer drug than alcohol? You've seen what alcohol can do to me... So the current drug laws are in conflict with the anti-discrimination laws. That's my end conclusion on the drugs debate...

Anyway... This is waaaayyyyyyyyyy OT. I didn't want to reply because at first I thought you were pulling my leg, but then I saw all the replies, and thus... Read this...

Declaration of Principles on Equality
https://www.equalrightstrust.org/ertdocumentbank/Pages%20from%20Declaration%20perfect%20principle.pdf

Good luck!
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #153 on: October 04, 2019, 05:00:11 AM »
Facts About the Arctic in October 2019

Thanks for the mention B. See also:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/09/the-mosaic-expedition/#Oct-04

Quote
We finally found the piece of ice that will be the home for Polarstern for the next year. It’s a floe a few kilometers in diameter and with thickness ranging from half a meter to a few meters.

Photo credit: Janek Uin, Brookhaven National Laboratory
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Feeltheburn

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #154 on: October 04, 2019, 06:47:32 AM »

Early snow traps heat in the ground and in the ice. Instead of the surface being able to radiate heat directly to and through the atmosphere (say - 40°C) it has to conduct the heat through all those nice air pockets in the snow. On sea ice it would effectively lower the number of FDDs

Early snow = slows down heat loss (insulator)
Late snow = slows down heat gain (albedo, specific heat of melt to overcome before ice and ground heat up, insulator)

Of course and model would depend on the latitude and time of year

Interestingly, a similar argument was put forth a couple years ago during a fast refreeze of arctic ice. The proponent stated that arctic ice forming too quickly traps heat under the ice that would overwise be released into the atmosphere if open water remained for a longer period of time. Thus, fast early refreeze is bad because it traps too much heat in the ocean that will later result in faster melting.

This year extent has been increasing much more slowly than that year. According to the hypothesis, that may mean more heat is now escaping from the ocean into the atmosphere, which would be a good thing. It may result in short-term warmer air temperatures but faster cooling of the ocean.

I have been lurking around here for about 3 years and explanations for what's going on seem to change every year. However, to be consistent and make sense of it all, I try to recall, compare and contrast all the different hypotheses to come up with a consistent synthesis.

Returning to the hypothesis, the proponent seems to have been right because after fast early refreeze, maximum extent ended up being one of the lowest, if not THE lowest, on record up till that point. Therefore, if the hypothesis was correct then it should be correct now, which means after a slow initial refreeze we might see an increase in maximum extent compared to previous years. If not, then the hypothesis was just a lucky guess, nothing more.
Feel The Burn!

Feeltheburn

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #155 on: October 04, 2019, 07:04:29 AM »
So sorry to hear that BC. FreeGrass doesn't mean giving away grass for free. It's just my way of saying "Free The Weed". Freedom for cannabis users. I've been fighting that fight for almost 40 years now, and if I were you, I would tell your lawyer to bring up the "Declaration of Principles on Equality". My conclusion after 40 years is that (illegal) drug users are being discriminated against. Why are deadly hard drugs like alcohol and cigarettes legal, and other, less harmful drugs, illegal? Why doesn't society like me? Because I use a much safer drug than alcohol? You've seen what alcohol can do to me... So the current drug laws are in conflict with the anti-discrimination laws. That's my end conclusion on the drugs debate...

[Sorry, totally off topic, but interesting nonetheless.]

Freegrass, I don't know where you live, but in the U.S. cannabis is slowly being legalized in more and more states. Most of the Dem candidates seem to be for federal legalization. More and more conservatives are getting on board too as more data is produced showing the benefits of weed compared to many legal drugs that are more harmful. There are cannabis conferences popping up all over the place, involving merchants and lawyers. Hemp-derived CBD is essentially legal nationwide since 2018 but regulatory schemes are still in doubt. The FDA may screw it all up as they often do.

Anyway, I don't think your fight has been in vain. Attitudes toward weed have liberalized radically over the past few years.

