Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The 2019/2020 freezing season  (Read 74439 times)

Freegrass

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 289
  • Worried Warrior
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 160
  • Likes Given: 165
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #50 on: September 26, 2019, 01:35:27 PM »
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
September 25 - 1

Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water

Use pause function and slider to go frame by frame, or put it on a loop.
The Existential Climate Crisis Is Upon Us!

oren

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4534
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 912
  • Likes Given: 1305
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #51 on: September 26, 2019, 01:36:33 PM »
The "slush floes" that dominated large parts of the CAB (facing the Laptev and the Beaufort) managed to survive thanks to the poor melting weather in August. This saved the melting season, but also gave a jumpstart to the freezing season, as cold fresh water intermixed with spread floes can freeze very quickly. Thus the very quick rise in area in the CAB. The CAA has seen a similarly quick refreeze around the surviving ice. Now that this process is (probably) over, it's gonna be mighty interesting. I expect a relatively slow refreeze especially in the ESS and Chukchi, as this summer they have been ice free longer than usual, giving the surface water time to heat and especially to mix.

gandul

  • New ice
  • Posts: 86
  • de verdad
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 19
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #52 on: September 26, 2019, 08:34:43 PM »
The "slush floes" that dominated large parts of the CAB (facing the Laptev and the Beaufort) managed to survive thanks to the poor melting weather in August. This saved the melting season, but also gave a jumpstart to the freezing season, as cold fresh water intermixed with spread floes can freeze very quickly. Thus the very quick rise in area in the CAB. The CAA has seen a similarly quick refreeze around the surviving ice. Now that this process is (probably) over, it's gonna be mighty interesting. I expect a relatively slow refreeze especially in the ESS and Chukchi, as this summer they have been ice free longer than usual, giving the surface water time to heat and especially to mix.

Jumpstart, I like that word to describe it.
Reminds to 2016 now, the fast inner refreeze, at least in what respects to area no?
Now the wall of SSTs...slow October.
Then who knows If atmospheric disruptions will keep on denormalizing the Arctic into the winter.
No me lo trago

VeganPeaceForAll

  • New ice
  • Posts: 15
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 170
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #53 on: September 26, 2019, 11:12:56 PM »
Area increases, thickness still very thin


Michael Hauber

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 841
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 46
  • Likes Given: 12
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #54 on: September 27, 2019, 03:27:04 AM »

I've seen a lot of debate about this, the consensus here is that continental snow doesn't really have much bearing on Arctic sea-ice. Recently (2017, 2018) the snow mass charts have gone off the scale in winter (ECCC had to make a new y-axis) and it really hasn't correlated with a change in Arctic sea ice melt.


More snow = more sunlight reflected = cooling.  But the best way to get a wider cover of snow on the continents adjacent to the Arctic is to disrupt the polar vortex and allow more cold arctic air to spread further away from the central Arctic, meaning the central Arctic becomes warmer.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

bbr2314

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1817
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 166
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #55 on: September 27, 2019, 04:17:58 AM »

I've seen a lot of debate about this, the consensus here is that continental snow doesn't really have much bearing on Arctic sea-ice. Recently (2017, 2018) the snow mass charts have gone off the scale in winter (ECCC had to make a new y-axis) and it really hasn't correlated with a change in Arctic sea ice melt.


More snow = more sunlight reflected = cooling.  But the best way to get a wider cover of snow on the continents adjacent to the Arctic is to disrupt the polar vortex and allow more cold arctic air to spread further away from the central Arctic, meaning the central Arctic becomes warmer.
Yes! Extra snowcover also has the impact of aiding -500MB anomalies in the continents, with ensuing cold blasts into the mid-latitude oceans a particularly potent method of advecting additional oceanic heat into the Arctic. Continental snowfall is good from the perspective of blunting incoming warmth to the Arctic that would originate from the continents, it is bad from the perspective that -500MB anomalies are effective at evacuating mid-latitude oceanic heat northwards, into the Arctic.

