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charles_oil

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #350 on: October 31, 2019, 11:38:30 AM »
Maybe something like this ….

HapHazard

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #351 on: October 31, 2019, 07:49:46 PM »
You'll have to explain that technical term, please...."squirting whipped cream"
 :o :o :o :o :o

Google "Reddi-Wip".


...But TBH when I googled "squirting whipped cream"... well let's just say you should turn Safe Search ON if you're at work. Just sayin'.  :o :-[

Aluminium

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #352 on: November 01, 2019, 07:05:23 AM »
October 27-31.

2018.

SimonF92

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #353 on: November 01, 2019, 01:12:54 PM »
October 27-31.

2018.

Damn, thats fast. I wonder if thats a new single-day gain record
Im working on a satellite-miner to detect changes in small ice-caps/ snow-fields. Send me recommendations to optimise the program with.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #354 on: November 01, 2019, 02:35:54 PM »
The Chukchi Sea still does not want to freeze.



Has anyone figured out where we are now walking on the average annual area in the Arctic?


GoodeWeather

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #355 on: November 01, 2019, 03:04:33 PM »
The Chukchi Sea still does not want to freeze.



Has anyone figured out where we are now walking on the average annual area in the Arctic?



Chukchi took in a massive amount of heat this summer.  Heat in deeper waters will take more time to freeze.   I am amazed at how long it has lasted so far.  Could go another week before the real freeze takes over.

Archimid

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #356 on: November 01, 2019, 03:10:18 PM »
The extent growth in the Kara and the Laptev is impressive, even if expected. In Aluminium's animations the role of bathymetry, shoals and the geometry of the sea ice is evident. Volume figures should be spectacular, given how fast thin ice grows.

 Warm sst's seem to be overpowered by ice growth when temperatures are low enough.  That extra energy will go somewhere, but it now has to pass through ice if it wants to go up. I expect air temperature anomalies to remain above average until at least February, depending on WAA.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Darvince

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #357 on: November 01, 2019, 06:31:54 PM »
Based on the present SSTs in Chukchi, and the ESS, Laptev, and Kara having run out of water below -1C, I expect the extent growth to stall out again in 2 or 3 days time and not pick up again until the middle of November, perhaps as late as November 20th. Cold air masses removing heat from Hudson and Baffin Bays could negate this, however. There is quite a bit of water below -1C in Baffin right now.

The Beaufort has a significant amount of water nearing -1C, but that seems like it's been around -1C for a weirdly long time, so who knows what'll happen there. My guess is that we finally get significant Beaufort expansion around November 10th, weather patterns permitting.

El Cid

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #358 on: November 01, 2019, 09:27:35 PM »
look at how warm the pacific side is even relative to 2016. it will take weeks to freeze!

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #359 on: November 01, 2019, 09:38:50 PM »
look at how warm the pacific side is even relative to 2016. it will take weeks to freeze!

It's about 5 degrees warmer than normal.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/temperature/tn70026_1yr.gif

See the map in the lower left corner (pink area):

http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/RecentT.pdf

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #360 on: November 01, 2019, 10:18:40 PM »
Ascat A,B,C A,C,B day233-303. Some weather interference ;)
« Last Edit: November 02, 2019, 04:23:56 PM by uniquorn »

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #361 on: November 02, 2019, 12:32:35 AM »
look at how warm the pacific side is even relative to 2016. it will take weeks to freeze!

This GIF compares SSTs from Bering, Chukchi and southern Beaufort between end October 2018 and 2019.

Southern Beaufort is a lot warmer this year. Warm currents have spread right across the northern coast of Alaska around Point Barrow.

Most of the Chukchi was warmer this time last year.

Western Bering was also warmer in 2018 and Eastern Bering is about the same.

Unless there is a sudden increase in the Beaufort, progress into the Chukchi and Bering could be even slower than last year. 

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #362 on: November 02, 2019, 06:49:23 AM »
Has anyone figured out where we are now walking on the average annual area in the Arctic?

