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SimonF92

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #700 on: January 07, 2020, 03:24:52 PM »
In my effort to be facetious I have dragged up a pretty long standing discussion about the dam which you can find over at

"Stupid questions :o"

I think it was gerontocrat himself (could be wrong though) who provided me with some good reading over there about it, if any of you want to have a look.
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #701 on: January 07, 2020, 03:26:59 PM »
Yep, the current in Bering Strait is mostly northwards, though with occasional reversals. The surface is quite rarely outbound of Arctic, the bottom (c.50m deep) more often, but the net is usually northwards. Formerly Oyashio-current was more powerful when Ohotsk and Bering Sea had thicker ice.

If someone did the dam there they'd better open it when ever current is southbound, I guess.
The big question is where that cold water would have most of its benefits; Cooling the arctic, or cooling the giant pacific ocean...

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=currents/orthographic=-175.46,60.85,2647

Edit: here's a crazy thought... Did the closing a change in direction of the current in the Bering Strait cause Ice ages? Is the Bering Strait our termostat?

Edit2: I love this idea... During an ice age the ice builds up in the arctic, which in turn will push the earth's crust down. And at a certain point in time, the arctic will have dropped so much, that the hot water from the Pacific start pouring into the arctic again through the Bering Strait. Heating up the arctic ocean, ending the ice age, raising the land again, reversing the current again, causing a new Ice age, etc...

How feasible is this hypothesis?
« Last Edit: January 07, 2020, 04:37:48 PM by Freegrass »
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RikW

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #702 on: January 07, 2020, 04:07:47 PM »
not; since sea-ice will have almost no effect on the balance distribution :)

FrostKing70

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #703 on: January 07, 2020, 04:35:39 PM »
Let's be careful not to spend to much time and effort on dealing with a symptom of the problem...

oren

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #704 on: January 07, 2020, 04:36:32 PM »
Freegrass and all, having just been told a no-no about derailment of this thread, please avoid further derailment by the Bering Strait dam idea. It has its own thread (with 181 posts!), but in any case this is certainly not the place for such discussion.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1545.msg76945.html

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #705 on: January 07, 2020, 04:42:42 PM »
Freegrass and all, having just been told a no-no about derailment of this thread, please avoid further derailment by the Bering Strait dam idea. It has its own thread (with 181 posts!), but in any case this is certainly not the place for such discussion.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1545.msg76945.html
Thanks Oren. Good to know my idea isn't all that crazy after all. I'll read up on the topic over there. Thanks!
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RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #706 on: January 07, 2020, 06:24:12 PM »
If warmth can't enter the Arctic Ocean through the Strait then at other times cold can't exit the Arctic into the North Pacific. The Bering Sea would likely heat up even faster - perhaps large parts of Alaska and far East Russia too, accelerating permafrost melt and thus methane and CO2 emissions.

I actually think that by stopping hot water to enter from the Bering sea, that the cooling of the Arctic would help to protect the permafrost.

The flow of the water is always into the Arctic ocean, and so no cold water ever flows from the Arctic Ocean into the Bering Sea, unless there is a southern wind. (this needs a fact check) So by stopping hot water to enter the Arctic, you keep it cool, which will help to keep our planet cool.

AGW will indeed still continue. It needs to be stopped. But maybe we can stop a disaster by doing this. It's cheap, easy, and low impact on marine life IMHO. Although I'm sure a lot more educated people than me will have something to say about this...

Blocking the Bering is more akin to putting a blanket over your air conditioner heat exchanger, rather than closing your fridge door. The AC heat exchanger gets really cold: The rest of the room heats up until equilibrium is reached.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #707 on: January 07, 2020, 07:26:53 PM »
Aren't the poles the only places where the planet can lose its heat? I'm thinking that if there would be more ice, that the Arctic would be colder and able to release more heat into space, overall cooling the planet, and giving us more time before the feedback loops kick in and the climate runs out of our control.

