The 2019/2020 freezing season

[Freegrass]

Coldest New Years Eve Cold Temperature North Pole in Meteorological history, since 1948

December 31 2019,  with Polar Vortex off center weighted temperature measuring -48 C CTNP over Ellesmere Island, the coldest such air ever measured for this date,  surpassing all others by 4 degrees C (1948-2018)

.

Link >> https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2020/01/coldest-new-years-eve-cold-temperature.html

Is there any data on the temperatures in Siberia? It looks like southern winds are keeping Siberia pretty warm these days, and that can't be good for the coming summer and the permafrost...

[blumenkraft]

Yes, Freegrass, the article mentioned how the air around this tiny vortex is rather warm.

Europe snow cover is also below average.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Freegrass, it will also dry out Australia, so next fire season will be even worse than this one.

[Freegrass]

Freegrass, it will also dry out Australia, so next fire season will be even worse than this one.

Other than for the climate and the animals, I don't care about the fires in Climate Change denying Australia with it's huge coal mines and right wing criminal nutcases. Let them burn in hell!

[El Cid]

uni-hamburg amsr2uhh, atlantic side, dec25-jan2.

wow! whatsuppwiththat?? has the new  melting season begun???

[blumenkraft]

I think it's due to cracks and open leads. Apparently it was stormy there.

[gerontocrat]

I think it's due to cracks and open leads. Apparently it was stormy there.

It was, and.....

UK Metoffice says the jet stream is going to be a blast next week from the mid-Atlantic heading north-east, bringing lows and gales with it.

Could be really stormy on the Atlantic front. Attached is NullSchool for the 8th January.

[Niall Dollard]

(Is your name pronounced as Neal, or Nile?)

Yes, it's sounds more like the African river. 

But anyway back to the freezing season and I have to say I am surprised by ice conditions currently off the west Spitzbergen coast.

The West Spitzbergen current normally keeps this side of Svalbard ice-free. The current norwegian ice chart shows quite substantial ice present. Also the SSTs are quite low compared to the recent years at this  time of year. The +4 C and above area (coloured magenta) is quite south of the island.

And yet others have highlighted that there is quite a bit of movement on the Atlantic side at present.

Questions: Is this a sign of a weakening of the West Spitzbergen ? Is it AMOC related ? I wonder what the sea temperature conditions are like at depth ?
It looks like it arrived from around the south tip of the island. But other years this would melt out quickly.

[Niall Dollard]

Contrast ice chart this time 3 years ago, with West Spitzbergen SSTs approx 2 C higher. 

[Rodius]

Freegrass, it will also dry out Australia, so next fire season will be even worse than this one.

Other than for the climate and the animals, I don't care about the fires in Climate Change denying Australia with it's huge coal mines and right wing criminal nutcases. Let them burn in hell!

Please bear in mind that you need to state the difference between hating the politics and not the people. Saying Australia can burn in hell when there are 20,000 people trapped between firestorms and the ocean is really disgusting.
I have no idea how this climate denying Govt got voted in, they are probably going to be gone soon but then the opposition isnt much better. The Oz Govt is corrupt, the people are sick of it.

So, please be careful about what you say about these types of things.

[Freegrass]

Please bear in mind that you need to state the difference between hating the politics and not the people.

Politicians are representatives of the people, aren't they?

[Freegrass]

(Is your name pronounced as Neal, or Nile?)

Yes, it's sounds more like the African river. 

But anyway back to the freezing season and I have to say I am surprised by ice conditions currently off the west Spitzbergen coast.

The West Spitzbergen current normally keeps this side of Svalbard ice-free. The current norwegian ice chart shows quite substantial ice present. Also the SSTs are quite low compared to the recent years at this  time of year. The +4 C and above area (coloured magenta) is quite south of the island.

And yet others have highlighted that there is quite a bit of movement on the Atlantic side at present.

Questions: Is this a sign of a weakening of the West Spitzbergen ? Is it AMOC related ? I wonder what the sea temperature conditions are like at depth ?
It looks like it arrived from around the south tip of the island. But other years this would melt out quickly.

So Niall Dollard basically means the money river?


I was just looking at the new ocean data on Nullschool, and now you can really see the currents very clearly. If there's just a little difference somewhere in the speed of the AMOC, it's quite normal that in that area around Svalbard, where hot and cold water meet, that big differences will occur.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=currents/orthographic=-5.10,75.59,3000

I've been pondering on a new theory of mine.

If the AMOC is indeed slowing down, that would mean that less (but warmer) water is entering the arctic ocean from the Atlantic side.

