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Are you hoping for / and or expecting, a global civilisational collapse?

I both hope and expect that global civilisation will collapse as soon as possible
3 (4.7%)
Yes, I hope that global civilisation will collapse as soon as possible
3 (4.7%)
I expect that global civilisation will collapse within the next few decades
13 (20.3%)
I do not expect global civilisation to collapse, nor do I hope for it to happen in the foreseeable future.
16 (25%)
I hope that global civilisation will not collapse in the foreseeable future
8 (12.5%)
I do not expect global civilisation to collapse in the foreseeable future
4 (6.3%)
I expect that global civilisation will collapse within the next few decades, but I hope that it won't happen.
17 (26.6%)

Total Members Voted: 57

Author Topic: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?  (Read 20101 times)

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« Reply #100 on: August 28, 2019, 07:20:53 PM »
I don't expect it to "collapse" to near zero, but to maybe be cut in half or so this century.

Bruce Steele

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Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« Reply #101 on: August 28, 2019, 08:52:04 PM »
Tom, Half undoubtably would not be evenly distributed so more collapse for some than others.

If I were to predict I would say we will keep the petal to the metal , fracking even though it might need government subsidies , arctic drilling , continued deforestation, NKP agriculture, and it will go on far past the few decades many of us here will afford to watch. I think we will sail past 560ppm and start thinking about what the next doubling will bring. I won't believe anything different until the Keeling curve is bell shaped.

TerryM

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Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« Reply #102 on: August 29, 2019, 04:08:52 AM »
Tom, Half undoubtably would not be evenly distributed so more collapse for some than others.

If I were to predict I would say we will keep the petal to the metal , fracking even though it might need government subsidies , arctic drilling , continued deforestation, NKP agriculture, and it will go on far past the few decades many of us here will afford to watch. I think we will sail past 560ppm and start thinking about what the next doubling will bring. I won't believe anything different until the Keeling curve is bell shaped.
Ramen !


My most immediate fear is that some idiot takes the Nuclear Option, and that other idiots feel compelled to respond in kind. That could occur tomorrow and it would be game over for civilization by next week.
Think of a Truman following The Trump. :-\


Ignoring that very real possibility - since it's as out of our control as a giant asteroid hit - we need to look at Gerontocrat's charts and decide whether continuing on our "slow death" path is how we want to proceed.


Solar, wind, nuclear, hydro and more efficient transportation has been tried for the last 4 decades, and 40 years later we're further behind than we were. Trying more of the same, but with real commitment, didn't work then and there's no reason to believe it will work today or tomorrow.
Does this path equate with insanity? - probably.


A big war, one that kills lots of people while destroying most factories, pipelines, highways and industrial production means activating MICs and greatly increases risks of nuclear annihilation, but it might affect the Keeling curve. :P


Sabotage on a massive scale, attacking every community's industrial, manufacturing, transportation, and energy facility might not provoke an atomic reaction, might have some small chance of success at lowering emissions, and might kill off fewer of us than our present course.


Neo-Luddites would be imprisoned, killed, hated, reviled, and just might save some significant portion of civilization.


Offer some better solution - please!

What we're doing isn't working.
Terry

bbr2314

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Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« Reply #103 on: August 29, 2019, 05:45:20 AM »
I think a nuclear exchange and then a sharp fall is the most likely scenario and I think it will be restricted to the Indian subcontinent.

The USA and Russia do not face existential threats from the other. Yes, they could blow each other up ten times over, but the populations in both countries are relatively content on a global comparative scale, and there is no imminent potential of widespread water shortages.

China teeters on the brink of potential danger but I don't think it has any existential threats either even if it has greater exposure to this possibility than the US and Russia.

India and Pakistan, on the otherhand, are a clusterf*ck and the situation is worsening in two ways. Not only are both of their populations still booming, but the aquifers etc are dwindling to zero-day status in many regions. WORSE, India potentially has Pakistan in a stranglehold due to its upstream location relative to the rivers that run from the Himalayas.

This means India is an existential threat to Pakistan and by proxy, Pakistan is an existential threat to India. I think there will come a tipping point where multiple nuclear weapons are used, possibly dozens or more, and both governments collapse, resulting in two to four billion total global deaths (most drawn out) in the exchange and resulting winter / famine.

nanning

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Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« Reply #104 on: August 29, 2019, 06:34:18 AM »
<snip>
(I've got a system with my bosses, if they need me to shut up in meetings they scratch their noses vigourously. I'll take it, nanning, that your nose is now well scratched.)

