Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The 2019/2020 freezing season  (Read 166670 times)

tzupancic

  • New ice
  • Posts: 60
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 15
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #300 on: October 24, 2019, 04:28:33 AM »
As the historically late advancement of the Arctic Sea Ice re-freeze continues, it would appear that understanding what changes in the system are affecting the current observed results would be useful.  I suggested that accumulated heat in the Arctic Ocean system is important and various sources such as http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/satellite/index.uk.php support that hypothesis.  Data does indicate that heat has increased in the Arctic Ocean. If so, where did this heat come from and how did it get there? This appears to be an important and interesting question.  I would suggest that aside from transport from outside the Arctic basin, total solar irradiance on the Arctic Sea itself had a significant impact on adding heat to the Arctic Ocean system in 2019. This was significantly affected by weather, of course, and also by early season reductions in albedo. 

Comments?
« Last Edit: October 24, 2019, 04:38:08 AM by tzupancic »

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5878
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1982
  • Likes Given: 1757
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #301 on: October 24, 2019, 04:40:26 AM »
Early loss of ice area inside the Arctic Basin as well as outside easily explains the accumulated heat. Check out the series of attached charts (big thanks to Tealight / Nico Sun for providing these in real time). Note the AWP calculation does not take clouds/weather into account, just solar angles and ice/water albedo.
Not surprisingly, the same areas with the highest anomalies are the same ones with relatively delayed refreeze. I expect this pattern to continue in November and December.

tzupancic

  • New ice
  • Posts: 60
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 15
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #302 on: October 24, 2019, 04:58:52 AM »
Forum members will recall that earlier this year the discussion was largely about conditioning the ice. In particular heat transfer from water vapor just above the ice was seen as key to creating melt ponds that would drive melt. Low humidity, clear skies would not do this.  Solar energy impacting the system was not seen as a key driver of sea ice melt.

Thus, when significant low humidity clear skies occurred over substantial areas in the arctic basin many predicted a non record breaking melt. Which is exactly what transpired.

But what is the significance of the heat that entered the Arctic Sea system?  Is this added energy now affecting the re-freeze?

Aluminium

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 681
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 618
  • Likes Given: 371
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #303 on: October 24, 2019, 07:43:14 AM »
October 19-23.

2018.

El Cid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1103
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 444
  • Likes Given: 87
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #304 on: October 24, 2019, 08:14:09 AM »
...  I would suggest that aside from transport from outside the Arctic basin, total solar irradiance on the Arctic Sea itself had a significant impact on adding heat to the Arctic Ocean system in 2019. This was significantly affected by weather, of course, and also by early season reductions in albedo. 

Comments?

I would think that the whole Arctic Amplification thing is like this: heat reaching the Earth is mostly accumulated in oceans. So oceans are warmer. This warmth finds its way to the Arctic ("Atlantification" and "Pacification") making the ice extent smaller, and ice thinner. This makes it possible for the Sun to melt huge chunks of ice during summer, which leaves huge areas blue, and these absorb sunlight (seen on Nico's charts) which make the Arctic ocean even warmer.
And this happens every year. Some years the weather is more "helpful" to further this process than in others, but anyway the direction is obvious: warmer Arctic ocean, and more and more summer absorption of the Sun's energy.

This year was oustanding in regards to the above, as can be seen on the SST charts, attached (even relative to the warmest years the seas are still warm up there)

Sorry for the simplifications...

meddoc

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 262
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #305 on: October 24, 2019, 11:33:13 AM »
A Polar Vortex Split is coming in about a week.
This is again, very bad news, coming earlier Year by Year.
The Oceans are just spewing out Heat, relentlessly.

El Cid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1103
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 444
  • Likes Given: 87
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #306 on: October 24, 2019, 12:26:43 PM »
A Polar Vortex Split is coming in about a week.


Who told you that? I attach 10hpa GFS forecast T+8 days. I see no split at all

El Cid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1103
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 444
  • Likes Given: 87
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #307 on: October 24, 2019, 12:27:42 PM »
A Polar Vortex Split is coming in about a week.
This is again, very bad news, coming earlier Year by Year.


