The 2019/2020 freezing season

[Iain]

@charles_oil

LoL, yes, it is set at a level Joe Public would be able to follow.

The BBC charter includes a commitment to  " ...inform, educate..."

E.G the recent nature programmes highlighting plastic waste in the seas being ingested by marine life .

Significantly, many more of the public now realise their small action has a consequence.

< I'm drifting OT, last post on this >

[Aluminium]

November 25 - December 1.

2018.

[SimonF92]

The rapid Chukchi Sea ice extent increase has abruptly stopped due to change in winds; November ends with lowest #seaice extent of record in @NSIDC data. Bering Sea extent better but is still less than half of average for Nov 30. #akwx #Arctic @Climatologist49 @ZLabe @seaice_de

Autumn 2019 at Utqiaġvik easily the warmest of the past 99 years due to no sea ice & record high nearshore #ssts. Avg temp 28.8F (-1.8C), previous warmest 2016. Trend of 10F (5.6C) since early '90s is stunning. #akwx #Arctic

https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

Rules for fitting a linear regression;

Constant variance
Linear
Independence
Normal distribution
Error free sampling of residuals

Makes me cringe seeing important data like that, represented like that.

[Aleph_Null]

Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg239150.html#msg239150

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 11/27 to 12/2, Forecast: 12/2 to 12/5.
AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]

[blumenkraft]

Whoops, i forgot to post the Fram export via SAR yesterday.

Here is from 24.11 to 02.12. - including some bitchy flight paths.

And the wind forecast for Thursday.

[Tor Bejnar]

Last year (Oct 2018 to May 2019)  a transpolar drift moved North Pole ice toward Fram Strait and ESS ice toward the NP. (See May 2019 post [with GIF] by A-Team in the Test thread)  This year, Mosaic is dancing around not going anywhere, it seems (so far).  This may be good for the ice, even as it gets chopped up and pushed together due to weather. 

The more ridges there are, the more snow stays on the surface (in drifts), unless all the snow gets blown into leads.   Hmmm.

[Pavel]

A 946 hPa cyclone is going to set up in the northern Atlantic. Won't affect the ice pack directly but will boost the Fram export

[ArcticMelt2]

The Pacific side is in line with 2017.



But according to the average annual values, 2019 is unprecedented.



The Pacific side of the record is weakened. It could be terrible for the 2020 melting season.

[blumenkraft]

Arctic Resurrection Lows; Passing the Baffin Bay Cyclone cemetery once again.

Link >> https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/11/arctic-resurrection-lows-passing-baffin.html

[Aleph_Null]

Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg239603.html#msg239603

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 11/30 to 12/5, Forecast: 12/5 to 12/8.
AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]

[Aluminium]

November 29 - December 6.

2018.

[Aleph_Null]

Full-size version available, with synchronized comparison {2019, 2018, 2017, 2016}, in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg239938.html#msg239938

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
November 2019 review.
AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]

[Aleph_Null]

Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg239968.html#msg239968

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 12/3 to 12/8, Forecast: 12/8 to 12/11.
AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]

[blumenkraft]

7-day hindsight mean Arctic temperature anomalies.

[blumenkraft]

Last weeks Fram export

[uniquorn]

uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh overlaid onto mercator salinity 34m at 60% transparent. amsr2 0% concentration, normally dark blue, has been set to fully transparent. Chukchi, sep21-dec9.

[philopek]

The guy obviously likes to contribute to AGW, just wondering how much heat escapes through that door as compared to if it were closed.

[Rodius]

The guy obviously likes to contribute to AGW, just wondering how much heat escapes through that door as compared to if it were closed.

I am going to go there one day and talk to the owner and inform them they are world famous on this forum.

[Shared Humanity]

The guy obviously likes to contribute to AGW, just wondering how much heat escapes through that door as compared to if it were closed.

I am going to go there one day and talk to the owner and inform them they are world famous on this forum.

Somebody here explained why the door is left open in the winter. I think it had to do with snow covered, icy outerwear which they peel off on the porch and leave hanging in the cold. If the porch were heated, the snow and ice would melt, soaking the outerwear and making it unusable the next time out.

[philopek]

The guy obviously likes to contribute to AGW, just wondering how much heat escapes through that door as compared to if it were closed.

I am going to go there one day and talk to the owner and inform them they are world famous on this forum.

Somebody here explained why the door is left open in the winter. I think it had to do with snow covered, icy outerwear which they peel off on the porch and leave hanging in the cold. If the porch were heated, the snow and ice would melt, soaking the outerwear and making it unusable the next time out.

thank you for the information.

