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uniquorn

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #400 on: November 08, 2019, 01:40:49 PM »
Until the arctic ocean properties change, looking at Wipneus amsr2 regional extent charts, it would appear that there are limits to a late refreeze in the ESS and Laptev (edit: though there might be a retreat in the ESS over the next few days). Kara likely freezing earlier due to the push from the pacific side.
Polarstern temperatures further north perhaps offering some explanation.
Nonetheless, a clearish view of the pole today on worldview suggests that all is not quite rosy and SMB thickness posted here would appear to corroborate.
« Last Edit: November 08, 2019, 01:51:38 PM by uniquorn »

Eco-Author

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #401 on: November 08, 2019, 02:44:45 PM »
Could holes (polinios sp?) in the ice over winter cause extra circulation to draw up warmer water... couldn't this be what sustains some of them..  Wondering what 'shock' it might take the system to cause an El Nino like warm plum rising.  It's only a matter of time for the ice in general.  Get a Super El Nino Year mixed with maybe even two GACs and several bad years prior and....
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karl dubhe2

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #402 on: November 08, 2019, 03:30:07 PM »
Am I wrong in speculating that the faster the ice freezes this winter the faster it's likely to melt out next spring?  I think so, as such 'predicticating' is utterly without any science to back it up.   :)


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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #403 on: November 09, 2019, 07:07:11 AM »
November 4-8.

2018.

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #404 on: November 09, 2019, 09:17:29 AM »
Wow!
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #405 on: November 09, 2019, 05:31:34 PM »
Could holes (polinios sp?) in the ice over winter cause extra circulation to draw up warmer water... <snippage>
With air temperatures of -25C the leads (fractures) won't be open water for very long, though the thinner ice does show up warmer using worldview brightness temperature.

The animation below shows uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh ice concentration overlaid onto mercator (model) 0m sea temperature. (amsr2 0% concentration, normally dark blue, has been set to transparent)
oct1-nov8. It looks like a wind driven retreat in the ESS.

edit: Polarview Sentinel 1A of wave action on thin ice near the Chukchi coast today.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2019, 08:16:53 PM by uniquorn »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #406 on: November 09, 2019, 06:55:38 PM »
whoi-itp103 microcats still giving temperature and salinity data at 5m and 6m at the mouth of the amundsen gulf. (the profiler battery ran out some time ago)

edit: Internal buoy temperature and location suggesting that it may be iced in again after some time in open water.
Quote
Last buoy status on 2019/11/9 120101 UTC : temperature = -2.3125 °C, battery = 10.028 V
Last position on 2019/11/9 120101 UTC : 71.5516° N, 126.79° W
an example of trapped heat?
https://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=163356
« Last Edit: November 09, 2019, 08:16:04 PM by uniquorn »

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #407 on: November 10, 2019, 06:08:07 AM »
Rapid refreeze now underway in Hudson Bay, should sustain for the next several days at least.



I think most of Hudson and all of the major Canadian lakes will be frozen by the end of the month, while Chukchi will remain mostly open and Beaufort / Bering too, the discrepancy between the refreeze date in these regions could be the worst on record (normally it would go Chukchi -> Bering / Hudson, not the other way around, and this has big implications for winter in North America IMO, in a snowy way).

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #408 on: November 10, 2019, 07:34:11 AM »
I have spent many years lurking on this forum. Over the years I see little to give me hope that climate change will not devastate the Arctic and the planet as a whole.

I teach climate change in my classes at a community college in Southern California. In my feeble attempt to explain how these great dips of the jet stream that bring an Arctic blast to the eastern half of the USA can hurt the Arctic I use a freezer we have in the classroom. I open it up to let the cold out and ask them “When I close the door, how does the freezer make it cold again?” I tell them about condensers and heat exchangers.