Any hard data to substantiate the claim that "splits are happening earlier year by year"?

I don't think so

EDIT: just to clarify things, vortex splits are caused by sudden stratospheric warming events and happen 10-30 miles high up, as written well here:

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/polar-vortex/

meddoc

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 262
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #308 on: October 24, 2019, 12:47:29 PM »
My bad. I meant 70 hPa Level. Also, forgot to add link.

Well, just my Experience.
I remember 2013- 14 Winter saw this Configuration firstly in December, 2018 also around end of December.


Aleph_Null

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 157
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 58
  • Likes Given: 253
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #309 on: October 24, 2019, 01:11:59 PM »
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg234080.html#msg234080

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/19 to 10/24, Forecast: 10/24 to 10/27.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]

grixm

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 305
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 195
  • Likes Given: 61
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #310 on: October 24, 2019, 03:34:09 PM »
Now only volume data left for a slam-dunk record on all metrics for this date.

NSIDC Total Area as at 23 October 2019 (5 day trailing average)  4,665,239 km2

2016 is now MORE than 2019 by just 19 k, so on this day 2019 area is lowest in the satellite record. It is still likely that from now on 2016 will be the year to watch - very low area gains for some time to come (see graph).

RoxTheGeologist

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 501
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 149
  • Likes Given: 112
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #311 on: October 24, 2019, 05:36:04 PM »
Forum members will recall that earlier this year the discussion was largely about conditioning the ice. In particular heat transfer from water vapor just above the ice was seen as key to creating melt ponds that would drive melt. Low humidity, clear skies would not do this.  Solar energy impacting the system was not seen as a key driver of sea ice melt.

Thus, when significant low humidity clear skies occurred over substantial areas in the arctic basin many predicted a non record breaking melt. Which is exactly what transpired.

But what is the significance of the heat that entered the Arctic Sea system?  Is this added energy now affecting the re-freeze?

I thought that the discussion was around this hypothesis; cloudy weather reduces heat loss and/or increases melting until around mid may depending on latitude. As the days lengthen insolation becomes the main source of heat and clearer days would transfer more heat to the ice. Melt ponds are the first indicator of  melting, and dramatically reduce albedo. I don't recall individuals saying clear skies would reduce ice melt in the high insolation months.

More heat in the ocean from decreased ice cover will slow down refreeze, particularly if that heat has been mixed in at depth. Cooling the surface water will induce convection if the salinity profile allows. However, a slow refreeze would be better in many ways for cooling the earth. When the ice forms it will insulate the mixed layer. Surface temperatures will fall further, because less heat is being transferred to the atmosphere from the ocean; it traps more heat in the ocean, and, presumably, slows down ice thickening. Putting a layer of insulation between the relatively warm ocean and the very cold Arctic night is not conducive to cooling the ocean

The best analogy I can think of is coffee, Putting a thin lid on it is a VERY effective way of stopping it cooling, as long as the lid doesn't melt, which makes the whole analogy rather disappointing for coffee drinkers.




gandul

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 513
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 141
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #312 on: October 24, 2019, 05:53:24 PM »
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg234080.html#msg234080

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/19 to 10/24, Forecast: 10/24 to 10/27.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]
The wind bouts are arresting the growth of ice over ESS (temporarily)
And keeping the Chukchi wide open.
Chukchi has already passed the record of recent years by so much...

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8662
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3366
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #313 on: October 24, 2019, 06:26:01 PM »
I suggest that no matter how we got here, there is a connection between
- where the ice is and is not,
- SST anomalies,
- Surface temperature anomalies.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

RoxTheGeologist

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 501
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 149
  • Likes Given: 112
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #314 on: October 24, 2019, 06:43:18 PM »
I suggest that no matter how we got here, there is a connection between
- where the ice is and is not,
- SST anomalies,
- Surface temperature anomalies.

Warm water stops the ice forming and heats up the air... if the air warn't warm then, I guess, the ocean wouldn't be losing heat....