Thanks for your honesty binntho.
Pity that your 'system' doesn't seem to work here as well as it does with your bosses.  ::)
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

nanning

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Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« Reply #105 on: August 29, 2019, 06:54:58 AM »
From Terry,
Quote
What we're doing isn't working.

Goodmorning Terry,
I think there is no WE working on the problem. No unity, no real leaders.
Neo-liberalist insane dogma gave us [sarc]wonderful[/sarc] individualism and globalisation. Without a strong unity 'we' are powerless.

We, the population, have long ago surrendered our powers (voting, influencing) to an immutable system. All so-called leaders are a manifestation, a consequence, a symptom of that system (with some exceptions).

In my view, this system, this algorithm is a run-away capitalist system of 'milking' the consumerists and plundering all Earth's resources (including all other life, including the same consumerists). Blind profits and ROI.

This 'algorithm' cannot be stopped imo.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

binntho

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Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« Reply #106 on: August 29, 2019, 06:56:06 AM »
<snip>
(I've got a system with my bosses, if they need me to shut up in meetings they scratch their noses vigourously. I'll take it, nanning, that your nose is now well scratched.)

Thanks for your honesty binntho.
Pity that your 'system' doesn't seem to work here as well as it does with your bosses.  ::)

And sarcasm clearly doesn't either.  :o
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

oren

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Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« Reply #107 on: August 29, 2019, 11:53:35 AM »
I've just finished reading about 50 posts here. Excruciating.
I see bbr is his usual sweet self. Kind of forgot the Mongol empire there, I would imagine someone with such views would look highly on Genghis Khan. Half the known world indeed. And yes, some of it survived, in case anybody is unaware of the history of Beijing.

Binntho, I disagree with your definition of civilizational collapse. A sharp decrease is societal complexity, carrying with it a decrease in population, science, technology, infrastructure (roads, sewers, aqueducts, bridges), knowledge, and many other factors, is indeed a civilizational collapse. There is a huge gap between the Roman empire and subsistence farming, falling just half that gap is collapse enough.

If we don't have free will, why bother posting here? Ah yes, we are compelled.

binntho

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Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« Reply #108 on: August 29, 2019, 12:07:04 PM »
Binntho, I disagree with your definition of civilizational collapse. A sharp decrease is societal complexity, carrying with it a decrease in population, science, technology, infrastructure (roads, sewers, aqueducts, bridges), knowledge, and many other factors, is indeed a civilizational collapse. There is a huge gap between the Roman empire and subsistence farming, falling just half that gap is collapse enough.

The "fall" of the Western Roman Empire does not constitute a civilisational collapse. An empire lost the lesser half of it's area to Christian, literate and Romanized former allies. That is not collapse.

Anything that drops us half-way is not a total collapse. If we can maintain half the current population we will still have 99% of the technological resources, knowledge and structural complexity as before.

Quote
If we don't have free will, why bother posting here? Ah yes, we are compelled.

It's amazing how even the staunchest scientific enthusiasts still hang on to free will, when it's obvious that all we know about the physics of the natural world clearly shows that there can be no such thing.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

kassy

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Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« Reply #109 on: August 29, 2019, 02:03:08 PM »
There is no free will - therefore no justice and no fairness (reaches for the beer with one hand while covering his eyes with the other, muttering  "... the horror ... the horror ...")

If that gets you out of parking tickets it´s real.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

binntho

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Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« Reply #110 on: August 29, 2019, 02:32:25 PM »
There is no free will - therefore no justice and no fairness (reaches for the beer with one hand while covering his eyes with the other, muttering  "... the horror ... the horror ...")

If that gets you out of parking tickets it´s real.

Well it's been tried and even with some success! But since free will seems to be a fundamental aspect of our societal structure, don't expect very many judges willing to accept the lack thereof.

Besides, it can always be waffled away with vague definitions.

Som recent "but we do have free will" articles I've read in the popular scientific press basically confuse "free will" with "free agency" - i.e. if determinism can be shown not to be true, then free will is the default conclusion.

But in reality (and usually admitted somewhere in the text), what they mean by "free will" is in fact unpredictable, or perhaps even random, behaviour, i.e. "free agency" .
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

oren

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Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« Reply #111 on: August 29, 2019, 03:31:02 PM »
It's amazing how even the staunchest scientific enthusiasts still hang on to free will, when it's obvious that all we know about the physics of the natural world clearly shows that there can be no such thing.
Of course, physical free will is impossible, but heuristically it's still there. Your mind believes it can choose freely, and what it chooses obligates it to take responsibility for the choice. One can't hide behind the lack of free will and say "I had to do it, sorry, no free will". So for all practical purposes it doesn't matter.

