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Wildcatter

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1000 on: March 09, 2020, 12:51:46 AM »
Nullschool 3-13

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/03/13/0300Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-62.25,81.29,461/loc=-171.519,70.953

Nullschool 3-13 ~9 hours later, with clouds

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/03/13/1800Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_cloud_water/orthographic=-62.25,81.29,461/loc=-168.000,62.477

(In the box in the lower left, you can adjust settings, the << >> arrows under "Control" are hour and day selectors, TCW = cloud water)

Influx of heat + wind and clouds coming over Bering, moving from Chukchi to Beaufort. Kara also covered with clouds and winds. Bering really gets hit starting on 3-12.

The ice just north of Greenland looks like it's going to get a bit of a rough start, with winds picking up there and along the Lincoln + even parts of CAA on 3-10. The winds, in general, look like they could really strain the ice. Looks like they're going to try their hardest to shove the East CAB into the Barents/Fram/Greenland Sea.

It's hard to say if we've hit "max extent" already, if you see the temps + wind. There's also going to be cloud cover which can usually skew extent numbers a bit. Regardless, I think we can all agree that this setup is noticeably worse than any temporary gain in "extent" will be.

The +NAO/+AO this season has led to these big cyclones all winter season, except for a small break in late Feb/Early March. Now we see not only Atlantic cyclones entering the Arctic, but a Pacific cyclone that gathers steam in the Sea of Okhotsk and rolls over into the Arctic. I've seen differing projections on the NAO for the 2nd half of March, so not sure if the Atlantic portion keeps the same cycle. But, in the short-term, the ice is about to get hit from both sides on the onset of melt season.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1001 on: March 09, 2020, 02:16:49 AM »
I was just about to post the same thing. Not looking good there in the Bering strait. It's gonna get its pipes cleaned. Look at all the energy that's entering the arctic.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/03/13/0300Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_precipitable_water/orthographic=-44.82,94.80,1323/loc=-168.957,66.088
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PragmaticAntithesis

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1002 on: March 09, 2020, 02:32:46 PM »
I was just about to post the same thing. Not looking good there in the Bering strait. It's gonna get its pipes cleaned. Look at all the energy that's entering the arctic.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/03/13/0300Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_precipitable_water/orthographic=-44.82,94.80,1323/loc=-168.957,66.088

I agree. It looks like a Pacific is about to take a beating. However, that wind has to go somewhere and that somewhere seems to be the Atlantic.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/03/13/0300Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_precipitable_water/orthographic=-9.26,79.92,1323/loc=-2.813,79.927

Maybe the Atlantic sea ice extent will continue growing while Pacific starts to melt early?
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1003 on: March 09, 2020, 02:47:50 PM »
Don't forget the sea temperatures there, PA. If the ice is getting pushed south into warm waters, it will just melt away.


Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1004 on: March 09, 2020, 07:24:12 PM »
I'm gonna go out on a limb here and call peak ice. Just look at these storms that'll be hitting both sides of the ice pack in a few days from now. Surely that'll make an end to the ice growth, no?

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/03/13/1200Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-45.02,91.24,1746/loc=-130.573,74.542
« Last Edit: March 09, 2020, 07:31:17 PM by Freegrass »
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jdallen

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1005 on: March 09, 2020, 10:02:33 PM »
I'm gonna go out on a limb here and call peak ice. Just look at these storms that'll be hitting both sides of the ice pack in a few days from now. Surely that'll make an end to the ice growth, no?

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/03/13/1200Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-45.02,91.24,1746/loc=-130.573,74.542
You may well be right, but I'm not quite ready to call it.

The weather is suggestive, but clouds will both help and harm at the same time.  At higher latitudes it will keep heat in.  At lower, it will keep burgeoning sun out.  Outcomes will also be affected by the payload - how much moisture is transported along with it's latent heat, to where.
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1006 on: March 09, 2020, 10:40:02 PM »
The weather is suggestive, but clouds will both help and harm at the same time.  At higher latitudes it will keep heat in.  At lower, it will keep burgeoning sun out.  Outcomes will also be affected by the payload - how much moisture is transported along with it's latent heat, to where.
I agree, but I don't think the temperature really matters. I'm talking about ice destruction and stacking because of wind. The question will be if it's still cold enough to refreeze all that open water that these storms will create.