Stephan

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1288
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 539
  • Likes Given: 222
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #315 on: October 24, 2019, 07:28:52 PM »
I think the corresponding shape of ice-covered areas on the one hand and higher surface temperature anomalies on the other hand can be easily explained. If in the long term (e.g. median 1981-2010) a certain area of the Arctic Ocean has been usually covered with ice at a certain date and this year it is not, the difference in surface temperature (ice-covered = well below - 2°C; ice-free = above -1.8°C, maybe above 0°C) must be clearly visible in the SST anomaly map.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

KiwiGriff

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 754
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 422
  • Likes Given: 126
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #316 on: October 24, 2019, 08:37:47 PM »
As always reading the comments adds to knowledge. 
One small piece of the jigsaw not mentioned is some of the heat released from the oceans in autumn results in warming the surrounding land rather than being lost to space.
Some of this energy will be returned to the atmosphere over the sea  ice in spring hastening melting .
Of course as always it is far more complex than a few words will convey but most can full in the details.
“If you are part of a society that votes, then do so. There may be no candidates and no measures you want to vote for ... but there are certain to be ones you want to vote against. In case of doubt, vote against. By this rule you will rarely go wrong.”

― Robert A. Heinlein, Time Enough for Love

RoxTheGeologist

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 501
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 149
  • Likes Given: 112
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #317 on: October 24, 2019, 08:56:40 PM »
I think the corresponding shape of ice-covered areas on the one hand and higher surface temperature anomalies on the other hand can be easily explained. If in the long term (e.g. median 1981-2010) a certain area of the Arctic Ocean has been usually covered with ice at a certain date and this year it is not, the difference in surface temperature (ice-covered = well below - 2°C; ice-free = above -1.8°C, maybe above 0°C) must be clearly visible in the SST anomaly map.

Exactly. That's a much better explanation than I gave. The air has a much lower specific heat capacity than water, so water is the temperature 'buffer'. Once ice forms the ocean can no longer transfer heat to the air as effectively, and the temperatures will tend to the long term average.
 

uniquorn

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2473
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1341
  • Likes Given: 221
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #318 on: October 24, 2019, 09:16:27 PM »
Probably best to use SST rather than anomalies, they only add another layer of complexity to think about. They look (and are) more dramatic though.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8662
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3366
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #319 on: October 24, 2019, 09:48:54 PM »
I think the corresponding shape of ice-covered areas on the one hand and higher surface temperature anomalies on the other hand can be easily explained. If in the long term (e.g. median 1981-2010) a certain area of the Arctic Ocean has been usually covered with ice at a certain date and this year it is not, the difference in surface temperature (ice-covered = well below - 2°C; ice-free = above -1.8°C, maybe above 0°C) must be clearly visible in the SST anomaly map.

Exactly. That's a much better explanation than I gave. The air has a much lower specific heat capacity than water, so water is the temperature 'buffer'. Once ice forms the ocean can no longer transfer heat to the air as effectively, and the temperatures will tend to the long term average.
What about that heating 1 m3 of Water requires the same amount of energy as heating 3,000 m3 of air?
What about thermal conductivity?

Add wind, sea ice drift, ocean swells, cloud, fog and suddenly we are talking models with big computers and they still get it wrong.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

RoxTheGeologist

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 501
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 149
  • Likes Given: 112
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #320 on: October 24, 2019, 10:29:35 PM »

I think I'm missing the point. I'll try stating this in a different way to try and understand.

If there is, say, typically, 0.5m of ice, then there is less transmission of heat out of the ocean to the atmosphere because of the ice's insulating properties. If there is no ice, the ocean heat can freely escape to the atmosphere. If there is more heat coming out of the ocean the air will be warmer than over sea ice. It doesn't take much of a drop in water temperature to warm the air to the same temp. Of course, there may well be more water vapor to trap heat from the ocean, but that would also correlate with lack of ice, as one would expect both the temp and the frost point to be higher than average.