Quote
The "fall" of the Western Roman Empire does not constitute a civilisational collapse. An empire lost the lesser half of it's area to Christian, literate and Romanized former allies. That is not collapse.
I believe you are wrong historically, it was much more than just changing ownership of the territory. But I'm unable to follow up with research at the moment, so I'll not argue this further (unless someone wishes to help).

binntho

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Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« Reply #112 on: August 29, 2019, 03:45:56 PM »
It's amazing how even the staunchest scientific enthusiasts still hang on to free will, when it's obvious that all we know about the physics of the natural world clearly shows that there can be no such thing.
Of course, physical free will is impossible, but heuristically it's still there. Your mind believes it can choose freely, and what it chooses obligates it to take responsibility for the choice. One can't hide behind the lack of free will and say "I had to do it, sorry, no free will". So for all practical purposes it doesn't matter.

Sounds about right.

Quote
Quote
The "fall" of the Western Roman Empire does not constitute a civilisational collapse. An empire lost the lesser half of it's area to Christian, literate and Romanized former allies. That is not collapse.
I believe you are wrong historically, it was much more than just changing ownership of the territory. But I'm unable to follow up with research at the moment, so I'll not argue this further (unless someone wishes to help).

A couple of good books from my shelves if you want to study this very exciting period in more detail:

"The Fall of the West" by Adrian Goldsworthy (2009) is perhaps the most detailed.

"The Fall of the Roman Empire: A New History" by Peter Heather (2007) is perhaps the most revealing, in that it moves away from the traditional "collapse" imagery.

"The Late Roman Empire" by Averil Cameron (1993) is a traditional but short and precise description of the last few centuries of Rome in the West.

"The Inheritance of Rome: A History of Europe from 400 to 1000" by Chris Wickham (2009) is perhaps most relevant to this discussion, showing as it does how the civilisation of Western Europe did not collapse at all, merely shifted a bit and then moved on.

"The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire" by Edward Gibbon (1776-1788) is of course the classical one, packed full of detail and a stylistic masterpiece. Still valid after all these years!

And then of course, one of the books that has influenced my thinking on civilisational development the most, "Why the West Rules for Now" by Ian Morris (2010). A true masterpiece!

EDIT:
The points I made earlier, that the Roman Empire simply lost it's lesser half to Christian, literate, Romanized former allies is easy to substantiate from several of these books.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

SteveMDFP

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Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« Reply #113 on: August 29, 2019, 04:39:55 PM »
I thought this presentation was quite interesting, on the subject of past civilization collapse:

Eric Cline | 1177 BC: The Year Civilization Collapsed

binntho

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Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« Reply #114 on: August 29, 2019, 04:57:06 PM »
I don't really have the attention span to watch this video, but given that it's about 1177BCE I'm guessing that it's about the invasion of the Sea Peoples in general, and the fall of Ugarit in particular (though I'm not so sure if Ugarit was in 1177 - perhaps it was one of the many battles that the Egyptians recorded).

Historically this was a very exciting time, with the fall of the bronze-age city states in Mycaene and various other places in the Levant (though not in Egypt or places further east) and the heralding of the new iron age.

Whether there was an actual "civilisational collapse" might be debatable, the Myceanean societal structure certainly disappears. Probable causes are climate change and volcanic eruptions or a mix of the two.

And there was certainly no "global" or "continental" collapse of civilisation. City states continued to flourish and technological and cultural knowledge took great leaps forwards, e.g. the use of iron, the invention of the alphabet, and the invention of the leak-proof rock cisterns that enabled the precursors of the Israelites to settle in the central Highlands of Palestine.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

wili

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Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« Reply #115 on: August 29, 2019, 07:39:51 PM »
"...invention of the alphabet..."

Yeah, after they lost the knowledge of writing for a few hundred years.
« Last Edit: August 29, 2019, 08:08:53 PM by wili »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

kassy

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Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« Reply #116 on: August 29, 2019, 09:37:46 PM »
Historically this was a very exciting time,

Nobody told them about lack of free will yet?

no free will - therefore no justice and no fairness

And no responsibility. You can always do more even if you just want to relax after the kids went out to study or got married of or whatever. You were born at the wrong time for a nice retirement.

That is more fait accompli then lack of free will.

