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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #250 on: October 16, 2019, 04:25:52 PM »
In the last week or so....
- The Central Arctic Sea (North of 80) is freezing quickly,
- Most other seas are freezing very slowly,

Perhaps the persistent high +ve SSTs and the Arctic temperature anomalies (-ve near the pole, mostly +ve or very +ve elsewhere) have something to do with it.

Click gif to start - repeats 4 times
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #251 on: October 17, 2019, 08:39:43 AM »
September 26 - October 16 (fast).

Archimid

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #252 on: October 17, 2019, 09:38:21 AM »
Ice begets ice. Even above 80N there is no ice creation except relatively close to the ice edge. What happens when there is no ice to begin with?
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

binntho

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #253 on: October 17, 2019, 09:56:04 AM »
Ice begets ice. Even above 80N there is no ice creation except relatively close to the ice edge. What happens when there is no ice to begin with?
The shore begets ice as well.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

Archimid

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #254 on: October 17, 2019, 10:23:43 AM »
Indeed. In Aluminium's awesome animation that is evident.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

El Cid

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #255 on: October 17, 2019, 01:34:51 PM »
Someone theorized a couple years ago that when we lose all the summer ice, autumn ice growth will start from the edges. it seems reasonable to me now, although first ice will probably start to "grow" at the CAA/North Greenland and spread from there during the winter seasons of the future...

grixm

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #256 on: October 17, 2019, 03:57:34 PM »
We are now at all-time low NSIDC 5-day average extent for the date:



Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #257 on: October 17, 2019, 07:30:01 PM »
A precarious combination.
Lowest extent for this time of year + lowest volume.
Extent - NSIDC
Volume - DMI
« Last Edit: October 17, 2019, 11:19:26 PM by Thomas Barlow »

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #258 on: October 18, 2019, 12:06:59 AM »
In the last week or so....
- The Central Arctic Sea (North of 80) is freezing quickly,
- Most other seas are freezing very slowly,

Perhaps the persistent high +ve SSTs and the Arctic temperature anomalies (-ve near the pole, mostly +ve or very +ve elsewhere) have something to do with it.

Click gif to start - repeats 4 times

The arctic temperature anomalies are more likely the result of the SSTs, not causing them. water has a vastly larger specific heat capacity than air.

El Cid

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #259 on: October 18, 2019, 07:34:52 AM »

Perhaps the persistent high +ve SSTs and the Arctic temperature anomalies (-ve near the pole, mostly +ve or very +ve elsewhere) have something to do with it.


The arctic temperature anomalies are more likely the result of the SSTs, not causing them. water has a vastly larger specific heat capacity than air.

I am no expert, but also think that at this time of the year what matters is SSTs and most everything else derives from that. Also, cloudiness plays an important part but that is mostly driven by ocean temp differences (with the surrounding land and the upper atmosphere).

High SSTs keep the air warm and clouds keep the warmth in the system, slowing refreeze very much and keeping SSTs still high, and you go back to the beginning of the sentence.

Jontenoy

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #260 on: October 18, 2019, 10:08:50 AM »
Extent is a LOT lower than the next lowest . I wonder what effect this could have on next September if the slope of the re freeze graph keeps to this rate ?

Pavel

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #261 on: October 18, 2019, 11:35:49 AM »
Extent is a LOT lower than the next lowest . I wonder what effect this could have on next September if the slope of the re freeze graph keeps to this rate ?
The ice could be more thin than usuall. But the freezing season is long enough to make up to 2m-thickness FYI. Extra snowfalls can protect the ice in May and June like it was in 2017

Archimid

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #262 on: October 18, 2019, 11:49:36 AM »
Quote
Extra snowfalls can protect the ice in May and June like it was in 2017...