IF the continents are snowcovered AND the Arcic is fully ice-covered, the outcome of snow-covered continents is probably net beneficial to sea ice. However, if the continents are snowcovered and the Arctic pack is entirely surrounded by water -- as is currently the case -- perhaps this is when the oceanic feedbacks derivative of the -500MB anomalies really kick into overdrive. When the sea ice is surrounded by hundreds or thousands of miles of open water, the positive benefits of continental snowcover are lost as that air which would normally advect overtop the sea ice, depleted of heat and moisture, is instead often muddled by cyclonic activity as it meets the open waters of the ESS / Laptev/ whathaveyou.

I had not considered this juxtaposition before, but it would make quite a bit of sense in explaining why atmospheric circulation goes to particular sh*t in the autumnal months as of late.
« Last Edit: September 27, 2019, 04:23:27 AM by bbr2314 »

Aluminium

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 444
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 381
  • Likes Given: 264
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #56 on: September 27, 2019, 06:35:31 AM »
September 22-26.

2018.

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #57 on: September 27, 2019, 09:06:01 AM »
Can anyone verify AAM is dropping
I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #58 on: September 27, 2019, 09:16:02 AM »
Can anyone verify AAM is dropping

Nevermind, I found one.  http://atlas.niu.edu/gwo/

From the looks of things, going to be one hell of a cold dunk into winter for Northern Hemisphere civilization.  All at once.

The Arctic will stay fed by high pressure parcels every 4 days for the first half of October.

Here's a year of AAM
I am not a scientist

blumenkraft

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1570
  • Fans of Hans Club - circa 2018
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 694
  • Likes Given: 961
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #59 on: September 27, 2019, 09:47:41 AM »
What's AAM, Sark? Why is it cooling the NH?

Google wasn't helpful:

Quote
AAM may refer to:
Academy of Ancient Music, a period-instrument orchestra based in Cambridge, England
Accademia di Architettura di Mendrisio
Active appearance model, a method for image detection, using statistical models
Air-to-air missile, a missile fired from an aircraft to attack another aircraft
Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers
American Alliance of Museums, an organization for museums and associated individuals
American Axle & Manufacturing, a supplier of automotive components
Al-Aqsa Mosque
Anti-Apartheid Movement
Aramanik language, an extinct language of Tanzania, ISO 639-3 designation
Association of Assistant Mistresses, a former British trade union
The US Army Achievement Medal, awarded for meritorious service or achievement
ASCII Adjust after Multiplication, computer instruction in Intel BCD opcodes#Multiplication
Automatic acoustic management, a technology to reduce hard drive seek noise
Mala Mala Airport in South Africa (IATA airport code: AAM)
Aam, a hamlet in the Netherlands
Alliance for Audited Media
The Association for Accessible Medicines, formerly known as the Generic Pharmaceutical Association (GPhA)
Refugees welcome

pleun

  • New ice
  • Posts: 34
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 9
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #60 on: September 27, 2019, 10:03:33 AM »
found this :

HEADLINE: Atmospheric Angular Momentum (AAM), a measure of how fast the atmosphere is spinning relative to the Earth's rotation, is a complex variable that can offer insight to particular flow configurations within the atmosphere.

blumenkraft

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1570
  • Fans of Hans Club - circa 2018
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 694
  • Likes Given: 961
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #61 on: September 27, 2019, 10:04:59 AM »
Thanks, Pleun. :)
Refugees welcome

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #62 on: September 27, 2019, 10:14:14 AM »
it's like zonal mass.  sum total of everything torquing the atmosphere
I am not a scientist

blumenkraft

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1570
  • Fans of Hans Club - circa 2018
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 694
  • Likes Given: 961
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #63 on: September 27, 2019, 10:21:36 AM »
Just reading up on it, Sark. Damn, that's interesting. :)
Refugees welcome

SimonF92

  • New ice
  • Posts: 89
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 29
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #64 on: September 27, 2019, 11:17:50 AM »
Sark would you mind explaining why you think its "going to be one hell of a cold dunk into winter for Northern Hemisphere civilization" please?