I've read somewhere that the water level in the Chukchi sea is lower than the water level in the Bering sea, which results in the Bering Strait current usually flowing from the ever increasingly hotter Bering sea, toward the Chukchi sea. Unless the wind direction is south.

If the AMOC is indeed slowing down, then less water will be entering the arctic ocean from the Atlantic side. Then it would also be reasonable to presume that the water level in the arctic ocean must be going down. Which would in turn increase the inflow of hot Bering sea water into the Arctic ocean. Speeding up the warming of the arctic ocean from the Pacific side.

Is there any data on the strength of the current in the Bering strait over the last few decades? If my theory is correct, it should be detectable there.

[Rodius]

Please bear in mind that you need to state the difference between hating the politics and not the people.

Politicians are representatives of the people, aren't they?

Not always.
And the politics of a country is not a reason to hate on the people who live there. People are people. Get some perpective and grow some empathy.

[blumenkraft]

Politicians are representatives of the people, aren't they?

IIRC you are Polish, aren't you? By your logic that makes you a religious fundamentalist and right-winger. I don't think you are though.

[Freegrass]

Please bear in mind that you need to state the difference between hating the politics and not the people.

Politicians are representatives of the people, aren't they?

Not always.
And the politics of a country is not a reason to hate on the people who live there. People are people. Get some perspective and grow some empathy.

My empathy is with the poor people in poor countries that are currently already dying because of climate change that they had no part in.
My empathy is with the animals that are dying, nature that is being destroyed, and entire ecosystems that are being destroyed because of the greed of my own kind, the white ass greedy monkeys.

You still don't get it what we're fighting for, do you? Climate change is gonna kill everyone on this planet. So excuse me for not feeling sorry for a few idiots that would STILL keep those coal mines open after their entire house burned down.

[gerontocrat]

Wind and warmth heading up to the Atlantic front over the next few days.

[Rodius]

Please bear in mind that you need to state the difference between hating the politics and not the people.

Politicians are representatives of the people, aren't they?

Not always.
And the politics of a country is not a reason to hate on the people who live there. People are people. Get some perspective and grow some empathy.

My empathy is with the poor people in poor countries that are currently already dying because of climate change that they had no part in.
My empathy is with the animals that are dying, nature that is being destroyed, and entire ecosystems that are being destroyed because of the greed of my own kind, the white ass greedy monkeys.

You still don't get it what we're fighting for, do you? Climate change is gonna kill everyone on this planet. So excuse me for not feeling sorry for a few idiots that would STILL keep those coal mines open after their entire house burned down.

This is the last mention of this on this thread, if you want to continue, do it on the "I am an ignorant, pedestal standing idiot thread"

I suspect most people here know how screwed we are. I know it as well. You are preaching to the choir and sounding like you are enlightening people. It sounds stupid, to be honest.

500+ million animals dead, large destruction of forest and it will be ongoing for at least to more months. How the Govt here has allowed the destruction of the environment is criminal, and exporting coal is beyond belief, more so when demand is dropping.
The last election the Govt got in with less than 50% of the votes.
We have Murdoch media running rampant swaying public opinion into climate denial. And Govt corruption increases more over time to maintain their power (they are attempting to put through a law that could jail climate protesters up to 21 years and it is looking like it will get through).
Climate activists are disappearing.
So, yeah, you can stick your higher than thou attitude where it hurts.
In the meantime, indigenous people and people without money are losing homes, lives and livelihoods, many of which would be included in your group of truly poor people because, while Australia is rich on paper, only the top 0.5% hold the majority of that money and wealth.
And to be honest, while out per capita emissions is extremely high, and it is a country I am embarrassed to be living in, the cause of this problem includes many other rich countries with people who dont deserve to be relegated to "Who gives a fuck".

[binntho]

You still don't get it what we're fighting for, do you? Climate change is gonna kill everyone on this planet. So excuse me for not feeling sorry for a few idiots that would STILL keep those coal mines open after their entire house burned down.

It's not going to kill everybody on the planet. What rubbish. But attitudes as those expressed here are responsible for killing a hell of a lot of people through the ages. The righteousness of the apocalypticists is the biggest threat to human societies everywhere.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Freegrass, where do you live? Will you feel the same when that place burns? If you have access to the Internet you have a carbon footprint of your own bigger than those poor people.
When it’s your turn remember your posts here.

[Archimid]

It's not going to kill everybody on the planet

Tell me, what makes you so sure of it? I would really like to know. From my perspective, there is nothing holding a habitable climate together, other than accumulated luck of a favorable climate for a long time.

We are changing that luck induced climate in ways no one can possibly understand.

