Author Topic: The 2019/2020 freezing season (Read 265342 times)

blumenkraft · « **Reply #450 on:** November 15, 2019, 07:13:24 PM »

Looks like Fram export could stall.

uniquorn · « **Reply #451 on:** November 15, 2019, 07:20:11 PM »

Quote from: blumenkraft on November 15, 2019, 07:13:24 PM

Looks like Fram export could stall.

..increasing the chances of itp116 making it to the Nares

AWI CS2SMOS merged thickness from .nc using panoply, nov1-12
png files are also available here

blumenkraft · « **Reply #452 on:** November 15, 2019, 07:20:32 PM »

blumenkraft · « **Reply #453 on:** November 16, 2019, 12:04:04 PM »

Quote from: uniquorn on November 15, 2019, 07:20:11 PM

..increasing the chances of itp116 making it to the Nares

#hellyeah!

In other related news, we have a liftoff.

blumenkraft · « **Reply #454 on:** November 16, 2019, 04:41:57 PM »

Quote from: blumenkraft on November 15, 2019, 07:13:24 PM

Looks like Fram export could stall.

More a reversal than a stalling.

pleun · « **Reply #455 on:** November 16, 2019, 08:46:17 PM »

Big spike up on the dmi north of 80 graph!

HapHazard · « **Reply #456 on:** November 16, 2019, 10:45:08 PM »

Quote from: pleun on November 16, 2019, 08:46:17 PM

Big spike up on the dmi north of 80 graph!

lol damn you weren't kidding

Aluminium · « **Reply #457 on:** November 16, 2019, 11:08:28 PM »

In 2016 the real spike started from the latest value.

uniquorn · « **Reply #458 on:** November 16, 2019, 11:46:21 PM »

Polarstern temperatures

blumenkraft · « **Reply #459 on:** November 17, 2019, 06:32:51 AM »

Aluminium · « **Reply #460 on:** November 17, 2019, 08:18:43 AM »

November 12-16.

2018.

blumenkraft · « **Reply #461 on:** November 17, 2019, 09:16:22 AM »

Ice drift from 08.11. to today.

Aleph_Null · « **Reply #462 on:** November 17, 2019, 01:08:07 PM »

Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg237055.html#msg237055

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 11/12 to 11/17, Forecast: 11/17 to 11/20.
AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]

uniquorn · « **Reply #463 on:** November 17, 2019, 01:37:47 PM »

Polarview image of ESS west of Wrangel Island yesterday. Maybe some melt with the wind driven retreat.

ArcticMelt2 · « **Reply #464 on:** November 17, 2019, 08:13:56 PM »

Quote

The northern Chukchi Sea is finally starting to freeze, but #seaice extent from @NSIDC remains by far the lowest of record this late in the season. Ice also forming near land on the Alaska side of Bering Sea but extent is half of average.

https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

Eco-Author · « **Reply #465 on:** November 18, 2019, 07:24:14 AM »

So Chukchi is almost a month behind... combined with record low mid year this could be one of the most obvious lengthening of the season indicators we have. Chukchi will freeze over but will it fluctuate along with Bering?? The collapse we are seeing is not necessarily record lows or highs, but mid year.. and quick declines right after max. ESS often develops those cracks something I didn't see a lot of in '18. Antarctica is well below the line pulling numbers down too.

meddoc · « **Reply #466 on:** November 18, 2019, 02:28:55 PM »

Wondering if recent spike in dmi will elevate the whole System to a higher Baseline, just like after 2015 december spike. Remarkably, now a full 1,5 month earlier did this spike occur.

Aluminium · « **Reply #467 on:** November 19, 2019, 07:32:32 AM »

November 14-18.

2018.

gerontocrat · « **Reply #468 on:** November 19, 2019, 01:02:13 PM »

I've got a feeling that over the next few days it is goodbye to the Chukchi Big Bite.

Nullschool wind @ 22 Nov attached.

Aleph_Null · « **Reply #469 on:** November 20, 2019, 12:40:27 PM »

Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg237551.html#msg237551

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 11/15 to 11/20, Forecast: 11/20 to 11/23.
AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]

gerontocrat · « **Reply #470 on:** November 20, 2019, 12:41:57 PM »

Updated gif on SST anomalies from August max to Nov 19, from http://ocean.dmi.dk/satellite/index.uk.php

Plays 4 times then stops.

El Cid · « **Reply #471 on:** November 21, 2019, 08:03:15 AM »

Quote from: gerontocrat on November 19, 2019, 01:02:13 PM

I've got a feeling that over the next few days it is goodbye to the Chukchi Big Bite.

2017 had about the same size of "bite". it only closed by the middle of December, and SST as somewhat higher now

blumenkraft · « **Reply #472 on:** November 21, 2019, 05:29:18 PM »

oren · « **Reply #473 on:** November 21, 2019, 05:35:11 PM »

Quote from: Phil. on November 21, 2019, 05:02:44 PM

Quote from: Niall Dollard on November 21, 2019, 01:00:17 AM
Recent tweet from Rick Thoman has pointed out that Bering sea ice extent has kicked off and reached the 50,000km2 mark. (NSIDC data)
Earliest date it has reached this level since 2012.