 I ask them “How does the Arctic keep so cold when its freezer door is opening when the jet streams make these large dips?” My feeble answer is we have a season of dark in the Arctic that is the time when we generate all the cold in the Arctic freezer by a lack of energy input directly from the Sun. Without that energy,  some of the energy brought in during the season of light will radiate into the atmosphere and eventually into space and at some point reach a point where the energy levels have dropped enough to freeze water and form ice that seals any remaining heat energy in the waters below it. Once the waters are sealed off by the ice, energy in the air continues to loose heat energy into space and becomes ever colder. So as long as the period of dark is exporting/exchanging more heat than it imports during the season of light we will have a functioning Arctic Freezer.

When the Arctic experiences two things: 1) Importing more heat during the season of light than it had before, and 2) opening the Arctic Freezer door more often during the season of dark, the Arctic Freezer will become more and more strained until it is no longer capable of acting as a freezer.

Why I watch this forum is to try and understand the heat gain and heat loose in the Arctic.

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #409 on: November 10, 2019, 03:50:50 PM »
Last weeks Fram export.

Click to play.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #410 on: November 10, 2019, 05:29:20 PM »
Rapid refreeze now underway in Hudson Bay, should sustain for the next several days at least.

very late start but it will catch up and freeze over completely.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #411 on: November 11, 2019, 06:57:32 AM »
Am I wrong in speculating that the faster the ice freezes this winter the faster it's likely to melt out next spring?  I think so, as such 'predicticating' is utterly without any science to back it up.   :)

Not really.

The two biggest factors in how fast the ice melts are weather and snow depth.

The most ideal set up is to have very low snow cover in Spring because the Bare ice albedo is so low compared to snow the energy uptake during May can quickly change.

In the 2008-2012 period we had a couple years with almost no s no snow come May.


2011 was one and in turn the CAB almost melted out.
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #412 on: November 11, 2019, 07:06:58 AM »
November 6-10.

2018.

Aleph_Null

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #413 on: November 11, 2019, 12:42:29 PM »
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg236310.html#msg236310

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 11/6 to 11/11, Forecast: 11/11 to 11/14.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]

grixm

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #414 on: November 11, 2019, 03:30:32 PM »
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2019.png

it looks like we shall see the first autumnal fall below mean on the dmi80 chart since 2015 . b.c.

And then DMI80 is like "nah never mind":


blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #415 on: November 11, 2019, 05:14:38 PM »
LOL
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #416 on: November 12, 2019, 02:28:15 AM »
First ice now appearing on Lake Superior, I think this is exceedingly early.



I anticipate a near-complete refreeze of the Great Lakes this winter, surpassing 2018-19 and comparing to or surpassing 2013-14.

be cause

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #417 on: November 12, 2019, 02:48:01 AM »
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2019.png

it looks like we shall see the first autumnal fall below mean on the dmi80 chart since 2015 . b.c.

And then DMI80 is like "nah never mind":




24 hours later ...

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2019.png

ice getting chilled for export ? b.c.
« Last Edit: November 12, 2019, 01:34:43 PM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #418 on: November 12, 2019, 12:20:28 PM »
A gif showing the decline and fall of SST anomalies from August maximum to now.
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #419 on: November 12, 2019, 12:45:41 PM »
A Tale of 2 seas (NSIDC Sea Ice Area)

DMI North of 80 has been colder or much colder than in recent years. North of 80 is pretty much the area covered by the Central Arctic Sea - currently 31st lowest, i.e. 11th highest, in the satellite record, and nearly 200,000 km2 more than the 2010's average.

However, other parts of the Arctic have been relatively warm - e.g. the Chukchi.

The Chukchi Sea - currently lowest ( and for 151 days this year), and nearly 300,000 km2 less than the 2010s average.

The Arctic is certainly a mix of different seas.
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #420 on: November 12, 2019, 01:29:52 PM »
A comparison of nov1-11 from 2016-2019 using uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh. click to run
Late refreeze in Baffin and Foxe Basin this year, also Chukchi.
2016 was late freezing in the Kara sea.
Maybe there is more fresh water refreeze in the Greenland Sea this year?