99.9999% of all species ever have gone extinct. What makes you so sure we are different? Why should a climate change of a magnitude greater than all mass extinctions before of us not result in the extinction of humans? Have you considered the wars this will bring in your calculations?

It is 100% reasonable to fear for your personal life in the face of climate change. It is the logical, and natural response.  Is it cool, reassuring or comfortable? NO. And it shouldn't be. Fear is what activates the human defenses and fear of climate change is 100% acceptable as long as you follow rule number one. Don't Panic.


That said, being glad for what climate change will indiscriminately bring is just really bad karma. Like Tom said, Freegrass, you are using the internet. Like all of us, you are guilty of exerting too much change over the world. So if we judge you by the same measure as you judge these people. we should be glad when climate change hits you too. I won't be. Like almost everyone else, you are a victim of the circumstances.

The people who are to blame are people who profited from lying about climate change (fraud) and officials who grossly neglected their duties by hiding climate change from the public. they must be used to set an example out of them and launch every other living person on this planet on a path to climate change action.

[echoughton]

There is no one to "Blame" Intelligent human beings have created an amazing world. Those living 150 years ago...shit! 50 years ago!!...could never possibly imagine what has been created, transforming transportation, healthcare, agriculture, manufacturing...EVERYTHING imaginable...and all to the betterment of humans. We live longer, healthier, richer lives in the west...and that has spread like wildfire...oops...to the darkest places on earth. We now have a big problem with climate change , partly because of all this...but it's nothing we cannot manage.

So utterly exhausted by alarmism.

[Archimid]

Liars who profited from their lies about climate change and officials with sworn duties who lied to their people about climate change need to face justice, like Nazis. An example must be made.

So utterly exhausted by alarmism.

I'm much more exhausted by the increasing disasters. They will only get worse. It's like compound interest in reverse.

[echoughton]

Liars who profited from their lies about climate change and officials with sworn duties who lied to their people about climate change need to face justice, like Nazis. An example must be made.

So utterly exhausted by alarmism.

I'm much more exhausted by the increasing disasters. They will only get worse. It's like compound interest in reverse.

Like companies who supply energy to heat and cool homes? And politicians who don't want their constituents to freeze to death or roast in their bedrooms? If you think it okay to bring these people and corporations up on some trumped-up charges of crimes against humanity, YOU are the Nazi. I'm done

[pleun]

All politicians lie to the public. it's in their nature and inherent of their function. But I think there are two subgroups : one that has the publics best interest at heart and one that has a different agenda, usually their own benefit. It is the latter group that people like Archimid and myself have a problem with...

[Archimid]

If they lied about climate change to preserve their profits, they need to pay. If they never engaged in denial or even better, they are looking for solutions, then they are innocent.

The problem of making the world sustainable is no one's fault because it is everyone's fault. However, those that delayed the transition through deceit and for-profit must pay. I have no problem with those who profit without deceit, as they are just playing by the rules or those who deceive without profit because they are just useful idiots.

[Hefaistos]

Is there so much ice in the Arctic this year that there is no need for the freezing season stuff anymore?
Please, get back on topic.

[be cause]

this is the freezing season .. so just chill .. b.c.

[Shared Humanity]

Please bear in mind that you need to state the difference between hating the politics and not the people.

Politicians are representatives of the people, aren't they?

Not always.
And the politics of a country is not a reason to hate on the people who live there. People are people. Get some perspective and grow some empathy.

My empathy is with the poor people in poor countries that are currently already dying because of climate change that they had no part in.
My empathy is with the animals that are dying, nature that is being destroyed, and entire ecosystems that are being destroyed because of the greed of my own kind, the white ass greedy monkeys.

You still don't get it what we're fighting for, do you? Climate change is gonna kill everyone on this planet. So excuse me for not feeling sorry for a few idiots that would STILL keep those coal mines open after their entire house burned down.

This conversation is best carried on here.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1428.350.html

Please stop cluttering a thread that is supposed to track the freeze season.

[gerontocrat]

For a change, a post that may have some relevance to the 2019-20 Freezing season

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +1.6 to +2.0 celsius over the next 5 days.
It looks like a tale of two halves - Eurasia side warm to very warm, Canada & Alaska cold. Bering may warm up in a couple of days.

Strong winds and warmth arriving from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea.

[blumenkraft]

Sunday movie time! 

7day hindsight mean.

[blumenkraft]

SAR Fram export.