Don't forget that the ice in the Chukchi sea will be very weak because of all the inflow of warm water from the pacific during winter. I'm curious to see what'll happen there. I think it's gonna be carnage.

I'm almost up to a full year of watching the ice in the arctic now, so this month is still new to me. How unusual are these storms?
« Last Edit: March 10, 2020, 01:03:04 PM by Freegrass »
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PragmaticAntithesis

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1007 on: March 10, 2020, 11:07:25 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 9th, 2020:
     14,296,768 km2, an increase of 15,184 km2.
     2020 is 10th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 16 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

Ice is increasing again (especially in the area department). I still thing it's reasonably safe to call maximum, but bigger surprises have happened.
A single seed in the right place can sprout an entire forest.

SimonF92

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1008 on: March 10, 2020, 11:23:53 AM »
Bunch of small python Arctic Apps:
https://github.com/SimonF92/Arctic

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1009 on: March 10, 2020, 11:24:00 AM »
If i interpret the weather correctly, the Fram export could be rampant in the upcoming days.

I guess the question at the moment is if the Atlantic water is warm enough to melt the export away quickly enough. If not, a big increase can still happen.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1010 on: March 10, 2020, 12:42:19 PM »
If i interpret the weather correctly, the Fram export could be rampant in the upcoming days.

I guess the question at the moment is if the Atlantic water is warm enough to melt the export away quickly enough. If not, a big increase can still happen.
The melting is strong in this one...

https://go.nasa.gov/2veIFgA
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1011 on: March 10, 2020, 02:25:21 PM »
Seems, snow will be halved in Eurasia in 5 days. Spring is far ahead average.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1012 on: March 11, 2020, 01:55:44 PM »
February 27 - March 10.

2019.

kassy

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1013 on: March 11, 2020, 02:06:44 PM »
Thanks Aluminium! I really like the year to year comparisons you created.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1014 on: March 11, 2020, 02:15:02 PM »
The melting is strong in this one...

Agreed!

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1015 on: March 11, 2020, 05:28:17 PM »
I haven't made one of these in a long time, but I couldn't just let these storms pass by without one. Hope you like it!

Last 24h + Five day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
« Last Edit: March 12, 2020, 02:40:40 PM by Freegrass »
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Neven

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1016 on: March 11, 2020, 08:58:56 PM »
15 MB is a bit much for a GIF, FG... Can you make it smaller somehow?

Edit: Thanks!
« Last Edit: March 12, 2020, 12:42:07 AM by Neven »
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Pavel

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1017 on: March 12, 2020, 09:36:23 AM »
The spring is coming half month earlier than usuall. There is more snow depth in the higher latitudes but it may start to melt earlier

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1018 on: March 12, 2020, 09:57:46 AM »
I haven't made one of these in a long time

Just a tip, Freegrass: If you scale it down first and then optimize, you'll likely get a smaller file size than if you do it the other way around. If you already knew, just ignore me. ;)

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1019 on: March 12, 2020, 12:03:17 PM »
I haven't made one of these in a long time

Just a tip, Freegrass: If you scale it down first and then optimize, you'll likely get a smaller file size than if you do it the other way around. If you already knew, just ignore me. ;)
The problem is that it's 48 frames. It's a lot of information. The best way to do this is really to make those videos again, and then upload them to Youtube or somewhere else. The problem with Youtube is that uploading it there completely destroys the quality. So I need to find a better way to do this. Maybe I'll just upload the file into a folder and then share the file.

But don't worry! I'm not gonna make daily video's like this again. I'm just gonna do it with special weather events. I'm getting ready to move back to SE-Asia, to go back into the temple and meditate...Time to find some peace in this crazy world...

Edit: That GIF was 2Mb and very small, autorunning. So I replaced it with a larger 2Mb video file. I won't be posting these videos daily again, so I hope a 2Mb video file from time to time isn't a problem for anyone. Please don't reply to this message here! Send me a PM if you have any comments. Thanks.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2020, 02:49:05 PM by Freegrass »
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PragmaticAntithesis

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1020 on: March 12, 2020, 02:20:21 PM »
VISHOP is back up.

Loss of -4400 km^2 on March 10th.
Loss of -5667 km^2 on March 11th.