Snow has both saved us and failed us before.  I would prefer not to reach a new record minimum maximum and run the risk of a record melt season. There might not be a way back from that.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Aleph_Null

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #263 on: October 18, 2019, 01:12:29 PM »
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg233434.html#msg233434

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/13 to 10/18, Forecast: 10/18 to 10/21.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]

RikW

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #264 on: October 18, 2019, 01:28:03 PM »
Finally a century increase, first of this melting season;

In the last 30 years (1990-2019) only in 1996 the first century increase was later, november 26th, but 1996 also had the highest minimum in the last 3 decades.

Another maybe interesting fact, since minimum the gain was 1.271.299; When we check other years, the gain from minimum was till october 17th was on average 2.1M. (90's: 2.18, 00's 2.09, 10's 2.07). That it is the lowest gain from minimum till october 17th in the last 30 years; 2018 2nd in that ranking, 2007 3rd;



colchonero

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #265 on: October 18, 2019, 02:05:36 PM »
If Jaxa is correct, the most substantial gain today (yesterday) was on the Russian side. Coastal ice is expanding in all 3 seas (Kara, Laptev, ESS). The main pack looks to be just miles away from the Russian coast, at the Kara-Laptev border behind SZ, and there looks to be some ice in the middle of the ocean in ESS. I don't if it will become some kind of ESS arm or will it disappear on radar. I just know I wouldn't rely much on gfs temp anomalies on climatereanalyzer because the model can't include the ice that will probably form in the next days. This is a 10 days out anomaly forecast and you can clearly see an almost perfect ice pack border shape from today, surrounded by red color.



And  if you take the slideshow, red "origin" doesn't move at all, it just expands towards the pole (which is probably real like a normal "heat" wave) and then "destroys" shape of the pack.  I mean anomaly itself is probably correct, it's just the progression (or the lack of) of it that is questionable, since model can't calculate new ice that is forming.

be cause

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #266 on: October 18, 2019, 06:37:28 PM »
look back a year and the temp anomaly outlook was very similar . However 10 days later the reality was a much colder Arctic . The refreeze had accelerated to @ 170k sqkm per day .. a rate that was maintained for @ 3 weeks and earlier long-range forecasts were proved meaningless . b.c.
 
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #267 on: October 19, 2019, 07:23:13 AM »
A GIF showing the freezing of the fjords northwest Greenland, taken from DMI Lincon crop.

The freezing starts around the 17th of September here.

From 06.08, many many frames, big file, click to play.

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oren

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #268 on: October 19, 2019, 09:08:44 AM »
Great animation, thank you b_l.

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #269 on: October 19, 2019, 11:35:01 AM »
Welcome, Oren! Glad you like it. :)
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aslan

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #270 on: October 19, 2019, 12:17:23 PM »
Even for the Arctic Ocean, we will be hard press to end the winter with at least a 2m first year ice, putting the risk of a memory of this summer. The islands on the russian side are nearing or breaking record which are only a few years old, like Ostrov Vrangel :

http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=21982&month=10&year=2019

versus 2016 :

http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=21982&month=10&year=2016

Or Ostrov Kotelnyj :

http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=21432&month=10&year=2019

versus 2018

http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=21432&month=10&year=2018

Or Ostrov Vize :

http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=20069&month=10&year=2019

versus 2016 :

http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=20069&month=10&year=2016

And again, a layer of low level clouds is keeping in check the refreze, as shown for example with Ostrov Vrangel between 300 and 600 meters since the end of the Summer :

http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=21982&decoded=yes&ndays=50&ano=2019&mes=10&day=19&hora=06

And SSTs are still extrememly warm, locally up to 7 or 8 (!) °C. And with the clouds in place, cooling is going to be slow. It is a sure bet that southern Chukchi would not freeze before December or January, and it is increasingly likely that this sea could not fully refreeze before the end of the winter.
For now, the downward IR flux at surface is a bit less averaged over Arctic comapred to record holder 2018 and 2016, meaning a bit more heat is escaping the furnace of the Arctic. But we are starting with an ocean wich is way warmer than in 2016 or 2018 and to cool down this thing this small diff is not enough...