Wipneus regional extent for Baffin from nov9
« Last Edit: November 12, 2019, 01:37:07 PM by uniquorn »

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #421 on: November 12, 2019, 05:03:19 PM »
Until recently there was only very small amounts of ice exported from Lincoln via Nares. This might have contributed to the low Baffin numbers?
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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #422 on: November 12, 2019, 05:13:28 PM »
Windy weather is expected in the Chukchi Sea.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #423 on: November 12, 2019, 07:04:25 PM »
This is a catastrophe. :(


mabarnes

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #424 on: November 12, 2019, 08:05:50 PM »
Windy weather is expected in the Chukchi Sea.

Hi - novice/lurker question here: Given the open water, high winds and high pressure, would you expect accelerated IR heat loss to space in the Chuckchi...?  Trying to prime the pump of understanding what you guys "see" ... thanks!

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #425 on: November 12, 2019, 08:11:19 PM »
This is a catastrophe. :(


No it isn't. It is impressive but it is a very early melt causing very high SST +ve anomalies followed by a very late freeze. There are those who say late freeze causes a colder sea (rapid venting of heat)  and when freeze occurs thickening can be rapid. There are those who say that late freeze means less time for ice to thicken.

The Chukchi and the Central Arctic are opposite sides of the coin.  Let's see what the 2019 season brings.

ps: But what will the Bering Sea do - how open for how long - a big influence on the Chukchi's melting season.
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Pavel

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #426 on: November 12, 2019, 08:56:38 PM »
The Chuckchi sea (and the Bering) can really start the next melt season with the record low volume (again). But it won't be a catastrophe because the CAB still have the pretty thick ice that will mostly survive the melt season.

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #427 on: November 12, 2019, 09:01:42 PM »
No it isn't. It is impressive but it is a very early melt causing very high SST +ve anomalies followed by a very late freeze. There are those who say late freeze causes a colder sea (rapid venting of heat)  and when freeze occurs thickening can be rapid. There are those who say that late freeze means less time for ice to thicken.

This means further heat accumulation in the most vulnerable place in the Arctic - the Beaufort cycle.

Previous article about this:

https://www.sciencealert.com/ticking-time-bomb-hidden-heated-ocean-water-under-arctic-canada-basin-chukchi-sea

Quote
'Ticking Time Bomb' of Heated Ocean Discovered Hidden Under The Arctic

PETER DOCKRILL30 AUG 2018




The Arctic is not in a good way. Its oldest, thickest sea ice is breaking. Strange lakes punctuate its landscape. The very chemistry of its water is changing.

Things could be about to get worse. New research has uncovered evidence of a vast reservoir of heated water building up underneath the Arctic Ocean and penetrating deep into the heart of the polar region, where it threatens to melt the ice frozen on top. And maybe a lot of it.

"We document a striking ocean warming in one of the main basins of the interior Arctic Ocean, the Canadian Basin," explains oceanographer Mary-Louise Timmermans from Yale University.

Timmermans and her team analysed temperature data on the Canada Basin taken over the last 30 years, and found that the amount of heat in the warmest part of the water had effectively doubled in the period 1987 to 2017.

The basin, which sits to the north of Alaska, is made up of mixed layers of ocean water, with cold, fresh water flowing at the surface, sitting on top of a body of warmer, saltier ocean trapped beneath it.

That dynamic has long been the case, but it's the rapidly heating conditions of the warmer reservoir below that has scientists concerned.

"Presently this heat is trapped below the surface layer," Timmermans says.

"Should it be mixed up to the surface, there is enough heat to entirely melt the sea-ice pack that covers this region for most of the year."

According to the researchers, the warmer submerged waters have been 'archiving' heat due to "anomalous solar heating" of surface waters in the northern Chukchi Sea, which feeds the Canada Basin.

Basically, as sea ice seasonally and increasingly melts in the Chukchi Sea, open water gets exposed to the heat of sunlight, warms up, and is then driven northwards by Arctic winds – a current phenomenon called the Beaufort Gyre.

As this heated water travels to the Arctic, the warmer waters then descend below the colder layer of the Canadian Basin – but the amount they've heated up in the past three decades could represent "a ticking time bomb", the researchers warn.

