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SimonF92

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #750 on: January 17, 2020, 11:44:32 AM »
I was reading this last week, seems pretty relevant

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-34450-3
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #751 on: January 17, 2020, 03:17:28 PM »

Aleph_Null

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #752 on: January 17, 2020, 11:43:20 PM »
GISS December 2019 land-ocean temperature anomalies

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #753 on: January 19, 2020, 06:09:11 PM »
Moah data! \o/

Temperature anomalies 7-day hindsight mean.
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #754 on: January 19, 2020, 06:09:45 PM »
Fram export via SAR
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #755 on: January 19, 2020, 06:10:29 PM »
And ice-drift!
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ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #756 on: January 19, 2020, 07:03:03 PM »
https://twitter.com/zlabe

Quote
Bering Sea #seaice extent fell by more than 20% in the past week and as of January 18th was at 67% of the 1981-2010 average. Lack of ice is especially notable off the Chukotka coast. Quite likely to see expansion of the extent upcoming week. #akwx #Arctic
@Climatologist49


Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #757 on: January 20, 2020, 12:29:46 AM »
GISS December 2019 land-ocean temperature anomalies
I'm wondering if the fires of this summer and the heat of this winter in Siberia could be related to each other. The CO2 from those fires would have gone around the globe already, right? So could there be some other effect? Like maybe darker soil from the fires that soaked up more heat? Or maybe the peat fires? Just wondering.
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SimonF92

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #758 on: January 20, 2020, 01:34:04 PM »
https://twitter.com/zlabe

Quote
Bering Sea #seaice extent fell by more than 20% in the past week and as of January 18th was at 67% of the 1981-2010 average. Lack of ice is especially notable off the Chukotka coast. Quite likely to see expansion of the extent upcoming week. #akwx #Arctic
@Climatologist49



Given the conditions of the Bering in early 2012, extensive cover would just seem like a bad omen.

Its probably the one place id be genuinely concerned if extent was high, even though that's just superstition and not backed by any evidence..
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #759 on: January 20, 2020, 04:23:18 PM »
Given the conditions of the Bering in early 2012, extensive cover would just seem like a bad omen.

Its probably the one place id be genuinely concerned if extent was high, even though that's just superstition and not backed by any evidence..
When sea ice forms, salt is released. Does the formation of more sea ice in the Bering sea increase the salinity of the water that is flowing through the Bering strait in winter?

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10872-017-0453-x
« Last Edit: January 20, 2020, 04:31:44 PM by Freegrass »
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Paul

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #760 on: January 20, 2020, 05:38:59 PM »
https://twitter.com/zlabe

Quote
Bering Sea #seaice extent fell by more than 20% in the past week and as of January 18th was at 67% of the 1981-2010 average. Lack of ice is especially notable off the Chukotka coast. Quite likely to see expansion of the extent upcoming week. #akwx #Arctic
@Climatologist49



Given the conditions of the Bering in early 2012, extensive cover would just seem like a bad omen.

Its probably the one place id be genuinely concerned if extent was high, even though that's just superstition and not backed by any evidence..

Extent was high in 2013 also and sea ice by September was much higher than 2012. Although 2012 dropped to record lows, the high sea ice extent in the Bering may of helped the Chuckchi ice to drop slowly, of course the condition of that ice and the ice at higher latitudes was poor but imo, it had an impact of slowing the retreat down in the Chuckchi Sea during the Summer.

Conclusion would be ice extent in the Bering is not the be all and end all inn terms of the numbers come September but I much rather have an extensive sea ice in the Bering to slow down the warmth of the Pacific heading into the basin.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #761 on: January 21, 2020, 12:23:50 AM »
Cool tool. I don't think I saw this here before.

Bering Sea: Salinity Climatological Fields

https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/OC5/PACIFIC2009/showclimatmap.pl?MapType=bs
« Last Edit: January 21, 2020, 10:02:31 AM by Freegrass »
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icefree

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #762 on: January 23, 2020, 04:04:35 AM »
I'm new and not up to speed on all the intricacies of the Arctic melting and refreezing but wouldn't the salinity concentrations and the dilution of the Arctic seas from the vast amounts of freshwater entering the Arctic from melting glaciers (especially Greenland) cause a significant increase in ice extent since the less saline water freezes more easily (higher temperature) than the albeit thinner and more prone to melting the next melt season?