Although I have never been a pot user, I became interested in the commercial aspects of it because a fried of mine came up with an interesting product (combo drug). Also, I developed a terrible pain in my shoulder and neck about a year ago and found great relief using a topical salve I purchased in one of the states that legalized pot. I currently live in a state that doesn't yet permit the sale of cannabis, only the sale of hemp CBD. I therefore developed my own very effective topical pain salve that contains CBD (and presumably no more than the legal limit of 0.3% THC) and other components. It has miraculously cured my pain better than the stuff I bought before.

Anyway, this is no "snow job" so hopefully on topic!
Feel The Burn!

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #156 on: October 04, 2019, 07:51:38 AM »
Thanks for the mention B.

Welcome, Jim! :)

I'm a subscriber of your blog now and see all new posts in my RSS-reader.

sark

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #157 on: October 04, 2019, 08:15:54 AM »
Winter Hype
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sark

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #158 on: October 04, 2019, 08:18:15 AM »
bbr, give us a way to send blessings.  post paypal here or in pm.  defense
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Neven

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #159 on: October 04, 2019, 09:47:06 AM »
  As I'm up in court for sentencing tomorrow for giving free grass to a number of people with serious medical needs I may not be here for the next 6 months (or even 7 years) .. I am considered a 'persistent offender' having 8 previous convictions for 36 similar offences . These will be taken into account .
       just b.c. :)

Wow, that sucks. Good luck, I hope you have a good judge in a good mood.

Meanwhile, September 2019 didn't break any regional records, but was stil second warmest on record overall, and the third time after 2006 and 2016 to be above freezing (in my spreadsheet):
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sark

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #160 on: October 04, 2019, 10:01:47 AM »
I'll have to take over A-Team's position on this venerable board and start posting updates for you all to follow
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #161 on: October 04, 2019, 11:30:56 AM »
I'll have to take over A-Team's position on this venerable board and start posting updates for you all to follow

You'll have to do a lot more than that to "take over A-Team's position on this venerable board"!

By way of example please see:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2906.msg231704.html#msg231704
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

sark

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #162 on: October 04, 2019, 11:34:46 AM »
I'd have to quit my job and start writing!  Jeez

isn't it something to break major news on our Atmospherics thread? Pulling hard for us.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2692.msg231865.html#msg231865
« Last Edit: October 04, 2019, 12:15:05 PM by sark »
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #163 on: October 04, 2019, 02:25:39 PM »
Mercator (model) SST with unihamburg amsr2-uhh overlay at 60% transparent (0% concentration set to fully transparent) sep24-oct3. click to run
Warm pacific water still entering the chukchi from the pacific. Atlantic 'battle of the bulge' continues. Refreeze apparently making headway in the Laptev

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #164 on: October 04, 2019, 02:50:31 PM »
... and CAA.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #165 on: October 04, 2019, 03:38:20 PM »
I'll have to take over A-Team's position on this venerable board and start posting updates for you all to follow

You'll have to do a lot more than that to "take over A-Team's position on this venerable board"!

There are few here who could match the content, both breadth and depth, of A-Team. Hopefully this is snark.

dnem

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #166 on: October 04, 2019, 03:45:19 PM »
Def just a joke. A-Team always disparaged the usefulness of the DMI 80N temp data.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #167 on: October 04, 2019, 11:12:14 PM »
Dnem,
Your earlier post was, to me, obviously a joke:  A-Team and that graph  -   ::)
Where's the emoticon with actual rolling eyes?
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sailor

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #168 on: October 04, 2019, 11:25:22 PM »
Mercator (model) SST with unihamburg amsr2-uhh overlay at 60% transparent (0% concentration set to fully transparent) sep24-oct3. click to run
Warm pacific water still entering the chukchi from the pacific. Atlantic 'battle of the bulge' continues. Refreeze apparently making headway in the Laptev
Seems to me that Pacific inflow keeps temperatures up at Chukchi and even Beaufort, but the drop at ESS coasts seems ominous. A lot of snow has fallen over East Siberia already. Ice may form near the coast soon.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #169 on: October 05, 2019, 02:17:50 AM »
Seems to me that Pacific inflow keeps temperatures up at Chukchi and even Beaufort, but the drop at ESS coasts seems ominous. A lot of snow has fallen over East Siberia already. Ice may form near the coast soon.