The chances of a new annual record are growing. 3 monthly records have already been set (2016 - 4, 2018 - 2, 2012 - 2, 2017 - 2).

https://twitter.com/zlabe
Quote
Updated record low #Arctic sea ice extent months - @NSIDC data (satellite-era from 1978/1979)
--------------
2018 : January
2018 : February
2017 : March
2019 : April
2016 : May
2016 : June
2019 : July
2012 : August
2012 : September
2019 : October
2016 : November
2016 : December

Aleph_Null

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #363 on: November 02, 2019, 11:41:04 AM »
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg235170.html#msg235170

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/28 to 11/2, Forecast: 11/2 to 11/5.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]

morganism

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #364 on: November 02, 2019, 10:10:27 PM »
Alaska is having a hell of a time growing sea ice

https://mashable.com/article/arctic-sea-ice-alaska-will-not-grow/

""It has been a remarkable freeze-season (or lack of) so far," noted Zack Labe, a climate scientist and PhD candidate at the University of California, Irvine. "Overall, the last month has featured large areas of open water north of Alaska and Siberia."

Aluminium

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #365 on: November 03, 2019, 07:07:42 AM »
October 29 - November 2.

2018.

NotaDenier

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #366 on: November 03, 2019, 12:34:12 PM »
I’m wondering if the very quick refreeze is actually a bad thing? I remember several people here stating there was a lot of snow on the ice pack in May. Which delayed melting (melt ponds didn’t form). I know the snow can come from other areas but the quicker the refreeze of the Arctic Ocean the less moisture would be available for snow to fall in the arctic.

Does this make sense?

colchonero

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #367 on: November 03, 2019, 03:25:27 PM »
Well if there is a slow refreeze and no ice, where would that snow fall on? And what thickness would that "protected" ice have?

SimonF92

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #368 on: November 03, 2019, 06:47:35 PM »
I’m wondering if the very quick refreeze is actually a bad thing? I remember several people here stating there was a lot of snow on the ice pack in May. Which delayed melting (melt ponds didn’t form). I know the snow can come from other areas but the quicker the refreeze of the Arctic Ocean the less moisture would be available for snow to fall in the arctic.

Does this make sense?

It makes sense, a few points though;

The argument is normally that a delayed refreeze allows more heat to vent into space, not that it creates more snow. Snow protects sea ice during spring/summer but is bad for sea ice in the autumn as it insulates against the polar night.
Im working on a satellite-miner to detect changes in small ice-caps/ snow-fields. Send me recommendations to optimise the program with.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #369 on: November 03, 2019, 07:31:11 PM »
I’m wondering if the very quick refreeze is actually a bad thing? I remember several people here stating there was a lot of snow on the ice pack in May. Which delayed melting (melt ponds didn’t form). I know the snow can come from other areas but the quicker the refreeze of the Arctic Ocean the less moisture would be available for snow to fall in the arctic.

Does this make sense?

It makes sense, a few points though;

The argument is normally that a delayed refreeze allows more heat to vent into space, not that it creates more snow. Snow protects sea ice during spring/summer but is bad for sea ice in the autumn as it insulates against the polar night.
But that venting into space may be reduced to some extent in an open water sea - warmer air, increased low cloud and fog.

And the worst of both worlds might be happening now. Amazingly fast freeze-up in the ESS, Laptev, and Kara (A-Team even used the term "flash-freeze"), before all the below surface ocean heat had vented out - insulating that ocean warmth from further quick cooling down.
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Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #370 on: November 04, 2019, 01:21:16 AM »
AMSR2 ice concentration on 25 Oct with ice since added in the 9 days to 3rd November (in white).

SimonF92

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #371 on: November 04, 2019, 12:03:40 PM »
The speed of the Russian side refreeze depends on which  timepoint you define as your starting one.

If it was 2 weeks ago it has been incredibly fast.

If it was 1 month ago it has been pretty slow.

So in terms of surface radiation its either been a good OR a bad year?
Im working on a satellite-miner to detect changes in small ice-caps/ snow-fields. Send me recommendations to optimise the program with.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #372 on: November 04, 2019, 06:46:53 PM »
Wow  :P


GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #373 on: November 05, 2019, 06:32:21 AM »
How much Bering ice will form?

How weak and thin will the Chukchi ice be?