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #271 on: October 19, 2019, 01:44:19 PM »
Hullo aslan,

Really great to get real data from the Russian sites. I don't get to see it very often and the Russian Arctic shore is awfully long. Keep 'em going every so often, please.

The Chukchi & ESS Sea Ice graphs are writing lines on the unused part of the graph paper big-time.
« Last Edit: October 19, 2019, 01:57:07 PM by gerontocrat »
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Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #272 on: October 19, 2019, 03:52:42 PM »
Arctic Basin at lowest extent for this time of year.
https://tinyurl.com/yyhw8bs4

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #273 on: October 19, 2019, 05:02:15 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 18 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 4,313,171 km2 ...

Arctic Sea Ice Area is 752 k below the 2010's average.
...
In general, as climate change has caused, decade by decade, sea ice loss in the Arctic, I would expect the end of a decade to have less than the decade's average.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #274 on: October 19, 2019, 06:11:34 PM »
Not by 752k if you think of the 2010's average as 5 years before today and a trend of around 80k per year.
Anyway the point of the post was to contrast the Central Arctic Sea with the other seas.

The mosaic project is happening when the Central Arctic Sea is not behaving in line with recent years.

And in considerable contrast with its neighbours - chukchi ess especially
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #275 on: October 19, 2019, 08:11:18 PM »
Not really on-topic but surely of interest for anyone following this thread:

Omega Tau Podcast - Weather forecasting at the ECMWF

Quote
Earlier this year I visited the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, a European organization that produces global weather forecasts and performs research on how to improve those. The episode has three parts. First, Hilda Carr gives us an overview of the organization, its purpose, and its history. Then I talk with Peter Bauer about weather and climate modeling and about encoding these models efficiently in software programs that run on supercomputers. Part three is a conversation with Tony McNally about where the ECMWF gets its data and how it is continuously fed into the "running" model.

Direct link >> http://omegataupodcast.net/326-weather-forecasting-at-the-ecmwf/

Audio link >> https://overcast.fm/+T6jAOOlk
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #276 on: October 20, 2019, 08:23:11 AM »
October 12-19.

2018.

Aleph_Null

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #277 on: October 21, 2019, 12:42:05 PM »
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg233673.html#msg233673

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/16 to 10/21, Forecast: 10/21 to 10/24.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]

Archimid

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #278 on: October 21, 2019, 02:06:18 PM »
October 12-19.

There seems to be some spontaneous growth in the ESS. Isn't that area where uniquorn is searching for shoals?
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

kassy

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #279 on: October 21, 2019, 02:15:23 PM »
About time.  ;)

And yes that is the area were most of the examples were from because it is rather shallow.
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Rodius

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #280 on: October 22, 2019, 01:57:32 AM »
When is the freeze season going to begin?

tzupancic

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #281 on: October 22, 2019, 06:48:09 AM »
The historically late advancement of the Arctic Sea Ice extent is quite noteworthy, to say the least. It is also fascinating that so little attention has been paid to this ongoing event on this forum. Nevertheless, it would appear that accumulated heat in the Arctic Ocean/system is an important factor.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #282 on: October 22, 2019, 07:32:07 AM »
October 17-21.

2018.

El Cid

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #283 on: October 22, 2019, 08:04:27 AM »
.... Nevertheless, it would appear that accumulated heat in the Arctic Ocean/system is an important factor.

It seems to be THE most important factor

binntho

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #284 on: October 22, 2019, 08:19:34 AM »
October 17-21.

2018.

Interesting difference between the two years - last year the growth is almost all from the ice edge, into the ESS and Chuckhi, while this year the growth seems to be mostly from the Siberian shores into the Laptev and western EES while the Chuckhi and Beaufort seem to be stalling big time.