You're not suggesting that ice forming in the ESS soon is ominous are you? It became ice free very early and now shows that it will be freezing very late.

I suspect I have misunderstood you. What is ominous is how long the ESS is ice free,

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #170 on: October 05, 2019, 07:31:52 AM »
Ice drift map from 25th.

jdallen

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #171 on: October 05, 2019, 09:04:11 AM »
From the extent/area data thread...
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
October 4th, 2019:
     4,534,324 km2, an increase of 18,749 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).
Prediction, mid-October - 2019 will drop behind 2012 to become consistently lowest extent for date, and will continue to be there through most of the freezing season.  I'm expecting a warm winter in the high arctic.
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #172 on: October 05, 2019, 09:12:26 AM »
September 26 - October 4.

2018.

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #173 on: October 05, 2019, 09:12:50 AM »
Since i am a member of this forum it is suggested that people who have comments on the data would take the discussion about the data to this (i.e. melting) thread.

I think you are the first one i see actually doing so, JDallen. So big-time kudos to you! :D

El Cid

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #174 on: October 05, 2019, 09:17:01 AM »
To support jdallen's post here is the SST anomaly for 2019/10/02 vs the average of the same date for 2007-2012-2016. The Laptev,ESS, Beaufort and Chukchi are much warmer than during those years. Atlantic side is similar on average with some very cold spots but those cold spots do not freeze anyway. So it would really be a surprise if the rate of freezing would not be very slow...No ice in the Bering this year????

grixm

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #175 on: October 05, 2019, 09:58:56 AM »
Right about now the extent in 2012 started accelerating upward, so in two weeks or so we might be back to No.1 lowest extent for the date, if this continues.

oren

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #176 on: October 05, 2019, 12:17:39 PM »
September 26 - October 4.

2018.
Thank you as always Aluminium.
I notice that the regions with the fastest growth, the sectors facing the Beaufort and the Laptev, are the same regions that had received consistent export in the second half of the summer. I am quite certain this made them more susceptible to refreezing, by decreasing the salinity of the surface water.
The big difference with 2012 is that the GAC stirred the water column so hard that it brought more saline water from below, and this caused melt to be aggravated and refreeze to be delayed by about a month, until the surface stratification was rebuilt.

sailor

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #177 on: October 05, 2019, 12:39:37 PM »
Seems to me that Pacific inflow keeps temperatures up at Chukchi and even Beaufort, but the drop at ESS coasts seems ominous. A lot of snow has fallen over East Siberia already. Ice may form near the coast soon.

You're not suggesting that ice forming in the ESS soon is ominous are you? It became ice free very early and now shows that it will be freezing very late.

I suspect I have misunderstood you. What is ominous is how long the ESS is ice free,

Yes, my poor use of the English language.
Seeing how quickly the ESS coasts seem to cool down, I meant "something (refreeze) is about to happen there quite suddenly" without the negative connotation of the word "ominous".
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Aleph_Null

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #178 on: October 06, 2019, 02:29:26 PM »
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg232108.html#msg232108

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/1 to 10/6, Forecast: 10/6 to 10/9.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]

gandul

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #179 on: October 06, 2019, 08:42:12 PM »
Still trying to understand how the *warmest* August on record, according to awesome +70N 925hPa temps chart produced by Zack Labe, led to such a poor loss of ice extent. No convincing explanation so far. We don’t know an iota of what’s going on apart from the inexorable warming.

Alexander555

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #180 on: October 06, 2019, 09:00:54 PM »
What we do see is that in the years 2010, 2011 and 2012 there are no cold records. Like you see in the summers after it.

Paul

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #181 on: October 07, 2019, 04:17:08 AM »
Still trying to understand how the *warmest* August on record, according to awesome +70N 925hPa temps chart produced by Zack Labe, led to such a poor loss of ice extent. No convincing explanation so far. We don’t know an iota of what’s going on apart from the inexorable warming.