Wouldn't the less saline fresh melt water tend to float above the higher salinity water which is denser and sinks lower and contribute to larger extent areas following strong melt seasons?

Sort of like a two steps forward and then one step back kind of progression?

Wouldn't that explain this years unusual refreeze as well as 2012?

binntho

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #763 on: January 23, 2020, 06:49:25 AM »
I'm new and not up to speed on all the intricacies of the Arctic melting and refreezing but wouldn't the salinity concentrations and the dilution of the Arctic seas from the vast amounts of freshwater entering the Arctic from melting glaciers (especially Greenland) cause a significant increase in ice extent since the less saline water freezes more easily (higher temperature) than the albeit thinner and more prone to melting the next melt season?

Well as for the melting Greenland glaciers, along the east coast, the coastal currents would push any meltwaters southwards, then north into Baffin bay where any meltwaters from the Western coast would be added to it and then make it's way west and south again and into the Atlantic. Since this happens in summer, any meltwaters from Greenland would long have disappeared from Arctic waters before areas like northern Baffin start to refreeze (late October / early November)

I'd guess that any glacial meltwater from other sources reaching the Arctic Ocean itself would be hugely dwarfed by the fresh-water rivers that drain into it.

So no - I wouldn't expect glacial meltwaters to have any noticeable effect on ice extent by itself.
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #764 on: January 23, 2020, 01:44:28 PM »
Environment Canada says a very high chance of below average temperatures from 27 Jan to Feb 24 in the far north of Canada including the CAA, Baffin Bay and the blob south of Greenland.

Adds to the prospects of the impressive gains in sea ice extent and area in recent weeks continuing. (And to increases in sea ice thickness?)
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Feeltheburn

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #765 on: January 25, 2020, 07:12:28 AM »
Aren't the poles the only places where the planet can lose its heat? I'm thinking that if there would be more ice, that the Arctic would be colder and able to release more heat into space, overall cooling the planet, and giving us more time before the feedback loops kick in and the climate runs out of our control.

The Arctic is heating up faster than any other place on earth, so cooling it down seems logical to me. And I don't think this would heat up the rest of the planet more.

My guess is that, based on my understanding of thermodynamics, more heat is lost in areas with combinations of highest temperature and lowest relative humidity (e.g. deserts, which typically have the highest spread between high and low temperatures on any given day). In such areas there is the greatest differential between the heat source (earth) and heat sink (outer space), coupled with the lowest combination of greenhouse gases (water being by far the most important).
« Last Edit: January 25, 2020, 07:19:00 AM by Feeltheburn »
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Fractious

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #766 on: January 25, 2020, 07:17:58 AM »
This is great news
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #767 on: January 25, 2020, 11:38:12 AM »
January 13-24.

2019.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #768 on: January 25, 2020, 06:08:22 PM »
Aren't the poles the only places where the planet can lose its heat? I'm thinking that if there would be more ice, that the Arctic would be colder and able to release more heat into space, overall cooling the planet, and giving us more time before the feedback loops kick in and the climate runs out of our control.

The Arctic is heating up faster than any other place on earth, so cooling it down seems logical to me. And I don't think this would heat up the rest of the planet more.

My guess is that, based on my understanding of thermodynamics, more heat is lost in areas with combinations of highest temperature and lowest relative humidity (e.g. deserts, which typically have the highest spread between high and low temperatures on any given day). In such areas there is the greatest differential between the heat source (earth) and heat sink (outer space), coupled with the lowest combination of greenhouse gases (water being by far the most important).

If the poles were the only places to lose heat then nights wouldn't be cooler than days anywhere except the poles. All the surface of Earth is losing heat all the time, more rapidly where the Earth is warmer.

To illustrate FTBs point: From Wikipedia - on diurnal temperature ranges:

...diurnal temperature variations typically range from 10 or fewer degrees in humid, tropical areas, to 40-50 degrees in higher-elevation, arid to semi-arid areas, such as parts of the U.S. Western states' Intermountain Plateau areas...