The Arctic is heating up faster than any other place on earth, so cooling it down seems logical to me. And I don't think this would heat up the rest of the planet more.
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Aleph_Null

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #708 on: January 07, 2020, 07:30:06 PM »
I cribbed this Worldview set-up from Uniquorn's, in the Megacrack thread. Then I zoomed in on the ice east of Barrow. From this view of four days ago to today, this "Brightness Temperature" band is so cool I think it's of general interest. In case folks didn't know Worldview allows us to see in the dark this way. It's obscured by atmospheric conditions like an optical image (only worse -- through a stein of beer, darkly), but the clearings tell thrilling tales of ice dynamics:

https://go.nasa.gov/39PbQGg

longwalks1

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #709 on: January 07, 2020, 07:34:13 PM »
The beluga trebuchet lets me know that it is <<sarc>>  please move on.  SimonF92 I really did enjoy your sarcasm.  A team of narwhals assist  to load the trebuchets buckets appeared to me mentally and I spit some of the coffee in my mouth.. 

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #710 on: January 07, 2020, 07:43:17 PM »
gnnng sdlkto vlspto  ;)
« Last Edit: January 08, 2020, 01:55:01 AM by uniquorn »

Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #711 on: January 07, 2020, 09:22:20 PM »
gnnng sdlkto vlspto  ;)
Nice synoptic view.  Took me a while to figure out the legend - each frame is a day starting in September 2019 to Jan. 6, 2020.

be cause

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #712 on: January 07, 2020, 10:37:29 PM »
thanks Uniquorn .. looks like the whole Arctic is as directionless this season as Polarstern's buoys . Very different to recent years and poles apart from last year's charge from Siberia toward Fram . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #713 on: January 07, 2020, 10:44:39 PM »
Would like to let everyone here working intently to derail this thread that I have decided to no longer visit this thread for freezing season updates as I do not have the time to waste.

Congrats!

be cause

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #714 on: January 07, 2020, 11:01:12 PM »
I cribbed this Worldview set-up from Uniquorn's, in the Megacrack thread. Then I zoomed in on the ice east of Barrow. From this view of four days ago to today, this "Brightness Temperature" band is so cool I think it's of general interest. In case folks didn't know Worldview allows us to see in the dark this way. It's obscured by atmospheric conditions like an optical image (only worse -- through a stein of beer, darkly), but the clearings tell thrilling tales of ice dynamics:

https://go.nasa.gov/39PbQGg

a perfect opportunity to remind folk that this Worldview is the perfect medium for looking at previous winters . For a true Megacrack go back to Valentine's day 2018 . The following 2 weeks are compulsive viewing .. b.c.

ps .. please don't all but the shit dumper's jump ship .. there is a long way to go to the melting season .
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

Rodius

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #715 on: January 08, 2020, 01:06:07 AM »
ps .. please don't all but the shit dumper's jump ship .. there is a long way to go to the melting season .
It was never about the videos I posted, was it, you little shit? You just don't want me to post anything at all, isn't it, you miserable little shit?
Seriously?
First, you want Australia to burn in hell, then you blame drunkness and fail to apologize.
When asked to stop derailing the thread then immediately double down and derail it even more.
To add insult to injury, you ask Neven to delete personal attacks (I assume) on you and not long after you are insulting people.
Seriously.... just stop it, you are killing the thread.

be cause

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #716 on: January 08, 2020, 02:31:14 AM »
thanks again , Uniquorn . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #717 on: January 08, 2020, 02:58:07 AM »
sdft: lkjjthe oeuthglod '[aw  ;)  :)
asldkfjiov laigal iaoiu :P
apologies, I couldn't be bothered to type on this thread last night
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sep21-jan6
« Last Edit: January 08, 2020, 02:37:25 PM by uniquorn »

oren

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #718 on: January 08, 2020, 08:53:39 AM »
Uniquorn the animation is superb, but what's with the gibberish? I must be thick headed as I'm not getting it.
Edit: Thank you for the explanation.
« Last Edit: January 08, 2020, 06:10:19 PM by oren »

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #719 on: January 08, 2020, 05:53:02 PM »
Great animation!

I'm still wondering what has changed to increase the ice in the Barent Sea over the last year. For the previous few of years it barely made it over the Nansen Basin continental shelf with incursions up the St Anna Trough. This year it's filling up the sea between FJL and Svalbard.

