Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The 2019/2020 freezing season  (Read 72729 times)

Iain

  • New ice
  • Posts: 67
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 20
  • Likes Given: 7
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #500 on: December 02, 2019, 06:05:30 AM »
@charles_oil

LoL, yes, it is set at a level Joe Public would be able to follow.

The BBC charter includes a commitment to  " ...inform, educate..."

E.G the recent nature programmes highlighting plastic waste in the seas being ingested by marine life .

Significantly, many more of the public now realise their small action has a consequence.

< I'm drifting OT, last post on this >

"If I have seen further than others, it is by standing upon the shoulders of giants." Isaac Newton

Aluminium

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 443
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 379
  • Likes Given: 264
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #501 on: December 02, 2019, 07:31:10 AM »
November 25 - December 1.

2018.

SimonF92

  • New ice
  • Posts: 89
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 29
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #502 on: December 02, 2019, 12:00:15 PM »
Quote
The rapid Chukchi Sea ice extent increase has abruptly stopped due to change in winds; November ends with lowest #seaice extent of record in @NSIDC data. Bering Sea extent better but is still less than half of average for Nov 30. #akwx #Arctic @Climatologist49 @ZLabe @seaice_de




Quote
Autumn 2019 at Utqiaġvik easily the warmest of the past 99 years due to no sea ice & record high nearshore #ssts. Avg temp 28.8F (-1.8C), previous warmest 2016. Trend of 10F (5.6C) since early '90s is stunning. #akwx #Arctic




https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

Rules for fitting a linear regression;

Constant variance
Linear
Independence
Normal distribution
Error free sampling of residuals

Makes me cringe seeing important data like that, represented like that.


Aleph_Null

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 133
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 48
  • Likes Given: 199
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #503 on: December 02, 2019, 12:48:00 PM »
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg239150.html#msg239150

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 11/27 to 12/2, Forecast: 12/2 to 12/5.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]

blumenkraft

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1557
  • Fans of Hans Club - circa 2018
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 690
  • Likes Given: 948
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #504 on: December 02, 2019, 05:37:50 PM »
Whoops, i forgot to post the Fram export via SAR yesterday.

Here is from 24.11 to 02.12. - including some bitchy flight paths.

And the wind forecast for Thursday.
Refugees welcome

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3106
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 402
  • Likes Given: 198
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #505 on: December 03, 2019, 06:28:14 PM »
Last year (Oct 2018 to May 2019)  a transpolar drift moved North Pole ice toward Fram Strait and ESS ice toward the NP. (See May 2019 post [with GIF] by A-Team in the Test thread)  This year, Mosaic is dancing around not going anywhere, it seems (so far).  This may be good for the ice, even as it gets chopped up and pushed together due to weather. 

The more ridges there are, the more snow stays on the surface (in drifts), unless all the snow gets blown into leads.   Hmmm.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Pavel

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 204
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 20
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #506 on: December 03, 2019, 10:34:39 PM »
A 946 hPa cyclone is going to set up in the northern Atlantic. Won't affect the ice pack directly but will boost the Fram export

ArcticMelt2

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 488
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 62
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #507 on: December 05, 2019, 07:03:19 AM »
The Pacific side is in line with 2017.



But according to the average annual values, 2019 is unprecedented.



The Pacific side of the record is weakened. It could be terrible for the 2020 melting season.

blumenkraft

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1557
  • Fans of Hans Club - circa 2018
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 690
  • Likes Given: 948
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #508 on: December 05, 2019, 09:35:58 AM »
Arctic Resurrection Lows; Passing the Baffin Bay Cyclone cemetery once again.

Link >> https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/11/arctic-resurrection-lows-passing-baffin.html
Refugees welcome

Aleph_Null

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 133
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 48
  • Likes Given: 199
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #509 on: December 05, 2019, 12:44:43 PM »
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg239603.html#msg239603

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 11/30 to 12/5, Forecast: 12/5 to 12/8.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]

Aluminium

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 443
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 379
  • Likes Given: 264
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #510 on: December 07, 2019, 08:03:43 AM »
November 29 - December 6.

2018.

Aleph_Null

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 133
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 48
  • Likes Given: 199
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #511 on: December 08, 2019, 12:59:16 AM »
Full-size version available, with synchronized comparison {2019, 2018, 2017, 2016}, in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg239938.html#msg239938

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
November 2019 review.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]

Aleph_Null

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 133
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 48
  • Likes Given: 199
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #512 on: December 08, 2019, 01:45:36 PM »
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg239968.html#msg239968

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 12/3 to 12/8, Forecast: 12/8 to 12/11.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]

blumenkraft

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1557
  • Fans of Hans Club - circa 2018
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 690
  • Likes Given: 948
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #513 on: December 08, 2019, 04:26:56 PM »
7-day hindsight mean Arctic temperature anomalies.
Refugees welcome

blumenkraft

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1557
  • Fans of Hans Club - circa 2018
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 690
  • Likes Given: 948
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #514 on: December 08, 2019, 04:39:41 PM »
Last weeks Fram export
Refugees welcome