Especially when you consider the broad area of low pressure that dominated the 2nd part of August  was positioned in such a way that it did not bring any warm air with it and the upper air at least was fairly chilly within the low. That coupled with wind direction saved the ice from going any lower so I can only assume high SSTS played a part?

mabarnes

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #182 on: October 07, 2019, 05:32:45 AM »
Still trying to understand how the *warmest* August on record, according to awesome +70N 925hPa temps chart produced by Zack Labe, led to such a poor loss of ice extent. No convincing explanation so far. We don’t know an iota of what’s going on apart from the inexorable warming.

Have you compared it to the satellite data?  UAH shows August with positive anomaly at the pole but not the highest anomaly for August.  I only took a quick glance but it would be interesting to compare the satellite anomalies with melt rates ... in one's spare time ... if one had any lol ....

UAH lower troposphere here - https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0.txt
« Last Edit: October 07, 2019, 07:13:41 AM by mabarnes »

etienne

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #183 on: October 07, 2019, 06:50:40 AM »
Still trying to understand how the *warmest* August on record, according to awesome +70N 925hPa temps chart produced by Zack Labe, led to such a poor loss of ice extent. No convincing explanation so far. We don’t know an iota of what’s going on apart from the inexorable warming.
I am convinced that we had normal melting conditions in 2019. That we only reached the second position because we started very low and because there was a lot of compaction at the end. The Greenland today page of nsidc https://nsidc.org/greenland-today/ also shows an average year. That's something I worry about. What would happen if 2012 conditions would happen again?

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #184 on: October 07, 2019, 07:15:13 AM »
Still trying to understand how the *warmest* August on record, according to awesome +70N 925hPa temps chart produced by Zack Labe, led to such a poor loss of ice extent. No convincing explanation so far. We don’t know an iota of what’s going on apart from the inexorable warming.
I am convinced that we had normal melting conditions in 2019. That we only reached the second position because we started very low and because there was a lot of compaction at the end. The Greenland today page of nsidc https://nsidc.org/greenland-today/ also shows an average year. That's something I worry about. What would happen if 2012 conditions would happen again?
2019 was much warmer than 2012

Juan C. García

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #185 on: October 07, 2019, 07:21:26 AM »
Still trying to understand how the *warmest* August on record, according to awesome +70N 925hPa temps chart produced by Zack Labe, led to such a poor loss of ice extent. No convincing explanation so far. We don’t know an iota of what’s going on apart from the inexorable warming.

I am not sure that 2019 had the second warmest August on record. But trying to explain the low melt/compaction on August 2019, what I notice was that there was not strong wind. Some low pressures, but not enough to mix the ice with warmer waters and generate a melt.

What does anybody think about the low melt and compaction on August 2019?

(Sorry for the off topic, but the 2019 melting season topic is closed  ;) ).
« Last Edit: October 07, 2019, 04:09:17 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #186 on: October 07, 2019, 07:37:53 AM »
October 2-6.

2018

El Cid

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #187 on: October 07, 2019, 07:59:52 AM »
Still trying to understand how the *warmest* August on record, according to awesome +70N 925hPa temps chart produced by Zack Labe, led to such a poor loss of ice extent. No convincing explanation so far....
I am convinced that we had normal melting conditions in 2019.

WTF? Normal melting conditions? With warmest August, 2nd warmes June and 3rd warmest July (and it was quite sunny for a good part of the summer as well)? How can you call that normal? Based on temps, ice should have crashed to nil, but it held up very well, so I have the same question as the original poster: i wonder why we did not lose more ice?

My answers are:
- the GAC of 2012 was truly a powerful and rare phenomenon and simple warm weather is not enough to repeat it
- the Central Pack is really hard to crack
- the Arctic is a mystery :)

sark

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #188 on: October 07, 2019, 08:19:51 AM »

Boundary layer protection over the ice perhaps.  can there be an inversion over the ice?

this sure is the most barotropic and anticyclonic I've ever seen the Arctic atmosphere in summer, at least going back to 1948.  solar minimum, thin sea ice, hot oceans, weak vortex, low atmospheric momentum.  disrupted vortex at both poles.  at the very least, the earth is spinning faster right now because of a global atmospheric line up of influences, a cosmic line up.  nobody has ever seen this. 

