This might belong in the Stupid Questions thread, but can somebody explain how/why Laptev and ESS had such above average Extent and Area refreeze gains when the GFS temperature forecasts over the past two weeks have shown substantial above average temperature anomalies?
In addition to the anomalies, some of the absolute temperature values were at or just below 0 C. And if I remember correctly, not just 2m air temps., but also SST temps. were above normal. So how does that turn into above average refreezing?
I realize that those seas were starting from below average ice amount, were bound to catch up and by starting late, caught up faster than normal, and that the lack of ice cover may have allowed greater export of ocean water heat into the atmosphere. But all of that doesn't seem to be enough to explain how such a burst of new freezing happened.
My guess is that the GFS air temperatures at 2 meters above the surface were reading high because of ice formation. Thus in opposition to my assumption that elevated surface air temperatures would retard ice formation, it was the exact opposite, energy released by ice formation was warming the air.
Regardless of my confusion based on expecting the opposite to have occurred, what explanation is there for the recent rapid ice accumulation at far above the normal rate?