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

bbr2314

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Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« Reply #117 on: August 29, 2019, 09:45:47 PM »
I've just finished reading about 50 posts here. Excruciating.
I see bbr is his usual sweet self. Kind of forgot the Mongol empire there, I would imagine someone with such views would look highly on Genghis Khan. Half the known world indeed. And yes, some of it survived, in case anybody is unaware of the history of Beijing.

Binntho, I disagree with your definition of civilizational collapse. A sharp decrease is societal complexity, carrying with it a decrease in population, science, technology, infrastructure (roads, sewers, aqueducts, bridges), knowledge, and many other factors, is indeed a civilizational collapse. There is a huge gap between the Roman empire and subsistence farming, falling just half that gap is collapse enough.

If we don't have free will, why bother posting here? Ah yes, we are compelled.
I would argue that the Mongols were not hegemonic, they did conquer most of the known world, however it was exceedingly brief and collapsed very quickly. More importantly, they didn't exactly "spread" civilization in the way the Romans, British, or Americans have -- they did the opposite, in fact.

binntho

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Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« Reply #118 on: August 30, 2019, 07:11:08 AM »
"...invention of the alphabet..."

Yeah, after they lost the knowledge of writing for a few hundred years.

Who lost the knowledge of writing for a few hundred years? The Myceaneans lost the knowledge of writing for ever, no other societies lost any knowledge during this time.

And it's dubious whether the Mycaeneans lost anything either - they may have simply moved away (the "Sea Peoples") and learned new tricks. The Philistines have been conclusively shown to have an Aegean Greek (i.e. Mycaenean) origin and they are the only Sea Poeple that we can track today, since the Egyptians wrote all about how they settled on the coast of modern day Gaza and northwards.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

binntho

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Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« Reply #119 on: August 30, 2019, 07:21:39 AM »
Historically this was a very exciting time,

Nobody told them about lack of free will yet?

no free will - therefore no justice and no fairness

And no responsibility. You can always do more even if you just want to relax after the kids went out to study or got married of or whatever. You were born at the wrong time for a nice retirement.

That is more fait accompli then lack of free will.

I'm not sure where you are going here Kassy. Do you claim that we have free will? And if so, do you claim that causality can be influenced by mental processes?

True (or pure) free will requires that not only do physical events have the normal physical causes, but that physical events can also have "mental" or rather "spiritual" causes. This follows from the fact that all human behaviour is in the end a matter of physical processes (i.e. a series of physical events) and free will believers claim that mental activity can somehow evade the physical causality of these physical processes to produce "willed" outcomes.

("physical" here taken to mean the natural world as governed by the laws of physics and chemistry)

But your arguments are very typical of so many I've seen that try to argue away the "free will" conundrum by making up strawmen and ridiculing them.

So let's put it plainly: Whether or not free will exists, human behaviour and experience will not change one iota.

A putated lack of free will does does not (as you and many others seem to understand it) negate any human behaviour or experience.

A theory that claims lack of free will does, on the other hand, have to explain how all human behaviour and experience results without free will.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

TerryM

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Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« Reply #120 on: August 30, 2019, 08:13:55 AM »
"...invention of the alphabet..."

Yeah, after they lost the knowledge of writing for a few hundred years.

Who lost the knowledge of writing for a few hundred years? The Myceaneans lost the knowledge of writing for ever, no other societies lost any knowledge during this time.

And it's dubious whether the Mycaeneans lost anything either - they may have simply moved away (the "Sea Peoples") and learned new tricks. The Philistines have been conclusively shown to have an Aegean Greek (i.e. Mycaenean) origin and they are the only Sea Poeple that we can track today, since the Egyptians wrote all about how they settled on the coast of modern day Gaza and northwards.


When Santorini blew (1650 BCE) it took a number of Mediterranean cultures with it. I wouldn't surprise me to learn that some written languages went extinct some distance from the site. Some decades ago I'd have been able to make an educated guess as to which scripts in which regions. I once had a deep interest in the nautical craft of the region & those from Thera were of particular interest. (42 "fixed" "oars" with no sails, but making enough headway that a large steering oar was required)?
Too much water under the bridge at this time.


wili
Who was it that you were thinking of?


Thanks
Terry

binntho

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Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« Reply #121 on: August 30, 2019, 09:03:32 AM »
"...invention of the alphabet..."

Yeah, after they lost the knowledge of writing for a few hundred years.

Who lost the knowledge of writing for a few hundred years? The Myceaneans lost the knowledge of writing for ever, no other societies lost any knowledge during this time.