johnm33

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1469
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 203
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #321 on: October 24, 2019, 10:48:16 PM »
tzu "comments"
My 2c, the slowing of the Gulf stream/N.Atlantic drift imho is caused by mixing with arctic waters which are inert and hold fast to the American mainland, that inertia is reflected in the size of the cold blob which is the G.S./Arctic water mixed to latitudinal equilibrium. The cold blob forces the G.S. south, it's relative inertia means it spends more time further south, travels further, gets warmer, more saline and arrives later. The loss of ice cover in Barentz has allowed more Atlantic water to force it's way into the Arctic over that shelf, in turn this has led to an [unconfirmed] steady increase in flow at depth though Fram. In turn this acts a little like a flywheel and if more water is leaving here more must flow in, according to 'current' circumstances. Generally this means increased inflow from the Atlantic either side of Svalbard or from the Pacific influenced by tides and barometric pressure, so extremely variable on any day. Every tidal cycle can add a little more power to the 'flywheel', and given the activity at Humbolt it seems something similar is evolving in Nares.

Archimid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3107
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 755
  • Likes Given: 195
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #322 on: October 24, 2019, 11:32:52 PM »
I think that the anomalous temperatures by the Greenland "crack" offer the most compelling evidence for the connections between the sun, albedo, ice and open ocean.

That "crack' was much more than a crack. It allowed the ocean to absorb vast amounts of solar power that is now being irradiated out. Larger earlier cracks will make this anomaly stronger and last longer. At some point, the ice will thicken enough to reduce the anomaly
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

harpy

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 193
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 56
  • Likes Given: 16
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #323 on: October 26, 2019, 12:38:52 AM »
I think that the anomalous temperatures by the Greenland "crack" offer the most compelling evidence for the connections between the sun, albedo, ice and open ocean.

That "crack' was much more than a crack. It allowed the ocean to absorb vast amounts of solar power that is now being irradiated out. Larger earlier cracks will make this anomaly stronger and last longer. At some point, the ice will thicken enough to reduce the anomaly

Which temperature anomalies are you referring to, exactly?

Archimid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3107
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 755
  • Likes Given: 195
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #324 on: October 26, 2019, 03:15:40 AM »
Exactly the area around the Greenland crack as talked about in the following thread:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2839.msg232576.html#msg232576

An awesome image of the area I'm referring to, as posted by uniquorn in the above thread

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Aluminium

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 681
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 618
  • Likes Given: 371
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #325 on: October 26, 2019, 07:16:09 AM »
October 21-25.

2018.

GoSouthYoungins

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1409
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 164
  • Likes Given: 109
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #326 on: October 26, 2019, 04:24:22 PM »
Early loss of ice area inside the Arctic Basin as well as outside easily explains the accumulated heat. Check out the series of attached charts (big thanks to Tealight / Nico Sun for providing these in real time). Note the AWP calculation does not take clouds/weather into account, just solar angles and ice/water albedo.
Not surprisingly, the same areas with the highest anomalies are the same ones with relatively delayed refreeze. I expect this pattern to continue in November and December.

Spot on. The AWP matches the SST map almost perfectly. Except for one area, the Laptev bite.

The atlantification has caused the upwelling to be warmer (probably), and the ice pack mobility has allowed the ice in the area to consistently move toward the fram strait (definitely).

I expect this will last several more weeks, and in the next few years become almost a year-round feature.

A similar thing seems to be happening  in the lincoln sea, but there is just a lot more thicker ice in the area.
big time oops

Rodius

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 285
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 216
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #327 on: October 27, 2019, 02:48:29 AM »
It looks like Nares Strait has closed up.
Or does it take longer than a few days to make that call?

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3456
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 637
  • Likes Given: 325
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #328 on: October 27, 2019, 04:50:11 AM »
To see if Nares has closed, you'll need to look at least the DMI Satellite images. (Link is to "Kennedy" section - the middle part of the Strait - see at the the link links to "Kane" and "Lincoln" on the Greenland location map [and the rest of the Greenland coast]).  Looking back and forth between images with two dates (set to the same area - easy to do), you'll see in the lower Kennedy section, there is still ice movement.  In the Lincoln imagery, there isn't much right now.