Is this a worrying indication of less heat transport from a slowing AMOC? Nothing else seems to have changed.
« Last Edit: January 08, 2020, 06:14:27 PM by RoxTheGeologist »

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #720 on: January 08, 2020, 06:07:38 PM »
Aren't the poles the only places where the planet can lose its heat? I'm thinking that if there would be more ice, that the Arctic would be colder and able to release more heat into space, overall cooling the planet, and giving us more time before the feedback loops kick in and the climate runs out of our control.

The Arctic is heating up faster than any other place on earth, so cooling it down seems logical to me. And I don't think this would heat up the rest of the planet more.

This is entirely wrong. Hot things emit more heat than cool things. The low latitudes gain heat through insolation. The whole planet is losing heat all the time, more rapidly at the low latitudes as they are warmer. The disparity in insolation heating causes the atmosphere and oceans to operate as heat pumps, transferring heat from the low latitudes to high latitudes and increasing the overall efficiency of heat loss. If you stop the transfer of heat to the poles you reduce the ability of the earth to lose heat.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #721 on: January 08, 2020, 10:53:43 PM »
I'm still wondering what has changed to increase the ice in the Barent Sea over the last year.
Perhaps the ice is more mobile. osi-saf drift sep21-jan6

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #722 on: January 08, 2020, 11:11:21 PM »
Aren't the poles the only places where the planet can lose its heat? I'm thinking that if there would be more ice, that the Arctic would be colder and able to release more heat into space, overall cooling the planet, and giving us more time before the feedback loops kick in and the climate runs out of our control.

The Arctic is heating up faster than any other place on earth, so cooling it down seems logical to me. And I don't think this would heat up the rest of the planet more.

This is entirely wrong. Hot things emit more heat than cool things. The low latitudes gain heat through insolation. The whole planet is losing heat all the time, more rapidly at the low latitudes as they are warmer. The disparity in insolation heating causes the atmosphere and oceans to operate as heat pumps, transferring heat from the low latitudes to high latitudes and increasing the overall efficiency of heat loss. If you stop the transfer of heat to the poles you reduce the ability of the earth to lose heat.
Yeah, when I wrote that I was already doubting if it was correct. I remembered something I read here about cooling at the poles. I can't remember what it was.

The problem I see is that without ice, the Arctic ocean soaks up a lot more heat then when it would still be covered with ice. So I'm still thinking that preventing the ice to melt on the pacific side would be a smart thing to do. You don't need to build an entire dam and close up the whole strait. I think you just need to squeeze the flow of water just enough so that you don't lose the ice in summer. This would increase albedo and slow the warming IMHO.

Transport of ocean heat would still continue on the atlantic side and through weather systems, but I think that flooding the arctic ocean with increasingly hot water from the gigantic pacific ocean is a bad idea. It melts the ice faster, and increase the uptake of solar energy. That's why I think that closing up the Bering strait a little may help to slow down global warming... But I'm still reading that other thread. So I'm still updating my brain...

<Take this discussion elsewhere, please, thanks; N.>
« Last Edit: January 09, 2020, 12:30:00 AM by Neven »
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #723 on: January 08, 2020, 11:15:02 PM »
I'm still wondering what has changed to increase the ice in the Barent Sea over the last year.
Perhaps the ice is more mobile. osi-saf drift sep21-jan6
There was a strong northern wind blowing over the Barents sea for a long time at the end of this summer, and that cooled it down a lot.
« Last Edit: January 08, 2020, 11:22:53 PM by Freegrass »
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RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #724 on: January 09, 2020, 07:07:14 PM »
I'm still wondering what has changed to increase the ice in the Barent Sea over the last year.
Perhaps the ice is more mobile. osi-saf drift sep21-jan6

Thanks for the animation! Ether more cold input or less heat or a bit of both. It could be that there is much more ice being pushed out over the Barents, that the yearly changes are just noise. We remain avid observers.

If you had to pick one visible symptom of a slowing AMOC in a warming world? For me it would be less heat in the Barents, and more ice, it's far to the North and only the AMOC's heat keeps it ice free.

Steven

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #725 on: January 09, 2020, 10:03:56 PM »
There was a strong northern wind blowing over the Barents sea for a long time at the end of this summer, and that cooled it down a lot.

Indeed.  There have been cold north winds in that region for much of the past year.