Current extent 14,286,701 km^2.

One more day of losses and I think it will be time to call maximum. Are others in agreement?
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1021 on: March 12, 2020, 04:08:12 PM »
Count me in agreement, PragmaticAntithesis.
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1022 on: March 12, 2020, 04:15:38 PM »
If it's a century drop, count me in as well. :P

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1023 on: March 12, 2020, 04:17:46 PM »
I think we'll see a little growth for one more day before carnage kicks in. So I say lets do it! It's already melting in some places, isn't it?  ;D
« Last Edit: March 12, 2020, 04:28:40 PM by Freegrass »
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1024 on: March 12, 2020, 06:45:29 PM »
Here are some graphs telling me the max might not be in yet.

Edit: 600 milliseconds and not a millisecond more, B. C.! ;)
« Last Edit: March 12, 2020, 09:09:13 PM by blumenkraft »

be cause

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1025 on: March 12, 2020, 09:06:13 PM »
could you slow your graphics a bit .. please bl .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1026 on: March 12, 2020, 10:01:45 PM »
Freegrass, i think B.C. meant my GIF. I've already changed it to a slower going one. :)

grixm

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1027 on: March 12, 2020, 10:24:27 PM »
Has anyone notices that there is a large "valley" in the Fram strait in the DMI thickness map? If that's accurate then the ice near the pole could be unusually weak this year.


The Walrus

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1028 on: March 12, 2020, 10:56:09 PM »
Here are some graphs telling me the max might not be in yet.


You may be correct.  Over the past two decades, 14 years have seen a peak prior to this date.  In ten of those years, the ice grew to exceed that peak, while the other four resulted in a secondary, but smaller peak.  The temperature data north of 80 suggest further growth.  Too early to call a max.

Wildcatter

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1029 on: March 13, 2020, 05:32:22 AM »
Extent is now down about 180k from it's peak.

Cracks showing along coasts of Bering on both sides, up ESS and down Chukchi and Beaufort. Cracks + chunks peeling off coasts in ESS and Laptev.

Okhotsk ice detaching and looks like a bunch of rubble, Hudson looks like it's starting to get dinged up.

With the forecast, I'd be surprised if we passed the former peak extent, even with the cold in the Barents + Fram/Greenland Sea (the killing fields) and dispersion, drift.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1030 on: March 13, 2020, 07:18:28 AM »
Has anyone notices that there is a large "valley" in the Fram strait in the DMI thickness map? If that's accurate then the ice near the pole could be unusually weak this year.
That looks so scary... Think away all the blue, and what we lost last year, and there won't be much ice left... There's also no "arm" of thick ice protecting the CAP in the Chukchi sea, so the inflow of hot pacific water will penetrate deep into the CAP this year.

And we've already got storms destroying a lot of ice right now. So I'm gonna go on record in saying that 2020 will be a lot worse than 2012.

The only unknown this year is the impact of lower CO2 emissions because of the crisis. But that'll probably be insignificant ...
« Last Edit: March 13, 2020, 07:28:25 AM by Freegrass »
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PragmaticAntithesis

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1031 on: March 13, 2020, 07:56:26 AM »
The only unknown this year is the impact of lower CO2 emissions because of the crisis. But that'll probably be insignificant ...

It is worth noting that sun-dimming aerosols being removed from the atmosphere will likely cause a temperature increase before we see any significant cooling caused by the lowered CO2.
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1032 on: March 13, 2020, 08:00:57 AM »
Indeed! It takes years/decades for CO2 to unfold its full potential.

Within days/weeks the sun-dimming aerosols are washed out of the atmosphere.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1033 on: March 13, 2020, 08:30:16 AM »
It is worth noting that sun-dimming aerosols being removed from the atmosphere will likely cause a temperature increase before we see any significant cooling caused by the lowered CO2.
I completely forgot about that. That is so true! And not only that, 9-11 showed that less air travel also increases the temperature.

Do we dare to say BOE?
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PragmaticAntithesis

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1034 on: March 13, 2020, 11:10:49 AM »
Do we dare to say BOE?