Illustrating how daytime heating from insolation is lost to space, and how humidity (water vapor acting as a GHG) slows down that heat loss.


Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #769 on: January 25, 2020, 06:42:41 PM »
An interesting new paper concerning the Arctic surface energy balance from the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Utah:

Midwinter Arctic leads form and dissipate low clouds

Also here's an introductory overview:

https://phys.org/news/2020-01-arctic-sea-ice-clouds.html

Quote
In the wintertime Arctic, cracks in the ice called "leads" expose the warm ocean directly to the cold air, with some leads only a few meters wide and some kilometers wide. They play a critical role in the Arctic surface energy balance. If we want to know how much the ice is going to grow in winter, we need to understand the impacts of leads.

The extreme contrast in temperature between the warm ocean and the cold air creates a flow of heat and moisture from the ocean to the atmosphere. This flow provides a lead with its own weather system which creates low-level clouds. The prevailing view has been that more leads are associated with more low-level clouds during winter. But University of Utah atmospheric scientists noticed something strange in their study of these leads: when lead occurrence was greater, there were fewer, not more clouds.
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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #770 on: January 25, 2020, 06:46:01 PM »
Nice to see you around, Jim! :)
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #771 on: January 25, 2020, 07:06:32 PM »
Nice to see you around, Jim! :)

Likewise BK!

Whilst I'm here perhaps I might repost this A-Team animation from the MOSAiC thread?



Quote
The overall motion of the icepack over the last three weeks is better described as a 'Siberian Slam' against the CAA than TransPolar Drift. Note the boundary between FYI and MYI remains quite distinct and easy to track.
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #772 on: January 26, 2020, 08:03:03 AM »
Last week in temperature hindsight:
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Pavel

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #773 on: January 26, 2020, 11:18:29 AM »
The snow cover extent still well below average while the sun comes back.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #774 on: January 26, 2020, 01:46:20 PM »
uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh, atlantic side, dec1-jan25

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #775 on: January 26, 2020, 06:09:17 PM »
My guess is that, based on my understanding of thermodynamics, more heat is lost in areas with combinations of highest temperature difference and lowest relative humidity (e.g. Arctic regions, which typically have the highest spread between high and low temperatures on any given year). In such areas there is the greatest differential between the heat source (earth) and heat sink (outer space), coupled with the lowest combination of greenhouse gases (water being by far the most important).

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #776 on: January 27, 2020, 12:19:52 AM »
Ice around the Lena delta looking more fragile compared to the last two years.
https://go.nasa.gov/3aKTfvC 2018-2020   click to run
20180128 was clearer

The Walrus

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #777 on: January 27, 2020, 03:29:19 AM »
The strongly positive arctic oscillation is likely responsible for both the diminished northern hemisphere snow cover and enhanced arctic sea ice.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #778 on: January 27, 2020, 12:05:54 PM »
Sunday to Sunday ice drift map.
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #779 on: January 27, 2020, 12:12:55 PM »
Sunday to Sunday Fram export via SAR.
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binntho

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #780 on: January 27, 2020, 01:12:11 PM »
My guess is that, based on my understanding of thermodynamics, more heat is lost in areas with combinations of highest temperature difference and lowest relative humidity (e.g. Arctic regions, which typically have the highest spread between high and low temperatures on any given year). In such areas there is the greatest differential between the heat source (earth) and heat sink (outer space), coupled with the lowest combination of greenhouse gases (water being by far the most important).

So you quote Feeltheburn almost verbatim, only changing the paranthesis:

(e.g. deserts, which typically have the highest spread between high and low temperatures on any given day). 

The point being? But since you seem to dispute Feeltheburn's post (albeit in a rather underhand way), I was tempted to do a Google search on "where does earth lose most heat" and the first link gave me this underlying image, from Nasa.