"That heat isn't going to go away," one of the team, oceanographer John Toole from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, told CBC.

"Eventually … it's going have to come up to the surface and it's going to impact the ice."

While the researchers don't think there's any immediate threat, strong winds mixing the colder and warmer water layers – or an increase in salinity, driving the warmer water upwards – could severely impact Arctic ice.

And even if those outcomes don't result, the temperature trajectory already seen could be affecting ice coverage more subtly, although nobody knows the exact ramifications yet.


"It remains to be seen how continued sea ice losses will fundamentally change the water column structure and dynamics," the authors explain in their paper, although they note in the coming years the excess heat "will give rise to enhanced upward heat fluxes year-round, creating compound effects on the system by slowing winter sea ice growth."

More research is needed to calculate just how serious this situation is, but there's no denying these mechanisms are all part of a much bigger problem – and one that isn't going away.

"We're seeing more and more open water as the sea ice retreats in the summertime," Timmermans told the Canadian Press.

"The Sun is warming up the ocean directly, because it's no longer covered by sea ice."

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #428 on: November 12, 2019, 10:48:00 PM »
The Chuckchi sea (and the Bering) can really start the next melt season with the record low volume (again). But it won't be a catastrophe because the CAB still have the pretty thick ice that will mostly survive the melt season.
This is wrong. The Chukchi and Bering are, IMO, directly tied to the freezing season in North America and its duration. If the Chukchi and Bering's volume remains at record lows through the freezing season and into the spring, there is a very good chance winter will not abate until May, or even June, across the most productive food-growing regions on the planet.

We already have a catastrophe unfolding after this year's late start and early finish. If 2020 repeats the same pattern (or worse) there will be major shocks to food prices beyond what is already likely in the pipeline due to this year's harvest.

If the CAB has ice when people start to starve, BOE will be trivial at that point. The impacts are already well underway due to certain regions becoming increasingly ice-free, and we may not even need an ice-free CAB to see catastrophe unfold in the form of spiraling food prices.

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #429 on: November 12, 2019, 11:25:17 PM »
The Chuckchi sea (and the Bering) can really start the next melt season with the record low volume (again). But it won't be a catastrophe because the CAB still have the pretty thick ice that will mostly survive the melt season.
This is wrong. The Chukchi and Bering are, IMO, directly tied to the freezing season in North America and its duration. If the Chukchi and Bering's volume remains at record lows through the freezing season and into the spring, there is a very good chance winter will not abate until May, or even June, across the most productive food-growing regions on the planet.

We already have a catastrophe unfolding after this year's late start and early finish. If 2020 repeats the same pattern (or worse) there will be major shocks to food prices beyond what is already likely in the pipeline due to this year's harvest.

If the CAB has ice when people start to starve, BOE will be trivial at that point. The impacts are already well underway due to certain regions becoming increasingly ice-free, and we may not even need an ice-free CAB to see catastrophe unfold in the form of spiraling food prices.

Thus years harvest was not a catastrophe.  Corn production is only down about 9% from last year, and still above 2015 levels.  Wheat production was up 4% over 2018.  Food prices are down significantly from the spring scare, which caused more hype than harm.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #430 on: November 12, 2019, 11:42:50 PM »
The Chuckchi sea (and the Bering) can really start the next melt season with the record low volume (again). But it won't be a catastrophe because the CAB still have the pretty thick ice that will mostly survive the melt season.
This is wrong. The Chukchi and Bering are, IMO, directly tied to the freezing season in North America and its duration. If the Chukchi and Bering's volume remains at record lows through the freezing season and into the spring, there is a very good chance winter will not abate until May, or even June, across the most productive food-growing regions on the planet.

We already have a catastrophe unfolding after this year's late start and early finish. If 2020 repeats the same pattern (or worse) there will be major shocks to food prices beyond what is already likely in the pipeline due to this year's harvest.

If the CAB has ice when people start to starve, BOE will be trivial at that point. The impacts are already well underway due to certain regions becoming increasingly ice-free, and we may not even need an ice-free CAB to see catastrophe unfold in the form of spiraling food prices.