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #65 on: September 27, 2019, 11:32:47 AM »
Arctic air is being flung out of the Arctic.  High pressure dominates at the North Pole.  What will keep the vorticity together, the Fujiwhara effect?

It's already in the forecast.  Big cut off lows.  Spain saw one already.  Lots of cold fronts and lots and lots of meridional transport between equator & pole.

The polar cell is junk
I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #66 on: September 27, 2019, 11:45:59 AM »
1998 was a similarly broadly blocked year in a solar minimum with a large spread out anomaly like 2019 during the JJA period, and 2014 was the first Pacific Blob.

DJF of 1998+2014 is just one idea.
I am not a scientist

Freegrass

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 289
  • Worried Warrior
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 160
  • Likes Given: 165
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #67 on: September 27, 2019, 01:46:20 PM »
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
September 26 - 2

Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
The Existential Climate Crisis Is Upon Us!

Aleph_Null

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 135
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 48
  • Likes Given: 201
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #68 on: September 27, 2019, 01:48:44 PM »
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg230872.html#msg230872

Hindcast: 9/22 to 9/27, Forecast: 9/27 to 9/30.
AMSR2 + MSLP + IWPD@850hPa (tiny version)

philopek

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 462
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 208
  • Likes Given: 40
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #69 on: September 27, 2019, 06:19:45 PM »

More snow = more sunlight reflected = cooling. 

Not cooling but less or later warming, that's not the same.

Cooling would happen if temps would generally be lower than before but as they are generally higher (AGW!) we have reduced/later/ warming over snow covered area than over not snow covered area.
« Last Edit: September 27, 2019, 06:30:34 PM by philopek »

Freegrass

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 289
  • Worried Warrior
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 160
  • Likes Given: 165
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #70 on: September 27, 2019, 07:16:19 PM »

More snow = more sunlight reflected = cooling. 

Not cooling but less or later warming, that's not the same.

Cooling would happen if temps would generally be lower than before but as they are generally higher (AGW!) we have reduced/later/ warming over snow covered area than over not snow covered area.

The biggest problem with more snow is that it makes it harder for the permafrost to refreeze, and that would lead to warmer landmass during summer, and more methane in the air.
The Existential Climate Crisis Is Upon Us!

RoxTheGeologist

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 471
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 132
  • Likes Given: 100
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #71 on: September 27, 2019, 08:24:44 PM »

More snow = more sunlight reflected = cooling. 

Not cooling but less or later warming, that's not the same.

Cooling would happen if temps would generally be lower than before but as they are generally higher (AGW!) we have reduced/later/ warming over snow covered area than over not snow covered area.

The biggest problem with more snow is that it makes it harder for the permafrost to refreeze, and that would lead to warmer landmass during summer, and more methane in the air.

Early snow traps heat in the ground and in the ice. Instead of the surface being able to radiate heat directly to and through the atmosphere (say - 40°C) it has to conduct the heat through all those nice air pockets in the snow. On sea ice it would effectively lower the number of FDDs

Early snow = slows down heat loss (insulator)
Late snow = slows down heat gain (albedo, specific heat of melt to overcome before ice and ground heat up, insulator)

Of course and model would depend on the latitude and time of year


Freegrass

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 289
  • Worried Warrior
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 160
  • Likes Given: 165
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #72 on: September 27, 2019, 10:12:40 PM »

More snow = more sunlight reflected = cooling. 

Not cooling but less or later warming, that's not the same.

Cooling would happen if temps would generally be lower than before but as they are generally higher (AGW!) we have reduced/later/ warming over snow covered area than over not snow covered area.

The biggest problem with more snow is that it makes it harder for the permafrost to refreeze, and that would lead to warmer landmass during summer, and more methane in the air.