Seems that Feeltheburn's understanding was spot on, at least for the month of September 2008. And I'd be very much surprised if the Arctic (or the Antarctic for that sake) would show enough heat loss in their respective summers to trump the tropics or the mid-latitude desert bands on an annual basis.
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ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #781 on: January 27, 2020, 01:21:04 PM »
https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1221476994849873921

Quote
Bering Sea #seaice extent from NSIDC is slowly increasing, but remains below the long term average & last year. But extent isn't everything. Sustained cold weather near the Alaska coast since mid-Dec helping to thicken and stabilize nearshore ice. #akwx #Arctic @Climatologist49


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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #782 on: January 27, 2020, 02:59:29 PM »
https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1221476994849873921

Quote
Bering Sea #seaice extent from NSIDC is slowly increasing, but remains below the long term average & last year. But extent isn't everything. Sustained cold weather near the Alaska coast since mid-Dec helping to thicken and stabilize nearshore ice. #akwx #Arctic @Climatologist49

Which, of course, will all melt out this season and, more than likely, early.

gandul

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #783 on: January 27, 2020, 05:58:48 PM »
My guess is that, based on my understanding of thermodynamics, more heat is lost in areas with combinations of highest temperature difference and lowest relative humidity (e.g. Arctic regions, which typically have the highest spread between high and low temperatures on any given year). In such areas there is the greatest differential between the heat source (earth) and heat sink (outer space), coupled with the lowest combination of greenhouse gases (water being by far the most important).

So you quote Feeltheburn almost verbatim, only changing the paranthesis:

(e.g. deserts, which typically have the highest spread between high and low temperatures on any given day). 

The point being? But since you seem to dispute Feeltheburn's post (albeit in a rather underhand way), I was tempted to do a Google search on "where does earth lose most heat" and the first link gave me this underlying image, from Nasa.

Seems that Feeltheburn's understanding was spot on, at least for the month of September 2008. And I'd be very much surprised if the Arctic (or the Antarctic for that sake) would show enough heat loss in their respective summers to trump the tropics or the mid-latitude desert bands on an annual basis.
Yas, yas. Ftb gave an eg. of daily cycle of extreme radiative heat gain/loss, I thought the Arctic qualifies for the same in an annual cycle. Probably variation of this annual cycle is more impactful over the planetary weather/climate though than daily cycle on desertic areas.

Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #784 on: January 27, 2020, 08:12:00 PM »
Sunday to Sunday ice drift map.
Thanks Blumenkraft.  Can you also post the drift anomaly?

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #785 on: January 27, 2020, 08:16:42 PM »
Where would i get that, Glen?
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #786 on: January 27, 2020, 09:45:53 PM »
Bering Sea looking beautiful at the moment. Extent racing away to the sunlit uplands :)
https://go.nasa.gov/3aPDKSW  jan22-26, click to run

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #787 on: January 27, 2020, 09:47:40 PM »
At the start of the year the SSTs over the West Spitzbergen Current were relatively low. Lowest I can recall for some time.

Comparison between the Norwegian Met Ice Service chart on 6th and 24th January shows that the warmer SSTs (over 4 C) have surged northwards since then.

« Last Edit: January 28, 2020, 12:58:14 AM by Niall Dollard »

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #788 on: January 27, 2020, 09:59:46 PM »
Bering Sea looking beautiful at the moment. Extent racing away to the sunlit uplands :)


Ice edge on 26th was about 25 km away from St. Matthew Island.

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #789 on: January 27, 2020, 11:08:35 PM »
My guess is that, based on my understanding of thermodynamics, more heat is lost in areas with combinations of highest temperature difference and lowest relative humidity (e.g. Arctic regions, which typically have the highest spread between high and low temperatures on any given year). In such areas there is the greatest differential between the heat source (earth) and heat sink (outer space), coupled with the lowest combination of greenhouse gases (water being by far the most important).

So you quote Feeltheburn almost verbatim, only changing the paranthesis:

(e.g. deserts, which typically have the highest spread between high and low temperatures on any given day). 

The point being? But since you seem to dispute Feeltheburn's post (albeit in a rather underhand way), I was tempted to do a Google search on "where does earth lose most heat" and the first link gave me this underlying image, from Nasa.