Edit: Lookin at Null-School, there have been persistent cold winds blowing from the interior and into the Laptev, should explain the ice growth there.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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KiwiGriff

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #285 on: October 22, 2019, 09:21:52 AM »
Quote
It is also fascinating that so little attention has been paid to this ongoing event on this forum. Nevertheless, it would appear that accumulated heat in the Arctic Ocean/system is an important factor.
Many have nothing to add and don't want to get yelled at for cluttering up the thread with their inane chatter.
Albedo, ocean heat content , decline of old ice .
Weather is the other factor.
One would suggest that weather is all that is stopping A BOE in the near term.. less than a decade.
Then it will get truly interesting. 

slow wing

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #286 on: October 22, 2019, 09:22:11 AM »
.... Nevertheless, it would appear that accumulated heat in the Arctic Ocean/system is an important factor.

It seems to be THE most important factor


Wondering if the record late refreeze may be due, at least in large part, to the Arctic basin having been stormy since the extent minimum?


I have posted my speculation on the importance of storms in the refreeze here on the Stupid Questions thread.

pearscot

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #287 on: October 22, 2019, 05:28:28 PM »
I'm amazed to see how the arctic is looking. I thought the minimum would have been lower, but I normally get it wrong when it comes to my predictions here.

What a strange refreeze season though! I suspect all that heat (well relative heat) in the oceans remains a formidable force. Very shocking to me...I thought the ice was going to grow rather quickly given how weak of an ending the season had.
pls!

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #288 on: October 22, 2019, 05:46:08 PM »
Quote
It is also fascinating that so little attention has been paid to this ongoing event on this forum. Nevertheless, it would appear that accumulated heat in the Arctic Ocean/system is an important factor.
Many have nothing to add and don't want to get yelled at for cluttering up the thread with their inane chatter.
Albedo, ocean heat content , decline of old ice .
Weather is the other factor.
One would suggest that weather is all that is stopping A BOE in the near term.. less than a decade.
Then it will get truly interesting.

My understanding is this: The heat lost through emission into the atmosphere is what cools the Earth. There isn't enough insolation to balance the heat loss through the year at the poles. The oceans and the Atmosphere transfer heat to the poles from the tropics where insolation is greater than the heat loss from emissions. The Arctic ocean is effectively insulated from oceanic transport by the continually refreshed halocline. The only way to create a BOE is transport of heat and water vapor by the atmosphere to north of 80 degrees, even from the surrounding peripheral seas. I'm not sure if this is what you mean by weather? If it's cold then there wont be a BOE, if it's warm and wet then there will be?


« Last Edit: October 22, 2019, 06:03:31 PM by RoxTheGeologist »

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #289 on: October 22, 2019, 06:01:13 PM »
The historically late advancement of the Arctic Sea Ice extent is quite noteworthy, to say the least. It is also fascinating that so little attention has been paid to this ongoing event on this forum. Nevertheless, it would appear that accumulated heat in the Arctic Ocean/system is an important factor.

We're all paying attention to it from what I can see. 

philopek

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #290 on: October 22, 2019, 07:17:30 PM »
Barrow webcam is on it's way back up to full service, just for those who are interested.

You have the visit their site and read the NOTE: to see what i mean ;)

The ASIG image does not represent the actual conditions.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #291 on: October 22, 2019, 08:33:43 PM »
What a drift map. Don't think I have seen the just about the entire Arctic Sea Ice being shoved in one direction before.
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HapHazard

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #292 on: October 22, 2019, 08:37:00 PM »
Good thing that didn't happen in July or August  :-\

Pavel

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #293 on: October 22, 2019, 08:47:52 PM »
Good thing that didn't happen in July or August  :-\
The MYI leaving to the Fram strait and being replaced by FYI (or even open water) is not a good thing. We may start the next melt season with the thin FYI north of 80 latitude and very thin ice on the peripheral seas.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #294 on: October 22, 2019, 09:12:41 PM »
Generally everywhere on the low side but it could have been worse :). CAB extent hasn't passed the 2018 line yet (brown)
Wipneus amsr2-uhh regional extent, oct21

Sarat

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #295 on: October 22, 2019, 09:25:39 PM »
Wondering how much ice if at all we will see in the Bearing Sea this year.