Average surface wind anomalies during the past 12 months: (source)


gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #726 on: January 12, 2020, 05:28:57 PM »
Atlantic Front

Greenland and Barents Seas lost some sea ice area in the last few days. First 2 images

But I don't think it will last somehow. Warm winds into the Norwegian Sea but.... (last image)
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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #727 on: January 12, 2020, 06:50:57 PM »
Last weeks 7-day hindsight means GIF (anomalies)
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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #728 on: January 12, 2020, 06:58:01 PM »
Last weeks ice-drift map, 05th to 11th.
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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #729 on: January 12, 2020, 07:05:40 PM »
For some reason, the Norwegian met site stopped working on the 9th. So here is a half a week of Fram export via SAR.
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ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #730 on: January 12, 2020, 11:10:34 PM »
https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

Quote
Bering Sea ice extent growth in @NSIDC data has slowed in recent days as winds have turned more southerly. Extent is just above 2019 and just below the 1981-2020 median. Weather upcoming week will not be favorable for much #seaice extent change. #akwx #Arctic @Climatologist49


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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #731 on: January 14, 2020, 09:10:44 AM »
https://twitter.com/CinderBDT907/status/1216839830400913410

Quote
Ponds nearshore today. And this is before the increase in insolation that will come at the end of the month when the sun comes up.
https://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_webcam/



https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

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Shorefast #seaice broke off at Utqiaġvik a couple days ago. In mid-January. Tough to work on this ice. #akwx

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #732 on: January 14, 2020, 02:14:46 PM »
Those ponds, together with "Last weeks 7-day hindsight means GIF (anomalies)" posted by Blumencraft just few posts above, confirm one big suspicion i had for this freezing season: namely, the huge winter mode shift for Arctic and subarctic regions. Which shift is more heat and moisture in the system causing more clouds remaining for much of the winter, which clouds then dramatically slow down winter-time heat loss from both the surface and lower athmosphere. Which slowing further massively extends duration and scale of "thickly clouded" areas - a runaway process.

Obviously, any prolonged periods of massively dwarfed heat-loss process in Arctic and adjucent regions - will have significant impact on following melting season(s), but there is yet one much more serious implication: the "albedo connection" as one may perhaps call it. The warmer things are, the less places are snow-covered by the time insolation starts to be a thing again (and the less snowcover's thickness / brightness is there in places which still retain some snowcover, too). Just like ArcticMelt2 just mentioned: "when the sun comes up", which for sub-arctic regions is already pretty much "now" or "very soon".

Right about now, we have much of the Arctic cloudy (good bye, "polar desert", eh), and even some parts of it - between Iceland and UK/Scandinavia - getting few millimeters of rain. If those cyclones would keep coming same way, then together with seriously positive SST anomalies around Scandinavia and all along US eastern coast - then i wouldn't be surprised to see Atlantic side of the Arctic going blue much much earlier than ever before, later this year.
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #733 on: January 14, 2020, 03:21:29 PM »
Those ponds, together with "Last weeks 7-day hindsight means GIF (anomalies)" posted by Blumencraft just few posts above, confirm one big suspicion i had for this freezing season: namely, the huge winter mode shift for Arctic and subarctic regions. Which shift is more heat and moisture in the system causing more clouds remaining for much of the winter, which clouds then dramatically slow down winter-time heat loss from both the surface and lower athmosphere. Which slowing further massively extends duration and scale of "thickly clouded" areas - a runaway process.

Obviously, any prolonged periods of massively dwarfed heat-loss process in Arctic and adjucent regions - will have significant impact on following melting season(s), but there is yet one much more serious implication: the "albedo connection" as one may perhaps call it. The warmer things are, the less places are snow-covered by the time insolation starts to be a thing again (and the less snowcover's thickness / brightness is there in places which still retain some snowcover, too). Just like ArcticMelt2 just mentioned: "when the sun comes up", which for sub-arctic regions is already pretty much "now" or "very soon".

Right about now, we have much of the Arctic cloudy (good bye, "polar desert", eh), and even some parts of it - between Iceland and UK/Scandinavia - getting few millimeters of rain. If those cyclones would keep coming same way, then together with seriously positive SST anomalies around Scandinavia and all along US eastern coast - then i wouldn't be surprised to see Atlantic side of the Arctic going blue much much earlier than ever before, later this year.

very well said/written as always and very much along my line thinking also as usual ;) ;)

as posted here: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,416.msg243972.html#msg243972

interestingly "the heck" some apperently do not agree but unfortunately i've not seen any
arguments against our way of seeing things.