Seems that Feeltheburn's understanding was spot on, at least for the month of September 2008. And I'd be very much surprised if the Arctic (or the Antarctic for that sake) would show enough heat loss in their respective summers to trump the tropics or the mid-latitude desert bands on an annual basis.
It's frustrating that I can't remember exactly what it was all about. Could it be that it was something that in winter the arctic loses a lot of heat because of a thinner atmosphere?

The polar vortex had something to do with it also I think.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #790 on: January 28, 2020, 01:33:12 AM »
In the absence of the mid January PIOMAS update I'm being moaned at over at "Climate Etc.".

Hence please feel free to compare and contrast:
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Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #791 on: January 28, 2020, 01:54:24 AM »
Jim -
     Both Thickness and Extent seem to be much less in 2020 than 2019 in those images.  But the December PIOMAS Volume data show Dec 31 2019 only about 3% below Dec 31 2018.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg242997.html#msg242997

 The dramatic difference in Thickness and Extent in those maps look like a lot more than a 3% Volume decline. 

    Or is the January PIOMAS going to deliver a bombshell?  But that also seems unlikely given robust Extent gains in recent  weeks.  And there has only been 19 days between Dec 31, 2019 and the Jan. 19, 2020 graph. 

   CryoSat vs. PIOMAS difference doesn't explain it either, since both images are CryoSat.  Something is not lining up.   The only explanation I can think of is a re-calibration of CryoSat.  But I don't have any info pointing to that. 

   Bottom line:  the 2019 to 2020 difference in those maps is too huge to believe.  If it is real then it looks the Arctic is going to get blitzed in the 2020 melt season.

    Or am I missing/misinterpreting something?
« Last Edit: January 28, 2020, 01:59:54 AM by Glen Koehler »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #792 on: January 28, 2020, 02:21:47 AM »
Or am I missing/misinterpreting something?

Well, since I grabbed the 2019 data earlier today rather than a year ago that map is based on a "reanalysis", whereas the 2020 one is based on "operational" data. That may have something to do with it?

I'll have to do a lot more digging to confirm that, or otherwise. However that will have to wait for another day, since it's now well past my normal bedtime (UTC)!

Should anyone else be interested in investigating the data are at:

ftp://ftpsrv2.awi.de/sea_ice/product/cryosat2_smos/v202/nh/
« Last Edit: January 28, 2020, 08:59:01 AM by Jim Hunt »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

binntho

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #793 on: January 28, 2020, 09:05:43 AM »
Yas, yas. Ftb gave an eg. of daily cycle of extreme radiative heat gain/loss, I thought the Arctic qualifies for the same in an annual cycle. Probably variation of this annual cycle is more impactful over the planetary weather/climate though than daily cycle on desertic areas.
Well you thought wrong, the annual arctic cycle is not "more impactful" and if you think otherwise, plese substantiate.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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gandul

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #794 on: January 28, 2020, 10:50:16 AM »
Yas, yas. Ftb gave an eg. of daily cycle of extreme radiative heat gain/loss, I thought the Arctic qualifies for the same in an annual cycle. Probably variation of this annual cycle is more impactful over the planetary weather/climate though than daily cycle on desertic areas.
Well you thought wrong, the annual arctic cycle is not "more impactful" and if you think otherwise, plese substantiate.
Im not good at rhetoric, I leave that to you.
deserts have the same albedo in daytime than 40 years ago, Arctic does not, it absorbs much more heat in its daytime (summer). Deserts lose similar heat during night than they used to 40 years ago. Arctic night (Winter) is very complex, some winters it acts as an alleviation of the record heat accumulated in summer; some recent winters, however, the venting has been blocked by excess humidity, leading to a poor ice recovery in winter.
FTB gives a good example. But you want to convince who of what? Of course the Arctic radiative heat cycle is more important for climate, at least as a manifestation of its change but also cause it feeds back in atmospheric and oceanic changes.
Just look at Fall temperatures in Alaska for the last 40 years and STFU.