Early snow traps heat in the ground and in the ice. Instead of the surface being able to radiate heat directly to and through the atmosphere (say - 40°C) it has to conduct the heat through all those nice air pockets in the snow. On sea ice it would effectively lower the number of FDDs

Early snow = slows down heat loss (insulator)
Late snow = slows down heat gain (albedo, specific heat of melt to overcome before ice and ground heat up, insulator)

Of course and model would depend on the latitude and time of year
That's probably the better explanation of my simplified version.
The Existential Climate Crisis Is Upon Us!

uniquorn

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1629
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 788
  • Likes Given: 164
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #73 on: September 28, 2019, 12:19:34 AM »
The CAB launching itself into the Beaufort.
Worldview, aqua modis, sep21-27  click to run

blumenkraft

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1570
  • Fans of Hans Club - circa 2018
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 694
  • Likes Given: 961
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #74 on: September 28, 2019, 08:24:28 AM »
The wind has some say in this.
Refugees welcome

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 392
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #75 on: September 28, 2019, 10:09:51 AM »
48 hours out

2 meter temperature anomaly from GFS 00z Sept 28 2019

the nascent polar vortex is weakening

Who knows at this point.  Buckle up for October, although there are signs that atmospheric momentum is picking up, maybe because the polar cell being flung across the continents creates a lot of interaction with the land.  Maybe solar activity picks up a little bit (who knew)?  Maybe a bunch of ice melts.  Maybe the oceans will stop slacking on the job.
I am not a scientist

uniquorn

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1629
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 788
  • Likes Given: 164
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #76 on: September 28, 2019, 10:49:34 AM »
Buckle up for October,<snippage>
Refreeze may be a bit slower
The wind has some say in this.
Yes, significant wind dispersion. unihamburg amsr2-uhh view of it, sep20-27. Cold there so the leads are likely to refreeze.

be cause

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 891
  • Citizenship .. a Lurker gets asylum
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 261
  • Likes Given: 218
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #77 on: September 28, 2019, 01:08:00 PM »
worldview have an excellent setting for viewing through the winter night . recently the views have been excellent in the region of the ever growing pole-hole in other viewing options . Perhaps Uniquorn or someone can share the setting ? Alot of cracks show open water . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...


Freegrass

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 289
  • Worried Warrior
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 160
  • Likes Given: 165
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #79 on: September 28, 2019, 04:19:56 PM »
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
September 27 - 3

Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water

Use pause function and slider to go frame by frame, or put it on a loop.
The Existential Climate Crisis Is Upon Us!

Aluminium

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 444
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 381
  • Likes Given: 264
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #80 on: September 29, 2019, 07:26:50 AM »
September 24-28.

2018.

blumenkraft

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1570
  • Fans of Hans Club - circa 2018
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 694
  • Likes Given: 961
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #81 on: September 29, 2019, 08:57:24 AM »
Arctic Sea Ice Reaches 2019 Minimum Extent

Refugees welcome

uniquorn

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1629
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 788
  • Likes Given: 164
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #82 on: September 29, 2019, 11:05:10 AM »
Mercator sea temperature 0m overlaid with unihamburg amsr2-uhh at 50pc transparent. amsr2 0% ice (open water, normally dark blue) has been set to fully transparent. sep1-28.

The CAB pushing into the Beaufort meeting resistance with warm water from amundsen gulf  and eastern chukchi. The warm current from east spitzbergen finally making headway against the ice export towards the fram strait. Similarly with the warm current from the Kara sea. Laptev also warm.
Warm winds forecast across chukchi over the next few days.
Hurricane Lorenzo forecast to move north at speed.
click to run
« Last Edit: September 29, 2019, 04:08:43 PM by uniquorn »

blumenkraft

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1570
  • Fans of Hans Club - circa 2018
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 694
  • Likes Given: 961
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #83 on: September 29, 2019, 11:23:27 AM »
Oh cool, Meereisportal is having a nice ice edge comparison 2012/2019!