As to insolation, starting the 24th of January in Utqiagvik/Barrow

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #734 on: January 14, 2020, 03:22:13 PM »
Interesting.

What are the best ways to see cloudiness in the arctic?
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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #735 on: January 14, 2020, 03:53:40 PM »
Average surface wind anomalies during the past 12 months: (source)
Thanks Steven. Here comparing noaa/esrl sep-dec wind anomaly with jan1 uni-hamburg amsr2, 2013-2020. click to run.

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #736 on: January 14, 2020, 08:56:26 PM »
The one exception I have with your sharp analysis is that a wetter Arctic results in more snow. We might see a delay in ice melt because so much snow needs to melt first.

While NH snow cover extent is much below average, snow water equivalent is much above average. Where there is snow, it is much deeper than normal.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2876.100.html#lastPost

If there is precipitation in the Arctic, it is falling as snow.

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #737 on: January 14, 2020, 08:57:23 PM »
What we know for certain is this will be a riveting melt season.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #738 on: January 14, 2020, 10:10:07 PM »
The one exception I have with your sharp analysis is that a wetter Arctic results in more snow. We might see a delay in ice melt because so much snow needs to melt first.

While NH snow cover extent is much below average, snow water equivalent is much above average. Where there is snow, it is much deeper than normal.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2876.100.html#lastPost

If there is precipitation in the Arctic, it is falling as snow.
That snow is a very bad thing for the permafrost. just like the high temperatures in Siberia. I guess we'll be seeing a lot of methane being released this coming summer.
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Hefaistos

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #739 on: January 14, 2020, 11:21:02 PM »
Interesting.

What are the best ways to see cloudiness in the arctic?

https://climatereanalyzer.org/reanalysis/monthly_tseries/

Here is a plot showing the opposite of what is claimed about increasing cloudiness.

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #740 on: January 15, 2020, 12:55:32 AM »
It was quite a spectacular lift off from Barrow/Utqiagvik.

Here is sketch of the local currents and the effects they have on the ice. Sounds like the recent event was caused by the "Atchagnaq".

I agree with comments before that much of the ice around is thin (late formed). There is old ice to the north of Point Barrow.

I think what made this one so dramatic is that it stripped away practically all the shorefast ice at Utqiagvik and also a considerable amount of shorefast broke away along the north coast east of Point Barrow. (as per BL's excellent video).

This evening the ice is back.

Rodius

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #741 on: January 15, 2020, 02:59:08 AM »
Interesting.

What are the best ways to see cloudiness in the arctic?

https://climatereanalyzer.org/reanalysis/monthly_tseries/

Here is a plot showing the opposite of what is claimed about increasing cloudiness.

Silly question.
It looks like there is less cloudiness in the arctic region.
But does that translate to less precipitation?

In my head, you might have less cloud cover in the sky, but it is possible for the clouds to carry more moisture and drop it in larger and fast amounts.

Is it possible that this is the situation in the artic?

Wildcatter

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #742 on: January 15, 2020, 04:13:56 AM »
Hi all,

As an amateur observer, I've paid quite close attention to the Arctic this season, so maybe others can elaborate on some things i've noticed.

1) Cyclones in the North Atlantic. For the last 2-3 weeks, deep developing cyclones have been a constant. A couple have reached 940mbar, real monsters. Pulling right down the Greenland current, and undoubtedly affecting Arctic inflow with Atlantic water. Sidenote: I have to imagine these winds and 15m waves hitting Greenland, probably has some affect on underwater melting via mixing?
 
https://www.severe-weather.eu/recent-events/north-atlantic-onroll-intense-extra-tropical-cyclones-mk/

2) Incoming collapse of the Beaufort High. The typical anti-cyclonic gyre wind and pressure is getting increasingly encroached by cyclonic low-pressure. I don't know enough about this, but the research i've seen has insinuated the effect on ice formation in the Pacific ice, Beaufort/Chukchi/ESS, but can also affect the CAA.