We all can see that it rains harder now.  When did this begin?  Because when that time came, it became Abrupt, and unless we intervene, it will Moist Greenhouse Runaway hell why not Venus

I'm not surprised the ice hasn't melted, I don't think it matters at this point.  between Spring extremes and Autumn extremes, there wasn't enough time to grow a crop on millions of US acres.

August was rather tranquil if I remember, and while the high pressure ridges blown out of the Tropics kept reaching the North Pole directly in huge cut off parcels of anticyclonic warm air throughout the atmosphere, there were still major differences in ground conditions (sea ice surface) at least whenever I checked

2 meters up is not high when you're on top of 1.4 meters thick sea ice even in full sunlight that is going to be cold.  at 925 millibars it could be different because it's still a cold desert down below.  waves won't propagate through the pause in layers.  wild guess.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #189 on: October 07, 2019, 08:44:40 AM »
Still trying to understand how the *warmest* August on record, according to awesome +70N 925hPa temps chart produced by Zack Labe, led to such a poor loss of ice extent. No convincing explanation so far....
I am convinced that we had normal melting conditions in 2019.

WTF? Normal melting conditions? With warmest August, 2nd warmes June and 3rd warmest July (and it was quite sunny for a good part of the summer as well)? How can you call that normal? Based on temps, ice should have crashed to nil, but it held up very well, so I have the same question as the original poster: i wonder why we did not lose more ice?

My answers are:
- the GAC of 2012 was truly a powerful and rare phenomenon and simple warm weather is not enough to repeat it
- the Central Pack is really hard to crack
- the Arctic is a mystery :)
Your answers are good, especially the third.

When the melting momentum hit a wall in early August I commented then that we were missing something key in our understanding of what drives the melt.  They key things that stand out in my mind now are:

  • Lack of comprehensive understanding of salinity, heat and movement of water under the ice
  • Underestimating the effect of high latitude and other conditions affecting refraction that reduce heat uptake.
  • Strong support for ice retention around the emerging "cold poles" - though that pretty much failed completely by July on the Siberian side.
There's far more, no doubt, but that's what jumps out at me now.

I will be watching a number of things now on the refreeze.  As others noticed, we are seeing regular cyclical massive intrusions of heat and moisture all the way into the central basin, which themselves show no sign of diminishing.

I think the refreeze of the peripheral central seas (ESS, Chukchi and Laptev in particular) will be strongly retarded.  I think the Beaufort and CAA will actually refreeze fairly fast, in keeping with the development of the "cold pole" over northern Canada and Greenland.  I think they will catch up rapidly once we reach mid to late November, and I think continued intrusions of heat will offset what would normally be heat lost from those seas.  That heat retention will play a key role in how much thickening we see late in the refreeze season.

I will be watching the CAB with considerable interest and am overjoyed by the over-winter expedition being carried out.  My prediction of what's ahead is that we will see much higher than typical snowfall, which we know is a very two edged sword.  Next spring it will protect the ice.  However, if it stacks up too high and too fast, it will seriously impede the very necessary lost of heat out of the arctic basin we need to preserve the ice.

I'm tentatively thinking were going to see conditions much like 2016-2017, with serious drops in FDD's and anemic volume growth, much of which won't happen until after northern hemisphere snowfall locks in colder temperature over the continents.

It will be an interesting season.

(Post script - various models have the remnants of typhoon HAGABIS blowing back up into a *very* powerful storm in the Bering in a few days.  That could seriously disturb weather on the Pacific side of the basin.  Worth keeping track of, I think.)
« Last Edit: October 07, 2019, 09:06:22 AM by jdallen »
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #190 on: October 07, 2019, 05:12:35 PM »
Ominous signal from the Arctic; it has never been warmer

Quote
~Complex system by its vastness,  the Arctic atmosphere warmed to #1 despite any clear year to year trend.
~600 mb temperature analysis reveals September 2019 surpassing 2012, despite 2012 having less sea ice at minima.   
~Shouldn't  2012 atmosphere have been the warmest one?