While i'm fully aware that the porch is not heated I thought that if the door were closed, it would perhaps  be between -10 to -20C instead of -25 to -35C and that would suffice to keep the clothing frozen as well as to contribute to less energy consumption in the bordering heated rooms.

In my understanding those porches are used in many places to build a buffer between the windy really cold nature and the heated part of a house.

nevertheless at least there seems to be a reason, only question that remains is whether they ever considered a more "modern" solution that takes our current problems into account or whether i just don't have enough insight and that it's really necessary.

In that case i'd basically propose to go without door entirely and ask why only one house has the porch door open while any other house far north i've ever seen has all doors closed.

Not really important perhaps but nevertheless interesting to know and i've always been a curious person

[VeliAlbertKallio]

Arctic Sea Ice forms a formidable barrier for oxygen to penetrate into the ocean, but also does help the ocean to retain more of its existing oxygen in summers as the melting ice keeps water below ice cooler - so that more oxygen can remain dissolved within the water. This topic has come up at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)'s annual roadshow UN Conference of Parties 25 (COP25) currently meeting in Madrid, Spain. However, at first, there is also a passage of a very sad news item - which I must pass first :

IN MEMORIAM: DR MATTI K. LAPPALAINEN

Dr. Matti K. Lappalainen, Councellor of the State of Finland on Environment ('Ymparistoneuvos'), the world's foremost expert in large water body oxygenation (oceans, seas, the Amazon river etc) has died in a research-related accident. As a Vice-President, Environmental Affairs at Sea Research Society, I was often doing projects with him and he was my co-author on research on mitigation of the Amazon ecosystems for the changing climate which we presented at the World Water Week, Stockholm, August 2007. More recently Matti worked to oxygenate the Baltic Sea. In Tammisaari, Finland he rehabilitated 28km2 pilot plot and another anoxic sea area near Stockholm, Sweden of slightly smaller size. Future plans held for oxygenation of anoxic sea area east of Gotland, Sweden and in various other locations around the Baltic Sea. Before Dr Lappalainen, no one had ever attempted or succeeded in recovering anoxic seas and oceans by the breakthrough Mixox technology. He also made dissertation of his work for the University of Oulu. The world has lost one of its greatest minds and unique expert who is near impossible to replace.

https://www.academia.edu/4299120/Kallio_Veli_A._and_Lappalainen_M._Preparing_the_Amazon_Ecosystems_for_the_Changing_Climate_pp._240-241
(PDF) Kallio, Veli A. & Lappalainen, M.: Preparing the Amazon Ecosystems for the Changing Climate, pp. 240-241. | Veli Albert Kallio - Academia.edu

The issue is absolutely important, the United Nations Conference of Parties 25 is just debating on the matter: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=501&v=s-C9RfKdiow&feature=emb_logo

Prof Dan Daffoley - IUCN Deoxygenation of Oceans - YouTube
"We are now seeing increasingly low levels of dissolved oxygen across large areas of the open ocean. This is perhaps the ultimate wake-up call" https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=501&v=s-C9RfKdiow&feature=emb_logo

The most recent research and PhD dissertation of Matti Lappalainen1,2 (268 pages)
1University of Oulu Graduate School
2University of Oulu, Faculty of Technology, Environmental Engineering

The dissertation was publicly defended at the East Finland University in Kuopio on large water body oxygenation (in this case the Baltic Sea) and analysis of the problem (with the Baltic Sea's anoxic situation) is downloadable here as electronic version:

http://urn.fi/urn:isbn:9789526219417
http://jultika.oulu.fi/Record/isbn978-952-62-1941-7   
http://jultika.oulu.fi/files/isbn9789526219417.pdf

Lappalainen, K. Matti, A renewed diagnosis and paradigm for eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. University of Oulu Graduate School; University of Oulu, Faculty of Technology

Veli Albert Kallio, FRGS
Vice-President, Sea Research Society
Environmental Affairs Department
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_Research_Society

https://exploresrs.academia.edu/VeliKallio
Veli Albert Kallio | Sea Research Society - Academia.edu

[Aleph_Null]

Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg240321.html#msg240321

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 12/6 to 12/11, Forecast: 12/11 to 12/14.
AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]

[philopek]

The guy obviously likes to contribute to AGW, just wondering how much heat escapes through that door as compared to if it were closed.

I am going to go there one day and talk to the owner and inform them they are world famous on this forum.

Perhaps the owner is already with us

[gerontocrat]

SST anomalies from Aug 6 to Dec 10

plays 3 times then stops.

[Aluminium]

December 4-11.

2018.

[blumenkraft]

Aluminium, congrats on 444 posts! \o/

[Aluminium]

Thanks. Is not too far before 65536.