It's only though in the shallow sounds and bays and will still be vulnerable to destructive swells and wind.

Although if you look at the higher resolution Uni-Bremen there is not as much ice in those bays.

Response to a discussion in the data thread. UH animation, 2016 to 2019. Click to start.
2019 initial Bering refreeze is indeed earlier.

SimonF92 · « **Reply #474 on:** November 21, 2019, 06:32:54 PM »

Quote from: oren on November 21, 2019, 05:35:11 PM

Quote from: Phil. on November 21, 2019, 05:02:44 PM
Quote from: Niall Dollard on November 21, 2019, 01:00:17 AM
Recent tweet from Rick Thoman has pointed out that Bering sea ice extent has kicked off and reached the 50,000km2 mark. (NSIDC data)
Earliest date it has reached this level since 2012.

It's only though in the shallow sounds and bays and will still be vulnerable to destructive swells and wind.

Although if you look at the higher resolution Uni-Bremen there is not as much ice in those bays.

Response to a discussion in the data thread. UH animation, 2016 to 2019. Click to start.
2019 initial Bering refreeze is indeed earlier.

There has been a pretty constant northerly wind on that area for about a week now.

That looks set to change within a few days to south-westerlies. I'm guessing the change in winds will be pretty negatively impactful for the ice thats forming there.

I tried to make a nullschool gif but it was simply horrible, you can see for yourself here;

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2019/11/25/1800Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-198.75,68.91,1093

gerontocrat · « **Reply #475 on:** November 21, 2019, 07:10:23 PM »

Quote from: SimonF92 on November 21, 2019, 06:32:54 PM

Quote from: oren on November 21, 2019, 05:35:11 PM
Quote from: Phil. on November 21, 2019, 05:02:44 PM
Quote from: Niall Dollard on November 21, 2019, 01:00:17 AM
Recent tweet from Rick Thoman has pointed out that Bering sea ice extent has kicked off and reached the 50,000km2 mark. (NSIDC data)
Earliest date it has reached this level since 2012.

It's only though in the shallow sounds and bays and will still be vulnerable to destructive swells and wind.

Although if you look at the higher resolution Uni-Bremen there is not as much ice in those bays.

Response to a discussion in the data thread. UH animation, 2016 to 2019. Click to start.
2019 initial Bering refreeze is indeed earlier.

There has been a pretty constant northerly wind on that area for about a week now.

That looks set to change within a few days to south-westerlies. I'm guessing the change in winds will be pretty negatively impactful for the ice thats forming there.

I tried to make a nullschool gif but it was simply horrible, you can see for yourself here;

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2019/11/25/1800Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-198.75,68.91,1093

You beat me to it. But my image is just a png for all the Arctic as at 24 Nov. . As you say, and nullschool says, the switch to winds from the SW seems due on about the 25th. But 3-4 days of those winds and the Chukchi big bite will be a teensy-weensy bite ?

I chose all the Arctic to look at those 30km winds blowing up the Polar-Stern's behind, and the quite impressive wind that's a Norther heading South on East Greenland, turning the corner into a Southerly up the Baffin.

With all this thin and broken up ice around, maybe temperatures are taking a back seat when some real winds turn up.

Aluminium · « **Reply #476 on:** November 22, 2019, 09:47:40 AM »

November 16-21.

2018.

gerontocrat · « **Reply #477 on:** November 22, 2019, 05:43:56 PM »

Chukchi Freeze

Quote from: SimonF92 on November 21, 2019, 06:32:54 PM

There has been a pretty constant northerly wind on that area for about a week now.

That looks set to change within a few days to south-westerlies. I'm guessing the change in winds will be pretty negatively impactful for the ice thats forming there.

NullSchool has changed its mind ? By the 27th strong winds aimed at the Bering Strait from the Beaufort return?

click gif to play - plays 3 times & stops.

blumenkraft · « **Reply #478 on:** November 22, 2019, 06:30:30 PM »

Quote from: gerontocrat on November 22, 2019, 05:43:56 PM

NullSchool has changed its mind?

Last weeks forecast for this week in Nares turned out to be wrong either. They forecasted calmness but it was windy. This was ECMWF though, Nullschool is GFS.

Aleph_Null · « **Reply #479 on:** November 23, 2019, 01:22:59 PM »

Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg238024.html#msg238024

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 11/18 to 11/23, Forecast: 11/23 to 11/26.
AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]

blumenkraft · « **Reply #480 on:** November 23, 2019, 01:38:27 PM »

Fram (non)export

uniquorn · « **Reply #481 on:** November 23, 2019, 10:00:16 PM »

Comparison of nov22, 2016-2019 using unihamburg amsr2uhh.
That chukchi little bit bigger bite would seem to be getting more resilient as the years go by. As noted already, some welcome early ice in the Bering.

blumenkraft · « **Reply #482 on:** November 24, 2019, 07:27:21 PM »

Last weeks ice drift.

Aluminium · « **Reply #483 on:** November 25, 2019, 07:43:01 AM »

November 19-24.