And it's dubious whether the Mycaeneans lost anything either - they may have simply moved away (the "Sea Peoples") and learned new tricks. The Philistines have been conclusively shown to have an Aegean Greek (i.e. Mycaenean) origin and they are the only Sea Poeple that we can track today, since the Egyptians wrote all about how they settled on the coast of modern day Gaza and northwards.

When Santorini blew (1650 BCE) it took a number of Mediterranean cultures with it. I wouldn't surprise me to learn that some written languages went extinct some distance from the site. Some decades ago I'd have been able to make an educated guess as to which scripts in which regions.


The only real contender here would be the Minoan (Cretan) linear A script which was in use from c.a. 2500 to 1450 BCE, and has been found on the mainland (i.e. in Greece, Turky and Israel) as well as on Crete.

The Myceaneans learned linear A from the Minoans and evolved it into their own script called linear B around 1450 BCE. The Minoan culture was eventually eclipsed by the Myceanean and disappaered around the same time, i.e. during the tumultuous 12th century.

So any "civilisational collapse" resulting from Santorini seems to be a red herring?
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

TerryM

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Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« Reply #122 on: August 30, 2019, 09:22:57 AM »
Lets see what wili had in mind. My recollection is that the eastern shores of the Mediterranean were harshly affected, with depths of tufa marking the event. Kingdoms fell, Dynasties ended and civilizations were overrun.
Even ship and sail designs changed through the whole of the Mediterranean. Definitely a time of tumult as many powers that had survived the cataclysm were sacked while still weakened.



Apparently studies as recently as 2006 have greatly magnified the severity of the explosion.


Was it Linear B that was found to be a precursor to Greek?
Terry

binntho

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Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« Reply #123 on: August 30, 2019, 09:31:25 AM »
Lets see what wili had in mind.

I don't think he had any particular culture in mind.

Quote
My recollection is that the eastern shores of the Mediterranean were harshly affected, with depths of tufa marking the event.

That's probably very true. But that does not imply collapse anywhere. Volcanic eruptions are not all that disruptive in general, although local effects can be harsh.

Even a foot or two of tufa does not mean the end of the world, and agricultural yields go up marketly in the following years.

Quote
Kingdoms fell, Dynasties ended and civilizations were overrun.

Sounds poetic, but there are no records of this from written history in the years following the explosion of Santorini. In fact, the Minoan culture that was directly hit by the eruption kept going strong for another couple of hundred years.

Quote
Even ship and sail designs changed through the whole of the Mediterranean.
As they have been doing for the last tens of thousands of years.

Quote
Definitely a time of tumult as many powers that had survived the cataclysm were sacked while still weakened.

Making things up as you go is perhaps fine for writing novels, but this smells more like what the bull left behind.
Quote
Was it Linear B that was found to be a precursor to Greek?
Terry

What a strange question. How can a script be a precursor to a language? If you knew any history of the ancient Mediterranean you would know that the Mycaeneans spoke ancient Greek, and since Linear B was their script, one would assume that they wrote in their language.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

TerryM

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Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« Reply #124 on: August 30, 2019, 09:47:21 AM »
I'll limit myself to 2 of your bullet points.


Ship and sail designs remain amazingly stable over time.
This wasn't one culture that made rather radical changes, this was many changes in a short period of time throughout the Mediterranean basin and beyond.


Precursor - or related as a father or grandfather. My recollection is that one of the scripts was finally deciphered when it's relationship to the later Greek language became evident.


I'm glad you've learned to read wili's intent so accurately. I've been reading his posts for years and haven't achieved this foresight. ::)


Terry

binntho

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Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« Reply #125 on: August 30, 2019, 09:53:47 AM »
Precursor - or related as a father or grandfather. My recollection is that one of the scripts was finally deciphered when it's relationship to the later Greek language became evident.

I'm amazed at your willingness to continue to write "from recollection". And again, the script had no "relationship" to the later Greek language.

But it was indeed deciphered when Ventris and Chadwick realized that the language that the script was written in was indeed a precursor to classical Greek.

Quote
I'm glad you've learned to read wili's intent so accurately. I've been reading his posts for years and haven't achieved this foresight. ::)

It's not really that hard. When you write bold statements in one-liners without backup or evidence the changes are that you are making things up.

As is evident from your previous posts. Making things up as you go along is really not very conclusive conducive to a healthy debate.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

Killian

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Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« Reply #126 on: August 31, 2019, 04:44:44 PM »
Where is the evidence for societies working well with "less skewered wealth distribution"? In essence this means everyone is poor.

With an extremely limited concept of "poor," yes. With a sophisticated one reflecting the best of being human, no.