https://data.meereisportal.de/maps/mosaic/edge/mm_2012/



Refugees welcome

blumenkraft

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1570
  • Fans of Hans Club - circa 2018
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 694
  • Likes Given: 961
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #84 on: September 29, 2019, 11:27:48 AM »
And here is a very depressing long term comparison.

https://data.meereisportal.de/maps/mosaic/edge/long/

Refugees welcome

Pavel

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 204
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 20
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #85 on: September 29, 2019, 11:02:12 PM »
Despite the persistent HP and lack of heat advection the high Arctic temperatures track near record warm levels

Stephan

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 802
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 270
  • Likes Given: 141
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #86 on: September 30, 2019, 08:37:06 AM »
DMI >80° N temperatures are until now closest to the 2016 track.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Freegrass

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 289
  • Worried Warrior
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 160
  • Likes Given: 165
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #87 on: September 30, 2019, 11:48:05 AM »
Has anyone noticed that the NAC is back? The ice lifted off the mainland all over the length of the CAB.

https://go.nasa.gov/2oqOofh
The Existential Climate Crisis Is Upon Us!

Freegrass

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 289
  • Worried Warrior
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 160
  • Likes Given: 165
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #88 on: September 30, 2019, 01:35:34 PM »
Last 48h + Five day Forecast
September 28 - 5

Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
The Existential Climate Crisis Is Upon Us!

Aleph_Null

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 135
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 48
  • Likes Given: 201
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #89 on: September 30, 2019, 02:26:40 PM »
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg231284.html#msg231284

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 9/25 to 9/30, Forecast: 9/30 to 10/3.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6807
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1705
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #90 on: September 30, 2019, 03:41:44 PM »
Despite the persistent HP and lack of heat advection the high Arctic temperatures track near record warm levels
FDDs in 2016-17 were a record low.
The 2016-2017 freezing season ended with JAXA extent at a record low maximum with total extent gain about 4% below the 10 year average.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

uniquorn

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1629
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 788
  • Likes Given: 164
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #91 on: October 01, 2019, 01:02:51 PM »
There's a lot going on above the pea green soup of the Laptev, but I'm not sure it's refreeze yet.
https://go.nasa.gov/2npk5FM
« Last Edit: October 02, 2019, 01:59:38 AM by uniquorn »

Freegrass

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 289
  • Worried Warrior
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 160
  • Likes Given: 165
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #92 on: October 01, 2019, 01:38:07 PM »
There's a lot going on above the pea green soup of the Laptev.
Are those algue a reoccurring event? It looks really green up there...
The Existential Climate Crisis Is Upon Us!

Freegrass

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 289
  • Worried Warrior
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 160
  • Likes Given: 165
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #93 on: October 01, 2019, 02:09:06 PM »
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
September 30 - 6

Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
The Existential Climate Crisis Is Upon Us!

Freegrass

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 289
  • Worried Warrior
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 160
  • Likes Given: 165
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #94 on: October 01, 2019, 04:48:53 PM »
Maybe it's a consequence of the large fires? When it rains, all that burned carbon gets flushed down the rivers?

I found this article.
https://www.jyi.org/2019-march/2019/3/1/a-chilly-change-in-perspective-on-arctic-algae-blooms

Quote
When in bloom

These activity phases are determined by the abundance of sunlight and nitrates. As surface waters warm in the spring, they become less dense and less prone to mixing with the colder water below. Relatively heavy pieces of organic matter begin to sink, creating a nutrient maximum a couple of meters below the surface. Springtime sunlight and sub-surface nutrients drove the phytoplankton out from underneath the ice into the open water during the warmer months, behavior the scientists expected to see. What makes these results surprising is the relative rate of production of the activity phases: summer was not found to be the productive season for phytoplankton in the Greenland Sea. Most of the annual production occurred in equal parts under the ice and at the ice’s edge, with a much smaller contribution coming from summertime open-water blooms. Late winter and spring are therefore the most fruitful seasons for phytoplankton, a departure from the traditional school of thought on Arctic algae blooms. Without the Biogeochemical-Argo floats’ year-round data collection, this fact would have gone unrealized.