2018.

johnm33 · « **Reply #484 on:** November 25, 2019, 11:35:46 AM »

I was wondering about the effect of bathymetry on melt so looking at the sss anim. at hycom and the similarity the spreading lower salinity has to the shape of Lomonosov, 1km below and 10s of Kms away. Then noticed that one of the livelier areas is more or less where P.S. is

uniquorn · « **Reply #485 on:** November 25, 2019, 02:02:22 PM »

<effect of bathymetry on melt>
worldview brightness temperature image of the saline water north of Svalbard sinking and/or mixing. This persistent lower concentration ice area is getting easier to spot as the export ice gets thinner. Click for full res. https://go.nasa.gov/2DbiRCm

Maybe the extra buoy data from PS and mosaic are already improving the models in that area.

Aleph_Null · « **Reply #486 on:** November 26, 2019, 12:28:05 PM »

Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg238478.html#msg238478

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 11/21 to 11/26, Forecast: 11/26 to 11/29.
AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]

uniquorn · « **Reply #487 on:** November 26, 2019, 01:57:33 PM »

That wind over the chukchi is almost certain to be mixing the relatively shallow water there. Whether that raises the SST or increases heat loss I'm not sure, but for a while, with air temps of ~-2C, probably not so much heat loss yet.
edit: unless it's the heat loss keeping the air temps higher

uniquorn · « **Reply #488 on:** November 27, 2019, 10:04:48 PM »

uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh overlaid onto mercator temperature 0m at 80% transparent. amsr2 0% concentration, normally dark blue, has been set to fully transparent. Chukchi, Nov1-26

Aluminium · « **Reply #489 on:** November 28, 2019, 08:15:50 AM »

November 22-27.

2018.

Aleph_Null · « **Reply #490 on:** November 29, 2019, 12:25:31 PM »

Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg238837.html#msg238837

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 11/24 to 11/29, Forecast: 11/29 to 12/2.
AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]

uniquorn · « **Reply #491 on:** November 30, 2019, 03:32:43 PM »

Here using mercator (model) ~~salinity~~temperature at 34m to show currents at 34m that may help to explain the resilience of the extended Chukchi bite. Sep21-nov29. Turbulence along the edge of the chukchi plateau is likely to increase mixing of shallow water.

blumenkraft · « **Reply #492 on:** November 30, 2019, 06:20:22 PM »

Air temperature anomalies, 7-day hindsight mean.

uniquorn · « **Reply #493 on:** November 30, 2019, 08:50:34 PM »

Barents and Greenland seas pushing towards previous recent upper limits, Chukchi and Baffin finding new lows.
Wipneus regional extent for nov28. https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional

El Cid · « **Reply #494 on:** December 01, 2019, 08:01:45 AM »

Major stratospheric warming under way(starting today-tomorrow and getting stronger every day)! This will probably have all kinds of consequences for NH midlatitude weather and Arctic weather as well. Pic of T+10 days as an example. (no polar vortex split seen in the forecasts yet)

meddoc · « **Reply #495 on:** December 01, 2019, 08:34:10 AM »

Quote from: El Cid on December 01, 2019, 08:01:45 AM

Major stratospheric warming under way(starting today-tomorrow and getting stronger every day)! This will probably have all kinds of consequences for NH midlatitude weather and Arctic weather as well. Pic of T+10 days as an example. (no polar vortex split seen in the forecasts yet)

10 mb level tropospheric Vortex is already going bonkers, split into 2, with a pathological System spinning in opposite Direction, centered over the Bering.

Iain · « **Reply #496 on:** December 01, 2019, 08:42:58 AM »

Ah, Now I get it.

A brief explainer on what a SSW is and possible effects:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/20992173

charles_oil · « **Reply #497 on:** December 01, 2019, 10:34:02 AM »

Thanks Iain - somehow it would be more convincing if the map was a bit more credible and the spinning disk of tea was a bit better placed / scaled - it looks way out in space to me!
$:-\$

ArcticMelt2 · « **Reply #498 on:** December 01, 2019, 09:46:15 PM »

Quote

The rapid Chukchi Sea ice extent increase has abruptly stopped due to change in winds; November ends with lowest #seaice extent of record in @NSIDC data. Bering Sea extent better but is still less than half of average for Nov 30. #akwx #Arctic @Climatologist49 @ZLabe @seaice_de

Quote

Autumn 2019 at Utqiaġvik easily the warmest of the past 99 years due to no sea ice & record high nearshore #ssts. Avg temp 28.8F (-1.8C), previous warmest 2016. Trend of 10F (5.6C) since early '90s is stunning. #akwx #Arctic

https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

uniquorn · « **Reply #499 on:** December 01, 2019, 10:34:14 PM »

Baffin perhaps missing some MYI intake, or maybe it's just weather. Either way, quite a step change into new territory.

News:

Author Topic: The 2019/2020 freezing season (Read 265342 times)

blumenkraft

blumenkraft

blumenkraft

blumenkraft

blumenkraft

blumenkraft

blumenkraft

blumenkraft

blumenkraft

blumenkraft

johnm33

blumenkraft