At this time "rich" or even "comfortable" means:

* Inequality
* Living close to personal (self, family) collapse
* Debt
* Wealthy people making the rules, e.g. 70% of laws favoring the wealthy previous 3 to 4 decades in the U.S.
* Wealth of the richest rising vastly for 4 decades
* Real income of the bottom 97% or so stagnant last four decades.
* Destruction of the environment via waste > pollution
* Destruction of the environment by direct alteration
* Destruction of the environment by increasing heat stress
* Billions hungry
* Billions living in wretched conditions

And on an on.

Being "poor" means, in intact regenerative (the only ones are aboriginal) communities:

* Enough to eat
* A home
* Cooperation
* Personal autonomy
* Virtually no hierarchy
* Egalitarian decision-making
* Sharing > Commons, so no rich, no poor, and no sense of those words in the way you use the concept here
* Few to no mental health issues
* Rare, if any, punishment for behavior
* Little directed/organized education; learning in situ
* Happy, intelligent, confident children and people

Etc.

You may want to reconsider what you think "poor" means considering the future that is coming.

Killian

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Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« Reply #127 on: August 31, 2019, 05:11:48 PM »
Or do they coddle their citizens, churning out obedient comfortable potatoes of humans with no real thoughts or passions or drives on their own, while relying on hordes of immigrant laborers who are simultaneously destroying their societies from the inside out?

This sort of thinking makes engagement a complete waste of time. It represents very deep ideological underpinnings, most typically from an Authoritarian type thinking style, which i not amenable to alternative input.

That's a polite way of saying I find it both very much in error and unpalatable.

Interesting that some of the happiest of industrialized nations are demonized like this, no?

My thoughts on all this later.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« Reply #128 on: September 21, 2019, 12:35:00 AM »
You might get your wish:
Yes, the Climate Crisis May Wipe out Six Billion People
https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2019/09/18/Climate-Crisis-Wipe-Out/
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But on Aug. 15, in a memorable session of the BBC’s HardTalk, Hallam irritated multiple cultural nerves by claiming, on the basis of “hard science,” that six billion people will die as a result of climate change in coming decades.

More specifically, our ruling elites’ inaction and lies on climate change will lead to climate turmoil, mass starvation and general societal collapse in this century. Normally unflappable HardTalk host, Stephen Sackur, just couldn’t wrap his mind around Hallam’s unyielding assertions.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« Reply #129 on: November 16, 2020, 03:47:35 PM »
How Do You Know When Society Is About to Fall Apart?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/magazine/societal-collapse.html
Quote
In “The Collapse of Complex Societies,” Tainter makes a point that echoes the concern that Patricia McAnany raised. “The world today is full,” Tainter writes. Complex societies occupy every inhabitable region of the planet. There is no escaping. This also means, he writes, that collapse, “if and when it comes again, will this time be global.” Our fates are interlinked. “No longer can any individual nation collapse. World civilization will disintegrate as a whole.”

jens

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Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« Reply #130 on: May 20, 2021, 12:01:00 AM »
I have no reason to hope for a civilizational collapse (neither to be invested in hoping that it would remain - it's a neutral matter to me), but it will happen anyway. Laws of nature. It would collapse even without climate change. Because then it would happen due to resource depletion. Just mathematics.

morganism

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Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« Reply #131 on: August 11, 2023, 01:22:07 AM »
(finally out in book form, and a bit more upbeat than the Argintinian guy...)

Practical Doomsday

Whether you're wrestling bears in the wilderness, struggling to stay safe online, or shopping for the right home insurance policy, Practical Doomsday will take you on an engrossing, mind-bending, and data-packed journey through the world of sensible emergency preparedness.

With its emphasis on flexible risk management and financial resiliency, the goal of the book is not to weave survivalist fantasies or plumb the depths of conspiratorial thought. In fact, I want to reclaim the concept of prepping from the bunker-dwelling prophets of doom. "


https://lcamtuf.coredump.cx/prep/

vox_mundi

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Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« Reply #132 on: August 11, 2023, 05:25:17 PM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« Reply #133 on: September 02, 2023, 11:05:44 PM »
Burning Man Attendees Advised to 'Shelter In Place,' Conserve Food and Water Due to Heavy Rain, Flooding
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna103127

https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2023/sep/02/burning-man-festival-mud-trapped-shelter-in-place

Tens of thousands of “burners’” at the Burning Man festival have been told to stay in the camps, conserve food and water and are being blocked from leaving Nevada’s Black Rock desert after a slow-moving rainstorm turned the event into a mud bath.