How much will this lack of buffer effect early melt?


I think this next year may see severe anomalies and its effects may penetrate into the central arctic.
big time oops

dnem

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #374 on: November 05, 2019, 01:11:18 PM »
I’m wondering if the very quick refreeze is actually a bad thing? I remember several people here stating there was a lot of snow on the ice pack in May. Which delayed melting (melt ponds didn’t form). I know the snow can come from other areas but the quicker the refreeze of the Arctic Ocean the less moisture would be available for snow to fall in the arctic.

Does this make sense?

While there are arguments pro and con - "sealing in heat", less venting to space, less snow vs more humidity and warmth in the lower atmosphere, more insulating snow, etc. etc. I have to defer to Occam's Razor: more and earlier freezing is good for the ice; less and later freezing is bad. This is probably overly simplistic and there are likely countervailing samples here and there across the arctic, but overall, that's my guess.

Aleph_Null

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #375 on: November 05, 2019, 01:27:14 PM »
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg235509.html#msg235509

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/31 to 11/5, Forecast: 11/5 to 11/8.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #376 on: November 05, 2019, 03:17:56 PM »
How much Bering ice will form?

How weak and thin will the Chukchi ice be?

How much will this lack of buffer effect early melt?


I think this next year may see severe anomalies and its effects may penetrate into the central arctic.

Everything is very bad. The Pacific side continues to overheat, the Beaufort circle is pumped with heat.

Even with a neutral ENSO index, we have almost a record for ocean temperature:


Aluminium

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #377 on: November 05, 2019, 05:38:09 PM »
October 15 - November 4 (fast).

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #378 on: November 05, 2019, 06:13:00 PM »
I’m wondering if the very quick refreeze is actually a bad thing? I remember several people here stating there was a lot of snow on the ice pack in May. Which delayed melting (melt ponds didn’t form). I know the snow can come from other areas but the quicker the refreeze of the Arctic Ocean the less moisture would be available for snow to fall in the arctic.

Does this make sense?

While there are arguments pro and con - "sealing in heat", less venting to space, less snow vs more humidity and warmth in the lower atmosphere, more insulating snow, etc. etc. I have to defer to Occam's Razor: more and earlier freezing is good for the ice; less and later freezing is bad. This is probably overly simplistic and there are likely countervailing samples here and there across the arctic, but overall, that's my guess.

I agree. Also more and earlier melting is bad for the ice; less and later melting is good. This is why ice free days for individual seas is such a good metric to track.

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #379 on: November 05, 2019, 07:40:46 PM »
Fram export via Sentinel SAR

Click to play

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #380 on: November 05, 2019, 08:23:02 PM »
Love the fast ones, Aluminium.

Here is one month of sea ice drift in slow though. One needs to see the arrows.

Pavel

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #381 on: November 05, 2019, 10:28:19 PM »
Fram export via Sentinel SAR

Click to play

Thanks for this. Some of those big floes could be very thick MYI according to Cryosat-2 data

grixm

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #382 on: November 06, 2019, 08:52:28 AM »
NSIDC posted their summary for last month titled "Wild ride in October": https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2019/11/wild-ride-in-october/

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #383 on: November 06, 2019, 06:58:39 PM »
Thanks for this. Some of those big floes could be very thick MYI according to Cryosat-2 data

You are most welcome, Pavel.

And i had the exact same thought.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #384 on: November 07, 2019, 04:23:43 AM »
This is where "the action" will be this freezing season...


There isn't really much thick ice to export. So it is all about pacific intrusion.
big time oops

be cause

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #385 on: November 07, 2019, 09:10:46 AM »
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2019.png

it looks like we shall see the first autumnal fall below mean on the dmi80 chart since 2015 . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

binntho

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #386 on: November 07, 2019, 09:23:24 AM »
There certainly does seem to be a very cold corridor stretching from Svalbard and Franz Josef Land, and polewards. The rest of the Arctic seems to be having significantly above average temperatures.



As usual, the DMI graph only tells a small part of the story.

« Last Edit: November 07, 2019, 09:31:49 AM by binntho »
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #387 on: November 07, 2019, 09:56:26 AM »
October 31 - November 6.