Thus years harvest was not a catastrophe.  Corn production is only down about 9% from last year, and still above 2015 levels.  Wheat production was up 4% over 2018.  Food prices are down significantly from the spring scare, which caused more hype than harm.
It was a catastrophe, the data is still processing. There are more crops than corn. We obviously have redundancies but if the weather next year is worse than this one, the impacts will IMO be severe.

https://twitter.com/usda_oce/status/1182694890943275008

We are also free to disagree! :)

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #431 on: November 13, 2019, 01:05:46 AM »
Re Timmerman's article on heat accumulation in the Beaufort Aug 2018, here is link to some of discussion about this on ASIF.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,596.msg170363.html#msg170363

Aluminium

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #432 on: November 13, 2019, 06:44:32 AM »
November 8-12.

2018.

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #433 on: November 13, 2019, 07:49:54 AM »
The Chuckchi sea (and the Bering) can really start the next melt season with the record low volume (again). But it won't be a catastrophe because the CAB still have the pretty thick ice that will mostly survive the melt season.
This is wrong. The Chukchi and Bering are, IMO, directly tied to the freezing season in North America and its duration. If the Chukchi and Bering's volume remains at record lows through the freezing season and into the spring, there is a very good chance winter will not abate until May, or even June, across the most productive food-growing regions on the planet.

Well, let's test this theory. 2016,17,18 autumn ice cover was very low in the Chukchi/Bering region. So I decided to see how that changed next spring's (so: 2017,18,19) temperatures vs the baseline of 1950-80. This should see serious cold in the NA region if the theory was true. This is what I found (see below)
 April is really a bit colder than the "good ol' days" but May is not at all. Neither June.

There is some merit to this theory, as there seems to be some displacement of the Arctic cold pole into the Hudson region but I think it is exagarrated very much. Anyway, we shall see what this spring brings. I am open to new ideas and like this theory but do not find strong support for it in the data (yet?)

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #434 on: November 13, 2019, 09:44:54 AM »
November 8-12.

2018.

Is it possible to change the crop of the animation? I'd be interested in seeing Hudson and Baffin bay etc in the coming weeks


oren

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #436 on: November 13, 2019, 01:24:20 PM »
It is, but Aluminium prefers not to, I think it might be a filesize issue.
I think it's mostly a usability trade-off issue between too much cropping and too much zooming out, where I think Aluminium hit the sweet spot. And it's also a backward compatibility issue with his previous animations as he's been making these for over a year now using the same cropping template.
The downside is that at the end of the freezing season (Jan, Feb) all the action is in the far peripheral seas and the animation becomes less useful. That is the time of year when Aluminium decreases the publishing rate to once a week, IIRC.
I will take the opportunity to again thank Aluminium for this important service to the community.

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #437 on: November 13, 2019, 02:02:46 PM »
It is, but Aluminium prefers not to, I think it might be a filesize issue.
I think it's mostly a usability trade-off issue between too much cropping and too much zooming out, where I think Aluminium hit the sweet spot. And it's also a backward compatibility issue with his previous animations as he's been making these for over a year now using the same cropping template.
The downside is that at the end of the freezing season (Jan, Feb) all the action is in the far peripheral seas and the animation becomes less useful. That is the time of year when Aluminium decreases the publishing rate to once a week, IIRC.
I will take the opportunity to again thank Aluminium for this important service to the community.

Seconded on that, your figures are always appreciated Aluminium

Feeltheburn

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #438 on: November 14, 2019, 06:47:48 AM »
Am I wrong in speculating that the faster the ice freezes this winter the faster it's likely to melt out next spring?  I think so, as such 'predicticating' is utterly without any science to back it up.   :)

You are right! Your thoughts are in line with several similar statements over the past few years. However, this year saw the slowest refreeze in history as the extent dropped below 2012 and every other year even after being higher than several years back in the spring and summer.