Organizers responding to the unusual weather indicated the closures could endure, as local reports described the conditions at the festival as “treacherous” with “thick, slimy mud clung to shoes and anything else it touched”.

... The weather-related disruptions have caused suspension of the cleaning and emptying of thousands of portable toilets. Event organizers have said more rain was expected through Sunday before the festivals ends on Monday.

--------------------------------------------------

... since BM is a rain-out, there's always Wasteland Weekend ...

The World’s Largest Post-Apocalyptic Festival
https://www.wastelandweekend.com/



https://www.wastelandweekend.com/wastelandworldcarshow/



... gyrocopter pilots needed; bring your own Dinki-Di (or a spoon)
« Last Edit: September 02, 2023, 11:16:24 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

morganism

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Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« Reply #134 on: September 03, 2023, 10:07:27 AM »
Ha, i thought it was in the Coober Pedy !

Just N of Edwards Air base is cool. If going i should go by the Mojave Air and Spaceport !

(boneyard only open 1 saturday a month i guess)

https://www.tripadvisor.com/Attraction_Review-g32725-d10098100-Reviews-Mojave_Air_and_Space_Port-Mojave_California.html#

morganism

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Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« Reply #135 on: November 19, 2023, 08:20:14 AM »
Harvard and the Making of the Unabomber                                         (June 2000, the Atlantic)

A series of purposely brutalizing psychological experiments may have confirmed Theodore Kaczynski’s still-forming belief in the evil of science while he was in college.

(...)
Because human beings must conform to the machine,

    our society tends to regard as a “sickness” any mode of thought or behavior that is inconvenient for the system, and this is plausible because when an individual doesn’t fit into the system it causes pain to the individual as well as problems for the system. Thus the manipulation of an individual to adjust him to the system is seen as a “cure” for a “sickness” and therefore as good.

This requirement, the manifesto continues, has given rise to a social infrastructure dedicated to modifying behavior. This infrastructure includes an array of government agencies with ever-expanding police powers, an out-of-control regulatory system that encourages the limitless multiplication of laws, an education establishment that stresses conformism, ubiquitous television networks whose fare is essentially an electronic form of Valium, and a medical and psychological establishment that promotes the indiscriminate use of mind-altering drugs. Since the system threatens humanity’s survival and cannot be reformed, Kaczynski argued, it must be destroyed. Indeed, the system will probably collapse on its own, when the weight of human suffering it creates becomes unbearable. But the longer it persists, the more devastating will be the ultimate collapse. Hence “revolutionaries” like the Unabomber “by hastening the onset of the breakdown will be reducing the extent of the disaster.”

“We have no illusions about the feasibility of creating a new, ideal form of society,” Kaczynski wrote. “Our goal is only to destroy the existing form of society.” But this movement does have a further goal. It is to protect “wild nature,” which is the opposite of technology. Admittedly, “eliminating industrial society” may have some “negative consequences,” but “well, you can’t eat your cake and have it too.”

(snip)
By 1997, however, when Kaczynski's trial opened, the view had shifted. Although psychiatrists for the prosecution continued to cite the manifesto as proof of Kaczynski’s sanity, experts for the defense and many in the media now viewed it as a symptom and a product of severe mental illness. The document, they argued, revealed a paranoid mind. During the trial the press frequently quoted legal experts who attested to Kaczynski’s insanity. Gerald Lefcourt, then the president of the National Association of Criminal Defense Lawyers, said the defendant was “obviously disturbed.” Donald Heller, a former federal prosecutor, said, “This guy is not playing with a full deck.” The writer Maggie Scarf suggested in The New Republic that Kaczynski suffered from “Narcissistic Personality Disorder.”

Michael Mello, a professor at Vermont Law School, is the author of The United States of America vs. Theodore John Kaczynski. He and William Finnegan, a writer for The New Yorker, have suggested that Kaczynski’s brother, David, his mother, Wanda, and their lawyer, Tony Bisceglie, along with Kaczynski’s defense attorneys, persuaded many in the media to portray Kaczynski as a paranoid schizophrenic. To a degree this is true. Anxious to save Kaczynski from execution, David and Wanda gave a succession of interviews from 1996 onward to The Washington Post, The New York Times, and Sixty Minutes, among other outlets, in which they sought to portray Kaczynski as mentally disturbed and pathologically antisocial since childhood. Meanwhile—against his wishes and without his knowledge, Kaczynski insists—his attorneys launched a mental-health defense for their client.