2018.

colchonero

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #388 on: November 07, 2019, 11:14:00 AM »
I kbow DMI has pole "bias" but I wouldn't disagree a lot with them this time. As we know the pole is centered more towards Atlantic side, so 80N seems to be average. The rest of the Arcric is also fairly average (or even colder where there is ice, hot zones in Chuckchi and Baffin are there because there is no ice yet. We can clearly "see" that ice border on this photo (Nares and eastern CAA in blue Baffin Bay in red). Real " hot zone" is the Russian side. Very much above average there, despite of ice, and btw also over Siberian land.   Very cold CAA. Cold center of the CAB,  aroubd the pole and Svalbard, cold Greenland sea and Atlantic side as a whole (Kara, Barents) except that usual hotspot near Svalbard

binntho

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #389 on: November 07, 2019, 11:34:39 AM »
I kbow DMI has pole "bias" but I wouldn't disagree a lot with them this time. As we know the pole is centered more towards Atlantic side, so 80N seems to be average. The rest of the Arcric is also fairly average (or even colder where there is ice, hot zones in Chuckchi and Baffin are there because there is no ice yet. We can clearly "see" that ice border on this photo (Nares and eastern CAA in blue Baffin Bay in red).

This does not quite match what the image shows. The entirety of ESS is covered in ice, and is still deeply red on the 2m Temporature Anomaly. Laptev and Beaufort ice is only covered in red. In fact, most of the sea ice at the moment has positive temp anomalies.

And the anomalies over Greenland are also significant.

I've drawn a very rough estimate of 80N and the ice edge (green line) on the image below, as you can see the area north of 80 is indeed very cold, all the rest of the Arctic is unusally warm, and this include most of the ice covered part of the Arctic.

because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

echoughton

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #390 on: November 07, 2019, 12:19:46 PM »
I kbow DMI has pole "bias" but I wouldn't disagree a lot with them this time. As we know the pole is centered more towards Atlantic side, so 80N seems to be average. The rest of the Arcric is also fairly average (or even colder where there is ice, hot zones in Chuckchi and Baffin are there because there is no ice yet. We can clearly "see" that ice border on this photo (Nares and eastern CAA in blue Baffin Bay in red).

This does not quite match what the image shows. The entirety of ESS is covered in ice, and is still deeply red on the 2m Temporature Anomaly. Laptev and Beaufort ice is only covered in red. In fact, most of the sea ice at the moment has positive temp anomalies.


That's not what my eyes see. Certainly on the forward side there is much red, but on the other...and still in the Arctic, vast areas of blue. Like most up here, you seem to be red biased....as I am blue...lol

And the anomalies over Greenland are also significant.

I've drawn a very rough estimate of 80N and the ice edge (green line) on the image below, as you can see the area north of 80 is indeed very cold, all the rest of the Arctic is unusally warm, and this include most of the ice covered part of the Arctic.

binntho

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #391 on: November 07, 2019, 12:52:10 PM »
echoughton, you need to attend to your quote markings!

Code: [Select]
[quote]this is a quote[/quote]
Besides, which side is the forward side? Perhaps we are biased, if not directly color-blind, but your original point about one being able to see the ice edge from the color markings doesn't hold up.

And the logic behind claiming that 2m temperatures are showing anomalies because of lack of ice is not very strong, as opposed to if we were discussing SST anomalies. Just look at how the ice-covered areas of Beafort and EES are showing higher anomalies than the non-icecovered Chukchi.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

colchonero

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #392 on: November 07, 2019, 01:14:22 PM »
First of all, I said the real  hot zone is the Russian side (which includes ESS and Laptev obviously) because there IS sea ice and snow cover in Siberia, anomaly there is not due the lack of those. The no ice argument was meant mainly for Baffin and Chukchi (I'm not speaking  just of today). There is real warm air advection from the Pacific going on right now. And when I said Arctic as a whole looks faitly average, I didn't mean just CAB but also CAA and Atlantic (Kara, Greenland and Barents seas) That whole side is below average.