I'm going to go out on a limb and say no. A BOE would require extent to be ~4Msqkm below the new normal come September, which I don't see happening even if we have a brutal melt season. Variability caused by weather is usually on the order of <1Msqkm.
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El Cid

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1035 on: March 13, 2020, 12:56:00 PM »
This winter was already like 2006/7, so I had thought that things would get serious during summer. Then I saw the state of the ice from the Laptev to the Kara. Then came global aerosol collapse.

Arctic Ice probably needs a miracle to avoid the bullet this year

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1036 on: March 13, 2020, 01:25:28 PM »
This winter was already like 2006/7, so I had thought that things would get serious during summer. Then I saw the state of the ice from the Laptev to the Kara. Then came global aerosol collapse.

Arctic Ice probably needs a miracle to avoid the bullet this year
I don’t think the BOE bullet will hit, but I think it will come much closer this year.
« Last Edit: March 13, 2020, 02:13:46 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
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RikW

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1037 on: March 13, 2020, 02:02:58 PM »
If Corona keeps going on as it does now, i'd see a huge economic slow-down coming months, especially in production facilities (too much people sick, no work@home options) and air-travel (travel restrictions to prevent spreading). Thus much lower aerosols, much higher temperatures during melt season. A semi-sudden world-wide temperature increase of 1 degrees because of lower aerosols would surprise me, but that would probably do weird things with weather if it is for several months. And we need an extraordinary melting season for blue ocean. We have the ingredients this year that could trigger such a season. But I'd say chances are still low for that to happen.

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1038 on: March 13, 2020, 03:27:17 PM »
A semi-sudden world-wide temperature increase of 1 degrees because of lower aerosols would surprise me, but that would probably do weird things with weather if it is for several months.

That would pull us over the 2oC threshold.
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1039 on: March 13, 2020, 03:42:41 PM »
A semi-sudden world-wide temperature increase of 1 degrees because of lower aerosols would surprise me, but that would probably do weird things with weather if it is for several months.

That would pull us over the 2oC threshold.
A 1°C increase in global temperatures would be an increase in the arctic of around 3°C? In some very sick way, I do hope it happens this year. The world needs a good scare it seems before they wake up. Hopefully the world will come together now to fight the virus, and stay together to fight climate change. If we do go above 2°C, that should be scary enough. But I doubt that this will happen.

A gap has opened up in the Chukchi sea.
https://go.nasa.gov/2vi6iEQ
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The Walrus

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1040 on: March 13, 2020, 05:10:00 PM »
If Corona keeps going on as it does now, i'd see a huge economic slow-down coming months, especially in production facilities (too much people sick, no work@home options) and air-travel (travel restrictions to prevent spreading). Thus much lower aerosols, much higher temperatures during melt season. A semi-sudden world-wide temperature increase of 1 degrees because of lower aerosols would surprise me, but that would probably do weird things with weather if it is for several months. And we need an extraordinary melting season for blue ocean. We have the ingredients this year that could trigger such a season. But I'd say chances are still low for that to happen.

I think the opposite will occur.  During the last recession, the decrease in travel and consumption resulted in CO2 emissions falling 11%.    While some claim that the flattening of the temperature curve during this timeframe was just noise in the data, the timing corresponds with the global recession, and the sharp increase thereafter with the global expansion. 

https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms8714

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1041 on: March 13, 2020, 05:43:05 PM »
2020 Lower Polar Vortex shrank by 8.5 million square kilometers compared to 2012 , 2020 has smallest area every year since

Quote
~The lower in altitude Polar Vortex area right above surface of Earth is warming fast
~ Even compared to 2016,  El-Nino driven warmest year in history
~It is unquestionably clear,  warming at the core of the vortex is from over all thinner sea ice

Link >> https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2020/03/2020-lower-polar-vortex-shrank-by-85.html

philopek

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1042 on: March 13, 2020, 08:01:49 PM »
Perhaps a few more things to consider:

a) Solar minimum has been reached, new max expected for 2024/25, that's not that far out hence the increase curve should be steep.

https://electroverse.net/the-sun-has-been-spotless-for-224-days-in-2019/

b) Above 80N temps at this time of the year have ZERO impact on extent development, contrary to what was said upthread. The Periphery is warming up quickly and the snow cover is low and I doubt that the March-Sun allows for significant cooling below 65N other than intermittent cold and warmth that is wind/weather driven.