So, if the hypothesis is correct, ice might melt more slowly this coming spring.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #439 on: November 14, 2019, 07:46:13 AM »
I've been away for a few days and man, what an unbalanced refreeze.

That said, the lack of refreeze in the Chukchi and Bering I find very disturbing.  To a lesser degree I'm concerned about the Hudson and Baffin.

But the lack of ice in the Chukchi and Bering speak very strongly to what will happen next spring on the Pacific side.
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johnm33

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #440 on: November 14, 2019, 09:48:58 AM »
« Last Edit: November 14, 2019, 02:28:12 PM by johnm33 »

Archimid

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #441 on: November 14, 2019, 12:11:56 PM »
Quote
But the lack of ice in the Chukchi and Bering speak very strongly to what will happen next spring on the Pacific side.

There is some multiyear ice in the Beaufort sea. Maybe, once the gyre gets going, that thick ice moves somewhere in between the Chukchi and the central sea, protecting the central sea from early insolation.
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Aleph_Null

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #442 on: November 14, 2019, 12:34:56 PM »
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg236697.html#msg236697

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 11/9 to 11/14, Forecast: 11/14 to 11/17.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]

colchonero

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #443 on: November 14, 2019, 01:29:53 PM »
I hope the current forecast holds, so we can get decent ice formation. In the first couple of days, we have very cold Hudson Bay region, with favorable winds from the northwest, then Chukchi should get going (finally!) with cold weather + wind from the north, and most importantly it looks like the cold could stay there and in the basin as a whole, for a while at least. Kara could close too, but we'll see.

We'll see if SST in Chukchi is still too high to freeze, even with favorable conditions, I hope not.

colchonero

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #444 on: November 14, 2019, 07:13:12 PM »
GFS and GEM wind forecast  for today. Look at Chukchi. This shouldn't even be a forecast, it is for today and the time "forecasted" is just 1h after the publication of those runs. And yet there couldn't be more of a difference in wind, direction-wise. Canadians (I know it's them that are wrong, because I looked at all other models, and they are in line with GFS), really have to fix their "wind bug". It is similar to JMA (Japanese model) forecasting 1080-1085hPa over Greenland every other run, when we have high pressure over that region.

GFS


GEM



Edit: I looked into it right now, it happens only on their NH map, when you click on North America or Europe, it works fine. I mean on N hemi it is forecasting northern winds in the Pacific near Alaska-Canada border, but on just North American map, it has southern winds which is obviously correct, since it is really basic meteorology knowledge, that if there is a cyclone, there will be southern or SW winds on its warmer front side and northern winds o its backside. Because cyclones spin counterclockwise on NH, that means if the cyclone is located west of certain location it will get southern winds, and "warmer" air, and if it is located east, that location will get northern colder winds.

GEM NH


GEM NA

« Last Edit: November 14, 2019, 07:22:12 PM by colchonero »

Aluminium

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #445 on: November 15, 2019, 07:02:05 AM »
November 10-14.

2018.

grixm

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #446 on: November 15, 2019, 08:13:54 AM »
November 10-14.


Is the ESS ice near the shore being melted, or just pushed away by wind?

Darvince

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #447 on: November 15, 2019, 09:43:11 AM »
I would think that it should be wind-driven movement; temperatures there appear to be moderately below freezing on models, and the weather station at Pevek verifies this:

https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=25051&lang=en&decoded=yes&ndays=2&ano=2019&mes=11&day=15&hora=06

SimonF92

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #448 on: November 15, 2019, 09:43:16 AM »
November 10-14.


Is the ESS ice near the shore being melted, or just pushed away by wind?

It looks like the ice follows the predominant wind pattern over the same period, my money would be on wind

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #449 on: November 15, 2019, 02:12:55 PM »
November 10-14.


Is the ESS ice near the shore being melted, or just pushed away by wind?

It looks like the ice follows the predominant wind pattern over the same period, my money would be on wind
SimonF92, I think your money is safe.

http://osisaf.met.no/p/osisaf_hlprod_qlook.php?year=2019&month=11&day=14&prod=LR-Drift&area=NH&size=100%25
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