[ArcticMelt2]

https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

Bering Sea ice extent has expanded significantly with sustained north winds. Currently at 83% of 1981-2010 average extent from @NSIDC data, but a bit behind 2019. Change in the weather pattern is likely later this week that will slow #seaice growth. #akwx #Arctic @Climatologist49

[Shared Humanity]

Extent is growing late but very fast. Very unlike 2017/2018 and a little bit behind 2018/2019 which declined very early in February. It will be interesting to see if late forming ice melts out early again this year.

[Aluminium]

December 24 - January 5.

2018/2019.

[Pavel]

The new thin ice is forming in the Laptev sea while the old ice is moving to the Fram strait. This is the usuall pattern but this summer the Siberian and the Chuckchi side could be vulnurable because of lack of thick ice

[Freegrass]

Is there any data on the strength of the current in the Bering strait over the last few decades?

Everyone was attacking my drunken message, but I didn't get any response on the question if there is any data available on the strength of the Bering Strait current over the last few decades? I would like to know if that current became stronger, or stayed the same in the last 50 years or so, but I can't find any graphs on Google..

[SimonF92]

Is there any data on the strength of the current in the Bering strait over the last few decades?

Everyone was attacking my drunken message, but I didn't get any response on the question if there is any data available on the strength of the Bering Strait current over the last few decades? I would like to know if that current became stronger, or stayed the same in the last 50 years or so, but I can't find any graphs on Google..

here (the format is a bit weird but the data is great):

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/HLD/Bstrait/BeringStraitSeasonalInterannualChange2017.html

[Freegrass]

Is there any data on the strength of the current in the Bering strait over the last few decades?

Everyone was attacking my drunken message, but I didn't get any response on the question if there is any data available on the strength of the Bering Strait current over the last few decades? I would like to know if that current became stronger, or stayed the same in the last 50 years or so, but I can't find any graphs on Google..

here (the format is a bit weird but the data is great):

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/HLD/Bstrait/BeringStraitSeasonalInterannualChange2017.html

Thanks Simon! This is what I was looking for.

Year-round in situ Bering Strait mooring data (1990-2015) document a long-term increase (~0.01Sv/yr whole record, ~0.02Sv since 2000) in the annual mean transport of Pacific waters into the Arctic.  Between 2002 and present (2015), all annual mean transports (except 2005 and 2012) are greater than the previously accepted climatology (~0.8Sv).

Does this mean that my theory could be true? That the inflow from the Bering strait increases as the AMOC slows down?

[Neven]

I've been ill for a few days, so sorry for not responding to complaints regarding Freegrass' 'drunken message'. I do not necessarily have a problem with the content of the message, although I believe these things can be expressed in more nuanced - or less drunken - ways. I do, however, have a problem with the derailment potential of such remarks in this central forum thread, as evidenced. So, sorry again, for not responding in time. And Freegrass, don't make such remarks over here, drunk or not, thanks.

[Freegrass]

I've been ill for a few days, so sorry for not responding to complaints regarding Freegrass' 'drunken message'. I do not necessarily have a problem with the content of the message, although I believe these things can be expressed in more nuanced - or less drunken - ways. I do, however, have a problem with the derailment potential of such remarks in this central forum thread, as evidenced. So, sorry again, for not responding in time. And Freegrass, don't make such remarks over here, drunk or not, thanks.

Hi Neven. So sorry to hear you've been ill. Hope you're feeling better right now!
My apologies for that message, but sometimes I just get so depressed and angry when I see our beautiful planet destroyed...

If I can make a suggestion, I would delete messages that contain personal attacks. That's the rule on the investors hub message board. No personal attacks, because it's those messages that really mess up a good conversation.

[SimonF92]

Figure 7C from that paper seems to suggest that the damage to the Chuchki in terms of Oceanic heat transfer is being done in high-summer (~ June, July, ~ August) and not just in the Autumn when the effects manifest.

I suppose in a way that makes sense, but its still interesting to see peer-reviewed data showing this.

[Freegrass]

...its still interesting to see peer-reviewed data showing this.

I think we're already seeing the results during the melting and freezing season, no? It took ages for the Chukchi sea to freeze over, and during summer, most of the melting is on the Pacific side, while melting on the Atlantic side wasn't all that fierce last year.

The danger I see is that most of the methane hydrates are located on the side that's warming up the fastest. When more heat starts to enter the Arctic ocean from the Bering sea, this puts those hydrates at even more risks of melting much sooner...

[SimonF92]

...its still interesting to see peer-reviewed data showing this.

I think we're already seeing the results during the melting and freezing season, no? It took ages for the Chukchi sea to freeze over, and during summer, most of the melting is on the Pacific side, while melting on the Atlantic side wasn't all that fierce last year.