Zack Labe actually had a picture in the melting season, that showed the significant meridional anomaly right up the Bering for the year (pic link right below). I'm guessing it was the high pressures from the Pacific contrasting with the Aleutian lows. I haven't watched enough years for precedent data, but there's also been some cyclone formation closer to the land masses on the Pacific this winter season. That can advect some real warmth.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EB5d4YuU4AAgalW.jpg

And just my opinion, but baroclinity and cyclone formation + the low pressure patterns they arise from (and contrasting high pressures) with baroclinity differences seem like they may be understated in the grand scheme of things. We've seen the effect in late summer, the effect it can have over the Barents, and the water flow + advection they can perform, which could serve to only exacerbate the situation. Long term, anyway.

The US has also been getting hit by severe weather, and more coming the next 5-7 days. So if you're interested in snow extent, snow depth, etc, may want to check on that the next week. There was also a minor chance of a vortex disruption, but who knows. The last few have occurred around early February for US weather, I believe.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/15-day-outlook-ridge-cold-usa-europe-fa/

binntho

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #743 on: January 15, 2020, 09:56:21 AM »
Interesting.

What are the best ways to see cloudiness in the arctic?

https://climatereanalyzer.org/reanalysis/monthly_tseries/

Here is a plot showing the opposite of what is claimed about increasing cloudiness.

Very interesting. Cloud cover is not everything of course, and in the Arctic, low-lying fog is quite common and probably not counted as cloud. I wonder if anybody is qualified to claim anything about changes in fog prevalence in the Arctic?

Also it'd be interesting to see if humidity has changed (or rather, the total amount of water vapor - which I presume has increased).
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HapHazard

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #744 on: January 15, 2020, 08:01:11 PM »

Here is a plot showing the opposite of what is claimed about increasing cloudiness.

That looks to be a yearly tally. What about seasonally?

I used to live in a city in BC which is ranked as one of the sunniest in Canada. But it's simultaneously one of the cloudiest - in the winter.

Hefaistos

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #745 on: January 15, 2020, 10:18:13 PM »

Here is a plot showing the opposite of what is claimed about increasing cloudiness.

That looks to be a yearly tally. What about seasonally?

I used to live in a city in BC which is ranked as one of the sunniest in Canada. But it's simultaneously one of the cloudiest - in the winter.

Here is the cloud cover for October - April.
You can select any period you want at the Reanalyzer.

Same impression, cloudiness is down.

Hefaistos

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #746 on: January 15, 2020, 10:22:21 PM »

Very interesting. Cloud cover is not everything of course, and in the Arctic, low-lying fog is quite common and probably not counted as cloud. I wonder if anybody is qualified to claim anything about changes in fog prevalence in the Arctic?

Also it'd be interesting to see if humidity has changed (or rather, the total amount of water vapor - which I presume has increased).

Hi binntho,
here are some plots from the Reanalyzer, it's snow depth, TPW and precipitation. All year.
Snow depth is a bit down, TPW is a bit up.

If you want some specific month or range of months, you can select that.
I checked TPW for October - April also, and it's significantly up, see last attachment. So maybe gives some input to the issue of 'fogginess'.

You can also respecify what area you want to include. Their 'Arctic' goes all the way down to 60 N, but you can choose another latitude as you like.
« Last Edit: January 15, 2020, 10:28:17 PM by Hefaistos »

binntho

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #747 on: January 16, 2020, 06:23:54 AM »
Thanks Hefaistos. Total precipitable water has been going up (as I expected), while snow water equivalent seems to be mostly stable, perhaps decreasing slightly.

Does that indicate more fogginess? Ground-hugging fog probably has a big effect on heat transfer and insolation. But I'm not sure how big, and lacking direct evidence, I guess one can't say anything about eventual changes in fogginess either.
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #748 on: January 16, 2020, 07:07:41 AM »
January 3-15.

2019.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #749 on: January 16, 2020, 09:50:24 PM »
Thanks for the regular aminations Aluminium. Focusing on the Atlantic side, a number of interesting transitory features stand out today.
The low concentration ice over the Yermak Plateau, north of Svalbard, detailed on the rammb thread by Blumenkraft.
Low concentration ice close to the edge of the Nansen Basin as far as FJL.
More sea ice to the south west of Svalbard.
Transitory ice edge correlations with bathy in the Barents
gmrt bathymetry map here
« Last Edit: January 16, 2020, 11:56:25 PM by uniquorn »