If Nares freezes up this week for the winter, I think it would be unprecedentedly early in the last couple of decades.  It usually closes in the December to February period (IIRC) (and it didn't close at all in 2006-07 and 2018-19 winters).  This post in the Nares Thread gives some history of Nares' closing dates.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

blumenkraft

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4889
  • Fans of Hans Ø Club - circa 2018
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1669
  • Likes Given: 2812
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #329 on: October 27, 2019, 06:23:01 AM »
"Is a thin line 'tween heaven and here" - Bubbles

blumenkraft

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4889
  • Fans of Hans Ø Club - circa 2018
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1669
  • Likes Given: 2812
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #330 on: October 27, 2019, 06:28:04 AM »
It looks like Nares Strait has closed up.
Or does it take longer than a few days to make that call?

If Nares freezes up this week for the winter, I think it would be unprecedentedly early in the last couple of decades

I don't think an early refreeze of NS this year is too unlikely because there is no surface current at the moment.

But, tidal forces hinder the freeze as of yet.
"Is a thin line 'tween heaven and here" - Bubbles

Rodius

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 285
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 216
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #331 on: October 27, 2019, 07:29:19 AM »
The GIFs show it isn't closed.
Like the tidal movements they show.

I should have looked closer myself.... Aluminium's GIF looked like it was frozen over but it was just a lack of detail.

Thank you for GIFs

blumenkraft

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4889
  • Fans of Hans Ø Club - circa 2018
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1669
  • Likes Given: 2812
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #332 on: October 27, 2019, 08:12:54 AM »
I should have looked closer myself.... Aluminium's GIF looked like it was frozen over but it was just a lack of detail.

Yes, this GIF is showing that there is ice which is correct. It can't show details like that though.

Sometimes i'm amazed how much we can see on the satellite pics. But mostly i want more. ;)

Quote
Thank you for GIFs

Welcome, Rodius. :)
"Is a thin line 'tween heaven and here" - Bubbles

Feeltheburn

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 201
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 9
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #333 on: October 27, 2019, 08:47:41 AM »
A Polar Vortex Split is coming in about a week.
This is again, very bad news, coming earlier Year by Year.
The Oceans are just spewing out Heat, relentlessly.

Why is the release of heat a bad thing since it can now radiate back into outer space? I am confused when the complaint is that heat is being trapped in the ocean and also when heat is not being trapped. I just want consistency.
Feel The Burn!

echoughton

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 106
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 19
  • Likes Given: 65
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #334 on: October 27, 2019, 11:05:08 AM »
More like Christmas than Halloween...what with all these GIFS....ooooo

Aleph_Null

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 157
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 58
  • Likes Given: 253
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #335 on: October 27, 2019, 12:25:56 PM »
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg234504.html#msg234504

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/22 to 10/27, Forecast: 10/27 to 10/30.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]

RoxTheGeologist

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 501
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 149
  • Likes Given: 112
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #336 on: October 27, 2019, 09:53:24 PM »
A Polar Vortex Split is coming in about a week.
This is again, very bad news, coming earlier Year by Year.
The Oceans are just spewing out Heat, relentlessly.

Why is the release of heat a bad thing since it can now radiate back into outer space? I am confused when the complaint is that heat is being trapped in the ocean and also when heat is not being trapped. I just want consistency.

Yup, it's better to release that heat. I guess the worse conditions for ice formation are a good thing when the energy balance is for heat loss. It's a worrying feeling though, hoping for less ice so the Earth can lose its excess heat. The problem is that the ocean just shouldn't be that warm.

kassy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2206
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1173
  • Likes Given: 905
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #337 on: October 27, 2019, 11:36:28 PM »
A Polar Vortex Split is coming in about a week.
This is again, very bad news, coming earlier Year by Year.
The Oceans are just spewing out Heat, relentlessly.

Why is the release of heat a bad thing since it can now radiate back into outer space? I am confused when the complaint is that heat is being trapped in the ocean and also when heat is not being trapped. I just want consistency.

The problem is that the splitting is done by extra heat from the oceans from the lower latitudes at a time of the year when that should not happen.