One psychology expert for the defense, Karen Bronk Froming, concluded that Kaczynski exhibited a “predisposition to schizophrenia.” Another, David Vernon Foster, saw “a clear and consistent picture of schizophrenia, paranoid type.” Still another, Xavier F. Amador, described Kaczynski as “typical of the hundreds of patients with schizophrenia.” How did the experts reach their conclusions? Although objective tests alone suggested to Froming only that Kaczynski’s answers were “consistent with” schizophrenia, she told Finnegan it was Kaczynski’s writings—in particular his “anti-technology” views—that cemented this conclusion for her. Foster, who met with Kaczynski a few times but never formally examined him, cited his “delusional themes” as evidence of sickness. Amador, who never met Kaczynski at all, based his judgment on the “delusional beliefs” he detected in Kaczynski’s writing. And Sally Johnson’s provisional diagnosis—that Kaczynski suffered from “Paranoid Type” schizophrenia—was largely based on her conviction that he harbored “delusional beliefs” about the threats posed by technology. The experts also found evidence of Kaczynski’s insanity in his refusal to accept their diagnoses or to help them reach those diagnoses.

Most claims of mental illness rested on the diagnoses of experts whose judgments, therefore, derived largely from their opinions of Kaczynski’s philosophy and his personal habits—he was a recluse, a wild man in appearance, a slob of a housekeeper, a celibate—and from his refusal to admit he was ill. Thus Froming cited Kaczynski’s “unawareness of his disease” as an indication of illness. Foster complained of the defendant’s “symptom-based failure to cooperate fully with psychiatric evaluation.” Amador said that the defendant suffered “from severe deficits in awareness of illness.”

But Kaczynski was no more unkempt than many other people on our streets. His cabin was no messier than the offices of many college professors. The Montana wilds are filled with escapists like Kaczynski (and me). Celibacy and misanthropy are not diseases. Nor was Kaczynski really so much of a recluse. Any reporter could quickly discover, as I did through interviews with scores of people who have known Kaczynski (classmates, teachers, neighbors), that he was not the extreme loner he has been made out to be. And, surely, a refusal to admit to being insane or to cooperate with people who are paid to pronounce one insane cannot be taken seriously as proof of insanity.

Why were the media and the public so ready to dismiss Kaczynski as crazy? Kaczynski kept voluminous journals, and in one entry, apparently from before the bombing started, he anticipated this question.

    I intend to start killing people. If I am successful at this, it is possible that, when I am caught (not alive, I fervently hope!) there will be some speculation in the news media as to my motives for killing. … If some speculation occurs, they are bound to make me out to be a sickie, and to ascribe to me motives of a sordid or “sick” type. Of course, the term “sick” in such a context represents a value judgment. … the news media may have something to say about me when I am killed or caught. And they are bound to try to analyse my psychology and depict me as “sick.” This powerful bias should be borne [in mind] in reading any attempts to analyse my psychology.

Michael Mello suggests that the public wished to see Kaczynski as insane because his ideas are too extreme for us to contemplate without discomfort. He challenges our most cherished beliefs. Mello writes,

    The manifesto challenges the basic assumptions of virtually every interest group that was involved with the case: the lawyers, the mental health experts, the press and politics—both left and right. … Kaczynski’s defense team convinced the media and the public that Kaczynski was crazy, even in the absence of credible evidence … [because] we needed to believe it. … They decided that the Unabomber was mentally ill, and his ideas were mad. Then they forgot about the man and his ideas, and created a curative tale.

Mello is only half right. It is true that many believed Kaczynski was insane because they needed to believe it. But the truly disturbing aspect of Kaczynski and his ideas is not that they are so foreign but that they are so familiar. The manifesto is the work of neither a genius nor a maniac. Except for its call to violence, the ideas it expresses are perfectly ordinary and unoriginal, shared by many Americans. Its pessimism over the direction of civilization and its rejection of the modern world are shared especially with the country’s most highly educated. The manifesto is, in other words, an academic—and popular—cliché. And if concepts that many of us unreflectively accept can lead a person to commit serial murder, what does that say about us? We need to see Kaczynski as exceptional—madman or genius—because the alternative is so much more frightening.
(more)

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2000/06/harvard-and-the-making-of-the-unabomber/378239/


(can't help thinking what the shrinks will decide to use to try and convince us we should just submit to the AI, since it has humanity's best interests at heart. I never met folks that were more screwed up, than those studying abnormal psych. They were trying to figure out why they themselves were so twisted.)
 
p.s. I think this trended up because of the Osama Bin laden manifesto started trending, due to the Gaza horror show. Popped up on Hckr News.