The danger I see is that most of the methane hydrates are located on the side that's warming up the fastest. When more heat starts to enter the Arctic ocean from the Bering sea, this puts those hydrates at even more risks of melting much sooner...

Several billion tonnes of cement poured into the strait and a Beluga trebuchet to prevent ecological disaster will fix the issue

[Tom_Mazanec]

...its still interesting to see peer-reviewed data showing this.

I think we're already seeing the results during the melting and freezing season, no? It took ages for the Chukchi sea to freeze over, and during summer, most of the melting is on the Pacific side, while melting on the Atlantic side wasn't all that fierce last year.

The danger I see is that most of the methane hydrates are located on the side that's warming up the fastest. When more heat starts to enter the Arctic ocean from the Bering sea, this puts those hydrates at even more risks of melting much sooner...

Several billion tonnes of cement poured into the strait and a Beluga trebuchet to prevent ecological disaster will fix the issue

But do you think that will actually be done?

[SimonF92]

...its still interesting to see peer-reviewed data showing this.

I think we're already seeing the results during the melting and freezing season, no? It took ages for the Chukchi sea to freeze over, and during summer, most of the melting is on the Pacific side, while melting on the Atlantic side wasn't all that fierce last year.

The danger I see is that most of the methane hydrates are located on the side that's warming up the fastest. When more heat starts to enter the Arctic ocean from the Bering sea, this puts those hydrates at even more risks of melting much sooner...

Several billion tonnes of cement poured into the strait and a Beluga trebuchet to prevent ecological disaster will fix the issue

But do you think that will actually be done?

Personally I dont think Geoengineering on that scale is ever a good idea, even if it would almost certainly help preserve ice.

[Freegrass]

Why cement? Just drop a lot of rocks into the Bering Strait until the flow decreases to a level that preserves the ice, but still allows marine life do its thing. It's maybe not so crazy at all...

Did we just save the planet by closing the door of the fridge?

Edit: And when you have less hot water flowing in from the Bering strait, you also have less cold water flowing out through the Fram...

[gerontocrat]

Why cement? Just drop a lot of rocks into the Bering Strait until the flow decreases to a level that preserves the ice, but still allows marine life do its thing. It's maybe not so crazy at all...

Did I just save the planet by closing the door of the fridge?

No. The law of unintended consequences would be bound to apply. AGW would still happen,
If warmth can't enter the Arctic Ocean through the Strait then at other times cold can't exit the Arctic into the North Pacific. The Bering Sea would likely heat up even faster - perhaps large parts of Alaska and far East Russia too, accelerating permafrost melt and thus methane and CO2 emissions.

It is a lunatic idea and thus is likely to be attempted. After all, a mere couple of hundred million tonnes of cement should be enough to make sufficient concrete for the job, and that's only 5% of annual world cement production.

[Freegrass]

Why cement? Just drop a lot of rocks into the Bering Strait until the flow decreases to a level that preserves the ice, but still allows marine life do its thing. It's maybe not so crazy at all...

Did I just save the planet by closing the door of the fridge?

It is a lunatic idea and thus is likely to be attempted.

Funny, but true! 

But I don't really think it's all that crazy if you just start by reducing the flow to its original state. And you could do this slowly. Poor in some rocks, and see what happens. Poor in some more, and when bad things start to happen, stop pouring and take out some rocks again.

It would surely give us more time with those dangerous hydrates...

[Freegrass]

If warmth can't enter the Arctic Ocean through the Strait then at other times cold can't exit the Arctic into the North Pacific. The Bering Sea would likely heat up even faster - perhaps large parts of Alaska and far East Russia too, accelerating permafrost melt and thus methane and CO2 emissions.

I actually think that by stopping hot water to enter from the Bering sea, that the cooling of the Arctic would help to protect the permafrost.

The flow of the water is always into the Arctic ocean, and so no cold water ever flows from the Arctic Ocean into the Bering Sea, unless there is a southern wind. (this needs a fact check) So by stopping hot water to enter the Arctic, you keep it cool, which will help to keep our planet cool.

AGW will indeed still continue. It needs to be stopped. But maybe we can stop a disaster by doing this. It's cheap, easy, and low impact on marine life IMHO. Although I'm sure a lot more educated people than me will have something to say about this...

[Pmt111500]

Yep, the current in Bering Strait is mostly northwards, though with occasional reversals. The surface is quite rarely outbound of Arctic, the bottom (c.50m deep) more often, but the net is usually northwards. Formerly Oyashio-current was more powerful when Ohotsk and Bering Sea had thicker ice.

If someone did the dam there they'd better open it when ever current is southbound, I guess.