So this is not the same as heat released from Arctic oceans.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Ice Shieldz

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 249
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 62
  • Likes Given: 56
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #338 on: October 28, 2019, 04:57:51 AM »
A Polar Vortex Split is coming in about a week.
This is again, very bad news, coming earlier Year by Year.
The Oceans are just spewing out Heat, relentlessly.
For future reference, it would be helpful to indicate if you're talking about a stratospheric or tropospheric vortex split. Also can you provide a plot and/or analysis of the forecasted split. edit oh I just saw your follow up above.  Climate change and its connections to our planet's atmospheric circulation are very complex and if we want to persuasively show a climate connection we have to use clear science and not over simplify it.
« Last Edit: October 28, 2019, 06:24:09 AM by Ice Shieldz »

Aluminium

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 681
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 618
  • Likes Given: 371
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #339 on: October 28, 2019, 07:38:46 AM »
October 23-27.

2018.

kassy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2206
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1173
  • Likes Given: 905
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #340 on: October 28, 2019, 01:27:08 PM »
Thanks for the year to year comparisons.

The two years look quite alike in refreeze. You can also see a similarity in the 2018 and 2019 lines in the extent and area thread.

The main difference seems to be the amount of ice in missing in the Beaufort so it will be interesting to see how the ice develops there this season.

I don´t think the extra ice on the Atlantic side will make much of a difference.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

pikaia

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 324
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 71
  • Likes Given: 38
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #341 on: October 29, 2019, 12:17:06 AM »
Surprisingly, the DMI Volume curve shows a rapid slowdown in the growth of ice over the last few days, in contrast to the rapid increase in area and extent. How much can we trust the DMI data?

http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/sea/CICE_curve_thick_LA_EN_20191027.png

uniquorn

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2473
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1341
  • Likes Given: 221
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #342 on: October 29, 2019, 10:45:06 AM »
today's windy ecmwf wam (waves)

seaice.de

  • New ice
  • Posts: 86
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 31
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #343 on: October 29, 2019, 12:03:30 PM »
The SMOS sea ice thickness data product has moved to AWI. The SMOS processing at Uni Hamburg has stopped. You can find the SMOS and the combined SMOS and CryoSat2 products here: ftp://ftp.awi.de/sea_ice/product/

A description can be found here https://spaces.awi.de/display/CS2SMOS

If you want to learn more about the validation and difference between the UH (now AWI) and U Bremen product have a look here http://www.seaice.de/Kaleschke_RSE_2016_final.pdf

Both SMOS data products underestimate the thickness on average by about 50-60%. However, the UH product performs better in comparison with the UB product with a reduced mean difference and RMSD.

Maplike

  • NewMembers
  • New ice
  • Posts: 2
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #344 on: October 29, 2019, 05:22:57 PM »
As someone already mentioned a few comments ago, this really doesn't look good.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/images/FullSize_CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20191028.png

Aluminium

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 681
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 618
  • Likes Given: 371
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #345 on: October 30, 2019, 06:20:16 AM »
October 25-29.

2018.

Aleph_Null

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 157
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 58
  • Likes Given: 253
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #346 on: October 30, 2019, 12:22:27 PM »
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg234855.html#msg234855

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/25 to 10/30, Forecast: 10/30 to 11/2.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]

pauldry600

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 228
    • View Profile
    • weathergossip
  • Liked: 18
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #347 on: October 31, 2019, 10:03:03 AM »
Sea Ice North of Canada appears to be receeding or do my eyes fail me?

Russian side is like someone squirting whipped cream.
If it kept at that pace the whole NH would freeze.

Pavel

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 243
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #348 on: October 31, 2019, 10:16:46 AM »
GFS suppose the heat advection to the Arctic from the Pacific side in 8-10 days and cold anomalies in America. Not reliable by now, but could be the first significant heat wave this freeze season

echoughton

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 106
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 19
  • Likes Given: 65
Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #349 on: October 31, 2019, 11:14:55 AM »
Sea Ice North of Canada appears to be receeding or do my eyes fail me?

Russian side is like someone squirting whipped cream.
If it kept at that pace the whole NH would freeze.
[/quote

You'll have to explain that technical term, please...."squirting whipped cream"
 :o :o :o :o :o]