[uniquorn]

Comparison of the pacific side using unihamburg amsr2-uhh, dec12, 2013-2019

[Aleph_Null]

Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg240683.html#msg240683

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 12/9 to 12/14, Forecast: 12/14 to 12/17.
AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]

[uniquorn]

Mackenzie Bay losing some recently fast ice over the last few days. Refreeze in parts of the Beaufort struggling to keep up with mobility for now.
https://go.nasa.gov/2PLJDHm  dec6-14   ctr

[blumenkraft]

Ice drift 08. to 14.

[blumenkraft]

7-day hindsight mean anomalies.

[blumenkraft]

Fram export via SAR

[ArcticMelt2]

This year there is a snowless winter in Eastern Europe. This is very similar to the situation in December 2006. Interestingly, we can expect a repeat of the summer of 2007 in the Arctic?

[ArcticMelt2]

Interestingly, a similar snow anomaly in Eastern Europe in the 21st century was observed three more times on a smaller scale. In December 2000, 2008 and 2011.

[ArcticMelt2]

https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

Chukchi Sea #seaice extent in @NSIDC data is 2nd lowest of record for Dec 14, behind only 2007. Bering Sea ice extent is 3rd lowest in 42 year satellite era. Cold weather later this week will help thicken existing ice & promote new ice development. #akwx #Arctic @Climatologist49

[ArcticMelt2]

https://twitter.com/zlabe

Recent weather conditions have pushed the extent of #Arctic sea ice in the Bering-Chukchi Seas back to the 2nd lowest on record. Data from @NSIDC.

The record low sea ice cover this year has directly impacted many Alaskan coastal communities.

[SimonF92]

It doesn't really look like the situation in Europe will be changing any time soon either.

Personally im not convinced that there are enough residuals to draw a correlation between European snow cover and Arctic ice. You may be onto something though- so why not try?

Last year I plotted UK June rainfall against September minimum and nearly got a significant correlation.

More importantly however it DOES look like the Chukchi is finally going to get cold.

[SimonF92]

Heres an mp4 of that temperature change.

Its limited to 10fps for those with low bandwidth

[Archimid]

Watching that animation all I can think of is that the solstice is the 21st of December.

[gerontocrat]

Watching that animation all I can think of is that the solstice is the 21st of December.

Nope...
Solstice 2019 will be at 04:19 on
Sunday, 22 December
All times are in United Kingdom Time. (UTC)

Late at night on the 21st in the USA, but that don't matter.

[Archimid]

Is that the true reason behind Brexit?

[gerontocrat]

Is that the true reason behind Brexit?

Yep. Little Xenophobic Englanders rule, OK?

[Human Habitat Index]

Is that the true reason behind Brexit?

Yep. Little Xenophobic Englanders rule, OK?

Coincidence there was a terror event during the election campaign.

[Archimid]

And now all I can think of is this:

[Aluminium]

December 9-16.

2018.

[Aleph_Null]

Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg241042.html#msg241042

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 12/12 to 12/17, Forecast: 12/17 to 12/20.
AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]

[Phil.]

Watching that animation all I can think of is that the solstice is the 21st of December.

Nope...
Solstice 2019 will be at 04:19 on
Sunday, 22 December
All times are in United Kingdom Time. (UTC)

Late at night on the 21st in the USA, but that don't matter.

Universal Coordinated Time not UK time, often referred to by pilots as Zulu Time.

[gerontocrat]

Watching that animation all I can think of is that the solstice is the 21st of December.

Nope...
Solstice 2019 will be at 04:19 on
Sunday, 22 December
All times are in United Kingdom Time. (UTC)

Late at night on the 21st in the USA, but that don't matter.

Universal Coordinated Time not UK time, often referred to by pilots as Zulu Time.

Universal Coordinated Time  is a johnny-come-lately invention that simply renames GMT - Greenwich Mean Time, which reflects that - 0⁰ degrees longitude runs through Greenwich, London, the original home of the Royal Astronomical Observatory & the Greenwich Naval College.

Of course Universal Coordinated Time  is now - International Atomic Time (TAI),  a time scale that uses the combined output of some 400 highly precise atomic clocks. It provides the exact speed at which our clocks tick. And every so often an extra second has to be added to align it with earth time (GMT) due to the slowing rotation of the earth.
_____________________________________________________
ps:- You may find an old Soviet era map that has 0⁰ degrees longitude running through Moscow.

[gandul]

The M stands for Meridian, not Mean.
And UTC is a reference of time intended to be used globally while GMT is no more than a time zone.
TAI is not UTC, TAI is very accurate time in seconds. UTC now uses TAI as a reference, plus leap seconds adjusted by astronomers from time to time, so that UTC midday is in sync with solar midday along Greenwich meridian, since Earth motion is not completely regular.