If we keep in mind that last years second lowest was reach during the year with the lowest number of sun-spots in a long time, not only due to the minimum of the cycle but also compared to many previous cycles, we could be in for some nasty surprises even seen under the pretense that not much good can be expected anyway.

This in addition to what was already mentioned up-thread

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1043 on: March 13, 2020, 09:08:53 PM »
Do we dare to say BOE?

I'm going to go out on a limb and say no. A BOE would require extent to be ~4Msqkm below the new normal come September, which I don't see happening even if we have a brutal melt season. Variability caused by weather is usually on the order of <1Msqkm.
Attached is a graph of the JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Monthly Averages since 1979 and the deviations from the linear trend.

You will see that the maximum -ve departure from the trend was in 2012 at just over 1.5 million KM2. 2nd was 2007 with an anomaly of -1.2 million km2.

A BOE (using BOE defined as sea ice extent of 1 million km2) would require melting of about 3 million km2 below the trend value for 2020 of about 4 million Km2, double the previous maximum deviation.

Data is such a bummer
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PragmaticAntithesis

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1044 on: March 13, 2020, 09:50:56 PM »
I'm going to go out on a limb and say no. A BOE would require extent to be ~4Msqkm below the new normal come September, which I don't see happening even if we have a brutal melt season. Variability caused by weather is usually on the order of <1Msqkm.
Attached is a graph of the JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Monthly Averages since 1979 and the deviations from the linear trend.

You will see that the maximum -ve departure from the trend was in 2012 at just over 1.5 million KM2. 2nd was 2007 with an anomaly of -1.2 million km2.

Whoops. I defined 'new normal' as the 2010's average instead of using the linear trend, and I forgot that BOEs are <1Msqm rather than no ice at all. At least I got the right idea that year-on-year extent variability is still significantly less than the actual extent?
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1045 on: March 13, 2020, 11:18:27 PM »
Isn't volume the big problem Gerontocrat? What I see on that ice thickness image is a lot of thin ice. So isn't it possible that the ice is so thin now, that we could see a big collapse in area?
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PragmaticAntithesis

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1046 on: March 14, 2020, 12:47:33 AM »
Isn't volume the big problem Gerontocrat? What I see on that ice thickness image is a lot of thin ice. So isn't it possible that the ice is so thin now, that we could see a big collapse in area?

According to PIOMAS's volume trends (see attached), a true BOE (no ice at all) is just over 2 standard deviations below what one would expect. Very unlikely, but not impossible. Also worth noting is that the graph doesn't seem to swing wildly (only 9 swings of >1σ, 5 of which were consecutive zig-zagging, no swings of >2σ), so 2019's volume being almost exactly on the trend line seems to bode well for now.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1047 on: March 14, 2020, 10:36:03 AM »
<snip>
A gap has opened up in the Chukchi sea.
https://go.nasa.gov/2vi6iEQ

Not sure about the rest of it, but while not atypical it's a new phenomena and likely symptomatic of just how fragile the pack is.

2017 looked very similar but more severe like it had been developing longer.

2013 had a crack, 2011 had a smaller gap, not as well developed.

It should be thick land-fast ice.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1048 on: March 14, 2020, 10:44:26 AM »
<snip>

I think the opposite will occur.  During the last recession, the decrease in travel and consumption resulted in CO2 emissions falling 11%.    While some claim that the flattening of the temperature curve during this timeframe was just noise in the data, the timing corresponds with the global recession, and the sharp increase thereafter with the global expansion. 

https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms8714

Disagree.

CO2 emmissions falling wouldn't cause that kind of pause.  You still have approximately the same  CO2 concentration, and small twitches of a few PPM aren't going to trigger dramatic year over year variations in climate.  The differences in forcing are too small.

It would have to be something else, quite probably unrelated to the change in fossil fuel consumption.  I think the first place I would look would be ENSO, and after that, precipitation patterns.
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1049 on: March 14, 2020, 11:07:13 AM »
It's a bit too cloudy to tell but there doesn't appear to be much sign of refreeze yet on the open leads east of Wrangel Island.
Chukchi Sea, https://go.nasa.gov/3aMQDfY (contrast),mar14, uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh, feb13 inset.
click for full resolution
« Last Edit: March 14, 2020, 11:22:55 AM by uniquorn »