KiwiGriff

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #296 on: October 22, 2019, 10:20:52 PM »
please excuse my yammering inane crap.
 
Quote
My understanding is this: The heat lost through emission into the atmosphere is what cools the Earth. There isn't enough insolation to balance the heat loss through the year at the poles. The oceans and the Atmosphere transfer heat to the poles from the tropics where insolation is greater than the heat loss from emissions. The Arctic ocean is effectively insulated from oceanic transport by the continually refreshed halocline. The only way to create a BOE is transport of heat and water vapor by the atmosphere to north of 80 degrees, even from the surrounding peripheral seas. I'm not sure if this is what you mean by weather? If it's cold then there wont be a BOE, if it's warm and wet then there will be?
Yes but.
The seas in the arctic are warming despite your claim they can not .
 http://oceanrep.geomar.de/10968/1/2010_Dmitrenko_JPO4339.pdf
https://archive.arcus.org/arcss/sass/sass1projects/downloads/10_steele_warmingtrends_08.pdf

ffs do I really have to explain the term weather on here?
weather
noun
the state of the atmosphere at a particular place and time as regards heat, cloudiness, dryness, sunshine, wind, rain, etc.
 That word weather contains an entire scientific  discipline we call meteorology.
The interplay of weather on ice state is a hell of a lot more complex than warm wet= melt  and cold dry= no melt. 
Cold dry, less clouds, more  insolation, less atmospheric heat transport, more radiation to space , more sublimation. Warm wet, more clouds, less  insolation, more atmospheric heat transport, less radiation to space, less sublimation.  Wind effects sea state,   ocean mixing, ocean heat content profiles, salinity profiles. Wind can mean less ice or thicker pack ice . Wet falls as snow more insulation less surface melt,  etc etc etc...
 Weather is a complex random variable. You need at lest a doctorate and decades of work to begin to understand its full implications on ice state  .....

There is plenty of debate that we have reached a plateau in ice decline based on extent.
The same idea is not supported by the decline in volume.
 Continue the trend in ice volume/ extent  down and add the known variability from weather we see in the ice records.
How soon before BOE is a possibility? What implication will that have on weather and most interesting politics?
« Last Edit: October 23, 2019, 01:51:59 AM by KiwiGriff »

Iain

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #297 on: October 23, 2019, 06:09:21 AM »
“How soon before BOE is a possibility?”

About 14 years, if the linear trend continues
That’s a seriously scary number and worth mentioning in conversation, where appropriate.
http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAprSepCurrent.png

With the spiky nature of the data, more likely to be sooner than that than not.
Also have to consider the many competing +ve and –ve feedbacks, but the timescale is so short, less than half of the Piomas record, I think their effect is unlikely to deflect the trend.
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SimonF92

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #298 on: October 23, 2019, 02:32:27 PM »
Some advances beginning to happen

kassy

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #299 on: October 23, 2019, 04:50:41 PM »
From an article on the MOSAIC thread:

Many of the best floes identified as being at least 80cm (32 inches) thick in satellite images have turned out to be less than half that.

...

Preliminary analysis suggests that the ice in this region is much younger than usually seen at this time of year. The ice around the ship started forming about 300 days ago – around two months later than the usual onset of the Arctic winter freeze. Those two months of missing freezing make a big difference, reducing the ice thickness by around half.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20191018-the-problem-of-thinning-arctic-sea-ice?ocid=global_future_rss

It will be interesting to see how slow this years refreeze will be. It looks like the slow pattern will continue.

At least with MOSAIC we will have a closer view then usual.
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