Climate change

It is especially important to have correct measurements of phytoplankton biomass and production in the face of climate change, since any estimation of future algal activity demands an accurate starting point. The Greenland Sea is already responding to new climatic pressures: warmer temperatures lead to thinner ice and melt pools, which are dark pools of water on top of the ice. Sea ice that is thin and wet has a lower albedo than normal sea ice, so the Greenland Sea is absorbing more solar radiation and heating at an accelerating rate. Increased solar radiation also makes the Greenland SIZ more hospitable for sub-ice algae blooms, which serve to darken the ice and perpetuate warming even further. The positive feedback loop becomes even more dire in light of Mayot et al.’s findings. Phytoplankton underneath and at the edge of the sea ice—now known to be the Greenland Sea’s most lucrative producers—are most susceptible to the effects of decreasing ice thickness. Higher initial counts of those populations suggest an even more drastic amplification of algae blooms and their associated effects.
The Existential Climate Crisis Is Upon Us!

Freegrass

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 289
  • Worried Warrior
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 160
  • Likes Given: 165
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #95 on: October 01, 2019, 09:28:00 PM »
It's weird that this is happening right now, at the start of the dark season. It's like they're all coming out from underneath the ice to suck up the last rays of sunlight. Can the refreezing and the release of salt have something to do with this?

Edit; or is this just the reflection of the low sun on the clouds?
Edit2; Or the Aurora?
« Last Edit: October 01, 2019, 10:42:39 PM by Freegrass »
The Existential Climate Crisis Is Upon Us!

sailor

  • New ice
  • Posts: 97
  • I avoid polynya
    • View Profile
    • www.atomarxviento.com
  • Liked: 47
  • Likes Given: 23
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #96 on: October 01, 2019, 09:55:26 PM »
It's weird that this is happening right now, at the start of the dark season. It's like they're all coming out from underneath the ice to suck up the last rays of sunlight. Can the refreezing and the release of salt have something to do with this?
Winds have been very strong, and the North side of Svalbard is a lane where warmer saltier water circulates from the Atlantic, so that is a strong factor not in favor of ice coming back to the islands. But if strong winds turn direction it may do.
Actually the persistence of ice reaching as South as Svalbard has been weird in summer.
On the thin ice of modern life

gandul

  • New ice
  • Posts: 86
  • de verdad
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 19
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #97 on: October 01, 2019, 10:28:05 PM »
It's weird that this is happening right now, at the start of the dark season. It's like they're all coming out from underneath the ice to suck up the last rays of sunlight. Can the refreezing and the release of salt have something to do with this?

Edit; or is this just the reflection of the low sun on the clouds?
I think my first comment in thi Forum was about this. What is first the chicken or the egg?

Now thanks to the winds there is room for the West Spitsbergen to strengthen and not to sink early forming a pool of Atlantic water.
Then ice will be fulminated when it comes back south (will it be??)
Next year no ice south of Spitsbergen.
And so we go until something happens that the current weakens, more ice gets to the islands, and the current says bye way earlier.
Then... cyclical.
That’s the way I see the egg-chicken of Spitsbergen (current).

No me lo trago

Freegrass

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 289
  • Worried Warrior
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 160
  • Likes Given: 165
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #98 on: October 01, 2019, 10:40:38 PM »
Actually the persistence of ice reaching as South as Svalbard has been weird in summer.
Yes, that was something that I was curious about, why the ice edge on the Barents and Kara sea didn't move all that much over summer, especially because of all that warm salty water.
The Existential Climate Crisis Is Upon Us!

Freegrass

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 289
  • Worried Warrior
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 160
  • Likes Given: 165
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #99 on: October 01, 2019, 10:52:17 PM »
What is first the chicken or the egg?
The egg came first. A proto chicken laid an egg with a small change in the DNA that made it the first chicken.
The Existential Climate Crisis Is Upon Us!