please excuse my yammering inane crap.
My understanding is this: The heat lost through emission into the atmosphere is what cools the Earth. There isn't enough insolation to balance the heat loss through the year at the poles. The oceans and the Atmosphere transfer heat to the poles from the tropics where insolation is greater than the heat loss from emissions. The Arctic ocean is effectively insulated from oceanic transport by the continually refreshed halocline. The only way to create a BOE is transport of heat and water vapor by the atmosphere to north of 80 degrees, even from the surrounding peripheral seas. I'm not sure if this is what you mean by weather? If it's cold then there wont be a BOE, if it's warm and wet then there will be?
Yes but.
The seas in the arctic are warming despite your claim they can not .
http://oceanrep.geomar.de/10968/1/2010_Dmitrenko_JPO4339.pdfhttps://archive.arcus.org/arcss/sass/sass1projects/downloads/10_steele_warmingtrends_08.pdfffs do I really have to explain the term weather on here?
weather
noun
the state of the atmosphere at a particular place and time as regards heat, cloudiness, dryness, sunshine, wind, rain, etc.
That word weather contains an entire scientific discipline we call meteorology.
The interplay of weather on ice state is a hell of a lot more complex than warm wet= melt and cold dry= no melt.
Cold dry, less clouds, more insolation, less atmospheric heat transport, more radiation to space , more sublimation. Warm wet, more clouds, less insolation, more atmospheric heat transport, less radiation to space, less sublimation. Wind effects sea state, ocean mixing, ocean heat content profiles, salinity profiles. Wind can mean less ice or thicker pack ice . Wet falls as snow more insulation less surface melt, etc etc etc...
Weather is a complex random variable. You need at lest a doctorate and decades of work to begin to understand its full implications on ice state .....
There is plenty of debate that we have reached a plateau in ice decline based on extent.
The same idea is not supported by the decline in volume.
Continue the trend in ice volume/ extent down and add the known variability from weather we see in the ice records.
How soon before BOE is a possibility? What implication will that have on weather and most interesting politics?