P. S. 2m anomalies can't go down THAT much, if there is no ice, it's the opposite to summer months, when DMI shows always 0-1C even if we have 5C temp 850hPa which on the land with that much insolation would result in 20C on a sunny day. Real warm air advections can be followed on a temp850hPa map, but that  also can be tricky due to inversions in winter. It depends how and where the high pressure system is located.
« Last Edit: November 07, 2019, 01:21:38 PM by colchonero »

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #393 on: November 07, 2019, 03:43:22 PM »
Think the end of the century rises is close. Maybe 50k climbs now. The whipped cream has all been stirred up now and will just slowly spread out in the coffee cup
That's awfully cold coffee!
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Eco-Author

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #394 on: November 07, 2019, 08:31:42 PM »
who do we complain to about DMI... Better at least make obvious suggestions to their format.  Isn't there something we can do about including the extreme heat anomalies just outside this zone, say like including down to 70-deg.?  what about what is common on all our other charts such as comparison amoung years overlaying each other??? Ugh!  Greenland melt needs that too.  Sorry for not keeping up of late...  I have been watching daily gains and think they are nothing unexpected... I mean, freeze season WILL happen no matter what the +anomalies.  its the far more worrying rapid falls just after near equal peaks that we saw earlier this year to start off that worry me... To me, it'll be many decades 40-70 years before we are basically ice free year long.?~  We won't survive things as is.  Hope its not off topic, but as usual think we need to see the worrysome gobal picture...  We are seeing similar maximums but sharp decreases Mid-season so Yes... its now Antarctica's turn.  global ice extent is a very strong second after what... 9-months in the lead/tied with first?  Not good... Chukchi is now showing signs of Berring like collapse???

{edit} I mean I had to guess... what will global ice curve look like in 10-15 years??
« Last Edit: November 07, 2019, 08:37:23 PM by Eco-Author »
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #395 on: November 07, 2019, 08:41:16 PM »
Think the end of the century rises is close. Maybe 50k climbs now. The whipped cream has all been stirred up now and will just slowly spread out in the coffee cup
That's awfully cold coffee!
They charge more for iced  coffee. It takes a lot of energy to make the cold to freeze the hot stuff. Homo Sapiens rules, OK?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #396 on: November 07, 2019, 09:21:11 PM »
      This might belong in the Stupid Questions thread, but can somebody explain how/why Laptev and ESS had such above average Extent and Area refreeze gains when the GFS temperature forecasts over the past two weeks have shown substantial above average temperature anomalies?

     In addition to the anomalies, some of the absolute temperature values were at or just below 0 C.  And if I remember correctly, not just 2m air temps., but also SST temps. were above normal.  So how does that turn into above average refreezing?

     I realize that those seas were starting from below average ice amount, were bound to catch up and by starting late, caught up faster than normal, and that the lack of ice cover may have allowed greater export of ocean water heat into the atmosphere.  But all of that doesn't seem to be enough to explain how such a burst of new freezing happened. 

     My guess is that the GFS air temperatures at 2 meters above the surface were reading high because of ice formation.  Thus in opposition to my assumption that elevated surface air temperatures would retard ice formation, it was the exact opposite, energy released by ice formation was warming the air.

    Regardless of my confusion based on expecting the opposite to have occurred, what explanation is there for the recent rapid ice accumulation at far above the normal rate?
« Last Edit: November 07, 2019, 10:04:29 PM by Glen Koehler »

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #397 on: November 08, 2019, 12:33:07 AM »
Here are the temperatures on Kotelny Island for the past 30 days, Glen.

Kotelny is located between the ESS and Laptev.

The temperatures show a considerable drop after the 28th. But that was after the ice growth had shut off the open water influence. Prior to that date, the temperatures were below zero but rarely below -8 C. Not enough you would think to start a big freeze.

Aleph_Null

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #398 on: November 08, 2019, 12:40:21 AM »
Full-size version available, with synchronized comparison {2019, 2018, 2017, 2016}, in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg235916.html#msg235916

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
October 2019 review.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]

Aleph_Null

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #399 on: November 08, 2019, 01:10:58 PM »
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg235969.html#msg235969

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 11/3 to 11/8, Forecast: 11/8 to 11/11.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]