binntho

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #795 on: January 28, 2020, 11:20:43 AM »
Yas, yas. Ftb gave an eg. of daily cycle of extreme radiative heat gain/loss, I thought the Arctic qualifies for the same in an annual cycle. Probably variation of this annual cycle is more impactful over the planetary weather/climate though than daily cycle on desertic areas.
Well you thought wrong, the annual arctic cycle is not "more impactful" and if you think otherwise, plese substantiate.
Im not good at rhetoric, I leave that to you.
deserts have the same albedo in daytime than 40 years ago, Arctic does not, it absorbs much more heat in its daytime (summer). Deserts lose similar heat during night than they used to 40 years ago. Arctic night (Winter) is very complex, some winters it acts as an alleviation of the record heat accumulated in summer; some recent winters, however, the venting has been blocked by excess humidity, leading to a poor ice recovery in winter.
FTB gives a good example. But you want to convince who of what? Of course the Arctic radiative heat cycle is more important for climate, at least as a manifestation of its change but also cause it feeds back in atmospheric and oceanic changes.
Just look at Fall temperatures in Alaska for the last 40 years and STFU.
Gandul, we are getting somewhat off-topic here.

I am not trying to convince anybody of anything. But I read Feeltheburn's original posting and had nothing to add, I thought it sounded very sensible.

You did not, fair enough, but instead of saying so in your own words, you took Feeltheburn's words and posted as your own, but with an important change. So you used a dishonest method to imply disagreement, rather than saying so directly, posting no evidence of your own and giving no arguments for your position.

Your above posting is disjointed, without any real substance, illogical as well as rude. So let's stop this silly off-topic argument, and I hope that when next I see a posting from you, it will be both polite and well considered.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

oren

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #796 on: January 28, 2020, 11:34:02 AM »
Jim -
     Both Thickness and Extent seem to be much less in 2020 than 2019 in those images.  But the December PIOMAS Volume data show Dec 31 2019 only about 3% below Dec 31 2018.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg242997.html#msg242997

 The dramatic difference in Thickness and Extent in those maps look like a lot more than a 3% Volume decline. 

    Or is the January PIOMAS going to deliver a bombshell?  But that also seems unlikely given robust Extent gains in recent  weeks.  And there has only been 19 days between Dec 31, 2019 and the Jan. 19, 2020 graph. 

   CryoSat vs. PIOMAS difference doesn't explain it either, since both images are CryoSat.  Something is not lining up.   The only explanation I can think of is a re-calibration of CryoSat.  But I don't have any info pointing to that. 

   Bottom line:  the 2019 to 2020 difference in those maps is too huge to believe.  If it is real then it looks the Arctic is going to get blitzed in the 2020 melt season.

    Or am I missing/misinterpreting something?
The extra volume this year is in the Barents (and the Kara), as can be seen in Jim's image based on Cryosat/SMOS, as well as in Wipneus' diff map based on PIOMAS. The missing volume this year is next to the CAA, again seen both in Cryosat/SMOS data and in PIOMAS. These two sources are very different (one is mostly measured, one is mostly modeled), but are in general agreement. I do not expect a January bombshell, but the melting season could become interesting should there be an early meltout of the Barents.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #797 on: January 28, 2020, 11:46:16 AM »
The extra volume this year is in the Barents (and the Kara)

I've done my due diligence this morning (UTC), and there's still a total absence of any ice >= 4m thick to be seen on the most recent CS2/SMOS reanalysis. Chapter and verse over at:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/01/wheres-the-thickest-arctic-sea-ice-gone/

including this (hopefully?) explanatory video:



Quote
Not unexpectedly that meant that ice in the northern Barents Sea was slow to melt out in the summer of 2019, whilst after a fast start the melt in the Beaufort Sea suffered a “brief hiatus” in June before ultimately melting out almost completely.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

El Cid

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #798 on: January 28, 2020, 01:32:24 PM »
"I do not expect a January bombshell, but the melting season could become interesting should there be an early meltout of the Barents."

Absolutely right. With weakness almost everywhere save the Barents, an early meltout there would leave the whole Arctic very vulnerable...

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #799 on: January 28, 2020, 01:35:20 PM »
The sea of Okhotsk doesn't feature much in this thread but affects extent at this time of year. Here is a comparison using uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh from 2013-2020, jan27
added Bering Sea comparison
combined them
« Last Edit: January 28, 2020, 01:54:51 PM by uniquorn »