Link >> https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/10/ominous-signal-from-arctic-it-has-never.html

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #191 on: October 07, 2019, 06:46:05 PM »
 Does the "peak" of the freezing season have any impact on the "peak" of the subsequent melting season? If the ice expands record small this season, is it more likely to contract to record small next season?
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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #192 on: October 07, 2019, 07:57:55 PM »
Even though 2016 had a similar minimum... it seemed like for a large part of the year we were way ahead of it...  Even the 2016 area minimum was only really for a three week period well below this year.  It seems we can't judge a year by a minimum... 2007 seemed like a very bad year and 2011 is often in the upper five?  Global ice missed 2016 numbers in area but seam to be keeping pace or besting the last two years which were also bad.  Global extent is another story... we are definitely looking at records below 2016 at this point. 
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #193 on: October 07, 2019, 07:59:49 PM »
There are a lot of positive and negative feedbacks interacting. When weather happens, this will screw your math. So i guess the answer is: No one knows, Tom.

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #194 on: October 07, 2019, 08:10:16 PM »
if we are going to be braking the global ice record every two or three years as each year is always now in the top three most of the time, isn't this the global equivalent of a blue ocean... I mean we are talking a difference of 2 million square kilometers right?  Guess we learned a few important things this year... a GAC not critical, some [rare?] inverse dipole can stop ice lost any time of year, and sunny weather not always the best conditioner??  I've not heard any talk of methane during the melt season... we keeping track on this thread?
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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #195 on: October 07, 2019, 08:12:47 PM »
Tom, I've been noticing that the minimum and peaks tend to be close together and its been the middle of the melt seasons that have been more record low... The time to panic for me is when Chukchi starts acting like the Bering in the Heart of winter 1/3rd as much while fluxuating drastically in size every other week.
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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #196 on: October 07, 2019, 08:54:07 PM »
Even though 2016 had a similar minimum... it seemed like for a large part of the year we were way ahead of it...  Even the 2016 area minimum was only really for a three week period well below this year.  It seems we can't judge a year by a minimum... 2007 seemed like a very bad year and 2011 is often in the upper five?  Global ice missed 2016 numbers in area but seam to be keeping pace or besting the last two years which were also bad.  Global extent is another story... we are definitely looking at records below 2016 at this point.
The Global Extent in 2016 fell like a stone from now due to an unprecedented event in the Antarctic which very probably had nothing to do with the Arctic Freezing season. Probably an outlier rather like 2012 in the Arctic. Something extraordinary would have to happen for 2019 to get below 2016 by maximum in early November.

My last post about it is here....
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2136.msg232105.html#msg232105 ,
and is about JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent, which was 3.8 million km2 below the 1980's average on October 5th.
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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #197 on: October 07, 2019, 09:22:07 PM »
Regardless of the minimum, CAB extent is edging towards the slow refreeze of 2018 (brown), 2012 is orange.
Wipneus amsr2 regional extent, oct6

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #198 on: October 07, 2019, 09:50:52 PM »
Full-size version available, with September 2018, in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg232295.html#msg232295

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
September 2019 review.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #199 on: October 07, 2019, 11:49:40 PM »
Regardless of the minimum, CAB extent is edging towards the slow refreeze of 2018 (brown), 2012 is orange.
Wipneus amsr2 regional extent, oct6
Freezing is gonna speed up, people in tweeter talking about alignment and strengthening of tropospheric and stratospheric polar vortices,  “cooling the arctic and bringing mild temps to mid latitudes”.
ESS coast in particular should get to the point of freezing.

thanks to all who reflected on August slowdown of melting season after my post. I have very bad memory.
lack of wind pattern that could have hurt the otherwise well-protected CAB culprit #1.